Presentation ISIL

ISIL Advancement and the US Response

By Chase LaChimiaCenter for Adaptation and Innovation

7/28/15

© 2015 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies

ISIL Continues to Spread

Despite US and coalition efforts, ISIL is expanding


Funding/Wealth

• Oil sales are ISIL’s primary source of income ($263 million a year)• ISIL also profits millions a year from extortion, taxation, kidnapping, and

looting• ISIL is estimated to have a total income of $3 million per day or $1.09 billion

a year

This revenue stream is used to finance its military operations, training camps, recruitment efforts and the civil service it provides as part of being a state

Recruitment/Ideology• Despite US allegedly killing 12,500 ISIL fighters, CIA claims there are

between 20,000 and 31,500 ISIL fighters• Predominantly Sunni army consisting of volunteers and conscripts• Of the 20,000 foreign fighters, more than half come from only 5

countries

© 2015 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies Foreign fighters flow to Syria


Training Camps

• Set up in most robust governorates like Iraq, Syria, Egypt and Libya• Camps operate in conventional ways

- weapons handling, martial arts, small arms operation simulation- exercise, obstacle courses, physical fitness- religious indoctrination

• Recruits treated brutally by instructors


US Strategy?AIRSTRIKES TRAIN & EQUIP

• Airstrikes have made little gains against ISIL and are a game of whack-a-mole

• US has trained and equipped mostly Iraqi Security Forces to fight ISIL

• Furthermore, the administration is only allowing ground forces (mainly SOF) to advise and assist, not accompany


Policy Recommendation 1:Economic Incentives

• US military begins talks with moderate Sunni tribes and their Sheikh leaders.

• Offer: Promise the tribes that the US will help grow its businesses and facilitate trade if they agree to fight ISIL

• Incentive: Sunni tribes, with the goal of becoming rich and powerful, will want to take land and resources away from ISIL

• This worked with the Sunnis and Kurds


Economic Incentives cont.

ISIL oil, wheat and water facilities

Oil Facility

Oil Field

Water Facility

Wheat Facility


Policy Recommendation 2:Increased Military Intervention

• Advise, Assist, AND Accompany will allow for more gains against the Islamic State

• More conventional ground forces are needed

• Increased intervention but not on the scale of 2003 OIF


Conclusion

• This is a Sunni on Sunni fight• The adaptation and sophistication of ISIL calls

for a more involved military presence • A more economically and politically prominent

Sunni population will not only stamp out ISIL but could contribute to a more inclusive Iraqi government

Documents

Presentation ISIL