Professor Brian Collins CB, FREng Professor of …...Professor Brian Collins CB, FREng Professor of Engineering Policy, UCL Ex CSA BIS and DfT Global Risk Landscape 2012. Source: World

Global Challenges for the 21st Century

Professor Brian Collins CB, FREng Professor of Engineering Policy, UCL

Ex CSA BIS and DfT

Global Risk Landscape 2012. Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks 2012, Seventh Edition

But what are the chances of ‘something’ happening over 20 years…

The National Risk Register looks out five years

Emergencies: the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus (swine flu)

Source: NIID and ECDC 2009 Recorded human pandemics of influenza

Image of HN1N virus Source – US CDC

influenza laboratory

• 6 pandemics in 120 years. • Approximately 65% chance of

another in 20 years… • Severity highly variable

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Talk to slide – Role + Story In the context of the 2009 epidemics of the novel influenza A(H1N1) and the imminent pandemic (See Figure above) National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID) European Centre of Diseases Control and Prevention (ECDC)

New diseases, animals and plants

2010 2011 2012

Schmallenbourg

Novel coronavirus

novel Bunyavirus in China

Animal and human diseases: One consequence of a ‘small world’

Plant diseases also spreading

globally: e.g. Chalara

fraxinea

Economic Losses related to selected Natural Catastrophes

Source: 2011 Munich Re, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE

Increase in severe weather events and cost of natural catastrophes

US Shale oil/gas reserves having significant impact on US economy

Bakkan formation (North Dakota)

Comparison: •Minneapolis •Dallas

Major reserves of fossil fuels

Coal Reserves (1012 BTU)

Potentially huge Arctic resources

Contributions to uncertainty in decadal mean surface air temperature change estimated from the CMIP3 ensembles

Ed Hawkins, NCAS

• There are uncertainties around predicting precise impacts due to difficulties of:

• Scenario uncertainty: •Setting targets •Achieving consensus •Keeping to targets

• Model uncertainty:

•Knowledge limitations •Chaotic nature of the climate system

Delay in the climate system

Presenter

Presentation Notes

But there is considerable uncertainty in level of climate risks Climate models are imperfect and tend not to include ‘tipping points’. How successful will global mitigation efforts be? Other factors such as technological innovation, demographic changes and international migration could be more important Will sustainable behaviors become the norm? The extent to which the market will adapt by itself?

Global Supply Chain Resilience

FROM CONTINUITY CENTRAL

Multi-factoral Resilience

Challenges for Cities

• Density of everything – People, buildings and diversity – Means of transport – Energy consumption – Waste production – Water consumption – Data generation and Information exploitation

• Attractiveness for inward migration • Interdependency of everything

Conclusions • The man made world and the natural world are

richly interdependent and intrinsically complex, and should be treated as one system

• Nations and cities need to collaborate on assessing the risks and opportunities that are presented by change of all types

• As global human population grows and cities become denser, the effect of extreme natural events, good public health, minimising the use of natural resources and ubiquitous education become critical

• We seem to be at a critical time for getting all these factors right – the next twenty years or so is crucial

Thank you

Documents

Professor Brian Collins CB, FREng Professor of …...Professor Brian Collins CB, FREng Professor of Engineering Policy, UCL Ex CSA BIS and DfT Global Risk Landscape 2012. Source: World