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“Anywhere from 25 million
to 1 billion people will be
forced to migrate because
of the changing climate by
2050.”
Time Magazine28th June, 2018
Catastrophic Damage
Credit: Diandra Jones
Not pretty!
Stronger hurricanes more frequently
• The frequency and intensity of the strongest storms in the North
Atlantic have increased over the satellite era (1979–2012).
• This Century, there will likely be an increase in both global
average tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and rainfall
rates.
• It is more likely than not that the frequency of the most intense
storms will increase substantially in some basins,” including the
North Atlantic.
1 in 800 1 in 180 1 in 60
1990 2017 2090
A glimpse of our future…
National Emergency Operations
Centre destroyed…
90% Government offices
destroyed…
2.5 x GDP economic impact…
>90% of yachts damaged…
95% of electricity grid destroyed…
No public water supply for
months…
Most popular tourist beach closed
for months...
Climate Change
requires preparing
for the
unprecedented
Continuity plans
must imagine
the unimaginable
There’s absolutely no linearity between a Cat 4 and a Cat 5...
Hugo (1989 Cat 4) * Irma (2017 Cat 5) **Full electricity
restoration < 2 weeks > 6 months
Tourism
sector impactUSD $15 million USD $2.8 billion
Housing stock
impact
30% damaged
10% severe damage
62% damaged
31% major damage/destroyed
Water and
sewerage
infrastructure
damage
USD $121,870 USD $5.9 million
Phone service
(landlines)
Damaged but functioned
“very well” during storm
Essentially wiped out
Health sector Damage to hospital and 2
clinics totaling USD
$165,000
Damage to all 12 clinics. Major
damage to 5.
*Source: (Atwell, 1993). Post Hurricane Hugo Assessment Focusing on Sustainable Development Issues in the British Virgin Islands. Prepared for PAHO.
**Multiple official Government sources, including published reports, published speeches and personal communications.
• Communication
• Transportation
• Lack of basic
services
• Debris
• Receiving and
distributing relief
• Switch to renewable energy
• Implementation of coastal retreat strategies
• Building Code and other regulatory upgrades
Plan for the change before the disaster
The Caribbean is working to adapt
Nov 2003 - 8.4 inches Aug 2017 - 9.38 inches
There is a very high risk that average sea level would
increase by several meters over the next century or two
- Jean-Pascal van Ypersele – Former Vice Chair, IPCC
The Virgin Islands Climate Change Trust Fundwww.vicctf.org
We can’t adapt our way into a safe future
“Limiting global warming
to 1.5°C compared with
2°C would reduce
challenging impacts on
ecosystems, human
health and well-being,
making it easier to
achieve the UN
Sustainable Development
Goals,”
Priyardarshi Shukla, Co-
Chair of IPCC Working
Group III.
“We are already seeing the
consequences of 1°C of global
warming through more extreme
weather, rising sea levels and
diminishing Arctic sea ice, among
other changes,”
Panmao Zhai, Co-Chair of IPCC
Working Group I.
“Every extra bit of warming
matters, especially since warming
of 1.5ºC or higher increases the
risk associated with long-lasting
or irreversible changes, such as
the loss of some ecosystems,”
Hans-Otto Pörtner, Co-Chair of
IPCC Working Group II.
450-750 gigatons of CO2 equivalent
approx. 12 years
Lead the way on mitigation
Be the Change
Invest in the future
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Investments in low-carbon energy technologies and energy efficiency would need to approx. double in the next 20 years, while investment in fossil-fuel extraction and conversion decrease by about a quarter
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