Preparing for the Tokai Earthquake

Mark SimpsonMulticultural Affairs Division

Today’s Schedule

11:15am~12:00pm

Earthquake Presentation and Video

No Earthquake Truck..

Further English Information:

http://www.e-quakes.pref.shizuoka.jp/center/guidebook/english/index.html

Main source of information (Japanese):http://www.pref.shizuoka.jp/bousai/4higaisoutei/shiryou.html

Mechanisms of an Earthquake

Tectonic plates cover the surface of the Earth 15 major plates 4 plates lie under Japan (and 　 3 meet in Shizuoka

Prefecture)

Mechanisms of an Earthquake

Tectonic plates can move up to 10cm a year Energy is released when plates bump and slide

Earthquake Measurements

Richter Scale (1-10) Represents an

earthquake's overall energy and size.

Japanese Scale of Seismic Intensity (1-7) Represents the size of

tremors that happen at a specific location.

0 Cannot feel tremors

1 Slight tremors if indoors

2 Tremors if indoors

3 Tremors if indoors, people may be frightened

4 Almost all who are sleeping will be awoken

Weak 5 Some will have difficulty moving around

Strong 5 Most will have difficulty moving around

Weak 6 Difficult to remain standing

Strong 6 Impossible to stand; must crawl to move

7 Impossible to control any movements

Earthquake Patterns

From the Tokai area to the Shikoku region, earthquakes reoccur every 100-150 years

The last Tokai earthquake was in 1854 (=159 years since last earthquake)

Historic Earthquakes

August 11, 2009

Magnitude 6.5 Seismic Intensity of weak 6 in Izu City,

Makinohara, Yaizu, and Omaezaki Strong 5, weak 5, or 4 in most of Shizuoka

Prefecture Tsunami of 60cm off the coast of Yaizu (6

minutes after the initial quake) Not related to the predicted Tokai Earthquake

August 11, 2009 (5:07a.m.)

August 1, 2011

Magnitude 6.1 Seismic Intensity of weak 5 in Shizuoka City,

Shimizu and Ito Seismic Intensity of 3 or 4 in most of

prefecture 13 injured and 27 houses damaged No tsunami generated Not related to the predicted Tokai Earthquake

August 1, 2011 (11:58p.m.)

The Main Earthquakes

Based on a quake at middle of night in winter

Category/Location Suruga/Nankai Trough Sagami Trough

Level 1 Tokai EarthquakeTokai/Tonankai EQTokai/Tonankai/Nankai

M8 Kanto Quake

Level 2 Nankai Trough Superquake

M8.2 Kanto Quake

Sagami Trough Level 1 Level 2

Shindo 7 Area 42km2 109km2

1cm or more tsunami 7.4km2 21.1km2

2m or more tsunami 1.1km2 4.3km2

Houses collapsed/burned 14,000 21,000

Deaths 3,000 6,000

Number of deaths from tsunami

2,900 5,700

Nankai Trough Level 1(Tokai Earthquake)

Level 2(Nankai Superquake)

Shindo 7 Area 344km2 344 to 732km2

1cm or more tsunami 28.8km2 158km2

2m or more tsunami 9.0km2 68.5km2

Houses collapsed/burned 260,000 300,000

Deaths 16,000 105,000 　⇒ 14,000

Number of deaths from tsunami

9,000 96,000

What is actually going on?

Eurasian Plate Philippine Sea Plate

What is actually going on?

Can it be predicted?

Use strain gauges and GPS altimeters 14 Volume strain gauges 8 Multi-component strain gauges 197 GPS facilities

Types of strain gauge

● 　 Volume strain gauge ▲ ◆　 Multi-component strain gauge

What can we tell with GPS?

Tokai Advisory/Warning

When an Earthquake Occurs

Stay calm Protect yourself Turn off your gas Secure an exit Stay away from windows or heavy objects

After an earthquake

Stay calm and be aware of aftershocks If in a low lying area, IMMEDIATELY seek

higher ground Fill your bathtub if possible Turn off your electricity at the mains Grab your emergency kit Head to your nearest evacuation centre

-BUT leave a note on your door explaining where you are!!!

Emergency Kit

Stockpile Items

Safety Measures Do not place large objects where you sleep Secure large objects (cabinets, televisions,

refrigerators) if possible Protective film on glass doors and windows

Evacuation Centers

Tsunami Evacuation Centers

Dengon Dial

Activated after a disaster Call 171, then 1, then your phone number to

record a message Message length 30 seconds, up to 10 Call 171, then 2, then their phone number to

listen to up to 10 recorded messages Need a land line phone number

Tsunami Tidal Waves

Tidal waves of up to 33min are expected to hit Shizuoka Prefecture before the shaking even subsides

Evacuate to high ground IMMEDIATELY following a large earthquake!

Tsunami Tidal Waves

Tsunami Arrival Time

Liquefaction

Large area of Shizuoka Prefecture to be affected

52% of Fukuroi City at risk Places closer to water have greatest risk

Tokai – Tonankai – Nankai

Tokai – At any moment Tonankai - 10% within 10 years

60% within 30 years80-90% within 50 years

Nankai – 10% within 10 years40% within 30 years60% within 50 years

(2004 est.)

Advanced Warning System

March 15, 2011 (10:31p.m.)

Magnitude 6.4, Depth of 14km. Seismic Intensity of strong 6 in Fujinomiya

City Seismic Intensity 3-5 in most of prefecture No tsunami generated Not related to the predicted Tokai Earthquake

Eruption possibility?

All 5 mag. 9+ quakes of 2nd half of 20th century resulted in a major eruption with 3 years.

A magma pocket is thought to be situated 15km beneath Fujinomiya.

Continuous flow of water for months after. New fault discovered capable of Mag. 7 directly

under Mt. Fuji – more research needed.

Other types of natural disasters

Typhoons Landslides Nuclear related? Keikaku Teiden (Scheduled Blackouts)

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