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Preparing the workforce to
meet the challenge of
technology
PIAAC Research Conference, Rome
Andreas Schleicher
Director for Education and Skills, OECD
2
Digitalisation
Democratizing
Concentrating
Particularizing
Homogenizing
Empowering
Disempowering
The post-truth world where reality becomes fungible
• Virality seems privileged over quality in the distribution of information
• Truth and fact are losing currency
Scarcity of attention and abundance of information
• Algorithms sort us into groups of like-minded individuals create echo chambers that amplify our views, leave us uninformed of opposing arguments, and polarise our societies
3
Digitalisation
Democratizing
Concentrating
Particularizing
Homogenizing
Empowering
Disempowering
4
Digitalisation
Democratizing
Concentrating
Particularizing
Homogenizing
Empowering
Disempowering
The new nature of the firm
• Digital “platform” technology drives the (re)organisation of firms
• Small units of employment with global reach require re-think of what “small” means (employment or revenue to market share)
• Peer-to-peer markets are blurring the distinction between a consumer and a business
• Governments work with platforms to implement policies
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
Pe
ru
Slo
vak
Rep
ub
lic
Lith
uan
ia
Me
xico
Turk
ey
Gre
ece
Jap
an
Ger
man
y
Ecu
ado
r
Slo
ven
ia
Ch
ile
Spai
n
Kaz
akh
stan
Cyp
rus¹
Hu
nga
ry
Ital
y
Po
lan
d
Fran
ce
Ru
ssia
n F
ed
era
tio
n²
OEC
D a
vera
ge
Cze
ch R
epu
blic
Au
stri
a
Isra
el
Ko
rea
Esto
nia
Ire
lan
d
Flan
der
s (B
elg
ium
)
Can
ada
Sin
gap
ore
No
rth
ern
Irel
and
(U
K)
Net
her
lan
ds
De
nm
ark
Un
ite
d S
tate
s 2
01
7
Engl
and
(U
K)
Un
ite
d S
tate
s 2
01
2/2
01
4
Au
stra
lia
Swed
en
Fin
lan
d
New
Zea
lan
d
No
rway
High likelihood of automation (>70%) Significant likelihood of automation (50-70%)
Percentage of workers
Likelihood of automation or significant change to jobs
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038
Conservative - Demand Regulated - Demand Disruptive - Demand Baseline - Demand
Conservative - Supply Regulated - Supply Disruptive - Supply Baseline - Supply
m.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038
Conservative - Demand Regulated - Demand Disruptive - Demand Baseline - Demand
Conservative - Supply Regulated - Supply Disruptive - Supply Baseline - Supply
m.
Projected supply and demand for truck drivers
6
US Europe
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038
Conservative - Demand Regulated - Demand Disruptive - Demand Baseline - Demand
Conservative - Supply Regulated - Supply Disruptive - Supply Baseline - Supply
m.
Source: ITF (2017), Managing the Transition to Driverless Road Freight transport, Paris.
Skills and the risk auf automation
Australia
Austria
Canada
Chile
Cyprus¹
Czech Republic
Denmark
Ecuador
England (UK)
Estonia
Flanders (Belgium)
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Japan
Kazakhstan
KoreaLithuania
Mexico
Netherlands
Northern Ireland (UK)
OECD average
Peru
Poland
Russian Federation²
Singapore
Slovak Republic
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Turkey
United States 2012/2014
United States 2017
R² = 0.273
170
190
210
230
250
270
290
310
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70
Risk of automation
Skill
s (P
IAA
C N
um
era
cy)
Tasks
without
use of ICT
Tasks with
use of ICT
Non routine tasks
Routine tasks
Non routine tasks
Routine tasks
Tasks
without
use of ICT
Tasks with
use of ICT
TWO EFFECTS OF DIGITALISATION
Non routine tasks,
Low use of ICT
Non routine tasks,
High use of ICT
Routine tasks,
Low use of ICT
Routine tasks,
High use of ICT
Non routine tasks,
Low use of ICT
Non routine tasks,
High use of ICT
Routine tasks,
Low use of ICT
Routine tasks,
High use of ICT
TWO EFFECTS OF DIGITALISATION
(C)
ADDITIONAL RETURNS TO SKILLS IN DIGITAL-INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES
Source: OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2017 , Statlink: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888933617472
See: Grundke et al. (2018), Which skills for the digital era? Returns to skills analysis
0
2
4
6
8
10
12%
Returns to skills in less digital-intensive industries
Additional returns to skills in digital-intensive industries
not significant
EXPECTED EFFECT OF INCREASE FROM 50TH TO 75TH PCTILE OF DIGITAL EXPOSURE ON
PROBABILITY OF LEARNING AT LEAST ONCE A WEEK
0%
20%
40%
60%
Learning from co-workers Learning by doing Keeping up to date
ICT USE AND NON-ROUTINE INTENSITY
ENHANCE FORMS OF LEARNING
ICT INTENSITY
NON-ROUTINE INTENSITY
Source: Survey of Adult Skills (2012, 2015)
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
EcuadorPeru
TurkeyMexico
KazakhstanGreece
ChilePoland
LithuaniaRussian Federation²
Slovak RepublicIreland
IsraelUnited States 2012/2014
SloveniaHungary
Northern Ireland (UK)United States 2017
OECD averageEstonia
England (UK)Australia
KoreaCanadaAustria
Czech RepublicFlanders (Belgium)
GermanyJapan
New ZealandNorway
NetherlandsDenmark
SingaporeSwedenFinland
55-65 Level 2 55-65 Level 3
Level 2 Level 3
%
Skills to manage complex digital informationOlder adults (55-65)Young adults (25-34)
The kind of things that are easy to teach are now easy
to automate, digitize or outsource
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 2009
Routine manual
Nonroutine manual
Routine cognitive
Nonroutine analytic
Nonroutine interpersonal
Mean task input in percentiles of 1960 task distribution
Education won the race with technology throughout history, but there is no automaticity it will do so in the future
Inspired by “The race between technology and education” Pr. Goldin & Katz (Harvard)
Industrial revolution
Digital revolution
Social pain
Universal public schooling
Technology
Education
Prosperity
Social pain
Prosperity
The multi-faceted world of knowledge
The human world of knowledge
The small world of the curriculum
The small world of the curriculum
The small world of the curriculum
The small world of the curriculum
The small world of the curriculum
The small world of the curriculum
The TrueThe realm of human knowledge The Good
The realm of ethics and judgementThe Just and Well-Ordered
The realm of political and civic life, binding social capital
The BeautifulThe realm of creativity,
esthetics and designThe SustainableThe realm of natural and physical health The Prosperous
The realm of economic life
The big world of learning
Learning Compass: Competencies
• Knowledge
• Skills
• Attitudes
and values
24
Learning compass: Knowledge
• Disciplinary
• Interdisciplinary
• Epistemic
• Procedural
25
Learning compass: Skills
• Cognitive & meta-
cognitive
• Social & emotional
• Physical & practical
26
Transformative competencies
• Creating new value
• Taking responsibility
• Reconciling tensions & dilemmas
27
Implications for pedagogy
• Anticipation
• Action
• Reflection
28
Redefining success
Learning, unlearning and relearning throughout life
Primary and
secondary
education
Job:
Same sector
age
From:
To:
age
Job
Adult upskilling and reskilling
Tertiary:
specialise
Retire
and
pension
Primary and
secondary
education
ECEC Tertiary:
transversalJob Job Job Job
JobJob
BUT: LOW-SKILLED ARE
LESS LIKELY TO PARTICIPATE IN TRAINING
0
20
40
60
80
Source: Survey of Adult Skills (2012, 2015)
SHARE OF WORKERS WHO PARTICIPATED IN ON-THE-JOB TRAINING IN THE PREVIOUS YEAR
BY EDUCATION LEVEL (%)
tertiary – master/research
degree
lower secondary or less
Financial measures do not reach the groups most in need
Note: High-skilled adults score at level 5 or above in literacy and/or numeracy, while low-skilled adults score below level 2 in literacy and/or numeracy.Source: OECD (2018), OECD calculations based on Survey of Adults Skills database (PIAAC) (2012, 2015), www.oecd.org/skills/piaac.
% of employees receiving employer financial support for education or training, by skills level, 25-64 year-olds
39
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90%
low skilled high skilled
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100%
Participated, but does not want to participate (more)
Did not participate, and does not want to participate
Willingness to participate in adult learning is low
Source: OECD calculations based on OECD (2017) Survey of Adults Skills database (PIAAC) (2012, 2015).
Adults not willing to participate, % of 25-64 year-olds, 2012/2015
17
Firms as learning environments
• How is the additional funding shared between Governments, employers and beneficiaries?
• What are the incentives?
• Who sets the standards?
• How are the levels of skills recognised?
• Who trains the trainers?
CERTIFYING SKILLS DEVELOPMENT IN A DIGITAL WORLD
• The digital transformation expands and diversifies education, training and learning opportunities.
• The certification of skills becomes increasingly important: employers need clear signals on workers’ skills.
• Firms are increasingly testing skills on their own while relying less on diplomas. How to certify skills and who should be in charge of it?
• Preferred option: Independent regulated systems for skills certification?
People outside firms
• Unemployed: Government. Funding for unemployment benefits, used for training?
• People at high risk of losing their jobs: firms or Government?
• People who want to change jobs
• Gig economy
Governance challenges
• New forms of work: fewer taxes raised
• Ageing societies: higher expenditure in health and pensions
• Decentralised information: less control
• Link between education and jobs weakened: the role of Governments risks been diminished
• Need to predict rapid changes in skills demands and respond to them
Routine cognitive skills
Complex ways of thinking, complex ways of
doing, collective capacity
Some students learn at high levels (sorting) All students need to learn at high levelsStudent inclusion
Curriculum, instruction and assessment
Standardisation and compliance High-level professional knowledge workersTeacher education
‘Tayloristic’, hierarchical Flat, collegialWork organisation
Primarily to authorities Primarily to peers and stakeholdersAccountability
Industrial systems World class systems
When fast gets really fast, being slow to adapt
makes education really slow
Find out more about our work at www.oecd.org/pisa
– All publications
– The complete micro-level database
Email: [email protected]
Twitter: SchleicherOECD
Wechat: AndreasSchleicher
Thank you
