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Premier Oil
Citation preview
Finding Petroleum Conference January 20th / 21st 2010
Creating Value from
Rift Basin Exploration
Premier’s SE Asia Story
Page 170
Forward looking statements
This presentation may contain forward-looking statements and
information that both represents management's current
expectations or beliefs concerning future events and are
subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties.
A number of factors could cause actual results, performance or
events to differ materially from those expressed or implied by
these forward-looking statements.
Page 171
Target
• Build three quality businesses
which deliver 100 kboepd from
400 mmbbls of reserves
Strategy
• Attain 75 kboepd from 2P
reserves of 265 mmboe
• Commercialise contingent
resource base of 180 mmboe
• Add 200 mmboe of
2P reserves from exploration
• Make value-adding acquisitions
in three core areas
• Maintain a conservative
financing plan
Exploration is a fundamental part of Premier’s growth strategy
Target and strategy
Page 172
The majority of the worlds petroleum resources are found in 3 basin types:
• Rift Basins: e.g. North Sea, SE Asia, onshore Africa and West Siberia
• Passive Margins: e.g. West Africa / SE Brazil, NW Australia and the Gulf of Mexico
• Fold-belts / Forelands: Columbia, Iran / Iraq / Saudi Arabia and Pakistan
Premier has a competitive advantage in value creating exploration of Rifts and Fold-belts / Forelands
Premier will continue to explore the rift basins of SE Asia and the North Sea and will look to exploit its
competitive advantages in selected rifts and fold-belt basins of Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia
Petroleum basin focus
Page 173
Exploration strategy
Near-term programme
• Asia: Nam Con Son Basin (Vietnam and Indonesia)
• North Sea: UK Central North Sea and Norwegian North Sea
New Venture Activity
• Rift Basins: new acreage in the North Sea, Asia and potentially North/East Africa or Central Asia
• Frontal Fold-belt plays: new acreage in the Middle East or Central Asia
The goal is to deliver 200mmboe 2P reserves through the drill bit focussing
on areas where we have demonstrated skills and expertise
Page 174
Exploration – Historic performance
• Premier began exploring in 1986, initially via entry
into SE Asia
• To date Premier has discovered net 800 mmboe at
an overall commercial success rate of 22%
• The commercial discoveries have been made in
two basin types:
1) Rifts: Southeast Asia and Norway
2) Frontal Fold-belts: Pakistan
• The success rate in these basin types is ~40%
• Since 2000 the exploration success has been
dominated by Rift Basin exploration in Asia and
latterly in Norway
800
Premier Discoveries 1986-2009* (net mmboe)
500
400
200
100
01985 1990
300
600
700
1995 2000 2005 2010
* Does not include Egypt
Annual discoveries
Cumulative annual
discoveries
Page 175
500
Premier Discoveries 1988-2009 (net mmboe)
350
300
150
50
01988 1992
250
400
450
Annual discoveries
Cumulative annual
discoveries
200
100
1996 2000 2002 1992
Exploration in SE Asia – Historic performance
• Premier entered SE Asia in 1986
• Premier has discovered 450 mmboe of net
resources in SE Asia
• All discoveries are within Tertiary rift Basins
• 16 discoveries:
– 12 Commercial discoveries
– 4 under appraisal or being commercialised
• Overall success rate 50%
• Value has been created from rift basin exploration
in Asia
Page 176
Exploration in SE Asia 1986-2009
Modified from P.Tognini, SEAPEX 2007
Page 177
2) Continued Rifting Fluvial,
alluvial and lacustrine
deposition
SOURCE & RESERVOIR
3) “Sagging” Marine incursion
RESERVOIR & SEAL
1) Rifting Initiation Lacustrine
and alluvial/fluvial deposition
SOURCE ROCK
SE Asia rifting and inversion – example from West Natuna
SE Asia – Development of rift basins
Anoa Pelikan
Page 178
4) Onset of Inversion Local
erosion on highs and
deposition in lows
TRAP
5) Continued Inversion
Transgression and more
marine influence
SEAL,TRAP & CHARGE
6) Present Day Marine deposition
through to Plio-Pleistocene with
minor inversion
MIGRATION & ENTRAPMENT
Anoa PelikanGajah Baru
SE Asia rifting and inversion – example from West Natuna
SE Asia – Development of rift basins
Page 179
1989
In 1989 Premier Oil discovered the
Songkhla Field in the Gulf of Thailand
Songkhla Basin, a Tertiary rift basin
with an excellent lacustrine source rock
and good fluvio-lacustrine sandstone
reservoirs.
Where could we find another one?
Maybe in the Tanintharyi Basin…
Myanmar exploration
Tanintharyi Basin
Songkhla Field
Page 180
Tanintharyi Basin
Rift / Sunda Fold
Like the Songkhla Basin, the Tanintharyi Basin was a classic rift graben.
It also exhibited tantalizing inversion anticlines.
• Premier negotiated Myanmar
blocks M13 and M14 to
explore the Tanintharyi Basin
• 2D seismic acquired over the
broader area and a partner
was sought
Myanmar exploration
Page 181
On the new seismic, on the
margin the Tanintharyi Basin,
out in the open Gulf of
Martaban was a tantalizing…
Premier’s first Offshore Myanmar seismic survey - 1990
Myanmar exploration – Yetagun
Page 182
Eureka!
Flat Spot!
Myanmar exploration – Yetagun
Page 183
Premier farmed out to Texaco and
Block M12 was acquired to completely
cover the Yetagun structure. M12 M13
1992
Myanmar exploration – Yetagun
M14
Page 184
Blocks M12, M13 and M14 were explored extensively, including two wells in
the Tanintharyi Basin but it was the first well, Yetagun Field that yielded the
prize, in a classic rift setting.
Myanmar exploration – Yetagun
Yetagun Field
Page 185
Yetagun Field Reserves (As reported by a leading industry scouting service):
Myanmar exploration – Yetagun
2002 (13 Wells)
Recoverable Reserves (p+p)
3,170 bcf Sales Gas
Peak Gas Production
(420 mmcf/d)
82 mmbbl Condensate
Peak Condensate Production
(12,000 b/d)
1995 (4 Wells)
Approximately 700 bcf
“appears to be subeconomic”
Page 186
Restructuring
Premier Oil sold out of
Yetagun and used the funds to
buy back 50% of Premier’s
outstanding shares from two
major corporate shareholders.
This move freed Premier of
debt and external control,
adding to shareholder value.
M12 M13
M14
2003
Yetagun value creation
Page 187
Natuna Sea Block A
Anoa Field
Indonesia – Natuna Sea Block A
Page 188
Anoa
Natuna Sea Block A, located over the West Natuna contains classic inverted
rift grabens. In the 1980s these features were exploited for oil but Premier
saw the potential gas market and set about exploring for gas.
N
Naga-1
S
Gajah Baru
Natuna Sea Block A – Fields in Sunda folds
Page 189
Natuna Sea Block A – Premier initial gas resources
Gas Resources
No Certified Gas
In 1996 Natuna Sea Block A
contained the stranded Anoa
gas, nominally 476 bcf, plus 3
old exploration wells that had
tested gas.
1996
Page 190
Natuna Sea Block A – Premier 2009 gas reserves
Gas Reserves (2P)
2009 Certified Gas Reserves
Anoa Field 1192 BCF
Beruang 32 BCF
Gajah Puteri 150 BCF
Bison 57 BCF
Pelikan 158 BCF
Naga 137 BCF
Iguana 29 BCF
Gajah Baru 353 BCF
Total 2108 BCF
2009
Page 191
Chronology of Premier Oil in Natuna Sea Block A
1996 Premier Oil buys 67% of Natuna Sea Block A (476 bcf nominal)
1997 Certification of Existing gas : 706 bcf 2P
1998 Total 1001 bcf 2P certified. Gas Sale to Singapore.
Oil price low. Gas price is linked to price of HSFO.
1999 Develop Anoa gas production facilities.
Build WNTS gas pipeline to Singapore.
2000 Gas production underway
Drill Naga-1, Iguana-1 and Gajah Baru-1, all gas discoveries
2001 Certified reserves 1680 bcf 2P
2002 Oil price going up. Gas price is linked to price of HSFO
2003 Sell part of Natuna Sea Block A for Corporate Restructuring
2007 Oil price WAY up. Gas price is linked to price of HSFO!!!
2008 Certified reserves 2108 bcf 2P
2009 2nd gas Sale to Singapore.
Build gas production facilities on Gajah Baru
Gas price remains relative to oil price
Natuna Sea Block A – Value creation
Natuna Sea Block A Value Creation
*
* Indicative value not absolute
Page 192
12W
07/03
Tuna
Natuna Sea Block A
Nam Con Son Basin /
East Natuna Sea
Natuna Sea Block A
Page 193
• Discovery Q4 2006
• 3D seismic in 2007
• Appraisal drilling in 2008
• Currently under development
• First Oil in 2011
Vietnam – Block 12W Chim Sao
Vietnam Block 12W Chim Sao Field
12W-CS-1X
Page 194
Premier equities
• 07/03: 30% and operator
• Tuna: 65% and operator, target equity 40% pre-drill
Prospectivity
• 10-15 leads and prospects
• Cá Rồng Đó discovery May 2009 (10 mmb to 70
mmboe gross resource)
• Cá Rồng Vang - P&A December 2009
• Resource potential 30-100 mmbo per prospect
2010 Plan
• Fully interpret existing 3D
• Acquire 3D over central part of Block 7/03
• Drill 2 Tuna prospects
2011 Plan
• Appraise Cá Rồng Đó discovery
• Drill exploration wells in 07/03 & Tuna
An integrated play based approach to exploration
Exploration – Vietnam / Indonesia – Nam Con Son
Page 195
• Premier entered Norway in 2005; two
successes from first two exploration wells
• OILEXCO acquisition now permits
exploration in the UK CNS Rift basin
• Active 2010 programme targeting
50 - 200 mmboe net to Premier:
Prospect Potential
(mmboe gross)
Gnatcatcher 31-60 mmboe
Gardrofa 15-115 mmboe
Greater Luno 30-150 mmboe
Blåbaer 15-75 mmboe
Bugle North 10-22 mmboe
Oates 25-107 mmboe
Catcher 18-33 mmboe
Premier has used its experience in Rift basin exploration to enter Norway
and now the UK
Gnatcatcher
Moth/Lacewing
Gardrofa
Greater Luno
Blåbaer
Bugle Appraisal
Bream
Oates
Catcher
Exploration – North Sea
Page 196
• Through it’s long history of exploring Tertiary rift basins in SE Asia; Premier Oil
has an impressive record of success and has made a number of significant
discoveries, including the giant Yetagun field.
• To create value from these discoveries Premier Oil followed-up exploration
success with tenacious commercial efforts.
• In SE Asia Premier Oil has established core areas for exploration and
production in Indonesia and Vietnam over classic Tertiary rift basins. These
areas will continue to anchor Premier Oil in the region following this proven
exploration theme.
• Premier has expanded its Rift Exploration expertise to the North Sea.
• The plan is to further expand the rift based exploration to at least one new area
Summary