Power of the Black Vote - OBV

7/27/2019 Power of the Black Vote - OBV

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2 Changing Face o Britain

Table of Contents

3 Foreword - Simon Woolley

4-5 Executive Summary

6-7 List o Marginal Seats Measured by BME Impact

8 Voting and turnout

9 Methodology

10 BME Population

11 Individual BME Communities

12 Labours Challenge

13 Conservatives Opportunity

14 Lib Dems Watershed

15 MPs Vulnerable to BME Vote16-63 Analysis o Parliamentary Seats

Operation Black Vote - August 2013

Researched, written and designed by Lester Holloway

Assistance rom Louise Alexander


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Every parliamentary constit-uency in England and Wales- all 573 - are analysed in this

report by comparing the latest

2011 population census data

with the results o the 2010

general election.

This exercise has revealed that 241

constituencies (42 percent) in Eng-

land and Wales have BME electorates

larger than the 2010 majorities o thesitting MP when measured against

the 2011 census and counting only

the voting electorate.

Critically, 168 o these constitu-

encies are in marginal seats which

could probably decide the next Gov-

ernment. These seats are listed on

pages 6-7 along with 37 more which

have BME electorates less than the

MPs majority but where BME voters

can still have a signicant bearingon the election outcome, particu-

larly in a close race. Thereore i the

2015 election is neck-and-neck there

could be 205 constituencies where

the BME vote could heavily inuence

the result.

168 seats equates to over a quarter

(29 percent) o all constituencies in

England and Wales. Thereore almost

one-third o MPs can be voted in or

out depending on the extent that

they, and their party, appeals to BME

voters.

This gure debunks the stereotype

that BME communities are mostly

concentrated in sae Labour seats

and thereore not signicant in

terms o electoral impact. Although

inner city seats do indeed contain a

high proportion BME communities,

the overall picture across England

and Wales is that many BME com-

munities live in swing seats which willorm the key battlegrounds at the orth-

coming election in 2015.

It is accepted wisdom in political circles

that between 100 and 130 seats will de-

termine the result in 2015. That means

the Black vote will undoubtedly have a

major impact.

Many o the 73 sae seats with a BME

electorate larger than the MPs major-

ity are only sae because the sitting MPand their party enjoy the support o the

BME electorate. However traditional

patterns o voting are changing as Brit-

ish-born decendents o immigrants

increasingly make political choices

independent o their parents and

grandparents, so these seats - the

vast majority held by Labour - may

not always remain sae in uture.

This process will almost certainly in-

crease the power o the Black vote

over time as an ever-growing pro-portion become oating voters.

The concept o a Black vote has

been questioned on one level; BME

communities are not homogenious

in their voting patterns. Within each

community and household di-

erent political choices are made,

inuenced by a range o actors in-

cluding general policies o the par-

ties, and issues o the day but also

impacted by socio-economic status,

aith, geography and the extent o

local political activity.

However on another level the con-

cept o a Black vote is credible. The

reputation o each party and, to a lesser

extent, o the individual candidates in

terms o how sympathetic or under-

standing they are towards the particu-lar issues and challenges acing BME

communities in general and specic

race and aith communities has a major

impact on voting.

Policies to specically address dis-

proportionate racial disadvantage

and BME political representation

matter. So while race has been o

just over hal o all seats (285) have a

BME population which is larger than

the majorities o the sitting MPs.

Executive Summary


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Changing Face o Britain 5

principally theresult o two

key actors;

the signicant

increase in the

BME elector-

ate between

the 2001 and

2011 popula-

tion census,

and the act

that the 2010general elec-

tion produced

more marginal

seats because

it was a closer

general elec-

tion than 2005.

A third, less

signicant, ac-

tor is the rise in

Mixed Race vot-ers in marginal

rural and town

c o n s t i t u e n -

cies where their population where,

though relatively small, neverthe-

less has an impact on primarily rural

or semi-rural ultra-marginal seats.

Marginal seats have majorities

o less than 6,000, although a

handul o seats with majorities o

under 7,000 qualiy or this deni-

tion because they have shown a

propensity to swing between di-

erent parties rom one election

to the next, particularly i the seat

changed hands in 2010, or they

are targeted as realistic prospects

by the main challenging party.

Three seats with current majori-

ties o between 7,000 and 10,000

changed between parties in 2010.

o the eight Birmingham seats as

well as both seats in Blackpool,

Brighton, Newport, Northhampton,

Norwich, Oxord, Plymouth, Ports-

mouth and Milton Keynes; two out

o three seats in Coventry, Leicester

and Newcastle; and all three seats in

Southampton. None o these towns

and cities t the mould o beingtypical ly inner city yet they are all

examples o places outside London

where the Black vote could play a

decisive role.

The last OBV study, beore the

2010 election, ound 99 mar-

ginal seats with a BME elector-

ate larger than the MPs majority.

The dramatic rise to 168 seats

today (a 70 percent increase) is

This report has analyised the BMEelectorate; voters who will be aged

18 years and above at the 2015

general election. As the Methdol-

ogy page explains, we have cal-

culated this data on the basis o

the population aged 15 years and

above in the 2011 census.

I we counted the overall BME

population, regardless o their

age, the number o seats where

the BME population exceeds the

MPs majority rises to 286, an in-

crease o 10 percent or 27 seats.

This is a signicant indicator o the

number o constituencies that will

decide uture election results.

Currently 2011 census data or

parliamentary constituencies is

only available or England and

Wales. When Scotland becomes

available Operation Black Voteplan to update this report. It is ex-

pected that this would add more

marginal seats where the BME

electorate is larger than the MPs

majority.

Sae seats: 368

BME ElectorateLarger than Majority: 168

BME Electoratemore than hal

Majority: 37

England & Wales. Electorate only (18 years + at 2015 general election)


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Marginals where BME vote can win it

Marginal seats ranked in order o BME impact measuring the size o MPs 2010 majority against the size

o the BME electorate. Colour-coded by the Party currently holding the seat. BME voters are projected

calculations or the electorate in 2015 based on the 2011 population census (see Methdology, page 9).

69 Oxord East

70 Ipswich

71 Chestereld

72 Burnley

73 Telord

74 Leeds North East

75 Hudderseld

76 Mid Dorset & Poole77 St Albans

78 Plymouth Sutton

79 Hove

80 Derby South

81 Batley & Spen

82 Keighley

83 Peterborough

84 Gloucester

85 Hornsey & W Gn

86 Richmond Park

87 Birmingham Nield

88 Truro & Falmouth

89 Pendle

90 Wakeeld

91 Milton Keynes S

92 Battersea

93 Halesowen & Rley

94 Bury North

95 Harrowg & Knars

96 Bristol East

97 Lincoln

98 Bolton N E

99 Morley & Owood

100 Bristol N W

101 Newport East

102 South Swindon

35 Dewsbury

36 Croydon Central

37 Lancaster & Fleet

38 Feltham & Heston

39 Streatham

40 Tooting

41 Ealing C & Acton

42 Walsall North43 Eltham

44 Sutton & Cheam

45 Manchester Wton

46 Birmingham Yley

47 Hammersmith

48 Poplar & Lhouse

49 Haliax

50 Kingston-Hull N

51 Sherwood

52 Asheld

53 Dagenham & Rham

54 Leicester West

55 Brighton Pavillion

56 Ilord North

57 Islington S & Fbury

58 Wolverhton N E

59 Erith & Tmead

60 Birmingham Erdn

61 Manchester Gort

62 Southampton Test

63 Coventry South

64 Finchley & Gold Gn

65 Leicester South

66 Birmingham S Oak

67 Northampton N

68 Brighton Ktown

1 Hampstead & Kilburn

2 Hendon

3 Thurrock

4 Sheeld Central

5 Oldham E & Sworth

6 Bradord East

7 North Warwickshire

8 Solihull9 Bolton West

10 Brent Central

11 Oxord W & Abdon

12 Southampton Itchen

13 Wolverhampton S W

14 Cardif North

15 Rochdale

16 Norwich South

17 Brentord & Isworth

18 Nottingham South

19 Westminster North

20 Birmingham Edgb

21 Camborne & Rdruth

22 Walsall South

23 Derby North

24 Luton South

25 Watord

26 Stockton South

27 Harrow West

28 Broxtowe

29 Eneld North

30 Birmingham Hall Gn

31 Bedord

32 Harrow East

33 Dudley North

34 Swansea West

Majority: 42

BME Voters: 32,802Majority: 1,526BME Voters: 17,413

Majority: 4,581BME Voters: 21,332

Majority: 106BME Voters: 40,866














Majority: 310

























Majority: 990

































Majority: 269




























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Marginals where BME vote can win it

103 Carshalton & Wton

104 Eneld Southgate

105 Hyndburn

106 Cardif S & Penarth

107 Gedling

108 Cardif Central

109 Crawley

110 Great Grimsby

111 Pudsey

112 Newcastle-Lyme

113 Nuneaton

114 Warwick & Lton

115 Loughborough

116 Portsmouth South

117 Reading West

118 Waveney

119 Warrington South

120 Cheadle

121 Stevenage

122 Hastings & Rye

123 Wirral South

124 Cambridge

125 Bury South

126 Coventry N W

127 Newton Abbot

128 Exeter

129 Colne Valley

130 Northampton S

131 Milton Keynes N

132 Aldershot

133 Amber Valley

134 Wells

135 Newcastle-Tyne E

136 Newport West

137 Aron

138 Stalybridge & Hyde

139 Putney

140 Salord & Eccles

141 Worcester

142 Carlisle

143 Corby

144 Scunthorpe

145 Weaver Vale

146 Morecambe

147 Romsey & Ston

148 Harlow

149 Winchester

150 Eastbourne

151 Burton

152 Bristol South

153 Newcastle N

154 Stoke-Trent S

155 Stroud

156 Dudley South

157 Chelmsord

158 Rugby

159 Colchester

160 Blackpool South

161 City o Chester

162 Plymouth Moor

163 Kingswood

164 Stourbridge

165 City o Durham

166 Guildord

167 Mboro S & Cleve

The next seats are marginal

seats where the BME Electorate

is less than the MPs 2010

majority but where BME voters

can still have an impact on the

2015 result.

168 Heywood & M

169 Worsley & Eccles

170 Eastleigh

171 Bournemouth W

172 St Austell & Newq

173 Cheltenham

174 Chippenham

175 Weston-s-Mare

176 Erewash

177 Dartord

178 Gillingham & Ra

179 S Basildon & E Thur

180 Redditch

181 Chorley

182 Pontypridd

183 Darlington

184 Blackpool N

185 Staford

186 Norwich North

187 Wyre Forest

188 York Outer

189 Chatham & Ayles

190 Bridgend

191 Portsmouth N

192 Somerton & Fr

193 Rossendale & Dar

194 St Ives

195 Hereord & S Herts

196 Wrexham

197 Vale o Clywd

198 Don Valley

199 Taunton Deane

200 Wirral West

201 Great Yarmouth

202 N E Derbyshire

203 Vale o Glamorgan

204 Cannock Chase

205 Torbay









































































































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Voting and turnout:

The BME Challenge

The biggest challenge is to turn the political

power o the Black community into greater

rates o voting and voter registration.

Operation Black Vote has been campaigning 17 yearsto raise the rate o political participation among BME

communities and although signicant progress has

been made there is still a long way to go.

18 percent o BME citizens were not registered to vote

in 2010 compared to seven percent or white residents.

The Online Centre or Ethnicity in Politics reports that

non-registration is as high as 28 percent among Aricans

with the most likely community to register being Paki-

stanis (15 percent).However at election time BME electors are slightly

more likely to turn out than their white counterparts.

The national voter turnout in 2010 was 65.1 percent.

Sel-reported turnout rom BME groups was mostly

higher than the national average: Bangladeshi (75 per-

cent), Pakistani (73), Indian (74), Caribbean (66) and

Arican (60).

OBV plan to join orces with community and aith

leaders in an unprecedented high prole voter regis-

tration drive ahead o the 2015 general election.

It is interesting to note that ormer Conservative Party

donor Lord Ashcrot has spent thousands o pounds

studying the BME vote because Conservatives realised

they cannot win a general election without this sup-port. The experience o the last United States presiden-

tial election, when the Republicans were aced with the

prospect o never winning again without gaining sup-

port o Arican-Americans, is a scenario that will increas-

ingly also apply to Britain. No party can aord to ignore

the BME vote or take it or granted.

Traditionally most BME communities have voted La-

bour although this has been lessening with each gener-

al election. Previously over 90 percent o the BME elec-

torate voted Labour but this was down to 68 percent

at the last election according to the Runnymede Trustreport Ethnic Minority Voting on the 2010 UK General

Election. The same study ound 16 percent supported

the Conservatives and 14 percent the Liberal Demo-

crats.

I current trends continue then uture elections will see

a greater proportion o BME oating voters making choic-

es independent o the historical voting patterns o their

parents or grandparents on general political issues o the

day; whether parties have policies to tackle racial disad-

vantage; and how they are perorming on BME political

representation.


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BME Population

BME-Majority Seats

East Ham 74.4%

Ilord South 73.2

Brent North 70.6

Birrmingham Ladywood 70

Ealing Southall 66.6

Leicester East 65.5

West Ham 62.2

Croydon North 61.6

Birmingham Hall Green 61.3

Birmingham Hodge Hill 61.1

Bradord West 59.6

Brent Central 57.9

Harrow East 57.4

Birmingham Perry Barr 57

Harrow West 56.5

Hayes & Harlington 53.2

Camberwell & Peckham 51.7

Feltham & Heston 51.7

Slough 53.7

Poplar & Limehouse 50.9

Electorate only (18 years and over at 2015

general election)

Analysis o the 2011 Population Census by con-

stituency reveals that over one third o all seats in

England and Wales have a BME population o over

10%, and one in fve MPs represent a constituencywhere over 20% o the population are non-white.

The gures reinorce the size and political inuence o

BME communities. In act will be 20 BME-majority con-

stituencies. This counts the BME electoral however six

more seats are BME majority when taking into account

the overall BME population (Ealing North, Leicester

South, Lewisham Deptord, Edmonton, Bethnal Green

& Bow and Leyton & Wanstead). Three seats have more

than 100,000 BME citizens: East Ham, West Ham and Il-

ord South.

However just three o the 20 BME majority seats - Eal-

ing Southall, Bethnal Green & Bow and Leicester East

- are currently represented by an MP rom a BME back-

ground (in addition, Marsha Singh in Bradord West re-

tired due to ill health ater the 2010 election).

Looking at the overall BME population (all ages) 286

MPs in England and Wales represent seats where the BME

population is 10% or more, while 113 (18%) seats have a

BME population o 20% or more. These statistics reinorce

arguments or greater BME political representation.


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Individual BME Communities

In addition to the 203 marginal seats wherethe BME vote has a signifcant impact on the

result (including 168 marginals where the

BME electorate exceeds the MPs majority)

there are important patterns relating to indi-

vidual communities.

Pakistanis make up the largest BME group in 36

constituencies where the overall BME population

is over 20% o the total population. By the same

measure, Indians are the largest group in

34 such seats and Bangladeshis inour. That means that the main

Asian groups are the dominant

BME communities in 74 seats.

Aricans are the astest-

growing group other than

the Mixed categories.

They are the largest BME

community in 31 seats

where the BME popula-

tion exceeds 20% o the

total. Caribbeans are the

largest group in six seats.

Indian

Indians make up the largest

BME group in 175 constituencies

in England and Wales. O these, 60

are marginal seats. In addition, Indians

are the largest group several sae seats - both

Labour and Conservative - which are believed to

be sae precisely because the sitting MP has the

support o these communities. Thereore the po-

tential impact o Indians could be even greater

than gures suggest. However although Indians

are the largest group in 175 seats they are pro-

portionally less likely to be located in marginals

than some other BME groups.

Pakistani

Pakistanis are the largest BME group in 86 con-

stituencies in England and Wales. O these, over

hal - 45 seats - are marginals. Consequently the

Pakistani community plays a very signicant part

in the outcome o the 2015 general election.

Arican

Aricans are the largest BME group in 75 constit-

uencies. 21 o these are marginals. These gures

represent a signicant increase compared to 2001

Census data. Aricans now make up the largest

BME group in seats traditionally associated with

Caribbeans.

Caribbean

Caribbeans make up the largestBME group in six constituencies,

but only one o these is a mar-

ginal. However in each o the

six the overall BME popula-

tion is over 20% o the to-

tal. In addition, Caribbe-

ans are in second-place

behind Aricans in sev-

eral seats, most o which

are regarded as sae La-

bour seats. However thecategory o Mixed White

& Black Caribbean is the

largest group in 44 constitu-

encies, o which 20 are mar-

ginals. All these seats have a rela-

tively low overall BME population in

primarily Conservative marginal seats,

but the White & Black Caribbean group could

well make the dierence.

ChineseChinese are the largest BME group in 36 seats, 17

o which are marginals. In most o these constitu-

encies the Chinese population is airly moderate

but large enough to make the dierence in key

battlegrounds.

White & Asian / Asian Other

Mixed White & Asians are the largest BME group

in 41 seats, 16 o which are marginals. Asian Oth-

er - believed to include Sri Lankans and Turkish

/ Kurdish - are the largest BME group in 96 con-

stituencies, o which 33 are marginals.


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Amber Valley

Battersea

Bedord

Brentord & Isle

Brighton Kemp

Broxtowe

Burton

Bury North

Cardi North

Carlisle

City o Chester

Corby

Crawley

Croydon Central

Dewsbury

Dudley South

Ealing C & Acton

Eneld North

Eneld Sgate

Finchley & Gold

Gloucester

Halesowen & R

Hampstd & Kilb

Harlow

Harrow East

Hastings & Rye

Hendon

Hove

Ilord North

Ipswich

Keighley

Kingswood

Lancaster & Fld

Lincoln

Loughborough

Milton Keynes N

Milton Keynes S

Morecambe

N Warwickshire

Northampton N

Northampton S

Nuneaton

Pendle

Peterborough

Plymouth Sutton

Putney

Reading West

Rugby

Sherwood

South Swindon

Stevenage

Stockton South

Stourbridge

Stroud

Thurrock

Warrington S

Warwick & Leam

Waverney

Weaver Vale

Wolvmpton SW

Worcester


Other seats where Labour are in second-

place and the BME electorate exceeds the

MPs majority.

Aron (Plaid Cymru)

Birmingham Yardley (LibDem)

Bradord East (LibDem)

Brent Central (LibDem)

Brighton Pavilion (Green)

Burnley (LibDem)

Hornsey & Wood Green (LibDem)

Manchester Withington (LibDem)

Norwich South (LibDem)

Conservative-held marginal (swing) seats with

BME electorates larger than the majority o the

sitting MP where Labour are the second-placed

challenger.

FROM BLUE TO RED?The belie that Labour have a strong hold

over the Black vote - particularly Arican,

Caribbean, Pakistani and Bangladeshi com-

munities - is not as true as it used to be.

Closer analysis reveals Labour could do

much better, and need to i they are to orm

a majority government in 2015.

In the 168 marginal seats identied in this report

with BME electorates larger than the majorities o

the sitting MPs Labour are the second-placed party

in 70 o those seats. 61 o those seats are currently

held by a Conservative MP. Winning these shouldpropel Ed Miliband into Downing Street.

While some o those 70 seats will have larger BME

populations than the MPs majority by virtue o

the act that the MPs majority is particularly small,

there are also many marginal seats with consid-

erable BME populations. For example Bedord

Conservative MPs majority o 1,353 is dwared by

18,916 BME voters. Similarly, the Lib Dem MP in

Birmingham Yardley has a majority o 3,002 and

26,843 BME voters.

I Labour can increase their appeal to BME voters in

Conservative-held marginals they will signicantly

increase their chances o taking power in 2015. But

Labour will have to oer more by way o policies de-

signed to specically appeal to BME communities

than is presently the case.

Labours Challenge








Majority: 310

BME Voters: 7,066
































































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Lib Dem Watershed

Liberal Democrats could go a long way to

consolidating their numbers in the House

o Commons in 2015 i they can win over

the Black vote.

They could potentially win 13 seats rom

the Conservatives in marginal constituencieswhere the BME electorate is larger than the

Conservative MPs 2010 majority.

Nick Cleggs party could also lose 21 MPs in

seats where the BME electorate is larger than

Lib Dem MPs majorities (seven to Labour and

14 to the Conservatives). That means, or the

Lib Dems, it is all to play or.

In addition, the Lib Dems are the second-

placed challenger in 18 Labour marginals

where the BME vote could decide the result.As the Party currently have 56 MPs, these

numbers represent a very signicant portion

o their overall representation in the House o

Commons.

In the past decade the Lib Dems have previ-

ously held ve seats where they are currently in

second place (Guildord, Leicester South, Rich-

mond Park, Truro & Falmouth and Winchester),

and where where BME voters will be instrumen-

tal to winning those back.

For the Lib Dems the outcome in 2015 general

election may depend on whether they can win

back some o the BME support that voted or

them in 2010. That surge - nicknamed Cleggma-

nia - pushed the Lib Dems into touching distance

in many Labour and Conservative seats but their

role as the junior coalition partner may have lost

some o that support.

I they are to achieve this the Lib Dems will

have to break rom their colourblind approach.

Win rom Conservatives

Seats where BME electorate is larger than the sitting MPs majority

Aldershot

Camborne & Red

Colne Valley

Guildord

Harrowgate & Knar

Newton Abbott

Richmond Park

Romsey & Ston N

St Albans

Truro & Falmouth

WatordWinchester

Asheld

Birmingham Hall Gn

Bristol North West

Bristol South

City o Durham

Islington S & Finsb

Kingston-Hull North

Leicester SouthNewcastle-Tyne East

Newcastle-Tyne N

Newport East

Oldham E & Sworth

Oxord East

Oxord W & Abdon

Rochdale

Shefeld Central

Streatham

Swansea West

Carshalton & Wall

Cambridge

Cheadle

Cheltenham

Chippenham

Colchester

EastbourneEastleigh

Mid-Dorset & N Poole

Portsmouth South

Sutton & Cheam

Solihull

St Austell & Nquay

Wells

Birmingham Yadley

Bradord EastBrent Central

Burnley

Hornsey & Wood Gn

Manchester Withn

Norwich South

Marginal seats where the Lib Dems can win

and lose to Labour and the Conservatives.

Majority: 5,586BME Voters: 11,003Majority: 66BME Voters: 1,075Majority: 4,837BME Voters: 10,012Majority: 7,782BME Voters: 7,872Majority: 1,039BME Voters: 3,192

Majority: 523BME Voters: 1,104Majority: 4,091BME Voters: 15,697Majority: 4,156BME Voters: 6,228Majority: 2,305BME Voters: 10,021Majority: 435BME Voters: 1,628Majority: 1,425

BME Voters: 20,765

Win rom Labour

Lose to Labour

Lose to Conservatives



Majority: 3,799

BME Voters: 54,690Majority: 3,274BME Voters: 9,717Majority: 4,734BME Voters: 5,840Majority: 3,067BME Voters: 3,101Majority: 3,569BME Voters: 23,071Majority: 641BME Voters: 5,300

Majority: 8,808BME Voters: 44,329Majority: 4,453BME Voters: 7,931Majority: 3,414BME Voters: 4,137Majority: 1,650BME Voters: 4,757Majority: 103BME Voters: 13,846Majority: 4,581BME Voters: 21,332Majority: 176BME Voters: 7,764



Majority: 3,259BME Voters: 35,200Majority: 504BME Voters: 6,282



Majority: 3,272BME Voters: 7,378Majority: 4,920BME Voters: 4,474Majority: 2,470BME Voters: 2,195Majority: 6,982BME Voters: 7,883Majority: 3,435

BME Voters: 4,438Majority: 3,864BME Voters: 3,725Majority: 269BME Voters: 1,178

Majority: 5,200BME Voters: 12,514Majority: 1,608BME Voters: 14,849


Majority: 175BME Voters: 10,000Majority: 1,312BME Voters: 1,212



Majority: 1,818BME Voters: 8,054Majority: 6,875BME Voters: 26,406Majority: 1,894BME Voters: 17,010




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MPs vulnerable to BME vote

Just some o the many MPs in marginal constituencies whose survival means attracting a good share o the BME vote.

Pictured Top (let to right): Ben Bradshaw (L), Jackie Doyle-Price (C), Ed Balls (L), Lynne Featherstone (LD) and Eric Olle-

renshaw (C) & Bottom (let to right): Angie Bray (C), Jack Dromey (L), Julian Huppert (LD), Caroline Lucas (G) and Gavin

Barwell (C).

Many o the most prominent

politicians represent sae

seats, some o which are re-

garded as sae because they

enjoy the support o BME

constituents. However there

are a number o key fgures

who represent marginal seats

who are particularly vulner-

able to the power o the Black

vote.

Perhaps the leading MP wholooks most vulnerable is Labours

Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls in

Morley and Outwood. He has a

tiny majority o 1,101 and 3,271

BME voters.

The majority o leading Conserva-

tives represent sae seats however

several prominent Labour gures

represent marginals and will hope

to win over their BME electorate,

including ormer Labour cabinet

ministers Ben Bradshaw (Exeter)

and Caroline Flint (Don Valley).

Former Labour ministers Geo-rey Robinson (Coventry NW) and

Vernon Coaker (Gedling) are in a

similar position.

For the Liberal Democrats, Home

Lib Dem Home Oce minister Jer-

emy Browne (Taunton Deane), In-

ternational Development minister

Lynne Featherstone (Hornsey &

Wood Green), and Deputy Leader

o the House Tom Brake (Carshal-

ton & Wallington) all need to at-

tract the BME vote i they are to

retain their seats.

The seat most vulnerable to the

Black vote is Hampstead and Kil-

burn. Labours MP, Glenda Jackson,

is retiring so the MP in the second

most vulnerable seat - who is ex-

pected to stand again - is Conser-vative MP Dan Byles.

There are other constituencies

where the BME electorate is signi-

icant in relation to the overall elec-

torate while the seat is classied

in this study airly sae, including

seats represented by Conserva-

tive Culture Secretary Maria Miller

(Basingstoke) and Labours ormer

Home Secretary Jack Straw (Black-

burn).


16/64

Aberconwy

MP: Guto Bebb

Party: Conservative

2010 Majority: 3,398 (Ultra Marginal)

Nearest challenger: Labour

BME Voters in 2015 - AdjustedFigure: 892

Total BME Population: 1,219 (2.2%)

Asian Voters: 363

Black Voters: 188

Largest BME: White & Black Carib-

bean

BME Impact: Slight

Aldridge-Brownhills

MP: Richard ShepherdParty: Conservative

2010 Majority:15,266 (Very Sae)


BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted

Figure: 3,870


Asian Voters: 2,303

Black: Voters 1,097

Largest BME: Indian

BME Impact: Slight

Altrincham and Sale

MP: Graham Brady

Party: Conservative

2010 Majority: 11,595 (Sae)

Nearest challenger: Lib Dems


Figure: 6,762


Asian Voters: 3,695

Black Voters: 1,327

Largest BME: Indian

BME Impact:Signicant

Aberavon

MP: Hywel Francis

Party: Labour



BME Voters in 2015 - AdjustedFigure: 1,168


Asian Voters: 606

Black Voters: 143

Largest BME: Other Asian

BME Impact: Minimal

Alyn and Deeside

MP: Mark TamiParty: Labour

2010 Majority: 2,919 (Marginal)

Nearest challenger: Conservative


Figure: 1,076


Asian Voters: 546

Black Voters: 223

Largest BME: Chinese


Amber ValleyMP: Nigel Mills

Party: Conservative

2010 Majority: 536 (Ultra Marginal)



Figure: 1,036


Asian Voters: 430

Black Voters: 387

Largest BME: White & Black Carib-

bean

BME Impact:Very Signicant

ArfonMP: Hywel Williams

Party: Plaid Cymru




Figure: 2,500


Asian Voters: 901

Black Voters: 334



Arundel & South DownsMP: Nick Herbert

Party: Conservative

2010 Majority: 16,691 (Ultra Sae)



Figure: 1,602


Asian Voters: 814

Black Voters: 406

Largest BME: White & Asian

BME Impact: Minimal

Ashfield

MP: Gloria De Piero

Party: Labour




Figure: 1,523


Asian: 630

Black: 564

Largest BME: White & Black Carib-bean


Ashford

MP: Damien Green

Party: Conservative




Figure: 5,376


Asian Voters: 2,945

Black Voters: 1,560

Largest BME: AricanBME Impact: Fair

Ashton-under-Lyne

MP: David Heyes

Party: Labour

2010 Majority: 9,094 (Fairly Sae)



Figure: 8,376

Total BME Population: 11,445

(12.6%)

Asian Voters: 6,305

Black Voters: 1,401Largest BME: Pakistani


16 Changing Face o England & Wales

Aldershot

MP: Gerald Howarth

Party: Conservative



BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-ure: 11,003


(14.5%)

Asian Voters: 10,326

Black Voters: 3,026



Seat-by-seat breakdown


17/64

Banbury

MP: Tony Baldry

Party: Conservative




Figure: 6,545Total BME Population: 8,943 (7.6%)

Asian Voters: 3,654

Black Voters: 1,914

Largest BME: Pakistani

BME Impact: Fair

Barking

MP: Margaret Hodge

Party: Labour

2010 Majority: 16,555 (Very Sae)


BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-

ure: 40,279Total BME Population: 55,036 (45%)


Black Voters: 20,508

Largest BME: Arican


Barnsley East

MP: Michael Dugher

Party: Labour

2010 Majority: 11,090 (Sae)Nearest challenger: Lib Dems


Figure: 1,239


Asian Voters: 356

Black Voters: 621

Largest BME: Arican

BME Impact: Minimal

Barnsley Central

MP: Eric Illsley

Party: Labour

2010 Majority: 11,093 (Sae)Nearest challenger: Lib Dem / Tory


Figure: 1,686


Asian Voters: 594

Black Voters: 651

Largest BME: Arican

BME Impact: Minimal

Barrow & Furness

MP: John Woodcock

Party: Labour

2010 Majority: 5,208 (Marginal)Nearest challenger: Conservative


Figure: 1,021


Asian Voters: 506

Black Voters: 209


BME Impact: Fair

Basildon & Billericay

MP: John Baron

Party: Conservative




Figure: 4,786


Asian Voters: 1,905

Black Voters: 2,251

Largest BME: Arican

BME Impact: Fairly Signicant

Basingstoke

MP: Maria Miller*

Party: Conservative




Figure: 7,618


Asian Voters: 4,110

Black Voters: 2,085

Largest BME: Indian


Bassetlaw

MP: John Mann

Party: Labour




Figure: 1,959


Asian Voters: 842

Black Voters: 712

Largest BME: Indian

BME Impact: Fair

Bath

MP: Don Foster*

Party: Lib Dems




Figure: 5,428


Asian Voters: 1,974

Black Voters: 1,409Largest BME: Chinese


Batley & Spen

MP: Mike Wood

Party: Labour




ure: 17,534



Black Voters: 751Largest BME: Indian

BME Impact:VerySignicant

Battersea

MP: Jane Ellison

Party: Conservative




ure: 20,708


Asian Voters: 5,525

Black Voters: 11,333Largest BME: Arican


Aylesbury

MP: David Liddington

Party: Conservative




ure: 11,231Total BME Population: 15,346

(14.2%)

Asian Voters: 6,823

Black Voters: 3,242



Changing Face o England & Wales 17


18/64

Beckenham

MP: Bob Stewart

Party: Conservative




Figure: 8,475Total BME Population: 11,580

(13.3%)

Asian Voters: 3,353

Black Voters: 3,414

Largest BME: Indian


Bedford

MP: Richard Fuller

Party: Conservative




ure: 18,916Total BME Population: 25,846

(25.6%)


Black Voters: 5,576

Largest BME: Indian


Bermsy & Old Southwark

MP: Simon Hughes

Party: Lib Dems

2010 Majority: 8,530 (Fairly Sae)Nearest challenger: Labour


ure: 38,471


(41.5%)

Asian Voters: 8,499


Largest BME: Arican


Berwick-upon-Tweed

MP: Sir Alan Beith

Party: Lib Dems



Figure: 746


Asian Voters: 344

Black Voters: 231

Largest BME: Indian

BME Impact: Slight

Bethnal Green & Bow

MP: Rushanara Ali

Party: Labour

2010 Majority: 11,574 (Fairly Sae)Nearest challenger: Lib Dems


ure: 48,675


(53.1%)


Black Voters: 7,593

Largest BME: Bangladeshi


Beverley & HoldernessMP: Gisela Stuart

Party: Conservative




Figure: 1,096


Asian Voters: 524

Black Voters: 286


BME Impact: Minimal

Bexhill & BattleMP: Greg Barker

Party: Conservative




Figure: 2,075


Asian Voters: 1,038

Black Voters: 517


BME Impact: Minimal

Bexleyheath & CrayfordMP: David Evennett

Party: Conservative




ure: 10,213


(15.9%)

Asian Voters: 3,756

Black Voters: 5,060

Largest BME: Arican


Birkenhead

MP: Frank Field

Party: Labour




Figure: 2,715


Asian Voters: 1,356

Black Voters: 554

Largest BME: Indian

BME Impact: Minimal

Birmingham Edgbaston

MP: Gisela Stuart

Party: Labour




ure: 22,142


(31.3%)


Black Voters: 7,415

Largest BME: Indian


Birmingham Erdington

MP: Jack Dromey

Party: Labour




ure: 19,262


(26.9%)

Asian Voters: 7,543


Largest BME: Caribbean


Beaconsfield

MP: Dominic Grieve*

Party: Conservative




Figure: 9,054Total BME Population: 12,371

(12.4%)

Asian Voters: 6,327

Black Voters: 1,368

Largest BME: Indian

BME Impact: Fairly Signicant



19/64

Birmingham Hodge Hill

MP: Liam Byrne**

Party: Labour




Figure: 57,291Majority Seat: BME Voters 61.1%


(64.3%)


BlackVoters: 9,615



Birmingham Northfield

MP: Richard Burden

Party: Labour2010 Majority: 2,782 (Marginal)



ure: 10,508


(14.4%)

Asian Voters: 3,174

Black Voters: 5,624

Largest BME: White & Black Caribbean


Birmingham Ladywood

MP: Shabana Mahmood

Party: Labour




Figure: 67,380Majority Seat: BME Voters 70%


(72.7%)


BlackVoters: 24,195



Birmingham Perry Barr

MP: Khalid Mahmood

Party: Labour2010 Majority: 11,908 (Sae)



ure: 47,282

Majority Seat: BME Voters 57%


(60.3%)



Largest BME: Indian


Birmingham Selly Oak

MP: Steve McCabe




ure: 17,084


(22.4%)

Asian Voters: 9,036

Black Voters: 5,315



Birmingham Yardley

MP: John Hemming

Party: Lib Dems




ure: 26,843



Black Voters: 5,991



Bishop Auckland

MP: Helen Goodman

Party: Labour




Figure: 794


Asian Voters: 349

Black Voters: 232


BME Impact: Minimal

Blackburn

MP: Jack Straw**

Party: Labour




ure: 31,971



Black Voters: 854

Largest BME: Indian


Blackley & Broughton

MP: Graham Stringer

Party: Labour




ure: 25,903

Total BME Population: 35,394 (32%)

Asian Voters: 12,867Black Voters: 11,663 (10.6%)



Blackpool N & Cleverleys

MP: Paul Maynard

Party: Conservative




Figure: 1,673


Asian Voters: 839Black Voters: 444



Blackpool South

MP: Gordon Marsden

Party: Labour




Figure: 2,028





Birmingham Hall Green

MP: Roger Godsi

Party: Labour




Figure: 54,690Majority Seat: BME Voters 61.3%


(64.5%)


BlackVoters: 6,657





20/64


21/64

Bracknell

MP: Phillip Lee

Party: Conservative




Figure: 6,955


Asian Voters: 3,855

Black Voters: 2,071Largest BME: Other Asian


Bradford East

MP: David Ward

Party: Lib Dems




ure: 39,063


(46.9%)

Asian Voters: 33,631Black Voters: 3,155



Bradford South

MP: Gerry Sutclie

Party: Labour





(21.1%)


Black Voters: 2,789



Bradford West

MP: Marsha Singh+

Party: Labour




Majority Seat: BME Voters 59.6%


(62.9%)


Black Voters: 3,190



Braintree

MP: Brooks Newmark

Party: Conservative





Asian Voters: 1,050

Black Voters: 755


BME Impact: Minimal

Brecon & Radnorshire

MP: Roger Williams

Party: Lib Dems




Figure: 1,038


Asian Voters: 667

Black Voters: 158


BME Impact: Fair

Brent Central

MP: Sarah Teather

Party: Lib Dems




ure: 61,609



(61.2%)



Largest BME: Arican


Brent North

MP: Barry Gardiner

Party: Labour




ure: 69,015



(73.4%)


Black: Voters 12,836

Largest BME: Indian


Brentford & Isleworth

MP: Mary Macleod

Party: Conservative




ure: 39,751


(42.2%)


Black Voters: 7,380Largest BME: Indian


Brentwood & Ongar

MP: Eric Pickles*

Party: Conservative




Figure: 3,963


Asian Voters: 2,004

Black Voters: 1,167

Largest BME: IndianBME Impact: Slight

Bridgend

MP: Madeleine Moon

Party: Labour




Figure: 1,645


Asian Voters: 828

Black Voters: 365

Largest BME: Other AsianBME Impact:Signicant

Bournemouth West

MP: Conor Burns

Party: Conservative




Figure: 5,282


Asian Voters: 2,388

Black Voters: 1,187

Largest BME: Other Asian (1.4%)




22/64

Brigg & Goole

MP: Andrew Percy

Party: Conservative




Figure: 1,029



Largest BME: Indian

BME Impact: Fair

Brighton Kemptown

MP: Simon Kirby

Party: Conservative




Figure: 6,407





Brighton Pavilion

MP: Caroline Lucas

Party: Green




Figure: 8,282


(10.9%)

Asian Voters: 3,207

Black Voters: 2,334



Bristol East

MP: Kerry McCarthy

Party: Labour




ure: 11,426


(16.4%)

Asian Voters: 4,353

Black Voters: 5,666

Largest BME: Arican


Bristol North West

MP: Charlotte Leslie

Party: Conservative




Figure: 9,717


(13.2%)

Asian Voters: 3,954

Black Voters: 4,294

Largest BME: Indian


Bristol South

MP: Dawn Primarolo*




Figure: 5,840


Asian Voters: 2,024

Black Voters: 2,828



Bristol West

MP: Stephen Williams

Party: Lib Dems2010 Majority: 11,366 (Sae)



ure: 23,253


(25.5%)

Asian Voters: 6,626


Largest BME: Arican


Broadland

MP: Keith Simpson

Party: Conservative2010 Majority: 7,292 (Fairly Sae)



Figure: 1,274


Asian Voters: 573

Black Voters: 364


BME Impact: Minimal

Bromley & Chislehurst

MP: Bob Neill

Party: Conservative




ure: 10,377


Asian Voters: 3,889

Black Voters: 4,557

Largest BME: AricanBME Impact:Signicant

Bromsgrove

MP: Sajid Javid*

Party: Conservative




Figure: 2,884


Asian Voters: 1,509

Black Voters: 846

Largest BME: IndianBME Impact: Slight

Broxbourne

MP: Charles Walker

Party: Conservative




Figure: 6,931


Asian Voters: 1,886

Black Voters: 3,720

Largest BME: AricanBME Impact: Fair

Bridgwater & W Somerset

MP: Ian Liddell-Grainger

Party: Conservative




Figure: 1,127




BME Impact: Minimal



23/64

Buckingham

MP: John Bercow*

Party: None (Speaker)


Nearest challenger: Independent


Figure: 3,064


Asian Voters: 1,411Black Voters: 994


BME Impact: Slight

Burnley

MP: Gordon Birtwistle

Party: Lib Dems




Figure: 8,054


(12.6%)Asian Voters: 7,159

Black Voters: 387



Burton

MP: Andrew Griths

Party: Conservative





(10.3%)

Asian Voters: 5,761

Black Voters: 1,351



Bury North

MP: David Nuttall

Party: Conservative





(11.9%)

Asian Voters: 5,796

Black Voters: 1,023



Bury South

MP: Ivan Lewis**

Party: Labour





Asian Voters: 3,946

Black Voters: 1,643



Bury St Edmunds

MP: David Rufey

Party: Conservative2010 Majority: 12,380 (Very Sae)



Figure: 2,686


Asian Voters: 1,168

Black Voters: 895


BME Impact: Fair

Caerphilly

MP: Wayne David

Party: Labour2010 Majority: 10,755 (Very Sae)



Figure: 1,208


Asian Voters: 496

Black Voters: 341


BME Impact: Minimal

Calder Valley

MP: Craig Whittaker

Party: Conservative2010 Majority: 6,431 (Marginal)



Figure: 2,607


Asian Voters: 1,450

Black Voters: 721



Camberwell & PeckhamMP: Harriet Harman**

Party: Labour




ure: 50,552



(55.2%)

Asian Voters: 5,950


Largest BME: AricanBME Impact:Very Signicant

Camborne & RedruthMP: George Eustice

Party: Conservative




Figure: 1,075


Asian Voters: 426

Black Voters: 307



CambridgeMP: Julian Huppert

Party: Lib Dems




ure: 14,631


(17.4%)

Asian Voters: 7,101

Black Voters: 2,284



Broxtowe

MP: Anna Soubry

Party: Conservative




Figure: 5,633



Largest BME: Indian




24/64

Canterbury

MP: Julian Brazier

Party: Conservative




Figure: 6,840





Cardiff Central

MP: Jenny Willott

Party: Lib Dems




ure: 12,445



Black Voters: 2,140

Largest BME: Indian


Cardiff North

MP: Jonathan Evans

Party: Conservative




Figure: 5,883


Asian Voters: 3,132

Black Voters: 1,165

Largest BME: Indian


Cardiff South & Penarth

MP: Alun Michael**

Party: Labour




ure: 13,095


(16.7%)

Asian Voters: 5,592

Black Voters: 4,576

Largest BME: Arican


Cardiff West

MP: Kevin Brennan

Party: Labour




Figure: 8,357


(12.5%)

Asian Voters: 4,384

Black Voters: 2,268

Largest BME: Indian


Carlisle

MP: John Stevenson

Party: Conservative2010 Majority: 853 (Ultra Marginal)



Figure: 1,329


Asian Voters: 987 (1.1%)

Black Voters: 324 (0.4%)



Carmarthen E & Dinefwr

MP: Jonathan Edwards

Party: Plaid Cymru2010 Majority: 3,481 (Marginal)



Figure: 312

Total BME Population: 990 (1.4%)

Asian Voters: 427

Black Voters: 176


BME Impact: Minimal

Carmarthen W & Pem S

MP: Simon Hart




Figure: 870


Asian Voters: 652

Black Voters: 248

Largest BME: Indian

BME Impact: Fair

Carshalton & Wall ington

MP: Tom Brake*

Party: Lib Dems




ure: 14,936


(21.4%)

Asian Voters: 7,271

Black Voters: 5,661

Largest BME: Other AsianBME Impact:Very Signicant

Castle Point

MP: R Harris

Party: Conservative




Figure: 2,003


Asian Voters: 772

Black Voters: 813

Largest BME: Indian

BME Impact: Fair

Central Devon

MP: M Stride

Party: Conservative




Figure: 921


Asian Voters: 408

Black Voters: 215


BME Impact: Minimal

Cannock Chase

MP: Aidan Burley

Party: Conservative




Figure: 1,614







25/64

Ceredigion

MP: Mark Williams

Party: Lib Dems




Figure: 1,814



Largest BME: Indian

BME Impact: Slight

Charnwood

MP: Stephen Dorrell**

Party: Conservative




Figure: 8,064



Black Voters: 823

Largest BME: Indian


Chatham & Aylesford

MP: Tracey Crouch

Party: Conservative




Figure: 4,441


Asian Voters: 2,723

Black Voters: 2,401

Largest BME: Arican


Cheadle

MP: Mark Hunter

Party: Lib Dems




Figure: 7,378


(11.1%)

Asian Voters: 5,101

Black Voters: 847



Chelmsford

MP: Simon Burns

Party: Conservative




Figure: 5,912


Asian Voters: 2,889

Black Voters: 1,883

Largest BME: Indian


Chelsea & Fulham

MP: Greg Hands

Party: Conservative

2010 Majority: 16,722 (Very Sae)Nearest challenger: Labour


ure: 17,543


(22.7%)

Asian Voters: 5,819

Black Voters: 5,874



Cheltenham

MP: Martin Horwood

Party: Lib Dems



Figure: 4,474


Asian Voters: 2,350

Black Voters: 1,023

Largest BME: Indian


Chesham & Amersham

MP: Cheryl Gillian

Party: Conservative

2010 Majority: 16,710 (Very Sae)Nearest challenger: Lib Dems


Figure: 5,771


Asian Voters: 4,099

Black Voters: 800

Largest BME: Indian

BME Impact: Fair

ChesterfieldMP: Toby Perkins

Party: Labour




Figure: 2,465


Asian Voters: 1,037

Black Voters: 950

Largest BME: Indian


ChichesterMP: Andrew Tyrie

Party: Conservative




Figure: 2,408


Asian Voters: 1,140

Black Voters: 649


BME Impact: Minimal

Chingford & Woodford GnMP: Iain Duncan Smith*

Party: Conservative




ure: 17,062


(26.4%)

Asian Voters: 6,866

Black Voters: 7,328

Largest BME: Caribbean


C Suffolk & N Ipswich

MP: Daniel Poulter

Party: Conservative




Figure: 3,092




BME Impact: Slight



26/64

Chipping Barnet

MP: Theresa Villiers

Party: Conservative




ure: 23,081

Total BME Population: 31,537(28.2%)


Black Voters: 5,877

Largest BME: Indian


Chorley

MP: Lindsay Hoyle

Party: Labour




Figure: 2,131

Total BME Population: 2,913 (3.1%)Asian Voters: 1,165

Black Voters: 577

Largest BME: Indian


Christchurch

MP: Christopher Chope

Party: Conservative


Nearest challenger: Lib DemsBME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted

Figure: 1,332


Asian Voters: 627

Black Voters: 300


BME Impact: Minimal

Cities of London & Wstr

MP: Mark Field

Party: Conservative


Nearest challenger: LabourBME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-

ure: 25,329


(31.5%)

Asian Voters: 9,662

Black Voters: 4,916



City of Chester

MP: Stephen Mosley

Party: Conservative


Nearest challenger: LabourBME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted

Figure: 2,826


Asian Voters: 1,478

Black Voters: 725

Largest BME: Indian


City of Durham

MP: Roberta Blackman-Woods

Party: Labour




Figure: 3,103


Asian Voters: 1,381

Black Voters: 472



Clacton

MP: Douglas Carswell

Party: Conservative




Figure: 1,597


Asian Voters: 580

Black Voters: 614


BME Impact: Minimal

Cleethorpes

MP: Martin Vickers

Party: Conservative




Figure: 1,417


Asian Voters: 665

Black Voters: 326

Largest BME: Indian

BME Impact: Fair

Clwyd South

MP: Susan Elan Jones

Party: Labour




Figure: 930


Asian Voters: 404

Black Voters: 312

Largest BME: Arican

BME Impact: Fair

Clwyd West

MP: David Jones

Party: Conservative




Figure: 1,308


Asian Voters: 600

Black Voters: 240


BME Impact: Slight

Colchester

MP: Sir Bob Russell

Party: Lib Dems




Figure: 7,883


Asian Voters: 3,311

Black Voters: 2,298



Chippenham

MP: Duncan Hames

Party: Lib Dems




Figure: 2,195

Total BME Population: 3,000 (3.3%)Asian Voters: 911

Black Voters: 884





27/64

Congleton

MP: Fiona Bruce

Party: Conservative




Figure: 1,219




BME Impact: Minimal

Corby

MP: Louise Mench (nee Bagshawe)+

Party: Conservative





Asian Voters: 1,064

Black Voters: 1,332

Largest BME: Arican


Copeland

MP: Jamie Reed

Party: Labour




Figure: 949




BME Impact: Fair

Coventry North East

MP: Bob Ainsworth**

Party: Labour






Black Voters: 7,377

Largest BME: Indian


Coventry North West

MP: Georey Robinson**

Party: Labour





(18.3%)

Asian Voters: 8,364

Black Voters: 3,458

Largest BME: Indian


Coventry South

MP: Jim Cunningham




ure: 20,553


(26.6%)


Black Voters: 5,543

Largest BME: Indian


Crawley

MP: Henry Smith




ure: 15,674


(20.1%)


Black Voters: 3,578

Largest BME: Indian


Crewe & Nantwich

MP: Edward Timpson




Figure: 2,885


Asian Voters: 1,207

Black Voters: 1,071



Croydon CentralMP: Gavin Barwell

Party: Conservative




ure: 32,389


(38.6%)



Largest BME: Arican

BME Impact:Very Signica

Documents

Power of the Black Vote - OBV