Presentation to BAC Platinum Day

Deficit to stay for the coming decade

René Hochreiter March 2008

Private and Confidential

Platinum Mines and Projects of South AfricaPlatinum Mines and Projects of South Africa

78% World P d ti

Lebowa

Production

+95% Global

Ga-PhashaResources to 3 000m depth

Mines

Projects

Private and Confidential2

Resources Summary - ProducersResources Summary Producers

Ounces Market

Producers ResourcesMt

Grade4 Element g/t

Ouncesmillions 4E

pgm

Capitalisation per Ounce - US$(ZAR/$ 7.80)

Anglo Platinum 6,288 4.9 884 43

Implats 1,170 4.8 *263 104

Aquarius 98 4.2 44 88Aquarius 98 4.2 44 88

Northam 98 6.1 129 17

Lonmin 1,457 4.5 204 50

Explorers 1,243 3.5 353 19

TOTAL Bushveld Complex 10,821 1,877 47

* Total 463moz of which 200moz located in Zimbabwe

Private and Confidential3

Total 463moz, of which 200moz located in Zimbabwe

Resources Summary - ExplorersResources Summary Explorers

Producers Grade Ounces Market Capitalisation per Ounce - US$Producers 4 Element g/t millions 4E pgm per Ounce - US$

(ZAR/$ 7.00)

Ridge 2.5 48 5

Anooraq 3.8 105 7Anooraq 3.8 105 7

AIM Resources 2.0 1 86

Eastern Platinum 4.3 95 39

Jubilee 3 8 23 5Jubilee 3.8 23 5

Platmin 4.2 17 46

Platinum Australia 3.6 16 34

Nkwe 3.8 29 5

Wesizwe 5.5 11 61

PTM Platinum Group Metals 5.5 5 42

Caledonia 2.1 0.7 138

Sylvania 0.7 1.8 316

TOTAL Bushveld Complex 353 19

Private and Confidential4

Value of the remaining resources in the Bushveld at recent market metal pricesmarket metal prices

Remaining Resources in the Bushveld = 21.4 billion oz 4 PGM

Total value in today’s prices = USD 46 trillion

(Pt $2150/ Pd $564/ Rh $8980/ A $872/ Ni $12 5/lb)(Pt $2150/oz, Pd $564/oz, Rh $8980/oz, Au $872/oz, Ni $12.5/lb)

Private and Confidential5

Platinum MarketPlatinum Market

Supply is the key to the platinum marketSA Miners production problems

Longer term, new production will likely limit price gainsg , p y p g

Demand extremely firmNew announcements (Daihatsu, Mazda) “nothing new”

Strong economic growth in developing countries

Steady diesel vehicle demand – Europe, US increasing

Miners shielded from production losses due to prices & currency

Private and Confidential6

SA Producer Problems 2007SA Producer Problems 2007

Pt (million ounces) Actual 2007 production Beginning 2007 Pt (million ounces) Actual 2007 production Expectation

Anglo Platinum 2.45 2.90

Lonmin 0.82 1.00

Impala 1.15 1.10

Northam 0.18 0.225

Difference Total 0 625m ounces

Only Implats had a good year

Difference Total 0.625m ounces

A shortage equal to almost 10% of the annual platinum market

Private and Confidential7

SA Producer Problems 2008SA Producer Problems 2008

Pt (million ounces) Likely 2008 production Beginning 2008 Pt (million ounces) Likely 2008 production Expectation

Anglo Platinum 2.24 2.30

Lonmin 0.75 0.80

Impala 0.95 1.15

Northam 0.16 0.18

Difference Total 0 330m ounces

AngloPlats already announced 0.15m oz on bad 2007 results, we expect even greater disappointment. Implats has issued a warning. Lonmin has face length

Difference Total 0.330m ounces

g pp p g gproblems, Northam has geological problems. All have power and skills problems

2009 will not be up either, maybe PPRust, Two Rivers and Elands

Private and Confidential8

Platinum Supply and Demand (JM 2007 Report)

7,000

Platinum Supply and Demand (JM 2007 Report)

‘000 oz 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

6 000

6,500Total Supply 5,970 6,200 6,490 6,650 6,785 6,660

of which: South Africa 4,450 4,630 5,010 5,115 5,290 5,220

5,500

6,000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Russia 980 1,050 845 890 880 820

North America 390 295 385 365 345 340

Others 150 225 250 280 270 280Total Supply Total Demand

Others 150 225 250 280 270 280

Total Demand 6,470 6,530 6,540 6,690 6,775 6,925

f hi h A t t l tof which: Autocatalyst: gross 2,590 3,270 3,490 3,820 4,195 4,235

recovery (565) (645) (690) (770) (855) (885)

J ll 2 820 2 510 2 160 1 965 1 605 1 595Jewellery 2,820 2,510 2,160 1,965 1,605 1,595

Movement in Stocks (500) (330) (50) (40) 10 (265)

Private and Confidential9

Platinum Demand/Supply Outlook (Allan Hochreiter)Platinum Demand/Supply Outlook (Allan Hochreiter)

(000 oz) 2006 2007 2010 2015 202015,000 (000 oz)

Demand Total 6,775 7,468 9,388 11,518 13,5649,000

11,000

13,000

of which: Autocats 4,195 4,684 5,757 7,114 8,349

Jewellery 1,605 1,650 2,000 2,476 2,871 5,000

7,000

2006 2007 2010 2015 2020

Supply Total 6,785 6,893 8,035 10,516 13,249

of which: AngloPlat 2 931 2 474 2 663 3 100 3 532

Total Supply Total Demand

0

of which: AngloPlat 2,931 2,474 2,663 3,100 3,532

Implats 1,702 1,821 1,965 1,974 2,120

-1500

-1000

-500

Supply shortfall/surplus 10 -645 -1,354 -1,002 -315

Surplus Shortfall

-20002006 2007 2010 2015 2020

Private and Confidential10

Explorers (‘000 oz Pt) - planned but will it happen?Explorers ( 000 oz Pt) planned but will it happen?6000

Letsego platinum

4500

5000

5500 Platinum Australia

Eastern Platinum (other than Barplats)

Sylvania

AIM Resources

3500

4000Caledonia

AfriOre

PTM

Wesizwe

2000

2500

3000 Afplats

Elands

Nkwe

Platfields

1000

1500African Minerals

Pan Palladium

Jubilee

Platmin

0

500

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

Anooraq

Ridge

Private and Confidential11

Producers (‘000 oz Pt) – planned but will it happen?Producers ( 000 oz Pt) planned but will it happen?

9,000Northam

7,000

8,000

Northam

Lonplats

Implats

5,000

6,000Anglo Platinum

3,000

4,000

1 000

2,000

,

0

1,000

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

Private and Confidential12

Impact on platinum marketImpact on platinum market

How deep the jewellery ETF volumes (ounces)demand can fall? My indications: demand will need t i b l 1 7 / 450 000

500,000

550,000

( )

to remain below 1.7m oz/yr, and maybe even decline to 1 0m oz /yr to balance supply 350,000

400,000

450,000

1.0m oz /yr to balance supply

ETF impact?200 000

250,000

300,000Palladium

100,000

150,000

200,000Platinum

50,00007

/11/

1407

/11/

19

07/1

1/24

07/1

1/29

07/1

2/04

07/1

2/09

07/1

2/14

07/1

2/19

07/1

2/24

07/1

2/29

08/0

1/03

08/0

1/08

08/0

1/13

08/0

1/18

08/0

1/23

08/0

1/28

08/0

2/02

08/0

2/07

08/0

2/12

08/0

2/17

08/0

2/22

Private and Confidential13

Impact – price projections, revenues and marginsImpact price projections, revenues and margins

Price projection end 2008 – on record at USD 1750/oz avg. with USD 1520 and 2200 limits view of price outlook now: averaging USD 2050/oz for remainder of 2008.

Average price year to date: USD 1800/oz

Basket price – recently R550 000/kg or USD 2200/oz, cash costs averaging R118 421/kg in latest results, R181 949/kg with capex.

Spot margins averaging 81% on SA producers latest results for 2007 (inflation costs can reduce this to 78% in 2008) Cash costs are(inflation costs can reduce this to 78% in 2008). Cash costs are R416/ton, R639/ton with capex in latest results.

Private and Confidential14

R/t Cash Cost – Recent price R2200/tR/t Cash Cost Recent price R2200/t

R/t

700

800

900

400

500

600

700

200

300

400

0

100

ailin

gs

onda

l

Riv

ers

toto

lo

P R

ust

mos

a

land

s

ikan

a

Uni

on

Rid

ge

Mar

ula

delb

ult

s To

tal

BR

PM

mpl

ats

nbur

g

dikw

a

mpl

ats

bow

a

tmin

1

nham

rtham

Ta Kro

o

Two

R

Mot PP Mim E

Mar

i U

Blu

e R M

Am

and

Ang

loP

lats B Im

Rus

te

Mod Zim

Leb

Pla

t

Twic

ke No r

Private and Confidential15

R/t Cost Including Capex - Recent price R2200/tR/t Cost Including Capex Recent price R2200/t

R/t

2000

2500

R/t

1500

2000

500

1000

0

lings

kana

onda

l

iver

s

mos

a

nbur

g

Uni

on

elbu

lt

arul

a

plat

s

Tota

l

Rus

t

plat

s

otol

o

RP

M

tham

ands

ikw

a

bow

a

nham

min

1

Rid

ge

Tai

Mar

i k

Kro

o

Two

R

Mi m

Rus

ten U

Am

ande M

a

Imp

Ang

loP

lats

T

PP

Zim

p

Mot

o

BR

Nor

t

Ela

Mod

i

Leb

Twic

ken

Pla

tm

Blu

e R

Private and Confidential16

R/kg Cash Cost – Recent price R550 000/kgR/kg Cash Cost Recent price R550 000/kg

R/kg

350000

400000

g

200000

250000

300000

100000

150000

0

50000

Rid

ge

min

1

otol

o

iver

s

RP

M

ikw

a

lings

Rus

t

onda

l

elbu

lt

ands

mos

a

plat

s

Uni

on

nbur

g

arul

a

Tota

l

bow

a

tham

nham

plat

s

kana

Blu

e R

Pla

tm

Mot

o

Two

R BR

Mod

i

Tai

PP

Kro

o

Am

ande Ela

Mim Im

p U

Rus

ten Ma

Ang

loP

lats

Leb

Nor

t

Twic

ken

Zim

p

Mar

ik

Private and Confidential17

R/kg Cost Including Capex – Recent price R550 000/kgR/kg Cost Including Capex Recent price R550 000/kg

R/kg

400000

450000

500000

R/kg

250000

300000

350000

400000

100000

150000

200000

0

50000

min

1

idge

vers

ings

RP

M

kwa

otol

o

lbul

t

burg

osa

ndal

plat

s

ham

Tota

l

nion

arul

a

owa

Rus

t

ands

plat

s

kana ham

Pla

tm

Blu

e R

i

Two

Ri

Tail

BR

Mod

ik

Mot

o

Am

ande

Rus

tenb

Mim

Kro

on

Imp

Nor

th

Ang

loP

lats

T Un

Ma

Lebo

PP

R

Ela

Zim

p

Mar

ik

Twic

ken

Private and Confidential18

Capex Total for SA Platinum Explorers (Rbn)

20

Rbn

Capex Total for SA Platinum Explorers (Rbn)

16

18

20

Note: Add capex of R15 billion a year for Ams, Imp, Lon, Nhm

12

14

y , p, ,

6

8

10

2

4

6

0

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

Private and Confidential19

Impacts – Eskom powerImpacts Eskom power

Power shortage: Effect on producers – this will likely be 20% of production across the board

A 10% t lt i 20% d ti f llA 10% power cut results in a 20% production fall

Recently, power-outages have been uncommon, but don’t count onRecently, power outages have been uncommon, but don t count on a pleasant surprise yet.

Explorers currently have no power requirements, will use diesel trucks and generators, open pit will come in first – by 2012 more power should be availablepower should be available

Private and Confidential20

Valuation Exercise ExampleValuation Exercise Example

Cashflow exerciseYear End 1 2 3 4 …30TonsGradeCostCapex (All)IncomeWorking cost (All)ProfitTaxable income

TaxCashflow

Take an NPV at 15% real for an explorer, 3% real for a producer

Private and Confidential21

ConclusionConclusion

The Platinum Market will likely remain in undersupply – jewellery demand might be the shock absorber

The palladium market will strengthen as stocks diminishThe palladium market will strengthen as stocks diminish

The Rhodium market will add strong support – perpetual undersupply i di t dindicated

Share valuations at spot prices look extremely attractive.

Record ZAR revenues and the currency on a softening path, skills and power shortagespower shortages

A really Perfect Storm for Platinum

Private and Confidential22

Valuation Exercise Spot prices usedDCF Value at real return rates R/USD 7.8

(Preferred method of valuing platinum and mining projects) Pt 2150 Au 972 Nickel

Pd 564 Ru 400 Copper

Rh 8980 Ir 445 CobaltRh 8980 Ir 445 Cobalt

SPOT DCF VALUATIONEXPLORERS Domicile Latest Comment Real Discount Rates

Currency Price 15% 10%

Nk e Platin m AUD 83 G t j t d l d 1598 2521Nkwe Platinum AUD 83 Garatouw project undervalued 1598 2521AIM Resources AUD 12 Grasvaly prospect - low grade of concern, highly 91 158Ridge Mining GBP 125 Sheba's Ridge value underestimated by market, low cost 538 902Anooraq CAD 395 Market underestimating value, large resource 1651 2143Jubilee Platinum GBP 67 Single Project, good grades, medium depth. 252 422Sylvania AUD 301 Dump re Treatment and Everest North small but profitable 1044 1581Sylvania AUD 301 Dump re-Treatment and Everest North - small but profitable 1044 1581Caledonia Mining GBP 10 Mainly gold and Grasvally property - PGMs and nickel 30 52Platinum Group Metals CAD 342 Good grades and shallow resource 944 1653Platmin GBP 408 Small projects, but reasonably good quality, open-pittable 896 1442Platinum Australia AUD 280 Small low grade deposits, open pittable, low cost 565 908Wesizwe ZAR 946 Deep good grade but will have high costs 1305 2491Wesizwe ZAR 946 Deep, good grade but will have high costs 1305 2491Eastern platinum CAD 355 Broken ground, difficult to mine. 217 371Consolidated Puma CAD 150 In Kola peninsula, Russia. Part of Bema Gold Not ValuedPlatinum Group of India RUP n/a Recycling business. Not ValuedBeartooth CAD 15 In Stillwater Complex. Low value due to high Pd content. Not ValuedAverageg

PRODUCERS ZAR/sh Real Discount Rates5% 3%

Aquarius ZAR 118 Offers good value 728 877Anglo Platinum ZAR 1272 Undervalued. Cost controls have been a problem. 3033 3811Northam ZAR 70 Fairly valued 132 170Lonmin ZAR 511 Expensive, lack of face length problems appearing 818 1070Implats ZAR 338 Expensive 538 707A

Private and Confidential23

Average

Valuation Exercise AUD/USD 0.9311USD Per ounce Valuation (4 PGMs) CAD/USD 1.0151(Less preferred valuation method) Rand /USD 7.82

GBP/USD 1.98

EXPLORERSEXPLORERS Domicile Latest Shares Market Market Resources ValuationCurrency Price Issued Cap (Mil) Cap (Mil) Mil Ozs. USD/Oz Resource

(cps or pps) Domicile Currency In USD/oz 4 PGM 4PGMs

Ridge Mining GBP 125 90728000 113 225 48.2 5Jubilee Platinum GBP 67 88017408 59 117 23 5A CAD 395 185054407 731 742 105 7Anooraq CAD 395 185054407 731 742 105 7Nkwe Platinum AUD 83 184000000 153 142 29 5Platinum Australia AUD 280 207520521 581 541 16 34Eastern Platinum CAD 355 668128194 2372 2408 95 25Platinum Group Metals CAD 342 61451747 210 213 5.1 42Platmin GBP 408 96374938 393 779 17 46Platmin GBP 408 96374938 393 779 17 46Wesizwe* ZAR 946 554829167 5249 671 11 61AIM Resources AUD 12 766657985 92 86 1 86Caledonia Mining GBP 10 487869280 49 97 0.7 138Sylvania AUD 301 176379273 531 570 1.8 317Consolidated Puma CAD 150 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aConsolidated Puma CAD 150 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aPlatinum Group of India RUP n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aBeartooth US 15 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aSimple Average/Total 6590 353 19* Takes account of the issue of 62m shares for Africa Wide

PRODUCERS ZAR per share

Northam ZAR 70 237845000 16649 2129 129 17Anglo Platinum ZAR 1272 236145719 300377 38411 884 43Lonmin ZAR 511 156186715 79811 10206 204 50Aquarius ZAR 118 256534266 30271 3871 44 88Implats ZAR 338 630899228 213244 27269 263 104

Si l A /T l 623704 79758 1524 54

Private and Confidential24

Simple Average/Total 623704 79758 1524 54

Thank you

Allan Hochreiter (Pty) LtdC t Fi d Ad iCorporate Finance and Advisory

René Hochreiter

rene@allanhochreiter.co.zawww.allanhochreiter.co.za

+27 11 325 5457 (office)+27 83 633 6677 (mobile)

Private and Confidential