Preparing for the Grid of the Future · 2020-03-02 · Preparing for the Grid of the Future Energy Development and Transmission Committee, North Dakota Legislature February 13, 2020

Preparing for the Grid of the Future

Energy Development and Transmission Committee, North Dakota Legislature

February 13, 2020

hfarnsworthText BoxAPPENDIX C

1

Today’s topics

• MISO Overview

• The Evolving Generation Fleet

• Resource Availability and Need

• Transmission Planning

2

MISO & neighboring U.S. electric grid operators

MISO Control Centers: Eagan, Indianapolis (HQ), Little Rock

MISO 15 states + Manitoba

42 million customers

$30 billion market

> 6,600 generation units with 175,000 MW capacity

68,500 miles of high voltage transmission lines

> 190 member utilities

> 460 market participants

3

Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs) were formed to operate the transmission grid on a regional basis, removing transactional barriers across utility and state boundaries

Before MISO, the footprint consisted of dozens of balancing authorities acting independently

With MISO, the footprint is operated as one large network and one balancing authority (with 37 local balancing areas)

MDU

4

MISO members participate across the electricity value chain

Generation Transmission CustomersMarketers Distribution

MISO’s focus

MISO ‘Sectors’:

# of MISO members:

TransmissionOwners

51

Independent Power

Producers

29

Muni/Coop/ Transmission

Dependent

31

Eligible End-User

Customers

9

Competitive Transmission Developers

30

Power Marketers/

Brokers

36

• Great River Energy

• Missouri River Energy Services

• Montana Dakota Utilities (MDU)

• Otter Tail Power• Xcel Energy

• EDF Renewables

• Geronimo• Invenergy• NextEra

North Dakota examples:

• Basin Electric Power Cooperative

Note: Minnkota Power Cooperative is also a MISO market participant

5

What does MISO do?

• Conduct day-ahead and real-time energy and operating reserves markets

• Manage least cost economic dispatch of generation units

• Monitor and schedule energy transfers on the high voltage transmission system

MISO’s Vision: Be the most reliable, value-creating RTO

Efficient Wholesale Market Management & Operations to Ensure Reliability

Comprehensive Regional Transmission Planning

• Long-range transmission planning • New generator interconnection and retirement• Transmission studies, e.g., Renewable Integration Impact Assessment (RIIA)

MISO conducts wholesale markets to ensure lowest cost energy and reliable operations

MISO Real-time Energy Market Price Signals

6

…results in wholesale prices that can fluctuate rapidly to send timely signals to market participants.

60

70

80

90

100

110

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

24 hours

MISO Hourly Load Profile -Average Summer Day

(Thousand MW)

The requirement to balance demand (load) with supply (generation) instantaneously at all points on the grid…

7

MISO connects a large, diverse generation fleet

640Million MWh

175Thousand MW

Total MISO, 2018

Coal47%

Nucl. 16%

Gas27%

Hydro/Other 2% Wind

8%

Generating Capacity Electricity Generated

Source: Misoenergy.org website

Coal32%

Nucl. 8%Gas

42%

Hydro/Other

6% Wind15%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

8

North Dakota “In State” Retail Sales vs. Generation (million MWh/yr)

Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Retail sales

Wind

Gas

Coal

Within MISO, the state of North Dakota is a net exporter of electricity…

Hydro

In state generation and retail electricity sales both growing

As a state, ND consumes much less electricity than it generates within state borders;

Approximately half of ND electricity generation is ‘exported’

2 large coal plants (~ 30 % of ND coal capacity) are connected to Minnesota via DC lines

Organized markets like MISO enable exports to larger consuming states

9

Today’s topics

• MISO Overview




10

MISO’s changing resource portfolio will remain a key influencer of the way value is created moving forward

* More aggressive utility de-carbonization goals and proposed policy changes in Illinois, Minnesota and Wisconsin may further accelerate renewables penetration

Portfolio Change (energy mix %)

76%

47%

27% 22%

13%

16%

9%9%

7%

27%

29%29%

8%

31% 36%

4% 2% 4% 4%

2005 2018 2030 2030 + Policy*Coal Nuclear Gas Wind/Solar Other

(Based on utility and state announcements)

Coal and gas retirements also contribute to the changing resource portfolio

11

Generation Retirement Trend by Fuel Type(Capacity in MW)

Coal Gas Nuclear Oil Diesel Other

13 7242

98 234

7861081 1024 880 931

1929

7001

953

44104575

170

73%

22%

2% 2%0% 1%

Total Approved Retirement since 2005 (24.3 GW)

Wind continues to grow in MISO; solar is emerging

1,1122,462

4,861

7,6259,221

10,60112,271

13,035 13,72615,029

16,31917,225

19,251

22,603

100 232 314 4640

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

MW

Yearly Registered Wind and Solar in MISO

Wind Solar

12

3 GW52 projects

3 GW18 projects

52 GW356 projects

23 GW128 projects

8 GW22

projects

2 GW7 projects

MISO’s Current Generator InterconnectionQueue (currently active projects)

Storage Hybrid SolarWind Gas Other

Total:91 GW

583 projects

Renewables account for over 85% of MISO’s current active generator interconnection request ‘queue’

1313

2.42.23.6

7.62.9

3.52.5

13.6 22.1

28.2

2.7

14.5

17.614.8

5.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2016 2017 2018 2019

Gen

erat

ion

Cap

acity

(GW

)

WindHybridSolarGasStorageOther

21

44

40 41

120projects

255projects

239projects

301 projects

Projects entering MISO’s Generator Interconnection Queue over the past 4 yrs

Queue data as of Oct. 2019

Wind is concentrated in the western footprint, and continues to be a significant portion of new generation

14

7.5

2.8

0.2

2019 New Generation Interconnection Agreements (GIAs) (GW)

Wind Solar Gas

GIA – Generator Interconnection Agreement

In 2019, MISO completed 69 interconnection agreements, totaling over 10 GWIncludes all active wind projects in the application and study phases of the interconnection queue

1515

Large number of generator interconnection requests in western MISO creates system transmission capacity challenges

Recent Interconnection Queue experience in ‘Western’ MISO (last 3 completed queue cycles)

Cycle -> (date applied)

Feb 2016

Aug 2016

Feb 2017

Initial upgrade costs ID’d

(Thousand $/MW)

460 610 1,000

Capacity “In”(GW entering)

5.7 5.6 3.4

Capacity “Out”(GW exiting)

4.7 2.3 0.2

% Out(GW exiting/GW entering)

80% 40% 5%

• 15 GW of generation queued for interconnection in the last 3 cycles

• Recent initial studies each indicated increasing cost to integrate, on the order of $3 billion for multiple 345 kV new line additions

• Ultimately 7+ GW of generation was able to achieve interconnection agreements for smaller rebuilds of existing facilities

• System capacity is fully committed in this area; interconnection capability is ‘hitting a wall’

16

North Dakota has many projects in the queue, mostly wind; but projects are being impacted by transmission constraints

MISO queue projects in North Dakota since 2016

6 GW of projects have entered the MISO queue in ND since 2016, of that… 2 GW have completed the study phase (through Feb 2017 group):

• 1.7 GW have withdrawn, including all the Feb 17 group, due to high transmission upgrade costs• 0.4 GW have successfully executed interconnection agreements or are ‘in process’

4 GW in later groups (Aug 2017 to 2019) make up the “Active” queue

0.1 GW1 project

0.9 GW6 projects

3.1 GW16 projects

GasSolarWind

Total:4.1 GW

23 projects

Active North Dakota queue projects(as of Sept 2019)

17

Overview of MISO’s Renewable Integration Impact Assessment (RIIA)

Context: RIIA is an ongoing study conducted collaboratively with MISO members to identify MISO-wide renewable penetration levels at which integration complexity significantly increases.

Emerging Themes:• Up to 30% renewables, challenges appear manageable with regular, incremental

transmission expansion• By 40%, significant challenges begin

o 40% MISO-wide equates to 70-100% local penetration in wind-rich Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota

o Tradeoffs required between renewable curtailment & transmission investment o Increased flexibility requirements (ramping from conventional generation) o Increased system stability concerns

• Challenges can be addressed; however, least cost solutions require careful study and regional coordination across the MISO footprint

• The value of MISO-wide diversity and ‘interconnectedness’ are key

(from RIIA Phase 1&2 Wrap-up Workshop - 11/13/2019)

MISO’s Renewable Integration Impact Assessment (RIIA) indicates integration complexity increasing sharply beyond 30% renewable penetration

Need to clean up images, up font sizes, etc.

Base 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Ren

ewab

le In

tegr

atio

n C

om

plex

ity

Renewable Energy Penetration Levels

Operating Reliability (Dynamics)

Operating Reliability (Steady State)

Energy Adequacy (Hourly)

Resource Adequacy

Total

Inflection point

18

19

Today’s topics

• MISO Overview




16.7%14.2% 14.8% 14.3% 15.2% 15.8%

17.1% 16.8%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

27.4% 28.1%

18.6% 18.0% 18.2% 18.8%

Actual Reserve Margin

Planning Reserve Margin (PRM)Req’mt

19.1% 19.3%

Reserve margins are adequate but have tightened since 2013; our neighbors tend to have excess capacity

20

MISO Historical Reserve Margins 2019 Reserve Margin by RTO*

* Source: NERC Long-Term Reliability Assessment publications for anticipated reserve marginsNote: 2008 MISO is an estimate based on portions of MRO, RFC-MISO, and SERC data. Note: 2008 PJM is RFC-PJM.

19.3%

29.0%

31.8%30.7%

24.8%

22.4%

8.5%

MISO PJM SPP ISO-NE NYISO CAISO ERCOT

21

How do we ensure reliability in all hours, including non-peak periods, as unit availability and performance decline?

January 17, 2018 September 15, 2018 January 31, 2019

Cold weather in South Region, excess generation

in the North/Central Regions unable to move south due to

transmission limitation.

Unseasonably warm temperatures in the South

Region resulted in higher load than anticipated; forced

outages impacted generation availability.

Historic cold in the North and Central Regions drove high

load conditions; excess generation in the South

Region unable to move north due to transmission limitation

$300-$1000$100-$300$60-$100$40-$60$20-$40$(10)-$20

$(1000)-$(10)

$/MWh

22

Resource Availability and Need (RAN) guiding principles help to ensure reliability for a transforming grid

1) Reliability Needs and Requirements: Reliability criteria must reflect required attributes in all horizons – “all hours matter”

2) Reliability Contribution: Members are responsible for meeting reliability criteria with resources that will be accredited based upon the resource’s ability to deliver those attributes

3) Alignment with Markets and Infrastructure: Market prices must be reflective of underlying system conditions and resources must be appropriately incentivized for the attributes they provide; infrastructure should enable efficient utilization of resources

Guiding Principles

The RAN initiative includes efforts specifically focused on addressing operational and market concerns due to portfolio change

23

Resource Adequacy Construct:• Reflect risks throughout year• PRA reliability value reflected

in auction results

Resource Accreditation:• Align with attributes based on

all-hours reliability criteria

• Deliverability improvements

Market Incentives:• Prices reflect operating

conditions• Incentivize needed system

attributes (e.g., multi-day market mechanism)

Next Focus Continued improvement in

availability and flexibility

In Flight Continued refinements for

2020 Planning Resource Auction (PRA), progress on

market-based solution

Progress, To Date Improve resource transparency

and performance for spring 2019 and subsequent planning year

Load Modifying Resources (LMRs): • Create transparency and better

align LMR obligations with other resources

Outage Coordination:• Improve forward-looking

transparency for stakeholders and MISO

• Increase early outage notification and flexibility during emergencies

Visibility: • Multi-day Operating Margin

forecast

PRA Inputs:• Improve PRA inputs, focus

on Load-Modifying Resources

• Create rules outlining reasonable expectations for availability or replacement during the planning year

Visibility: • Enhancements to the Multi-

day Operating Margin forecast

24

Today’s topics

• MISO Overview




25

The regional transmission planning process provides a comprehensive, value-based approach

Policy Planning

Reliability Planning

EconomicPlanning

Interconnection Planning

Evaluate long-term interconnection queue

requests; identify upgrades to integrate into

base expansion model

MISO Value-Based

Planning Approach

Scenario-based planning to provide economic and

market efficiency benefits

Validate needs for plans identified by the member Transmission Owners; seek efficiencies by combining plans, if possible; evaluate system against reliability standards

Long-term policy focused planning to analyze the impacts of changes in state or federal policy and industry trends; determine the transmission required to support those policies and industry trends

Planning HorizonsReliability: 5 to 10 years

Economic: 15 to 20 years

26

Balancing Generation and Transmission Investment

Total

Cost

($)

Generation capacity costH LTransmission cost H

Minimum Total Cost:, generation + transmission

Higher transmission cost, lower generation

cost

High generation cost, low transmission

cost

Goal

L

MISO’s transmission planning process is focused on minimizing the total cost of delivered power to consumers: energy, capacity and transmission

MISO plans transmission, not generation, but overall least cost solutions require balancing generation and transmission investment

Chart8

221.4

200.4

180.6

162

144.6

128.4

113.4

99.6

87

75.6

65.4

56.4

48.6

42

36.6

32.4

29.4

27.6

27

27.6

29.4

32.4

36.6

42

48.6

56.4

65.4

75.6

87

99.6

113.4

128.4

144.6

162

180.6

200.4

221.4

Overall Summary

18% Reserve Margin20062010201520202025End Effects

($000)

GAF UTILITY COST21,342,22222,986,81927,490,03733,008,73141,482,794

CAPITAL COST0548,2402,555,5946,858,70011,552,252

UTILITY COST21,342,22223,535,05830,045,63139,867,43153,035,046

PV UTILITY COST21,342,22217,298,97015,030,29613,573,30712,288,860

ACCUM. PV UTILITY21,342,22295,969,208174,500,964244,958,672308,999,216333,147,296

14% Reserve Margin20062010201520202025End Effects18% minus 14%20062010201520202025End EffectsTotal Savings

($000)($000)

GAF UTILITY COST21,342,22223,025,19627,561,45833,237,25041,720,906GAF UTILITY COST0(38,377)(71,422)(228,519)(238,112)

CAPITAL COST0273,4362,117,3196,027,28910,829,365CAPITAL COST0274,804438,275831,411722,888

UTILITY COST21,342,22223,298,63229,678,77839,264,54052,550,270UTILITY COST0236,426366,853602,891484,776

PV UTILITY COST21,342,22217,125,19014,846,77813,368,04712,176,532PV UTILITY COST0173,780183,518205,261112,328

ACCUM. PV UTILITY21,342,22295,756,018173,504,864243,009,356306,433,848333,628,920ACCUM. PV UTILITY0213,190996,1001,949,3162,565,368(481,624)2,083,744

12% Reserve Margin20062010201520202025End Effects18% minus 12%20062010201520202025End EffectsTotal Savings14% minus 12%20062010201520202025End EffectsTotal Savings

($000)($000)($000)

GAF UTILITY COST21,342,22223,076,64727,594,70633,248,23141,924,694GAF UTILITY COST0(89,828)(104,670)(239,500)(441,900)GAF UTILITY COST0(51,451)(33,248)(10,981)(203,788)

CAPITAL COST075,8871,966,9185,918,70010,366,393CAPITAL COST0472,353588,676940,0001,185,860CAPITAL COST0197,549150,401108,589462,972

UTILITY COST21,342,22223,152,53429,561,62439,166,93152,291,088UTILITY COST0382,524484,007700,500743,958UTILITY COST0146,098117,15497,609259,182

PV UTILITY COST21,342,22217,017,80414,788,17213,334,81512,116,476PV UTILITY COST0281,166242,124238,493172,384PV UTILITY COST0107,38758,60633,23260,056

ACCUM. PV UTILITY21,342,22295,589,416172,995,848242,196,928305,260,256332,930,880ACCUM. PV UTILITY0379,7921,505,1162,761,7443,738,960216,4163,955,376ACCUM. PV UTILITY0166,602509,016812,4281,173,592698,0401,871,632

9% Reserve Margin20062010201520202025End Effects18% minus 9%20062010201520202025End EffectsTotal Savings14% minus 9%20062010201520202025End EffectsTotal Savings12% minus 9%20062010201520202025End EffectsTotal Savings

($000)($000)($000)($000)

GAF UTILITY COST21,342,22223,076,35127,783,39533,772,05942,296,274GAF UTILITY COST0(89,532)(293,359)(763,328)(813,480)GAF UTILITY COST0(51,155)(221,937)(534,809)(575,368)GAF UTILITY COST0297(188,689)(523,828)(371,580)

CAPITAL COST001,462,9244,987,5639,736,111CAPITAL COST0548,2401,092,6701,871,1371,816,141CAPITAL COST0273,436654,3951,039,7261,093,254CAPITAL COST075,887503,994931,137630,282

UTILITY COST21,342,22223,076,35129,246,31938,759,62152,032,385UTILITY COST0458,708799,3121,107,8101,002,661UTILITY COST0222,282432,459504,919517,885UTILITY COST076,184315,305407,310258,703

PV UTILITY COST21,342,22216,961,80714,630,44113,196,14112,056,531PV UTILITY COST0337,163399,855377,166232,329PV UTILITY COST0163,384216,337171,906120,000PV UTILITY COST055,997157,731138,67459,945

ACCUM. PV UTILITY21,342,22295,533,418172,263,516240,746,836303,517,376333,475,928ACCUM. PV UTILITY0435,7902,237,4484,211,8365,481,840(328,632)5,153,208ACCUM. PV UTILITY0222,6001,241,3482,262,5202,916,472152,9923,069,464ACCUM. PV UTILITY055,998732,3321,450,0921,742,880(545,048)1,197,832

18%PEAKINSTALLEDNEWCOALCCNUCLCTIGCCWIND

LOADCAPACITYCAPACITY1000100010003201100415Planning PeriodEnd EffectsTotal Savings

2006116,649140,1801,470000000

2007118,642140,379125000000

2008121,792142,7752,732000000

2009123,453144,7492,148000500

2010125,572150,0145,260040100

2011127,701154,0073,500000500

2012129,395154,998960000300

2013134,180158,6083,640210200

2014135,149160,5531,960100300

2015136,940162,8432,320200100

2016139,271164,8132,000200000

2017141,174167,7683,000300000

2018143,590170,7233,000300000

2019148,900176,3185,640320200

2020149,350177,6231,320100100

2021151,970179,5932,000200000

2022154,549182,8683,320300100

2023156,663185,8233,000300000

2024162,393192,0586,280320400

2025163,570193,6831,640100200

Total Units:29903000

Cap. Added:29,0009,00009,60000

Total RM Capacity:47,600


LOADCAPACITYCAPACITY1000100010003201100415

2006116,649140,1801,470000000

2007118,642140,379125000000

2008121,792142,7752,732000000

2009123,453144,1091,508000300

2010125,572147,0542,940020000

2011127,701149,7672,220000100

2012129,395151,3981,600000500

2013134,180154,9683,600200500

2014135,149156,9382,000200000

2015136,940157,9231,000100000

2016139,271159,8932,000200000

2017141,174162,8483,000300000

2018143,590164,8182,000200000

2019148,900170,0535,280310400

2020149,350171,0381,000100000

2021151,970174,3133,320300100

2022154,549177,2683,000300000

2023156,663179,2382,000200000

2024162,393185,4736,280320400

2025163,570187,4181,960100300


Cap. Added:28,0005,00008,32000




2006116,649140,1801,470000000

2007118,642140,379125000000

2008121,792142,7752,732000000

2009123,453143,149568000000

2010125,572145,0541,900000300

2011127,701148,0872,540000200

2012129,395149,7581,640010200

2013134,180153,0083,280200400

2014135,149154,9782,000200000

2015136,940155,9631,000100000

2016139,271157,9332,000200000

2017141,174159,9032,000200000

2018143,590162,8583,000300000

2019148,900167,7734,960310300

2020149,350169,0781,320100100

2021151,970171,0482,000200000

2022154,549174,0033,000300000

2023156,663176,9332,960200300

2024162,393182,8485,960320300

2025163,570184,4731,640100200


Cap. Added:27,0004,00007,36000




2006116,649140,1801,470000000

2007118,642140,379125000000

2008121,792142,7752,732000000

2009123,453143,149568000000

2010125,572144,094940000000

2011127,701146,4871,900000000

2012129,395147,158640000200

2013134,180150,0882,960200300

2014135,149151,3931,320100100

2015136,940152,6981,320100100

2016139,271154,6682,000200000

2017141,174156,6382,000200000

2018143,590158,6082,000200000

2019148,900162,8434,280300400

2020149,350163,8281,000100000

2021151,970167,1033,320300100

2022154,549170,0583,000300000

2023156,663172,0282,000200000

2024162,393177,2635,280310400

2025163,570178,8881,640100200


Cap. Added:26,0001,00005,76000


Overall Summary

2006200620062006

2007200720072007

2008200820082008

2009200920092009

2010201020102010

2011201120112011

2012201220122012

2013201320132013

2014201420142014

2015201520152015

2016201620162016

2017201720172017

2018201820182018

2019201920192019

2020202020202020

2021202120212021

2022202220222022

2023202320232023

2024202420242024

2025202520252025

18% Rserve Margin Requirement




Year

MW

Installed Capacity

Central Summary

18% minus 14%

18% minus 12%

18% minus 9%

Year

($000)

Difference in Accumulated PV

East Summary

18% minus 14%

18% minus 12%

18% minus 9%

Year

($000)

Difference in PV Planning Period, PV End Effects, and PV Total (Planning Period + End Effects)

West Summary


($000)

GAF UTILITY COST7,270,7618,646,50210,026,36311,987,63015,004,992

CAPITAL COST0249,5081,362,7173,091,2324,954,614

UTILITY COST7,270,7618,896,01011,389,08015,078,86219,959,606

PV UTILITY COST7,270,7616,538,8335,697,3765,133,7654,624,882

ACCUM. PV UTILITY7,270,76134,833,10464,706,18091,235,256115,374,104100,150,536


($000)($000)

GAF UTILITY COST7,270,7618,671,72610,058,76412,003,50615,015,310GAF UTILITY COST0(25,224)(32,401)(15,876)(10,318)

CAPITAL COST0100,8261,183,5382,904,1894,796,200CAPITAL COST0148,682179,180187,043158,414



ACCUM. PV UTILITY7,270,76134,702,94864,154,52890,392,304114,329,16099,422,728ACCUM. PV UTILITY0130,156551,652842,9521,044,944727,8081,772,752


($000)($000)($000)

GAF UTILITY COST7,270,7618,703,18210,059,28212,002,41015,013,126GAF UTILITY COST0(56,680)(32,919)(14,780)(8,134)GAF UTILITY COST0(31,456)(518)1,0962,184

CAPITAL COST001,118,6172,850,7664,720,893CAPITAL COST0249,508244,100240,466233,721CAPITAL COST0100,82664,92153,42375,307



ACCUM. PV UTILITY7,270,76134,651,96063,927,98890,035,312113,859,71299,080,360ACCUM. PV UTILITY0181,144778,1921,199,9441,514,3921,070,1762,584,568ACCUM. PV UTILITY050,988226,540356,992469,448342,368811,816


($000)($000)($000)($000)


CAPITAL COST00970,2752,689,0314,578,265CAPITAL COST0249,508392,442402,201376,349CAPITAL COST0100,826213,262215,158217,935CAPITAL COST00148,342161,735142,628

UTILITY COST7,270,7618,703,18211,070,87814,713,86019,606,830UTILITY COST0192,828318,202365,002352,776UTILITY COST069,370171,424193,835204,680UTILITY COST00107,021139,316127,190

PV UTILITY COST7,270,7616,397,0995,538,1965,009,4964,543,139PV UTILITY COST0141,734159,180124,26981,743PV UTILITY COST050,98985,75565,99447,427PV UTILITY COST0053,53747,43229,472

ACCUM. PV UTILITY7,270,76134,651,96063,675,79289,561,792113,240,10498,528,344ACCUM. PV UTILITY0181,1441,030,3881,673,4642,134,0001,622,1923,756,192ACCUM. PV UTILITY050,988478,736830,5121,089,056894,3841,983,440ACCUM. PV UTILITY00252,196473,520619,608552,0161,171,624

Planning PeriodEnd EffectsTotal Savings

West Summary

2006200620062006

2007200720072007

2008200820082008

2009200920092009

2010201020102010

2011201120112011

2012201220122012

2013201320132013

2014201420142014

2015201520152015

2016201620162016

2017201720172017

2018201820182018

2019201920192019

2020202020202020

2021202120212021

2022202220222022

2023202320232023

2024202420242024

2025202520252025





Year

MW

Installed Capacity

23

23

23

23

70

70

70

70

827

827

827

827

750

110

110

110

2940

1940

940

940

960

320

320

0

320

640

1000

0

1640

1640

1320

1000

1320

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1640

1640

1320

1320

1320

1000

1320

1000

1000

1320

1000

1320

1320

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1640

1640

1640

1320

1320

1320

1320

1320

Central Runs

18% minus 14%

18% minus 12%

18% minus 9%

Year

($000)

Difference in Accumulated PV

East Runs

18% minus 14%

18% minus 12%

18% minus 9%

Year

($000)


West Runs


($000)

GAF UTILITY COST7,253,4498,343,56010,163,94411,798,17614,515,780

CAPITAL COST0298,731853,1922,263,7473,867,232

UTILITY COST7,253,4498,642,29111,017,13614,061,92318,383,012

PV UTILITY COST7,253,4496,352,3425,511,3114,787,5374,259,566

ACCUM. PV UTILITY7,253,44933,543,09862,670,22888,122,296110,534,00895,405,656


($000)($000)

GAF UTILITY COST7,253,4498,356,71310,079,63411,644,70514,324,941GAF UTILITY COST0(13,153)84,310153,471190,839

CAPITAL COST0172,610933,7822,281,4713,896,464CAPITAL COST0126,122(80,590)(17,723)(29,232)



ACCUM. PV UTILITY7,253,44933,460,06462,334,00887,633,664109,830,17694,395,872ACCUM. PV UTILITY083,034336,220488,632703,8321,009,7841,713,616


($000)($000)($000)

GAF UTILITY COST7,253,4498,376,70810,112,36411,656,78214,528,480GAF UTILITY COST0(33,148)51,580141,394(12,700)GAF UTILITY COST0(19,995)(32,730)(12,077)(203,539)

CAPITAL COST075,887848,3012,208,7233,489,651CAPITAL COST0222,8454,89155,024377,581CAPITAL COST096,72385,48172,747406,813



ACCUM. PV UTILITY7,253,44933,344,45062,051,53287,229,360109,245,92894,022,296ACCUM. PV UTILITY0198,648618,696892,9361,288,0801,383,3602,671,440ACCUM. PV UTILITY0115,614282,476404,304584,248373,576957,824


($000)($000)($000)($000)


CAPITAL COST00492,6491,923,8533,472,511CAPITAL COST0298,731360,543339,894394,720CAPITAL COST0172,610441,133357,617423,952CAPITAL COST075,887355,652284,87017,140

UTILITY COST7,253,4498,376,41210,752,38113,761,64918,008,866UTILITY COST0265,880264,755300,274374,146UTILITY COST0152,912261,035164,527212,538UTILITY COST076,184208,284103,8569,266

PV UTILITY COST7,253,4496,156,9135,378,8684,685,3064,172,872PV UTILITY COST0195,429132,444102,23286,694PV UTILITY COST0112,395130,58356,01549,248PV UTILITY COST055,997104,19435,3592,147

ACCUM. PV UTILITY7,253,44933,288,45261,571,39686,444,848108,419,14493,723,696ACCUM. PV UTILITY0254,6461,098,8321,677,4482,114,8641,681,9603,796,824ACCUM. PV UTILITY0171,612762,6121,188,8161,411,032672,1762,083,208ACCUM. PV UTILITY055,998480,136784,512826,784298,6001,125,384


West Runs

2006200620062006

2007200720072007

2008200820082008

2009200920092009

2010201020102010

2011201120112011

2012201220122012

2013201320132013

2014201420142014

2015201520152015

2016201620162016

2017201720172017

2018201820182018

2019201920192019

2020202020202020

2021202120212021

2022202220222022

2023202320232023

2024202420242024

2025202520252025





Year

MW

Installed Capacity

870

23

23

23

0

70

70

70

0

827

827

827

940

110

110

110

2320

1940

940

940

640

320

320

0

640

640

1000

0

2000

1640

1320

1000

640

1000

1000

1000

320

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

2000

1640

1320

1320

0

1000

1320

1000

1000

1320

1000

1320

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

2640

1640

1640

1320

320

1320

1320

1320

Savings vs Load

18% minus 14%

18% minus 12%

18% minus 9%

Year

($000)

Difference in Accumulated PV for Planning Period

bath Tub

18% minus 14%

18% minus 12%

18% minus 9%

Year

($000)



($000)

GAF UTILITY COST6,818,0125,996,7577,299,7309,222,92511,962,022

CAPITAL COST00339,6861,503,7212,730,407

UTILITY COST6,818,0125,996,7577,639,41510,726,64614,692,428

PV UTILITY COST6,818,0124,407,7963,821,6103,652,0053,404,413

ACCUM. PV UTILITY6,818,01227,593,00647,124,55665,601,12083,091,104137,591,104


($000)($000)

GAF UTILITY COST6,818,0125,996,7577,423,0609,589,03912,380,655GAF UTILITY COST00(123,331)(366,114)(418,633)

CAPITAL COST000841,6302,136,701CAPITAL COST00339,686662,091593,706

UTILITY COST6,818,0125,996,7577,423,06010,430,66914,517,356UTILITY COST00216,355295,977175,072

PV UTILITY COST6,818,0124,407,7963,713,3783,551,2373,363,847PV UTILITY COST00108,231100,76940,566

ACCUM. PV UTILITY6,818,01227,593,00647,016,32864,983,38882,274,512139,810,320ACCUM. PV UTILITY00108,228617,732816,592(2,219,216)(1,402,624)


($000)($000)($000)

GAF UTILITY COST6,818,0125,996,7577,423,0609,589,03912,383,088GAF UTILITY COST00(123,331)(366,114)(421,066)GAF UTILITY COST0000(2,433)

CAPITAL COST000859,2112,155,849CAPITAL COST00339,686644,510574,558CAPITAL COST000(17,581)(19,148)

UTILITY COST6,818,0125,996,7577,423,06010,448,25014,538,936UTILITY COST00216,355278,396153,492UTILITY COST000(17,581)(21,580)

PV UTILITY COST6,818,0124,407,7963,713,3783,557,2223,368,847PV UTILITY COST00108,23194,78335,566PV UTILITY COST000(5,986)(5,001)

ACCUM. PV UTILITY6,818,01227,593,00647,016,32864,932,25682,154,616139,828,224ACCUM. PV UTILITY00108,228668,864936,488(2,237,120)(1,300,632)ACCUM. PV UTILITY00051,132119,896(17,904)101,992


($000)($000)($000)($000)

GAF UTILITY COST6,818,0125,996,7577,423,0609,909,43412,731,355GAF UTILITY COST00(123,331)(686,509)(769,333)GAF UTILITY COST000(320,395)(350,700)GAF UTILITY COST000(320,395)(348,267)

CAPITAL COST000374,6781,685,334CAPITAL COST00339,6861,129,0421,045,072CAPITAL COST000466,951451,367CAPITAL COST000484,532470,514

UTILITY COST6,818,0125,996,7577,423,06010,284,11214,416,689UTILITY COST00216,355442,534275,739UTILITY COST000146,557100,667UTILITY COST000164,138122,247

PV UTILITY COST6,818,0124,407,7963,713,3783,501,3403,340,521PV UTILITY COST00108,231150,66663,892PV UTILITY COST00049,89723,326PV UTILITY COST00055,88328,326

ACCUM. PV UTILITY6,818,01227,593,00647,016,32864,740,19681,858,128141,223,888ACCUM. PV UTILITY00108,228860,9241,232,976(3,632,784)(2,399,808)ACCUM. PV UTILITY000243,192416,384(1,413,568)(997,184)ACCUM. PV UTILITY000192,060296,488(1,395,664)(1,099,176)


2006200620062006

2007200720072007

2008200820082008

2009200920092009

2010201020102010

2011201120112011

2012201220122012

2013201320132013

2014201420142014

2015201520152015

2016201620162016

2017201720172017

2018201820182018

2019201920192019

2020202020202020

2021202120212021

2022202220222022

2023202320232023

2024202420242024

2025202520252025





Year

MW

Installed Capacity

576.9

576.9

576.9

576.9

55

55

55

55

1905

1905

1905

1905

457.7

457.7

457.7

457.7

0

0

0

0

1900

1900

1900

1900

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1000

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1000

1000

0

0

1000

0

1000

0

2000

2000

2000

1000

0

0

0

0

0

1000

0

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

0

1000

0

2000

2320

2000

2000

0

0

0

0

201020102010

201520152015

202020202020

202520252025

18% minus 14%

18% minus 12%

18% minus 9%

Year

($000)

Difference in Accumulated PV for Planning Period

18% minus 14%

18% minus 12%

18% minus 9%

Year

($000)


Alternative Allowance

1st YearTotalIncremental

Coal2013151

CC2010152

Nuclear201811

CT2009163

IGCC201300

Wind200800


Proview Optimal PlanProview Capital and Production CostsPre and Post Proview Load and Resource

PEAKINSTALLEDNEWCOALCCNUCLCTIGCCWIND20062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025End EffectsBefore Proview Solution20062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

LOADCAPACITYCAPACITY1000100010003201100415($000)

200645,78854,11823000000GAF UTILITY COST7,270,7617,903,1428,057,6138,514,0088,646,5029,066,4569,282,1559,557,3999,567,11810,026,36310,424,88210,447,15010,864,23711,438,74111,987,63012,452,92813,106,80513,879,83314,222,68515,004,992ENERGY REQUIREDGWH254,618259,074263,609268,222272,916277,690282,550287,494292,526297,645302,854308,154313,547319,033324,617330,298336,076341,959347,944354,030

200746,56054,18270000000CAPITAL COST00049,118249,508321,243339,641705,9831,047,3001,362,7171,681,5372,003,8602,329,7932,725,4543,091,2323,426,0863,801,0684,143,2424,566,2494,954,614PEAK LOADMW45,78846,56047,85548,69549,52250,31850,78152,16153,10254,03854,87655,41456,35157,88458,93459,93460,89861,49363,12964,271

200847,85555,011827000000UTILITY COST7,270,7617,903,1428,057,6138,563,1268,896,0109,387,6999,621,79610,263,38210,614,41811,389,08012,106,41912,451,01013,194,03014,164,19415,078,86215,879,01416,907,87218,023,07418,788,93419,959,606INSTALLED CAPACITYMW53,57253,63654,46554,58055,52155,52255,53555,53555,53555,53555,53555,53555,53555,53555,53555,53555,53555,53555,53555,535

200948,69555,766750000200PV UTILITY COST7,270,7617,317,7246,908,1046,797,6856,538,8336,389,1106,063,3645,988,5855,734,6405,697,3765,607,6155,340,0255,239,5315,208,1455,133,7655,005,7284,935,2474,871,0774,701,9134,624,882RESERVE MARGINPCT17.0015.2013.8112.0812.1110.349.366.474.582.771.200.22-1.45-4.06-5.77-7.34-8.81-9.69-12.03-13.59

201049,52258,7072,940020000ACCUM. PV UTILITY7,270,76114,588,48421,496,58828,294,27234,833,10441,222,21647,285,58053,274,16459,008,80464,706,18070,313,79275,653,81680,893,34486,101,48891,235,25696,240,984101,176,232106,047,312110,749,224115,374,104100,150,536LOSS LOADHOURS0000000000000000382139

201150,31859,668960000300

201250,78160,001320000100

201352,16161,6261,640100200With Proview Solution20062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

201453,10262,9311,320100100(18% Minimum RM Required)

201554,03863,9161,000100000ENERGY REQUIREDGWH254,618259,074263,609268,222272,916277,690282,550287,494292,526297,645302,854308,154313,547319,033324,617330,298336,076341,959347,944354,030

201654,87664,9011,000100000PEAK LOADMW45,78846,56047,85548,69549,52250,31850,78152,16153,10254,03854,87655,41456,35157,88458,93459,93460,89861,49363,12964,271

201755,41465,8861,000100000INSTALLED CAPACITYMW54,11854,18255,01155,76658,70759,66860,00161,62662,93163,91664,90165,88666,87168,49669,80170,78672,09173,07674,70176,006

201856,35166,8711,000100000RESERVE MARGINPCT18.1916.3714.9514.5218.5518.5818.1618.1418.5118.2818.2718.9018.6718.3318.4418.1118.3818.8418.3318.26

201957,88468,4961,640100200LOSS LOADHOURS00000000000000000000

202058,93469,8011,320100100

202159,93470,7861,000100000

202260,89872,0911,320100100

202361,49373,0761,000100000

202463,12974,7011,640100200

202564,27176,0061,320100100


Cap. Added:13,0002,00005,12000







200746,56054,18270000000CAPITAL COST0000100,826124,297174,717545,553862,8941,183,5381,507,5841,835,1342,166,2922,567,1792,904,1893,280,1583,624,2743,972,5744,401,7084,796,200PEAK LOADMW45,78846,56047,85548,69549,52250,31850,78152,16153,10254,03854,87655,41456,35157,88458,93459,93460,89861,49363,12964,271




201150,31857,388320000100

201250,78158,041640000200




201654,87662,6211,000100000PEAK LOADMW45,78846,56047,85548,69549,52250,31850,78152,16153,10254,03854,87655,41456,35157,88458,93459,93460,89861,49363,12964,271



201957,88466,2161,640100200LOSS LOADHOURS00000000000000000000

202058,93467,2011,000100000

202159,93468,5061,320100100

202260,89869,4911,000100000

202361,49370,4761,000100000

202463,12972,1011,640100200

202564,27173,4061,320100100


Cap. Added:13,0001,00003,52000







200746,56054,18270000000CAPITAL COST0000026,054132,352476,769796,0411,118,6171,444,5951,774,0772,107,1682,476,9812,850,7663,193,6263,540,5483,891,6554,323,5954,720,893PEAK LOADMW45,78846,56047,85548,69549,52250,31850,78152,16153,10254,03854,87655,41456,35157,88458,93459,93460,89861,49363,12964,271



201049,52256,067940000000ACCUM. PV UTILITY7,270,76114,588,48421,496,58828,254,86034,651,96040,887,24846,842,86052,719,55258,336,25663,927,98869,440,65674,695,75279,854,31284,978,38490,035,31294,972,97699,836,248104,642,896109,287,104113,859,71299,080,360LOSS LOADHOURS0000000000000000382139

201150,31856,388320000100

201250,78157,4011,000010000




201654,87661,6611,000100000PEAK LOADMW45,78846,56047,85548,69549,52250,31850,78152,16153,10254,03854,87655,41456,35157,88458,93459,93460,89861,49363,12964,271



201957,88464,9361,320100100LOSS LOADHOURS00000000000000000000

202058,93466,2411,320100100

202159,93467,2261,000100000

202260,89868,2111,000100000

202361,49369,1961,000100000

202463,12970,8211,640100200

202564,27172,1261,320100100

Total Units:1310700

Cap. Added:13,0001,00002,24000







200746,56054,18270000000CAPITAL COST0000000320,186643,579970,2751,300,3731,633,9761,971,1872,345,1212,689,0313,071,9003,422,9163,778,1174,175,8894,578,265PEAK LOADMW45,78846,56047,85548,69549,52250,31850,78152,16153,10254,03854,87655,41456,35157,88458,93459,93460,89861,49363,12964,271




201150,31856,0680000000

201250,78156,0810000000




201654,87660,0211,000100000PEAK LOADMW45,78846,56047,85548,69549,52250,31850,78152,16153,10254,03854,87655,41456,35157,88458,93459,93460,89861,49363,12964,271



201957,88463,2961,320100100LOSS LOADHOURS00000000000000000000

202058,93464,2811,000100000

202159,93465,5861,320100100

202260,89866,5711,000100000

202361,49367,5561,000100000

202463,12968,8611,320100100

202564,27170,1661,320100100

Total Units:1300400

Cap. Added:13,000001,28000




Coal2013151

CC2010152

Nuclear201811

CT2009163

IGCC201300

Wind200800








200941,68547,730940000300PV UTILITY COST7,253,4497,022,8866,613,7396,300,6826,352,3426,171,0465,966,8465,841,8205,636,1095,511,3115,417,1515,240,5935,108,4214,898,3654,787,5374,661,9834,565,4134,502,2774,422,4614,259,566RESERVE MARGINPCT18.3216.3413.0112.2010.319.547.923.682.962.350.48-1.12-2.75-6.57-6.16-7.86-9.45-10.90-14.33-14.93


201143,14851,186640000200

201243,81351,844640000200


201445,92554,469640000200(18% Minimum RM Required)

201546,20054,789320000100ENERGY REQUIREDGWH207,757211,392215,092219,427222,686226,583230,549234,584238,688242,867247,115251,440255,840260,317264,872269,508274,223279,022283,905288,875

201647,05955,7741,000100000PEAK LOADMW39,51140,17241,38541,68542,40143,14843,81345,60845,92546,20047,05947,82148,62050,61150,38651,31752,22153,06755,19755,581



201950,61159,7292,000110000LOSS LOADHOURS00000000000000000000

202050,38659,7290000000

202151,31760,7141,000100000

202252,22161,6991,000100000

202353,06762,6841,000100000

202455,19765,3092,640110200

202555,58165,629320000100

Total Units:9501400

Cap. Added:9,0005,00004,48000











201143,14849,2260000000

201243,81350,204960000300




201647,05954,1191,000100000PEAK LOADMW39,51140,17241,38541,68542,40143,14843,81345,60845,92546,20047,05947,82148,62050,61150,38651,31752,22153,06755,19755,581



201950,61157,7141,640100200LOSS LOADHOURS00000000000000000000

202050,38657,7140000000

202151,31758,6991,000100000

202252,22159,6841,000100000

202353,06760,6691,000100000

202455,19762,9742,320110100

202555,58163,614640000200


Cap. Added:10,0002,00004,48000







200740,17246,7380000000CAPITAL COST000075,88799,991151,044550,155867,419848,3011,179,0591,513,3211,851,1922,258,7902,208,7232,564,2592,923,8562,968,7773,533,3753,489,651PEAK LOADMW39,51140,17241,38541,68542,40143,14843,81345,60845,92546,20047,05947,82148,62050,61150,38651,31752,22153,06755,19755,581




201143,14848,546320000100

201243,81349,204640000200




201647,05953,1191,000100000PEAK LOADMW39,51140,17241,38541,68542,40143,14843,81345,60845,92546,20047,05947,82148,62050,61150,38651,31752,22153,06755,19755,581



201950,61156,7141,640100200LOSS LOADHOURS00000000000000000000

202050,38656,7140000000

202151,31757,6991,000100000

202252,22158,6841,000100000

202353,06759,644960000300

202455,19761,9492,320110100

202555,58162,269320000100

Total Units:9101600

Cap. Added:9,0001,00005,12000







200740,17246,7380000000CAPITAL COST00000053,672455,403473,965492,649831,1321,173,1191,518,7151,967,0431,923,8532,286,2662,652,7403,023,3993,513,1523,472,511PEAK LOADMW39,51140,17241,38541,68542,40143,14843,81345,60845,92546,20047,05947,82148,62050,61150,38651,31752,22153,06755,19755,581




201143,14847,2660000000

201243,81347,924640000200




201647,05951,4941,000100000PEAK LOADMW39,51140,17241,38541,68542,40143,14843,81345,60845,92546,20047,05947,82148,62050,61150,38651,31752,22153,06755,19755,581



201950,61155,4091,960100300LOSS LOADHOURS00000000000000000000

202050,38655,4090000000

202151,31756,3941,000100000

202252,22157,3791,000100000

202353,06758,3641,000100000

202455,19760,3091,960100300

202555,58160,629320000100

Total Units:9001400

Cap. Added:9,000004,48000




Coal2013151

CC2010152

Nuclear201811

CT2009163

IGCC201300

Wind200800






200731,91039,45955000000CAPITAL COST000000000339,686332,897686,4811,043,6741,536,1401,503,7211,471,3011,856,6522,246,1872,792,5402,730,407PEAK LOADMW31,34931,91032,55233,07333,64934,23534,80136,41136,12236,70337,33637,93938,61940,40540,02940,71941,43142,10344,06743,718

200832,55240,9951,905000000UTILITY COST6,818,0126,884,4176,283,7655,801,5065,996,7576,093,5206,312,9516,566,6906,946,4847,639,4158,065,4588,556,8209,278,66310,155,44910,726,64611,272,43412,068,50413,007,23813,961,66014,692,428INSTALLED CAPACITYMW39,31439,45940,99541,25341,25343,15343,15343,15343,15343,15343,15343,15343,15343,15343,15343,15343,15343,15343,15343,153

200933,07341,253458000000PV UTILITY COST6,818,0126,374,4605,387,3154,605,4224,407,7964,147,1473,978,2303,831,6013,752,9693,821,6103,735,8683,669,8733,684,6853,734,1383,652,0053,553,5413,522,6813,515,4533,493,8923,404,413RESERVE MARGINPCT25.4023.6625.9424.7322.6026.0524.0018.5219.4617.5715.5813.7411.746.807.805.984.162.49-2.08-1.29


201134,23543,1531,900000000

201234,80143,1530000000

201336,41143,1530000000With Proview Solution20062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025



201637,33644,1380000000PEAK LOADMW31,34931,91032,55233,07333,64934,23534,80136,41136,12236,70337,33637,93938,61940,40540,02940,71941,43142,10344,06743,718



201940,40548,0932,000110000LOSS LOADHOURS00000000000000000000

202040,02948,0930000000

202140,71948,0930000000

202241,43149,0781,000100000

202342,10350,0631,000100000

202444,06752,0482,000110000

202543,71852,0480000000

Total Units:720000

Cap. Added:7,0002,0000000







200731,91039,45955000000CAPITAL COST00000000000360,372353,170859,843841,6301,229,0191,620,4701,585,8022,185,1172,136,701PEAK LOADMW31,34931,91032,55233,07333,64934,23534,80136,41136,12236,70337,33637,93938,61940,40540,02940,71941,43142,10344,06743,718




201134,23543,1531,900000000

201234,80143,1530000000




201637,33643,1530000000PEAK LOADMW31,34931,91032,55233,07333,64934,23534,80136,41136,12236,70337,33637,93938,61940,40540,02940,71941,43142,10344,06743,718


201838,61944,1380000000RESERVE MARGINPCT25.4023.6625.9424.7322.6026.0524.0018.5219.4617.5715.5816.3414.2914.1515.2215.6916.0814.2314.3615.28

201940,40546,1232,000110000LOSS LOADHOURS00000000000013321422

202040,02946,1230000000

202140,71947,1081,000100000

202241,43148,0931,000100000

202342,10348,0930000000

202444,06750,3982,320110100

202543,71850,3980000000

Total Units:520100

Cap. Added:5,0002,000032000







200731,91039,45955000000CAPITAL COST000000000000371,183877,640859,211840,7821,240,1231,643,6482,203,9912,155,849PEAK LOADMW31,34931,91032,55233,07333,64934,23534,80136,41136,12236,70337,33637,93938,61940,40540,02940,71941,43142,10344,06743,718




201134,23543,1531,900000000

201234,80143,1530000000




201637,33643,1530000000PEAK LOADMW31,34931,91032,55233,07333,64934,23534,80136,41136,12236,70337,33637,93938,61940,40540,02940,71941,43142,10344,06743,718

201737,93943,1530000000INSTALLED CAPACITYMW39,31439,45940,99541,25341,25343,15343,15343,15343,15343,15343,15343,15344,13846,12346,12346,12347,10848,09350,07850,078


201940,40546,1232,000110000LOSS LOADHOURS000000000001133116433

202040,02946,1230000000

202140,71946,1230000000

202241,43147,1081,000100000

202342,10348,0931,000100000

202444,06750,0782,000110000

202543,71850,0780000000

Total Units:520000

Cap. Added:5,0002,0000000







200731,91039,45955000000CAPITAL COST0000000000000382,319374,678772,6401,174,6641,150,5691,722,1951,685,334PEAK LOADMW31,34931,91032,55233,07333,64934,23534,80136,41136,12236,70337,33637,93938,61940,40540,02940,71941,43142,10344,06743,718




201134,23543,1531,900000000

201234,80143,1530000000




201637,33643,1530000000PEAK LOADMW31,34931,91032,55233,07333,64934,23534,80136,41136,12236,70337,33637,93938,61940,40540,02940,71941,43142,10344,06743,718

201737,93943,1530000000INSTALLED CAPACITYMW39,31439,45940,99541,25341,25343,15343,15343,15343,15343,15343,15343,15343,15344,13844,13845,12346,10846,10848,09348,093

201838,61943,1530000000RESERVE MARGINPCT25.4023.6625.9424.7322.6026.0524.0018.5219.4617.5715.5813.7411.749.2410.2610.8111.299.519.1310.01

201940,40544,1381,000100000LOSS LOADHOURS000000000001528333222402433

202040,02944,1380000000

202140,71945,1231,000100000

202241,43146,1081,000100000

202342,10346,1080000000

202444,06748,0932,000110000

202543,71848,0930000000

Total Units:410000

Cap. Added:4,0001,0000000


WestWest

West

PEAK2010201520202025

LOAD33648.67187536702.98437540029.4179687543717.7968752010201520202025

201033648.67187518%-14%02.948752038615.43195058418.6787088639

201536702.98437518%-12%02.948752038616.709311150221.4212075388

202040029.4179687518%-9%02.948752038621.507282485928.203068044

202543717.796875

East

2010201520202025

East18%-14%1.95830990637.27752671219.697796497912.6631824951

East18%-12%4.685000677613.391757381117.721949470423.1748373309

0PEAK201020152020202518%-9%6.005681821823.784365094633.29202618738.050143762

0LOAD42400.8476562546199.7617187550385.8789062555580.97265625

201042400.84765625

201546199.76171875

202050385.87890625Central

202555580.97265625

2010201520202025

18%-14%2.628237739510.208643395314.303209543616.2582813069

Central18%-12%3.657837495714.400898793220.360649802823.5624216656

Central18%-9%3.657837495719.067933499328.395337167133.202901121

0PEAK2010201520202025

0LOAD49522.1562554037.7382812558934.4648437564271.4921875

201049522.15625

201554037.73828125Total

202058934.46484375

202564271.49218752010201520202025

Total18%-14%1.69775547457.273962879213.052019484815.6835843695

201020152020202518%-12%3.024503715810.991022902218.491787119222.8584338052

125571.67578125136940.484375149349.76171875163570.2617187518%-9%3.470448230416.338835153228.201156476833.5136713874

Central18% minus 14%20062010201520202025End EffectsTotal Savings

($000)

GAF UTILITY COST0-25224-32401-15876-10318

CAPITAL COST0148681.8515625179179.5187043.25158414

UTILITY COST0123458146778171167148096

PV UTILITY COST09074573425.558275.534315.5

ACCUM. PV UTILITY013015655165284295210449447278081772752

18% minus 12%20062010201520202025End EffectsTotal Savings

($000)

GAF UTILITY COST0-56680-32919-14780-8134

CAPITAL COST0249508.1875244100240466233721

UTILITY COST0192828211181225686225586

PV UTILITY COST01417341056437683752271

ACCUM. PV UTILITY01811447781921199944151439210701762584568


($000)

GAF UTILITY COST0-56680-74240-37199-23573

CAPITAL COST0249508.1875392441.875402201376349

UTILITY COST0192828318202365002352776

PV UTILITY COST014173415918012426981742.5

ACCUM. PV UTILITY018114410303881673464213400016221923756192

East18% minus 14%20062010201520202025End EffectsTotal Savings

($000)

GAF UTILITY COST0-1315384310153471190839

CAPITAL COST0126121.859375-80590.3125-17723.25-29232

UTILITY COST01129683720135747161608

PV UTILITY COST083034.5186146216.537446.5

ACCUM. PV UTILITY08303433622048863270383210097841713616


($000)

GAF UTILITY COST0-3314851580141394-12700

CAPITAL COST0222844.8906254890.555024377580.5

UTILITY COST018969656471196418364880

PV UTILITY COST013943228249.566872.584547

ACCUM. PV UTILITY0198648618696892936128808013833602671440


($000)

GAF UTILITY COST0-32851.5-95788-39620-20574

CAPITAL COST0298731.46875360542.5339894.125394720.25

UTILITY COST0265879.5264755300274374146

PV UTILITY COST0195429132443.5102231.586694

ACCUM. PV UTILITY025464610988321677448211486416819603796824

West18% minus 14%20062010201520202025End EffectsTotal Savings

($000)

GAF UTILITY COST00-123330.5-366114-418633

CAPITAL COST00339685.5625662090.6875593705.5

UTILITY COST00216355295977175072

PV UTILITY COST00108231.25100768.540566.25

ACCUM. PV UTILITY00108228617732816592-2219216-1402624


($000)

GAF UTILITY COST00-123330.5-366114-421066

CAPITAL COST00339685.5625644509.8125574558

UTILITY COST00216355278396153492

PV UTILITY COST00108231.259478335565.75

ACCUM. PV UTILITY00108228668864936488-2237120-1300632


($000)

GAF UTILITY COST00-123330.5-686509-769333

CAPITAL COST00339685.56251129042.031251045072.125

UTILITY COST00216355442534275739

PV UTILITY COST00108231.25150665.563892

ACCUM. PV UTILITY001082288609241232976-3632784-2399808

Total


($000)

GAF UTILITY COST0-38377-71421.5-228519-238112

CAPITAL COST0274803.7109375438274.75831410.6875722887.5

UTILITY COST0236426366853602891484776

PV UTILITY COST0173779.5183517.75205260.5112328.25

ACCUM. PV UTILITY021319099610019493162565368-4816242083744


($000)

GAF UTILITY COST0-89828-104669.5-239500-441900

CAPITAL COST0472353.078125588676.0625939999.81251185859.5

UTILITY COST0382524484007700500743958

PV UTILITY COST0281166242123.75238492.5172383.75

ACCUM. PV UTILITY03797921505116276174437389602164163955376


($000)

GAF UTILITY COST0-89531.5-293358.5-763328-813480

CAPITAL COST0548239.656251092669.93751871137.156251816141.375

UTILITY COST0458707.579931211078101002661

PV UTILITY COST0337163399854.75377166232328.5

ACCUM. PV UTILITY0435790223744842118365481840-3286325153208

18%-14%

18%-12%

18%-9%

Year

Savings/Load

West

18%-14%

18%-12%

18%-9%

Year

Savings/Load

East

18%-14%

18%-12%

18%-9%

Year

Savings/Load

Central

18%-14%

18%-12%

18%-9%

Year

Savings/Load

Total

-18-17-16-15-14-13-12-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-10123456789101112131415161718192021

221.4200.4180.6162144.6128.4113.499.68775.665.456.448.64236.632.429.427.62727.629.432.436.64248.656.465.475.68799.6113.4128.4144.6162180.6200.4221.4243.6267291.6

27

MISO is expanding its planning “futures” to cover a wide range of possible outcomes

Futures “bookend” a range of economic, political and technological possibilities

They help ensure that any new recommended transmission provides benefits and value, regardless of specific future developments

Future #1

Future #3

“Current Trends”The footprint develops in line with utility announcements/plans, along with State mandates, goals, or preferences.

“Accelerated Fleet Change”Changing federal & state policies reduce emissions to XX%. EV adoption increase & electrification begins and drives a [40%] increase in energy demand.

“Advanced Electrification”Changing federal & state policies will support carbon emissions reduction of [80%] or more. Increased electrification occurs increasing energy demand by [70%].

Future #2

Illustrative Only – Draft from Ongoing Discussions

28

Since the MVP

Documents

Preparing for the Grid of the Future · 2020-03-02 · Preparing for the Grid of the Future Energy Development and Transmission Committee, North Dakota Legislature February 13, 2020