Private Sector Contributions to Improved Drought Resilience

David I Gustafson, Ph.D.

Director, CIMSANSInternational Life Sciences

Institute Research Foundation

Outline for Presentation

• Brief description of the ILSI-RF’s new Center for Integrated Modeling of Sustainable Agriculture & Nutrition Security (CIMSANS) – Enabling greater private sector engagement in the climate change

challenge to sustainability & food security

• Comparison of the 2012 US Corn-Belt Drought to similar previous droughts (1988 and the Dust Bowl)

• Specific ways in which the private sector has contributed to improved drought resilience

• Imperatives for the future

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CIMSANS Mission

• New global forum for scientists from private sector to engage with those from public sector and academia on sustainability & food security

• Establish productive public-private partnerships to dramatically improve the methods and data used in integrated modeling assessments

• Significantly increase general public awareness of the urgency for new investment to meet global nutrition needs in more sustainable ways

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US Corn Belt Drought of 2012

• US Corn Belt experienced one of its worst droughts on record during 2012

• However, Corn Belt maize and soybean yields are much higherthan in previous similar droughts– Maize: 35 bu/A (41%) higher than 1988, 95 bu/A (350%) higher

than in the Dust Bowl Era (1933-6)– Soybean: 9 bu/A (31%) higher than 1988, 23 bu/A (154%) higher

than in the Dust Bowl Era (1933-6)

• Why? - farming technology has improved

1930 1950 1970 1990 20100.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

-20.00

-10.00

0.00

10.00

20.00

Ma

ize

yie

ld (

NE

, IA

, M

N,

IL,

IN

an

d O

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(bu

/ac

)

Pa

lme

r Z

(J

un

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ug

us

t)

Data Sources: USDA NASS (corn yields), NOAA NCDC (drought index)

1988 2012

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US Maize Yields vs. Drought Intensity

“Dust Bowl” Era

35 bu/A(+41%)

95 bu/A(+350%)

Palmer Z Drought Index

Maize Yield

19301940195019601970198019902000201020200

15

30

45

60

-20.00

-10.00

0.00

10.00

20.00

So

y y

ield

(N

E,

IA,

MN

, IL

, IN

a

nd

OH

) (b

u/a

c)

Pa

lme

r Z

(J

un

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ug

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t)

1988 2012

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Data Sources: USDA NASS (corn yields), NOAA NCDC (drought index)

US Soybean Yields vs. Drought Intensity

“Dust Bowl” Era

9 bu/A(+31%)

23 bu/A(+154%)

Palmer Z Drought Index

Soy Yield

A

C TG

CG

T

A

PLANT BREEDING

BIOTECHNOLOGY

CHEMISTRY & AGRONOMICS

Multiple Factors are Contributing to Improvement

YIELD

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Farming Technology Improvements

• Tillage Systems: Increased adoption of conservation tillage, which helps to reduce evaporative losses and promote deeper penetration of moisture into the soil profile, making it available to the crop later in the season

• Better Equipment: Availability of improved equipment for soil-bed preparation, planting, harvesting, and application of crop chemicals, including the more widespread use of GPS technology (Precision Agriculture)

• Water Management: Better management of water, including advanced drainage systems and some increases in the acreage under irrigation (although much of this increase has come in areas outside of the Corn Belt, such as the Mississippi Delta)

• Planting Changes: Shifts to earlier planting dates (partly enabled by climate change) and higher plant populations result in greater yield potential by allowing the crop to collect more solar energy

• Crop Protection Chemicals: Continued development and introduction of more effective crop protection chemicals and improved application methods (such as seed treatments) have helped preserve yield in the face of increased weed, pest, and disease pressure

• Breeding Advances: New technologies have enabled more rapid rate of genetic gain in crop yields, based on diverse and elite germplasm, broadly adapted, tested in a wide range of environments

• Biotechnology: Traits for herbicide tolerance and insect protection have contributed to greater preservation of underlying yield potential, especially under high environmental stress

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Better Agronomic Practices

Conservation Tillage Can Help Make the Most of Available Soil Moisture

• Improves soil quality (organic matter, # worms, water uptake rate, # soil pores)

• Improves fertilizer utilization

• Increases roots by 33 – 44%

• Yields equal or better than conventional tillage

“Fixing the Farm” Can Provide the Platform for Increased Yield Opportunity

Managing the Basics:Soil

NutrientsDrainageIrrigation

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Technology Advances Now Make Precision Ag Possible

Plant Breeding Strategy Directly Selects More Resilient Crops

• Diverse & elite germplasm, broadly adapted

• Tested in a wide range of environments

• Broad datasets collected on genotype-by-environment interaction

Global Exchange of Germplasm and Information

Asia Brazil Mexico Africa Argentina Europe

Broad Testing on Local Scale

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Decade of introduction

• Hybrids from different “eras” grown in the same fields, experiencing the same stress

• New hybrids yield better than older ones and use water more efficiently

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Technology has Improved Maize Yields under Drought Stress

Biotech Contributions to Adaptation and Mitigation in the Ag Sector

• Herbicide-tolerant crops– Enable conservation-tillage, reducing evaporative losses– Lower runoff losses, reducing flooding downstream

• Bt-crops (solar-powered crop protection)– Better root structure increases drought tolerance– Entire plant is less stressed by weather extremes

• More traits in the pipeline– Biotech drought tolerance– Nitrogen use efficiency

Applied nitrogen

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• Agrisure Artesian™ – Syngenta (non-Biotech)– Up to 15% higher yield on moisture-stressed acres, including

rainfed production and farms with limited irrigation – Greater yield stability in years of inconsistent rainfall or in fields

with variable soil types

• AQUAmax™ – DuPont Pioneer (non-Biotech)– 8.9% (8.5 bu/A) yield advantage in water-limited conditions– 1.9% (4.2 bu/A) yield advantage in favorable conditions

• DroughtGard™ – Monsanto/BASF (Biotech)– Scheduled for launch in 2013 in Western Drylands (area of

chronic water stress), yield advantage >5 bu/A seen in 2012– System combines drought-tolerant germplasm, a drought-

tolerant biotechnology trait and agronomic recommendations

Drought Tolerant Maize Offerings

™ Trademarks of the respective companies

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Imperatives for the Future

• Essential to make existing farmland more productive• Sustainable Intensification

• Must continue to improve climate resilience of our crops