7/30/2019 Private Residential Property Quarterly 2Q13
1/4
1 | P a g e 4
Real Estate DataTrend
29 July 2 Singapore | Residential
Please note the terms of use on last page.
Residential price growth stable in 2Q13Singapore's overall
residential property prices rose by 1% q-o-q in 2Q13. This
wasmainly due to the 3.8% increase q-o-q for the mass market home
prices (OutsideCentral Region, OCR). Prices of Rest of Central
Region(RCR) increased by 0.2%,while Core Central Region(CCR)
dropped by 0.2% q-o-q. There was a difference of0.8 percentage
points between the 2Q13 flash estimates and the final 2Q
statistics.The difference could be mainly attributed to J Gateways
launch on the 28th of June2013 in which it was almost sold out in a
day. J Gateway is one of the mostexpensive mass market projects in
the Jurong area, which sold at a median price of$1,486 psf.
OCR prices not affected by January cooling measuresIn the first
half of 2013, OCR prices jumped 5.2%, whereas both the CCR and
RCRprices only rose 0.4%. This shows that the cooling measures in
January especially
the increase in Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty (ABSD) have not
affected the demandfor mass market homes, which largely come from
local buyers and HDB upgraders.
Occupancy rate falls in the northern region of
SingaporeOccupancy rate in the northern planning region fell to 88%
from 97.4%. This is dueto two new condominium projects receiving
Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP) in2Q13. Overall occupancy rate is
still healthy. The average occupancy rate in thenorthern region
over the last three years is 96.6%. The occupancy rates for the
restof the regions are as follows: Central region at 93.2%, eastern
region at 96.4%,north-eastern at 96.8% and western at 97.1%.
Overall occupancy rate fell slightly by0.4% q-o-q in 2Q13.
Unsold inventory falls 6% in 2Q13Unsold inventory fell 6% q-o-q
in 2Q2013, from 35,564 units to 33,255 units. RCR fell
the most by 9% q-o-q, from 10,917 units to 9,893 units. Unsold
CCR units also fell by7% q-o-q from 11,123 units to 10,361 units.
Unsold inventory in OCR dropped by 4%q-o-q, from 13,524 units to
13,001 units. The decline in unsold inventory couldmean that the
market take-up rates for new homes are at healthy levels, with
anumber of units from previously launched projects being absorbed
by the market.
Pace of rental growth moderatedThe Private Residential Rental
Index increased slightly by 0.3% compared with the0.8% growth in
the last quarter. The growth is the fastest in CCR and slowest
inOCR. CCR rental index increased by 0.5% in 2Q13, slowing from the
0.8% increase in1Q13. Rental growth registered 0.1% in RCR, but was
flat in OCR in 2Q13.
Outlook for 2nd half of 2013With the Total Debt Servicing Ratio
(TDSR) framework in place, over-leveragedborrowers will be priced
out of the property market. The authority has revealedthat 5% to
10% of the households are already over leveraged on their
propertypurchases. These households have their total monthly debt
payments more than60% of their gross incomes. The percentage of
over-leveraged households couldincrease to 10% to 15% should
mortgage rates rise by 3 percentage points.
Against this backdrop, investment demand could soften further,
as totalaffordability could be reduced by the new framework.
Loopholes such as parentsborrowing in their childrens names have
also been plugged. However, we are ofthe view that property prices
will remain resilient in the near term, as economicfundamentals
stay intact. Projects with attractive pricing and good locations
suchas near MRT stations could still register healthy interest from
genuine HDBupgraders. Therefore, we are cautiously optimistic that
private property pricescould rise between 2% to 4% for the whole of
2013.
Exhibit 1: Key indicators
Note : 2Q13 GDP figures are advance estimates
Source: URA, MTI, OrangeTee Research
Research and Consultancy
Wong Xian Yang
Senior Research Analyst
Christine Li Minwen
Head
Indicators 1Q13 2Q1
Economy (year on year growth, %)
GDP at 2005 prices 0.2
Property Market Indicators
Overall property price index 213.2 215
Q-o-q change (%) 0.6% 1
Overall property rental index 163.9 164
Q-o-q change (%) 0.9% 0
Overall occupancy (%) 94.8 94
Q-o-q change (%age points) 0.002 (0.0
OrangeTee Research & ConsultancyEmail:
[email protected]: www.orangetee.com
Private Residential MarketMass market still dominates private
home sales
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]
7/30/2019 Private Residential Property Quarterly 2Q13
2/4
2 | P a g e 4
| Singapore | Residential 29 July 2
Please note the terms of use on last page.
Exhibit 2 : Private Residential Property Price Index (RPPI)
Source: URA, OrangeTee Research
Exhibit 3 : Non-Landed RPPI, All Regions
Source: URA, OrangeTee Research
Exhibit 4 : Private Residential Units Sold in Primary and
Secondary Market
Source: URA, OrangeTee Research
7/30/2019 Private Residential Property Quarterly 2Q13
3/4
3 | P a g e 4
| Singapore | Residential 29 July 2
Please note the terms of use on last page.
Exhibit 5: Private Residential Property Rental Index, All
Regions
Source: URA, OrangeTee Research
Exhibit 6: Occupancy Rate, Islandwide (%)
Source: URA, OrangeTee Research
Exhibit 7: Expected Completions
Source: URA, OrangeTee Research
