The Rise of ISIL

8/19/2019 The Rise of ISIL

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Objective

This assessment brings together t he m os t significant trends in global terrorism Identified by ITAC n 2014,

Executive Summary

Terrorism threat to anada and U SIn 2 14 anada and the United States U.S. experienced lone-actor, terrorist attacks from extremists who wereinspired by messaging from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant ISIL and al Qaida AQ .

Increased levels of terrorism in Western Europe n 2 14 West European countries faced an increasing terrorism threat from inspired Islamist extremists.

AG versus ISILThe ongoing dispute between AQ and ISIL escalated throughout 2014, following aI-Zawahlris expulsion of ISILfrom AQ. ISIL’s dramatic terntorial g ai ns a nd subsequent declaration of an Islamic caliphate in June 2014

ISIL.’s Influence gaining ground In AfricaMost African theatres of violent iliad were characterized by political upheaval, relatively low levels of governmentpresence and a general absence o f p ub li c security. Diffusion of the terrorism threat in Africa was furtheraggravated by the growing influenceof the lSlL.

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ASSESSMENT NOTEThis paper references muitlpLe ITAC reports that remain relevant

It is based on a review of a wide variety of sources

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The rise of ISIL and the increasing number of inspiredattacks in the West


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CONTENT

MESSAGINGSocial Media comes of age as a toot for terrorists Pages 3 4

CANADA and the UNITED STATESThe growing extremist threat from lone actor/small scale tt ks Pages 5 6

WESTERN EUROPE

Extremist travellers returnees and inspired attacks Pages 7 8

ASIASustained counter terrorism pressure and the growing influence of S Pages 9 12

MIDDLE EAST S emerging as centre of gravity for international terrorism Pages 3 16

AFRICA

Terrorist groups d ptingto lSlLs

h llengeto AQa le dership Pages 17 20

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MESSAGINGSocial Media comes of age as a tool for terronsts

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ISIL and AQ social media exploitation 1. OnlIne resources such as English-languagejihadi magazines e.g. Islamlà State of Iraq and TheLevant’s ISIL) Dabiq an d Al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula’s AQAP) Inspire

2014 has seen a rise In the exploitation of social media tools to disseminate extremist messaging and propaganda

ISIL propaganda and extremist messagingV

4. Extremist messaging continues to emphasize a move towards less complex, small scale plots, againstsoft targets undertaken by individuals already based In the West

ISIL and AQAP signature magazines respectively Dabiq an d Inspire,

ISIL’s messaging

5. Military victories on the battlefield, mass executions of enemies an d The beheading of Western hostagesare examples of occasions which provide the video and still images that give ISIL propaganda

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CANADAand the UNITEDSTATESThe growing extremist threat from Ione actorlsmall s l attacksCanada and U.S. targeted in 2014

8. In 2014, Canada a nd th e United States(U.S.) experienced lone-actor, terroristattacks from extremists who were inspiredby messaging from ISIL and AQ.

These relatively simplerattacks are charactensed by lesspreparation and planning,

Inspired terrorist attacks in Canada arethe principal terrorism threat to thecountry

Messaging from both ISIL andAQ has called for direct attacks In Canadaand the U.S. The two terrorist attacks thattook place in Canada on 2014 10 20 and2014 10 22 featured lone actors targetinguri lfomied soldier s and a federalgovernment ns1ltution. Both attacks

demonstratedthat

ISIL has successfullyinspired Individuals to target theirhomeland

Attack in St Jean sur Rlchelieu: On 2014 10 20, MärdñZCauture-Rouleaudrove his car Into three members of the

.Canadian Armed Forces (CAP) in a parking lot ri St Jean sur.Jt1eHeu Quebec. On e soldier was killed. Couture-RouIØaU

f i t h scene but was killed by pursuingpolice after crashing :his vehicle 4 kms away.

(TH14 125)

MichaelZehaf Bibeau

Attack in Ottawa: On 2014 10 22 MichaelZehaf Blbeau shot ‘tand killed a uniformed soldierstanding guard a tthe NationalWa r Memorial in Ottawa. He then attacked Parliament Illforcing his way into Parliament’sCentre Block before he wasshot and kllled by security guards

(TH141127)

Martin Couture Roulaau

Extremist travellers leave Canada andU.S.10. Canada and the U.S. continue to be asource of exiremist travellers,withviolent jihadin countries hke Syria, Iraqand Somalia.

Canadian and U.S. citizens travelling overseas to wage

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WESTERN EUROPEExtremist travellers, returnees and inspired attacks

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Terrorist attacks in Western Europe16.

There were tour successful ISILInspired lone-actor/small scale attacks nWestern Europe see text box and at leastsix disrupted plots. One attack n 2 01 4 w asperpetrated by a returnee wh o fought withISIL in Syria.

Locally..based extremist activity18. In 2014, West European countries lacedan increasing terrorism threat from inspiredIsiamist extremists.

Movement of West European extremisttravellers — SyrIa and Iraq19. West Europeans travelling to Syria andIraq to join ISIL as well as AQ affiliateJabhat Al-Nusra JN ,

During 2014,. the movement ofextremist travellers hi Western Europe toand from Syria/Iraq continued,

n 2014,the established travel facilitation networksalong the Turkey-Syria border, continued tooperate

Terrorist attacksm Westenppef 44 15

.201405 24, Belgium, Brussels ISIL returnee Mehdl Nemniouche, a French national, attacked.the Jewish Museum,

2014 12 20, France Jouó-les-Tours — ISIL supporter, FrenchBurundian, Bertrand Nzohabonayoattacked police officer.

2 i4 1221 France Dijon A ma n yelled AUahu Akbar” oye acar into crowds. .

i2O14 1222 France Nantes A ma n yelled AJlahu Akbar” drovejO-vn into shoppers.

2Q-1501 02, France Metz —A ma n attacked a police officer . yelling Allahu Akbar”.

2015 01 06, Turkey Istanbul A female suicide bomber ; 9ked a police station.

‘2Oj 01 07, Frances Paris — Brothers, Said an d Cherlf KouaØtl jwith1lnks to ‘AQ in Yemen”, attacked the offices of Charlie

Hebdo

2016 01 07, France near Paris — An indIvIdual shot a joggerii The gun wa s traced to lSlL supporter Amedy Coulibaly

.201501 08, France Paris —Amedy Coullbaly, an associatofb Kouachi brothers, attacked a policewoman. .

• .

201501 08, France Paris — Amedy Coulibaly blewup a car s i n g explosives. .

201601 09, France Paris — Amedy Coulibaly held hostages iflaJewish store

20150203 France Nice Mousse Coulibaly unrelated toAmedy attacked a soldier near a Jewish center

201602 14, Denmark Copenhagen — ISIL supporter OmarAbdel Hamid El-Hussein attacked polices officers guarding a freespeech event attended by Swedish cartoonist Lars Vllks.

201502 15, Denmark Copenhagen — Omar El-Husseinattacked security guard and police officers near a Jewishsynagogue.

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Numbers of Western extremist travellers20. While estimates vary, the bulk of Western extremisttravellersare from Europe (Western and Eastern Europe),including indMduals from Russia.

The anti-ISIL coalitionairstrikes that began in September 2 01 4 h av e n otdeterred prospective ISIL fighters from attempting to travel toSyria.

Extremist traveller returnees21. The movementof extremist travellersfrom Western Europe to Syria and Iraq has been Increasingyear on yearsince 2011

the arrests in ear ly 2015 of aniSlL-affihiatedgroup in Belgium,have heighteriedconcernin the West of returnees from Syria and Iraq.

22. An example of the returnee threat inWestern Europe was when Frenchnational and Syria returnee MehdlNemmouche conducted an attack on2014 05 24 at the Jewish Museum inBrussels Belgium. He used• aKalashnikovrifle, and shot and kUled fourpersons.

At thet ime o fthe shooting, he wa s on a Frenchterrorist watch -l is t, but

hadtraveled

t hr ou gh o th er European countries toreach Belgium, thus avoiding detection.He wa s subsequen tly ar res ted andexiradited to Belgium where he awaitstrial.

Countering the terrorism threat toWestern Europe23. In 2014 West European authoritiescamed ou t a number of counter-terrorism(CT) operations. These operations wereprimarily directed agaUist suspects withknown or suspected ties to terroristgroups such as ISIL or who may havebeen inspired by ISIL’s messaging tocarry-out attacks n Europe. As areflection of the growing terrorist threat toEurope, between 2013 and 2014 anumber of European countries raised theirdomestic threat level

Significant aflests and cheies In 2014

2014, Belgium Holland Police in Brussels arrested twoDLltch nationals of Turkish origin a w om an a nd a men m

pñpèction to a plot to target th e E ur op ea n U n i o ñ UoImissIon Belgian police conducted a subsequent operation

r Wetlng an apartment in Brussels while Dutch policecondctedr’a raid in The Hague and seized jihadist material

2014 11, Austria: Police in Austria arrested 13 people suspaCte(tofr4dicalizliigyoung people andrecruiting them to fight in Syria.Authoritiesalso seized errorist propaganda materlal.

Q 4 11, UK: British police arrested three suspects during— operations in the London area The suspects were alleged to have been seeking to carry out an Imminent” ISIL-Insplred

attack to behead a member of the public.

2014 11, UK: Four men appeared in court on charges of plotting to murder police officers or soldiers in London in the name 01:

ISIL

2014 11, Franca A charity accused of being a front for financingterrOr1sm in Syria was shut down and two of its leaders chargedwith financingterrorism,

2014 10, Belgium: Prosecutors laid terrorismcharges against 46members of Sharla4Belgium,a group implicated in radicalizationas well as recruitment of foreign fighters, tundraising, andfacilitationefforts.


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Sustained counter terrorism pressure and the growing Influence of ISIL

Paklstanl fghanlstan

Impact of Pakistan’s counter terrorismoperations on AQ activities24. Counter-terrorism pressure on AQ inPakistan Increased in Summer 2014 withth e launch of a large-scale militaryground offensive hi North WaziristanAgency NWA .

New AQ affiliate AQIS27. n eptember 2014. AC publicly announced theformation of a new affiliate organization, l Qaida nthe Indian Subcontinent AQIS . ACtS w s formedfrom the amalgamat ion of a number of smallerextremis t groups n Pakistan

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29. In the first 10 months of 2014, almost 4,500 indivIduals were killed by terrorist attacks that occurred acrossPakistan. During 2014 Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan U was t he m o at active terrorist group conducting,attacks inPakistan with attacks mostly aimed at Pakistani interests. n 2014, conducted several high profile attacksnotably:

a. n June 2014, TT P militants attacked a terminal at Jinnah InternationalAirport in Karachi;

b. In early November 2014, a suic ide bomber attacked a check post, a t th e Wagah international bordercrossing India-Pakistan in Punjab; this attack was claimed by TT P splinter group .Jamaat uI-Ahrar ,JuA ;

c. In December 2014, sIx TIP terrorists attacked a military-run school Army Public School and DegreeCollege in Peshawar. There were over 140 casualtIes.

Defections from TIP and the Influence of ISIL

31. Th e UP , an umbrella group of several looselyallied tribal and regional factions,

32. n August 2014, a TIP faction announced theformation of a break away group Jamaat ul-Ahrar JuA , which aims to establish an Islamic caliphate nthe Indian subcontInent,

Open source reportingfrom October 2014, indicated that on e of TTP’a centralspokesmen an d five TIP leaders had also pledgedallegiance to ISIL. In 2015,

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Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan — Splitting along AQ and ISIL lines

TIP leader MulIsh Fazlullah

Source: GujfNews

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ISIL emerging as centre of gravity for international terrorism

Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant

The rise of ISIL in 12 months 44. Th e expulsion of ISIL from AQ in early 2014 followed a protracted conflIct between extremist groups àñd thestage foi’ the mid 2014 declaration of the Caliphate in Syria an d Iraq. ISIL’s declaration established a more violentalternative to the global extremist movement represented by AQ. By the beginning ot 2015 ISII. became thepreeminent terrorist group in direct competition with AG. ISIL has successfully expañded’lnto’Nqrt Africa theArabian Peninsula Pakistan and Afghanistan an d Indonesia by accepting the oaths of aIleLance of severalterrorist groups in these regions.

anuaryFebruary

June

July

August

• October

• October• December

• December

ISIL starts Kobani campaign

ISIL starts gaining support from groups n Africa and the LevontISIL Inspired extremists plan/executeattacks n Canada the U.S. and Europe

Foreign fighters continue to join in large numbers

Extremist travelers and foreign fighters46 . During 2 14 the number of foreign fighters entering Syria and Iraq to estimated 19 000 by December mostjoining ISIL especially after the July 2014 declaration of the Islamic State

ThenseoflSlLin2Ol4

ISIL gaIns control ofReqqah

AQ severs t ies with ISIL

ISIL gains control of Mosul

Al-Baghdadl declares the Caliphate focuses on clear build and govern strategy ;

S begins air strikes against ISIL ISIL murders S citizen James Foley

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lED events In ebanon j g of 25November 2014

ebanon

lzb ll h

62 Hlzballah rem ins highly supportive of the Assad regime inSyria. In une 2014 l ll h began fighting along the ebanese border with extremists vAio h d crossed from Syria

Into Lebanon. ISIL moved into northernLebanon.

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AFRICATerrorist groups adapting to ISIL’s challenge to AQ’s leadership

66. In 2014, n addition to ongoing threats from AQ-affihiated groups èuch à Shabaab AS in Somalia andKenya; AQ in the Islamic Maghreb AQIM , and its offshoot, the Al-Murabitoun.battalion, both aqtivó n the Maghreband Sahel regions, there was a rise in violence in Nigeria from Boko Haram. 8H , in Egypt from AM , tn Tunisiafrom an AQIM battalion and Ansar al Shana in Tunisia AAS-T and in Ubys from varoass MS factions Thesegroups have at times helped each other by exchanging weapons, tactical knowledge,media expeiliac, and fighters.Most African theatres of violent jihad were characterized by political upheaval, rela elylowJevel ‘of 9ovemmentpresence, and a general absence of public security. Diffusion of the terrorism threat Ih’AftlOa’,aS furtheraggravated by the growing Influence of the ISIL.

Somalia Al Shabaab’s iesurgence

6 7. A S remained the most prominent terroristthreat n East Africa n 2014. After its military setbacks and losses ofterritory a t th e hands of Ethiopian and AMISOM forces, AS made a strong comeback with an urban terrorismcampaign, carrying out attacks in Somalia and Kenya. The group maintains a core of trained, devoted fighters inSomalia who regularly attack the Somali government and its international partners.

68. AS planned and carried out the May 2014 attack on a ChaumiéreRestaurant in Djibouti, which killed 3 peopleand injured more. The attack was intended to target Westerners and put pressure on governments to withdrawmilitary forces from Somalia.

69. AS remains a threat but a lso faces considerable challenges. Over the las t few years, several key AS figureshave been killed Including AS Emir Bilal Abmed Abdi Godane in September 2014.

The Sahel AQ n the Islamic Maghreb’s continued menace70. n 2014, despite the ongoing UN Multidimensional integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali MINUSMA thethreat from AQ n the Islamic Maghreb AQIM remains. AQIM has regained large parts of its former safe haven nthe north

Since May2 14 there have been over 28 attacks, including from improvised explosive devices IEDS an d rocket attacks onUN personnel. In October n the deadliest attack yet on UN troops n Mali, nine Nigerlen UN peacekeepers werekilled by the MUJAO.

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Tunisia A continued terrorist threat In the Birthplace of the Arab Spring

Egypt — Worsening Security Envnonrnent

80.Egypts most capable terrorist

group Ansar Bayt aI-Maqdis ABM aka Ansar Jerusalem , carried out anumber of successful attacks in the Sinai an d mainland Egypt. Theseincluded the bombing of Cairo police headquarters and a MANPAD

76. In 2 14 Libya continued to attract extremists

Tb. b ech Chambi Mountain Range in Tunisia red and orange

zones , where AQIM Uqbah binNafi Battalion Is predomInantly

located.

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HANDLING NSTRU T ONS

This document is the property of the integrated TerroriSm.Asseesment Centre ITAC , Prepared by ITAC, itIs derived from various sources with Informatiofleft tivö êofthó at e of publication. Itis provided to youragency/department in confidence and may be further disseminated by your agency/department those withappropriate security clearances and appropriate sec st ñis to retain the Information. It must not bereclassified or reused In any way, in whole or In p rt NithoutlhecOnsent of the originator.

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The Rise of ISIL