Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Editors / Éditeurs: Tim Ashman & Andres Soux
Program
Programme
Sponsors | Commanditaires
GOLD SPONSORS | COMMANDITAIRES OR
SILVER SPONSORS | COMMANDITAIRES ARGENT
OTHER SPONSORS | AUTRES COMMANDITAIRES
1
Table of Contents | Table des matières
Welcome from the Premier of BC | Mot de bienvenue du premier ministre de la C.‐B. ............................. 2
Welcome from the Mayor of Whistler | Mot de bienvenue du maire de Whistler. .................................... 3
About CMOS | À propos de la SCMO ............................................................................................................ 4
Welcome from the President of the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society ....................... 5
Mot de bienvenue du président de la Société Canadienne de Météorologie et d’Océanographie ............. 6
Welcome Message from the Local Arrangement Committee and Scientific Program Committee .............. 7
Mot de bienvenue du Comité du programme scientifique et du Comité local des préparatifs ................... 8
Local Arrangements Committee | Comité des arrangements locaux .......................................................... 9
Scientific Program Committee | Comité du programme scientifique .......................................................... 9
Volunteers | Bénévoles ................................................................................................................................ 9
CMOS 2015 Social Events ............................................................................................................................ 10
Activités Sociaux durant le Congrès SCMO 2015 ........................................................................................ 11
Exhibitors List | Liste des exposants ........................................................................................................... 13
Map of Whistler Conference Centre | Carte du Centre de Conférence de Whistler ................................ 14
Public Lecture| Conférence publique ......................................................................................................... 16
Plenaries | Plénières ................................................................................................................................... 19
Workshops and Special Sessions | Ateliers et sessions spéciales .............................................................. 32
Guidelines for Presenters............................................................................................................................ 36
Les lignes directrices du présentateur ........................................................................................................ 40
Week‐at‐a‐Glance | La Semaine en un Coup d’Oeil ................................................................................... 44
Session Schedule | Horaire du sessions ...................................................................................................... 47
Presentation Schedule | Horaire du presentations .................................................................................... 51
Abstracts ...................................................................................................................................... abstracts i
Authors .......................................................................................................................................... authors 1
Editors | Éditeurs – Tim Ashman, Andres Soux, Ken Kwok
Translators | Traducteurs – Matt MacDonald, Chantal McCartin
ISBN: 978‐0‐9880587‐3‐6
A Message from Premier Christy Clark
As Premier of the Province of British Columbia, I am pleased to welcome everyone to the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society’s 49th Congress, here in beautiful Whistler. I understand that this year’s congress — Tropics to Poles: Advancing Science in High
Latitudes — has brought together national and international experts to share their findings and recommendations, to ensure excellence in the field of high latitude science. Events like these are critical in understanding our own climate and environment, and I commend everyone here for their commitment to furthering environmental discussions. I’d like to take this opportunity to thank the conference team for the time and effort that has been put into organizing this important gathering. Without your dedication, none of this would be possible. I wish you all the best in your deliberations, and I hope everyone will also have an opportunity to enjoy some of the many sights and amenities Whistler has to offer. Sincerely, Christy Clark Premier
2
4
About CMOS The Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (CMOS) is the national society of individuals and organisations dedicated to advancing atmospheric and oceanic sciences and related environmental disciplines in Canada. The Society’s aim is to promote meteorology and oceanography in Canada, and it is a major non‐governmental organisation serving the interests of meteorologists, climatologists, oceanographers, limnologists, hydrologists and cryospheric scientists in Canada. CMOS was officially created in 1967 as the Canadian Meteorological Society and adopted its present name in 1977, following an invitation by the Canadian Meteorological Society to the oceanographic community in Canada to join the Society. However, CMOS has a rich history dating back to 1939 when it was known as the Canadian Branch of the Royal Meteorological Society.
The Society comprises some 1100 members and subscribers, including students, corporations, institutions, and others who are involved in the educational functions, communications, the private sector and government. Membership is open to all who share an interest in atmospheric and oceanic sciences, their related sciences and applications. The Society addresses a broad range of national and international meteorological and oceanographic concerns including weather and weather extremes, global warming, ozone depletion and surface air quality and their effects on all aspects of life in Canada including forestry, agriculture and fisheries. Special interest groups in the Society consider meteorological aspects of hydrology, agriculture, forestry, meso‐scale meteorological phenomena and operational meteorology.
À propos de la SCMO La Société canadienne de météorologie et d'océanographie (SCMO) est une société nationale de personnes et d'organisations vouées à l'avancement des sciences atmosphériques et océaniques liées aux disciplines environnementales au Canada. Un des principaux organismes non gouvernementaux à servir les intérêts des météorologues, océanographes, limnologues, hydrologues et scientifiques cryosphériques, la Société vise à promouvoir la météorologie et l'océanographie au Canada. La SCMO a vu le jour officiellement en 1967 et a adopté son nom actuel en 1977 après que la Société météorologique du Canada ait invité la communauté océanographique du Canada à se joindre à elle. Toutefois, la SCMO a une riche histoire qui remonte à 1939 alors qu'elle était connue sous le nom de Section canadienne de la Société royale des météorologues. La Société compte 1 100 membres et adhérents, et parmi ceux‐ci, des étudiants, des corporations, des institutions et d'autres groupes engagés dans l'éducation, les communications, le secteur privé et le gouvernement. Peut devenir membre de la SCMO toute personne qui a un intérêt dans les sciences atmosphériques et océaniques, ainsi que dans les disciplines connexes et leurs applications. La Société s'intéresse à une vaste gamme de questions nationales et internationales qui touchent la météorologie et l'océanographie, et en particulier, le temps et les conditions météorologiques exceptionnelles, le réchauffement de la planète, la diminution de l'ozone et la qualité de l'air à la surface, ainsi que leurs effets sur tous les aspects de la vie au Canada incluant la foresterie, l'agriculture et les pêches. Des groupes d'intérêts spéciaux de la Société étudient les questions météorologiques associées à l'hydrologie, à l'agriculture, à la foresterie, ainsi que les phénomènes météorologiques d'échelle moyenne et la météorologie opérationnelle.
5
Welcome from the President of the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
On behalf of the Canadian Meteorological and
Oceanographic Society (CMOS), I would like to
welcome you to our 49th CMOS Congress in Whistler
on “Tropics to Poles: Advancing Science in High
Latitudes” which is a Joint Congress of the CMOS and
the American Meteorological Society (AMS) whose
partnership is greatly appreciated. Our congresses
are an outstanding forum for networking and
exchange of ideas between the government,
academic and private sector scientists and
practitioners working in the field of meteorology and
oceanography. This year the partnership with AMS
further enhances these opportunities. They provide
us with a forum to present our scientific advances
and learn about new scientific work of our peers. We
also recognize the work of outstanding colleagues
over their career as well as on special projects. More
importantly we recognize the work of our
youngsters, the future of our profession, through
awards for outstanding work done by them.
We have also organized a student industry
networking event in the Congress to encourage
students to establish connections with industry.
In addition to the regular scientific program, we have
also organized a special session on the “Future of
CMOS” in which we would discuss where we would
like to take this venerable organization. We invite all
our members to attend our Annual General Meeting
to vote on various important motions and to help
select our new Council.
As usual there will be a Patterson‐Parsons Luncheon
and a Banquet where achievements of our colleagues
and students will be recognized. We have also
organized an interesting Exhibition in which various
companies will display their products and services.
We strongly encourage you to visit the booths to
learn about new products and services and also
encourage these companies so that they keep
participating in these Exhibitions.
These Congresses require a lot of work to organize.
We would like to strongly recognize the untiring work
of the Chair of the Local Arrangements Committee
Ken Kwok and the Chair of the Scientific Committee
Bruce Ainslie and their teams for organizing this
conference so well. In addition, we would like to
recognize our sponsors whose generous contribution
helps these congresses to succeed. We encourage
other potential sponsors – especially larger users of
meteorology to step up to the plate to help their
organization – CMOS to grow and organize additional
events.
Finally, our 50th Congress is planned to be held in
Fredericton next year. We plan to hold some special
events to celebrate this Golden Jubilee of our
Congresses. We encourage you to provide additional
ideas for this celebration and hope we can count on
your attendance.
Our best wishes to all attendees for an interesting,
fruitful and productive Congress in Whistler, BC.
Dr. Harinder Ahluwalia President CMOS
6
Mot de bienvenue du président de la Société Canadienne de Météorologie et d’Océanographie
Au nom de la Société canadienne de météorologie et
d'océanographie (SCMO), je tiens à vous souhaiter la
bienvenue à notre 49ième congrès SCMO à Whistler
intitulé "Des tropiques aux pôles: Avancement de la
science des hautes latitudes". Le congrès est une
collaboration entre la SCMO et la Société Américaine
de Météorologie (AMS) dont le partenariat est
grandement apprécié. Nos congrès sont un forum
exceptionnel pour le réseautage et l'échange d'idées
entre les différents gouvernements, les scientifiques
ainsi que les praticiens académiques et privés
travaillant dans le domaine de la météorologie et de
l'océanographie. Cette année, le partenariat avec
AMS accroit ces opportunités davantage. Le congrès
nous fournit un forum pour présenter nos progrès
scientifiques et en apprendre davantage sur les
nouveaux travaux scientifiques de nos pairs. Nous
reconnaissons également le travail de nos collègues
au fil de leurs carrières ainsi qu’au cours de projets
spéciaux. Encore plus important est la
reconnaissance du travail accompli par nos jeunes,
l'avenir de notre profession en les récompensant
pour le travail remarquable qu’ils ont accompli.
Nous avons également organisé un événement de
réseautage industrie‐étudiant durant le Congrès afin
d’encourager les élèves à établir des liens avec
l'industrie.
En plus du programme scientifique régulier, nous
avons aussi organisé une session spéciale sur «
l'avenir de la SCMO » durant lequel nous discuterons
de la direction de cette vénérable organisation. Nous
invitons tous nos membres à assister à notre
assemblée générale annuelle afin de voter sur
diverses motions importantes et d'aider avec la
sélection notre nouveau conseil.
Comme d'habitude, il y aura un diner Patterson‐
Parsons et un banquet où les accomplissements de
nos collègues et des étudiants seront reconnus. Nous
avons également organisé une exposition
intéressante où différentes entreprises présenteront
leurs produits et leurs services. Nous vous
encourageons vivement à visiter leurs stands pour
vous renseigner sur les nouveaux produits et services
offerts et aussi pour encourager ces entreprises afin
qu'elles continuent de participer à ces expositions.
Ces congrès exigent un travail organisationnel
énorme. Nous tenons à souligner le travail inlassable
du président du comité des arrangements locaux Ken
Kwok ainsi que le président du comité scientifique
Bruce Ainslie et leurs équipes pour l'excellente
organisation de cette conférence. En outre, nous
tenons à reconnaître nos commanditaires dont la
contribution généreuse assure la réussite de ces
congrès. Nous encourageons les autres
commanditaires potentiels ‐ en particulier les grands
utilisateurs de la météorologie – d’aller de l’avant
pour aider leur organisation à croître et d’organiser
des événements supplémentaires.
Finalement, notre 50ième congrès est prévue être
tenue à Fredericton l'année prochaine. Nous
prévoyons d'organiser des événements spéciaux
pour célébrer ce jubilé d'or de nos congrès. Nous
vous encourageons à fournir des idées
supplémentaires pour cette célébration et espérons
que nous pouvons compter sur votre présence.
Nos meilleurs vœux à tous les participants pour un
congrès intéressant, fructueux et productif à Whistler
en Colombie‐Britannique.
Dr. Harinder Ahluwalia Président de la SCMO
7
Welcome Message from the Local Arrangements Committee and Scientific Program Committee
On behalf of the Scientific Program and Local Arrangements Committees, we welcome you to Whistler,
B.C. for the joint 49th Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (CMOS) Congress and 13th
American Meteorological Society (AMS) Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography.
This year’s congress theme of Tropics to Poles: Advancing Science in High Latitudes, reflects the
heightened interest in the economic development and environmental impacts, both underway and
projected for, the world’s high latitude and polar regions. This year’s congress features almost 400
abstracts to be presented in the 52 oral sessions and the Monday afternoon poster session. These
submissions, along with eight internationally renowned plenary speakers, highlight top Canadian and
international researchers in the fields of oceanography, meteorology, climatology, hydrology and the
cryospheric sciences. At the Wednesday night public lecture, Captain Kurt Salchert, Royal Canadian Navy
(retired), will draw on his experience as a senior NORAD delegate to the Canadian Arctic Security
Working Group, to speak about policy issues arising as a consequence of the rapidly changing Arctic and
polar regions.
The congress also features a number of events including the student pub night on Monday, afternoon
social activities on Tuesday, and the traditional Banquet on Wednesday evening, with all of these events
taking place against Whistler’s beautiful vistas. Of course, none of this would have happened without
the tireless effort of the Local Arrangements Committee (LAC) and Scientific Program Committee (SPC)
members as well as all of the volunteers and CMOS staff.
The SPC and LAC recognize that it is a time of tight budgets and we are grateful for your participation at
this year’s congress. We hope the scientific sessions, workshops, public lecture and many social events
will provide the opportunity to learn, exchange ideas, as well as make and renew acquaintances.
Welcome!
Ken Kwok Dr. Bruce Ainslie Dr. Andrew Roberts Chair – Local Arrangements Committee
Chair – Scientific Program Committee
Chair ‐ AMS Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Committee
8
Mot de bienvenue du Comité du programme scientifique et du Comité local des préparatifs
Au nom du Comité du programme scientifique et du Comité local des préparatifs, nous vous souhaitons
la bienvenue à Whistler, en Colombie‐Britannique pour le 49ème Congrès de la Société Canadienne de
Météorologie et d’Océanographie (SCMO) joint avec la 13ième conférence de la Société Américaine de
Météorologie (AMS) portant sur la météorologie et l’océanographie polaire.
Cette année, le thème du congrès est « Des tropiques aux pôles: Faire progresser la science dans les
hautes latitudes » ce qui reflète l’intérêt accru dans le développement économique et des impacts
environnementaux déjà amorcé dans les hautes latitudes et les régions polaires. Le congrès cette année
met en vedette près de 400 résumés qui seront présentés dans l'une des 52 sessions orales et lors de la
session d'affiches lundi après‐midi. Jumelées aux huit conférenciers de renommée internationale, ces
soumissions reflètent les meilleurs chercheurs canadiens et internationaux dans les domaines de
l'océanographie, la météorologie, la climatologie, l'hydrologie et des sciences de la cryosphère. Durant la
conférence publique mercredi soir, le capitaine marine récemment retraité Kurt Salchert tirera sur son
expérience en tant que délégué principal NORAD du Groupe de travail sur la sécurité de l'Arctique
canadien pour parler de questions de politique découlant de l'évolution rapide de l'Arctique et des
régions polaires.
Le congrès comporte également un bon nombre d'événements sociaux, y compris la soirée pub pour
étudiants lundi soir, les activités sociales mardi après‐midi et le banquet traditionnel mercredi soir. Tous
ces événements se dérouleront parmi la beauté exceptionnelle de Whistler. Bien sûr, rien de tout cela
ne serait arrivé sans l'effort inlassable du Comité local des préparatifs (CLP) et des membres du Comité
du programme scientifique (CPS) ainsi que tous les bénévoles et le personnel de la SCMO.
Le CPS et le CLP reconnaissent que nous sommes présentement dans une période de budgets serrés et
nous sommes reconnaissants de votre participation au congrès cette année. Nous espérons que les
sessions scientifiques, les ateliers, les conférences publiques et les nombreux événements sociaux vous
offriront l'occasion d'apprendre, d'échanger des idées, ainsi que de renouveler et de créer des
connaissances.
Bienvenue!
Ken Kwok Dr. Bruce Ainslie Dr. Andrew Roberts Président du Comité local des préparatifs
Président de la Comité du programme scientifique
Président – Comité AMS de la météorologie et de l’océanographie polaire
9
Local Arrangements CommitteeComité des arrangements locaux
Tim Ashman
Alyssa Charbonneau Chris Gibbons William Hsieh Oscar Koren Ken Kwok
Matt MacDonald Ross MacDonald Chantal McCartin
Robert Nissen Peter Scholefield Andrew Snauffer
Brad Snyder Andres Soux
Lisa Vitols Cindy Yu
Scientific Program CommitteeComité du programme scientifique
Bruce Ainslie Susan Allen Phil Austin Ryan Fogt Mark Halverson William Hsieh Doug McCollor Ron McTaggart‐Cowan Richard Pawlowicz Andrew Roberts Martin Taillefer
Volunteers | Bénévoles
Kevin Akaoka Byeong Kim
Yimei Li Dana Ehlert
Timothy Chui Aranildo Lima Robert Irwin Fifine Peng
Jie (Catherine) Liu Xiaoxin (Cindy) Yu Evgeniya Snauffer
Morgen Shull Mekdes Ayalew Tessema
Lea Zhecheva Yingkai (Kyle) Sha
Jian Jin
Timothy Atkinson Karina Musalem Matthew Fung Nils Koropatnisky Jason Ross Jake McQueen Samantha Lee Zach Boudreau Jon Bau David Jones Lisa West Colin Fong Colin Tam Mindy Brugman Oscar Koren Andrew Snauffer
10
CMOS 2015 Social Events Whistler offers endless opportunities for all kinds of unique experiences and adventures. Play hard, rest easy, wine
and dine, attend an event, explore the arts, shop non‐stop, commune with nature, or find the ultimate adrenaline
rush. The big question is where do you want to start?
The 2015 CMOS Organizing Committee is happy to offer reduced‐rate activities to our delegates and their families
during the congress. We worked with Tourism Whistler to select the three following activities.
Peak 2 Peak Gondola Enjoy stunning 360‐degree views of Whistler Village, mountain peaks, lakes, glaciers
and forests.
Zipline Tours Ziptrek Ecotours is the North American pioneer of zipline tours, with the most ziplines and tour
options around! Ziptrek offers an entertaining combination of high‐wire adventure and ecological exploration
on a choice of 2 guided zipline tours.
Whistler Tasting Tours Experience the Best Whistler Restaurants all in One Night! During our guided walking
tours, guests enjoy a fantastic multi‐course dinner where each delicious course is provided by one of the
different restaurants in Whistler. Monday June 1st starting at 5:45pm.
For more info and to register, please visit www.whistler.com/delegates/cmos
SOCIAL CALENDAR
Sunday May 31
Monday June 1
Tuesday June 2
Wednesday June 3
ThursdayJune 4
Peak 2 Peak sightseeing available all week
What
Icebreaker
Music by The
Splinters
Student Night
Sponsored by Howe Sound Brewery & Campbell Scientific
Whistler Tasting Tour
Zipline Tours CMOS Banquet
Music by
The Splinters
It’s a wrap!
Where
Whistler Conference Centre Lobby
Dubh Linn Gate Irish Pub
Various restaurants.Starts at
Conference Centre
Carleton Lodge across from Whistler Gondola
Whistler Conference Centre
When 6pm‐10pm 8pm‐10pm Meet at
5:45pm 3pm 7pm‐10pm
11
Activités Sociaux durant le Congrès SCMO 2015 Whistler offre des possibilités infinies pour toutes sortes d’aventures et d'expériences exceptionnelles. Jouer dur,
dormir tranquille, dégustations et vin, assister à un événement, les arts, magasiner sans arrêt, communier avec la
nature, ou trouver l'ultime décharge d'adrénaline. La grande question est où voulez‐vous commencer?
Le Comité d'organisation SCMO 2015 est heureux d’offrir des activités à taux réduit à nos délégués et à leurs
familles durant le congrès. Nous avons travaillé avec Tourisme Whistler pour sélectionner les trois activités
suivantes.
Gondole « Peak 2 Peak » Profitez d'une vue à 360 degrés imprenable sur le village de Whistler, des
sommets montagneux, des lacs, des glaciers et des forêts.
Balade de tyrolienne Ziptrek Ecotours est le pionnier nord‐américain des tournés tyroliennes avec le plus
grand choix de tournés dans la région. Ziptrek vous offre une combinaison divertissante d’aventure haut‐
fil et l'exploration écologique sur un choix de 2 visites guidées de tyrolienne.
Tours « Whistler Tasting » Découvrez les meilleurs restaurants à Whistler en une nuit! Au cours de nos
visites guidées à pied, les clients bénéficieront d'un souper de plusieurs plats délicieux fournis par l'un des
différents restaurants à Whistler. Lundi 1er juin à partir de 17h45.
Pour plus d'information et pour vous inscrire, s'il vous plaît visitez www.whistler.com/delegates/cmos
CALENDRIER SOCIAL
Dimanche 31 mai
Lundi 1er juin
Mardi 2 juin
Mercredi 3 juin
Jeudi 4 juin
Tours de gondole « Peak 2 Peak » disponibles toute la semaine
Quoi
Brise‐glace
Musique par The
Splinters
Nuit pour les Étudiants
Commandité par Howe
Sound Brewery et Campbell Scientific
Tours Whistler Tasting
Tournés Zipline Banquet SCMO
Musique par The Splinters
C’est la fin du
congrès!
Où
Le hall d’entrée du Centre de Conférence de Whistler
Pub Irlandais Dubh Linn Gate
Divers restaurants.Tournée débute au Centre de Conférence
Carleton Lodge en face de la gondole Whistler
Centre de Conférence de
Whistler
Quand 18‐22h 20h‐22h 17h45 15h 19‐22h
Recommended Food & Drink 17 Sushi Village 20 Ingrid’s Village Café 20 La Bocca 21 Tapleys Pub 22 Dubh Linn Gate Irish Pub 26 Araxi 37 Splitz Grill (Burgers) 43 Caramba Restaurante (Mediterranean) 44 El Furniture Warehouse (Tacos) 47 Alta Bistro 49 The Brewhouse 57 Pasta Lupino Gourmet
49
17 22
20
26
37
43
44
47
57
21
13
Exhibitors List
On behalf of the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society and the American Meteorological Society we would like to thank all the Congress Exhibitors.
Liste des exposants
Au nom de la Société Canadienne de Météorologie et d'Océanographie et de la Société Américaine de Météorologie, nous tenons à remercier tous les exposants du congrès.
Booth Kiosque
Exhibitor Exposant
Website Site web
1 ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐
2 ASL Environmental Sciences Inc. http://www.aslenv.com
3 CMOS http://www.cmos.ca
4 Taylor & Francis http://www.taylorandfrancis.com
5 ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐
6 AMS http://www.ametsoc.org
7 Canadian Space Agency http://www.asc‐csa.gc.ca
8 RBR LTD http://www.rbr‐global.com
9 Campbell Scientific https://www.campbellsci.ca
10 Info‐Electronics Systems Inc. http://www.info‐electronics.com
11 Vaisala Incorporated http://www.vaisala.com
12 GEONOR Inc. http://geonor.com
13 Ocean Networks http://www.oceannetworks.ca
14 Ocean Networks http://www.oceannetworks.ca
15 MEOPAR http://meopar.ca
16 LI‐COR Biosciences http://www.licor.com/env
17 COMET http://www.meted.ucar.edu
18 ATS Technology Systems Inc. http://atsservices.ca
19 Hoskin Scientific Limited http://www.hoskin.ca
20 Mission Critical Energy http://missioncriticalenergy.com
Upper Level (Exhibits/Plenaries/Banquet)Niveau supérieur (Expositions / Plénières / Banquet)
Lower Level (Meetings Rooms/Theatre)
Niveau inférieur (Salle de conference / Théâtre)
16
Public Lecture| Conférence publique Captain Kurt Salchert Royal Canadian Navy (Retired) Arctic Collaboration: challenges and opportunities in building global partnerships
Collaboration dans l’Arctique : défis et opportunités durant l’établissement des partenariats mondiaux
Tuesday, June 2 at 7:00 p.m. | Mardi, 2 juin, 19h00
Problem statement
In an increasingly inter‐connected, inter‐dependent and rapidly changing globalized world, there continues to be an absence of habitual and persistent relationships across the global maritime and Arctic communities of Interest, which is essential to developing a comprehensive shared understanding of the Maritime Domain, and in particular the Arctic region. The unprecedented changes which are occurring in the Maritime Domain as a direct or indirect result of changes which are occurring in the Arctic region are clear and unequivocal; however, without a comprehensive shared understanding of these unique domains, decision‐makers from around the world are faced with the challenge of making and enforcing decisions of potentially geo‐strategic significance on the basis of scanty, incomplete or wrong information.
Background
The Arctic community of interest and indeed the broader global maritime community of interest is made up of stakeholders representing international, national, regional, state and local government, academic and business communities, international organizations, non‐governmental organizations, think tanks, special interest groups, as well as individual citizens.
The overall safety, security and health of the Arctic and maritime domains, as well as the efficiency and resilience of a global supply chain which is steadily becoming more reliant on ocean resources and maritime transportation routes, depends on both the physical flow of materials and goods as well as information flow from origin to destination. There is little benefit to the overall management of the Arctic and maritime domains (and those activities and interests which influence or are influenced by these domains) if certain links or stakeholders are maintaining habitual and persistent
relationships while others are not, or if there are shortfalls in information sharing and collaboration among stakeholders.
It is the total performance of this highly complex system that is relevant. The world has become a system of systems in which people, cargo, conveyances, information, the physical environment, as well as real and virtual
infrastructure are linked into intricate patterns of dependency with other inter‐modal transportation methods and facilities spread around the world; and, in fact, the Arctic and maritime domains cannot be looked at in isolation from the broader air, space, land and cyber domains due to the various dependencies and inter‐dependencies of this complex system of systems.
Aim
To share unique insights into the challenges of relationship‐building across key stakeholders of the global maritime and Arctic communities of interest and to propose a number of potential solutions, solution enablers and possible areas for further research to enhance Arctic and Maritime Domain Awareness in order to enable timely and well‐informed decisions and actions related to this area of geo‐strategic significance.
Methodology
This assessment will be based on my previous academic research and on my recent professional experiences while serving in Washington, D.C. as Commander North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and U.S. Northern Command’s primary Canadian advisor in the U.S. national capital. With offices at the Embassy of Canada and various locations throughout the U.S. defence, intelligence and interagency communities, I was responsible for nurturing strong collaborative relationships with stakeholders from around the globe to facilitate dialogue between national security planners, political decision‐makers, industry, and academic stakeholders with
17
actionable insights regarding the most significant global strategic challenges of the day; including understanding the various global interests in a rapidly changing Arctic.
In addition to sharing insights gathered from my time serving in Washington, I plan to present the findings of a study undertaken for a consortium of multinational clients to improve global security and domain awareness. This project identified 8 key Capability Focus Areas which form the foundation for building habitual and persistent relationships across the global maritime community of interest and developing a comprehensive shared understanding of the maritime environment in order to improve decision‐making. The findings of this study are applicable to the Arctic and any other geographic location with ties to the Maritime Domain.
Participants will leave the conference with a deeper appreciation of the challenges of relationship‐building across key stakeholders of the global Arctic and maritime communities of interest and better informed of potential solutions, solution enablers and areas for future study and research.
Énoncé du problème
Dans un contexte de mondialisation, d’interconnexion et d’interdépendance croissantes, il n’existe toujours pas de relations internationales routinières et durables entre les communautés s’intéressant à la mer et à l’Arctique. Relations qui s’avèrent essentielles au développement d’une compréhension totale et partagée du domaine maritime, en particulier la région arctique. Les changements sans précédent qui se manifestent dans le domaine maritime et qui découlent directement ou indirectement des changements que connaît la région arctique s’avèrent évidents et sans équivoque. Toutefois, sans une comprehension totale et partagée de ces domaines particuliers, les décideurs de tout pays devront prendre des décisions potentiellement stratégiques touchant la planète et les appliquer sur la base d’informations insuffisantes, incomplètes ou erronées.
Rappel des faits
La communauté s’intéressant à l’Arctique, tout comme la communauté mondiale des sciences de la mer en général, se compose d’intervenants représentant des gouvernements nationaux, régionaux et locaux, des organisations internationales et non gouvernementales, des universités et des communautés d’affaires, des groupes de réflexion, des groupes d’intérêts spéciaux, ainsi que des particuliers.
La sûreté, la sécurité et la vitalité des domaines arctique et maritime, ainsi que l’efficacité et la résilience de la chaîne mondiale d’approvisionnement, laquelle compte de plus en plus sur les ressources océaniques et les routes de transport maritime, dépendent à la fois de l’acheminement physique de matières et de biens, ainsi que de la transmission d’informations, de l’origine à la
destination. La gestion globale des domaines arctique et maritime (y compris des activités et intérêts qui influent sur ces domaines ou sont influences par ceux‐ci) offrira peu si certains intervenants maintiennent des relations routinières et durables, alors que d’autres ne le font pas, ou si le partage d’information et la collaboration entre parties intéressées restent insuffisants.
C’est l’efficacité globale de ce système hautement complexe qui compte. Le monde consiste en un système de systèmes dans lequel les gens, le fret, le transport, les informations, l’environnement physique, ainsi que les infrastructures réelles et virtuelles forment des réseaux complexes de dépendance avec le transport intermodal, et au sein duquel des installations s’implantent, partout sur la planète. De fait, on ne peut étudier les domains arctique et maritime isolément, sans inclure les domaines atmosphérique, spatial et terrestre, et le cyberespace, et ce, en raison des dépendances et interdépendances variées qui caractérisent ce système complexe de systèmes.
Objectif
Partager des idées inédites concernant le renforcement de liens entre les intervenants principaux internationaux des communautés d’intérêt visant les domaines arctique et maritime. Proposer des solutions possibles, des leviers et des champs de recherché prometteurs pour sensibiliser les collectivités à l’Arctique et au domaine maritime, de façon à faciliter la prise de décision et la mise en place de mesures utiles et fondées, en ce qui a trait à ce sujet d’importance géostratégique
Méthodologie
Cette évaluation s’appuiera sur mes recherches universitaires et sur l’expérience professionnelle récente que j’ai acquise à Washington D.C., en tant que commandant du Commandement de la défense aérospatiale de l’Amérique du Nord (NORAD) et conseiller principal aux affaires canadiennes au sein du Northern Command des États‐Unis. En poste à divers bureaux au sein de l’ambassade du Canada et ailleurs dans des organismes américains militaires, de renseignements ou interorganisation, je m’occupais de renforcer la collaboration internationale des parties intéressées, afin de faciliter le dialogue entre les planificateurs de la sécurité, les décideurs politiques, l’industrie et les universités, et ce, en proposant des idées concrètes sur les enjeux stratégiques actuels les plus importants, y compris la compréhension des intérêts mondiaux variés que suscite l’évolution rapide de l’Arctique.
En plus de partager les idées approfondies durant ma période de travail à Washington, je présenterai les conclusions d’une étude entreprise pour un consortium de clients multinationaux, et visant à améliorer la sûreté mondiale et à éveiller l’intérêt pour le domaine maritime. Ce projet a mis au jour huit secteurs d’intervention privilégiés, qui forment la base de relations routinières et
18
durables au sein des communautés d’intérêt mondiales se préoccupant du domaine maritime, et qui favoriseraient le développement de connaissances complètes et partagées de l’environnement maritime, afin d’améliorer la prise de décision. Les conclusions de cette étude s’appliquent à l’Arctique et à toute zone géographique liée au domaine maritime.
Les participants retireront de cette conférence une compréhension approfondie des enjeux relatifs au renforcement des rapports entre les principaux intervenants des communautés d’intérêt concernées par l’Arctique et le domaine maritime. Ils prendront aussi conscience de pistes de solutions potentielles, de leviers, et de champs d’étude et de recherché prometteurs.
Biography
A recently retired naval officer and decorated combat veteran, Kurt Salchert now brings his extensive expertise and leadership in Arctic and Maritime affairs to the private sector.
Upon leaving public service in 2014, Kurt founded Beyond the Border Consulting Ltd. an executive‐level professional services firm that provides tailored support to governments, NGOs and corporations to help them make sense of and respond to complex, cross‐disciplinary challenges. Over the past year, he has provided customized services to a consortium of multinational clients to understand and mitigate gaps and seams in maritime global supply chain security and critical infrastructure resilience. He has been retained to support concept development, planning and execution of Canadian government national‐level exercises as well as live/synthetic incident response and decision‐‐‐support training through the use of state‐of‐the‐art C4ISR systems. Recognized as an authority on the Arctic and remote sensing and advanced decision‐support technologies, he was sought by name to provide specialist insights at the 2013 Canadian Symposium on Remote Sensing. He is currently focused on delivering leading‐edge renewable energy and breakthrough icephobic materials to the North American marketplace.
Kurt spent his final years of public service in Washington, D.C. where he was handpicked as Commander North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and U.S. Northern Command’s primary Canadian advisor in the U.S. national capital. With offices at the Embassy of Canada and various locations throughout the U.S. defence, intelligence and interagency communities, he was responsible for nurturing strong collaborative relationships with stakeholders from around the globe to facilitate dialogue between national security planners, political decision‐makers, industry, and academic stakeholders with actionable insights regarding the most significant global strategic challenges of the day; including how to address
competing interests in a changing Arctic. Drawing on his experience as the senior NORAD delegate to the Canadian Arctic Security Working Group, he shared unique Canadian insights with such distinguished fora as the Canada‐United States Permanent Joint Board on Defence, the Military Operations Research Society, and the United States Navy Task Force Climate Change.
Over a distinguished 30‐year career, Kurt has held command and senior leadership appointments in virtually every class of Canadian warship as well as United Nations riverine and coastal Patrol Vessels. His decades of sea experience have been complemented by diverse duties ranging from leading small multinational strategic advisory teams in Cambodia to managing large scale multi‐disciplinary operations both at home and abroad. As a former Director of Operations at the Canadian Forces Joint Headquarters in Kingston, Ontario, he served on a rotational basis as the Commanding Officer of Canada’s Disaster Assistance Response Team (DART) and Joint Task Force Theatre Activation Team; both maintained in readiness to deploy globally on extremely short notice. Major accomplishments included his appointment as Liaison Officer to Commander U.S. Central Command in Tampa and Qatar coordinating operational planning for Canadian contributions to the Global War on Terrorism and leading crisis‐action planning for the deployment of highly specialized military capabilities to evacuate Canadian citizens from Haiti during the fall of ex‐President Aristide – an extremely time‐critical, high‐stakes operation.
Kurt holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Military and Strategic Studies from Royal Roads Military College and is a graduate from the Canadian Forces College. He earned his Master’s Degree in Defence Studies from the Royal Military College of Canada authoring his thesis entitled Northern Apathy ‐ The time has come for the Canadian government to take immediate and substantial actions to secure effective control over the sovereign waters of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Kurt is a veteran of numerous operational tours of duty including appointment with U.S. Central Command in Tampa and Qatar, two deployments with Multinational Forces in Haiti, a tour of duty as a United Nations Military Observer in Cambodia, and deployment on Operation Friction, Canada’s contribution to the 1990 ‐ 1991 Gulf War. He is the recipient of numerous honours and awards for his service in both peace and war including, most recently, the United States Meritorious Service Medal conferred by President Barack Obama for his role in disrupting a significant transnational security threat to North America.
19
Plenaries | Plénières Monday, June 1, 8:30 a.m. Lundi, 1 juin, 08h30 David Battisti
Recent decadal trends in the tropical Pacific and their impact on Antarctic and the Arctic
Tendances décennales récentes dans le Pacifique tropical et leurs impacts sur l’Arctique et l’Antarctique
ABSTRACT: The global average temperature increased rapidly from about 1980 to 2000, but it has not increased appreciably in the past 15 years or so – despite a significant increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. The stall in the rise in global temperature, called the “hiatus”, is due in large part to a decrease in the sea surface temperature in the eastern tropical and subtropical Pacific. In this talk, I will present results that demonstrate the decadal‐scale trends in the tropical Pacific were likely responsible for the destabilization of the Pine Island Glacier and other ice shelves in West Antarctic in the 1990s, and for about half of the remarkable warming over Greenland and northeast Canada in the past 15 years.
Several hypotheses have been put forward to describe the global hiatus and the tropical Pacific temperature trends – ranging from natural variability to a regional response to human activity (increased carbon dioxide or atmospheric aerosols). I will review these ideas, argue that climate models used by the IPCC are incapable for evaluating these
hypotheses, and suggest a way forward so that we can better understand the cause of past climate variability and improve the projections of future climate.
RÉSUMÉ: La moyenne mondiale de température a augmenté rapidement durant les années 1980 à 2000, mais n’a pas augmenté autant au cours des quelque quinze dernières années, malgré une hausse importante de dioxyde de carbone dans l’atmosphère. Cette discontinuité dans l’élévation des températures mondiales, appelée « hiatus », est surtout due à la baisse de la température superficielle de la mer dans la portion est du Pacifique tropical et subtropical.
La présentation portera sur les résultats démontrant que les tendances à l’échelle décennale dans le Pacifique tropical sont vraisemblablement responsables de la déstabilisation du glacier Pine Island et d’autres nappes glaciaires de l’Antarctique occidental dans les années 1990, et d’environ la moitié du remarquable réchauffement du Groenland et du nord‐ est du Canada durant les quinze dernières années.
Nombre d’hypothèses ont vu le jour pour décrire cet hiatus mondial et les tendances de températures dans le Pacifique tropical; hypothèses allant de la variabilité naturelle à une réaction régionale résultant de l’activité humaine (augmentation du dioxyde de carbone ou des aérosols atmosphériques). Je vais examiner ces idées, soutenir que les modèles de climat qu’utilise le GIEC sont incapables d’évaluer ces hypothèses et proposer une façon de progresser, afin de comprendre la cause de la variabilité passée du climat et d’améliorer les projections du climat futur.
BIO: David Battisti is The Tamaki Endowed Chair of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Washington. His research is focused on understanding the natural variability of the climate system. He is especially interested in understanding how the interactions between the ocean, atmosphere, land and sea ice lead to variability in climate on time scales from seasonal to decades. His previous research includes coastal oceanography, the physics of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, midlatitude atmosphere/ocean variability and variability in the coupled atmosphere/sea ice system in the Arctic. Battisti is presently working to reduce the
20
uncertainty in the response of ENSO to external forcing, to understand the impact of major orographic features on climate for the past 50 Myr, and to better understand the monsoons. He is also working on the impacts of climate variability and climate change on global food production.
Battisti has served as the Director of the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean at UW, the co‐chair of the Science Steering Committee for the U.S. Program on Climate Variability (US CLIVAR), and on several Committees of the National Research Council. He has published over 100 papers in peer‐review journals in atmospheric sciences and oceanography, and twice been awarded distinguished teaching awards.
BIO: David Battisti est titulaire de la chaire Tamaki pour les sciences atmosphériques de l’Université de Washington. Ses recherches visent à expliquer la variabilité naturelle du système climatique. D. Battisti cherche notamment à comprendre comment les interactions entre l’océan, l’atmosphère, la terre et la glace de mer régissent la variabilité du climat aux échelles saisonnières à décennales. Ses recherches précédentes portaient, entre autres, sur l’océanographie côtière, la physique du phénomène El Niño‐oscillation australe (ENSO), la variabilité atmosphérique et océanique des latitudes moyennes, et la variabilité du système couplé atmosphère‐glace marine dans l’Arctique. D. Battisti travaille actuellement à réduire l’incertitude pesant sur la réaction du phénomène ENSO au forçage externe, afin de comprendre l’impact de barrières orographiques majeures sur le climat des 50 derniers millions d’années, et de comprendre les moussons. Il étudie aussi les effets de l’évolution et de la variabilité du climat sur la production alimentaire mondiale.
Il a occupé le poste de directeur du Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean de l'Université de Washington et celui de coprésident du Science Steering Committee for the U.S. Program on Climate Variability (US CLIVAR). En outre, il a siégé à plusieurs comités du conseil national de recherche américain. D. Battisti a publié plus d’une centaine d’articles sur l’atmosphère et l’océanographie dans des revues avec comité de lecture, et a reçu à deux reprises un prix soulignant l’excellence de son enseignement.
Monday, June 1, 9:15 a.m. Lundi, 1 juin, 09h15
Elizabeth Barnes Assistant Professor, Professeure adjointe Colorado State University
The impact of Arctic warming on the midlatitude jetstream: Can it? Has it? Will it?
La transformation du courant‐jet des latitudes moyennes résultant du réchauffement de l’Arctique: est‐ce possible? Est‐ce fait? Est‐ce à prévoir?
ABSTRACT: The Arctic region has warmed more rapidly than the globe as a whole, and this has been accompanied by unprecedented sea ice melt. Such large environmental changes are already having profound impacts on those that live in the Arctic region. An open question, however, is whether these Arctic changes have an effect on weather patterns farther south. This broad question has recently received a lot of scientific and media attention, but conclusions appear contradictory rather than consensual. We argue that one point of confusion has arisen due to ambiguities in the exact question being posed. Here we frame our inquiries around three clear and tractable questions: Can Arctic warming influenced the midlatitude jet stream? Has Arctic warming significantly influenced the midlatitude jetstream? Will future Arctic warming significantly influence the midlatitude jet stream? Here, we will frame a discussion of jetstream variability around these three questions: Can it?, Has it?, Will it?; however, we note that these three questions are still a long way from being fully answered.
21
RÉSUMÉ: La région arctique s’est réchauffée plus rapidement que l’ensemble de la planète. Cette situation a entraîné une fonte des glaces sans précédent. Cette importante modification de l’environnement a déjà profondément perturbé les habitants de la région arctique. Une question demeure, toutefois. Les changements touchant l’Arctique ont‐ils une incidence sur les systèmes météorologiques au sud? Ce thème a récemment reçu une attention accrue de la part des scientifiques et des médias, mais les conclusions semblent se contredire plutôt que de s’accorder. Nous pensons que la confusion émane du fait que la question posée est ambiguë. Nous allons donc restreindre notre étude à trois questions claires et raisonnables.
Le réchauffement arctique peut‐il transformer le courant‐jet des latitudes moyennes? Le réchauffement arctique a‐t‐il transformé de manière significative le courant‐jet des latitudes moyennes? Le réchauffement arctique transformera‐t‐il de manière significative le courant‐ jet des latitudes moyennes? Nous limiterons donc la discussion sur la transformation du courant‐jet à ces trois questions ainsi reformulées : est‐ce possible? Est‐ce fait? Est‐ce à prévoir? Toutefois, il est à noter que ces trois questions sont loin d’être entièrement résolues.
BIO: Elizabeth (Libby) Barnes is an Assistant Professor at Colorado State University. She received her PhD from the University of Washington in 2012 and then took a 1‐year postdoc as a NOAA Climate and Global Change Fellow at the Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory before starting her position at CSU. Prof. Barnes’ research focuses on the midlatitude circulation in the past, present and future. Recently, she has done work on the response of the jet‐streams and their variability to future climate warming as well as how atmospheric transport and mixing by synoptic systems may vary under different climate states.
BIO: Elizabeth (Libby) Barnes est professeure adjointe à la Colorado State University. Elle a obtenu un doctorat de l’Université de Washington en 2012 et une bourse de recherche postdoctorale (climat et évolution mondiale) de la NOAA, pour travailler à l’observatoire terrestre Lamont‐Doherty, avant d’occuper son poste à l’université.
Ses recherches portent sur la circulation passée, présente et future dans les latitudes moyennes.
Récemment, E. Barnes a étudié la réaction et la variabilité des courants‐jets relativement au réchauffement climatique futur. Elle a aussi examiné comment varient le transport et le mélange atmosphériques que génèrent les systèmes synoptiques, et ce, suivant différentes situations climatiques.
Tuesday, June 2, 8:30 a.m. Mardi, 2 juin, 08h30 Mary‐Louise Timmermans Assistant Professor, Professeure adjointe Yale University
Arctic Ocean scales of variability and change
Échelles de variabilité et d’évolution de l’océan Arctique
ABSTRACT: This talk will review highlights of recent Arctic Ocean measurements, encompassing a wide range of temporal and spatial scales, in an exploration of ocean drivers of sea ice and climate change. Arctic freshwater dynamics, ocean heat and mixing processes, circulation and eddies, and atmosphere‐ice‐ocean interactions and their interrelationships will be surveyed. Observations indicate apparently rapid changes in the basin‐scale freshwater distribution that have marked effects on Arctic stratification. Recent measurements support the idea that a strengthened stratification limits the vertical flux of deep‐ocean heat. All ocean layers exhibit a rich mesoscale eddy field. Measurements further reveal an active submesoscale flow field that modifies heat, salt, and momentum fluxes between
22
the ocean and adjacent sea‐ice cover. Pervasive double‐diffusive structures link the smallest to the largest spatial scales of variability in the Arctic, and allow for constraints to be placed on the regional and temporal changes in the transfer of heat and salt.
RÉSUMÉ: Cette présentation résumera les récentes activités de mesure réalisées dans l’océan Arctique et couvrant une large gamme d’échelles temporelles et spatiales, afin d’explorer les changements climatiques et les facteurs océaniques régissant la glace de mer. Nous examinerons la dynamique des eaux douces de l’Arctique, la chaleur et le mélange dans l’océan, la circulation et les tourbillons, les interactions atmosphère‐glace‐océan, et leur interdépendance. Les observations laissent voir des changements rapides dans la répartition d’eau douce à l’échelle du bassin. Ceux‐ci perturbent notablement la stratification de l’océan Arctique. Des mesures récentes étayent l’hypothèse qu’une stratification accrue limite le flux vertical de la chaleur de l’océan profond. Toutes les couches de l’océan montrent des courants tourbillonnaires considérables à l’échelle moyenne. Ces mesures révèlent aussi un écoulement actif à l’échelle sous‐méso, lequel modifie les flux de chaleur, de sel et de quantité de mouvement entre l’océan et la couverture de glace marine adjacente. Des structures généralisées favorisant la diffusion double lient les plus petites échelles de variabilité spatiale aux plus grandes. Elles imposent donc certaines contraintes aux modifications régionales et temporelles du transfert de chaleur et de sel.
BIO: Mary‐Louise Timmermans is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Geology & Geophysics at Yale University. Her principal research focus is investigating the dynamics and variability of the Arctic Ocean to better understand how the ocean impacts Arctic sea ice and climate. Her approach is to apply theoretical models to geophysical observations, including measurements from an ice‐based network of drifting automated ocean‐profiling instruments, and hydrographic measurements from icebreaker surveys. Her research includes investigations of ocean mixing, eddies, waves, double‐diffusive heat transport, and freshwater and heat content in the upper Arctic Ocean. She received a B.S. in physics at the University of Victoria, and her PhD is in fluid mechanics from Cambridge University.
BIO: Mary‐Louise Timmermans est professeure adjointe au département de géologie et de géophysique de l’Université Yale. Elle étudie principalement la dynamique et la variabilité de l’océan Arctique, afin de comprendre les impacts de l’océan sur la glace marine et le climat. Mary‐Louise applique des modèles théoriques aux observations géophysiques, y compris des mesures issues d’un réseau de profileurs océaniques automatisés dérivant avec la glace et des mesures hydrographiques provenant de sondages réalisés à partir de brise‐glaces. Ses recherches incluent des études sur le mélange, les tourbillons, les vagues, le transport de chaleur en diffusion double dans l’océan, et le contenu en eaux douces et en chaleur des couches supérieures de l’Arctique. Elle détient un baccalauréat en physique de l’Université de Victoria et un doctorat en mécanique des fluides de l’Université de Cambridge.
Tuesday, June 2, 9:15 a.m. Mardi, 2 juin, 09h15
Marika Holland National Center for Atmospheric Research
Factors influencing the surface albedo feedback in coupled climate models
Facteurs agissant sur la rétroaction liée à l’albédo de la surface dans les modèles climatiques couplés
ABSTRACT: Amplified Arctic surface warming in response to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, or
23
so called Arctic Amplification, is a ubiquitous feature of climate model simulations. However, the magnitude of this amplification varies considerably across models, in part due to differing strengths of the simulated surface albedo feedback. Numerous factors influence the surface albedo response to rising greenhouse gas concentrations. These include changes in sea ice surface properties, ice‐covered area, and snow conditions. Here we assess a number of these factors using simulations from a large ensemble of the Community Earth System Model and simulations from other models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). This includes an analysis of aspects that contribute to the spread across models in projected albedo change and Arctic Amplification. The results provide insight on the uncertainty in future projections, possible methods to better constrain those projections, and model development needs.
RÉSUMÉ: L’amplification du réchauffement de la surface en Arctique, en réaction à la hausse des concentrations de gaz à effet de serre, est appelée amplification arctique et est une caractéristique omniprésente des modèles de simulation climatique. Toutefois, l’intensité de cette amplification varie considérablement d’un modèle à l’autre. Ces différences proviennent en partie de l’ampleur de la rétroaction liée à l’albédo simulé de la surface. De nombreux facteurs régissent la variation de l’albédo de la surface que provoquent les concentrations accrues de gaz à effet de serre. Ils comprennent la modification des propriétés de la surface de la glace marine, de l’étendue des zones de glace et des conditions nivales. Nous évaluerons certains de ces facteurs à l’aide de simulations provenant d’un large ensemble du Community Earth System Model (modèle communautaire du système terrestre) et des simulations issues d’autres modèles utilisés dans le cadre du Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (projet d’intercomparaison de modèles couplés ou CMIP5). Ce qui inclut une analyse des facteurs qui contribuent à l’écart entre les valeurs prévues d’albédo et celles de l’amplification arctique, d’un modèle à l’autre. Les conclusions donnent un aperçu de l’incertitude des projections à venir, des méthodes possibles pour circonscrire ces projections et des besoins relatifs au développement de modèles.
BIO: Dr. Marika M. Holland is a Senior Scientist in the Climate and Global Dynamics Division at the
National Center for Atmospheric Research. Her research interests are focused on the role of sea ice in the climate system, including secular sea ice change, sea ice predictability, and polar climate variability. Dr. Holland has extensive experience using coupled climate models to study polar climate variability and change and has been active in the development of improved sea ice models for climate simulations. She has served as co‐chair for the Polar Climate Working Group of the Community Earth System Model and Chief Scientist for the Community Earth System Model project. She has been a contributing author on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change third, fourth, and fifth assessment reports, contributed to numerous other national and international assessments on the changing Arctic climate, and is an author on over 70 peer‐reviewed publications. Dr. Holland received her Ph.D. in Atmosphere and Ocean Sciences from the University of Colorado in 1997 and performed a Postdoctoral fellowship at the University of Victoria in British Columbia before joining the scientific staff of NCAR’s Climate and Global Dynamic Division in 1999.
BIO: Marika M. Holland (Ph. D.) est scientifique principale à la division Climate and Global Dynamics du National Center for Atmospheric Research. Ses intérêts de recherche portent sur le rôle de la glace de mer relativement au système climatique, y compris les modifications séculaires et la prédictibilité de la glace de mer, et la variabilité du climat polaire. Madame Holland possède une très grande expérience des modèles climatiques couplés appliqués à l’étude de l’évolution et de la variabilité du climat polaire. Elle a participé activement au développement de modèles améliorés de glace marine, utiles à la simulation du climat. Elle a assumé la coprésidence du groupe de travail du Community Earth System Model (modèle communautaire du système terrestre) et occupé le poste de scientifique en chef du projet sur le Community Earth System Model. En outre, elle a été auteure collaboratrice des 3e, 4e et 5e rapports d’évaluation du Groupe d’experts intergouvernemental sur l’évolution du climat et a contribué à de nombreuses autres évaluations nationales et internationales sur l’évolution du climat arctique. Elle a rédigé ou corédigé plus de 70 articles révisés par des pairs. Marika Holland a obtenu son doctorat en sciences atmosphériques et océanographiques de l’Université du Colorado en
24
1997. Elle a occupé un poste de boursière de recherche postdoctorale à l’Université de Victoria (C.‐B.) avant de se joindre au personnel scientifique de la division Climate and Global Dynamic du NCAR, en 1999.
Wednesday, June 3, 8:30 a.m. Mercredi, 3 juin, 08h30
David B. Fissel Chair and Senior Scientist ASL Environmental Sciences Inc.
Canadian Arctic Oceanography: present and future research priorities based on lessons from the past
Océanographie de l’Arctique canadien : priorités de recherche présentes et futures selon les leçons apprises
ABSTRACT: Major advances have been realized over the past forty years in our scientific understandings of the physical oceanography and marine ice regime of the Canadian Arctic. These advances have been driven by the increased priority of Arctic research at the Canadian federal government level, albeit often uneven in its application, and more priority at the international level over the past two decades. A related impetus for Arctic oceanography and ice research has been the search for natural resources including offshore oil and gas and mining along with the increased awareness of environmental assessments for proposed industrial developments. Scientifically, the
awareness of the importance of the Arctic to climate change and to the global ocean has also been an important driver for Arctic research. Over the past four decades, Canadian Arctic ocean and ice research has been challenged by the remoteness of the area including the high cost of accessing it by ship for short periods in summer. Key enablers of Arctic Ocean and ice research are technological advancements including: satellite and aircraft based remote sensing, advances in underwater instrument arrays to allow year‐long observation measurement programs from subsurface moorings; satellite communications systems for allowing data collection from ice‐ and ocean‐based drifting platforms; numerical modeling advances. While improved technology have benefited oceanographic research on a global basis, the benefits have been largest in remote areas of the planet such as the Canadian Arctic. Even with these advances, the Canadian Arctic remains less well understand than for the more temperate oceans adjoining Canada, especially in the long period of ice cover within each year. Scientific understandings must address the high degree of interannual variability in the Arctic, combined with the very large climate changes of the Arctic by comparison to other parts of the world. Key gaps in our present understandings will be presented leading to some proposed research priorities for the future.
RÉSUMÉ: Des progrès scientifiques majeurs ont été accomplis au cours des quarante dernières années en ce qui concerne la compréhension de l’océanographie physique et du régime des glaces marines dans l’océan Arctique. Ces progrès résultent de la priorité accrue, quoique souvent fluctuante, donnée à la recherche sur l’Arctique au sein du gouvernement fédéral canadien, ainsi qu’à la priorité accordée à ce sujet, à l’échelle internationale, au cours des vingt dernières années. La recherche de ressources naturelles au large, y compris le gaz, le pétrole et les minerais, a suscité un engouement supplémentaire pour la recherche liée à l’océanographie de l’Arctique et à la glace, parallèlement à l’intérêt accru soulevé par les évaluations environnementales associées à d’éventuels aménagements industriels. La sensibilisation à l’importance scientifique de l’Arctique relativement aux changements climatiques et aux océans mondiaux a aussi considérablement favorisé la recherche sur cette région polaire.
25
Au cours des quarante dernières années, la recherche sur l’océan Arctique canadien et sur la glace est demeurée difficile à cause de leur éloignement, qui entraîne des coûts élevés de déplacement par bateau pendant de courtes périodes estivales. Les progrès technologiques sont des outils clés de la recherche sur l’océan Arctique et sur la glace. Ils comprennent la télédétection par satellite et par avion; les séries d’instruments sous‐marins qui permettent la mise en place de programme d’observation tout au long de l’année, à partir de mouillages installés sous la surface; les systèmes de communication par satellite qui permettent la collecte de données provenant de plateformes dérivant dans l’océan et avec la glace; les modèles numériques de dernière génération. Bien que ces améliorations technologiques aient profité à la recherche océanographique partout dans le monde, les gains se sont avérés les plus importants dans les régions éloignées de la planète, comme l’Arctique canadien.
Malgré ces avancées, l’Arctique canadien demeure moins bien compris que les océans tempérés qui touchent le pays, notamment en ce qui a trait aux longues périodes annuelles de couverture maximale de glace. Les scientifiques doivent se pencher sur le haut degré de variabilité interannuelle dans l’Arctique combiné aux changements climatiques plus importants dans cette région qu’ailleurs sur la planète. Des suggestions de recherches prioritaires pour le futur seront présentées à la suite d’informations sur les plus importantes lacunes minant notre compréhension.
BIO: After completing an M.Sc. in physical oceanography at the University of British Columbia in 1975, David worked as a research oceanographer at the Institute of Ocean Sciences of the Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) in Sidney B.C. In 1977, he co‐founded ASL Environmental Sciences Inc. (originally Arctic Sciences Ltd.), and has held a number of senior positions in the company as it has grown to become Canada’s largest physical oceanographic company with a staff of more than 50 highly qualified personnel, mainly scientists and engineers.
Since founding ASL Environmental Sciences Inc. in 1977, David Fissel has managed hundreds of oceanographic projects, involving studies of ocean currents, waves, and sea‐ice in various parts of all
three oceans bordering Canada as well as overseas projects. Most of these projects involved Arctic research with many of them providing input to the design of offshore oil and gas facilities, port development, or environmental assessment and monitoring for coastal and deepwater developments. In 1996, he founded the Product Division of ASL with the launch of the ASL Ice Profiler. ASL sells underwater acoustic instruments on a global basis, with major markets in the United States, the European Community, Norway, Japan, Korea, and Australia. David has co‐authored over 28 papers in peer‐reviewed scientific journals and approximately 52 scientific conference papers as well as hundreds of technical reports.
David has served on the Board or local executives of several scientific organizations, industry associations and business community groups. He was the Vice‐President, President and Past‐President of the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (CMOS) from 2009‐2012 and is presently on the Boards of: Ocean Initiatives BC (since 2005); the Canadian Ocean Glider Foundation (since 2006); Ocean Networks Canada (Neptune Canada and Venus Ocean Observatories, since 2009) at the University of Victoria; and the Marine Environmental and Observation Prediction and Response (MEOPAR) National Centre of Excellence (NCE) at Dalhousie University (since 2012). He was a member of the Science Advisory Council for Fisheries and Oceans Canada (2005‐2009) and he was a founding member of the Science, Technology and Innovation Council of Canada (2007‐2010; which reports directly to the Canadian Minister of Industry). While CMOS President, he served as an ex‐officio member of the Board of the Canadian Foundation for Atmospheric and Climate Sciences and on the Canadian National Committee for the Scientific Council on Ocean Research (CNC‐SCOR). David chaired a Core Panel on the Leading Research Priorities for the Canadian Ocean Science for the Canadian Council of Academies in 2012. He is the CSA Working Group Chair for Metocean international standards (ISO 19901‐1).
BIO: Après avoir obtenu une maîtrise en océanographie physique de l’Université de la Colombie‐Britannique en 1975, David a travaillé comme chercheur en océanographie à l’Institut des sciences de la mer du ministère des Pêches et des Océans (MPO), à Sidney (C.‐B.). En 1977, il a cofondé
26
ASL Environmental Sciences Inc. (anciennement Arctic Sciences Ltd.) et a occupé plusieurs postes de haut niveau au sein de cette société. Celle‐ci constitue maintenant la plus grande entreprise d’océanographie physique au Canada. Elle emploie plus de cinquante personnes hautement qualifiées, pour la plupart des scientifiques ou des ingénieurs.
Depuis la fondation d’ASL Environmental Sciences Inc. en 1977, David Fissel a géré des centaines de projets liés à l’océanographie, comprenant l’étude de courants océaniques, de vagues et de glace marine, dans diverses parties des trois océans entourant le Canada, ainsi que des projets à l’étranger. La plupart de ces projets portaient sur l’Arctique. Certains ont mené à la conception d’installations gazières et pétrolières en mer, à l’aménagement de ports, ou à des évaluations et à de la surveillance environnementales visant des installations côtières et en eau profonde. En 1996, il a fondé la division « Product » d’ASL en lançant un profileur de glace (ASL Ice Profiler). ASL vend des instruments acoustiques sous‐marins partout dans le monde. Ses principaux marchés se situent aux États‐Unis, au sein de la Communauté européenne, en Norvège, au Japon, en Corée et en Australie. David a corédigé plus de 25 articles publiés dans des revues scientifiques avec comité de lecture, près de 50 communications scientifiques, ainsi que des centaines de rapports techniques.
Il a siégé au conseil ou à la direction locale de plusieurs organisations scientifiques, d’associations d’industries et de groupes d’affaires. Il a été vice‐président, président et président sortant de la Société canadienne de météorologie et d’océanographie (SCMO) de 2009 à 2012, et siège actuellement au conseil des organismes suivants : Ocean Initiatives BC (depuis 2005); Canadian Ocean Glider Foundation (depuis 2006); Ocean Networks Canada (observatoires Neptune Canada et Venus Ocean, depuis 2009) de l’Université de Victoria; Marine Environmental and Observation Prediction and Response (MEOPAR) du Réseau de centres d’excellence (RCE) de l’Université Dalhousie (depuis 2012). Il était membre du Comité consultatif scientifique pour les pêches et les océans (2005 à 2009) et membre fondateur du Conseil des sciences, de la technologie et de l’innovation (2007 à 2010), qui relève directement du ministre canadien de l’Industrie. Tandis qu’il présidait la SCMO, David a été membre d’office de la Fondation canadienne
pour les sciences du climat et de l’atmosphère (FCSCA) et du Comité national canadien du Comité scientifique pour les recherches océaniques (CNC du SCOR). En 2012, il a assumé la présidence du groupe‐cadre d’experts sur les questions de recherche prioritaires en océanographie canadienne relevant du Conseil canadien des académies. Il est président du groupe de travail de la CSA pour les normes internationales océano‐météo (ISO 19901‐1).
Wednesday, June 3, 9:15 a.m. Mercredi, 3 juin, 09h15 Nadja Steiner
Marine biogeochemistry in the Arctic Biogéochimie marine dans l’Arctique
ABSTRACT: Climate change forces multiple stressors on Arctic marine ecosystems, such as warming, sea‐ice retreat, ocean acidification and enhanced stratification limiting food supply. Expanding economic development might cause additional stressors, e.g. pollution and potential oil spills. Many changes are faster and more profound in the Arctic than in any other region of the world ocean, hence the study of marine biogeochemical processes in high latitudes has received a boost of attention in the last two decades. With a variety of projects including intense measurement programs we somewhat belatedly struggle to establish some baseline before potentially irreversible system changes occur. Projecting future ecosystem responses to climate change and other potential stressors requires the application of numerical
27
ecosystem models. The 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) includes for the first time a variety of Earth system models (ESMs, model systems with fully coupled atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land components including interactive biogeochemical modules for all components), allowing the study of future projections of the marine carbon cycle and ecosystem behavior. However, the still fairly coarse horizontal and vertical resolution restricts the ability to resolve biological or chemical processes happening in the euphotic zone as well as small‐scale physical processes important for biogeochemistry. Model skill for biogeochemical variables in global ESMs is still low, especially for the Arctic, where observational data are few and seasonally biased, and where shelf areas and narrow passages are common features. I will provide an update of results from ESM intercomparison studies in the Arctic which show both consistent trends (e.g. acidification) as well as differences (e.g. future primary production) among the models. I will discuss the shortcomings in ESMs and improvements obtained with the application of higher resolution regional models. In addition I will highlight the use of 1‐D models in the development of model parameterizations, including biogeochemical, mixing, gas and radiative transfer processes. An example is the 1D General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) plus sea ice which is used for physical forcing and coupled to biogeochemistry modules via the Framework for Aquatic Biogeochemical Models (FABM). Following a main focus on the pelagic ecosystem, I will then guide some attention to sea‐ice biogeochemistry. Our knowledge of the role sea‐ice biogeochemical processes play in local and global systems is severely limited by our poor confidence in numerical model parameterisations representing those processes. Improving those parameterisations requires communication between observationalists and modellers to both guide model development and improve the aquisition and presentation of observational results. In addition to more observations, we need conceptual and quantitative descriptions of the processes controlling e.g. the incorporation and release of sea ice algae, the magnitude and limits of primary production, and the release or absorption of radiatively active gases, such as CO2 and DMS. I will present some guidelines to help modellers, and observationalists improve the integration of measurements and modelling efforts and advance towards the common goal of understanding the biogeochemical processes
involved and their impacts on environmental systems.
RÉSUMÉ: Les changements climatiques imposent de multiples facteurs de stress sur les écosystèmes marins de l’Arctique : réchauffement, recul de la glace de mer, acidification des océans et renforcement de la stratification limitant la disponibilité des aliments. Le développement économique pourrait ajouter des facteurs de stress supplémentaires, par exemple, la pollution et d’éventuels déversements d’hydrocarbures. Beaucoup de changements se manifestent plus rapidement et plus profondément dans l’Arctique que dans toute autre région océanique de la planète. Ainsi, l’étude des processus biogéochimiques marins dans les hautes latitudes a connu un regain d’intérêt au cours des vingt dernières années. Grâce à divers projets comprenant des programmes de mesures intenses, nous nous sommes tardivement efforcés de déterminer un état de base avant que des modifications potentiellement irréversibles ne touchent le système. La prévision de la réaction future des écosystèmes suivant l’évolution du climat et d’autres facteurs de stress éventuels nécessite l’application de modèles numériques simulant ces écosystèmes. Le cinquième projet d’intercomparaison des modèles couplés (CMIP5) comprend pour la première fois une série de modèles du système terrestre (Earth System Models ou ESM). Ces modèles entièrement couplés incluent des composantes pour l’atmosphère, la mer, la terre et la glace de mer, ainsi que des modules biogéochimiques pour toutes ces composantes. Ils permettent l’étude de l’évolution future du cycle du carbone marin et du comportement des écosystèmes. Toutefois, les résolutions horizontales et verticales plutôt grossières des simulations limitent la capacité de résoudre les processus biologiques et chimiques qui surviennent dans la zone euphotique, ainsi que la physique de petite échelle, qui influe grandement sur les processus biogéochimiques. La capacité des modèles du système terrestre à prévoir les variables biogéochimiques demeure inadéquate, notamment pour l’Arctique, où les observations sont rares et comportent un biais saisonnier, et où les plateaux et les passages étroits ne manquent pas. Je présenterai une mise à jour des résultats de l’intercomparaison des modèles du système terrestre
28
pour l’Arctique, qui montrent d’un modèle à l’autre des tendances cohérentes (p. ex. pour l’acidification), ainsi que des différences (p. ex. pour la production primaire future). Je discuterai des faiblesses des modèles du système terrestre et des améliorations obtenues en utilisant des modèles régionaux de résolution supérieure. En outre, je discuterai de l’utilisation de modèles unidimensionnels dans le développement de paramétrisations décrivant les processus biogéochimiques, le mélange, et les transferts gazeux et radiatifs, entre autres. Le General Ocean Turbulence Model (modèle général de turbulence océanique) incluant la glace de mer en est un exemple. Il est utilisé pour les forçages physiques et est couplé aux modules biogéochimiques à l’aide du Framework for Aquatic Biogeochemical Models (cadre pour les modèles aquatiques biogéochimiques) ou FABM. Après avoir discuté de l’écosystème pélagique, j’attirerai votre attention sur la biogéochimie de la glace marine. La fiabilité insuffisante des paramétrisations des modèles numériques représentant ces processus limite sérieusement nos connaissances sur le rôle que jouent les processus biogéochimiques de la glace marine au sein des systèmes locaux et mondiaux. L’amélioration de ces paramétrisations nécessite une collaboration entre les spécialistes des observations et les modélisateurs, afin d’orienter le développement des modèles, et d’améliorer l’acquisition et la présentation des résultats d’observation. En plus d’observations supplémentaires, nous avons besoin de descriptions conceptuelles et quantitatives des processus régissant, par exemple, l’incorporation et la libération d’algues de glace, la magnitude et les limites de la production primaire, et le rejet et l’absorption de gaz agissant sur le rayonnement, comme le CO2 et le méthane. Je proposerai des pistes de solutions pour aider les modélisateurs et les spécialistes des observations à améliorer l’intégration des mesures et des activités de modélisation, afin de progresser vers un objectif commun : la compréhension des processus biogéochimiques pertinents et leur impact sur les systèmes environnementaux.
BIO: Nadja Steiner is a research scientist with Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO), located at the Institute of Ocean Sciences (IOS) in Sidney, BC, with a temporary assignment to the Canadian Centre for
Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma). Nadja is originally from Germany. She did her PhD on modelling sea ice roughness at the Institute of Marine Research in Kiel and came to Canada in 2000 to work within the Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project at IOS. She continued on as a PostDoc within Canadian SOLAS where she started modelling ecosystem and gas exchange processes. She now works on the development of coupled atmosphere‐ocean ecosystem models to study the marine sulphur and carbon cycles in the North Pacific and Arctic. In collaboration with CCCma's Canadian Earth System Modelling group she is developing parameterizations for Arctic marine ecosystems and evaluates marine ecosystem responses to climate change. She is a contributing author of AMAP's recent and upcoming Arctic Ocean Acidification assessments as well as the AMAP Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic (AACA) assessment. She lead the Arctic trends and projections assessment of DFO's Aquatic Climate Change Adaptation Services Program and is co‐chair of the SCOR‐WG 140 on Biogeochemical Exchange Processes at Sea‐Ice Interfaces (BEPSII). She is also an adjunct professor at the University of Victoria.
BIO: Nadja Steiner est chercheuse à l’Institut des sciences de la mer (ISM) du ministère des Pêches et des Océans (MPO), à Sidney (C.‐B.) et profite actuellement d’une affectation temporaire au Centre canadien de la modélisation et de l’analyse climatique (CCmaC). Elle est originaire de l’Allemagne. Nadja a reçu un doctorat pour ses travaux sur la rugosité de l’océan, effectués à l’institut de recherche marine de Kiel. Elle est arrivée au Canada en 2000 pour se joindre au projet d’intercomparaison des modèles océaniques appliqués à l’Arctique, au sein de l’ISM. Elle a ensuite entrepris la modélisation d’écosystèmes et de processus d’échanges gazeux dans le cadre canadien du projet SOLAS, grâce à une bourse de recherche postdoctorale. Nadja travaille maintenant sur le développement de modèles couplés atmosphère‐écosystème marin, afin d’étudier les cycles du soufre et du carbone marins dans le Pacifique Nord et dans l’Arctique. En collaboration avec le groupe canadien de modélisation du système terrestre du CCmaC, elle développe des paramétrisations simulant les écosystèmes marins arctiques et évalue leur réaction par rapport aux changements climatiques. Elle est auteure collaboratrice de la récente évaluation de l’acidification de l’océan Arctique du Programme de
29
surveillance et d’évaluation de l’Arctique (PSEA), ainsi que de l’évaluation des mesures d’adaptation relative à l’évolution de l’Arctique de ce même programme. Elle est responsable de l’évaluation des tendances et des projections, laquelle relève du Programme des services d’adaptation aux changements climatiques en milieu aquatique du MPO. Elle est coprésidente du groupe de travail 140 du SCOR, sur les processus d’échange biogéochimique à l’interface mer‐glace (BEPSII). Nadja occupe aussi le poste de professeure auxiliaire à l’Université de Victoria.
Thursday, June 4, 8:30 a.m. Jeudi, 4 juin, 08h30 Garry Clarke
Twenty‐first century warming and the deglaciation of Western Canada
Le réchauffement au XXIe siècle et la déglaciation de l’ouest du Canada
ABSTRACT: Glaciers in mountainous parts of Alberta and British Columbia are faring badly in a warming climate. We project their future using a regional glaciation model (RGM): a coupled model of glacier dynamics and surface mass balance. The model is forced by an ensemble of global climate models, downscaled to the 200 m resolution of the RGM, and four climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). Our results indicate that by 2100 the volume of glacier ice in western Canada will
shrink by as much as 80% relative to 2005. Most mountain ranges become completely deglaciated, but glaciers near the Pacific coast, in particular those in northwestern British Columbia, will survive in a diminished state. The maximum rate of ice volume loss, corresponding to peak input of deglacial meltwater to streams and rivers, is projected to occur around 2020–2040.
RÉSUMÉ: Les glaciers des régions montagneuses de l’Alberta et de la Colombie‐Britannique se portent mal en raison du réchauffement climatique. Nous prévoyons leur état futur à l’aide d’un modèle régional de glaciation (RGM), un modèle couplé simulant la dynamique des glaciers et le bilan massique en surface. Les forçages du modèle proviennent d’un ensemble de modèles globaux de climat, dont l’échelle est réduite à la résolution du RGM, soit 200 mètres, et de quatre scénarios climatiques (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 et RCP8.5).
Les résultats montrent que d’ici 2100, le volume de glace de glaciers dans l’ouest du Canada fondra de 80 % par rapport au volume de 2005. La plupart des chaînes de montagnes seront complètement libres de glace. Les glaciers près de la côte du Pacifique, notamment ceux du nord‐ouest de la Colombie‐Britannique, persisteront, mais dans un état réduit. Le taux maximal de perte de volume de glace, qui correspond à l’apport maximal d’eau de fonte de déglaciation atteignant les cours d’eau, est censé se produire vers les années 2020 à 2040.
BIO: Garry Clarke received his doctorate in physics in 1967 from the University of Toronto and is currently Emeritus Professor of Geophysics in the Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of British Columbia. His research speciality is glaciology and his particular expertise is in subglacial physical processes, subglacial hydrology, the stability of glaciers and ice sheets, and cryospheric agents of abrupt climate change. He has spearheaded a 35‐year glaciological field study in the Yukon Territory, Canada, that involves drilling and extensive use of subglacial instrumentation and he is also active in the development of theory and computational models of glacier and ice sheet dynamics. Clarke has served as President of the International Glaciological Society and the Canadian Geophysical Union and received the highest scientific awards of both these organizations.* He was a lead author of the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
30
on Climate Change and a contributing author to the Fourth Assessment. Clarke is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada, the American Geophysical Union, and the Arctic Institute of North America.
BIO: Garry Clarke a obtenu un doctorat en physique de l’Université de Toronto. Il est actuellement professeur émérite de géophysique au département des sciences de la Terre, des océans et de l’atmosphère à l’Université de la Colombie‐Britannique. Il se spécialise en glaciologie. Ses compétences couvrent notamment les processus physiques et l’hydrologie sous‐glaciaires, la stabilité des glaciers et des nappes glaciaires, et les facteurs cryosphériques générant d’abrupts changements climatiques. Il a été le fer de lance d’une étude in situ de 35 ans en glaciologie, au Yukon (Canada). Ses recherches comprenaient des forages et l’utilisation fréquente d’instruments sous‐glaciaires. G. Clarke participe aussi activement au développement de théories et de modèles informatiques expliquant la dynamique de glaciers et de nappes glaciaires. Il a été président de la Société internationale de glaciologie et de l’Union géophysique canadienne. Il a en outre reçu les distinctions scientifiques les plus élevées qu’octroient ces deux organismes. Il est l’un des auteurs principaux du Troisième Rapport d’évaluation du Groupe d’experts intergouvernemental sur l’évolution du climat et auteur collaborateur du Quatrième Rapport d’évaluation. G. Clarke est membre de la Société royale du Canada, de l’American Geophysical Union et de l’Institut arctique de l’Amérique du Nord.
Thursday, June 4, 9:15 a.m. Jeudi, 4 juin, 09h15 Chris McLinden
Eye in the sky: Monitoring air pollution from space
Du haut des airs : la surveillance de la pollution à partir de l’espace
ABSTRACT: Beginning in earnest around 2000, several satellite instruments have been launched that are designed primarily to quantify air pollution levels in the lowermost atmosphere. These "air quality" sensors measure either sunlight reflected by Earth and its atmosphere, or radiation emitted from them, and from this are able to provide global information on a wide range of compounds linked to smog and acid rain. These include ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide, carbon monoxide, ammonia, particulate matter, and others. Beyond the more straightforward monitoring and trend applications, these measurements are being used in conjunction with atmospheric models to provide insight into current and near‐future surface concentrations of these pollutants as well as their rates of emission and their environmental impacts. This talk will: (i) review what types of data are currently available along with their strengths and limitations, (ii) present examples of how these data are applied towards pollution monitoring, trend assessment, emissions, and impacts (including findings from the Alberta oil sands), (iii) discuss challenges unique to Canada and other nations at higher latitudes, (iv) examine what the future may
31
hold, and (v) touch on how these analyses and results are relevant for policy and decision‐makers.
RÉSUMÉ: Concrètement, depuis à peu près 2000, plusieurs instruments embarqués sur des satellites ont été conçus principalement pour quantifier les niveaux de pollution de l’air dans la basse atmosphère. Ces capteurs de « qualité de l’air » mesurent soit la lumière solaire réfléchie par la Terre et l’atmosphère, soit le rayonnement émis par ceux‐ci. À partir de ces mesures, il est possible d’obtenir des informations sur une large gamme de composés liés au smog et aux pluies acides, partout sur la planète. Ces substances comprennent l’ozone, le dioxyde d’azote, le dioxyde de soufre, le monoxyde de carbone, l’ammoniac, les matières particulaires et autres. Au‐delà des applications habituelles de surveillance et de calculs de tendances, ces mesures sont utilisées avec des modèles atmosphériques, afin d’estimer en surface les concentrations actuelles et prochaines de ces polluants, ainsi que leurs taux d’émission et leurs incidences environnementales. Cette présentation permettra : i) d’examiner les types de données actuellement disponibles et de connaître leurs forces et leurs limitations; ii) de présenter des exemples d’applications de ces données à la surveillance, à l’évaluation des tendances, aux émissions et aux incidences de la pollution (incluant des résultats provenant des sables bitumineux de l’Alberta); iii) de discuter des enjeux particuliers au Canada et aux autres pays des hautes latitudes; iv) d’examiner ce que nous réserve le futur; v) de voir comment ces analyses et ces résultats influent sur les politiques et en quoi elles concernent les décideurs.
BIO: Dr. Chris McLinden, from Barrie, Ontario, completed his undergraduate in Engineering Physics at McMaster University in 1993 and his Ph.D. in Physics & Astronomy at York University in 1998. He joined Environment Canada in Toronto as a Research Scientist in 2001 following a post‐doc at the University of California at Irvine. Chris’ research is aimed at developing improved methods for measuring pollution from space, and using these to help understand its sources, distributions, trends, and impacts. He has authored or co‐authored over 85 articles in the peer‐reviewed literature, is a member of several satellite instrument science teams, and has developed models and algorithms used by research institutes internationally. Chris currently resides in Barrie with his wife, daughter, dog and cat. In his spare time he enjoys playing guitar and pouring over sports statistics.
BIO: Chris McLinden (Ph. D.), de Barrie en Ontario, a obtenu un diplôme de 1er cycle en génie physique de l’Université McMaster en 1993 et un doctorat en physique et astronomie de l’Université York en 1998. En 2001, il est entré comme chercheur au service d’Environnement Canada à Toronto, après avoir été boursier de recherche postdoctorale à l’Université de la Californie (Irvine). Ses recherches visent le développement de méthodes améliorées de mesure de la pollution à partir de l’espace, afin de comprendre les sources, la répartition, les tendances et les incidences des polluants. Il est l’auteur ou le coauteur de plus de 85 articles publiés dans des revues à comité de lecture. Il est membre de plusieurs équipes scientifiques s’intéressant aux instruments à bord de satellites et il a développé des modèles et des algorithmes qu’utilisent des instituts de recherche internationaux. Chris habite à Barrie avec sa conjointe, sa fille, un chien et un chat. Dans ses temps libres, il joue de la guitare et compulse les statistiques sportives.
32
Workshops and Special Sessions Ateliers et sessions spéciales
Workshop on Communicating Uncertainty to Users of Weather Forecasts
Sunday, May 31 | 10:00 – 16:30
Room: Garibaldi
There can be a significant gap between what forecasters know and what users of weather forecasts ultimately receive. Most (government‐issued) forecasts are comprised of deterministic textual information with few outlets for forecasters to express the inherent uncertainty that is associated with predicting the weather. In the last decade, there have been numerous studies related to communicating forecast uncertainty to different types of end‐users. The findings support the notion that uncertainty information is wanted and can be used effectively by decision makers. Indeed, some weather services have made efforts to incorporate uncertainty information beyond basic probability of precipitation forecasts. For example, some offer expressions of forecasters’ confidence while others provide output from Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) to indicate the probability of occurrence of events. Still, a deeper understanding is lacking about what type of forecast uncertainty information is most useful and how best to communicate it. This workshop will include invited speakers along with facilitated discussions or breakout sessions. Invited speakers, panelists and participants will be asked to address topics related to uncertainty, including (but not limited to):
• Sources of forecast uncertainty • Scales of uncertainty • Using forecast uncertainty to aid in decision making • The use of Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) to communicate uncertainty • Effective Communication: Words – numbers – graphics
Atelier sur la communication des incertitudes aux utilisateurs de prévisions météorologiques
Dimanche, 31 mai | 10h00 – 16h30
Salle: Garibaldi
Il peut exister un écart considérable entre ce que les prévisionnistes savent et ce que les utilisateurs des prévisions météorologiques reçoivent. La plupart des prévisions (émises par le gouvernement) contiennent des informations textuelles prédéterminées, et ainsi très peu de façons pour le prévisionniste d’exprimer les incertitudes inhérentes à la prévision du temps. Au cours des dix dernières années, de nombreuses études ont traité de la communication des incertitudes des prévisions destinées à différents types d’utilisateurs. Les résultats confirment que les décideurs veulent des informations sur l’incertitude et peuvent les utiliser efficacement. En fait, des services météorologiques ont incorporé des informations sur l’incertitude qui vont au‐delà des simples probabilités de précipitations. Par exemple, certains laissent le prévisionniste exprimer son niveau de confiance, tandis que d’autres fournissent les sorties de prévisions d’ensemble, afin d’indiquer la probabilité d’occurrence de phénomènes météorologiques. Toutefois, il faut encore comprendre quel type de prévision profiterait d’informations sur l’incertitude et la manière de la communiquer.
Cet atelier inclut des conférenciers, et des discussions dirigées ou en petits groupes. Nous demandons aux conférenciers, aux panélistes et aux participants de choisir des sujets liés à l’incertitude, y compris, sans s’y limiter :
• les sources des incertitudes minant la prévision
33
• les échelles d’incertitude • l’utilisation de l’incertitude de la prévision comme aide à la prise de décision • l’utilisation des prévisions d’ensemble pour communiquer l’incertitude • la communication efficace : mots – nombres – graphiques
CMOS & AMS Student and Early Career Scientist Lunch 'n Learn Monday, June 1 | 12:00 – 13:30
Room: Harmony
Are you a student or early career scientist (earned your degree in the last 5 years) looking to make your way in the
industry? Interested in meeting and hearing perspectives from leaders in industry, government and academia?
Usually hungry around lunch time? Come to the CMOS / AMS Student & ECS Lunch 'n Learn on Monday June 1
from 12 to 1:30. Representatives from top organizations and institutions will give their views on a host of issues
facing our industry and then sit with you in a small group to hear your thoughts and questions. The event will be
held in the Harmony room. Lunch will be provided to all conference attendees.
Dîner‐causerie pour étudiants et chercheur en début de carrière présenté par SCMO et l’AMS
Lundi, 1 juin | 12h – 13h30
Salle : Harmony
Êtes‐vous étudiant ou chercheur en début de carrière (diplômé au cours des 5 dernières années) qui désire
débuter votre chemin dans l'industrie? Intéressé à rencontrer et d'entendre les perspectives des dirigeants de
l'industrie, du gouvernement et du milieu universitaire? Et avez‐vous habituellement faim autour de midi? Venez
donc au dîner‐causerie SCMO / AMS pour étudiant qui se tiendra le lundi 1er Juin de midi à 13h30. Des
représentants de grandes organisations et d’institutions offriront leurs points de vue sur une panoplie de sujets
auxquels font face notre industrie. Vous pourriez ensuite vous assoir avec ces professionnels en petit groupe pour
partager vos pensées et vos questions. L'événement aura lieu dans la salle de l'Harmonie. Le dîner sera offert à
tous les participants à la conférence.
A practical guide to using the Community Earth System Model and Regional Arctic System Model for
polar climate research – One Hour American Meteorological Society Short Course
Tuesday, June 2 | 15:30 – 17:00
Room: Garibaldi A
Workshop Convenors: Edward Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth,
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington
Andrew Roberts
Department of Oceanography, Naval Postgraduate School
This short course is an introduction to running and using the latest versions of the Community Earth System Model
(CESM) and the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) for polar climate research. CESM is an open source fully
coupled global model, one of the three national climate models supported federally in the U.S.. RASM is a regional
counterpart to CESM that uses the same model infrastructure, as well as identical sea ice (CICE) and ocean models
(POP), as well as flux coupler (CPL). During this practical one‐hour guide, latest and upcoming polar enhancements
to CESM and RASM will be explained, especially focusing on new physics available in Version 5 of the Los Alamos
34
Sea Ice Model (CICE) and their implementation in the CESM/RASM coupled framework. The one‐hour session will
also include a tutorial on downloading, setting up and running CESM and RASM, with tips and tricks for processing
and analyzing model output. There will be time for questions during the short course.
NSERC Update Session
Tuesday, June 2 | 15:30 – 17:30
Room: Harmony
This is an opportunity to discuss and learn more about our NSERC’s Discovery Grants programs and policies. The
session will serve as a platform for NSERC to share the latest program news and the latest DG competition results
with a focus on those from the Geosciences Evaluation Group.
Debrief from the Atmosphere‐Related Research in Canadian Universities (ARRCU) workshop: The ARRCU Working
Group will be holding its workshop in Montreal on May 8, 2015 with the main purpose of discussing the ARRCU
white paper, which is an ad hoc effort to create a strategic plan for atmosphere‐related research for Canadian
universities. This session will allow those who were unable to attend the Montreal meeting to hear the outcomes
and plans for the future of this initiative.
Session de mise‐à‐jour du CRSNG
Mardi, le 2 juin | 15h30 – 17h30
Salle : Harmony
Ce sera l'occasion de discuter et d'en apprendre davantage sur le Programme de subventions à la découverte du
CRSNG et des politiques qui les entourent. La session servira de plate‐forme pour le CRSNG de partager leurs
dernières nouvelles reliées au Programme ainsi que les derniers résultats de la concurrence DG avec un accent sur
ceux du Groupe d'évaluation des géosciences.
Compte rendu de l’atelier de la Recherche atmosphère‐connexes dans les universités canadiennes (RACUC): Le
Groupe de travail RACUC tiendra son atelier à Montréal, le 8 mai 2015, avec l'objectif principal de discuter le livre
blanc RACUC, qui est un effort ad hoc de créer un plan stratégique pour la recherche sur l'atmosphère pour les
universités canadiennes. Cette session permettra à ceux qui n’ont pu assister à la réunion de Montréal d’entendre
les résultats et les plans pour l'avenir de cette initiative.
CMOS Special Session
Tuesday, June 2 | 15:30 – 17:30
Room: Rainbow
1. A summary of the “Future of Weather Enterprise” presentation that was made at the 2014 World
Weather Open Science Conference in Montreal will be presented.
2. Next steps for the future of existing CMOS programs (Webinars, Mentoring Program, Recruiting Large
Users, Media relationship, etc.) will be discussed.
3. CMOS volunteer recruitment discussion.
4. Audience feedback regarding the future of CMOS will be collected.
35
Session spécial de la SCMO
Mardi, le 2 juin | 15h30 – 17h30
Salle : Rainbow
1. Un résumé de la présentation sur «l'Avenir de l’entreprise météo" tenue lors de la Conférence
Scientifique Publique Mondiale sur la Météorologie 2014 à Montréal sera livré.
2. Les prochaines étapes concernant l'avenir des programmes SCMO existants (Webinaires, Programme
de mentorat, Recrutement des grands utilisateurs, Relations avec les médias, etc.) seront discutées.
3. Discussion sur le recrutement de bénévoles de la SCMO.
4. Commentaires des participants quant à l'avenir de la SCMO seront recueillis.
Special Session on the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC)
Wednesday, June 3 | 12:00 – 13:30
Room: Harmony
The IOC is the competent UN body that deals with Ocean Science internationally under the auspices of the United
Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). The Assembly of the IOC meets June 18 to 25,
2015 in Paris, France. Trevor Swerdfager, ADM of Ecosystem and Oceans Science at DFO will be Canada’s Head of
Delegation. As at the last couple of CMOS Congresses, you are invited to a discussion about the current issues that
face IOC as well as Canada’s position on them as Canada’s delegation prepares for the meeting. Some issues that
will be raised include:
• The future of the IOC
• Strengthening WMO‐IOC cooperation, e.g. Joint Commission for Ocean and Marine Meterology
(JCOMM), Climate Services, IOC‐Blue Planet Cooperation
• Canadian input to the Global Ocean Science Report (GOSR)
The session will include a presentation about the current state of the IOC, followed by discussion.
Session spéciale sur la Commission Océanographique Intergouvernementale (COI)
Mardi, le 3 juin | 12h00 – 17h30
Salle : Harmony
La COI est l'organisation des Nations unies qui traite des sciences de la mer à l'échelle internationale sous les
auspices de l'Organisation des Nations Unies pour l'éducation, la science et la culture (UNESCO). L'assemblée de la
COI va se rencontrer le 18 au 25 juin 2015 à Paris, France. Trevor Swerdfager, le sous‐ministre adjoint des Sciences
de l’océan et des écosystèmes (SOE) du département de Pêches et Océans Canada, sera le chef de la délégation
du Canada. Tous comme aux derniers congrès de la SCMO, vous êtes invités à une discussion sur les enjeux actuels
de la CIO ainsi que la position du Canada envers ces enjeux lors de la préparation de la délégation du Canada pour
la réunion.
Certaines questions qui seront soulevées incluent :
• L’avenir de la COI
• Renforcement de la coopération OMM‐COI, ex. Commission conjointe sur l'océanographie et la
météorologie marine (J‐COMM)
• La contribution du Canada au rapport de la Commission Océan Mondial (GOSR)
La session comprendra une présentation sur l'état actuel de la COI, suivie d'une discussion.
36
Guidelines for Presenters
Poster Presentations Guidelines
• Posters will be displayed in the Grand Foyer and Ballroom B and C on the upper level of the Whistler
Conference Centre.
• Posters will be on display throughout the meeting, but poster presenters should be present at their
posters to answer questions during the main poster session scheduled Monday June 1st between
15:30‐17:00. A second, informal poster session is scheduled for Tuesday June 2nd between 15:30 –
17:00.
• The maximum poster size is 42 inches by 42 inches (105 cm x 105 cm). Poster presenters are
responsible for hanging and removing your own posters. Velcro fastener supports will be provided.
Please hang your poster on the assigned numbered board to allow grouping by theme.
• Posters should be up by 10:30 on Monday June 1st and removed by 13:00 on Thursday June 4th in
the afternoon. Posters not removed by this time will be discarded.
• Prizes will be awarded by CMOS for the best student poster in Oceanography, the best student poster
in Meteorology and best overall poster.
Oral Presentations Guidelines
Each oral presentation has been allotted 15 minutes, including 12 minutes for presenting and 3 minutes for
questions/comments. Some invited speakers have been allotted 30 minutes total and plenary speakers have been
allotted 45 minutes.
Uploading files onto the CMOS fileserver
To manage the oral presentations, CMOS has set up a file server specifically for the conference. The conference file
server is an OwnCloud DropBox clone managed by the University of British Columbia (UBC). All presentations must
be loaded onto this fileserver prior to the session. No presentations will be uploaded to computers in the session
rooms.
Presentation files must be uploaded onto the congress fileserver either two hours prior to your presentation using
on your own personal computer, or prior to 9:00 the morning of the presentation at the Registration area in the
Grand Foyer, where volunteers will help to upload the files from a USB stick. These computers will not be able to
load files from DVDs.
37
Uploading Presentations to the CMOS OwnCloud file server
1) You should have received an email from OwnCloud providing you with a userid and password 2) If you have not received such an email, please send a help request, with your name and abstract ID in the subject line, to: [email protected] 3) Armed with your userid and password, open a browser and go to the CMOS 2015 OwnCloud server https://roc.eos.ubc.ca:8443 4) Agree to the security exception 5) Enter the Username and Password you received via email 6) Click the "Log In" box
7) Your Login should fail, and you will be asked to reset your password 8) This has been done so that everyone is forced to change their password 9) Click on the"Reset it!" text to reset your password 10) This will trigger an email to be sent containing a link for reseting your password
11) After a few minutes an email should arrive from ownCloud ([email protected]) 12) Open the email and click on the link 13) If after a few minutes you do not receive and email, check your spam or junk folders 14) If no email arrives, please send a help request, with your name and abstract ID in the subject line, to: [email protected]
38
15) The link will re‐direct you to an OwnCloud password reset page 16) Type in a new password and click "Reset password"
17) You should now see your Home folder where you must save your presentation 18) Click on the Upload icon at the top to upload your presentation
19) Use the popup box to select the file you want to upload 20) Click "Open" to start uploading your presentation file(s)
39
21) You should now see your file(s) on the OwnCloud server 22) Check the file size(s) to make sure everything loaded correctly 23) At anytime, right up to the morning of your presentation, you can upload newer versions of your presentation by simply logging on to the OwnCloud server (using your userid and your new password) 24) You are done !! 25) The OwnCloud file server will make sure that your talk will be accessible to the computer assigned to your session 26) As a result, you MUST upload your presentation prior to your session. Do NOT show up at your session expecting to be able to load your presentation onto the session computer 27) To Logout, click on your username (the upper right hand corner) From the pull‐down menu, select "Log out"
Naming presentation files
All filenames and folders associated with each presentation must contain the 4‐digit abstract ID, which is part of
your owncloud user name.
File types
The following file types are acceptable for oral presentations:
• PowerPoint (.ppt, .pptx)
• Adobe Reader (.pdf)
• QuickTime
PowerPoint embeds image files directly into the file when you save them, while video files are not embedded. Only
a link is made to the video file. Copy the video clips you want to insert into the same folder as the PowerPoint file
before linking them into your presentation. This will eliminate the problem of PowerPoint losing the link to the file.
Be sure you upload both the video files and the powerpoint file to your ownCloud account. Video/audio can also
be played independently of Powerpoint using the VLC media player, which supports various formats (e.g. .wmv,
.mpg,.avi, .mov, etc.). Please prepare your files accordingly.
Computer and A/V Equipment
Using your own computer will not be possible. All meeting rooms will be equipped with a Windows 7 based PC
with MS Office 2010, QuickTime, VLC media player, Windows media play, and Adobe Acrobat Reader. Please
remember to verify proper performance of your presentation in advance, particularly if it includes audio, video, or
animation files. Internet access will be available during your presentation. Each session room will be equipped
with a screen, LCD projector, timer and laser pointer. Presentations will be automatically uploaded onto the
session computer by the CMOS file server.
40
Les lignes directrices du présentateur
Lignes directrices pour les présentations d’affiche
Les affiches seront exposées dans le Grand Foyer et la Salle de bal B et C sur le niveau supérieur du Centre
de conférence Whistler.
Les affiches seront exposées tout au long de la réunion, mais les présentateurs d'affiches devraient être
présents à leur affiche pour répondre aux questions au cours de la session principale prévue le lundi 1er
juin entre 15h30 et 17h 00. Une deuxième session informelle est prévue pour le mardi 2 juin entre 15h30
et 17h00.
La taille maximale de l'affiche est de 42 pouces par 42 pouces (105 cm x 105 cm). Les présentateurs
d'affiches sont responsables de suspendre et retirer leurs propres affiches. Des supports de velcro de
fixation seront fournis. S'il vous plaît accrocher votre affiche sur le tableau numéroté qui vous a été
assigné pour permettre le regroupement par thème.
Les affiches devraient être en place avant 10h30 lundi 1er juin et enlevé par 13h00 le jeudi 4 juin en
après‐midi. Les affiches non retirées à ce moment seront jetées.
Les prix seront décernés par la SCMO pour la meilleure affiche étudiante en océanographie, la meilleure
affiche étudiante en météorologie et la meilleure affiche globale.
Lignes directrices pour les présentations orales
Chaque présentation orale a été allouée 15 minutes, dont 12 minutes pour la présentation et 3 minutes pour les
questions et commentaires. Certains présentateurs invités ont été attribuées un total de 30 minutes.
Télécharger les fichiers sur le serveur de fichier de la SCMO
Pour gérer les présentations orales, la SCMO a mis en place un serveur de fichier spécifiquement pour la
conférence. Le serveur de fichier de conférence est un clone de OwnCloud DropBox géré par l'Université de la
Colombie‐Britannique (UBC). Toutes les présentations doivent être chargées sur ce serveur de fichiers avant la
session. Aucunes présentations ne seront téléchargées à partir d'ordinateurs dans les salles de session.
Les fichiers de présentation doivent être téléchargées sur le serveur de fichier de congrès soit deux heures avant
votre présentation à l'aide de votre propre ordinateur personnel, ou avant 9h00 le matin de la présentation à la
zone d'enregistrement dans le Grand Foyer, où les bénévoles aideront à télécharger les fichiers à partir d'une clé
USB. Ces ordinateurs ne seront pas en mesure de télécharger à partir d’un DVD.
41
Téléchargement de présentations au serveur de fichier SCMO OwnCloud
1) Vous devriez avoir reçu un courriel de OwnCloud vous fournissant un nom d'utilisateur et un mot de passe 2) Si vous n’avez pas reçu un tel courriel, s'il vous plaît envoyer une demande d'aide, avec votre nom et votre numéro d’identification du résumé dans la ligne d'objet, à: [email protected] 3) À l’aide de votre nom d'utilisateur et le mot de passe, ouvrez un navigateur et allez au serveur CMOS 2015 OwnCloud https://roc.eos.ubc.ca:8443 4) Acceptez l'exception de la sécurité 5) Entrez le nom d'utilisateur et le mot de passe que vous avez reçu par courriel 6) Cliquez sur le bouton « Login »
7) Votre connexion devrait échouer et vous sera demandé de réinitialiser votre mot de passe 8) Cela a été fait de sorte que tout le monde est obligé de changer leur mot de passe 9) Cliquez sur le texte « Reset it! » pour réinitialiser votre mot de passe 10) Cela déclenchera l’envoie d’un courriel contenant un lien pour réinitialiser votre mot de passe
11) Après quelques minutes un courriel devrait arriver de ownCloud ([email protected]) 12) Ouvrez le courriel et cliquez sur le lien 13) Si, après quelques minutes, vous ne recevez pas de courriel, vérifiez vos dossiers de spam ou pourriel. 14) Si aucun courriel arrive, s'il vous plaît envoyer une demande d'aide, avec votre nom et votre numéro d’identification du résumé dans la ligne d'objet, à: [email protected]
42
15) Le lien vous redirigera vers une page de réinitialisation de mot de passe OwnCloud 16) Entrez un nouveau mot de passe et cliquez sur « Reset password »
17) Vous devriez maintenant voir votre dossier d'accueil (Home) où vous devez enregistrer votre présentation 18) Cliquez sur l'icône de chargement au haut de la page afin de télécharger votre présentation
19) Utilisez la nouvelle fenêtre sur l’écran pour sélectionner le fichier que vous souhaitez télécharger 20) Cliquez sur « Open » pour démarrer le téléchargement de votre fichier de présentation
43
21) Vous devriez maintenant voir votre fichier sur le serveur OwnCloud 22) Vérifiez la taille du fichier pour vérifier que tout correctement téléchargé 23) À tout moment, jusqu'au matin de votre présentation, vous pouvez télécharger les nouvelles versions de votre présentation en vous connectant au serveur OwnCloud (en utilisant votre nom d'utilisateur et votre nouveau mot de passe) 24) C’est fait! 25) Le serveur de fichier OwnCloud assurera que votre présentation sera accessible sur l'ordinateur assigné pour votre présentation 26) Par conséquent, vous DEVEZ télécharger votre présentation avant votre session. NE VOUS PRÉSENTEZ PAS à votre session en espérant être capable de charger votre présentation sur l’ordinateur 27) Pour vous déconnecter, cliquez sur votre nom d'utilisateur (le coin supérieur droit). Dans le menu déroulant, sélectionnez « Logout »
Nommer les fichiers de présentation
Tous les noms de fichiers et dossiers associés à chaque présentation doivent contenir les 4 chiffres d’identification
du résumé, qui font partie de votre nom d'utilisateur OwnCloud.
Types de fichier
Les types de fichiers suivants sont acceptés pour les présentations orales:
PowerPoint (.ppt, .pptx)
Adobe Reader (.pdf)
QuickTime
PowerPoint intègre les fichiers d'image directement dans le document lorsque vous les enregistrez, tandis que les
fichiers vidéo ne sont pas intégrés. Seul un lien est établi avec le fichier vidéo. Copiez les vidéos que vous voulez
insérer dans le même dossier que le fichier PowerPoint avant de les relier dans votre présentation. Cela éliminera
le problème de PowerPoint qui perd le lien vers le fichier. Assurez‐vous de télécharger à la fois les fichiers vidéo et
le fichier PowerPoint à votre compte OwnCloud. Vidéo / audio peut également être joué indépendamment de
Powerpoint en utilisant le lecteur VLC media, qui supporte divers formats (par exemple, .wmv, .mpg, .avi, .mov,
etc.). S'il vous plaît préparer vos fichiers en conséquence.
Ordinateur et équipement A/V
L’utilisation de votre propre ordinateur ne sera pas possible. Toutes les salles de réunion seront équipées d'un PC
équipé de Windows 7 avec MS Office 2010, QuickTime, VLC media player, Windows media play, et Adobe Acrobat
Reader. S'il vous plaît vérifier la bonne performance de votre présentation à l'avance, en particulier si elle inclut de
l'audio, de la vidéo ou des fichiers d'animation. L'accès à Internet sera disponible lors de votre présentation.
Chaque salle de présentation sera équipée d'un écran, un projecteur LCD, un minuteur et un pointeur laser. Les
présentations seront automatiquement téléchargées sur l'ordinateur de session par le serveur de fichier de la
SCMO.
Time / HeuresSunday !
DimancheMonday!Lundi
Tuesday!Mardi
Wednesday!Mercredi
Thursday!Jeudi
0800 - 0830 Opening Remarks!Cérémonie dèouverture
0830 - 0900
Meetings & Workshops!!
Réunions & ateliers
Plenaries 1&2!!Plénières 1&2
Plenaries 3&4!!Plénières 3&4
Plenaries 5&6!!Plénières 5&6
Plenaries 7&8!!Plénières 7&8
0900 - 0930
0930 - 1000
1000 - 1030 Coffee Break / Pause santé
1030 - 1100
Parallel Sessions! / Sessions parallèles1100 - 1130
1130 - 1200
1200 - 1230Lunch!!Dîner
Lunch on-site!!Dîner sur place
Patterson - Parsons Luncheon!!
Dîner!Patterson - Parsons
Lunch on-site!!Dîner sur place
1230 - 1300
1300 - 1330
1330 - 1400
Meetings & Workshops!!
Réunions & ateliers
Parallel Sessions! / Sessions parallèles1400 - 1430
1430 - 1500
1500 - 1530 Coffee Break / Pause santé
1530 - 1600
Poster Session / Session d’affiches
Parallel Sessions!!Sessions parallèles
1600 - 1630
1630 - 1700
1700 - 1730
1730 - 1800 CMOS Annual Meeting!!
Assemblée générale annuelle SCMO
1800 - 1830
Ice Breaker!!Soirée d’ouverture
1830 - 1900
1900 - 1930
Public Lecture!!Soirée publique
CMOS Banquet!!Banquet SCMO
1930 - 2000
2000 - 2030
Student Night!!Soirée étudiante
2030 - 2100
2100 - 2130
2130 - 2200
Week at a Glance / La semaine en un coup d’oeil
45
Sunday Meetings and Workshops Conférences et ateliers du dimanche
TimeHeures
0800-08300830-09000900-09300930-10001000-10301030-11001100-11301130-12001200-12301230-1300
1300-13301330-14001400-14301430-15001500-15301530-16001600-16301630-17001700-17301730-18001800-18301830-19001900-19301930-20002000-20302030-21002100-21302130-2200
SundayDimanche
Scientific CommitteeComité scientifique
(Harmony A)
CMOS CouncilConseil SCMO
(Harmony A)
Communicating Uncertainty Workshop
Atelier sur la communication des incertitudes aux utilisateurs de prévisions météorologiques
(Garibaldi)
CNC-SCOR
(Wedgemount)
Publications CommitteeComité de publication
(Harmony B)
Icebreaker
Soirée d’ouverture
46
Time Thursday TimeHeure Jeudi Heure
0800-0830 0800-08300830-0900 0830-09000900-0930 0900-09300930-1000 0930-10001000-1030 1000-10301030-1100 1030-11001100-1130 1100-11301130-1200 1130-12001200-1230 1200-12301230-1300 1230-13001300-1330 1300-13301330-1400 1330-14001400-1430 1400-14301430-1500 1430-15001500-1530 1500-15301530-1600 1530-16001600-1630 1600-16301630-1700 1630-17001700-1730 1700-17301730-1800 1730-18001800-1830 1800-18301830-1900 1830-19001900-1930 1900-19301930-2000 1930-20002000-2030 2000-20302030-2100 2030-21002100-2130 2100-21302130-2200 2130-22002200-2230 2200-22302230-2300 2230-2300
Public Lecture
Conférence publique
(Rainbow) Banquet
(Sea to Sky Ballroom A)
Student NightNuit pour les Étudiants
NEMO Ocean
Modeling
(Black Tusk)
AMS Modeling Workshop
(Black Tusk)
CMOS Special Session
(Rainbow)
NSERC Info Session
(Harmony)
AMS Executives
(Black Tusk)
CMOS AGM
SCMO AGA
(Rainbow)
Educators DayJournée des enseignants
(Black Tusk) Student Lunch & Learn
(Harmony)
Patterson‐Parsons Luncheon
Dîner Patterson‐Parsons
(Sea to Sky Ballroom A)
Centre Executives
Committee
(Black Tusk)
IOC Session
(Harmony)
Monday Tuesday WednesdayLundi Mardi Mercredi
Meetings, Workshops, Special Sessions
Conférences, ateliers, sessions spéciales
47
Sessio
n Sch
edule | H
oraire
du se
ssions
Time Rainbow Harmony Fitzsimmons Garibaldi A Garibaldi B Wedgemount Spearhead
0800-0830
0830-0900
0900-0930
0930-1000
1000-1030
1030-1100
1100-1130
1130-1200
1200-1230
1230-1300
1300-1330
1330-1400
1400-1430
1430-1500
1500-1530
1530-1600
1600-1630
1630-1700
Opening Ceremony (Sea to Sky Ballroom A)
Plenaries (Sea to Sky Ballroom A)Battisti and Barnes
Coffee Break (Grand Foyer / Sea to Sky Ballroom B&C)
Polar Coupled Climate Modeling and Weather
Prediction
Polar/Lower-Latitude Connections
The Changing Arctic Atmosphere
Climate Change and Extreme Events II
Innovation through Integration: Collaborative Science, Policy,
and Environmental Management at High
Latitudes
Physical Oceanography II
Mechanisms of Polar Change and Variability
Physical Oceanography I
Numerical Weather Prediction I
Education, Outreach and General Interdisciplinary
StudiesObservations I
Climate Change and Extreme Events I
Numerical Weather Prediction II
Lunch on-site (Grand Foyer)
Coffee Break (Grand Foyer / Sea to Sky Ballroom B&C)
Poster Session
Heures Rainbow Harmony Fitzsimmons Garibaldi A Garibaldi B Wedgemount Spearhead
0800-0830
0830-0900
0900-0930
0930-1000
1000-1030
1030-1100
1100-1130
1130-1200
1200-1230
1230-1300
1300-1330
1330-1400
1400-1430
1430-1500
1500-1530
1530-1600
1600-1630
1630-1700
Éducation, sensibilisation et travaux
interdisciplinaires généraux
Déjeuner sur place (Grand Foyer)
Relations entre les pôles et les latitudes
inférieures
L'atmosphère arctique en évolution
Changement climatique et événements
extrèmes-Partie 2
L’innovation fondée sur l’intégration : science,
politique et gestion environnementale
collaboratives dans les hautes latitudes
Océanographie physique-Partie 2
Prévision numérique du temps-Partie 2
Modélisation couplée du climat et de la prévision
météorologique aux pôles
Observations-Partie 1 Changement climatique
et événements extrèmes-Partie 1
Mécanismes sous-tendant la variabilité et les changements aux
pôles
Océanographie physique-Partie 1
Prévision numérique du temps-Partie 1
Pause santé (Grand Foyer / Sea to Sky Ballroom B&C)
Affiches
Cérémonie d'ouverture (Sea to Sky Ballroom A)
Plénieres (Sea to Sky Ballroom A)Battisti and Barnes
Pause santé (Grand Foyer / Sea to Sky Ballroom B&C)
June 1
1 juin
48
Time Rainbow Harmony Fitzsimmons Garibaldi A Garibaldi B Wedgemount Spearhead
0830-0900
0900-0930
0930-1000
1000-1030
1030-1100
1100-1130
1130-1200
1200-1230
1230-1300
1300-1330
1330-1400
1400-1430
1430-1500
1500-1530
1530-1600
1600-1630
1630-1700
Plenaries (Sea to Sky Ballroom A)Timmermans and Holland
Coffee Break (Grand Foyer / Sea to Sky Ballroom B&C)
Ocean-atmosphere interactions and sea ice
I
Meteorology, Hydrology and Renewable Energy
From Carbon Emissions to Climate Change
Hydro-climatic Variability, Change and
Extremes I: Climatic Drivers
Collaboration in development,
application and analysis of ocean forecasting
models I
Coordination of Ocean Science in Canada - An
Update and Way Forward
Acoustics in Oceanography and marine sciences I
Patterson-Parsons Luncheon (Sea to Sky Ballroom A)
Ocean-atmosphere interactions and sea ice
II
Coupled Environmental Prediction: From hours
to seasons.
Collaboration in development,
application and analysis of ocean forecasting
models II"
Synoptic and Mesoscale Dynamics
Acoustics in Oceanography and marine sciences II
Detection and attribution
Hydro-climatic Variability, Change and Extremes II: Modelling
Snow and Land Surface Processes
Poster Session continued / social time
Coffee Break (Grand Foyer / Sea to Sky Ballroom B&C)
Heures Rainbow Harmony Fitzsimmons Garibaldi A Garibaldi B Wedgemount Spearhead
0830-0900
0900-0930
0930-1000
1000-1030
1030-1100
1100-1130
1130-1200
1200-1230
1230-1300
1300-1330
1330-1400
1400-1430
1430-1500
1500-1530
1530-1600
1600-1630
1630-1700
Plénieres (Sea to Sky Ballroom A)Timmermans and Holland
Pause santé (Grand Foyer / Sea to Sky Ballroom B&C)
Interactions océan-atmosphère et glace de
mer-Partie 1
Météorologie, hydrologie et énergie
renouvelable
Des émissions de carbone aux changements climatiques
Variabilité, évolution et extrêmes
hydroclimatiques -Partie 1 : facteurs climatiques
Collaboration dans le développement,
l’application et l’analyse des modèles de
prévision océanique - 1
Coordination des sciences de la mer au Canada : mise
à jour et avenir
L’acoustique en océanographie et en
sciences de la mer : des tropiques aux pôles- 1
Déjeuner Patterson-Parsons (Sea to Sky Ballroom A)
Interactions océan-atmosphère et glace de
mer-Partie 2
Prévision environnementale
couplée: de quelques heures à saisons
Détection et causes des changements
climatiques dans les hautes latitudes
Variabilité, évolution et extrêmes hydroclimatiques - 2 : modélisation de la neige et des processus de surface
Collaboration dans le développement,
l’application et l’analyse des modèles de
prévision océanique - 2
Dynamique synoptique et de mésoéchelle
L’acoustique en océanographie et en
sciences de la mer : des tropiques aux pôles - 2
Pause santé (Grand Foyer / Sea to Sky Ballroom B&C)
La session d'affiches se prolonges / Temps de rencontres
June 2
2 juin
49
Time Rainbow Harmony Fitzsimmons Garibaldi A Garibaldi B Wedgemount Spearhead
0830-0900
0900-0930
0930-1000
1000-1030
1030-1100
1100-1130
1130-1200
1200-1230
1230-1300
1300-1330
1330-1400
1400-1430
1430-1500
1500-1530
1530-1600
1600-1630
1630-1700
Polar Clouds, Precipitation, and
Aerosols
Atmosphere, Ocean, and Climate Dynamics
Two Ways of Knowing – Scientists and Inuit Knowledge Holders
Atmospheric Interfaces in the Arctic
Climate Variability and Predictability III
Plenaries (Sea to Sky Ballroom A)Fissel and Steiner
Coffee Break (Grand Foyer / Sea to Sky Ballroom B&C)
High-resolution sea ice-ocean modeling
Data Assimilation and Impact of Observations
Climate Variability and Predictability I
Coastal Oceanography and Inland Waters in a
Changing Climate IAtmospheric Physics
Ocean Biogeochemistry from Tropics to Poles –
Synthesizing Observations and Model
Results
Beaufort Sea Ocean-Ice-Atmosphere Dynamics
State of the Cryosphere Climate Variability and
Predictability IIAtmospheric Chemistry
and Air Quality
Land-atmosphere exchange of trace
gases
Coffee Break (Grand Foyer / Sea to Sky Ballroom B&C)
Lunch on-site (Grand Foyer)
The Labrador Sea as a Vital element of the climate system II
Coastal Oceanography and Inland Waters in a Changing Climate III
The Labrador Sea as a Vital element of the
climate system I
Coastal Oceanography and Inland Waters in a
Changing Climate II
Heures Rainbow Harmony Fitzsimmons Garibaldi A Garibaldi B Wedgemount Spearhead
0830-0900
0900-0930
0930-1000
1000-1030
1030-1100
1100-1130
1130-1200
1200-1230
1230-1300
1300-1330
1330-1400
1400-1430
1430-1500
1500-1530
1530-1600
1600-1630
1630-1700
Plénieres (Sea to Sky Ballroom A)Fissel and Steiner
Pause santé (Grand Foyer / Sea to Sky Ballroom B&C)
Modélisation glace de mer-océan à haute
résolution
Assimilation des données et incidence
des observations
Variabilité et prévisibilité du climat-Partie 1
Océanographie côtière et eaux intérieures dans
un climat changeant-Partie 1
Physique atmosphérique
Biogéochimie de l’océan, des tropiques aux pôles - synthèse
des observations et des résultats de modèles
Déjeuner sur place (Grand Foyer)
Dynamique océan-glace-atmosphère dans la mer
de BeaufortÉtat de la cryosphère
Variabilité et prévisibilité du climat-Partie 2
Océanographie côtière et eaux intérieures dans
un climat changeant-Partie 3
La mer du Labrador, un élément capital du
système climatique-Partie 1
Océanographie côtière et eaux intérieures dans
un climat changeant-Partie 2
Chimie atmosphérique et qualité de l’air
Échange sol-atmosphère de gaz
traces
Pause santé (Grand Foyer / Sea to Sky Ballroom B&C)
Nuages, précipitation et aérosols polaires
Dynamique de l’atmosphère, des
océans et du climat
GIS ARCTIQUE: Deux perspectives du savoir : le savoir scientifique et
le savoir autochtone
Interfaces atmosphèriques dans
l'Arctique
Variabilité et prévisibilité du climat-Partie 3
La mer du Labrador, un élément capital du
système climatique-Partie 2
June 3
3 juin
50
Time Rainbow Harmony Fitzsimmons Garibaldi A Garibaldi B Wedgemount Spearhead
0830-0900
0900-0930
0930-1000
1000-1030
1030-1100
1100-1130
1130-1200
Plenaries (Sea to Sky Ballroom A)Clarke and McLinden
Coffee Break (Grand Foyer / Sea to Sky Ballroom B&C)
High latitude glacier and ice sheet interaction with
the atmosphere and ocean
ObservationsNew Approaches to Ocean Observing
Mixing in the Open and Coastal Oceans
Operational Forecasting
Heures Rainbow Harmony Fitzsimmons Garibaldi A Garibaldi B Wedgemount Spearhead
0830-0900
0900-0930
0930-1000
1000-1030
1030-1100
1100-1130
1130-1200
Plénieres (Sea to Sky Ballroom A)Clarke and McLinden
Pause santé (Grand Foyer / Sea to Sky Ballroom B&C)
Observations-Partie 2 Nouvelles méthodes
d’observation de l’océan Mélange en pleine mer
et près des côtes
Interaction des glaciers et des nappes glaciaires
des hautes latitudes avec l’atmosphère et
l’océan
Prévision opérationnelle
June 4
Le 4 juin
Presentations Schedule | Horaire de presentations
1030-1045
1045-1100
1100-1115
1115-1130
1130-1145
1145-1200
Andrew Roberts Sea Ice State in Version 1 of the
Regional Arctic System Model
Michael Sigmond Seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice in a dynamical forecast system
Yi Jin Numerical Modeling of Summer Arctic Boundary Layer during the
Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS)
John Cassano Simulation of Arctic climate with
the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM): Sensitivity to
atmospheric processes
Keith Hines ACCIMA: Regional Coupled
Modeling of Antarctica for Sea Level Rise Studies
Pranab Deb Validation of near-surface
variables simulated by Polar WRF over West Antarctica
Monday Morning - June 1 / Lundi matin - 1 juin
Education, Outreach and General Inter-disciplinary
Éducation, sensibilisation et travaux interdisciplinaires généraux
Harmony Fitzsimmons Garibaldi A
Garibaldi BPolar Coupled Climate Modeling
and Weather Prediction Modélisation couplée du climat et de la prévision météorologique
aux pôles
Observations IObservations-Partie 1
Spearhead
Climate Change & Extreme Events I
Changement climatique et événements extrèmes-Partie 1
Mechanisms of Polar Change & Variability / Mécanismes sous-
tendant la variabilité et les changements aux pôles
Physical Oceanography I Océanographie physique-Partie 1
Numerical Weather Prediction I Prévision numérique du temps-
Partie 1
Rainbow Wedgemount
David MikolajczykThe 2014-15 UW-Madison AWS
Network Field Season: A Campaign to Divide and Conquer
Andrew LeungFog Occurrence in Hudson Bay
Region
Stephen BergVariable Precipitation Differences
on Cypress Mountain during SNOW-V10
Wil MarshOptical Rain Gauge - An
Alternative to Traditional Rain Gauges
Qinghua DingTemperature change on the
Antarctic Peninsula linked to the tropical Pacific
Chad GoergensSeasonal Antarctic station-based
pressure reconstruction evaluation during the 20th century
Till WagnerHow Climate Model Complexity
Influences Sea Ice Stability
Keith HinesReal-time Numerical Weather Forecasts for Arctic Research
Flights with Polar WRF
Derek van der KampSpatial and temporal variability of
fuel moisture across a heterogenous landscape
Herb WinstonAn Assessment of the Global
Lightning Dataset (GLD360) over Canada
Trevor MurdockDownscaling Extremes - a set of climate change projections for
Canada
Carlos Gaitan OspinaOn the use of statistical
downscaling time-invariant transfer functions and their effect on different historical and future
metrics. Case study: daily maximum temperature in Montreal,
Eva MekisObserved trends in severe
weather conditions based on humidex, wind chill and heavy
rainfall events in Canada for 1953
Vanessa FoordClimate Change Impacts to
Natural Disturbances in Northern British Columbia
David HuardThe Delicate Undertaking of
Making Climate Science Relevant to Decision-Making
Cecilia Peralta-FerrizInter-annual variability of Arctic
mixed layer properties from 1979 to 2012
Bunu SharmaThe changing contribution of Snow
to Hudson Bay River Discharge.
Yi SuiCirculation, dispersion, and
hydrodynamic connectivity over the Scotian Shelf, a numerical
investigation using a nested-grid ocean circulation model
Rich PawlowiczSalinity anomalies in coastal waters
Denis LefaivreDynamics of the Position of the
Transition from Freshwater to Salt Water in the St. Lawrence River
Cedric ChavanneDiagnosing the upper ocean 3D circulation from high-resolution
observations at a submesoscale cold filament in the Lower St.
Lawrence Estuary
Louis-Philippe NadeauInstability and mixing of zonal jets
along an idealized continental shelf break.
Andrew OrrAssessment of numerical weather
prediction for the Antarctic Peninsula using the UK Met Office
Unified Model and AMPS
Jeff LundgrenPredicting local climate changes
due to reservoir impoundment using WRF
Ron McTaggart-CowanUpcoming changes to the Canadian
Global Deterministic Prediction System
Simon HortonAvalanche forecasting with high
resolution NWP data
Sylvie LeroyerAn Integrated Urban High-
Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction System dedicated to the
2015 Pan-American Games in Toronto
Wendy Schreiber-AbshireCOMET’s 25 Years of Education and Training: Where We’ve Been
and Where We’re Going
Adam MonahanEffects of Spatial and Temporal Averaging on Surface Irradiance
Rick FleetwoodCoCoRaHS Canada Update
Roland StullProposal to Eliminate DiffEQ as Requirement for a Bachelors in
Atmospheric Science
Andrew LeungAssessing the Impacts on Aviation
by Analyzing Historical Surface Wind Patterns in Northern Quebec
and Labrador Communities
1330-1345
1345-1400
1400-1415
1415-1430
1430-1445
1445-1500
Numerical Weather Prediction IIPrévision numérique du temps-Partie 2
The Changing Arctic AtmosphereL'atmosphère arctique en évolution
Climate Change and Extreme Events IIChangement climatique et événements
extrèmes-Partie 2
Innovation through Integration: Collaborative Science, Policy, and
Environmental Management at High Latitudes
L’innovation fondée sur l’intégration : science, politique et gestion
environnementale collaboratives dans les hautes latitudes
Physical Oceanography IIOcéanographie physique-Partie 2
Rainbow Harmony Fitzsimmons Garibaldi A Garibaldi B
Polar/Lower-Latitude ConnectionsRelations entre les pôles et les latitudes
inférieures
Monday Afternoon - June 1 / Lundi après-midi - 1 juin
Ed BlockleySeamless coupled forecasting across all time scales at the Met
Office, UK: ocean-ice forecasting, seasonal prediction, climate projections and Earth system
modelling.
Aaron DonohoeThe interannual variability of the
Arctic energy budget
Emmanuel D. PoanVariability and change in Storm
Track characteristics over Canada from Regional Climate Model
Perspective
Sina AbadzadesahraeiQuantifying the water budget of Coles Lake, Northeastern British
Columbia Nicolas GrisouardDamping of Geostrophic Motions
by Oceanic Internal Waves, Critically Reflecting off the Sea
Surface.
Hanneke LuijtingForecasting Polar Lows with an
on-demand EPS system
Ryan FogtThe Roles of the PDO and ENSO
on Regional Antarctic Warming during Austral Spring, 1979-2012
Dominique PaquinEvaluation of maximum
precipitation changes and precipitable water from Regional Climate Models over Canadian
watersheds
Wedgemount
Kelly McCuskerExploring the link between human-induced Arctic sea ice loss and
cold Eurasian winters
Catrin MillsThe Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Atmospheric
Responses to Changing Arctic Ice Cover in Present-Day CCSM4
Michael SigmondPacific trade wind intensification
and the recent prevalence of unusually cold North American
winters
Qinghua DingTropical forcing of the recent rapid
Arctic warming in northeastern Canada and Greenland
Banafsheh AfsharHigh Resolution NWP for the
Canadian Arctic
Sophie TranTrace gas measurements at two
Arctic sites using infrared emission spectroscopy: Filling the polar night
knowledge gap
Patrick SheeseSeasonal differences in Arctic N2O throughout the stratosphere to the lower thermosphere and its effect
on stratospheric NO and O3
Knut von SalzenSimulations of Arctic Aerosols and
Climate with CanAM
Line BourdagesA Pan-Arctic view of inversion
formation and maintenance processes
Kirien WhanThe impact of atmospheric blocking
on extreme winter minimum temperatures in North America
Rick FleetwoodLong Term Climate Records Generator and Data Base for
Canada
Jennifer SpinneyThe practice of producing and
consuming flood warning information: an ethnographic
exploration of working and living the weather
Amanda LynchExtremes, Remoteness and
Adaptation in the Arctic
Paul LeBlondA proposal for international
scientific collaboration at the North Pole
Gabriela IbarguchiThe Arctic Observing Summit 2013, 2014, 2016: Progress
Towards an Integrated, Multipurpose, International Arctic
Observing System
Francis PoulinA study of a surface trapped elliptical anticyclone at finite
Rossby number
Renske GelderloosA simple model of ocean dynamics
in Nares Strait
David StraubMeridional propagation of
geostrophic jets in ocean circulation models
William CrawfordDecadal Trends of Oxygen in the
Northeast Pacific Ocean
Syed Zahid HusainImproving Land-Surface
Parameterization with the Multi-Budget Soil, Vegetation, and
Snow (SVS) Scheme
Iain RussellThe Weather Network’s Hourly NWP Precipitation Nowcasting
Model
Ron ChapmanDetermining forecast skill in a
numerical weather model: Case study – 1 year of daily WRF
NWP results compared against observation data from the Wood Buffalo Environmental Agency Air
monitoring network.
Aranildo LimaPostprocessing of Numerical
Weather Forecasts Using Online Sequential Extreme Learning
Machines
Nacera CherguiLes activites de post-traitement dans la section des elements du temps du Centre Meteorologique
Canadien (CMC).
1030-1045
1045-1100
1100-1115
1115-1130
1130-1145
1145-1200
Fitzsimmons Garibaldi A Garibaldi B Wedgemount
Invited session with panelists discussing ocean science
coordination in Canada.
The panelists will include: • David Fissel, Chairman and
Senior Scientist, ASL Environmental Science
• Sara Iverson, Scientific Director, Ocean Tracking Network
• Kate Moran, President and Chief Executive Officer, Ocean
Networks Canada • Douglas Wallace, Scientific
Director, MEOPAR (Marine Environmental Observations Predictions and Response)
• Carmel Lowe, Regional Director Science – Pacific Region,
Department of Fisheries and Oceans
KatarzynaHow much would five trillion tonnes of carbon warm the
climate?
Wayne EvansMethane Leaks from Canadian and American Gas Fields and
Impacts on the UNFCCC
Chris DeBeerRecent Earth system change in the interior of western Canada – recent results from the Changing
Cold Regions Network
Aseem SharmaElevational dependence of climate
variability and trends in British Columbia’s Cariboo Mountains,
1950-2010
Spearhead
Ocean-atmosphere interactions and sea ice I
Interactions océan-atmosphère et glace de mer-Partie 1
Meteorology, Hydrology and Renewable Energy
Météorologie, hydrologie et énergie renouvelable
From Carbon Emissions to Climate Change
Des émissions de carbone aux changements climatiques
Hydro-climatic Variability, Change and Extremes I: Climatic Drivers
Variabilité, évolution et extrêmes hydroclimatiques -Partie 1 : facteurs
climatiques
Collaboration in development, application and analysis of ocean forecasting models I
Collaboration dans le développement, l’application et l’analyse des modèles de
prévision océanique - 1
Coordination of Ocean Science in CanadaCoordination des sciences de la mer au
Canada : mise à jour et avenir
Acoustics in Oceanography and marine sciences: from tropics to poles
L’acoustique en océanographie et en sciences de la mer : des tropiques aux
pôles- 1
Rainbow Harmony
Tuesday Morning - June 2 / Mardi matin - 2 juin
Jim ThomsonSea State and Boundary Layer Physics of the Emerging Arctic
Ocean
Johannes GemmrichWind waves in arctic seas
Mathieu PlanteObservation-based large scale
material properties of landfast sea ice
Christian HaasMapping thin landfast ice in the
Canadian Arctic
Mathilde JutrasThermodynamics of snow-ice
formation on sea ice
Vivek AroraConstraining the strength of the
terrestrial CO2 fertilization effect in Earth system models
Martin LeducExtending the TCRE to regional
climate changes
Ines Dana EhlertThe effect of ocean mixing on heat and carbon fluxes and the
linearity between global warming and cumulative CO2 emissions
Kirsten ZickfeldExploring the proportional
relationship between global warming and cumulative CO2
emissions for negative emission scenarios
Amy SolomonValidating processes that impact
sea-ice melt-back and freeze-up in coupled limited area model
simulations of the marginal ice zone
Christian ReutenLikelihood of Microclimate
Changes Caused by a Large Hydro Power Project: Application
of Bayesian Two-Sample Comparison to Site C
Joseph BaileyPast and potential relationships between wind speed and runoff
behaviour. Implications for renewable planning development
in British Columbia.
Wolf ReadThe Dose-Response of the Power
Distribution Grid to Windstorms that Affect Southwest British
Columbia, Canada
Jeff DainesPresent and Future Wind Energy Resources in Western Canada.
Peter TaylorPotential impacts of wind farms in Lake Erie: Some preliminary 1-D
modelling using COHERENS
Yanping LiThe June 2013 Alberta
Catastrophic Flooding: Water vapor transport analysis by WRF
simulation
Charles CurryDoes increased resolution alone add value in RCM simulations of extreme climate events? A multi-scale study over Western Canada
Waqar YounasImproving the Representation of Snow Processes in CLASS for
Western Canadian regions
Arelia WernerTrends in Hydrological Extremes as Modelled Using Two Gridded-
Climatological Datasets
Jean-Francois LemieuxThe CONCEPTS Global Ice-
Ocean Prediction System
Youyu LuCirculation, meso-scale eddies
and tides simulated with the high-resolution ocean models based
on NEMO
Fatemeh CheginiA high-resolution baroclinic model of ocean circulation off southwest
of Nova Scotia
Susan AllenEvaluation of Physics and
Numerics of a Real-time Model of the Salish Sea
Charles HannahBaroclinic circulation along the
northern coast of British Columbia
C. Harold RitchieA relocatable coupled
atmosphere-ocean prediction system
Harald YurkThe Certainties and Uncertainties when assessing noise impact on
marine mammals
Tetjana RossSurveying right whale habitats
using glider-mounted sonar
David BarclayThree-dimensional noise modeling in shallow water
environments
Matthew HatcherAmbient noise from turbidity
currents in Howe Sound
Kanachi AngadiThe spectrum levels of ambient
noise sources in Folger Passage.
Jinshan XuAn study of underwater sound
propagation in Barrow Strait using the CONCEPTS GIOPS ocean
prediction system
1330-1345
1345-1400
1400-1415
1415-1430
1430-1445
1445-1500
SpearheadCollaboration in development,
application and analysis of ocean forecasting models II
Collaboration dans le développement, l’application et l’analyse des modèles de
prévision océanique - 2
Synoptic and Mesoscale DynamicsDynamique synoptique et de
mésoéchelle
Acoustics in Oceanography and marine sciences: from tropics to poles II
L’acoustique en océanographie et en sciences de la mer : des tropiques aux
pôles - 2
Garibaldi B WedgemountRainbow Harmony Fitzsimmons Garibaldi A
Ocean-atmosphere interactions and sea ice II
Interactions océan-atmosphère et glace de mer-Partie 2
Coupled Environmental Prediction: From hours to seasons
Prévision environnementale couplée: de quelques heures à saisons
Detection and Attribution of High Latitude Climate Change
Détection et causes des changements climatiques dans les hautes latitudes
Hydro-climatic Variability, Change and Extremes II: Modelling Snow and Land
Surface ProcessesVariabilité, évolution et extrêmes
hydroclimatiques - 2 : modélisation de la neige et des processus de surface
Tuesday Afternoon - June 2 / Mardi après-midi - 2 juin
Rhiannon DaviesModeling the atmospheric
boundary-layer of the marginal ice zone: an ACCACIA case
study.
Ed BlockleyUK Environmental Prediction -
integration and evaluation at the convective scale
Patricia DeRepentignyFinding the source regions of sea
ice melting in the marginal ice zone: a Lagrangian approach
Xiaojun YuanArctic Sea Ice Seasonal
Prediction by a Linear Markov Model
Stephen HowellMulti-year ice replenishment in
the Canadian Arctic Archipelago: 1997-2013
Seung-KiDetection and attribution of
recent Arctic sea-ice melting patterns
Bennit MuellerApplication of the optimal
fingerprinting method to detection and attribution of Arctic sea ice
change
Marie-Eve GagneComparison of observed and simulated sea ice extent in the
Arctic and Antarctic prior to 1979
David GreenbergThe pathways of long period and
steady state barotropic flows through the Arctic Archipelago.
Wieslaw MaslowskiAir-Sea Interaction under a
Diminishing Sea ice Cover in the Regional Arctic System Model
(RASM)
Will PerrieDecadal variations of the Arctic water temperature and salinity
simulated by NEMO
C. Harold RitchieOverview of an integrated marine
Arctic prediction system for METAREAs
Neil BartonInsights in low-level polar temperature biases from
atmospheric – sea ice coupling in the Navy’s Global Coupled
Modeling System
Shouping WangRegional Simulations of Summer
Arctic Boundary Layers
Keith HinesThe Year of Polar Prediction
(2017-19)
Melanie RochouxAnalysis of the subgrid-scale
variability in a land surface/atmosphere coupled
system
Francis ZwiersDetection, Attribution and
Extreme Climate and Weather Events
Nathan GillettObservationally-constrained
climate projections beyond the near term
William HsiehUsing artificial neural networks to
emulate the VIC hydrological model: Application to streamflow
and snow water equivalent projections
Yonas DibikePotential Impacts of Projected Climate on Water Availability in
the Western Canadian River Basins
Siraj ul IslamAssessing climate change
impacts on the snowpacks and water availability of the Fraser River Basin, British Columbia
Craig SmithIntercomparison of snow depth
and snow water equivalent measurements during WMO
SPICE
Felix OuelletSpatialization of the SNOWPACK
snow model in the Canadian Arctic for Peary caribou winter grazing conditions assessment
Jinshan XuValidation and inter-comparison against observations of GODAE Ocean View Ocean Prediction Systems for the Northwestern
Atlantic
Len ZedelComparison between Doppler
sonar observations from a seismic survey ship and ocean circulation analysis results from
the CONCEPTS Global Ice Ocean Prediction System over
the Grand Banks
Doug LatornellAutomation Framework for a
Regional Ocean Forecast Model
Youyu LuDiscussion on development,
validation and application of high-resolution regional ocean models
Youyu LuDiscussion on development, validation and application of
nearshore ocean models
John GyakumAn analysis of extreme
precipitation events in continental and coastal regions of North
America: The relative roles of synoptic-scale triggers versus
stratification
Greg WilsonA New Statistical Method for
Acoustic Backscatter Amplitude Inversion
Jiangnan LiThe Dissipation Structure of
Extratropical Cyclones
Ron StewartThe June 2013 Alberta
Catastrophic Flooding Event
Ali AsaadiThe importance of African
easterly wave critical layer in developing tropical storms
Georgina PaullSensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Intensifi cation to Axisymmetric
Heat Sources
K MenelaouSome aspects of the problem of secondary eyewall formation in
idealized three-dimensional nonlinear simulations
Akash SastriZooplankton biomass estimates from acoustic backscatter in the
Salish Sea, British Columbia, Canada
Richard DeweyFour Co-located Doppler
Systems for Monitoring the Coastal Bottom Boundary Layer
Len ZedelObserving fish behavior using a
bottom mounted Doppler velocity profiler at a proposed in-stream tidal site: Grand Passage Nova
Scotia
1030-1045
1045-1100
1100-1115
1115-1130
1130-1145
1145-1200
Coastal Oceanography and Inland Waters in a Changing Climate I
Océanographie côtière et eaux intérieures dans un climat changeant-Partie 1
Atmospheric PhysicsPhysique atmosphérique
Ocean Biogeochemistry from Tropics to Poles – Synthesizing Observations and
Model ResultsBiogéochimie de l’océan, des tropiques aux pôles - synthèse des observations et
des résultats de modèles
Rainbow Harmony Fitzsimmons Garibaldi B Wedgemount Spearhead
High-resolution sea ice-ocean modelingModélisation glace de mer-océan à haute
résolution
Data Assimilation and Impact of Observations
Assimilation des données et incidence des observations
Climate Variability and Predictability IVariabilité et prévisibilité du climat-Partie
1
Wednesday Morning - June 3 / Mercredi matin - 3 juin
E. Joseph MetzgerIce validation of the U.S. Navy’s
Global Ocean Forecast System 3.1
Axel SchweigerAccuracy of short term Sea Ice Drift
Forecasts using a coupled Ice-Ocean Model
Clark PennellyEffect of grid resolution on ocean simulations in the sub-polar North Atlantic and Canadian Arctic using
NEMO and AGRIF
Franco MolteniTropical-extratropical
teleconnections in the ECMWF sub-seasonal and seasonal
prediction systems
Zhiwei WuPotential Influence of the
November-December Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode on the East Asian Winter Precipitation: A
New Mechanism
Nicholas SoulardThe spring link between the North
Atlantic Oscillation and Pacific-North American pattern
Caroline JouanAerosols effects on Numerical
Weather Prediction through impacts to the microphysics.
Jean-Pierre AuclairSolving the sea ice momentum
equation using Newton’s method: Non-linearity, numerics and
convergence.
Jean-Francois LemieuxA basal stress parameterization for
modeling landfast ice
Yukie HataAn Anisotropic Sigma-Coordinate
Sea-Ice Thermal Stress Model
Louis GarandAssimilation of Cris, ATMS, and European ground-based GPS at
Environment Canada
Ron McTaggart-CowanComparison of EnKF and EnVar-
based ensemble data assimilation methods
Keith HinesArctic System Reanalysis: 15 and
30 km Versions
Zhan LiEnKF Data Assimilation of Canada
Radar for a Lake-Effect Snowstorm in 2015
Natalia HryniwThe Antarctic Radiosonde
Network: Optimal Locations for Observation
Keith HinesAssimilating GPS RO in Polar
WRF to improve surface pressure estimation over Antarctica
Philip AustinSub-cloud plumes and cloud-plume interactions in the marine boundary
layer.
Bin YuA physical analysis of the severe
2013/14 cold winter in North America
Sanjiv KumarThe Soil Moisture Residence
Time and Its Atmospheric Connectivity
Yiwen MaoPredictive anisotropy of surface
wind vectors
Michael ForemanA Circulation Model for Baynes
Sound, British Columbia
Rich PawlowiczHorizontal circulation in the Strait
of Georgia
Di WanPhysical Oceanographic
Conditions in Douglas Channel, British Columbia
Richard DeweyThe 2013-15 North East Pacific Surface Warming Comes Near
Shore
Yongsheng WuRepresenting kelp forests in a
regional circulation model: the tidal circulation
Jennifer ShoreModelling the Bay of Quinte in
Lake Ontario using FVCOM
Eric BazileGABLS4: An Inter-Comparison
Case to Study the Stable Boundary Layer on the Antarctic Plateau
George IsaacGrand Banks Fog
Huixiang XieOrigin of the subsurface anomaly of dissolved methane in seawater
on the Baffin Bay and Labrador shelves
Nicole JefferyHow does iron accumulate in
Antarctic sea ice?
Elise OlsonPhysical Aggregation of Buoyant Trichodesmium spp. Colonies through Eddy/Wind Interaction:
Observations and Modeling
David CollinsA Stochastic Bulk Rate
Parameterization Driven by a Turbulent Collision Kernel
Akash SastriHigh resolution spatio-temporal patterns of surface CDOM in the
Strait of Georgia, BC
Loren OhA comparison of direct and bulk calculations of entrainment and detrainment in a high resolution simulation of tropical convection.
Joannie CharetteThe Changing Arctic Ocean: new environments conducive to algal
blooms
1330-1345
1345-1400
1400-1415
1415-1430
1430-1445
1445-1500
Land-atmosphere exchange of trace gases
Échange sol-atmosphère de gaz traces
Beaufort Sea Ocean-Ice-Atmosphere Dynamics
Dynamique océan-glace-atmosphère dans la mer de Beaufort
State of the CryosphereÉtat de la cryosphère
Climate Variability and Predictability IIVariabilité et prévisibilité du climat-Partie 2
The Labrador Sea as a Vital element of the climate system I
La mer du Labrador, un élément capital du système climatique-Partie 1
Coastal Oceanography and Inland Waters in a Changing Climate II
Océanographie côtière et eaux intérieures dans un climat changeant-Partie 2
Chemistry and Air QualityChimie atmosphérique et qualité de l’air
SpearheadRainbow Harmony Fitzsimmons Garibaldi A Garibaldi B Wedgemount
Wednesday Afternoon Part 1 - June 3 / Mercredi après-midi partie-1 - 3 juin
Matthew AsplinVariability in Wind Forcing Drives
Winter Sea Ice Drift in the Southern Beaufort Sea
Gary CorlettTowards a combined surface
temperature dataset for the Arctic from the Along-Track Scanning
Radiometers (ATSRs)
Jennifer HutchingsThe role of sea ice dynamic
preconditioning in recent Beaufort Sea change
Christian HaasThickness of sea ice and extreme
ice features in the Beaufort Sea
Michael SteeleSeasonal Ice Loss in the Beaufort
Sea: Toward Synchrony and Prediction
Jinhai HeMonitoring and Predicing the
meridional Propagation of the 30-60-day Variability of Precipitation in
the East Asian Subtropical Summer Monsoon Region
Boualem KhouiderSimulation of MJO and Monsoon ISO in an aquaplanet GCM with a
stochastic multicloud parameterization
Lei WangSummer Arctic Sea Ice Intra-
Seasonal Predictability Using a Vector Auto-Regressive Model
Yonghong YaoSubseasonal variability of
precipitation in China during boreal winter
Jennifer JacksonThe seasonal modification of
Canada Basin Halocline Water along the Canadian Beaufort
slope, Arctic Ocean
Andrew SnaufferDevelopment of a Statistical
Model for Snow Water Equivalent Estimates in British Columbia,
Canada
Chris DerksenImpact of observational
uncertainty in determining variability and change in Arctic snow cover and sea ice extent
Bruno TremblayUnderstanding the Interannual
Variability of the September Sea Ice Minimum: a Dynamic Approach
Ian EisenmanA spurious jump in the satellite record: has Antarctic sea ice
expansion been overestimated?
Stephen HowellWhat can CMIP5 sea ice
projections tell us about future navigability in Canadian Arctic
Waters?
Alexandre ForestIntense shelf-slope fluxes of
particulate matter in the mid-water column of the Canadian Beaufort Sea: linkages with atmospheric,
ice and ocean forcings
Vincent ChengA Bayesian Modeling Framework for Tornado Occurrences in North
America
Amanda LynchIs There An Economic Advantage
to Increased North Slope Navigability?
Paul MyersVITALS - Ventilation, Interactions
and Transports Across the Labrador Sea
Jean-Philippe PaquinModelled variations of deep
convection in the Irminger Sea during 2003-2010
Maggie CampbellPathways of Iceland-Scotland
Overflow Water in the Sub-Polar North Atlantic Ocean based upon
the NEMO ocean general circulation model
Nathan GrivaultEvolution of Baffin Bay water masses and transports in a climate change experiment including Greenland runoff
Alex FullerMultiple steady solutions of the circulation in the Labrador and
Irminger Seas
Ray NassarWeather, Climate and Air Quality
Observations of the Northern Latitudes from a Highly Elliptical
Orbit
Pascal MatteTowards an operational 2D non-
stationary hydrodynamic model of the St. Lawrence River and fluvial
estuary
Shiliang ShanA Modelling Study of Coastal Upwelling on the Scotian Shelf
Zhigang XuUsing the All-Source Green’s
Functions to Specify Barotropic Open Water Boundary Conditions
for A Regional Model
Pengcheng WangNumerical Study of Wave-Current
Interactions over the Eastern Canadian Shelf under Extreme
Weather Conditions
James DrummondMOPITT Measurements of Carbon
Monoxide: What Else Can We Learn?
Jiangnan LiCloud Semi-direct Effect and Its
impact on Climate
Guoqi HanModelling the response of Placentia
Bay to hurricanes Igor and Leslie
Nan HuRefining an Inverse Dispersion
Method for Sources on Undulating Terrain
Huiping PengAir Quality Prediction using Machines Learning Methods
Alison CassidyThe effect of permafrost
disturbances on carbon-dioxide exchange in a high arctic tundra
ecosystem
Andreas ChristenGreenhouse gas fluxes from a
disturbed bog in the Lower Fraser Valley undergoing restoration and
rewetting
Vivek AroraPotential future carbon uptake may
overcome losses from a large insect outbreak in British
Columbia, Canada
Baozhang ChenSatellite-observed changes in
terrestrial photosynthetic activity trends across the Asia-Pacific
region associated with land cover and climate from 1982 to 2011
John WilsonSurface-layer dispersion: Project
Prairie Grass, the turbulent Schmidt number and the flux
footprint
Guoqi HanSimulation of circulation and ice
over the Newfoundland and Labrador Shelves
1530-1545
1545-1600
1600-1615
1615-1630
1630-1645
1645-1700
Atmosphere, Ocean, and Climate Dynamics
Dynamique de l’atmosphère, des océans et du climat
The Session will examine the interactions between Inuit
knowledge holders and northern researchers. Discussions will look
at new and innovative ways of addressing communication between the “Two Ways of
Knowing” by examining lessons learned and opportunities for scientists and Inuit knowledge
holders to work better together in Arctic science.
La session examinera les interactions entre les détenteurs de connaissances Inuits et les
chercheurs du Nord. Les débats examineront les façons nouvelles
et novatrices d'aborder la communication entre les « Deux façons de savoir » en examinant
les leçons apprises et les possibilités pour les scientifiques
et les détenteurs de connaissances Inuits à mieux
travailler ensemble dans le domaine de la science de
l'Arctique. Notre débat de discussion
comprend / Our discussion panel includes:
* Vic Gillman, Fisheries Joint Management Committee, Inuvialuit Settlement Region, Inuvik, NWT • Baba Pedersen, Inuit Ranger
and Resource Management Officer, Kugluktuk, Nunavut
• Hal Ritchie, Canadian Operational Network of Coupled
Environmental Prediction Systems (CONCEPTS) Arctic Initiative
• Bill Williams, Oceanographer, Fisheries and Oceans Canada,
Two Ways of KnowingGIS ARCTIQUE: Deux perspectives du savoir : le savoir scientifique et le savoir
autochtone
Atmospheric Interfaces in the ArcticInterfaces atmosphèriques dans l'Arctique
Climate Variability and Predictability IIIVariabilité et prévisibilité du climat-Partie 3
The Labrador Sea as a Vital element of the climate system II
La mer du Labrador, un élément capital du système climatique-Partie 2
Coastal Oceanography and Inland Waters in a Changing Climate III
Océanographie côtière et eaux intérieures dans un climat changeant-Partie 3
Polar Clouds, Precipitation, and AerosolsNuages, précipitation et aérosols polaires
William WardCoordinated observations of Dynamics in the Arctic Polar
Mesosphere and Thermosphere: The Dynamics of the Neutral
Thermosphere Project
Ray GarnettDeterminants of Summer Weather
Extremes over the Canadian Prairies: Implications for Long Lead Grain
Forecasting
SpearheadRainbow Harmony Fitzsimmons Garibaldi A Garibaldi B Wedgemount
Wednesday Afternoon Part 2 - June 3 / Mercredi après-midi partie-2 - 3 juin
Mimi HughesThe climatological distribution of
extreme Arctic winds, and implications for ocean and sea ice
processes.
James DrummondThe Polar Environment
Atmospheric Research Laboratory (PEARL) at Eureka, Nunavut
Ola PerssonAtmosphere-Ice-Ocean
Interactions During Summer Melt and Early Autumn Freeze-up:
Observations from the ACSE Field Program
Glen LesinsHigh Frequency Temperature and Pressure Measurements in Very
Stable Winter Boundary Layers at the Eureka Flux Tower
Joseph HammanEvaluation of the Land Surface Climate in the Regional Arctic
System Model (RASM)
Song YangExtended-Range Forecast of Tropical
Asian Summer Monsoon
Edward Blanchard-WrigglesworthModel skill and sensitivity to initial conditions in a sea-ice prediction
system
Youmin TangThe Climatologically relevant singular vector and its application in climate
predictions
Zhiwei WuInterdecadal Variability of the mega-
ENSO-NAO Synchronization in Winter
Hai LinGEM-NEMO global coupled model for subseasonal to seasonal predictions
John LoderHistorical and Recent
Hydrographic Variability in the Labrador Sea, and Larger-Scale
Linkages
Xianmin HuImpact of Greenland Melt on the
East and West Greenland Currents and the North-West
Labrador Sea
Yarisbel Garcia QuintanaLabrador Sea Water formation
rate, 2002-2010, from a numerical model.
Mitchell WolfUsing Argo-O2 data to examine
the impact of deep-water formation events on oxygen uptake in the Labrador Sea
John LoderRecent Oceanographic Variability on the Scotian Slope and Rise,
and Upstream Linkages
Karina Ramos MusalemThe combined effect of mixing
and advection for tracers within a submarine canyon
Ram Rao YerubandiOn the simulation of Algal Blooms
in Lake Erie
Jennifer JacksonSatellite Chlorophyll off the British
Columbia Coast, 1997-2010
Roberta HammeThe interplay of denitrification and deep-water renewal dynamics in
Saanich Inlet
Ben Moore-MaleyLong-term variability of pH and aragonite saturation state in the
Strait of Georgia
Debby IansonThe vulnerability of the Strait of Georgia to Ocean Acidification
and Hypoxia
Matthew ShupeThe interplay of Arctic surface
fluxes, stratocumulus clouds, and cloud-driven mixed layers
Tristan L'EcuyerSatellite Constraints on the Roles
of Supercooled Liquid and Snowfall on Arctic Energy and
Water Cycles
Samuel LeBlancChanging arctic cloud properties at the sea-ice edge measured by airborne observations from Fall
2014
Nathaniel MillerCloud influence on the surface
energy budget of the Greenland Ice Sheet
Lauren ZamoraAircraft-measured indirect cloud
effects from biomass burning smoke in the Arctic
Norm O'NeillPolar winter aerosol optical depth (AOD) : spectrally and temporally cloud-screened (starphotometer) AODs compared with CALIOP
and GEOS-Chem estimates
Stephanie WatermanA Geometric Decomposition of
Eddy-Mean Flow Interactions
David StraubDissipation of geostrophic flow by wind-driven near-inertial oscillations
Yavor KostovSouthern Ocean cooling in a
warming world: reassessing the role of westerly winds
Amber HoldsworthModelling Near surface winds in
the Nocturnal Boundary Layer
Oliver Watt-MeyerThe role of standing waves in
driving persistent anomalies of upward wave activity flux
Colin GoldblattFrom Snowball Earth to the
Runaway Greenhouse: multiple climate states of Earth now
1030-1045
1045-1100
1100-1115
1115-1130
1130-1145
1145-1200
Wedgemount
Observations IIObservations-Partie 2
New Approaches to Ocean ObservingNouvelles méthodes d’observation de
l’océan
Mixing in the Open and Coastal OceansMélange en pleine mer et près des côtes
High latitude glacier and ice sheet interaction with the atmosphere and ocean
Interaction des glaciers et des nappes glaciaires des hautes latitudes avec
l’atmosphère et l’océan
Operational ForecastingPrévision opérationnelle
Harmony
Thursday Morning - June 4 / Jeudi matin - 4 juin
Chris McLindenThe TEMPO geostationary air
quality mission and what it means for Canada
Stephanie WatermanRates and mechanisms of turbulent
dissipation and mixing in the Southern Ocean
Fitzsimmons Garibaldi A Garibaldi B
James DrummondCarbon Monoxide Events and Trends over 15 Years from the
MOPITT Space Instrument
Pierre FogalRe-investigation of a long term
infrared spectral data set for ozone recorded at 80° N
Gerrit HollCross-validation of methane
retrievals from ACE-FTS, GOSAT, and ground-based solar absorption measurements, at Eureka, Nunavut.
Alexander RadkevichModeling of TOA radiance
measured by CERES over the East Antarctic Plateau
Marcelo SantosGeodetic Applications of Ray-
tracing through the neutral-atmosphere
Steve MihalyThe first year of autonomous
water column measurements in Saanich Inlet: The Saanich Inlet
Buoy Profiling System
Charles HannahSurface drift in the Douglas
Channel area: adventures with a low cost satellite tracked drifter.
Kevin BartlettOperating Oceanographic HF Radar Systems in the Coastal
Waters of BC
Mark HalversonDrifter-based validation of the
Ocean Networks Canada Strait of Georgia CODAR array
Cedric ChavanneHindcasts of surface drifter
trajectories using high-frequency radars : skill sensitivity to drifter
depth in a highly vertically- sheared environment
Jody KlymakMixing in the Canadian Arctic
Archipelago
Nancy SoontiensMixing and dissipation in a regional
model of the Salish Sea
Clark RichardsDynamics of glacier calving in a West Greenland tidewater fjord
Laura GillardOcean Circulation and Marine Terminating Glaciers of the
Canadian Arctic Archipelago and the Greenland Ice Sheet
Adrien GilbertRecent and future evolution of Barnes ice cap (Baffin Island,
Canada)
Jim AbrahamThe Future of the Weather
Enterprise
Renee TatuskoThe NOAA Arctic Test Bed
Uwe GramannCommunicating and forecast
uncertainty during the 2014 Lake Louise FIS Alpine Ski World Cup.
Nan MiaoAccess forecast uncertainties
from a multi-model post-processing system
Iain RussellVerification of precipitation
start/stop times derived from probabilistic nowcasting
Herb WinstonA Heavy Precipitation Event as
Observed by King City’s Upgraded Dual-Polarization C-
Band Radar
Jody KlymakTurbulence in low Froude number
stratified flows
Hesam SalehipourSmall scale shear stratified
turbulent mixing and its inference for the global Oceans
David DeepwellMass transport and mixing by
mode-2 internal waves
Sam PimentelModelling the dynamic response of Belcher Glacier (Devon Island, Nunavut) to seasonal surface melt
L. Mac CathlesSurface roughness and other controls on the albedo of ice
sheets
Shawn MarshallA comparison of surface energy balance and degree day models
for mass balance of Arctic icefields and the Greenland Ice
Sheet
Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Canadian Geophysical Union La Société canadienne de météorologie et d’océanographie Union Géophysique Canadienne
Fredericton, NB
29 mai – 2 juin / May 29 – June 2, 2016 http://congress.cmos.ca
2016 Joint Scientific Congress of CMOS and CGU Congrès scientifique 2016, SCMO, UGC
Monitoring and Adapting to Extreme Events and Long-Term Variations
La Surveillance et l’adaptation aux événements extrêmes et aux variations à long terme
Photos: City of Fredericton Art: MCS
kwww.hos in.ca Vancouver | Burlington | Montreal
Monitoring Solutions from Sea to Sky
A wide range of multiparameter water quality profiling & long
term deployment instruments
Real-Time datalogging solutions & sensors:loggers, bubblers, transducers, radar sensors with GOES& iridium satellite
Complete weather stationsdesigned for standalone monitoring
A wide range of multiparameter water quality profiling & long
term deployment instruments
Editors / Éditeurs: Bruce Ainslie, Tim Ashman, & Andres Soux
Abstract Book
Recueil des résumés
49th CMOS Congress
13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and
Oceanography
Abstract book
Tropics To Poles:Advancing science in high latitudes
49e congrès SCMO
13e conférence AMS sur la météorologie polaire et l’océanographie
Recueil des résumés
Des Tropiques Aux Poles : Avancement de la science des hautes latitudes
Whistler 2015
May 31– June 4, 2015 31 mai – 4 juin 2015
Editoris / Éditeurs : Bruce Ainslie, Tim Ashman, Andres Soux
Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
Société canadienne de météorologie et d'océanographie
ISBN 978-0-9880587-3-6
Introduction This book contains the abstracts of all the oral communications and posters presented at the 49th Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (CMOS) Congress and the 13th American Meteorological Society’s (AMS) Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography in Whistler from May 31-June 4, 2015. The abstracts are ordered chronologically by scientific sessions. Some communications may have been removed from the program after the publication date of this book. For a final updated list, see the address below.
Introduction Ce recueil rassemble les résumés de tous les communications orales et de tous les posters présentés au 49e congrès Société canadienne de météorologie et d'océanographie (SCMO) et 13e conférence American Meteorological Society (AMS) sur la météorologie polaire et l’océanographie à Whistler du 31 mai au 4 juin 2015. Les résumés sont classés par ordre chronologique par des sessions scientifiques. Quelques communications peuvent avoir été retirées du programme après la date de publication de ce recueil. Pour une liste définitive tenue à jour, voir l'adresse suivante.
https://www.cmos.ca
Plenary Day 1
Monday June 1 (0830-1000)Session:10101Plenary Day 1
Ballrooms B and C
08:30Recent decadal trends in the tropical Paci�c and their impact on Antarctic and theArcticDavid Battisti11University of WashingtonContact: [email protected]
The global average temperature increased rapidly from about 1980 to 2000, but it has not increasedappreciably in the past 15 years or so - despite a signi�cant increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide.The stall in the rise in global temperature, called the hiatus, is due in large part to a decrease in thesea surface temperature in the eastern tropical and subtropical Paci�c. In this talk, I will presentresults that demonstrate the decadal-scale trends in the tropical Paci�c were likely responsiblefor the destabilization of the Pine Island Glacier and other ice shelves in West Antarctic in the1990s, and for about half of the remarkable warming over Greenland and northeast Canada inthe past 15 years. Several hypotheses have been put forward to describe the global hiatus andthe tropical Paci�c temperature trends - ranging from natural variability to a regional response tohuman activity (increased carbon dioxide or atmospheric aerosols). I will review these ideas, arguethat climate models used by the IPCC are incapable for evaluating these hypotheses, and suggesta way forward so that we can better understand the cause of past climate variability and improvethe projections of future climate.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 1
Plenary Day 1
Monday June 1 (0830-1000)Session:10102Plenary Day 1
Ballrooms B and C
09:15The impact of Arctic warming on the midlatitude jetstream: Can it? Has it? Will it?Elizabeth Barnes11Colorado State UniversityContact: [email protected] Arctic region has warmed more rapidly than the globe as a whole, and this has been ac-companied by unprecedented sea ice melt. Such large environmental changes are already havingprofound impacts on those that live in the Arctic region. An open question, however, is whetherthese Arctic changes have an e�ect on weather patterns farther south. This broad question hasrecently received a lot of scienti�c and media attention, but conclusions appear contradictory ratherthan consensual. We argue that one point of confusion has arisen due to ambiguities in the exactquestion being posed. Here we frame our inquiries around three clear and tractable questions: CanArctic warming in�uenced the midlatitude jet stream? Has Arctic warming signi�cantly in�uencedthe midlatitude jetstream? Will future Arctic warming signi�cantly in�uence the midlatitude jetstream? Here, we will frame a discussion of jetstream variability around these three questions: Canit?, Has it?, Will it?; however, we note that these three questions are still a long way from beingfully answered.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 2
Plenary Day 2
Tuesday June 2 (0830-1000)Session:10201Plenary Day 2
Ballrooms B and C
08:30Arctic Ocean scales of variability and changeMary-Louise Timmermans11Yale UniversityContact: [email protected]
This talk will review highlights of recent Arctic Ocean measurements, encompassing a wide range oftemporal and spatial scales, in an exploration of ocean drivers of sea ice and climate change. Arcticfreshwater dynamics, ocean heat and mixing processes, circulation and eddies, and atmosphere-ice-ocean interactions and their interrelationships will be surveyed. Observations indicate apparentlyrapid changes in the basin-scale freshwater distribution that have marked e�ects on Arctic strati�-cation. Recent measurements support the idea that a strengthened strati�cation limits the vertical�ux of deep-ocean heat. All ocean layers exhibit a rich mesoscale eddy �eld. Measurements furtherreveal an active submesoscale �ow �eld that modi�es heat, salt, and momentum �uxes betweenthe ocean and adjacent sea-ice cover. Pervasive double-di�usive structures link the smallest tothe largest spatial scales of variability in the Arctic, and allow for constraints to be placed on theregional and temporal changes in the transfer of heat and salt.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 3
Plenary Day 2
Tuesday June 2 (0830-1000)Session:10202Plenary Day 2
Ballrooms B and C
09:15Factors in�uencing the surface albedo feedback in coupled climate modelsMarika Holland11National Center for Atmospheric ResearchContact: [email protected]�ed Arctic surface warming in response to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, or so calledArctic Ampli�cation, is a ubiquitous feature of climate model simulations. However, the magnitudeof this ampli�cation varies considerably across models, in part due to di�ering strengths of thesimulated surface albedo feedback. Numerous factors in�uence the surface albedo response to risinggreenhouse gas concentrations. These include changes in sea ice surface properties, ice-coveredarea, and snow conditions. Here we assess a number of these factors using simulations from a largeensemble of the Community Earth System Model and simulations from other models participatingin the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). This includes an analysis of aspectsthat contribute to the spread across models in projected albedo change and Arctic Ampli�cation.The results provide insight on the uncertainty in future projections, possible methods to betterconstrain those projections, and model development needs.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 4
Plenary Day 3
Wednesday June 3 (0830-1000)Session:10301Plenary Day 3
Ballrooms B and C
08:30Canadian Arctic Oceanography: present and future research priorities based on lessonsfrom the pastDavid Fissel11ASL Environmental Sciences Inc.Contact: d�[email protected] advances have been realized over the past forty years in our scienti�c understandings ofthe physical oceanography and marine ice regime of the Canadian Arctic. These advances havebeen driven by the increased priority of Arctic research at the Canadian federal government level,albeit often uneven in its application, and more priority at the international level over the pasttwo decades. A related impetus for Arctic oceanography and ice research has been the search fornatural resources including o�shore oil and gas and mining along with the increased awareness ofenvironmental assessments for proposed industrial developments. Scienti�cally, the awareness ofthe importance of the Arctic to climate change and to the global ocean has also been an importantdriver for Arctic research. Over the past four decades, Canadian Arctic ocean and ice research hasbeen challenged by the remoteness of the area including the high cost of accessing it by ship forshort periods in summer. Key enablers of Arctic Ocean and ice research are technological advance-ments including: satellite and aircraft based remote sensing, advances in underwater instrumentarrays to allow year-long observation measurement programs from subsurface moorings; satellitecommunications systems for allowing data collection from ice- and ocean-based drifting platforms;numerical modeling advances. While improved technology have bene�ted oceanographic researchon a global basis, the bene�ts have been largest in remote areas of the planet such as the Cana-dian Arctic. Even with these advances, the Canadian Arctic remains less well understand thanfor the more temperate oceans adjoining Canada, especially in the long period of ice cover withineach year. Scienti�c understandings must address the high degree of interannual variability in theArctic, combined with the very large climate changes of the Arctic by comparison to other partsof the world. Key gaps in our present understandings will be presented leading to some proposedresearch priorities for the future.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 5
Plenary Day 3
Wednesday June 3 (0830-1000)Session:10302Plenary Day 3
Ballrooms B and C
09:15Marine biogeochemistry in the ArcticNadja Steiner11Fishereies and Oceans CanadaContact: [email protected]
Climate change forces multiple stressors on Arctic marine ecosystems, such as warming, sea-iceretreat, ocean acidi�cation and enhanced strati�cation limiting food supply. Expanding economicdevelopment might cause additional stressors, e.g. pollution and potential oil spills. Many changesare faster and more profound in the Arctic than in any other region of the world ocean, hence thestudy of marine biogeochemical processes in high latitudes has received a boost of attention in thelast two decades. With a variety of projects including intense measurement programs we somewhatbelatedly struggle to establish some baseline before potentially irreversible system changes occur.Projecting future ecosystem responses to climate change and other potential stressors requiresthe application of numerical ecosystem models. The 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5) includes for the �rst time a variety of Earth system models (ESMs, model systems withfully coupled atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land components including interactive biogeochemicalmodules for all components), allowing the study of future projections of the marine carbon cycleand ecosystem behavior. However, the still fairly coarse horizontal and vertical resolution restrictsthe ability to resolve biological or chemical processes happening in the euphotic zone as well assmall-scale physical processes important for biogeochemistry. Model skill for biogeochemical vari-ables in global ESMs is still low, especially for the Arctic, where observational data are few andseasonally biased, and where shelf areas and narrow passages are common features. I will providean update of results from ESM intercomparison studies in the Arctic which show both consistenttrends (e.g. acidi�cation) as well as di�erences (e.g. future primary production) among the models.I will discuss the shortcomings in ESMs and improvements obtained with the application of higherresolution regional models. In addition I will highlight the use of 1-D models in the developmentof model parameterizations, including biogeochemical, mixing, gas and radiative transfer processes.An example is the 1D General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) plus sea ice which is used forphysical forcing and coupled to biogeochemistry modules via the Framework for Aquatic Biogeo-chemical Models (FABM). Following a main focus on the pelagic ecosystem, I will then guide someattention to sea-ice biogeochemistry. Our knowledge of the role sea-ice biogeochemical processesplay in local and global systems is severely limited by our poor con�dence in numerical modelparameterisations representing those processes. Improving those parameterisations requires com-munication between observationalists and modellers to both guide model development and improvethe aquisition and presentation of observational results. In addition to more observations, we needconceptual and quantitative descriptions of the processes controlling e.g. the incorporation and re-lease of sea ice algae, the magnitude and limits of primary production, and the release or absorptionof radiatively active gases, such as CO2 and DMS. I will present some guidelines to help modellers,and observationalists improve the integration of measurements and modelling e�orts and advancetowards the common goal of understanding the biogeochemical processes involved and their impactson environmental systems.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 6
Plenary Day 4
Thursday June 4 (0830-1000)Session:10401Plenary Day 4
Ballrooms B and C
08:30Twenty-�rst century warming and the deglaciation of Western CanadaGarry Clarke11University of British ColumbiaContact: [email protected] in mountainous parts of Alberta and British Columbia are faring badly in a warmingclimate. We project their future using a regional glaciation model (RGM): a coupled model ofglacier dynamics and surface mass balance. The model is forced by an ensemble of global climatemodels, downscaled to the 200 m resolution of the RGM, and four climate scenarios (RCP2.6,RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). Our results indicate that by 2100 the volume of glacier ice in westernCanada will shrink by as much as 80% relative to 2005. Most mountain ranges become completelydeglaciated, but glaciers near the Paci�c coast, in particular those in northwestern British Columbia,will survive in a diminished state. The maximum rate of ice volume loss, corresponding to peakinput of deglacial meltwater to streams and rivers, is projected to occur around 2020-2040.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 7
Plenary Day 4
Thursday June 4 (0830-1000)Session:10402Plenary Day 4
Ballrooms B and C
09:15Eye in the sky: Monitoring air pollution from spaceChris McLinden11Environment Canada, Air Quality Research DivisionContact: [email protected]
Beginning in earnest around 2000, several satellite instruments have been launched that are designedprimarily to quantify air pollution levels in the lowermost atmosphere. These "air quality" sensorsmeasure either sunlight re�ected by Earth and its atmosphere, or radiation emitted from them,and from this are able to provide global information on a wide range of compounds linked tosmog and acid rain. These include ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide, carbon monoxide,ammonia, particulate matter, and others. Beyond the more straightforward monitoring and trendapplications, these measurements are being used in conjunction with atmospheric models to provideinsight into current and near-future surface concentrations of these pollutants as well as their ratesof emission and their environmental impacts. This talk will: (i) review what types of data arecurrently available along with their strengths and limitations, (ii) present examples of how thesedata are applied towards pollution monitoring, trend assessment, emissions, and impacts (including�ndings from the Alberta oil sands), (iii) discuss challenges unique to Canada and other nations athigher latitudes, (iv) examine what the future may hold, and (v) touch on how these analyses andresults are relevant for policy and decision-makers.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 8
Public Lecture
Tuesday June 2 (1900-2100)Session:10203Public Lecture
Rainbow
19:00Arctic Collaboration: challenges and opportunities in building global partnershipsKurt Salchert11Beyond the Border Consulting Ltd.Contact: [email protected]
Problem statement: In an increasingly inter-connected, inter-dependent and rapidly changing glob-alized world, there continues to be an absence of habitual and persistent relationships across theglobal maritime and Arctic communities of Interest, which is essential to developing a compre-hensive shared understanding of the Maritime Domain, and in particular the Arctic region. Theunprecedented changes which are occurring in the Maritime Domain as a direct or indirect resultof changes which are occurring in the Arctic region are clear and unequivocal; however, withouta comprehensive shared understanding of these unique domains, decision-makers from around theworld are faced with the challenge of making and enforcing decisions of potentially geo-strategicsigni�cance on the basis of scanty, incomplete or wrong information. Background: The Arcticcommunity of interest and indeed the broader global maritime community of interest is made upof stakeholders representing international, national, regional, state and local government, academicand business communities, international organizations, nongovernmental organizations, think tanks,special interest groups, as well as individual citizens. The overall safety, security and health of theArctic and maritime domains, as well as the e�ciency and resilience of a global supply chain whichis steadily becoming more reliant on ocean resources and maritime transportation routes, dependson both the physical �ow of materials and goods as well as information �ow from origin to des-tination. There is little bene�t to the overall management of the Arctic and maritime domains(and those activities and interests which in�uence or are in�uenced by these domains) if certainlinks or stakeholders are maintaining habitual and persistent relationships while others are not, orif there are shortfalls in information sharing and collaboration among stakeholders. It is the totalperformance of this highly complex system that is relevant. The world has become a system ofsystems in which people, cargo, conveyances, information, the physical environment, as well as realand virtual infrastructure are linked into intricate patterns of dependency with other inter-modaltransportation methods and facilities spread around the world; and, in fact, the Arctic and mar-itime domains cannot be looked at in isolation from the broader air, space, land and cyber domainsdue to the various dependencies and interdependencies of this complex system of systems. Aim:To share unique insights into the challenges of relationship-building across key stakeholders of theglobal maritime and Arctic communities of interest and to propose a number of potential solutions,solution enablers and possible areas for further research to enhance Arctic and Maritime DomainAwareness in order to enable timely and well-informed decisions and actions related to this area ofgeo-strategic signi�cance. Methodology: This assessment will be based on my previous academic re-search and on my recent professional experiences while serving in Washington, D.C. as CommanderNorth American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and U.S. Northern Command's primaryCanadian advisor in the U.S. national capital. With o�ces at the Embassy of Canada and variouslocations throughout the U.S. defence, intelligence and interagency communities, I was responsiblefor nurturing strong collaborative relationships with stakeholders from around the globe to facili-
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 9
Public Lecture
Tuesday June 2 (1900-2100)Session:10203Public Lecture
Rainbow
tate dialogue between national security planners, political decision-makers, industry, and academicstakeholders with actionable insights regarding the most signi�cant global strategic challenges ofthe day; including understanding the various global interests in a rapidly changing Arctic.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 10
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1030-1200)Session:30401
Climate Change and Extreme Events IFitzsimmons
10:30Downscaling Extremes - a set of climate change projections for CanadaTrevor Murdock1, Alex Cannon1, Steve Sobie11Paci�c Climate Impacts ConsortiumContact: [email protected] for projections of climate extreme events has arisen out of local infrastructure vulnerabilityassessments and adaptation planning. Global climate models (GCMs) are often too coarse in reso-lution to provide information speci�c to regional and local communities. To obtain the local dataneeded, statistical downscaling methods are frequently used to generate high resolution projectionsfor individual assessments or areas. The skill of multiple statistical downscaling methods were com-pared using multiple measures of skill. Then, an ensemble of CMIP5 simulations was selected basedon historical simulation of extremes and a clustering algorithm to ensure the ensemble representsa wide range of projected climate change. Finally, the e�ect that downscaling on the magnitudeand distribution of changes in extreme events that are projected to occur in GCMs was then exam-ined to assess whether the downscaling process preserves the large-scale GCM spatial patterns andprecipitation distributions. Selected applications of the new dataset of downscaled climate projec-tions, which are available at http://www.paci�cclimate.org/data/statistically-downscaled-climate-scenarios, will be highlighted.
10:45On the use of statistical downscaling time-invariant transfer functions and their e�ecton di�erent historical and future metrics. Case study: daily maximum temperaturein Montreal, Canada.Carlos Gaitan Ospina11South Central Climate Science CenterContact: [email protected]
Nowadays a wide community of users is interested in information about climate variables at a spatialscale not resolved by the current generation of global climate models (GCMs). Among the typicalusers of high resolution data we can �nd hydrologists, biologists, ecologists, economists, planningagencies, insurance companies, policy-makers and government agencies interested in providing localscale information relevant to their stakeholders. Statistical downscaling techniques are often used togenerate �ner scale projections of climate variables a�ected by local scale processes not resolved bythe coarser resolution GCMs. Statistical downscaling models rely on several assumptions in orderto produce �ner/local scale projections of the variable of interest; one of these assumptions is thetimeinvariance of the relationships between predictors (e.g. coarse resolution GCM output) and thelocal scale predictands (e.g. gridded observation based time-series or weather station observations).However, in the absence of future observations, statistical downscaling studies use historical datato evaluate their models and assume that these historical simulation skills will be retained in thefuture. Here we study the e�ect of this generally overlooked assumption when downscaling dailymaximum temperatures and using the downscaled information to estimate historical and futuremetrics like return periods and heat waves durations over Montreal, Canada. To do so, we usedregional climate model (RCM) output from the Canadian RCM 4.2, as proxies of historical and
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 11
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1030-1200)Session:30401
Climate Change and Extreme Events IFitzsimmons
future local climates, and daily maximum temperatures obtained from the Canadian GCM 3.1.The results show that the root mean squared errors (RMSEs) between the pseudo-observations andthe statistically downscaled time-series (historical and future) varied over time, with higher errorsin the future period. The results also show the e�ect of di�erent post-processing techniques likerandomization and variance-in�ation on the tails of the statistically downscaled time-series.
11:00Observed trends in severe weather conditions based on humidex, wind chill and heavyrainfall events in Canada for 1953Eva Mekis1, Lucie A. Vincent1, Mark W. Shephard1, Xuebin Zhang11Environment CanadaContact: [email protected]
Observed trends in severe weather conditions based on alert statements to the public are examinedacross Canada. Changes in extreme heat and extreme cold events represented by various humidexand wind chill indices are analyzed for 1953-2012 at 126 climatological stations. Changes in heavyrainfall events based on rainfall amounts provided by the Tipping Bucket Rainfall Gauges areanalyzed for 1960-2012 at 285 stations. The results show that extreme heat events de�ned bydays with at least one hourly humidex value above 30oC have signi�cantly increased at more than36% of the stations mainly located south of 55oN, and days with nighttime hourly humidex valuesremaining above 20oC have signi�cantly increased at more than 52% of the stations mainly locatedsouth of 50oN. Extreme cold events represented by days with at least one hourly wind chill valuebelow -30oC have signi�cantly decreased at more than 76% of the locations across the country. Noconsistent changes were found in heavy rainfall events. Since city residents are very much vulnerableto severe weather events, detailed results in extreme heat, extreme cold and heavy rainfall eventsare also provided for ten urban centres.
11:15Climate Change Impacts to Natural Disturbances in Northern British ColumbiaVanessa Foord11BC Ministry of Forests, Lands, and Natural Resource OperationsContact: [email protected]
Northern BC is experiencing signi�cant changes to its climate and impacts are already occurring.Most notably, recent winter warming provided conditions for overwinter survival of the MountainPine Beetle which resulted in large-scale mortality of pine trees at epidemic levels. Other pestsand some forest diseases are �nding current climate conditions more favourable for their survivaland spread. Loss of snow, ice, and mountain permafrost is creating conditions more suitable forlandslides. Low elevation permafrost in northeastern BC is warm and at risk of melting and causingstability issues. Winters are becoming shorter and contributing to extended forest �res seasons.Hydrological regimes are changing and becoming more di�cult to predict. This presentation willfocus on current e�orts in the Ministry of Forests, Lands, and Natural Resource Operations tomonitor climate impacts in northern BC and risks to natural disturbances.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 12
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1030-1200)Session:30401
Climate Change and Extreme Events IFitzsimmons
11:30The Delicate Undertaking of Making Climate Science Relevant to Decision-MakingDavid Huard1, Mchael Vieira2, Nathalie Thiémonge31Ouranos2Manitoba Hydro3Hydro-QuébecContact: [email protected]
In the few instances where climate scientists meet decision-makers, many hurdles hinder the ex-change of information. On the science side, the wide array of results conditional on apparentlyarbitrary emission scenarios, climate models and natural variability makes the interpretation ofresults a daunting task. On the decision side, there are also myriad factors at play in any decision,some political, social or economic, and as climate scientists, we usually cannot tell how signi�cantclimate uncertainties are compared to other kinds of uncertainties. This focus on uncertaintiesand their sources required by standards of scienti�c integrity is obviously at odds with decision-makers needs for straight answers, yet is not something scientists are willing to give up. In a projecttargeting hydroelectric generation, we are testing an approach called Robust Decision Making withthe aim of lowering perceptual barriers to the inclusion of climate projections into decision-makingprocesses. This approach can be thought of as a sensitivity study to climate change as well as to theother factors a�ecting the decision process. Climate projections only enter the picture at the end ofthe analysis, where instead of conditioning the results as in typical impact studies, it is interpretedas an expert judgment about the likelihood of parameterized climate change scenarios.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 13
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1030-1200)Session:405
Mechanisms of Polar Change and VariabilityGaribaldi A
10:30Temperature change on the Antarctic Peninsula linked to the tropical Paci�cQinghua Ding1, Eric Steig21Polar Science Centerl, APL, University of Washington2University of WashingtonContact: [email protected]
Signi�cant summer warming over the eastern Antarctic Peninsula in the last 50 years has beenattributed to a strengthening of the circumpolar westerlies, widely believed to be anthropogenic inorigin. On the western side of the Peninsula, signi�cant warming has occurred mainly in australwinter and has been attributed to the reduction of sea ice. We show that austral fall is the onlyseason in which spatially extensive warming has occurred on the Antarctic Peninsula. This isaccompanied by a signi�cant reduction of sea ice cover o� the west coast. In winter and spring,warming is mainly observed on the west side of the Peninsula. The most important large-scaleforcing of the signi�cant wide-spread warming trend in fall is the extratropical Rossby wave trainassociated with tropical Paci�c sea surface temperature anomalies. Winter and spring warming onthe western Peninsula re�ects the persistence of sea ice anomalies arising from the tropically forcedatmospheric circulation changes in austral fall.
11:00Seasonal Antarctic station-based pressure reconstruction evaluation during the 20thcenturyChad Goergens1, Ryan Fogt11Ohio UniversityContact: [email protected]
A key component in understanding climate variations across Antarctica, whether from the SouthernAnnular Mode (SAM) or from tropical teleconnections, is understanding changes in the atmosphericcirculation. Yet, as with much of Antarctic data, researchers are left with neither long-term point(station) measurements of pressure variations across Antarctica, nor gridded pressure data fromreanalyses or models that can be deemed reliable, given very little in situ data to constrain thesolution across the high southern latitudes. This presentation provides station-based reconstruc-tions of 17 Antarctic manned stations by seasons. We employ principal component regression usingmidlatitude pressure observations as predictors individually for each Antarctic station. We are ableto reconstruct the austral summer and winter pressure back until 1905 with fairly high skill, andmodest skill in austral spring and autumn. The reconstruction skill along the Antarctic Peninsulais considerably higher in all seasons. A few reconstructions are used as examples to place the recentatmospheric circulation changes in a longer historical context, thereby highlighting the unique-ness of these recent changes. Future work includes conducting a spatial Antarctic-wide pressurereconstruction back until 1905.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 14
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1030-1200)Session:405
Mechanisms of Polar Change and VariabilityGaribaldi A
11:15How Climate Model Complexity In�uences Sea Ice StabilityTill Wagner1, Ian Eisenman11Scripps Institution of OceanographyContact: [email protected]
Record lows in Arctic sea ice extent are making frequent headlines in recent years. The changein albedo when sea ice is replaced by open water introduces a nonlinearity that has sparked anongoing debate about the stability of the Arctic sea ice cover and the possibility of Arctic �tippingpoints�. Previous studies identi�ed instabilities for a shrinking ice cover in two types of idealizedclimate models: (i) annual-mean latitudinally-varying di�usive energy balance models (EBMs) and(ii) seasonally-varying single-column models (SCMs). The instabilities in these low-order modelsstand in contrast with results from comprehensive global climate models (GCMs), which typicallydo not simulate any such instability. To help bridge the gap between low-order models and GCMs,we develop an idealized model that includes both latitudinal and seasonal variations. The modelreduces to a standard EBM or SCM as limiting cases in the parameter space, thus reconcilingthe two previous lines of research. We �nd that the stability of the ice cover vastly increaseswith the inclusion of spatial communication via meridional heat transport or a seasonal cycle insolar forcing, being most stable when both are included. If the associated parameters are set tovalues that correspond to the current climate, the ice retreat is reversible and there is no instabilitywhen the climate is warmed. The two parameters have to be reduced by at least a factor of 3 forinstability to occur. This implies that the sea ice cover may be substantially more stable than hasbeen suggested in previous idealized modeling studies.
11:30Inter-annual variability of Arctic mixed layer properties from 1979 to 2012Cecilia Peralta-Ferriz1, Rebecca Woodgate11Polar Science Center, APL, University of WashingtonContact: [email protected]
As part of a recent observation-based assessment of the variability of pan-Arctic mixed layer prop-erties (i.e., temperature, salinity and depth) we have quanti�ed seasonal mixed layer depth change,and provided insight on the dominant contributors to mixed layer depth variability [Peralta-Ferrizand Woodgate, 2015]. This assessment shows that the seasonal variability of Arctic mixed layerdepth may be largely explained by the seasonal cycle of sea ice growth and melt, and that thee�ectiveness of the wind to deepen the mixed layer depends on the strength of the underlyingstrati�cation. The study also shows that the underlying strati�cation exerts a dominant control(compared to wind) in determining the depths of the mixed layer. In this presentation, we focuson the inter-annual and multi-year trends in mixed layer properties from 1979 to 2012 in six re-gions of the Arctic Ocean (Chukchi Sea, Southern Beaufort Sea, Canada Basin, Makarov Basin,Eurasian Basin and Barents Sea). Despite an increase in the ice-free area of the Arctic Ocean (thuspresumably increasing the Arctic's vulnerability to wind-stirring), we �nd that there is a small butsigni�cant and nearly pan-Arctic shoaling trend (about 1 m/yr), associated with a small - yet sig-ni�cant - freshening of the mixed layer. The only exceptions are during the winter in the Southern
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 15
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1030-1200)Session:405
Mechanisms of Polar Change and VariabilityGaribaldi A
Beaufort and Barents seas, where the trends are towards deepening and salinization of the mixedlayer. We explore the possible causes of this nearly-ubiquitous Arctic mixed layer depth shoaling,and provide perspective of these changes in mixed layer properties as the Arctic Ocean transitionsinto a seasonally ice-free environment. Peralta-Ferriz, C. and R. A. Woodgate (2015), Seasonaland interanual variability of pan-Arctic Surface mixed layer properties from 1979 to 2012 fromhydrographic data, and the dominance of strati�cation for multiyear mixed layer depth shoaling,Progress in Oceanography, in press.
11:45The changing contribution of Snow to Hudson Bay River Discharge.Bunu Sharma1, Stephen Déry11Natural Resources and Environment Studies NRES, University of Northern British ColumbiaContact: [email protected]
Hudson Bay (HB) in northern Canada covers an area of 1.2 million km2 with a drainage basinspanning 3.8 million km2. Freshwater discharge into HB has historically averaged approximately950 km3 yr-1, amounting to some 20% of total annual �uvial contributions to the Arctic Ocean.However, there have been indications that the volume and distribution of �ows have changed inrecent decades. These shifts may be due to changing snow accumulation and ablation regimesacross central North America. This presentation will therefore quantify the changing contributionof snowmelt from eighteen major river basins draining into Hudson Bay (including James Bay)between 1980 and 2008. The analysis is based on daily snow water equivalent (SWE) data fromGlobSnow, and daily stream�ow data from the Water Survey of Canada and Le Centre d'ExpertiseHydrique du Québec. The contribution of snowmelt to stream�ow generation is estimated fromthe ratio of water year maximum SWE to runo�. Interannual and interdecadal trends of SWEand stream�ow, and the ratio between these metrics, will also assessed using the Mann-KendallTrend test. These �ndings suggest that changing climatic conditions are beginning to provokeshifts in hydrological patterns in the HB basin, which may in turn impact physiographic, ecologicaland socio-economic characteristics across much of Canada's North, and potentially throughout theArctic Basin.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 16
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1030-1200)Session:50801
Physical Oceanography IGaribaldi B
10:30Circulation, dispersion, and hydrodynamic connectivity over the Scotian Shelf, a nu-merical investigation using a nested-grid ocean circulation modelYi Sui1, Jinyu Sheng1, Kyoko Ohashi1, Yongsheng Wu2, Shiliang Shan11Oceanography Dep. Dalhousie Univeristy2Bedford Institute of OceanographyContact: [email protected]
A nested-grid ocean circulation modelling system is used to simulate circulation and hydrographyover the Scotian shelf. The modelling system consists of a coarse-resolution (1/12o) barotropic stormsurge outer model covering the eastern Canadian shelf, and �ne-resolution (1/16o) baroclinic innermodeling covering the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Scotian Shelf and the Gulf of Marine. This nested-grid modelling system is driven by tides, atmospheric forcing, surface heat and freshwater �uxes,and large-scale oceanic currents speci�ed at model open boundaries. The model performance isassessed by comparing models results with in-situ oceanographic observations and satellite remotesensing data. The simulated near-surface circulation on the Scotian Shelf features two strongcurrents �owing southwestward along the south coast and over the shelf break of the Scotian Shelf,in�uenced signi�cantly by the extension of the bifurcation of the GSL low-salinity waters over theeastern Scotian Shelf. A particle-tracking model is used to track particle movements from hourlysimulated ocean currents. Particle movements are then used to calculate dispersion, retention, andhydrodynamic connectivity of surface waters on the study region. The near-surface dispersion ishigher on the shelf break and lower on the coastal waters and inner shelf regions. The upstream anddownstream retention areas for several sensitive areas on the Scotia Shelf are also examined.
10:45Salinity anomalies in coastal watersRich Pawlowicz1, Frank Millero2, Hiroshi Uchida31University of British Columbia2Rosenstiel School of Marine Science, University of Miami3Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and TechnologyContact: [email protected]
Electrical conductivity/Absolute Salinity relationships in the open ocean vary from place to placebecause the relative chemical composition of "sea salt" changes from place to place. Techniquesto account for these changes are now part of the TEOS-10 seawater standard, incorporated intoa "salinity anomaly". However, in coastal regions, relative chemical composition can also changedue to the in�ow of river salts, and local biogeochmical processes. Numerical modelling of riversalt/seawater mixtures provides some estimates of what might happen. However, actual measure-ments of the salinity anomaly in the Salish Sea and on Line-P provide some surprises.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 17
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1030-1200)Session:50801
Physical Oceanography IGaribaldi B
11:15Dynamics of the Position of the Transition from Freshwater to Salt Water in the St.Lawrence RiverDenis Lefaivre1, Alain D'Astous11Pêches et Océans CanadaContact: [email protected]
St. Lawrence estuary position of fresh water to salt water transition along the navigational channelis presented. Thegeographical position of the vertically well mixed waters of salinity 1 to 10 oscillatesbetween the eastern end of Ile d'Orléans and 35 km downstream. The analysis combines observationsin 2007 of water level and salinity at two tidal gauge stations, Saint-François ile d'Orléans andRocher-Neptune, with continuous salinity record on-board ship le Cabot, as she transits twice aweek from St-John's harbour to the port of Montreal. The two main driving forces, the tides andthe fresh water runo�, drive the salt wedge along paths of similar amplitude. It is a challengeto separate the e�ects. Quanti�cation of the e�ects of the semi-diurnal tides, of the spring-neapsemimonthly oscillation of the tides, of the fresh water and of storm surges on the movement of thesalt wedge will be presented.
11:30Diagnosing the upper ocean 3D circulation from high-resolution observations at asubmesoscale cold �lament in the Lower St. Lawrence EstuaryCédric Chavanne1, Julien Robitaille11UQAR-ISMERContact: [email protected]
Vertical velocities associated with mesoscale O(100 km) and submesoscale O(10 km) processes inthe upper ocean are important for vertical exchanges of heat, salinity, and tracers such as nutrientsand dissolved organic and inorganic carbon, between the surface mixed layer (ML) and the oceaninterior. These vertical velocities are 100 m/day (1 mm/s), and are therefore very di�cult tomeasure directly. Instead, they have often been estimated indirectly from observations of densityand horizontal velocity using the Omega equation, but such estimations require high-resolution insitu observations. A decade ago, a method based on surface quasi-geostrophic (SQG) dynamicswas proposed to diagnose the three-dimensional (3D) motions in the upper ocean from a singlesnapshot of surface buoyancy or height anomalies, combined with a knowledge of the backgroundstrati�cation. However, the resulting diagnoses of vertical velocities were shown to degrade in theML. Recently, a quasi-geostrophic model with a diabatic ML and adiabatic interior (MLQG model)has been developed and tested against high-resolution primitive-equation numerical simulations,yielding an improved diagnosis of vertical velocities in the ML. Here, we compare the diagnoses ofthe upper ocean 3D circulation provided by the SQG and MLQG models against high-resolutionsurface and in situ observations of a submesoscale cold �lament in the Lower St. Lawrence Estuary.Results show that both diagnoses have similar skills for horizontal currents and buoyancy, providedthat buoyancy anomalies below the ML rather than at the surface are used for solving the diagnosticmodels. In contrast, vertical gradients of vertical velocities diagnosed by the MLQG model comparebetter to surface divergence observed by high-frequency radars than those diagnosed by the SQG
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 18
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1030-1200)Session:50801
Physical Oceanography IGaribaldi B
model.11:45
Instability and mixing of zonal jets along an idealized continental shelf break.Louis-Philippe Nadeau1, Alon Stern21ISMER2GFDLContact: [email protected]
The interaction between an Antarctic Circumpolar Current-like channel �ow and an idealized con-tinental shelf break is considered using eddy-permitting simulations of a quasi-geostrophic andprimitive equation model. The experimental setup is motivated by the continental shelf break ofthe West Antarctica Peninsula. Numerical experiments are performed to study the e�ect of thewidth and slope of a zonally-symmetric hyperbolic tangent continental shelf topography. The mainfocus is on the regime where the shelf break width is slightly greater than the eddy scale. In thisregime, a strong baroclinic jet develops on the shelf break due to the locally stabilizing e�ect of thetopographic slope. The magnitude of the velocity of this jet is set at �rst order by the gradient ofthe geostrophic contours. At statistical equilibrium, an aperiodic cycle is observed. Initially, over along stable period, an upper-layer jet develops over the shelf break. Once the vertical shear reachesthe critical condition for baroclinic instability, the jet becomes unstable, drifts away from the shelfbreak, and is replaced by a new jet over the shelf break. The cross-shelf mixing is intrinsically linkedwith the jet drifting, as most of the meridional �ux occurs during this instability period. Investi-gation of the zonal momentum budget reveals that a strong Reynolds stress divergence inversionacross the jet is associated with a drifting event, accelerating one �ank of the jet and deceleratingthe other. The hypothesis that the meridional drift of the shelf break jet may be due to the verticalshear on one �ank of the jet being more baroclinically unstable compared to the other is then testedusing topographic pro�les with variable curvatures.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 19
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1030-1200)Session:20201Observations I
Harmony
10:30The 2014-15 UW-Madison AWS Network Field Season: A Campaign to Divide andConquerDavid Mikolajczyk1, Matthew Lazzara1, Lee Welhouse1, Carol Costanza1, Linda Keller1, GeorgeWeidner11Antarctic Meteorological Research CenterContact: [email protected]
The Automatic Weather Station (AWS) Program at the University of Wisconsin-Madison (UW)has maintained an AWS network on Antarctica since 1980. As of the beginning of the 2014-2015�eld season, the UW AWS network consisted of 61 AWS, out of approximately 120 total on thecontinent. The UW AWS �eld team planned to visit 31 of their 61 AWS, and this presentationdescribes the 2014-15 �eld season activities. The three main goals of the �eld season were: toupgrade instrumentation on select AWS; to install new AWS in West Antarctica; and to removeselect AWS. Field work was completed out of three locations: McMurdo Station, West AntarcticIce Sheet �eld camp (WAIS), and South Pole Station. With �ve personnel working throughout thethree-month-long season, the method of divide and conquer proved to be bene�cial as the team couldcomplete servicing from two locations simultaneously. The only signi�cant shortcoming this �eldseason is a known problem: poor weather. Less-than-ideal weather conditions at WAIS preventedthe �eld team from installing two AWS, although others in the region were serviced. The network-wide servicing helps the AWS network remain a reliable source of meteorological surface data forresearchers, forecasters, and the public. This presentation will also cover some of the research e�ortsongoing at UW. Raw and quality-controlled data are made available online to enhance the e�ortsof scienti�c research topics and curious minds alike.
10:45Fog Occurrence in Hudson Bay RegionAndrew Leung1, William Gough11University of Toronto ScarboroughContact: [email protected]
Fog presents a natural hazard for shipping and aviation in the Hudson Bay region. Flights are oftendelayed or cancelled if fog is present since the airports are less equipped to deal with low visibilityoperations. These �ights often carry fuel, groceries or transporting medivac patients to medicalfacilities. Therefore, cancelled �ights negatively a�ect the health and well-beings of those livingin these communities. Nine communities on the eastern and western shores of Hudson Bay wereselected. Hourly fog occurrences while the airport was in operation were analyzed in annual andseasonal scale. Both fog hours and freezing fog hours were in general decline, with some locationsexperiencing signi�cant decline. Most of the northern locations in this study experienced signi�cantdecline in fog hours while southern locations' decline were not signi�cant. For freezing fog hours,all of the locations in western shore of Hudson Bay faced signi�cant decline while only half of thelocations in eastern shore were found to be declining signi�cantly. The spatial asymmetry betweenthe decline in fog hours and in freezing fog hours suggest that di�erent mechanisms may be atplay. A reduction in freezing fog may be attributed to general warming in the region, lowering the
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 20
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1030-1200)Session:20201Observations I
Harmony
frequency of liquid water droplet frozen to the surface or forming ice crystal in the air. A reductionin fog may be also caused by warmer temperature. Since the vapour pressure of water grows at anexponential rate to higher temperature, relative humidity would be lower even if air temperatureand dew point temperature were raised at the same rate as a result of a warmer surface.
11:00Variable Precipitation Di�erences on Cypress Mountain during SNOW-V10Stephen Berg1, Ronald Stewart1, Paul Joe21University of Manitoba2Environment CanadaContact: [email protected]
Cypress Mountain, 20 km north of downtown Vancouver, BC, is subject to moist onshore �ows fromthe Paci�c Ocean. The �eld experiment SNOW-V10 (Science and Nowcasting Olympic Weatherfor Vancouver 2010) was undertaken on Cypress Mountain from January to April, 2010. Over thecourse of the �eld experiment, precipitation amounts were almost double on the mountain at CypressBowl North (1523 mm at 953 m ASL) compared to values at its base at West Vancouver (798 mmat 168 m ASL). Excess daily precipitation amounts of = 50 mm occurred on three occasions. Onthese days, strong, moist upslope �ows = 10 m/s were commonly present, upward velocities ofprecipitation particles of = 1 m/s were detected by a Micro Rain Radar for = 4 h, most of theprecipitation was rain, and maximum precipitation rates on the mountain (up to 16 mm/h) weremore than double those at its base. When these �ow conditions were not present, daily precipitationdi�erences of = 10 mm occurred or the sign of the di�erences was reversed. Experimental high-resolution GEM-LAM 1-km numerical weather prediction often had di�culty simulating the timingand magnitude of the precipitation.
11:15Optical Rain Gauge - An Alternative to Traditional Rain GaugesWil Marsh11Optical Scienti�c, Inc.Contact: wmarsh@opticalscienti�c.com
Traditionally tipping bucket and weighing type rain gauges are used for the measurement of bothliquid and solid precipitation. Tipping bucket rain gauges are very inexpensive and suitable formany applications. The resolution of tipping bucket rain gauges is typically 0.1 mm accumulation.This resolution is �ne for many applications but more resolution is often desirable. Of course, whenused for solid precipitation measurement heaters must be used with tipping bucket rain gauges.Weighing type rain gauges can be very accurate but are generally expensive and require some typeof antifreeze for use in subzero applications. Evaporation from the weighing type of rain gaugecan also be an issue. A less known type of rain gauge is the optical rain gauge. This type of raingauge has a very high sensitivity, may be used for liquid and solid precipitation, and may be used onocean buoys and ships where tipping buckets and weighing rain gauges are not suitable. The opticalrain gauge o�ers high resolution while at the same time does not require antifreeze maintenanceor oils to reduce evaporation. Since the optical rain gauge optically measures precipitation rate in
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 21
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1030-1200)Session:20201Observations I
Harmony
real time errors such as evaporation, tipping bucket splash, and tipping bucket tip errors are notintroduced. Remote networks of solar powered optical rain gauges may be set up. Data may bestored locally or transmitted by satellite, cellular, or other technology.
11:30Spatial and temporal variability of fuel moisture across a heterogenous landscapeDerek van der Kamp1, Dan Moore11University of British ColumbiaContact: [email protected]
Fuel moisture plays an important role in determining the intensity, behavior, and spatial patternsof forest �res and can vary signi�cantly across a forested landscape. This talk will present a setof observations designed to quantify the spatial patterns of near surface drying potential across arelatively small landscape with signi�cant variability in aspect, slope, and canopy coverage. Weexamine the degree to which drying potential is driven by both above canopy radiation and canopydensity. We measured near-surface temperature and humidity at 25 sites, as well as precipitation,solar radiation, and wind speed, at a subset of these sites. These observations were then used to drivea fuel moisture model that includes sub-components for canopy interception of both precipitationand solar radiation. The modelled time series of fuel moisture for a number of fuel sizes at all siteswere then used to assess variability in drying rates across the landscape, and whether relatively wetand non-burnable areas persist in the landscape during the �re season.
11:45An Assessment of the Global Lightning Dataset (GLD360) over CanadaBob Kochtubajda1, Dennis Dudley2, Herb Winston3, Ryan Lagerquist41Environment Canada, Edmonton, Alberta2Environment Canada, Kelowna, British Columbia3Vaisala, Inc., Boulder, Colorado, USA4University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USAContact: [email protected]
Vaisala's Global Lightning Dataset (GLD360) is a global lightning detection network which waslaunched in September, 2009. The GLD360 uses VLF sensors placed at unspeci�ed locations aroundthe world and detects and reports stroke location (using both time- of-arrival and magnetic-direction�nding methods in combination with a waveform recognition algorithm), peak current and polarity.Archived data for the month of June 2014, provided by Vaisala Inc., are used to assess the GLD360performance relative to the Canadian Lightning Detection Network (CLDN), a precision lightninglocating system. An examination of GLD360 North of 60oN showed that the northern most strokeswere detected NW of Prince Patrick Island in the Arctic Ocean. Clusters of lightning strokes werealso detected in an area between Banks Island and Prince Patrick Island in M'Clure Strait and onBa�n Island. NOAA19 satellite imagery (visible channel) con�rmed lightning activity on June 20,2014 between Victoria Island and King William Island. Performance characteristics (cloud-toground�ash detection and median stroke location) of the GLD360 using the CLDN will be summarizedfor several regions in southern Canada.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 22
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1030-1200)Session:308
Polar Coupled Climate Modeling and Weather PredictionRainbow
10:30Sea Ice State in Version 1 of the Regional Arctic System ModelAndrew Roberts1, Elizabeth Hunke2, Anthony Craig1, Wieslaw Maslowski1, Robert Osinski3, JohnCassano4, Alice DuVivier4, Mimi Hughes4, Bart Nijssen5, Joseph Hamman51Naval Postgraduate School2Los Alamos National Laboratory3Institute of Oceanology of Polish Academy of Sciences4University of Colorado Boulder5University of WashingtonContact: [email protected]
We present the sea ice climate of Version 1.0 of the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM), in-corporating new physics of the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE5). RASM is a high-resolutionfully coupled pan-Arctic model that also includes the Parallel Ocean Program (POP), the WeatherResearch and Forecasting Model (WRF) and Variable In�ltration Capacity (VIC) land model. Themodel domain extends from the North Pole south of 45oN and is con�gured to run at ≈9km reso-lution for the ice and ocean components, coupled to 50km resolution atmosphere and land models.It is able to resolve mesoscale storms interacting with sea ice at super-inertial timescales, runo�into narrow gulfs feeding the Arctic Ocean, and freshwater and heat exchange pathways and stormtracks connecting the Paci�c and Atlantic oceans to the central Arctic. RASM's high resolutionand regionally-constrained solution make it a unique tool for assessing new physics options availablein CICE5, and for comparing model simulations with short-duration sea ice observations in a wayseldom a�orded by internal variability in global Earth System Models. In this work we presentan inter-comparison the Elastic-Viscous-Plastic (EVP) rheology with Elastic-Anisotropic-Plastic(EAP) mechanics. This comparison is conducted in combination with an assessment of the newLevel Melt Pond and Topographic Melt Pond schemes in CICE5, as well as form drag-a�ectedturbulent �ux exchange with the atmosphere and ocean versus a constant roughness length approx-imation, and prognostic salinity as compared the Bitz-Lipscomb vertical sea ice thermodynamics.Our comparisons with ICESat, in-situ buoys and passive microwave derived sea ice products illus-trate that by a number of metrics the important advance in improving the distribution of sea icemass in RASM is the implementation of the Anisotropic rheology. This result is consistent throughthe satellite era, including for extreme extent years of 2007, 2011 and 2012.
10:45Seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice in a dynamical forecast systemMichael Sigmond1, Cathy Reader2, John Fyfe1, Gregory Flato1, Slava Kharin1,William Merry�eld11Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada2University of VictoriaContact: [email protected]
As Arctic seas are becoming more accessible, the socio-economic bene�ts associated with skilfulseasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice cover are becoming increasingly evident. Here we present theforecast skill of Arctic sea ice on pan-Arctic and regional scales in a dynamical forecast system thatincludes interactive atmosphere, ocean and sea ice components. We will present forecast skill for
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 23
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1030-1200)Session:308
Polar Coupled Climate Modeling and Weather PredictionRainbow
sea ice area and ice-free and freeze-up dates. The forecast skill obtained by our system will becompared to estimates of potential predictability.
11:00Numerical Modeling of Summer Arctic Boundary Layer during the Arctic SummerCloud Ocean Study (ASCOS)Yi Jin1, Shouping Wang1, Sasa Gabersek1, David Hebert2, Pamela Posey2, Rick Allard2, JasonNachamkin11Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California2Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, MSContact: [email protected]
A growing body of evidence suggests that the Arctic region is experiencing rapid environmentalchanges. One of the most striking changes is the drastic decrease in multi-year sea ice concentra-tions. The coverage of the multi-year ice now comprises just 10 percent of winter ice cover, downfrom 40 percent 20 years ago. These changes are certain to have serious impacts on the Arcticweather and regional climate. The Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) is one of the mostextensive summer expeditions with concentrated measurements deployed for more than a month(August-September 2008) in the North Atlantic sector of the central Arctic ocean. The detailedobservations provide an opportunity for evaluating model performance in capturing boundary layerstructure over changing sea-ice conditions during the Arctic summer and ultimately improving Arc-tic weather prediction. In this study we examine the impact of the evolving sea ice states on theArctic atmos-pheric conditions using the Navy's regional numerical weather prediction model (Cou-pled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System - COAMPS) driven by the sea ice surfaceconditions predicted by the Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System (ACNFS). ACNFS is a coupledsea ice and ocean model that generates real-time forecasts of ice concentration, ice edge location, icethickness, ice draft and ice drift for all sea ice cov-ered areas in the northern hemisphere (polewardof 40N). These �elds are used by CO-AMPS as the surface boundary condition, which directlymodulates distribution of turbu-lent and radiative surface �uxes. The improved physical parame-terizations in COAMPS are compared with the benchmark simulations and evaluated for the Arcticconditions. Systematic veri�cation of the boundary layer structure over the evolving sea ice withhigh heterogeneity is performed against the Arctic surface observations and data from the ASCOSexperiment.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 24
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1030-1200)Session:308
Polar Coupled Climate Modeling and Weather PredictionRainbow
11:15Simulation of Arctic climate with the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM): Sensi-tivity to atmospheric processesJohn Cassano1, Alice DuVivier1, Mimi Hughes1, Mark Seefeldt1, Andrew Roberts2, Anthony Craig3,Brandon Fisel4, William Gutowski4, Wieslaw Maslowski2, Bart Nijssen5, Robert Osinski31University of Colorado2Naval Postgraduate School3Not Given4Iowa State University5University of WashingtonContact: [email protected]
A new regional Earth system model of the Arctic, the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM),has recently been developed. The initial version of this model includes atmosphere (WRF), ocean(POP), sea ice (CICE), and land (VIC) component models coupled with the NCAR CESM CPL7coupler. The model is con�gured to run on a large pan-Arctic domain that includes all sea icecovered waters in the Northern Hemisphere and all Arctic Ocean draining land areas. Resultsfrom multi-decadal (1979 to present) simulations with RASM will be presented and will focus onthe model climate's sensitivity to atmospheric processes and a comparison of the fully coupledmodel and atmosphere-only simulations. The modeled radiation budget, and sea ice cover, wasfound to be sensitive to the details of the cloud and radiation parameterizations in the atmosphericcomponent (WRF) of RASM, including details of cloud droplet size. Another model sensitivity wasfound in relation to atmosphere-land processes. Care is needed to ensure that decoupling betweenthe atmosphere and land do not occur under strongly stable conditions over land areas in winter.Comparison of RASM near surface climate with that simulated with stand-alone WRF show areasof both improved and degraded results. Improvement in the coupled model climate are related tomore physically realistic representation of coupled processes such as energy transfer from the oceanto the atmosphere through leads in the sea ice during winter. Degraded results come from feedbacksin model component biases, such as atmospheric circulation biases resulting in incorrect local seaice cover that then result in large local atmospheric temperature biases.
11:30ACCIMA: Regional Coupled Modeling of Antarctica for Sea Level Rise StudiesDavid Bromwich1, Lesheng Bai1, Keith Hines1, Changhyun Yoo2, John Klinck3, MichaelDinniman3, David Holland4, Edwin Gerber41Ohio State University2Yonsei University3Old Dominion University4New York UniversityContact: [email protected]
The Atmosphere-ocean Coupling Causing Ice Shelf Melt in Antarctica (ACCIMA) project is study-ing the atmospheric and oceanic processes impacting West Antarctica through coupled atmo-sphere/ocean/ice/land surface modeling. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is an especially important
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 25
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1030-1200)Session:308
Polar Coupled Climate Modeling and Weather PredictionRainbow
region for ice sheet melting and therefore sea level rise. We began with the coupled model systemthat is used for Regional Arctic System Model (RASM). Results are analyzed for a 13-year sim-ulation of a large Southern Hemisphere domain driven by the ERA-Interim Reanalysis and otherforcings for 1999-2012. The simulation has a horizontal resolution of 60 km for the atmosphere andland and 10 km resolution for ocean and sea ice. The 13-year average of the annual-mean sea icearea is well produced in �ve sectors near Antarctica. The annual cycle of sea ice area, however, islarger in the simulation than that of observed Antarctic sea ice. Furthermore, there is a gradualdrift towards sea ice loss during the simulation which may be related to the absence of ice shelves.We have begun simulations of the coupled Antarctic system with the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport modeling system (COAWST) model. COAWST includes the RegionalOcean Modeling System (ROMS) that includes ice shelves, rather than the Parallel Ocean Program(POP) employed by RASM which does not. COAWST can be applied to especially high resolutioncoastal applications. This should be an ideal model for studying the processes at sensitive locationssuch as the Amundsen Sea where heat �ux in the ocean can melt ice shelves adjacent to the glaciersof West Antarctica. This process can accelerate the loss of ice from these glaciers.
11:45Validation of near-surface variables simulated by Polar WRF over West AntarcticaPranab Deb1, Andrew Orr1, Scott Hosking1, John Turner11British Antarctic SurveyContact: [email protected]
It is well known that West Antarctica is a critical component of the global climate system, but themodelling and validation of surface meteorological conditions over the West Antarctic are limited. Inthis study the authors try to set up a high resolution nested Polar Weather research and Forecasting(PWRF) mesoscale model, with resolutions of 45-15-5km, to simulate surface conditions duringa summer (January) and a winter (July) month. The set up includes one high resolution nest(5km) over the complex terrains of Pine Island Glacier region (PIG) and another high resolutionnest (5km) over inland stations. The model results are validated against observations from fourAutomatic Weather Stations (AWS) - two stations within the PIG nest and two within the inlandnest. The model accurately simulates the surface pressure during both summer and winter months.The simulation of wind and surface air temperature (SAT) is poorer over the coastal stations, owingto the complex terrains of the coastal region. Wind is underestimated over most of the stations,which could be caused by unrealistically high surface roughness in PWRF. Summer month SATshows an exaggerated diurnal cycle during summer, which is most likely related to the challenges insimulating cloud. The model shows good skill in simulating low pressure systems over the coastalstations, with associated peaks in wind and SAT. The study also investigates the sensitivity ofmodel performance to surface boundary conditions, viz., sea ice, SST and topography. Inclusion ofrealistic high resolution sea ice and SST improves the bias and RMSE during the winter months.Introduction of better quality Bedmap2 topography data improves the simulation of wind and SATduring both summer and winter months, especially over the coastal stations.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 26
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1030-1200)Session:700
Education Outreach and General InterdisciplinarySpearhead
10:30COMET's 25 Years of Education and Training: Where We've Been and Where We'reGoingWendy Schreiber-Abshire1, Bryan Guarente1, Tsvet Ross-Lazarov11UCARContact: [email protected] COMET Program was founded in December, 1989 to serve as a training resource for weatherforecasters during the modernization of the National Weather Service (NWS). COMET is fundedin part by a cooperative agreement between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) and the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). Funding for the pro-gram now comes from many agencies, including NOAA, Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC),the U.S. Navy, and the WMO. COMET distance learning (DL) materials are freely accessible byusers worldwide via our MetEd website (www.meted.ucar.edu). Throughout its history, COMEThas had three primary sub-programs: a residence classroom program, a DL program, and an out-reach program that funds small applied research grants. The residence program has courses rangingfrom mesoscale analysis and prediction to satellite meteorology to climate variability and change,and hydrometeorology. COMET has o�ered residence courses in winter weather and mountainweather for MSC, the NWS, and international forecasters, the latter course in preparation for the2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver. The 2014 o�ering of the winter weather course focused onadvanced skills in winter forecasting and satellite interpretation. COMET was at the forefrontof converting residence course experiences to virtual courses taught live at a distance. This cost-e�ective approach has saved our sponsors' limited training funds by eliminating student travelexpenses. Early on, COMET education and training targeted several thousand forecasters in theUnited States and Canada, a population that could not be adequately served by residence instruc-tion. COMET's cornerstone program was DL, which has experienced incredible growth since itsinception. COMET DL engages large student populations in a consistent and cost-e�ective manner,utilizing innovative instructional design, sound science, state-of-the-art graphics and scenario-basedlearning. Initially COMET DL was published on laser discs, then CD-ROM, and �nally Web-basedtraining. To date, COMET has produced over 750 hours of DL in various topic areas, and addsabout 50 hours per year, available to 400,000 registered MetEd users. Since 2007, COMET hasdelivered 1.8 million hours of online learning sessions. COMET's DL o�erings have expanded to in-clude self-directed lessons and courses, recorded lectures, facilitated courses, webinars and learningand media object resources. A variety of topics are treated, ranging from aviation weather, cli-mate variability and change, winter weather, hydrology, satellite meteorology and NWP. MSC hassupported development of DL materials on topics such as winter weather, arctic meteorology, andsatellite feature identi�cation. Winter Weather training materials are now primarily accessible viathat topic area on MetEd. The COMET Program has sta� of 24, consisting of scientists, instruc-tional designers, graphic artists and multimedia developers, who team to produce award-winningeducation and training. The NWS Training Division, MSC, and other agencies also provide scien-tists who work at COMET in Boulder and/or lend their expertise to training development. COMETis internationally recognized for its education and training. As COMET enters its second quartercentury, we will continue to build toward the future by expanding our distance learning o�erings
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 27
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1030-1200)Session:700
Education Outreach and General InterdisciplinarySpearhead
while exploiting new advances in educational technology. To maintain relevancy, it is anticipatedthat COMET will evolve from a primary focus on production of distance learning modules andcourses to providing support services needed to qualify, certify and assure competency-based ed-ucation and training outcomes. These include reusable/searchable learning elements, accreditedcontent, competency assessment tools, simulations, faculty/facilitator support tools, instructionaldesign support, graphics and media services. The cornerstone will be a UCAR Center for GeoscienceWorkforce Competency targeted at geoscience workforce development.
10:45E�ects of Spatial and Temporal Averaging on Surface IrradianceGerald Lohmann1, Adam Monahan21University of Oldenburg2University of VictoriaContact: [email protected]
Two recent �eld campaigns (in Juelich, Germany and Melpitz, Germany) deployed an array ofabout 100 pyranometers to characterize the spatial and temporal structure of surface irradiance.These sensors recorded surface irradiance with a frequency of 10 Hz. Using these data, we haveassessed the e�ects of temporal and spatial averaging on the global horizontal irradiance and clearsky index (the ratio between the measured irradiance and its theoretical, cloud-free value) with aparticular focus on the implications for decentralized photovoltaic (PV) power generation. In thispresentation, we will demonstrate that while 10 Hz measurements are not necessary to characterizevariability in surface irradiance, the commonly-used 1-min to 10-min averaging periods substan-tially underestimate this variability. This underestimate is particularly pronounced for the frequenthigh-magnitude, short-term irradiance �uctuations known to induce variations of voltage and fre-quency in electrical distribution grids. As well, we will demonstrate how the spatial autocorrelationstructure of irradiance varies with di�erent prevailing sky conditions (as measured by 15-minutemeans and standard deviations of the clear sky index).
11:00CoCoRaHS Canada UpdateRick Fleetwood11Environment Canada MSCContact: rick.�[email protected]
CoCoRaHS (Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow) network is a not-for- pro�t volunteerbased precipitation monitoring network that was developed by the Colorado State Climate Center in1998 following a major �ood. Since that time the network has expanded to all US states and in late2011 was expanded into Manitoba to help �ood forecasters and others establish better monitoringof rainfall, snowfall and snow pack changes through high quality, daily, manual measurements. Asthe MSC's lead on the CoCoRaHS Canada initiative, I will provide an overview of the network andits expansion since 2011, measurement equipment/procedures and the type of data that is availablethrough the CoCoRaHS Canada web site. We'll look at Environment Canada's role and work doneso far in supporting the expansion of this network along with the various provincial and private
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 28
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1030-1200)Session:700
Education Outreach and General InterdisciplinarySpearhead
sector partners and how it is helping the MSC meet the need to improve precipitation (especiallysnowfall and snow cover) monitoring across the country. The presentation will include some goodexamples of how this new data is being used by the MSC and others with a look ahead at futurework to further incorporate this new data source into the MSC's products and services.
11:15Proposal to Eliminate Di�EQ as Requirement for a Bachelors in Atmospheric ScienceRoland Stull11UBCContact: [email protected]
Almost all Meteorology/Atmospheric-Science (ATSC) Bachelors (BSc) graduates in industry andEnvironment Canada (EC) never use di�erential equations (Di�EQ) after they graduate. By not re-quiring Di�EQ courses for the ATSC BSc degree, universities can o�er more hard-core meteorologysubjects earlier in the program, and can o�er more courses in team-building, communication, andcomputer skills before hitting the credit limit (120 credits at UBC) for a non-honours BSc degree.Two tracks thru the ATSC undergrad program are recommended: (1) job track, for meteorolo-gists not planning to go on to grad school; and (2) grad-school track for those who are. Job-trackstudents would skip the Di�Eq courses, and would take upper-level, algebra-based Physics andATSC courses. Grad-school track students would take a course sequence similar to most existingCanadian ATSC programs, which includes Di�EQ. A two-track degree program will be presented.The non-Di�EQ option is viable because one can use algebra and trig to teach very high-level,math-based, ATSC courses in dynamics, synoptics, physics, climate-change, and most other ATSCtopics. Vorticity tendency, radar dBZ, frontogenesis, omega equation, thermal- wind relationship,and Q-vectors are just a few examples that will be presented. Pros: Algebraic equations have thesame physics, terms, units, quantitative rigor, interpretation and application as the Di�EQ, andallows easy computation using �nite di�erences. Con: Cannot derive many of the eqs., so mustpresent them as a fait accompli. . It is proposed to open discussion to request a policy changeby EC on the quali�cations they require for entrance into the Meteorologist program. Environ-mental consulting companies, utility companies, news media, and other employers of BSc-degreedmeteorologists should participate in this dialog with universities.
11:30Assessing the Impacts on Aviation by Analyzing Historical Surface Wind Patterns inNorthern Quebec and Labrador CommunitiesAndrew Leung1, William Gough1, Ken Butler11University of Toronto ScarboroughContact: [email protected]
Many communities in northern Quebec and Labrador are not connected by road. While a reduc-tion of sea ice in Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait allows more opportunities for sealift in summer,in many cases air travel remains the only year-around transportation method that connects thesecommunities with other cities. Passengers and perishable food must continue to rely on aircraft �y-ing into these communities regardless of the availability of sealift. Using airport's weather stations
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 29
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1030-1200)Session:700
Education Outreach and General InterdisciplinarySpearhead
and R software's circular package, we constructed the historical trends of daily wind directions andwind speed (1971 to 2010) at these locations. We found that a number of airports experienced asigni�cant change in wind direction and some airports' runways are not aligned with the predomi-nant wind direction. Limited by the amount of �at land and high construction cost, building a newrunway is often not an option. Thus, planes are forced to take o� and land with crosswind, a lessthan ideal condition in the crucial stage of a �ight. As climate change causes higher wind speed inthe region, this elevates the risk where accidents and crashes are most likely to occur.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 30
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1030-1200)Session:20301
Numerical Weather Prediction IWedgemont
10:30Real-time Numerical Weather Forecasts for Arctic Research Flights with Polar WRFKeith Hines1, David Bromwich1, Lesheng Bai1, Sheng-Hung Wang11Ohio State UniversityContact: [email protected]
The polar-optimized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar WRF) hasbeen upgraded to version 3.6.1 of WRF. Among recent applications for Polar WRF is real-timeforecasting for the Arctic in support of research aircraft �ights. During September-October 2014,NASA performed C-130 �ights out of Eielson Air Force Base near Fairbanks, AK for the ArcticRadiation- IceBridge Sea and Ice Experiment (ARISE) project. The Polar Meteorology Group(PMG) of Ohio State University's Byrd Polar Research and Climate Center set up an experimentalforecasting system with web-available forecasts to support the ARISE �ights. The PMG's primaryinterest in ARISE is exploring the quality of Polar WRF forecasts of polar clouds. Extensive low-level clouds were present during the ARISE �ights over open water and sea ice in the Arctic Ocean.As a complement to this study, Polar WRF v3.6.1 runs are used to study simulated Arctic cloudsin comparison to observations of the August-September 2008 Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study(ASCOS). That research project included aircraft �ights in the North Atlantic sector of the ArcticOcean. Preliminary analysis shows that low-level water clouds are too extensively simulated duringthe second half of the ASCOS �eld program. Furthermore, based upon the experience gained fromearlier ARISE forecasts, real-time forecasts were performed for the October-November 2014 PolarWinds project managed by NASA and Simpson Weather Associates. The Polar Winds project usedDoppler Lidar on UC-12B �ights to study Arctic mesoscale phenomena. An example is the tip jetsnear the southern apex of Greenland. On October 31 and November 11, Polar WRF successfullyforecast the low-level wind maximum near Cape Farewell. The UC-12B �ight on October 31 wasable to reach Southern Greenland and sample the tip jet.
10:45Assessment of numerical weather prediction for the Antarctic Peninsula using the UKMet O�ce Uni�ed Model and AMPSAndrew Orr1, Amelie Kirchgaessner1, John King1, Mark Weeks2, Alan Gadian31British Antarctic Survey2UK Met O�ce3University of LeedsContact: [email protected]
In support of aircraft operations during the month long OFCAP (Orographic Flows and the Climateof the Antarctic Peninsula) �eld campaign during 2011, the UK Met O�ce Uni�ed Model wassetup over the northern portion of the Antarctic Peninsula to provide real-time short-term high-resolution numerical weather prediction weather forecasts. In this study, the simulated 12-36 hrmodel output from the Uni�ed Model at 4-km-resolution and from AMPS (Antarctic MesoscalePrediction System) at 4.5-km-resolution is compared to 3hourly observational data from 1 mannedstation and 7 AWSs. Results are shown comparing the model output to surface observations ofpressure, wind speed and direction, temperature, and humidity. Both statistics (bias, root-mean-
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 31
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1030-1200)Session:20301
Numerical Weather Prediction IWedgemont
square-error, correlation) and monthly time-series of the model performance are presented. It isapparent that the forecast skill of the Uni�ed Model and AMPS (in terms of bias, root-mean-squareerror, and correlation) is broadly similar. Of particular note is that both models are able to broadlycapture the occurrence of foehn wind events over the Larsen C ice shelf, but have signi�cant coldbiases in the simulation of near-surface temperature. In addition, the AMPS model has quite largeerrors in the simulation of wind direction.
11:00Predicting local climate changes due to reservoir impoundment using WRFJe� Lundgren1, Andres Soux1, Christian Reuten1, Marco Wong1, Laura Dailyde1, Al Strang21RWDI2BC HydroContact: je�[email protected]
The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) was used to predict changes in local climateand meteorology due to the creation of an 80 km long reservoir resulting from the proposed Site Chydroelectric project in northern British Columbia. The WRF model was applied in 12 km, 4 kmand 1 km nested con�gurations, with two separate 1-way nests to 1 km to simulate the river valleyin its present state without the reservoir and the future case with the valley �ooded, respectively.The reservoir was incorporated into the future case by adjusting the terrain elevation and landuse inputs for WRF to re�ect the changes that would result from the �ooding of the valley. Thesurface condition of the reservoir was calculated by a separate o�ine model and the daily averagetemperature and ice cover were incorporated into the WRF input stream. E�ects on local climatewere assessed by comparing the di�erences between the present and future cases for a model thatwas considered to be both hydrologically and climatologically representative of normal conditions.The future case impact on climate was assessed in terms of impact on standard meteorologicalparameters such temperature, wind speed and precipitation. To support the climate assessment,a network of eight meteorological stations were installed to establish existing conditions and tomonitor changes as the reservoir is built. Data from these stations was used for model evaluationand the network will remain in place to monitor long term changes. A novel Bayesian analysiswas applied to determine signi�cance of model prediction compared to natural variability. Resultsshow that changes to local climate greater than natural variability will be limited to within a fewkilometers of the water surface.
11:15Upcoming changes to the Canadian Global Deterministic Prediction SystemRonald McTaggart-Cowan1, Claude Girard1, Abdesammad Qaddouri11Environment Canada, RPNContact: [email protected]
A new version of the Global Deterministic Prediction System will be implemented at the CanadianMeteorological Centre in the Fall of 2015. This system contains some important improvements tothe Global Environmental Multiscale model, which will be described in this talk. The horizontalmodel grid has been changed from global lat/lon to a "Yin-Yang" grid that consists of two overlap-
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 32
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1030-1200)Session:20301
Numerical Weather Prediction IWedgemont
ping limited area model domains that communicate with each other in overlapping regions. Thisgrid con�guration has the advantage of eliminating numerical poles and has important scalabilityattributes that will allow future implementations to run with higher horizontal resolutions. Inaddition to the grid change, an inconsistency in the dynamical core of the model has been elimi-nated, with positive results not only in idealized slab simulations of mountain waves, but also in theglobal circulation of the 3D numerical model. The source of this inconsistency and its resolutionwill be discussed, along with an overview of the other components of the upcoming global modelupgrade.
11:30Avalanche forecasting with high resolution NWP dataSimon Horton1, Michael Schirmer1, Bruce Jamieson11University of CalgaryContact: [email protected]
Avalanche forecasters track the distribution critical snowpack layers because they cause destructiveslab avalanches. Layers of buried hoar frost are a common concern, and have complex distributionsdue to meteorological interactions with topography. Knowledge of the load on top of these layers isalso crucial. Canadian forecasters primarily rely on sparse manual observations to track these layers.Recently, snow cover properties have been simulated with data from numerical weather predictionmodels. We investigate the possibility of using the High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System(GEM-LAM) to map the distribution of hazardous hoar frost layers. The quality of winter forecastsin complex terrain was investigated by verifying spatial patterns at nine stations in Glacier NationalPark, British Columbia and by verifying precipitation amounts at over 100 stations in westernCanada and northwestern US. We found GEMLAM resolved spatial structures roughly 20 km widein Glacier National Park. Although the topography was smoothened, major di�erences betweenelevation bands such as lapse rates, inversions, drying air, and stronger winds were adequatelyresolved. GEM-LAM underestimated precipitation amounts, although low precipitation categorieswere overestimated. Quality measures were substantially lower than values published for �atterterrain in the summer. GEM-LAM forecasts were used to model the snow cover in Glacier NationalPark with the Swiss model SNOWPACK. Modelled hoar frost layers were mapped and veri�ed with�eld surveys. The general distribution of layers across elevation bands in di�erent drainages wasresolved, and could help avalanche forecasters downscale their forecasts. An operational tool basedon this resear.
11:45An Integrated Urban High-Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction System dedi-cated to the 2015 Pan-American Games in TorontoSylvie Leroyer1, Stephane Belair1, Lubos Spacek1, Anna-Belle Filion1, Barbara Winter11EC Meteorological Reasearch DivisionContact: [email protected]
A Sub-kilometer atmospheric modeling system with grid-spacings of 1 km and 250 m and includingurban processes is currently being developed at the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) in
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 33
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1030-1200)Session:20301
Numerical Weather Prediction IWedgemont
order to provide more accurate weather forecasts at the city scale. A real-time forecasting systemhas been designed over the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and has provided forecasts for the lastyear, including new thermal comfort indices. Surface physical processes are represented with theTown Energy Balance (TEB) model for the built-up covers and with the Interactions between theSurface, Biosphere, and Atmosphere (ISBA) land surface model for the natural covers. Surfacetemperatures for the Great Lakes are prescribed using 2-km hourly output from an ocean model.This system is devoted to help issuing alerts during the Pan-American and para-Pan-Americangames in Toronto during July and August 2015 (Panam TO2015). In this study, results fromdi�erent weather conditions forecasted with this new system over the GTA will be presented. Astypical summertime features, the region is concerned with localized heavy rainfall, complex lake-breezes �ows, and with human discomfort during heat waves. Results will be confronted againstobservations gathered with the dense surface and atmospheric PanAm Observational network, aswell as with traditional EC network.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 34
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1330-1500)Session:30402
Climate Change and Extreme Events IIFitzsimmons
13:30Variability and change in Storm Track characteristics over Canada from Regional Cli-mate Model PerspectiveEmmanuel D. Poan1, Philippe Gachon2, Rabah Aider3, Guillaume Dueymes2, René Laprise21ESCR-UQAM2ESCER-UQAM3Environnement CanadaContact: [email protected]
Under a changing climate, severe weather event characteristics such as intensity and occurrenceare expected to increase as well as the related socio-economical damages. Over Northern America,major storms can account for these extreme events and therefore, there is a crucial need to betterunderstand their characteristics and their plausible future change. Likewise any synoptic to in-traseasonal feature, storm dynamics involves an interrelation between large-scale and regional-scalephysical processes. As a consequence, they are hardly captured and described by Global ClimateModels (GCMs) which have a coarser resolution to correctly handle these phenomena. Hence, themain objective of this study is to improve our understanding of the regional features of stormchanges and the links between storm activities and the evolution of key atmospheric variables usingbetter resolved models namely Regional Climate Models (RCMs). This study is part of the recentCNRCWP (Canadian Network for Regional Climate and Weather Processes) project, coordinatedby UQAM/ESCER in collaboration with Environment Canada. Firstly, the performance of RCMsis evaluated against reanalysis over the recent past climate (1961-2009). Both Canadian current 2RCMs (CRCM5 and CanRCM4) are analyzed through storm parameters such as occurrence, dura-tion or moving speed, re-generation and intensity. Furthermore, these historical- RCMs simulatedcyclones are compared with the future (i.e. 2041-2070) weather storms derived from RCMs driven bythe global model CanESM2 (Canadian Earth System Model version two of CCCma/EnvironmentCanada). The mid-tropospheric circulation is invoked to explain the so derived changes. Thestudy �nally investigates the implications of such storm characteristics changes on precipitationand temperature regimes over Canadian regions where substantial changes are anticipated.
13:45Evaluation of maximum precipitation changes and precipitable water from RegionalClimate Models over Canadian watershedsDominique Paquin1, Anne Frigon1, Jacinthe Clavet-Gaumont11OuranosContact: [email protected]
In the context of climate change and projected increases in heavy precipitation in many regions ofthe globe, and notably in North America, the question of probable maximum precipitation (PMP)and probable maximum �ood (PMF) in a non-stationary climate is a growing issue for dam safety.An essential component entering into the empirical estimation of PMP is the atmospheric total col-umn water vapor (precipitable water, PW). Recently, the idea of computing PMPs using RegionalClimate Model (RCM) output, including PW, has emerged and some climate change studies areunderway. Amongst such studies is a project involving climatologists and hydrologists, which is
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 35
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1330-1500)Session:30402
Climate Change and Extreme Events IIFitzsimmons
based on data from an ensemble of runs performed with the Canadian RCM (CRCM4) at Oura-nos and from the NARCCAP (North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program),focussing on �ve Canadian basins (located in Manitoba, Ontario and Québec). In this talk, theProbable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) and Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) under ChangingClimate Conditions project will be presented, along with some results, including the evaluation ofthe CRCM's maximum precipitable water against NVAP-M observations and the projected changesof maximum annual precipitation for di�erent durations (1 to 5 days) from RCM (CRCM4, NAR-CCAP) and GCM (CMIP3, CMIP5) simulations.
14:00The impact of atmospheric blocking on extreme winter minimum temperatures inNorth AmericaKirien Whan1, Francis Zwiers11The Paci�c Climate Impacts Consortium, The University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia,CanadaContact: [email protected] events have large impacts on both human and natural systems. It is important to under-stand the relationship between large-scale circulation regimes and climate extremes and how wellthese relationships are simulated by regional climate models (RCMs). Atmospheric blocking in thenorth-east Paci�c is associated with cold winter minimum temperature extremes over most of NorthAmerica. Stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions (GEV) were �ttedto the winter monthly minima of minimum temperature. Blocking frequency (BF) has a signi�-cant in�uence over the majority of the continent. Observed and reanalysis products (ERA-Interim,NARR) agree on the regions under the in�uence of blocking. The inclusion of BF as covariateon the location parameter signi�cantly improves model �t in a region stretching south-east fromBritish Columbia towards the Gulf of Mexico. There is a second region where the inclusion ofBF as a covariate on the scale parameter signi�cantly improves model �t in the south-west UnitedStates. The magnitude of the location parameter is up to 6C warmer in the reanalysis productscompared to observations. The scale parameter is consistent between observations and reanalysisproducts in both regions. A 20% increase in BF is associated with up to a 5C decrease in TNn,while the in�uence of BF on the scale parameter is smaller. In the south-west a 20% increase in BFis assocaited with an average 1C increase in both the location and scale parameters TNn. Theseobservationally-based results are compared with RCMs (CanRCM4, CRCM5, HIRHAM5, RCA4)using boundary conditions derived from ERA-Interim. CRCM5 and HIRHAM5 reproduce the pat-tern of blocking in�uence best compared to observationally-based data sets. CanRCM4 capturesthe in�uence of blocking in British Columbia and the north-west United States but the extensionof in�uence into the southern United States is not evident. The magnitude of blocking in�uence isconsistent with observations.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 36
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1330-1500)Session:30402
Climate Change and Extreme Events IIFitzsimmons
14:15Long Term Climate Records Generator and Data Base for CanadaBill Richards1, Rick Fleetwood21Retired EC MSC private contractor2Environment CanadaContact: rick.�[email protected]
Abstract In Canada it seems that record-breaking weather occurs somewhere almost every day.When it occurs there is a thirst for information about the extremes. Has a new record been set?What was the previous extreme and when did it occur? These questions are posed to MSC personnelroutinely. While the questions seem simple, the process of obtaining the answer from the nationalarchive of climate observations is not. To address this, we developed a data base of long term dailytemperature and precipitation for about 800 locations across Canada by threading together thedata from proximate stations. Each location corresponds to the centroid of the city pages used byweather.gc.ca. We developed a standardized algorithm to create drafts of each thread. A currentlyactive station was used as the starting point. This was followed back as far as possible using thebest data for that station. A search was then conducted to choose candidates to extend the threadback as far in time as possible. Each thread was then veri�ed by regional experts. Web basedrecords generator software identi�es new daily extremes using present weather and presents viewsof extremes in several con�gurations. The next step is to create a similar data base of long-termmonthly data.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 37
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1330-1500)Session:705
Innovation through Integration: Collaborative Science Policy and Environmental Management atHigh Latitudes
Garibaldi A
13:30Quantifying the water budget of Coles Lake, Northeastern British ColumbiaSina Abadzadesahraei1, Stephen Déry1, John Rex11University of Northern British ColumbiaContact: [email protected] research has repeatedly identi�ed strong associations between anthropogenic emissions ofso-called 'greenhouses gases' and observed increases of global mean surface air temperature over thepast century. Studies have also demonstrated that the degree of warming varies regionally. Canadais not exempt from this situation, and evidence is mounting that climate change is beginning tocause diverse impacts in both environmental and socio-economic spheres of interest. For example,north-eastern British Columbia (BC), whose climate is controlled by a combination of maritime,continental and arctic in�uences, is warming at a greater rate than the remainder of the province.There are indications that these changing conditions are already leading to shifting patterns in theregion's hydrological cycle, and thus its available water resources. Within this context, north-easternBC is undergoing rapid development for oil and gas extraction: this depends largely on subsurfacehydraulic fracturing ('fracking'), which uses enormous volumes of freshwater. While this industrialactivity has made substantial contributions to regional and provincial economies, it is importantto ensure that su�cient and sustainable water supplies are available for all those dependent on theresource, including ecological systems. This in turn demands comprehensive understanding of howwater in all its forms interacts with landscapes and the atmosphere, and of the potential impacts ofchanging climatic conditions on these processes. The aim of this study was therefore to characterizeand quantify the components of the water budget in the small watershed of Coles Lake (141.8 km2,100 km north of Fort Nelson), through a combination of �eldwork, observational data analysis,and numerical modelling. Baseline information generated in this way will support assessment ofthe sustainability of current and future plans for freshwater extraction in the basin, and help tomaintain the precarious balance between economic and environmental well-being.
13:45The practice of producing and consuming �ood warning information: an ethnographicexploration of working and living the weatherJennifer Spinney11Not GivenContact: [email protected]
Canada has experienced an increased incidence of �ash �oods recently and the probability of greaterfrequency is likely given our changing climate and the growing rates of urbanization. At presentno formal mechanism exists in Ontario to provide the public with advanced warning of �ash �oodrisk. Environment Canada (EC) embeds �ood risk information in their severe thunderstorm warn-ings while conservation authorities focus their �ood messages on risks to watershed crossings; thus,neither group is mandated to produce urban or �ash �ood information for Ontario residents. In-spired by the July 8, 2013 �ash �ood in the Greater Toronto Area, this presentation will highlightinitial �ndings from my doctoral research project, which examines the process of urban, �ash �oodcommunication in southwestern Ontario. The presentation will brie�y describe the methodology
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 38
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1330-1500)Session:705
Innovation through Integration: Collaborative Science Policy and Environmental Management atHigh Latitudes
Garibaldi A
employed in this collaborative research undertaking with EC and the Toronto and Region Conser-vation Authority, and will focus mostly on the institutional processes in�uencing the creation ofo�cial �ood information for the public; how information travels and is transformed along multi-ple communication channels, especially those of public news agencies and social media; and howa�ected Ontarians make sense of and respond to �ood information.
14:00Extremes, Remoteness and Adaptation in the ArcticAmanda Lynch1, Siri Veland11Brown UniversityContact: [email protected]
Human societies have become a geologic agent of change, and with this is an increasing awarenessof the environment risks that confront human activities and values. More frequent and extremehydroclimate events, anomalous tropical cyclone seasons, heat waves and droughts have all beendocumented, and many rigorously attributed to fossil fuel emissions. These extremes, however, donot register themselves in the abstract - they occur in particular places, a�ecting particular popula-tions and ecosystems. This can be considered to present a policy window to decrease vulnerabilityand enhance emergency management. However, the asymmetrical character of these events maylead some to treat remote areas or disenfranchised populations - such as the Arctic - as capableof absorbing the environmental damage attributable to the collective behavior of those residingin wealthy, populous, industrialized societies. Sound policies for adaptation to changing extremesmust take into account the multiple interests and resource constraints for the populations a�ectedand their broader contexts. Minimizing vulnerability to weather extremes is only one of manyinterests in human societies, and as noted, this interest competes with the others for limited time,attention, funds and other resources. Progress in reducing vulnerability also depends on policy thatintegrates the best available local and scienti�c knowledge and experience elsewhere. This improvesthe chance that each policy will succeed, but there are no guarantees. Each policy must be rec-ognized as a matter of trial and error to some extent; surprises are inevitable. Thus each policyshould be designed to fail gracefully if it fails, to learn from the experience, and to leave resourcessu�cient to implement the lessons learned. Overall policy processes must be quasi-evolutionary,avoiding replication without modi�cation of failed policies and building on the successes.
14:15A proposal for international scienti�c collaboration at the North PolePaul LeBlond11Not GivenContact: [email protected]
The North Pole � the intersection of the Earth's spin axis with the surface of the planet � is not a�xed point: it drifts about because of a wobble related to the oblateness of the planet and because ofmass redistributions which a�ect its moment of inertia. While such polar wanderings are relativelysmall, they greatly complicate claims to ownership of the North Pole, as recently expressed bysome Arctic countries. I will discuss a proposal for international scienti�c collaboration within a
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 39
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1330-1500)Session:705
Innovation through Integration: Collaborative Science Policy and Environmental Management atHigh Latitudes
Garibaldi A
small polar area as a focus for bene�cial cooperation rather than competition in the Arctic, withoutsigni�cant loss of access to natural resources. Résumé Le Pôle Nord, dé�ni comme l'intersection del'axe de rotation de la plan`ete avec sa surface, n'est pas un point �xe. Sa position varie dû à unenutation associée à l'aplatissement de la plan`ete ainsi qu'aux échanges de masse qui perturbentson moment d'inertie. Malgré leur faible amplitude, ces déplacements compliquent les prétensionsterritoriales exprimées par quelques nations arctiques vis-à-vis le Pôle Nord. Je propose ici unedémarche basée sur une coopération scienti�que internationale au sein d'une aire entourant le pôle,démarche qui éviterait les con�its sans entrave sérieuse à l'acc`es aux ressources naturelles.
14:30The Arctic Observing Summit 2013, 2014, 2016: Progress Towards an Integrated,Multipurpose, International Arctic Observing SystemMaribeth Murray1, Gabriela Ibarguchi1, Peter Schlosser2, Lize Marie van Der Watt3, Vinay Rajdev11ISAC International Program O�ce, Arctic Institute of North America, University of Calgary2Columbia Climate Center at the Earth Institute, Columbia University3Arctic Research Centre, Umea UniversityContact: [email protected]
The biennial Arctic Observing Summit facilitates community-driven, science-based guidance forthe design, implementation, coordination and sustained operation of an international pan-Arcticobserving system. It is a forum for planning and priority-setting that links diverse needs for infor-mation with observing system design, data accessibility, and timely and relevant products useful fordecision making. The AOS is a SAON (Sustaining Arctic Observing Networks) task to identify andpursue activities to improve Arctic observing across the full spectrum Arctic system components.The AOS led by The International Study of Arctic Change (ISAC), a multidisciplinary Arctic en-vironmental change research program. ISAC engages researchers, community members, managers,and others in research planning, implementation, data-sharing and synthesis, and knowledge trans-lation to advance observing and understanding of Arctic change for improved decision making. TheAOS is key to implementation of the observing component of the ISAC Science Plan. The AOSis coordinated by the ISAC Program O�ce, the ISAC Science Steering Group and ISAC partners.In this paper we present results from the AOS 2013 and 2014, and plans for the AOS 2016. Inparticular we discuss ways in which the CMOS/AMS community can engage with the AOS andcontribute to its objectives.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 40
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1330-1500)Session:50802
Physical Oceanography IIGaribaldi B
13:30Damping of Geostrophic Motions by Oceanic Internal Waves, Critically Re�ecting o�the Sea Surface.Nicolas Grisouard1, Leif Thomas21University of Toronto2Stanford UniversityContact: [email protected]
Nowadays, physical oceanographers view density fronts as hotspots for oceanic kinetic energy dissi-pation. Within oceanic fronts, due to the sloping isopycnals and associated thermal wind shear, thepossible directions of the group velocity of inertia-gravity waves(IGWs) depart from the classical StAndrew's cross. However, waves oscillating at the Coriolis frequency, keep one of these directionshorizontal, while the other direction allows for vertical propagation of energy. This implies theexistence of critical re�ections of such inertial waves o� the sea surface, after which incident waveenergy cannot escape. This is analogous to the classical critical re�ection of IGWs in a quiescentmedium o� a sloping bottom. We present a series of numerical experiments exploring parameterspace that highlightproperties of critical (mega = ), forward (. > ), and backward (. < ) re�ections.We also report on irreversible energy exchanges between IGWs and geostrophically-balanced frontal�ows that are enabled by friction and the modi�cation of IGW-physics at fronts. We also showanalytically that this is exacerbated during critical re�ections where intense frictional e�ects underthe surface induce a net transfer of energy from the balanced �ow to ageostrophic motions, whichare subsequently dissipated. Forward re�ections are also favorable to triadic resonant interactionsand therefore to turbulence which is weak in our simulations, but likely to be fully developed underoceanic conditions. The existence of this non-linear �ow activity further increases the extraction ofgeostrophic energy from the front. On the other hand, backward re�ections inhibit such non-linear�ow activity.
14:00A study of a surface trapped elliptical anticyclone at �nite Rossby numberFrancis Poulin1, Eric Bembenek2, Michael Waite11University of Waterloo2McGill UniversityContact: [email protected]
The Oceans are driven predominantly at the surface through winds and solar heating. One modelthat has helped in our understanding of the dynamics of the upper ocean that arise due to buoyancyanomalies is the Surface Quasi-Geostrophic (SQG) model. It is of course limited in to describingmesoscale motions that have small Rossby number and aspect ratio. Numerical simulations of SQGdynamics often reveal an abundance of smaller scale vortices that have length scales that are inthe submesoscale regime. It is well known that SQG dynamics cannot adequately describe thesemotions but it is not entirely clear as to what these motions should actually be doing. In an attemptto better understand what should transpire at the submesoscale where the motion is less balanced,we project a SQG solution into a Primitive Equation (PE) model. In particular, we focus on thesurface trapped elliptical vortex that was presented in Held et al. (1994). We simulate the evolution
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 41
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1330-1500)Session:50802
Physical Oceanography IIGaribaldi B
of this vortical structure for a variety of Rossby numbers. When the Rossby number is su�cientlysmall we of course recover the SQG solution almost identically. However, for the case of largerRossby number we �nd that non-SQG dynamics appear not only at the submesoscale but on thescale of the actual vortex itself. Three signi�cant di�erences are 1) the �laments on the peripheryof the vortex are more stable and need not break up in to eddies 2) the energy spectrum steepensfrom a slope of -5/3 to something closer to -3 and 3) the vertical transport induced it ampli�ed.This work does not detract from the value of the SQG model but instead tries to strengthen it bypointing out a range of parameters where the model is no longer applicable and how the motiondi�ers when it does.
14:15A simple model of ocean dynamics in Nares StraitRenske Gelderloos1, Helen Johnson11University of OxfordContact: [email protected]
The Canadian Arctic Archipelago is one of the two major oceanic gateways between the Arctic andthe Atlantic Ocean. It has been estimated that the �ow through this region currently accounts forabout half of the freshwater transport between these two oceanic basins, its importance potentiallyincreasing with increased melting of sea ice. However, factors such as its complex morphology, harshmeteorological conditions, the remote location and an almost continuous presence of sea ice forma hindrance to understanding the dynamics that force the �ow through this region. In contrast toprevious e�orts which all used realistic model con�gurations, the approach in this study is one of asimple straight channel representing Nares Strait in a 3D primitive equation model. This enablesus to disentangle and quantify the e�ects of barotropic forcing, baroclinic forcing, wind stress, icecover and tides acting to drive or reduce the through�ow or alter its cross-strait structure.
14:45Decadal Trends of Oxygen in the Northeast Paci�c OceanWilliam Crawford1, Angelica Pena11Institute of Ocean SciencesContact: [email protected] measurements in subsurface waters of the Northeast Paci�c since 1949 show decliningoxygen concentrations (O2) after about 1975 to 1985 in all regions, but di�erent trends amongregions in earlier decades. These �ndings are based mainly on O2 on the 26.7 potential density (s.)surface in the region north of 30oN and east of 170oW, with similar trends on other s. surfacesin some locations. On the continental slope, O2 increased at most locations by 10 to 20 µmolkg-1 to about 1975 to 1985, followed by declines of similar magnitude in recent years. Changesin O2 are associated with changes in temperature of opposite sign south of 37oN, but correlationof temperature and oxygen is irregular in more northern locations. At all locations, temperature-related solubility change is a minor cause of these O2 trends. In deep-sea waters, O2 decreased intime with a more rapid decrease from about 1995 to about 2003. At Ocean Station P (OSP, 50oN,145oW) where observations are most continuous, signi�cant linear trends of -0.4 to -0.5 µmol kg-1y-1 are found on the 26.5, 26.7 and 26.9 s. surfaces from 1956 to 2011. In addition, a signi�cant
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 42
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1330-1500)Session:50802
Physical Oceanography IIGaribaldi B
sinusoidal oscillation of period 18.61 years and amplitude 18 µmol kg-1 is found on the 26.9 s.surface at OSP and a station 400 km to the east that �ts reasonably well to the lunar nodal cycle.Phase of this oscillation is identical at both locations. Clear evidence of similar variability did notemerge at other open-ocean locations, nor along the continental slope. These results indicate thatdecadal variability must be accounted for when considering the impact of climate change in thisbasin.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 43
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1330-1500)Session:207
The Changing Arctic AtmosphereHarmony
13:30The interannual variability of the Arctic energy budgetAaron Donohoe11Not GivenContact: [email protected]
Interannual variations in the top of atmosphere energy budget of the Arctic climate system areanalyzed in observations (over the CERES satellite era) and compared to that in couple climatemodels. The absorbed solar radiation (ASR) averaged over the Arctic varies by 6 W m-2 (2s) frommonth and 4 W m-2 from year to year. The variability of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) is halfthe magnitude of that in ASR on both time scales, suggesting that radiative input in to Arctic isdriven by the variability in planetary albedo and only partially balanced by locally emitted radiationwith the residual energy driving changes in ocean heat content, ice melting, and atmospheric energytransport. Ocean heat content data and atmospheric energy �ux calculations (from reanalysisdata) suggest that equal parts of the residual energy go into surface storage and energy exportby the atmosphere. The anomalies in ocean heat content and atmospheric energy transports thatare unrelated to changes in Arctic radiation are comparable in magnitude to radiatively drivenanomalies. This suggests that atmospheric variability that is driven by processes external to theArctic are responsible for as much variability of energy input to the Arctic as are processes local tothe Arctic. Coupled climate models con�rm these results. Anomalies in absorbed solar radiation(ASR) over the Arctic are decomposed into components due to anomalies in atmospheric re�ection(primarily clouds) and surface albedo. At the monthly timescale, anomalies in ASR are primarily(70%) due to cloud changes whereas anomalies in clouds and surface albedo makes comparablecontribution to interannual ASR anomalies averaged over the Arctic. Trends in ASR and OLRover the Arctic are both positive and highly signi�cant with a 3.2 W m(-2) decade(-1) increasein ASR and a smaller magnitude (1.5 W m(-2) decade-1) increase in OLR. Surprisingly, the ASRtrend is entirely associated with changes in a cloud re�ection despite the signi�cant decreases insurface albedo. Despite the decrease in surface albedo, there is a trend toward the surface re�ectingslightly more radiation to space because cloud cover has decreased over Siberia which would lead toenhanced surface re�ection (even if the surface was unchanged). Analysis of the natural variabilityof the Arctic climate system in unperturbed climate simulations suggest that the observed trend inASR over the satellite era is very unlikely (<5% chance) to occur in the absence of external forcing,suggesting that the upward trend in ASR is indicative of anthropogenic climate change.
13:45High Resolution NWP for the Canadian ArcticBanafsheh Afshar1, Greg West1, Rosie Howard1, Henryk Modzelewski1, Roland Stull11UBCContact: [email protected] is increasing in the Canadian North, partly in association with the changing climate.Decreased extent of the Arctic ice cap during past summers has allowed shipping through theNorthwest Passage. Remote communities are served primarily by aviation all year, and by ice roadsin winter. Some of these communities are growing in response to mining of diamonds and other
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 44
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1330-1500)Session:207
The Changing Arctic AtmosphereHarmony
minerals. In support of this commerce, UBC implemented operational high-resolution NWP in theCanadian Arctic starting in Dec 2014. This includes a new WRF-ARW forecast domain (nested 36,12, and 4 km grid spacings) over northern Canada, centered over the Northwest Passage. Animatedweather map products include those useful for shipping, aviation, and survival. In addition, point-forecast meteograms are made for 60 airports in the Canadian North, plus some in Greenland andAlaska. See the forecasts at http://weather.eos.ubc.ca/arctic/ .
14:00Trace gas measurements at two Arctic sites using infrared emission spectroscopy: Fill-ing the polar night knowledge gapSophie Tran1, Zen Mariani1, Kimberly Strong1, Penny Rowe2, Von Walden31Department of Physics, University of Toronto2Department of Geography, University of Idaho, Departamento de Fisica, Universidad de Santiagode Chile3Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Washington State UniversityContact: [email protected]
The Arctic experiences prolonged periods of total darkness in the winter and continuous daylightin the summer, in�uencing the atmosphere and its composition in ways that are still not fully un-derstood. The Canadian Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Change has equipped the Po-lar Environment Atmospheric Research Laboratory (PEARL, Eureka, Nunavut, Canada, 80o05'N,86o42'W) with several spectrometers that measure atmospheric composition. Similarly the U.S. De-partment of Energy has established numerous ground-based observatory facilities around the worldwithin the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program, with one located at the NorthSlope of Alaska (NSA), Barrow, Alaska. At both sites, an Extended-range Atmospheric EmittedRadiance Interferometer (E-AERI), a ground-based Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrom-eter, is used to measure the absolute downwelling infrared emission from the atmosphere between400 and 3000 cm-1. A number of trace gases have emission features in this region, enabling simul-taneous measurements of their total column abundances. The E-AERI has a moderate resolutionof 1 cm-1 and a high sensitivity to the lower troposphere. E-AERI spectra provide informationabout radiative balance, budgets of trace gases, and clouds properties in the Arctic. At PEARL,the instrument was installed in October 2008. A similar instrument, the University of Idaho's PolarAERI (P-AERI) was installed at PEARL from March 2006 to June 2009. Measurements are takenby the E-AERI every seven minutes year-round (P-AERI measurements were made at samplingtimes of ≈30 seconds), including polar night when the solar-viewing spectrometers at PEARL arenot operated. At NSA, the instrument has been operating since February 1998. Both datasets canbe used to �ll in the measurement gap during the Arctic night-time period when less is known aboutatmospheric composition. Total columns of CO, CH4, N2O and O3 have been retrieved from 2006to 2014 (except in 2010) at PEARL and, from 1998 to 2014 at NSA using the new SFIT4 algorithm.These measurements are used to investigate the annual, seasonal and diurnal variabilities of thesefour species in the high Arctic.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 45
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1330-1500)Session:207
The Changing Arctic AtmosphereHarmony
14:15Seasonal di�erences in Arctic N2O throughout the stratosphere to the lower thermo-sphere and its e�ect on stratospheric NO and O3Patrick Sheese1, Kaley A. Walker1, Chris Boone2, Bernd Funke31University of Toronto2University of Waterloo3Instituto de Astro�sica de AndaluciaContact: [email protected]
In the dark polar winter, increases in N2O concentrations in the upper stratosphere and lowermesosphere have been observed and attributed to solar proton events and energetic particle precip-itation. It has been suggested that the N2O production occurs at higher altitudes and descends intothe upper stratosphere, where it can then be converted into NO and play a role in the catalytic de-struction of xO3. This study will present ACE-FTS (Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment - FourierTransform Spectrometer) N2O measurements and climatologies throughout the atmosphere, fromthe stratosphere to the lower thermosphere. From year to year, the Arctic summer ACEFTS N2Omeasurements are fairly consistent. However, the Arctic winter measurements in the middle atmo-sphere are highly dependent on the local dynamics. The ACE-FTS measurements and variationsin the upper stratosphere will be compared to correlative N2O data from the satellite instrumentsMIPAS and MLS. We will investigate the possible sources and sinks of N2O in the middle to upperArctic atmosphere and quantify the e�ect its descent into the stratosphere has on stratospheric NOand O3 concentrations. x.
14:30Simulations of Arctic Aerosols and Climate with CanAMKnut von Salzen1, Maryam Namazi1, Rashed Mahmood2, Jiangnan Li1, Jason Cole1, John Fyfe1,Richard Leaitch3, Sangeeta Sharma3, Lin Huang31Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis CCCma, Environment Canada2School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria3Climate Chemistry Measurements and Research CCMR, Environment CanadaContact: [email protected]
The Arctic climate has undergone rapid changes in recent decades and is widely expected to con-tinue to change in the near future. Aerosols have contributed to multi-decadal Arctic climatevariability in the past and o�er potential opportunities for mitigation actions aimed at reducingArctic warming. In order to facilitate the detection and attribution of climate change in the Arcticand to aid policymakers, improving in modelling capabilities for the Arctic is a key priority foratmospheric physics model development activities at CCCma. This includes the introduction ofan aerosol microphysics scheme in the latest version of the Canadian Atmospheric Global ClimateModel (CanAM4.2). Studies with CanAM4.2 and earlier versions of the model give evidence forconsiderable trends in aerosol concentrations and impacts of aerosols on Arctic temperatures duringrecent decades. Results from these studies and implications for future changes in Arctic climatewill be discussed.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 46
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1330-1500)Session:207
The Changing Arctic AtmosphereHarmony
14:45A Pan-Arctic view of inversion formation and maintenance processesLine Bourdages1, Bruno Tremblay11McGill UniversityContact: [email protected]
The presence of a prevalent surface-based inversion in the Arctic has been shown to play a role inenhancing surface warming, by reducing surface sensible and latent heat �uxes and thus modulatingthe sensitivity of the surface response (e.g. Boé et al. [2009]). Modelling studies (e.g. Boé et al.[2009], Medeiros et al. [2010]) highlighted this phenomenon, by showing that inter-model di�erencesin Arctic climate sensitivity are largely driven by di�erences in inversion strength. Most GlobalClimate Models (GCM) in fact overestimate the strength of the inversion, leading to biases in Arc-tic climate sensitivity and Arctic ampli�cation. Improved knowledge of the observed and projectedchanges of the Arctic surface-based inversion is critical to the understanding of the surface energybalance and Arctic Ampli�cation. In this study, we �rst describe a non-linear relationship betweensea ice thickness and the strength of the inversion, linked to the surface radiative balance. Sec-ondly, we present a Pan-Arctic view of the contributions of surface cooling, subsidence, meridionaltransport of heat, and surface mixing to the strength of the temperature inversion.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 47
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1330-1500)Session:309
Polar Lower-Latitude ConnectionsRainbow
13:30Seamless coupled forecasting across all time scales at the Met O�ce, UK: ocean-iceforecasting, seasonal prediction, climate projections and Earth system modelling.Ed Blockley11Met O�ce, UKContact: ed.blockley@meto�ce.gov.uk
The Met O�ce is the United Kingdom's national weather service and, through the Met O�ceHadley Centre, is at the forefront of climate research in the UK - playing a key role in helpingdetermine the worldwide response to climate change. In order to deliver these services the MetO�ce develops and maintains a fully uni�ed framework of global and regional atmospheric, land,ocean and sea ice prediction systems operating across multiple space and time scales; from short-range forecasting and seasonal prediction through to climate change projections and palaeoclimatesimulations. The Met O�ce coupled modelling framework is based on the Met O�ce Uni�ed Model(UM) atmosphere and JULES land components coupled to the NEMO ocean model and Los Alamossea ice model (CICE) using the OASIS coupler. In addition to these atmosphereocean- ice-land(AOIL) components, there is an increasing requirement to include Earth system complexity inthe coupled modelling framework - which is undertaken by including the UKCA (United KingdomChemistry and Aerosols) model, the MEDUSA (Model of Ecosystem Dynamics, nutrient Utilisation,Sequestration and Acidi�cation) ocean biogeochemistry system and the BISICLES ice sheet model.In this talk the present range of forecasting and prediction systems employed at the Met O�ce isintroduced with a focus on the routine short-range polar forecasts and seasonal prediction of Arcticice extent. Recent developments to the Met O�ce global coupled model con�guration (GC3)are introduced and plans for the development of a new UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) - ajoint collaboration between the Met O�ce and the UK's National Environmental Research Council(NERC) - will be provided. Within the GC3 and UKESM1 con�gurations there are many newfeatures designed to improve prediction at high latitudes - including the introduction of dynamicice sheet modelling and cavities under ice shelves - and these will be discussed. Finally plans forthe use of the UKESM1 and GC3 con�gurations within CMIP6 will be provided.
13:45The Roles of the PDO and ENSO on Regional Antarctic Warming during AustralSpring, 1979-2012Ryan Fogt1, Kyle Clem2
1Ohio University2Victoria University of WellingtonContact: [email protected]
After 1979, statistically signi�cant warming in Antarctica is only observed in austral spring (September-November, SON) across West Antarctica and the Antarctica Peninsula. While previous work haslinked this warming to reductions in sea ice cover, we note that a substantial (30-60%) portion of thewarming is related to changes in the SON atmospheric circulation. In particular, western Antarc-tic Peninsula warming is consistent with increasing pressure in the South Atlantic, while westernWest Antarctica warming is tied to a deepening of the Amundsen Sea low near the eastern Ross
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 48
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1330-1500)Session:309
Polar Lower-Latitude ConnectionsRainbow
Sea. While both of these circulation changes are associated with increased warm, northerly �owtowards the Antarctic continent, they are connected with di�erent aspects of tropical variability.The increase in pressure in the South Atlantic is associated with a trend towards more La Nina-likeconditions in the tropical Paci�c, and an associated Rossby wavetrain. In contrast, the deepeningof the Amundsen Sea low is more strongly tied to a shift in the Paci�c Decadal Oscillation (PDO)towards its negative phase since the 1990s. Compared to typical La Nina events, the recent negativePDO events display a di�erent tropical forcing, which drives a Rossby wavetrain that propagatesmore meridionally across the South Paci�c, culminating in the eastern Ross Sea, rather than in theSouth Atlantic. The results suggest multiple independent forcing mechanisms governing the SONpressure trends and associated Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctica warming after 1979, whichpartially cancel each other out in the Amundsen Sea and portions of eastern West Antarctica.
14:00Exploring the link between human-induced Arctic sea ice loss and cold Eurasian win-tersKelly McCusker1, John Fyfe2, Michael Sigmond21University of Victoria2Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and AnalysisContact: [email protected] Arctic sea ice loss has been implicated in the recent prevalence of anomalously cold wintersin Eurasia. Whether this linkage is a robust feature of anthropogenic sea ice loss, however, remainsan open question because observed sea ice loss is due to a combination of external (human-induced)forcing and internal (random) variability. The interpretation of any warm Arctic-cold Eurasialinkages is further complicated by large wintertime internal variability over midlatitude land inobservations and in atmospheric model simulations that attempt to isolate the response to sea iceloss. Here we execute two large ensembles of simulations in an atmospheric general circulationmodel with prescribed sea ice loss taken from �ve historical simulations in the associated coupledglobal climate model in order to isolate the impact of past human-induced sea ice loss, as distinctfrom observed sea ice loss, on Eurasian temperature. We �nd the average Eurasian temperatureresponse is negligible due to human-induced sea ice loss, however we �nd long periods (120 years)of both average warming and cooling over Eurasia in early winter, linked to geopotential heightanomalies over the Barents-Kara Seas region of the Arctic. This suggests that observed cold wintersare due to some combination of internal variability in the sea ice itself, internal variability in theresponse to human-induced sea ice loss, or external factors.
14:15The Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Atmospheric Responses to Changing ArcticIce Cover in Present-Day CCSM4Catrin Mills1, Elizabeth Cassano1, John Cassano11CIRESContact: [email protected] rapidly diminishing Arctic sea ice cover impacts the overlying atmospheric state throughchanges in moisture and surface energy �uxes, and the spatial extent of this atmospheric response
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 49
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1330-1500)Session:309
Polar Lower-Latitude ConnectionsRainbow
remains unclear and may even reach the mid-latitudes. Synoptic atmospheric responses to surfacesensible heat �ux anomalies over the Arctic Ocean during autumn (SON) in the present-day climate(1974-2005) of NCAR's Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) are investigated.The self-organizing map (SOM) technique is used to characterize important daily running-weekly-mean surface heat �ux anomaly patterns over the Arctic. The importance of the week-to-weekpersistence and spatial extent of the surface heat �ux anomalies in forcing the atmospheric re-sponse is diagnosed by creating composites of atmospheric variables (such as 2-m temperature, sealevel pressure, and geopotential height, temperature, and speci�c humidity at 850, 500, and 300hPa) for each heat �ux pattern identi�ed by the SOM technique. The temporal and spatial evolu-tion of the response of the atmospheric variables associated with the direct forcing from the sea iceloss is characterized from the Arctic to 20oN for each week in autumn, up to 12 weeks, in order toidentify the temporal persistence required to force the remote atmospheric responses.
14:30Paci�c trade wind intensi�cation and the recent prevalence of unusually cold NorthAmerican wintersMichael Sigmond1, John Fyfe11Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment CanadaContact: [email protected]
The slow down in the rate of increase of global mean temperatures in recent years, often referred toas the global warming hiatus, has been attributed in large part to Paci�c trade wind intensi�cation.Recent studies have suggested that such tropical internal climate variability may also explain recentregional temperature trends at higher latitudes, including the recent prevalence of unusually coldNorth American winters. Here we show, using a 100-member ensemble of freely running coupledmodel simulations, two 10-member ensembles of coupled model simulations with prescribed tropicalsurface winds and atmospheric model simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures that, onaverage, the observed Paci�c wind intensi�cation has not lead to a cooling but instead to a warmingof North American winters. These results suggest that the recent cooling of North American wintersare due to a combination of forced and internal climate variability not linked to Paci�c trade windintensi�cation.
14:45Tropical forcing of the recent rapid Arctic warming in northeastern Canada and Green-landQinghua Ding1, John Wallce2, David Battisti2, Eric Steig2, Ailie Gallant3, Hyung-Jin Kim4, LeiGeng21Polar Science Centerl, APL, University of Washington2University of Washington3Monash University4Climate Research Department, APEC Climate CenterContact: [email protected]
Rapid Arctic warming and sea ice reduction in the Arctic Ocean are widely attributed to anthro-
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 50
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1330-1500)Session:309
Polar Lower-Latitude ConnectionsRainbow
pogenic climate change. The Arctic warming exceeds the global average warming due to feedbacksthat include sea ice reduction and other dynamical and radiative feedbacks. We show that the mostprominent annual mean surface and tropospheric warming in the Arctic since 1979 has occurred innortheastern Canada and Greenland. In this region, much of the year-to-year temperature variabil-ity is associated with the leading mode of large-scale circulation variability in the North Atlantic,the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We show that the recent warming in this region is stronglyassociated with a negative trend in the NAO, which is a response to anomalous Rossby wave-trainactivity originating in the tropical Paci�c. Atmospheric model experiments forced by prescribedtropical sea surface temperatures simulate the observed circulation changes and associated tro-pospheric and surface warming over northeastern Canada and Greenland. Experiments from theCoupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models with prescribed anthropogenicforcing show no similar NAO-related circulation changes or associated tropospheric warming. Thissuggests that a substantial portion of recent warming in the northeastern Canada and Greenlandsector of the Arctic arises from unforced natural variability.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 51
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1330-1500)Session:20302
Numerical Weather Prediction IIWedgemont
13:30Forecasting Polar Lows with an on-demand EPS systemHanneke Luijting1, Eivind Stoylen1, Gunnar Noer1, Jorn Kristiansen11Norwegian Meteorological InstituteContact: [email protected]
Polar lows are small, intense low pressure systems, formed when cold air from the polar ice sheet (orcold land areas) �ows over a relatively warm sea surface. The coast of Northern Norway is frequentlyhit by polar lows: cold winds coming from the ice-covered Arctic Ocean meet the warm waters ofthe North Atlantic Current of the Gulf Stream. On average, 12-15 polar lows form each winter overthe Norwegian and the Barents Sea. Although they dissipate quickly after landfall, their small scaleand the sudden onset of strong winds and heavy snow showers often put human life and propertyat great risk both on and o� shore. The development of polar lows is generally well representedin numerical weather models, however, getting the location and timing right is a challenge. A newapproach for forecasting polar lows has been developed at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute incollaboration between the research department and forecasters from Tromso. A high-resolution EPSwith a �exible (on-demand) domain is available over the Nordic and Barents Seas. The forecasterselects between three di�erent prede�ned model domains based on the region with most potentialfor a polar low. The movement of a polar low is tracked by following vorticity maxima in eachof the 10 + 1 members of Harmonie EPS. The result is a strike probability map similar to thosecommonly used for tropical cyclone forecasting. These maps, together with the probability for windand precipitation over certain thresholds are then used to issue a forecast. This method has been inuse for the past three polar low seasons and has proved very successful. Harmonie EPS has 2.5 kmhorizontal grid spacing, run twice daily with a lead time of 42 hours and is a dynamical downscalingof ECMWF EPS.
13:45Improving Land-Surface Parameterization with the Multi-Budget Soil, Vegetation,and Snow (SVS) SchemeSyed Zahid Husain1, Nasim Alavi1, Stéphane Bélair1, Shunli Zhang2, Vincent Fortin1, MariaAbrahamowicz2, Nathalie Gauthier21Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada2Canadian Meteorological Centre, Environment CanadaContact: [email protected]
A new land-surface parameterization scheme, namely the Soil, Vegetation, and Snow (SVS) scheme,has recently been developed at Environment Canada to replace the operationally used ISBA (In-teractions between Surface, Biosphere, and Atmosphere) scheme. The new scheme is designed toaddress the many weaknesses and limitations of ISBA that have been identi�ed throughout the pastyears. Unlike ISBA, which calculates a single energy budget for the di�erent land-surface compo-nents, SVS introduces a new tiling approach that permits multiple energy budgets for bare ground,vegetation, ground under vegetation, and two snow packs (over bare ground and low vegetation, andunder high vegetation). Implementation of the multiple energy budgets is found to generally resultin a more accurate screen-level score for SVS while making any comparison of model outputs with
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 52
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1330-1500)Session:20302
Numerical Weather Prediction IIWedgemont
observational data more convenient. Furthermore, the separate energy budgets pave the way forfurther enhancements through possible implementation of multi-layer interactions between the at-mosphere and the land-surface components. Another major change in SVS compared to ISBA is theimplementation of a photosynthesis model for the determination of the surface stomatal resistance.Representation of photosynthesis is found to have signi�cant positive impact on the surface-layerair and dew point temperatures. The representation of vertical water transport through soil hasalso been substantially improved in SVS through the inclusion of multiple soil layers. This helpsto increase the accuracy and dynamical range of the evolving soil moisture �elds at the di�erentvertical levels within the soil. Other improvements in SVS include a modi�ed vegetation thermalcoe�cient that accounts for the contribution of the bare ground visible through the vegetationcanopy and better estimation of land-surface albedo and emissivity based on soil texture and soilwetness. The presentation will highlight the principal features of the SVS scheme along with athorough comparison between SVS and ISBA.
14:00The Weather Network's Hourly NWP Precipitation Nowcasting ModelIain Russell1, Zhan Li2, Majid Fekri1, Yongsheng Chen2, Peter Taylor21Pelmorex Media Inc.2York UniversityContact: [email protected]
Meteorologists at The Weather Network, in collaboration with Researchers from York University'sEarth and Space Science and Engineering Department, are exploring the application of high res-olution NWP to precipitation nowcasting. The traditional method for precipitation nowcastingat The Weather Network mainly relies upon radar extrapolation with a steady-state precipitationpattern assumption and without representation of new precipitation development or decay of oldprecipitation areas during the 0-6 hour prediction window. The Toronto 2015 Pan Am / Para-pan Am Games will occur in the middle of a 2-year collaborative NWP research project betweenThe Weather Network and York University, presenting an excellent opportunity to test-drive ourexperimental Nowcast-NWP model con�guration in real-time for a live high pro�le event setting.The main features of the experimental setup are: 1. Domain centred over the Southern OntarioGTA at 3km horizontal spatial resolution, tuned for precipitation prediction with cloud- resolvingmodeling, and using the new Thompson microphysics parameterization scheme; 2. GSI (GridpointStatistical Interpolation system) data assimilation, combining the NCEP High Resolution RapidRefresh (HRRR) as background �eld and 3D-Var for assimilation of real-time observations includ-ing re�ectivity and radial velocity from the Canadian volumetric radar data, OQ-Net wind pro�lerdata as well as traditional surface observations; 3. The entire system runs in the cloud (AmazonWeb Services), launching one set of 12-hour forecasts every hour; Development of the NWP setupinvolves making prototype runs of the model, and results from these runs will be presented. More-over this project is an excellent example of collaboration between the private sector and academialeading towards the transfer of scienti�c research to industry, demonstrating in a practical way thevalue of collaboration between di�erent sectors of the Canadian economy.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 53
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1330-1500)Session:20302
Numerical Weather Prediction IIWedgemont
14:15Determining forecast skill in a numerical weather model: Case study - 1 year of dailyWRF NWP results compared against observation data from the Wood Bu�alo Envi-ronmental Agency Air monitoring network.Ron Chapman1, Darren Cherneski1, Martin Bundred21RWDI2Alberta Environment and Sustainable Resource DevelopmentContact: [email protected]
Alberta Environment and Sustainable Resource Development recently worked with RWDI to de-velop a real-time plume dispersion modelling system called the Emergency Air Monitoring andAssessment System (EAMAS). The intent of the system is to model atmospheric release events inreal-time in order to provide emergency response personnel with a visual indication of the magni-tude and extent of ground level impacts. The system integrates numerical weather model output(WRF) with an atmospheric release model (HGSYSTEM), and an atmospheric dispersion model(CALPUFF). The purpose of this talk is to discuss the process of determining skill of the numericalweather forecast model (WRF) when compared against a network of 15 meteorological stationsduring the �rst year of operation. Results of the study will be presented.
14:30Postprocessing of Numerical Weather Forecasts Using Online Sequential ExtremeLearning MachinesAranildo Lima1, Alex Cannon2, William Hsieh11University of British Columbia2Paci�c Climate Impacts ConsortiumContact: [email protected]
Statistical/machine learning methods have been widely used in operational weather forecasting topostprocess numerical weather prediction (NWP) model output - i.e. statistical methods are usedto reduce the systematic errors in the NWP model output or to predict variables not forecastedby the NWP model. For statistical stability, a statistical model needs to be built from a long datarecord (i.e. long record of NWP output). Furthermore, most statistical models use batch learning,i.e. whenever new data become available, the model must be retrained using the whole data record,which can be computationally very costly. In contrast to batch learning, online sequential learningallows the model to be updated using only the new data. In this work, we use a sequential learningalgorithm called the online sequential extreme learning machine (OS-ELM) to postprocess NWPmodel forecasts of temperature and probability of precipitation. Originated from the batch learningextreme learning machine, the OS-ELM can update itself by learning from a single new data pointor multiple new data points, then discard the data. Four di�erent postprocessing methods weretested for forecast hours 3-48. The four methods were the OS-ELM, the simple moving-averagemethod, the Kalman �lter and the online multiple linear regression. The methods were tested ontemperature and probability of precipitation forecasts over stations across Canada.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 54
Oral Presentations
Monday June 1 (1330-1500)Session:20302
Numerical Weather Prediction IIWedgemont
14:45Les activités de post-traitement dans la section des éléments du temps du CentreMétéorologique Canadien (CMC).Nacera Chergui1, Stéphane Gagnon11Environnement CanadaContact: [email protected]
La section des éléments du temps (CMDW) de la division du développement des prévisions na-tionales (CMDD) du Centre Météorologique Canadien (CMC) est responsable du développement etde l'amélioration des syst`emes de post-traitement requis pour la génération des produits de prévi-sion environnementale. Les produits dérivés de ces syst`emes de post-traitement sont en quelquesorte l'interface entre les sorties des syst`emes de prévision numérique et les utilisateurs (prévi-sionnistes, public, médias, organismes privés et publiques). Elle s'occupe principalement du post-traitement statistique et diagnostique, des produits dérivés des di�érents syst`emes de prévisionsnumériques déterministes, d'ensembles et des prévisions saisonni`eres. Ces produits nourrissentplusieurs plateformes tels que le site meteo.gc.ca, les outils de production Scribe et NinJo ainsi quele dépôt de données DataMart du CMC. Les Priorités et les enjeux de la section seront présentés,ainsi que les projets en cours et les syst`emes en phase de développement (Exemple SPOOKI :Syst`eme de Production Orienté Objet avec une Kyrielle d'Information).
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 55
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1030-1200)Session:302
From Carbon Emissions to Climate ChangeFitzsimmons
10:30Constraining the strength of the terrestrial CO2 fertilization e�ect in Earth systemmodelsVivek Arora11Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment CanadaContact: [email protected]
The transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE), which is de�ned as the ratioof global-mean warming to cumulative emissions at CO2 doubling in a 1% per year CO2 increaseexperiment, combines aspects of both climate sensitivity and carbon cycle in a single metric. Thedi�erences in TCRE among Earth system models (ESMs) are thus caused by di�erences both intheir climate sensitivities as well as the response of land and ocean carbon cycles to increasingatmospheric CO2 and changing climate. The response of the land carbon cycle to changes inatmospheric CO2 varies widely across ESMs and it is the primary reason for di�erences in theresponse of the global carbon cycle to changes in atmospheric CO2. The response of the oceancarbon cycle, to changes in atmospheric CO2 and changing climate, is much more consistent acrossESMs. Over land, the strength of the CO2 fertilization e�ect is biggest source of uncertaintythat contributes to the large di�erences in response of the land carbon cycle. Here, I use resultsfrom the three generations of the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM1, CanESM2, CanESM4.2) to show how the net land carbon uptake over the historical period and the amplitude of theannual cycle of the atmospheric CO2 concentration may be used to constrain the strength of theCO2 fertilization e�ect of the land carbon cycle component. Uncertainty exists in land use changeemissions over the historical period and monthly global atmospheric CO2 data go back only to the1980s. These limitations imply that both the net land carbon uptake over the historical period andthe amplitude of the annual cycle of the atmospheric CO2 concentration provide not-toostrong,but still meaningful, constraints on the strength of the CO2 fertilization e�ect of the land carboncycle.
10:45Extending the TCRE to regional climate changesMartin Leduc1, Damon Matthews2, Ramon de Elia31Concordia University and Ouranos2Concordia Univerity3OuranosContact: [email protected]
The Transient Climate Response to cumulative Emissions (TCRE) is a metric that quanti�es theresponse of the climate system to anthropogenic CO2 emissions. De�ned as the ratio between theglobal mean temperature change and the amount of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere, the TCREaccounts for interactions between human activity, the climate sensitivity and the dynamics of carbonsinks. It is now well known that the TCRE metric is fairly stable over time, and approximatelyindependent of the emission pathway. While this has been widely shown in terms of the globalmean surface air temperature, here we show that the TCRE can also be treated as approximatelyconstant at the regional scale and for a broad range of climatic regions. Using an ensemble of twelve
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 56
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1030-1200)Session:302
From Carbon Emissions to Climate ChangeFitzsimmons
Earth System Models from the CMIP5 archive, we attribute a range of con�dence to the TCREspatial pattern so as to quantify the uncertainty associated with the sensitivity of the climate-carbonsystem across models. Together, the global and regional versions of the TCRE form a powerful setof tools for synthesizing complex climate model output for non-expert users and informing currentdiscussions for mitigating greenhouse gases emissions.
11:00The e�ect of ocean mixing on heat and carbon �uxes and the linearity between globalwarming and cumulative CO2 emissionsDana Ehlert1, Kirsten Zickfeld11Simon Fraser UniversityContact: [email protected] approximately linear relationship between global warming and cumulative CO2 emissions hasbeen shown. The ratio between global mean temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissionsis referred to as Transient Climate Response to cumulative Emissions (TCRE). The TCRE hasapplications for policy by relating total allowable emissions to a certain warming target and hasbeen suggested as a benchmark for model inter-comparison. However, the reasons for the constancyof the TCRE are not well understood. Ocean heat and carbon �uxes are assumed to play amajor role in the constancy of the TCRE as they are a�ected by the same mechanisms, but forinstance changes in ocean circulation might a�ect ocean heat and carbon �uxes in di�erent ways.Furthermore, land carbon �uxes need to be taken into account as well. This study explores thee�ect of di�erent ocean mixing parameterizations on ocean heat and carbon �uxes and, in turn,the constancy of the TCRE, and the role of land carbon �ux. The University of Victoria EarthSystem Climate Model (UVic ESCM), which contains a simple atmosphere, a dynamic ocean, anda land-surface scheme coupled to a dynamic vegetation model, is used. All model parts are coupledto a carbon cycle. Ocean mixing parameters and schemes are varied for di�erent simulations thatare forced with a quadrupling of atmospheric CO2. The di�erent ocean mixing schemes introducechanges in ocean heat and carbon �uxes, which a�ect global mean temperature and cumulativeemission, as atmospheric CO2 concentrations are prescribed. Thus, the TCRE varies betweendi�erent mixing settings. However, within each mixing setting the TCRE is approximately constantover time. Furthermore, not taking land carbon �uxes into account results in a stronger deviationfrom constant values for the TCRE.
11:15Exploring the proportional relationship between global warming and cumulative CO2emissions for negative emission scenariosKirsten Zickfeld11Simon Fraser UniversityContact: [email protected] research has demonstrated an approximately proportional relationship between global meantemperature change and cumulative carbon emissions. This relationship has mostly been exploredfor scenarios with positive CO2 emissions into the atmosphere. Negative emissions (also referredto as arti�cial carbon dioxide removal) are increasingly discussed as a means to mitigate climate
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 57
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1030-1200)Session:302
From Carbon Emissions to Climate ChangeFitzsimmons
change, particularly in the context of scenarios meeting stringent climate targets, such as the 2oCtarget. Here, we use an Earth System Model of intermediate complexity to explore the ratio ofglobal warming to cumulative carbon emissions - a measure referred to as the Transient ClimateResponse to Cumulative Carbon Emissions (TCRE) - for a range of idealized scenarios entailing netnegative CO2 emissions. Our results indicate that the TCRE increases during periods of negativeemissions. This increase is associated with a heat �ux from the ocean into the atmosphere, whichprevents the system from cooling. The TCRE increase is larger for scenario with larger time-integrated top-of the-atmosphere energy imbalance. We conclude that due to the larger TCRE,the e�ectiveness of arti�cial CO2 removal in mitigating climate change may be lower than expectedbased on the TCRE for positive emission scenarios.
11:30How much would �ve trillion tonnes of carbon warm the climate?Katarzyna Tokarska1, Nathan Gillett2, Andrew Weaver11University of Victoria2Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, University of VictoriaContact: [email protected]
Estimates of the fossil fuel resource have a lower bound of around 5 trillion tonnes of carbon (EgC),and it is of interest to know what the likely climate impacts of burning this much fossil fuels wouldbe. The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report reports that a linear relationship between warming andcumulative carbon emissions is known to hold only up to around 2 EgC emissions. It is typicallyassumed that at higher cumulative emissions the warming would tend to be less than that predictedby such a linear relationship, with the radiative saturation e�ect dominating the e�ects of positivecarbon-climate feedbacks at high emissions. One study using a simple climate model predicteda most likely global warming in response to 5 EgC emissions of only around 5oC. Here we makeuse of RCP 8.5-Extension simulations from �ve Earth System models from the Coupled ModelIntercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), which extend to cumulative CO2 emissions of around5 EgC. Our results demonstrate that CO2 induced warming continues to increase approximatelylinearly with cumulative carbon emissions even at these high cumulative emissions. The simulationsexhibit global mean warming between 9oC and 13oC in 2300 for cumulative CO2 emissions ofapproximately 5 EgC, with smaller forcing contributions from other greenhouse gases. These resultsindicate that the exploitation of the full fossil fuel resource would result in considerably moreprofound climate changes than previously suggested.
11:45Methane Leaks from Canadian and American Gas Fields and Impacts on the UNFCCCWayne Evans11York UniversityContact: [email protected]
The issue of methane leaks from North American gas �elds is under strong debate. Around 10 % ofnatural gas production is escaping into the atmosphere. Only about 2% is reported to the UNFCCCby the EPA and by Environment Canada. This represents more than 30% missing from the US
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 58
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1030-1200)Session:302
From Carbon Emissions to Climate ChangeFitzsimmons
and Canadian reported GHG budget of equivalent carbon dioxide. In this paper we demonstratethe sources of these large leaks. Of particular interest are the large leaks from the Baaken �eld.The role of leaks from coal mining operations is of particular interest to Alberta. The large leakagerates have been discovered by airborne in situ measurements. Remote sensing measurements fromsatellites verify the aircraft measurements.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 59
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1030-1200)Session:70601
Hydro-climatic Variability Change and Extremes I: Climatic DriversGaribaldi A
10:30Recent Earth system change in the interior of western Canada - recent results fromthe Changing Cold Regions NetworkChris DeBeer1, Howard Wheater1, Ronald Stewart2, John Pomeroy11University of Saskatchewan2University of ManitobaContact: [email protected] the western and northern interior of Canada, rapid and severe Earth system changes havebeen occurring over the past several decades, accompanied by major hydro-climatic extremes. Theseinclude both the worst �ooding and drought on record in the past 15 years alone, for some areas.The Canadian Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) is a multi-disciplinary research initiativethat aims to understand, diagnose, and predict interactions amongst the cryospheric, ecological,hydrological, and climatic components of the changing Earth system over this region. The networkhas been engaged in evaluation and synthesis of observed changes, including analyses based on theAdjusted and Homogenized Canadian Climate Dataset, its gridded counterpart, CANGRD, and theWater Survey of Canada's Reference Hydrometric Basin Network. This provides context for moredetailed observations of change and process-level understanding, from a set of 14 Water, Ecosystem,Cryosphere, and Climate (WECC) observatories over the CCRN study domain. Diagnostic evalu-ation of regional change and the occurrence of recent extreme events has involved studies based onNorth American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program and Coupled Model Intercompar-ison Project Phase 5 datasets, development of downscaling techniques for climate model outputsusing Generalized Linear Models, and simulation of recent events using the Cold Regions Hydro-logical Model, Environment Canada's Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire - Surface andHydrology and Global Environmental Multiscale - Local Area Model and, and the National Centerfor Atmospheric Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model. This presentation will reviewobserved changes and trends in various Earth system components over this region, highlightingsome of the recent hydro-climatic extremes such as �ooding, drought, and forest �res.
10:45Elevational dependence of climate variability and trends in British Columbia's CaribooMountains, 1950-2010Aseem Sharma1, Stephen Déry11Natural Resources and Environment Studies, University of Northern British ColumbiaContact: [email protected]
Pristine mountain environments are more sensitive to climate change than other land surfaces. Theunderstanding of climatic variations in mountainous terrain is still uncertain. Previous studies revealinconsistent �ndings on the elevational dependency of warming in the mountains. In this study, thetrends and elevational dependence of climatic variables in the Cariboo Mountains Region (CMR)of British Columbia are explored. A high resolution 10 km x 10 km gridded data set of climatevariables over the period of 1950-2010 is used. The Mann-Kendall test is performed for evaluation oftrends and their signi�cance. The minimum and maximum air temperatures of the region have risenby 1.9oC and 1.2oC, respectively, in the last six decades. Although the total annual precipitation
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 60
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1030-1200)Session:70601
Hydro-climatic Variability Change and Extremes I: Climatic DriversGaribaldi A
does not show any signi�cant trend, there is year-to-year variation of total precipitation by ±30%from its long-term mean. The minimum air temperature trend shows signi�cant ampli�ed warmingat higher elevations. The annual minimum air temperature trends are stronger and signi�cant athigher elevations with magnitude of more than 0.5oC decade-1 above 2000 m a.s.l. The annualmaximum air temperature trends show the opposite pattern of increase with elevation, mostlybelow 1500 m a.s.l. The snow-albedo feedback (SAF) and increase in the cloud cover over theregion may be the possible major factors responsible for elevational warming in the CMR. Thepotential impacts of these changes are on the endangered mountain caribou and water resources ofthe area.
11:00The June 2013 Alberta Catastrophic Flooding: Water vapor transport analysis byWRF simulationYanping Li1, Kit Szeto2, Ronald Stewart3, Julie Thériault4, Xuebin Zhang2, Bob Kochtubajda5,Sudesh Boodoo6, Ron Goodson5, Anthony Liu51Not Given2Climate Data and Analysis, Environment Canada, Toronto3Dept of Environment and Geography, University of Manitoba4Dept of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Université du Québec5Environment Canada, Edmonton6Environment Canada, King CityContact: [email protected]
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model was used to simulate 2013 Alberta �oodingevent. In the simulation, there were 2 nested domains; the resolutions for the inner/outer domainwere 3 km/27 km respectively. The boundary condition was forced by NCEP reanalysis with1 degree resolution every 6 hours. WRF simulated precipitation was then compared to CaPA,CMOPH, and station data for calibration. The simulated timing and location of the precipitation,and the generated precipitation rates closely �t the observations, indicating that WRF model iscapable to reproduce this type of severe event. Water vapor budget analysis were applied to �nd outthe moisture sources that caused the �ood to occur, including the large scale moisture convergenceby advection, orographic blocking and lifting, local recycling of the water through evaporation, etc.Sensitivity test of local topography was done with reduced- mountain height, less roughness, to seehow much precipitation was contributed by the blocking e�ect, and how the correct timing andlocation of the precipitation relies on the micro-meteorology process within the Rocky mountain.This work is a preparation for future WRF simulations under global warming scenario to see whetherthis type of extreme events may happen more frequently in future.
11:30Improving the Representation of Snow Processes in CLASS for Western CanadianregionsWaqar Younas11Not GivenContact: [email protected]
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 61
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1030-1200)Session:70601
Hydro-climatic Variability Change and Extremes I: Climatic DriversGaribaldi A
The climate of western North America, most notably British Columbia, has changed substantiallyover the past century and its impacts can be observed widely from its hydrological cycle. In thiscontext, it is vital to monitor and simulate these changes and their impacts on the region's futurehydrology. In this study, the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) will be implemented tosimulate the snow modelling using some of the weather stations data in western BC. The emphasiswill be placed on the development of a sub-grid scale snow (SSS) parameterization and its impacton representing land surface heterogeneities. The snow parameterization will incorporate elevationbands, the consideration of slope and aspect and exposure to wind, among others. It is expected thatthis work will improve the depiction of snowpack evolution in western North America and will helpto evaluate its impacts on regional hydrology. This study will also focus on some other importantissues related to snow modelling, e.g., the impact of SSS parameterizations on the simulation ofsnow in mountain regions will be assessed.
11:45Trends in Hydrological Extremes as Modelled Using Two Gridded-ClimatologicalDatasetsArelia Werner1, Markus Schnorbus1, Rajesh Shrestha1, Sanjiv Kumar11Paci�c Climate Impacts Consortium, UVICContact: [email protected] data are essential to hydrologic modelling and statistical downscaling. Yet, alimited availability of station data and complex terrain make British Columbia a challenging set-ting to create such data. Two gridded-climatological datasets are compared in this study. TheVariable In�ltration Capacity (VIC) Forcings dataset includes station data from the EnvironmentCanada, BC Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations, BC Hydro, and theUS National Weather Service Co-operative networks. It was created for BC by interpolating sta-tions to 1/16o grids (≈27-31 km2) using the SYMAP inverse-distance weighting algorithm, gridded�elds were temporally homogenized to remove interpolation artefacts introduced by using a tempo-rally varying mix of stations and corrected for topographic e�ects using ClimateWNA. The seconddataset includes quality controlled Environment Canada stations. It was created for Canada usingthe Australian National University Spline (ANUSPLIN) implementation of a trivariate thin platesmoothing splines at ≈10 km resolution using elevation, longitude and latitude as interpolationpredictors. One potentially in�uential di�erence in the two methodologies is that the VIC Forcingsincludes a temporal correction while the ANUSPLIN does not. We evaluate these methods bycomparing hydrologic trends and climatologies from the VIC hydrologic model for ten sub-basinsof the Peace, Columbia and Fraser River Basins, as driven by VIC Forcings and ANUSPLIN, tothose from the Water Survey of Canada Reference Hydrometric Basin Network (RHBN) observa-tions. Additionally, we carry out a validation with a Budyko based analysis that compares observedstream�ow data for 17 watersheds in BC to the temperature and precipitation data provided bythe two gridded-observations. These validations are a means to evaluate uncertainties in modellinghydrologic extremes due to di�erences in gridded climate data and to inform the robust creation offuture datasets.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 62
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1030-1200)Session:50201
Collaboration in development application and analysis of ocean forecasting models IGaribaldi B
10:30The CONCEPTS Global Ice-Ocean Prediction SystemGregory Smith1, Dorina Surcel-Colan2, Francois Roy1, Mateusz Reszka2, Frédéric Dupont2,Jean-François Lemieux1, Christiane Beaudoin1, Zhongjie He1, Jean-Marc Belanger1, FraserDavidson3, Youyu Lu4, Gilles Garric51Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada2Canadian Meteorological Centre, Environment Canada3Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre, Fisheries and Oceans Canada4Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries and Oceans Canada5Mercator Ocean, FranceContact: [email protected]
Here we describe a new system running at the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) entitledthe Global Ice Ocean Prediction System (GIOPS). GIOPS provides ice and ocean analyses and10 day forecasts daily at 00GMT on a global 1/4o resolution grid. GIOPS includes a full multi-variate ocean data assimilation system that combines satellite observations of sea level anomalyand sea surface temperature (SST) together with in situ observations of temperature and salin-ity. In situ observations are obtained from a variety of sources including: the Argo network ofautonomous pro�ling �oats, moorings, ships of opportunity, marine mammals and research cruises.Ocean analyses are blended with sea ice analyses produced by the experimental Global Ice AnalysisSystem. Atmospheric �uxes for 10 day forecasts are calculated using �elds from CMC's GlobalDeterministic Prediction System. GIOPS has been developed as part of the Canadian OperationalNetwork of Coupled Environmental PredicTion Systems (CONCEPTS) initiative between Environ-ment Canada, Fisheries and Oceans Canada and National Defense. The development of GIOPSwas made through a partnership with Mercator-Océan, a French operational oceanography group.Mercator-Océan provided the ocean data assimilation code and assistance with the system imple-mentation. GIOPS has undergone a rigorous evaluation of the analysis, trial and forecast �eldsdemonstrating its capacity to provide high-quality products in a robust and reliable framework. Inparticular, SST and ice concentration forecasts demonstrate a clear bene�t with respect to persis-tence. These results support the use of GIOPS products within other CMC operational systems,and more generally, as part of a Government of Canada marine core service. An update to GIOPSwas made in June 2014, that revisits the blending of ice and ocean analyses and results in improvedice forecast skill. Results from an intercomparison of global ocean prediction systems (includingGIOPS) made as part of GODAE Oceanview will also be presented.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 63
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1030-1200)Session:50201
Collaboration in development application and analysis of ocean forecasting models IGaribaldi B
10:45Circulation, meso-scale eddies and tides simulated with the high-resolution ocean mod-els based on NEMOYouyu Lu1, Li Zhai2, Ji Lei2, Simon Higginson2, Frédéric Dupont3, Francois Roy3, Gregory Smith3,Fraser Davidson2, Jiaxing Li41Not Given2Fisheries and Oceans Canada3Environment Canada4Dalhousie UniversityContact: [email protected]
A series of high-resolution ocean models, based on the Nucleus for European Modelling of theOcean (NEMO), has been developed by the Canadian CONCEPTS program for various projectsand applications. These models cover the North Atlantic, Arctic and North Paci�c Oceans, withhorizontal resolutions of 1/12o and 1/36o in latitude and longitude. A series of hindcast simulations(without data assimilation) are carried out, and the results are assessed with a variety of in situ andsatellite remote sensing observations. It is shown that the models obtain reasonable solutions oftides and circulation patterns. For the simulation of meso-scale eddies, the eddy kinetic energy andthe detailed eddy structure are very sensitive to the choice of lateral viscosity used in momentumequations, in particular at 1/36o resolution. Comparison of modelled and observed spectra of eddyvariability, in both frequency and wavenumber domains, guides the further improvement of thesemodels.
11:00A high-resolution baroclinic model of ocean circulation o� southwest of Nova ScotiaFatemeh Chegini1, Youyu Lu2, C. Harold Ritchie3, Keith Thompson11Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University2Bedford Institute of Oceanography, DFO3Meteorological Research Division, ECContact: [email protected]
A high resolution ocean model is developed to study circulation o� southwest of Nova Scotia. Thiswork is part of a project within MEOPAR to develop a coupled relocatable atmosphere-oceanprediction system. The study aims to investigate the baroclinic response of the region to wind,density and tidal forcing. The three dimensional baroclinic model is based on NEMO (Nucleusfor European Modelling of the Ocean). The model con�guration has a horizontal resolution ofapproximately 500 m and uses 40 vertical levels with a variable spacing of 1 to 12 m. The model isforced with realistic meteorological forcing. The initial and boundary conditions are derived from alarge-scale model covering the Scotian Shelf. In this presentation, details of the model developmentwill be discussed. The model performance will also be evaluated by comparing the numericalresults with observations. Furthermore, preliminary analysis of the in�uence of tidal, wind anddensity induced currents on the upwelling process o� Cape Sable, southwest of Nova Scotia willbe presented. This study is funded by the Marine Environmental Observation, Prediction andResponse (MEOPAR) Network of Centers of Excellence.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 64
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1030-1200)Session:50201
Collaboration in development application and analysis of ocean forecasting models IGaribaldi B
11:15Evaluation of Physics and Numerics of a Real-time Model of the Salish SeaSusan Allen1, Nancy Soontiens1, Doug Latornell1, Idalia Machuca1, Jie Liu11Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, University of British ColumbiaContact: [email protected] real-time model of storm-surge for the Salish Sea is producing two forecasts and a nowcastdaily and publishing the results to the web (salishsea.eos.ubc.ca/nemo). We are developing thismodel to produce three-dimensional �elds of velocity, tracers, the carbon system, nutrients andphytoplankton. In this presentation, we will provide details of our evaluation with an emphasis onwhat we have learned about the physics of the Salish Sea and the numerical model NEMO. Speci�cissues are: 1) the principle factors determining storm surge in the Strait of Georgia 2) the impactof mixing in the San Juan/Gulf Islands on tides, 3) the impact of river treatment on currents,temperature and salinity and 4) the deep water renewal problem.
11:30Baroclinic circulation along the northern coast of British ColumbiaPramod Thupaki1, Charles Hannah2, Michael Foreman2, Di Wan31Institute of Ocean Sciences2Fisheries and Oceans Canada3Univeristy of VictoriaContact: [email protected]
A three-dimensional numerical ocean model using the Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FV-COM) is being developed to help understand the circulation in the network of islands, channels andfjords of the northern coast of British Columbia. Atmospheric forcing for the model was calculatedfrom the high-resolution deterministic prediction system (HRDPS-west) weather model with a hori-zontal resolution of 2.5km. Discharge from the rivers was estimated using climatology for ungaugedwatersheds and discharge measurements at gauged rivers. The validation against temperature andsalinity measurements and ADCP observations from July 2013 to June 2014 shows that the nu-merical model is able to simulate the estuarine circulation and the sharp pycnocline expected fromobservations. We will demonstrate the importance of accurate hydrological inputs for circulationin this region. The presence of strati�cation was also found to have some unexpected impacts onthe tidal circulation. The numerical model will eventually be used to assist with the prevention,preparedness and response to oil spills along the north coast of British Columbia.
11:45A relocatable coupled atmosphere-ocean prediction systemC. Harold Ritchie1, Natacha Bernier1, Tony Charles2, Luc Fillion1, Haibo Niu3, Rich Pawlowicz4,Keith Thompson31Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada2Saint Mary's University3Dalhousie University4University of British ColumbiaContact: [email protected]
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 65
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1030-1200)Session:50201
Collaboration in development application and analysis of ocean forecasting models IGaribaldi B
A research and development project to develop a relocatable coupled atmosphere-ocean predictionsystem is in progress within the Marine Environmental Observation, Prediction and Response(MEOPAR) academic Network of Centres of Excellence. MEOPAR brings together Canadianresearchers, stakeholders and users in a multi-sectoral partnership to better observe, predict andrespond to marine hazards (see www.meopar.ca). This project's main goals are: build and test acoupled atmosphere-ocean forecast system that can be set up within hours of a marine emergency,anywhere in Canadian waters; provide short-term forecasts (hours to days) of physical propertiesof the atmosphere and ocean to guide response to a marine emergency; develop the ability toassimilate data (e.g., observations from altimeters and gliders) and downscale predictions fromlarger scale models; develop modules for o�ine prediction of movement and dispersion of plumes ofhazardous materials; and develop parallel mechanisms for rapid appraisal of socio-economic valuesand risks in coastal areas, including community based approaches. The atmospheric model is a highresolution limited area con�guration of the operational Environment Canada Global EnvironmentalMulti-scale (GEM) weather forecast model, and the ocean model is a shelf version of the NEMO(Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) ocean forecast system, starting from one alreadyimplemented by the Canadian Operational Network of Coupled Environmental PredicTion Systems(CONCEPTS) for the Gulf of St. Lawrence. A major �eld experiment is planned for 2016 on theScotian Shelf to test the ocean model. The experiment will involve a small scale tracer releaseexperiment. Preliminary drifter deployment and current-measuring HF radar validation tasks havealready been carried out in the Strait of Georgia. This presentation will provide an overview of ouractivities for years 1-3, illustrate systems developed and research in progress, and discuss plans foryears 4 and 5 of the project.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 66
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1030-1200)Session:701
Meteorology Hydrology and Renewable EnergyHarmony
10:30Likelihood of Microclimate Changes Caused by a Large Hydro Power Project: Appli-cation of Bayesian Two-Sample Comparison to Site CChristian Reuten11RWDI AIR Inc.Contact: [email protected]
The �lling of the reservoir for BC Hydro's Site C project near Fort St. John in British Columbiawill alter the land surface characteristics in the �ooded areas. As part of the project application,an environmental assessment of the project's potential impacts on the climate in the surroundingareas was performed. The Weather Forecast Research (WRF) model was run for the same twelve-month period representative of climate normals with current and future land surface characteristics.Bayesian two-sample comparison was applied to determine the spatial distribution of the statisticalsigni�cance of changes in several climate parameters for each calendar month. While the mathe-matics is elaborate, the code for Bayesian two-sample comparison it applicable to a much broaderset of problems (e.g. to verify the representativeness of the model year). Signi�cance was expressedas likelihoods following the wording conventions of the International Panel for Climate Change tomake the assessment more intuitive and accessible to the general public. This presentation willoutline the approach, highlight some of the mathematical and computational hurdles, and presentsome speci�c results for Site C.
10:45Past and potential relationships between wind speed and runo� behaviour. Implica-tions for renewable planning development in British Columbia.Joseph Bailey1, Karen Kohfeld1, Charles Curry2, Ben Cross11Simon Fraser University2University of VictoriaContact: [email protected]
Previous research has suggested that long-term relationships between wind speed and reservoirin�ow behaviour have potential to improve wind power site selection, and that northwestern BritishColumbia (BC) shows promise for wind energy development. We explore the long-term relationshipbetween wind speed and BC's water resource using di�erent sources of data and model output. Overthe period 1979-2010 we compare wind speed data from the Integrated Surface Dataset (ISD), theNorth American Regional Re-analysis (NARR) and an average of three ensemble outputs from theCanadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) generated under an IPCC SRES A2 forcing. FOR theperiod 1979 - 2010, we investigate relationships between the wind speeds (ISD, NARR, CRCM) andan average of three ensembles of the monthly sum of total surface runo� generated by the CRCM.Weuse runo� as a proxy for reservoir in�ow because it correlates well with historical reservoir in�ow inBC and so it represents hydroelectric energy generation potential. We observe both increasing anddecreasing wind speeds, and signi�cant relationships between wind speeds and runo� vary with thesource of wind speed information used. The NARR suggests predominantly positive correlationsbetween wind speeds and runo� whereas the CRCM suggests negative correlations. We observealmost no signi�cant relationships between the ISD wind speeds and runo�. For the period 1958-
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 67
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1030-1200)Session:701
Meteorology Hydrology and Renewable EnergyHarmony
2099, we use output from the CRCM ensemble runs to investigate future relationships (2010 - 2099)between wind speeds and runo�. We observe persistent, signi�cant negative correlations betweenruno� and wind speeds in the northwest regions of BC, which may bolster the value of wind energyin these regions. Based on the �ndings of this research, future energy planning e�orts ought toconsider the value of BC's northwest region particularly with respect to wind energy.
11:00The Dose-Response of the Power Distribution Grid to Windstorms that A�ect South-west British Columbia, CanadaWolf Read11Not GivenContact: [email protected]�c storms bringing saturating rain and strong winds routinely disrupt the power grid of South-west British Columbia (BC). Wind-broken trees and branches striking lines and poles during thesestorms are a common cause. Distribution-level data from BC Hydro covering the period Oct 2005-Aug 2009 were examined in relation to weather records from the Vancouver and Abbotsford airports.Tree- related line faults within a 50 km radius of Vancouver during all independent storm eventswith peak winds >40 km h-1 were tallied, and then compared to the maximum wind. Routinestorms bringing maximum winds of 40-55 km h-1 have a high probability of causing tree- relatedpower outages. As speeds approach high-wind category (≈65 km h-1), the probability quicklyclimbs toward 100%. On average, southeasterly windstorms tend to cause approximately twice asmany line faults when compared to westerly surges. There is moderate to moderately strong linearcorrelation between peak 2-min wind or 5-sec gust speed and the frequency of line faults. Theaverage number of line faults for a given wind speed has a strong correlation with wind speed whenusing an exponential �t. Poisson regression models using single or multiple variables includingpeak wind, peak gust and peak wind direction all produce curves similar to an exponential �t, oneapproximated by peak wind speed to the sixth power in the case of the univariate peak wind model.The curvilinear models indicate the potential for catastrophic damage to the power grid when windspeeds approach that of the historic 12 Oct 1962 windstorm.
11:15Present and Future Wind Energy Resources in Western Canada.Je� Daines11University of VictoriaContact: [email protected]
Wind power presently plays a minor role in electrical generation in Western Canada. However,ongoing reductions in the cost of wind power generation facilities and the continuing environmentalcosts of conventional power generation, suggest that assessment of the present and future wind�eld in Western Canada is of some importance. To assess present wind power, raw hourly windspeeds and homogenized monthly mean wind speeds from 30 stations in Western Canada wereanalyzed. A regional reanalysis product, the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), andsimulations conducted with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) driven with global
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 68
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1030-1200)Session:701
Meteorology Hydrology and Renewable EnergyHarmony
reanalysis boundary forcing, were compared to the adjusted station wind speed time-series and speeddistributions. The NARR had a somewhat better temporal correlation, but was generally worsethan the CRCM in reproducing the observed speed distribution. The CRCM using a 45km grid,when driven by two Global Climate Models, for the periods 1971-2000 (using only historic emissions)and 2031-2060 (using the A2 emissions scenario), was de-biased using quantile-quantile matching tothe adjusted station observations to obtain two ensembles of projected wind speed distributions forthe 2031-2060 period at the station locations. Both bias correction and change factor techniqueswere used for de-biasing. At most station locations modest increases in mean wind speed were foundfor most of the projected distributions, but there is a large variance in the projections. Estimatesof the wind power for the projected speed distributions suggest that wind power at the stationlocations is more likely than not to increase in the future. While the station locations are relativelyfew and not distributed evenly over the region, they are generally representative of the region,suggesting that wind energy resources in Western Canada are reasonably likely to increase at leastmodestly in the future.
11:30Potential impacts of wind farms in Lake Erie: Some preliminary 1-D modelling usingCOHERENSSoudeh Afsharian1, Peter Taylor11York UniversityContact: [email protected]
More than 90% of the world's o�shore wind is installed in Europe and China, although there areplans in the USA (including in Lake Erie - Cleveland) and Taiwan. There are also extensive plansfor additional wind farms in Europe. If there were large scale o�shore wind farm development inthe Great Lakes, what impacts would they have? Small scale Ekman pumping, associated withspatial variation of the surface wind stress on the water surface caused by the turbine wakes will bea part of the in�uence of o�shore wind farms but there will also be a direct e�ect of changes in thewind speeds and surface stress in the wind farm wake through reduced mixing of the upper mixedlayer. We consider this in an idealized 1-D situation, appropriate to a large wind farm in uniformdepth water, but we use real wind speed and other meteorological data to simulate variations overthe ice- free season in Lake Erie. COHERENS is the numerical software that we are using. Themodel is run twice. In the �rst case it simulates conditions in the absence of wind turbines whilethe second run includes a reduced (typically by 25%) wind speed associated with the e�ects ofwind turbines. In the presence of wind turbines, surface water currents decrease in response to adecrease in the wind speed. The water temperature gradient increases as there is a higher surfacewater temperature in response to reduced mixing and a potentially shallower mixed layer and lowerbottom temperature due to less heat di�usion. The thermocline develops faster and is stronger.The mixed layer depth exists for longer but is shallower than without wind turbines. There is adecrease in the latent and sensible heat �uxes while long wave radiation heat �ux remains relativelyunchanged.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 69
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1030-1200)Session:40201
Ocean-atmosphere interactions and sea ice IRainbow
10:30Sea State and Boundary Layer Physics of the Emerging Arctic OceanJim Thomson1, Ted Maksym2, Steve Ackley3, Johannes Gemmrich4,Will Perrie5, Susanne Lehner6,Alex Babanin7, Ben Holt8, Hayley Shen9, Sharon Stammerjohn10, Martin Je�ries11, Scott Harper111University of Washington2Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution3University of Texas4University of Victoria5Bedford Institute of Oceanography6DLR7Swinburne University8Jet Propulsion Laboratory9Clarkson University10Colorado University11O�ce of Naval ResearchContact: [email protected]
We present a large collaborative program investigating surface processes over the Arctic Oceanduring the early autumn ice advance. With recent observed and predicted declines in summerminimum sea ice extent, the nature and role of air-ice-waves-ocean interactions driving autumn iceadvance are expected to change. Central to these changes, the greatly increased open water fetchpermits the generation of waves that may propagate far into the ice pack. Wave-ice interactionslead to wave attenuation and scattering while simultaneously fracturing ice into ever changing�oe size and thickness distributions. Thus, the processes of wave generation and wave dissipationare complicated by the marginal ice zone (MIZ). During the ice advance, waves can enhance iceformation rates through frazil/pancake generation. Further complicating these processes are forcingby winds and surface �uxes from the ocean to the atmosphere, which are episodically driven bystorms. These processes moderate the release of heat from enhanced summer warming of the upperocean, which may in turn impact the rate of ice advance. We apply a combination of numericalmodeling, in situ observations, and remote sensing, with a focus on arctic conditions during theseasonal ice advance in early autumn. In preparation for a six-week cruise in the autumn of2015, we have assessed emerging trends for the annual freeze-up of the Beaufort and Chukchiseas. Waves are clearly controlled by the extent of open water (i.e., fetch limitation) and stronglydamped in newly forming ice. Winds are signi�cantly a�ected by ice cover and reduced by increasedatmospheric stability over the ice. The ice advance rate is nearly constant, despite extreme inter-annual variations of sea-ice extent in recent years, which suggests that large-scale thermodynamicsare the dominant process.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 70
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1030-1200)Session:40201
Ocean-atmosphere interactions and sea ice IRainbow
10:45Wind waves in arctic seasJohannes Gemmrich1, Erick Rogers2, Jim Thomson3, Susanne Lehner4, Andrey Pleskachevsky41University of Victoria2Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center3Applied Physics Laboratory4German Aerospace Center DLRContact: [email protected]
The reduction of the sea ice coverage during the boreal summer will lead to an increased importanceof wind waves for the dynamic processes of the Arctic Seas. Larger ice free areas lead to longerfetch and thus longer and higher sea state. Wind waves will enhance upper-ocean mixing, maya�ect the breakup of ice sheets, and will likely lead to increased coastal erosion. Our long-term goalis a better understanding of the two-way interaction of waves and sea-ice, in order to improve wavemodels as well as ice models applicable to a changing Arctic wave- and ice climate. Wind, waveand ice information has been retrieved from space-borne SAR imagery (TerraSAR-X), collectedduring summer 2014 in the Beaufort Sea. The SAR data were co-located with drifting wave-buoysand wave gliders. This information complements and validates model data (Wavewatch III) for thespatial and temporal evolution of sea state in the Arctic. We will present examples of wind andwave �elds under di�erent wind forcing and ice conditions, and discuss the advantages of the threeobservational/modelling approaches. The examples highlight the strong spatial heterogeneity of thewave �eld in arctic regions, and the need for high resolution spatial wave observations. Satellite-based wave �eld observations can bridge the gap between the single point buoy observation thatprovide high resolution time series of wave parameters, and the output of wave models which areof relatively coarse resolution and are inherently limited by the quality of the wind and ice input�elds, but are unlimited in their spatial and temporal extent.
11:00Observation-based large scale material properties of landfast sea iceMathieu Plante1, Bruno Tremblay1, Bryn Ronalds11McGill UniversityContact: [email protected]
Daily corrected re�ectance and brightness temperature imagery from the MODIS Terra and Acquasatellites are used to observe ice grounding, ice bridge formation and break up events that are behindthe seasonal advances and retreats of the landfast ice cover in the Kara sea for the 2013-2014 winter.We demonstrate that the formation of the landfast ice cover in the Kara sea is characterized by theformation of ice bridges between neighboring islands, regularly forming and breaking according tothe wind forcing. This network of ice bridges eventually consolidates into an extensive and stablelandfast ice cover. These observations are paralleled with the three modes of landfast ice extentin the Kara sea, as observed on ice charts from the National Ice Center (NIC) for the 1976-2007period. We demonstrate that these modes, as well as the break up of the landfast ice cover, relateto the ability of the ice bridges to resist the wind forcing. To estimate the large scale materialproperties of landfast sea ice that correspond to these observations, a linear elastic model is used to
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 71
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1030-1200)Session:40201
Ocean-atmosphere interactions and sea ice IRainbow
reproduce the internal stress in the landfast ice cover of the Kara sea. These results are combinedto the MODIS observations to calculate the yield strength of landfast sea ice, to be implementedin an observation-based dynamical sea-ice model.
11:15Mapping thin landfast ice in the Canadian ArcticChristian Haas1, Humfrey Melling2, Eric Brossier31York University2Institute of Ocean Sciences, DFO3vagabond.frContact: [email protected]
Ice thickness climatologies obtained at few near-shore observatories in the high Canadian Arcticshow that �rst-year fast ice in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago grows approximately 2 m thick inthe end of the winter, depending on snow thickness, and that it has changed little over the pastfew decades. However, concurrently there are also recurring polynyas in nearby sounds and straits,indicating that thermodynamic �rst-year ice growth on the Canadian polar shelf may actually bequite variable depending on oceanic conditions and ice age. Here we present results from thousandsof kilometers of snowmobile ice thickness surveys performed during hunting and recreational over-icetravel and Canadian Rangers traverses, including in spring of 2015. Measurements were carried outwith a novel, short, 2 m long electromagnetic ice thickness sensor mounted on a sledge. We show thatthis sensor provides accurate ice thickness measurements with low noise and little drift throughoutthe winter season, and is thus ideally suited for large-scale, seasonal mapping of the thickness oflevel fast ice as part of a future distributed, community-based observation network. Results showthe occurrence of widespread regions of thin, less than 1 m thick ice in various fjords and straitssurrounding Jones Sound and Ba�n Island, and Labrador. Coincident water temperature andsalinity measurements show that these regions are related to regions of increased ocean heat �uxsupported by local bathymetry and tidal mixing, while di�erences of snow thickness play a minorrole. These results provide new insights into ice-ocean interaction on the Canadian polar shelfand the occurrence of these invisible polynyas, characterized by oceanic conditions intermediatebetween visible polynyas and near-shore shallow water regimes. Under warmer climate conditions,these regions may become open polynyas with likely strong consequences for local and regionalclimatic and ecological conditions.
11:30Thermodynamics of snow-ice formation on sea iceMathilde Jutras1, Martin Vancoppenolle2, Frederic Vivier2, Antonio Lourenço2, Clément Rousset2,Gurvan Madec2, Jean-Louis Tison3, Gauthier Carnat31McGill University2Sorbonne Universités Univ Paris 06, LOCEAN-IPSL-CNRS-IRD-MNHN3Université Libre de Bruxelles, Laboratoire de GlaciologieContact: [email protected]
Snow-ice forms on top of sea ice under negative freeboard, once brine or seawater �oods the base
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 72
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1030-1200)Session:40201
Ocean-atmosphere interactions and sea ice IRainbow
of snow and freezes there. Snow-ice is widespread in the spring Antarctic sea ice zone, because ofabundant snow falls on relatively thin ice. Here, we focus on the freezing process, using three ap-proaches: (i) an isolated system model based on energy, water and salt conservation; (ii) laboratoryexperiments - a NaCl solution poured into grated ice (a proxy for snow) in a cryogenic container -; and (iii) �eld observations at the SIMBA drift station (Bellingshausen Sea, Antarctica, 10/2007).Our analysis highlights three main conclusions. (i) Solid snow ice can form provided that its brinevolume is < 40%. Otherwise, ice crystals are loose and �oat above salt water, stratifying the system.(ii) Since the snow latent heat of fusion largely dominates the energy balance, snow-ice is generallywarm (T>-3oC). T signi�cantly depends on the salinity of salt water, but only marginally on thetemperature of the pre-existing snow [-40, 0oC] or salt water [-1.8, 20oC]. (iii) In a closed system, thesnow-ice salinity S would be >20 g/kg for typical values of seawater salinity and snow density. Inthe �eld, however, S is much smaller (≈10 g/kg), suggesting that salt quickly expells from formingsnow-ice. We discuss the implications for the large-scale progression of �ooding.
11:45Validating processes that impact sea-ice melt-back and freeze-up in coupled limitedarea model simulations of the marginal ice zoneAmy Solomon1, Mimi Hughes1, Ola Persson2, Janet Intrieri21CIRES2Not GivenContact: [email protected]
The dramatic decrease of Arctic sea-ice has led to a new Arctic sea-ice paradigm and to increasedcommercial activity in the Arctic Ocean. Unfortunately, the sea-ice evolution in the new Arcticinvolves the interaction of numerous physical processes in the atmosphere, ice, and ocean, some ofwhich are not yet understood. Many of these interactions involve emerging complex processes that�rst need to be understood and then incorporated into forecast models in order to realize the goal ofuseful sea-ice forecasting. In this study we use a limited area coupled atmosphere-sea ice-mixed layerocean model to simulate and validate case studies of autumn freeze-up and melt-back processes inthe near-ice open water and marginal ice zone (MIZ). Diagnostic studies will be presented that focuson quantifying and validating the atmospheric forcing of sea-ice movement through stress and stressdeformation and atmospheric forcing of sea-ice melt and formation through energy �uxes. Errors inthe simulations of clouds, atmospheric processes, and surface energy �uxes will be quanti�ed withmeasurements of the ocean state, surface energy balance, and cloud structures collected in the MIZduring the 2014 Arctic Clouds in Summer Experiment (ACSE) �eld campaign.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 73
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1030-1200)Session:50601
Acoustics in Oceanography and marine sciences: from tropics to poles ISpearhead
10:30The Certainties and Uncertainties when assessing noise impact on marine mammalsHarald Yurk11Jasco Applied SciencesContact: [email protected]
An observed increase of more than 12dB re. 1 µ Pa rmsSPL in ocean background noise overthe last three decades primarily due to shipping and a parallel growing number of marine seismicexploration and subsequent drilling activities de�nes a need to assess the e�ects of noise on marinewildlife accurately. In particular marine mammals rely on acoustic signalling not only to maintaincontact with each other which can span distances of a few hundred metres in smaller toothed whalesto more than 500 kilometres for large baleen whales, but also to �nd food. Assessing acoustic impacton cetacean typically involves assessing physical injury, such as lethal (e.g. trauma and permanenthearing loss across important sections of the hearing range) and non-lethal health e�ects ( e.g.temporary hearing loss and physiological stress). Indirect e�ects, however, can be as detrimentalto the long term well-being of individual animals and populations but are much more di�cult toidentify. Those indirect e�ects include behavioural changes that e�ect foraging and mating successas well as temporary and permanent exclusion of groups and populations from important parts oftheir ranges, to long term e�ects decreasing the genetic and learned trait diversity in populationsthat can lead to extinction. The latter e�ects on what is called the evolutionary potential of apopulation is most di�cult to assess because e�ects can be initially small and incremental and �rstonly e�ect individuals that have traits not shared by a large number of individuals in a population.Acoustic impact, however, can get ampli�ed if other factors such as the loss of a prey species callsfor a wider range of adaptive �exibility and the need of those genetic and behavioural outliers forthe population to survive. Here, I will present information of the di�erent types of impact andthe currently used types of impact assessments and the gaps that need to be �lled to improveassessments.
10:45Surveying right whale habitats using glider-mounted sonarTetjana Ross1, Kim Davies1, Chris Taggart1, Adam Comeau1, Richard Davis1,Mark Baumgartner2,Bruce Martin3, Gennavieve Ruckdeschel11Dalhousie University2Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution3JASCO Applied SciencesContact: [email protected]
The North Atlantic right whale is an endangered species that comes into Atlantic Canadian watersto feed in the late summer and early fall. There are several known habitats around Nova Scotia.Our previous work found that local circulation e�ects concentrate calanoid copepods at favourabledepths in the known habitat. We believe that there are many unknown right whale habitatsbecause the known habitats are periodically abandoned during the prime feeding season. In theknown feeding habitats high-frequency sonar has proven useful in mapping copepod distributionsas an assessment of habitat quality. In an e�ort to better understand the variability of copepods
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 74
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1030-1200)Session:50601
Acoustics in Oceanography and marine sciences: from tropics to poles ISpearhead
in the known habitats and to search for new potential habitats, we equipped an Ocean TrackingNetwork Slocum glider with a 300-kHz echosounder. In September and October of 2014 it surveyedRoseway Basin, a known right whale habitat on the Scotian Shelf, and has since been collectingacoustic backscatter data on regular OTN transects across the Shelf. These preliminary data willbe presented and discussed in the context of right whale observations derived from passive acousticsand visual surveys in September 2014.
11:00Three-dimensional noise modeling in shallow water environmentsDavid Barclay1, Ying-Tsong Lin21Dalhousie University2Woods Hole Oceanographic InstitutionContact: [email protected]
The power spectral density, vertical coherence, and horizontal coherence (directionality) of surface-generated ambient noise in shallow water environments depend on local bathymetry and oceanog-raphy. In certain bathymetric conditions, horizontal refraction and re�ection must be consideredin order to accurately predict the spatial properties of the noise �eld. In an idealized Gaussiansubmarine canyon, the sound �eld can be described using the method of normal mode decomposi-tion applied to a three-dimensional longitudinally invariant wave-guide. The modal decompositionis carried out in the vertical and across-canyon horizontal directions and gives a semi- analyticalsolution describing the three-dimensional topographic e�ects. Additionally, the noise �eld for an ar-bitrary bathymetry can be computed using wave-equation reciprocity and either a three-dimensionalcylindrical co-ordinates parabolic equation (PE) model or an ensemble of horizontally uncoupledradial PE (Nx2D) sound propagation computations. Inter-comparison of these models highlightsthe e�ect of the three-dimensional topography on the vertical coherence and mean-noise level asa function of arrival direction. In the Gaussian canyon case, these e�ects include the focusing ofnoise along the canyon axis and the frequency perturbation of vertical coherence minima.
11:15Ambient noise from turbidity currents in Howe SoundMatthew Hatcher1, Alex Hay1, John Hughes Clarke21Dalhousie University2University of New BrunswickContact: [email protected] Squamish River enters Howe Sound near Squamish, British Columbia. Due to the sedimentcarried by the river the interface between the fjord and river is characterized by a fan delta and deltafront descending into the several 100 m deep fjord. Sediment mass transport from the delta into thefjord is dominated by discrete turbidity current events which have incised semi-permanent channelson the delta front and out onto the prodelta. Subsequent turbidity currents �ow through thesechannels modifying them and the bedforms within them. During a �eld trip in the spring of 2013measurements were made which detected roughly 18 discrete turbidity currents with head speeds upto about 3 m/s. This presentation will summarize the broadband (100 Hz to 200 kHz ) hydrophone
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 75
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1030-1200)Session:50601
Acoustics in Oceanography and marine sciences: from tropics to poles ISpearhead
data, focussing on the noise these turbidity currents produced and the mechanism involved in thissound production. Further, the variability in this noise is compared to independently measuredturbidity current and sediment properties, with the potential future goal being passive acousticmonitoring of sediment transport events of this type.
11:30The spectrum levels of ambient noise sources in Folger Passage.Kanachi Angadi1, Len Zedel11Memorial UniversityContact: [email protected] trying to detect a target in the underwater world, one of the most challenging tasks isto hear the target through all the background noise. This is like hearing to a friend talk whilestanding in a huge noisy rock concert! In the ocean too, what are the sources of background noise?As identi�ed by Gordon M.Wenz in his foundation work on Acoustic ambient noise in the ocean,characteristic noise spectra result from di�erent levels of shipping tra�c, sea state conditions(i.e. wind speeds). The topic of underwater noise pollution due to oil & gas exploration receivesimmense media coverage and is a genuine concern to scientists and researchers. Studying acousticpropagation from noise sources has become one of the standard environmental impact assessmentcriteria for o�shore developments. Such propagation studies are very useful and e�ective in orderto determine the region of severe impact and to understand the area over which sound levels exceednormal background levels and are known to interfere with the hearing in marine mammals and�shes. In order to understand natural variations in naturally occurring background sound levels,variations in spectrum levels and the spectral form of ambient noise at the Folger passage werestudied for a 12-day period starting May 15th 2014 till May 27th 2014 with the hydrophone atFolger Deep Instrument Platform at a depth of 95m. The observation site is in a continental shelfarea located at Lat: 48.81378N and Lon: -125.28095W o� the west coast of Vancouver Island. Weplan to compare this observed variability with observations from deeper location sites in that samearea such as the Barkley Canyon or the Cascadia Basin. This data was collected by the NeptuneObservatory as part of the Ocean Networks Canada, University of Victoria, BC, Canada.
11:45An study of underwater sound propagation in Barrow Strait using the CONCEPTSGIOPS ocean prediction systemJinshan Xu1, Fraser Davidson1, Jim Hamilton11Fisheries and Oceans CanadaContact: [email protected]
The acoustic environment in Arctic Ocean has gained signi�cant focus in recent years due to theever-decreasing sea-ice cover leading to increased opportunity of an open water trade route throughthe Arctic ocean. As a principal pathway between the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans, Bar-row Strait has been chosen as the location to monitor the ocean environment in the real timeon a continuous basis using acoustic, cable and satellite communications. This talk reports onsound propagation studies in this area using an underwater acoustic propagation model fed with
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 76
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1030-1200)Session:50601
Acoustics in Oceanography and marine sciences: from tropics to poles ISpearhead
background oceanographic information output from the operational CONCEPTS Global Ice-OceanPrediction System (GIOPS). The objectives are to determine optimal frequency and location pa-rameters for underwater acoustic communication systems for Barrow Straight. This takes in accountthe variation of sound propagation properties due to the seasonal changing of ocean environmentwhich includes temperature, salinity and ice-surface.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 77
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1330-1500)Session:310
Detection and Attribution of High Latitude Climate ChangeFitzsimmons
13:30Detection and attribution of recent Arctic sea-ice melting patternsSeung-Ki Min1, Joonghyeok Heo1, Yeon-Hee Kim1, Baek-Min Kim2, Seong-Joong Kim2
1Pohang University of Science and Technology2Korea Polar Research InstituteContact: Seung-Ki
Arctic sea-ice has declined sharply during recent three decades with seasonally and regionally di�er-ent melting patterns. Identifying causes of the observed spatial patterns of Arctic sea-ice loss is crit-ical to better understanding of global and regional impacts of the Arctic cryosphere, but it remainsuncertain. This study carries out a quantitative attribution analysis of the observed Arctic sea-iceretreat during 1979-2012 by comparing observed and model-simulated melting trend patterns usingan optimal �ngerprinting technique. Satellite observations show overall decreasing trends acrossall seasons with stronger melting occurring over Kara-Laptev Seas, East Siberia-Chukchi Seas, andBarents Seas during warm seasons. The CMIP5 multi-model simulations including greenhouse-gasforcing can largely reproduce the observed trend patterns, enabling detection of human in�uence,but with weaker amplitude than observations. Recent studies has also suggested that Atlantic Mul-tidecadal Oscillation (AMO) can a�ect regional variations of Arctic sea-ice cover, particularly inthe Atlantic sector. In order to consider this into our analysis, we �rst estimate 'natural' in�uencesof AMO on regional sea- ice extents using unforced long-term multi-model control simulations, andthen remove the estimated 'natural' AMO in�uences from both observations and all model simula-tions. Detection results are found to be insensitive to the use of these AMO-residual sea-ice trends,suggesting that the recent Arctic sea ice loss is mostly due to human-induced increase in greenhousegases.
14:00Application of the optimal �ngerprinting method to detection and attribution of Arcticsea ice changeBennit Mueller1, Nathan Gillett2, Adam Monahan1, Francis Zwiers31University of Victoria2Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis3Paci�c Climate Impacts ConsortiumContact: [email protected] observations of Arctic sea ice are available since the 1980s and suggest that Arctic sea iceis undergoing immense change. During the satelite era, Arctic sea ice has been declining in bothextent and volume. Previous studies have suggested these changes are the result of a combinationof internal climate variability as well as external climate forcings. The Canadian Sea Ice and SnowEvolution Network (CanSISE) is focussing on the assessment of the current and near future seaice conditions in the Arctic. Climate models can be used to simulate internal climate variabilityin the absence of external forcings. Climate models can also simulate expected response patterns,namely �ngerprints, of the climate system in the presence of external forcings. Our detection andattribution study evaluates the extent to which response patterns (�ngerprints) from the CoupledModel Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations explain observed changes in Artic sea
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 78
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1330-1500)Session:310
Detection and Attribution of High Latitude Climate ChangeFitzsimmons
ice extent.14:15
Comparison of observed and simulated sea ice extent in the Arctic and Antarctic priorto 1979Marie-Éve Gagné1, John Fyfe1, Nathan Gillett1, Igor Polyakov2, Gregory Flato11Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis2International Arctic Research CenterContact: [email protected]
Continuous monitoring of the polar regions by satellites since 1979 has shown that the Arctic sea iceextent (SIE) exhibits a dramatic decrease, which has been attributed to anthropogenic in�uence,while the Antarctic SIE has increased slightly and the exact driving mechanisms remain uncertain.By contrast, climate model simulations including all major anthropogenic and natural climatein�uences simulate an average decrease in SIE from 1979 to present days over both polar regions.Here we use recently recovered satellite-based estimates of Antarctic SIE for September 1964 andMay-July 1966, as well as an updated dataset without in�lling based on in situ observations fromthe Eastern portion of the Arctic, to take a longer view and assess the consistency of observed andsimulated changes in SIE in each region, hence extending the current observational record. Whilethere is evidence of inconsistency between observed trends in Antarctic SIE and those simulatedsince 1979, particularly in models with realistic interannual variability, the observed trends sincethe mid-1960s fall within the 5-95% range of simulated trends. Thus, our results broadly supportthe hypothesis that the recent increase in Antarctic SIE is due to internal variability, though thereasons for the inconsistency in simulated and observed changes since 1979 remain to be determined.On the other hand, the dataset for the Arctic shows widespread increases in annual mean sea iceconcentration between 1945 and 1975, consistent with climate model simulations of an aerosol-drivenincrease over this period. This behavior is also consistent with a well- documented Arctic coolingover the 1945-1975 period, itself largely driven by aerosol increases. These results challenge theperception that Arctic sea ice extent was unperturbed by human in�uence until the 1970s, showinginstead that it has exhibited forced multi-decadal variations through the 20th century.
14:30Detection, Attribution and Extreme Climate and Weather EventsFrancis Zwiers11University of VictoriaContact: [email protected]
Climate change detection and attribution (D&A) research over the past decade has increasinglyconcerned itself with questions concerning changes in the frequency and intensity of rare, highimpact weather and climate events (extremes). While D&A methods appropriate to extremes arenot completely settled, the science consistently indicates that human in�uence is responsible forobserved changes in the intensity and/or frequency of temperature extremes, and increasingly often,in precipitation extremes. A recent further development is a gathering interest in event attribution,which is loosely de�ned as the identi�cation of external factors that may have contributed to the
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 79
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1330-1500)Session:310
Detection and Attribution of High Latitude Climate ChangeFitzsimmons
intensity or likelihood of speci�c events, such as the European 2003 heat wave or the Californiadrought. This talk will compare and contrast di�erences in the questions posed by D&A research(what are the causes of observed long-term changes in extremes) and event attribution (what are thecauses of event that has just occurred), and in the methods that are used to answer these questions.Event attribution is challenging because of selection bias, the need for timeliness, and the di�cultyin identifying relevant controlling factors, but surmounting these challenges, coupled with ongoingD&A research on long-term changes in extremes and seasonal-to-interannual forecasting, couldeventually lead to reliable short-term climate forecasts of variations in the likelihood of occurrenceof extremes that also take into account long-term changes in likelihood and intensity that are causedby anthropogenic forcing of the climate system.
14:45Observationally-constrained climate projections beyond the near termNathan Gillett11Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment CanadaContact: [email protected]
Model projections of the simulated responses to future greenhouse gas and aerosol changes may bescaled up or down, based on the regression coe�cients which give the best �t between simulatedand observed changes over the historical period. Projections based on this approach underpinnedassessed projections of near-term warming in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. However, thisscaling approach only works well under conditions of steadily increasing radiative forcing, and notunder stabilised forcing conditions, as found for example in the RCP 4.5 scenario by the end ofthe century. Hence long-term climate projections presented in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Reportwere based simply on the ensemble of available climate models, with no observational constraintsapplied, even though, for example, some climate models exhibited signi�cantly stronger warmingin response to greenhouse gas increases than observational estimates. Here I discuss and applyan approach to deriving observationally-constrained projections of long-term climate change basedon weighting climate models according to the level of agreement between their Transient ClimateResponses and an observationally-constrained estimate.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 80
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1330-1500)Session:70602
Hydro-climatic Variability Change and Extremes II: Modelling Snow and Land Surface ProcessesGaribaldi A
13:30Using arti�cial neural networks to emulate the VIC hydrological model: Applicationto stream�ow and snow water equivalent projectionsWilliam Hsieh1, Alex Cannon2, Markus Schnorbus21University of British Columbia2Paci�c Climate Impacts ConsortiumContact: [email protected] make hydrological change projections at the regional or catchment scale in British Columbia,Canada, the Paci�c Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) forced the Variable In�ltration Capac-ity (VIC) hydrological model at a daily time step with a subset of 23 downscaled climate modelprojections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) ensemble. Thecomputational cost of performing such hydrological projections for the full set of more than 130CMIP3 simulations and for the next generation CMIP5 simulations is very high. To make suchhydrological projections computationally a�ordable, the arti�cial neural network method is used toemulate the VIC model, i.e. ANN is trained using predictors from the CMIP3 climate projectionsand using predictands (stream�ow and snow water equivalent, SWE) from the VIC model output.Once trained, the ANN could potentially replace the VIC model in performing the hydrological pro-jections. Since there are various greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, if the ANN is trained with thedata from one emissions scenario, would it still emulate the VIC model accurately if supplied withpredictors from a di�erent emissions scenario? Tests for the Campbell River watershed showed thatthe ANN trained with data from the SRES B1 emissions scenario performed well when suppliedwith data from the SRES A2 scenario (with higher emission rate). Following model validation,the ANN emulator was supplied with a large ensemble of CMIP5 climate model outputs (> 150simulations) to obtain daily stream�ow and SWE projections for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5scenarios.
13:45Potential Impacts of Projected Climate on Water Availability in the Western CanadianRiver BasinsYonas Dibike1, Terry Prowse1, Barrie Bonsal1, Hayley Linton21Environment Canada2University of VictoriaContact: [email protected]
This study examines the projected changes in hydro-climate variables over western Canadian riverbasins under two emission scenarios using statistically downscaled high resolution climate data fromthe latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). While individual GCM projectionsvary on the rate and seasonality of changes, they all indicate similar spatial and temporal trends.The highest projected increases in temperature and precipitation are mostly in the northern basins,with some decreases in summer precipitation in the southern basins. Projected changes in monthlysnow water equivalent (SWE) values computed from the downscaled daily precipitation and tem-perature data clearly indicate the spatio-temporal shifts in the evolution of snow accumulationand melt. Moreover, evolution of the 12 and 3 - months standardized precipitation and evapo-
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 81
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1330-1500)Session:70602
Hydro-climatic Variability Change and Extremes II: Modelling Snow and Land Surface ProcessesGaribaldi A
transpiration indices (SPEI) indicate a gradual increase in the magnitude and duration of watersurplus (positive SPEI) in the northern basins, while the reverse was found for the southern basinsthat show a gradual increase in water de�cit (negative SPEI) . Such water de�cits would also bemore pronounced in summer when almost all river basins in western Canada, with the exception ofthose located at the extreme north, are projected to experience decreasing water availability withpotential increases in the frequency of severe water de�cit over most of the southern and easternbasins. In general, the results of this study indicates the potential direction for spatial and seasonalredistribution of western Canadian water resources towards the end of this century.
14:00Assessing climate change impacts on the snowpacks and water availability of the FraserRiver Basin, British ColumbiaSiraj ul Islam1, Stephen Déry11University of Northern British ColumbiaContact: [email protected] in air temperature and precipitation will induce important modi�cations to the hydrologicalregimes and water resources of western North America. Increases in winter and spring air temper-atures will alter the precipitation phase and consequently the ratio of snowfall to rainfall and thewater volume stored into snowpacks will change substantially. This study examines these climaticchanges focusing on the snow hydrology of Fraser River Basin (FRB) of British Columbia usingthe Variable In�ltration Capacity (VIC) model. Statistically downscaled forcing datasets of GlobalClimate Models (GCMs) runs based on two di�erent scenarios are used to drive the VIC model forthe 30-year baseline (1981-2010) and future (2040-2069 and 2070-2099) time periods. The analysesare performed over 11 major watersheds of the FRB to evaluate the future changes in snow waterequivalent (SWE) and runo� (R). The change in the ratio (Rsr) of maximum SWE to R is alsoassessed to estimate future contribution of snow to runo� in the FRB. Despite the variation acrossGCM outputs over the FRB, a signi�cant decline in the snow water availability is revealed from theensemble mean simulations of the VIC model. In the latter part of the 21st century, the signi�cantchanges such as earlier onsets of snow melt, more winter and spring runo� and decreases in the Rsrratio are found in the hydrological simulations. A consistent and signi�cant decrease in SWE is seenfor the majority of the FRB. Overall these �ndings suggest that the climate warming will result ina substantial decline in the winter snow accumulation and snow covered areas and any increase inprecipitation will not compensate for the e�ects of air temperature increases, therefore decreasingSWE. This study could have important rami�cations for the development of strategies to addressthe climate change problem and to design water management systems for snow dominant regionsof western Canada.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 82
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1330-1500)Session:70602
Hydro-climatic Variability Change and Extremes II: Modelling Snow and Land Surface ProcessesGaribaldi A
14:15Intercomparison of snow depth and snow water equivalent measurements during WMOSPICECraig Smith1, Samuel Morin2, Audrey Reverdin31Climate Research Division, Environment Canada2Météo-France3MeteoSwissContact: [email protected]
The Snow-on-Ground component of the WMO Solid Precipitation Intercomparison Experiment(SPICE) has the following objectives: 1) assessing snow depth and snow water equivalent instrumentperformance, 2) examining instrument thresholds of minimum snow depth (or SWE), includingthe impact of surface targets (if applicable), 3) examining appropriate and practicable temporalresolutions of measurements, 4) linking Snow-on-Ground measurements to gauge measurements and5) assessing spatial representation of point measurements. The intent is to make recommendationsto instrument and data users on best practices. Intercomparisons of 4 varieties of SWE sensorsand 9 varieties of snow depth sensors, employing a variety of measurement techniques, have beenundertaken at 10 WMOSPICE sites. Each of the 10 participating sites o�ers unique circumstancesto assess instrumentation including low temperatures, ephemeral or inconsistent snow conditions,and extreme alpine snow packs. Each site provides reference measurements for intercomparisonconsisting of manual or photographic observations of snow stakes (for snow depth) and bulk densitysampling (for snow water equivalent). Select results of the intercomparison for the 2013/2014 and2014/2015 winter seasons are presented.
14:30Spatialization of the SNOWPACK snow model in the Canadian Arctic for Peary cari-bou winter grazing conditions assessmentFélix Ouellet1, Alexandre Langlois2, Cheryl-Ann Johnson3, Agnes Richards41Groupe de Recherche Interdisciplinaire sur les Milieux Polaires GRIMP, Université de Sherbrookeet Centre d'Études Nordiques, Université Laval2Groupe de Recherche Interdisciplinaire sur les Milieux Polaires GRIMP, Université de Sherbrooke,Sherbrooke, et Centre d'Études Nordiques, Université Laval3Landscape Science and Technology, Environment Canada4Climate Research Division, Environment CanadaContact: [email protected]
Peary caribou is the most northern designatable unit of the caribou species and its populationdeclined by 70% over the last three generations. The Species at Risk Public Registry of Canadaidenti�es di�cult grazing conditions through the snow cover as being the most signi�cant factorcontributing to this decline. The recently observed warming in the Arctic has led to the persistentformation of dense snow layers and ice crusts blocking access to food. This phenomenon is expectedto increase in numbers and magnitude over the next few decades. Thus, the project is a part of amain assessment by Environment Canada on Peary caribou's survival, which includes assessment offood spatial distribution and changes in the sea ice formation over the years. The study area is the
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 83
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1330-1500)Session:70602
Hydro-climatic Variability Change and Extremes II: Modelling Snow and Land Surface ProcessesGaribaldi A
Peary caribou habitat, which roughly covers the whole Canadian Arctic Archipelago. In order tosimulate the snow cover, the Swiss model SNOWPACK is used. First, a coupling procedure implyingthe model and meteorological data was de�ned. Our group recently obtained climate simulationsfrom the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM and CanRCM4) which are used as input toSNOWPACK. Multiple validations were conducted, using in situ data and remote sensing. Then,statistical comparisons were performed locally between the outputted snow pro�les and cariboupopulations, that for three critical times of year for Peary caribou which are calving, breeding andforaging. The snow cover parameters therefore identi�ed as being the most bound with cariboupopulations were snow density and grain type. Density was re�ned as maximum, average, and over-threshold values. The project's main objective, which is the spatialization of those retained snowparameters over the study area, is now partially reached: snow pro�le creation was automatizedfor CRCM input data, extraction of the re�ned density parameters is partially automatized, and�nally a prototype of the vector and raster deliverables has been designed.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 84
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1330-1500)Session:50202
Collaboration in development application and analysis of ocean forecasting models IIGaribaldi B
13:30The pathways of long period and steady state barotropic �ows through the ArcticArchipelago.David Greenberg1, Charles Hannah21Bedford Institute of Oceanography2Institute of Ocean SciencesContact: [email protected]
Seawater input to the North Atlantic from the Arctic Ocean between Greenland and the Canadianmainland must pass through the Arctic Archipelago, a vast collection of large and small islandsde�ning channels of many scales. The nature of the water mass exchange between these oceans willdepend on the pathways of entrance into and exits from the Archipelago, as this will determinewhere the deep sea - shelf interactions will occur. The scale of global and basin models being usedin climate related studies is not detailed enough to give a good representation of the area. In thiswork we use several models running on a detailed unstructured triangular mesh, to try to pin downthe nature of the barotropic �ow through the complex structure of the Arctic Archipelago. The aimis to help determine how the larger domain models might represent this area to more accuratelycompute the exchange of water masses.
13:45Validation and inter-comparison against observations of GODAE Ocean View OceanPrediction Systems for the Northwestern AtlanticJinshan Xu1, Fraser Davidson1, Gregory Smith2, Youyu Lu3, Fabrice Hernandez4, Charly Regnier4,Marie Drevillon4, Andy Ryan5, Spindler Todd6, Peter Oke71Fisheries and Oceans Canada DFO2Environment Canada3Fisheries and Oceans Canada4Mercator Ocean, Toulouse, France5Met O�ce, Exeter, UK6NOAA-NCEP, Washington, USA7Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, AustraliaContact: [email protected]
For weather forecasts, validation of forecast performance is done at the end user level as well asby the meteorological forecast centers. In the development of Ocean Prediction Capacity, the samelevel of care for ocean forecast performance and validation is needed. Herein we present resultsfrom a validation against observations for the North West Atlantic of 6 Global Ocean Forecast Sys-tems under the GODAE OceanView International Collaboration Network. These systems includethe Global Ocean Ice Forecast System (GIOPS) developed by the Government of Canada, twosystems PSY3 and PSY4 from the French Mercator-Ocean Ocean Forecasting Group, the FOAMsystem from UK met o�ce, HYCOM-RTOFS from NOAA/NCEP/NWA of USA, and the Aus-tralian Bluelink-OceanMAPS system from the CSIRO, the Australian Meteorological Bureau andthe Australian Navy. The observation data used in the comparison are sea surface temperature,sub-surface temperature, sub-surface salinity and sea level anomaly. Results of the inter-comparison
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 85
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1330-1500)Session:50202
Collaboration in development application and analysis of ocean forecasting models IIGaribaldi B
demonstrate forecast performance limits, strengths and weaknesses of each of the six systems. Thiswork establishes validation protocols and routines by which all new prediction systems developedunder the CONCEPTS Collaborative Network will be benchmarked prior to approval for oper-ations. This includes anticipated delivery of CONCEPTS regional prediction systems over thenext two years including a pan Canadian 1/12th degree resolution ice ocean prediction system andlimited area 1/36th degree resolution prediction systems. The validation approach of comparingforecasts to observations at the time and location of the observation is called Class 4 metrics.It has been adopted by major international ocean prediction centers, and will be recommendedto JCOMM-WMO as a component for routine validation approach for operational oceanographyworldwide.
14:00Comparison between Doppler sonar observations from a seismic survey ship and oceancirculation analysis results from the CONCEPTS Global Ice Ocean Prediction Systemover the Grand BanksLen Zedel1, Yanan Wang1, Jinshan Xu2, Fraser Davidson21Memorial University of Newfoundland2Department of Fisheries and OceansContact: [email protected] marine seismic survey operations, oceanographic measurements are often collected for oper-ational or reference purposes. Typical observations will include CTD pro�les but Doppler velocitypro�les are also often recorded. These data provide a potential resource for enhancing our under-standing and description of the oceans, but are currently mostly used only for the seismic studyduring which they were collected. We explore the potential of such data by comparing 67 days ofDoppler velocity pro�les with equivalent pro�les from the CONCEPTS Global Ice-Ocean Predic-tion System (GIOPS) output over a 30,000 km2 region of the Grand Banks and adjacent watersto depths of about 1000 m. Doppler data were collected with a 75 kHz RDInstruments AcousticDoppler Current Pro�ler (ADCP). This instrument would normally provide pro�les to 500 m depthwith 10 m depth resolution but because of the operating con�guration selected, only near surfacevelocities (to about a 10 m depth) are considered reliable. When averaged data are comparedto model output, the agreement provides compelling support both for the quality of the ADCPdata and the model. Both data sets show similar long period variations but shorter period (iner-tial) responses are also in agreement. These results provide motivation for accessing oceanographicmetadata from seismic surveys on a more routine basis.
14:15Automation Framework for a Regional Ocean Forecast ModelDoug Latornell1, Susan Allen1, Nancy Soontiens1, Idalia Machuca11Earth, Ocean and Atmostpheric Sciences, University of British ColumbiaContact: [email protected] SalishSea real-time model system produces two forecasts and a nowcast daily. Without humanintervention, the automation system collects the required forcing data from various web services,runs the model and publishes results in the form of plots on several web pages. Here we will present
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 86
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1330-1500)Session:50202
Collaboration in development application and analysis of ocean forecasting models IIGaribaldi B
the automation framework that accomplishes those tasks. It runs across two computer systemswith the ONC cloud computing facility running the numerical model (NEMO in our case), anda local Linux server doing everything else. The automation system has a modular, asynchronousarchitecture that is coordinated by a messaging framework. We will discuss the roles of the managerprocess that coordinates the sequencing and operation of a collection of worker scripts. Of particularinterest are the run- NEMO and NEMO-watcher workers that make it possible to work across thetwo computer systems. Techniques that make the system reasonably fault tolerant will also bediscussed. The modular design easily allows contributions from researchers with a variety of skillssets to contribute to the framework to the bene�t of the project and its knowledge transfer tostakeholders.
14:30Discussion on development, validation and application of high-resolution regional oceanmodelsYouyu Lu1, Fraser Davidson1, Gregory Smith2, Susan Allen3, Paul Myers4, Jinyu Sheng5, KeithThompson51Fisheries and Oceans Canada2Environment Canada3University of British Columbia4University of Alberta5Dalhousie UniversityContact: [email protected]
A growing number of high-resolution regional ocean models based on the Nucleus for EuropeanModelling of the Ocean (NEMO) are being developed for major Canadian projects such as CON-CEPTS, MEOPAR, VITALS, GEOTRACES and WCTSS. The development has bene�ted greatlyfrom sharing expertise, code, software and data among various groups from government laborato-ries and universities. This presentation reviews progress and challenges, and plans for major modelcon�gurations, followed by discussions on code versions and metrics for model evaluation. Scienti�cand operational applications of the models will also be discussed.
14:45Discussion on development, validation and application of nearshore ocean modelsYouyu Lu1, Susan Haigh1, Michael Foreman1, Charles Hannah1, Haibo Niu2, Youyu Lu11Fisheries and Oceans Canada2Dalhousie UniversityContact: [email protected]
The unstructured-grid �nite volume ocean model FVCOM has been applied for a growing numberof applications including the Canadian WCTSS project. The development has bene�ted greatlyfrom sharing expertise, code, software and data among various groups in Fisheries and OceansCanada and collaborators. This presentation reviews the progress, challenges and plans of majormodel con�gurations, followed with discussions on code versions, forcing data, linkage to larger-scale NEMO model, and model evaluation metrics. Scienti�c and operational applications of the
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 87
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1330-1500)Session:50202
Collaboration in development application and analysis of ocean forecasting models IIGaribaldi B
models will also be discussed.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 88
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1330-1500)Session:707
Coupled Environmental Prediction: From hours to seasonsHarmony
13:30UK Environmental Prediction - integration and evaluation at the convective scaleHuw Lewis1, Ed Blockley1, Gilbert Brunet2, Chris Harris1, Martin Best1, Andrew Saulter1, JasonHolt3, Lucy Bricheno3, Ashley Brerton3, Eleanor Blyth4, Alberto Martinez de la Torre41Met O�ce2Environment Canada3National Oceanography Centre4Centre for Ecology and HydrologyContact: huw.lewis@meto�ce.gov.uk
It has long been understood that accurate prediction and warning of the impacts of severe weatherrequires an integrated approach to forecasting. This was well demonstrated in the UK throughoutwinter 2013/14 when an exceptional run of severe winter storms, often with damaging high windsand intense rainfall led to signi�cant damage from the large waves and storm surge along coastlines,and from saturated soils, high river �ows and signi�cant �ooding inland. The substantial impactson individuals, businesses and infrastructure indicate a pressing need to understand better the valuethat might be delivered through more integrated environmental prediction. To address this need,the Met O�ce, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology and National Oceanography Centre have begunto develop the foundations of a coupled high resolution probabilistic forecast system for the UK atkm-scale. This links together existing model components of the atmosphere, coastal ocean, landsurface and hydrology. Our initial focus on a 2-year Prototype project will demonstrate the UKcoupled prediction concept in research mode, including an analysis of the winter 2013/14 stormsand its impacts. By linking science development to operational collaborations such as the UKNatural Hazards Partnership, we can ensure that science priorities are rooted in user requirements.This presentation will provide an overview of UK environmental prediction activities and an updateon progress during the �rst year of the Prototype project. We will present initial results from thecoupled model development and discuss the challenges to realise the potential of integrated regionalcoupled forecasting for improving predictions and applications.
13:45Overview of an integrated marine Arctic prediction system for METAREAsC. Harold Ritchie1, Natacha Bernier1, Mark Buehner1, Tom Carrieres2, Serge Desjardins3, LucFillion1, Diane Johnston3, Jean-François Lemieux1, Pierre Pellerin1, Gregory Smith1, GillesGarric41Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada2Canadian Ice Service, Environment Canada3Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada4Mercator-Ocean, Toulouse, FranceContact: [email protected]
In December 2007 Canada accepted o�cial designation as the Issuing Service for meteorologicalMarine Safety Information in the form of forecasts / warnings and ice bulletins for METAREAsXVII and XVIII as part of the Global Maritime Distress and Safety System. These areas arein the Arctic bordering on Canada. An important part of Environment Canada's involvement
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 89
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1330-1500)Session:707
Coupled Environmental Prediction: From hours to seasonsHarmony
is the development of an integrated marine Arctic prediction system and satellite products insupport of monitoring and warnings. In particular, our group is working on the development,validation and implementation of marine forecasts using a regional high resolution coupled multi-component (atmosphere, land, snow, ice, ocean and wave) modelling and data assimilation systemto predict near surface atmospheric conditions, sea ice (concentration, thickness, pressure, drift,ice edge), freezing spray, waves and ocean conditions (temperature and currents). The core of thesystem consists of a high resolution limited area con�guration of the GEM (Global EnvironmentalMulti-scale) model as the atmospheric component coupled to the NEMO (Nucleus for EuropeanModelling of the Ocean) ocean model, the CICE ice model and the WAVEWATCHIII wave model.An ice-ocean data assimilation system is being developed in collaboration with Mercator-Océanusing their system for ocean data assimilation together with the ice analysis system developed atEnvironment Canada. The METAREAs research and development is a cornerstone activity withinthe Canadian Operational Network of Coupled Environmental PredicTion Systems (CONCEPTS).This presentation will provide an overview of these activities, illustrate systems implemented anddevelopments in progress at the completion of the �rst phase of METAREAs, discuss plans for futureoperational systems, and link with other complementary presentations at this meeting.
14:00Insights in low-level polar temperature biases from atmospheric-sea ice coupling in theNavy's Global Coupled Modeling SystemNeil Barton1, Chain Chen2, Melinda Peng1, Tim Whitcomb11Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey2SAICContact: [email protected]
Low-level temperature prediction in the Polar Regions is historically di�cult for global models. Dif-�culties are caused from the extreme cold and dry conditions, as well as the role of low-level cloudson surface temperatures. We examine low-level temperatures in the Polar Regions using the Navy'sGlobal Coupled Modeling system to understand coupled interactions in low-level temperature pre-diction. The Navy's Global Coupled Modeling system utilizes the Navy's Global EnvironmentalModel (NAVGEM), the Navy's HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), and the Los AlamosNational Laboratory's sea ice (CICE) model for the atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice model respec-tively. The National Uni�ed Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) tools based o� the EarthSystem Modeling Framework (ESMF) is used at the coupler. Data assimilative �ve day hindcastsare run from March 2014 to mid-summer 2014. The transition seasons are a known time period inwhich NAVGEM has di�culties predicting two meter polar temperatures. Stand-alone NAVGEMruns are compared to NAVGEM runs coupled with CICE4 and CICE5. When NAVGEM is coupledwith CICE4, Antarctic low- level temperature become closer to other reanalysis products during thenorthern hemisphere's spring, and the NAVGEM-CICE5 runs have improvements in the Arctic andAntarctic region. Improvements are due to the CICE's calculation of ice temperature. These resultsaid in the development and improvement of NAVGEM's stand-alone parameterizations.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 90
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1330-1500)Session:707
Coupled Environmental Prediction: From hours to seasonsHarmony
14:15Regional Simulations of Summer Arctic Boundary LayersShouping Wang1, Yi Jin1, Sasa Gabersek1, David Hebert1, Pamela Posey1, Rick Allard11Naval Research LaboratoryContact: [email protected]
Profound changes have been occurring in the Arctic. The most signi�cant change is the rapiddecline of sea ice coverage and thickness over past several decades. The observed reduction inArctic sea ice is a consequence of both thermodynamic and dynamic processes, including such fac-tors as preconditioning of the ice cover, changes in cloud coverage, ice export, advection of oceanheat, and ice-albedo feedback. Many crucially interactive physical processes occur in the Arcticboundary layers, where energy exchange at the interface is critical for sea ice evolution and cloudsstrongly interact with sea ice through radiation and turbulence. Our ability of understanding theArctic boundary layer and modeling its temporal evolution and spatial distribution is essentialto understanding the Arctic climate change. This study presents a regional simulation study ofsummer Arctic boundary layers. The analysis includes an evaluation of the simulations duringthe ASCOS (Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study) �eld campaign; it also examines the model abil-ity to simulate some key boundary layer structures observed during ASCOS. COAMPS (CoupledOcean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System) is used in this study. ACNFS (Arctic Cap Now-cast/Forecast System) is used to provide sea ice conditions, including sea ice temperature andconcentration, to COAMPS. An advanced surface layer parameterization based on SHEBA data isimplemented to provide turbulent �uxes at the surface. The simulation domain is con�gured tocontain four grid meshes (45 km, 15 km, 5km and 1.67 km) with 60 levels in the vertical. The modelprovides 24 h twice daily simulations between August 1 and September 10. Observations from AS-COS are used to evaluate simulations results with a focus on the turbulent and cloud structure ofboundary layer. Detailed analyses will be presented in the conference.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 91
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1330-1500)Session:707
Coupled Environmental Prediction: From hours to seasonsHarmony
14:30The Year of Polar Prediction (2017-19)Gregory Smith1, Thomas Jung2, Neil Gordon3, Stephanie Klebe2, Helge Goessling2, Peter Bauer4,David Bromwich5, Jonny Day6, Francisco Doblas-Reyes7, Marika Holland8, Trond Iversen9,Keith Hines101Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada2Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Ger-many3Not Given4European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Model Division Research Department,Shin�eld Park, Reading, UK5Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio,USA6University of Reading, Dept. of Meteorology, Reading, UK7ICREA, Institut Catal8National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, Col-orado, USA9Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway10Ohio State UniversityContact: [email protected]
There has been growing interest in the polar regions in recent years due to the opportunities andrisks associated with anthropogenic climate change. Increasing economic, touristic, transportationand scienti�c activities in polar regions are leading to more demands for enhanced environmentalprediction capabilities to support decision-making. Furthermore, it is increasingly obvious thatweather and climate in the polar regions has an in�uence on the lower latitudes. Recognising this,a number of initiatives are underway which focus on improved polar science and predictions. Oneparticularly important international initiative is the Year of Polar Prediction, or YOPP, which willtake place between mid-2017 and mid-2019, centred on the year 2018. YOPP is a key element ofthe World Weather Research Programme Polar Prediction Project. YOPP is an extended periodof coordinated intensive observational and modelling activities, in order to improve prediction ca-pabilities for the Arctic, the Antarctic, and beyond, on a wide range of time scales from hours toseasons, supporting improved weather and climate services. This concerted e�ort will be augmentedby research into forecast-stakeholder interaction, veri�cation, and a strong educational component.Prediction of sea ice and other key variables such as visibility, wind, and precipitation will be centralto YOPP. The presence of atmospheric linkages between polar and non-polar regions suggests thatthe bene�t of YOPP will extend beyond the polar regions. Here we present the overall plans forYOPP with a particular focus on e�orts within Canada.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 92
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1330-1500)Session:707
Coupled Environmental Prediction: From hours to seasonsHarmony
14:45Analysis of the subgrid-scale variability in a land surface/atmosphere coupled systemMélanie Rochoux1, Stéphane Bélair1, Maria Abrahamowicz1, Pierre Pellerin11Meteorological Research Division, Environment CanadaContact: [email protected]
A persisting challenge with regard to numerical environmental prediction remains to increase theresolution of the land surface prediction system in order to properly capture both spatial and tem-poral heterogeneity in the di�erent surface covers (i.e., land, urban, water, continental ice and seaice). Most o�ine land surface modeling systems such as SPS (formerly known as GEM-Surf) at En-vironment Canada are currently limited to the forcing mode, with no feedback of the surface �uxesto the atmosphere. This work presents the forthcoming two-way coupling approach, combining SPSwith the GEM atmospheric model, in which the land surface is solved at high resolution (2.5-kmhorizontal grid spacing) and in which high-resolution surface �uxes are upscaled to the lowest at-mospheric level (10-km horizontal grid spacing). The subgrid-scale variability of the near-surfacemeteorological variables and the subsequent patterns of the high-resolution surface �uxes at thescale of the atmospheric model grid cell are statistically quanti�ed for di�erent geographic areas(e.g., glaciers, lakes, prairies) and over the diurnal cycle. The numerical results show the bene�ts ofhigh- resolution land surface simulations to account for time-scales and length-scales that are moreconsistent with the scales at which the actual land surface balance is a�ected by the heterogeneousgeophysical �elds (i.e., roughness length, land/water mask, glacier mask, soil texture). They alsohighlight the potential of the GEM-SPS coupled system for improving predictions at the surfaceand in the atmospheric boundary layer through more accurate representations of the surface heat�uxes, in particular for ensemble operational systems.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 93
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1330-1500)Session:40202
Ocean-atmosphere interactions and sea ice IIRainbow
13:30Modeling the atmospheric boundary-layer of the marginal ice zone: an ACCACIAcase study.Rhiannon Davies1, Ian Renfrew1, Roland Von Glasow1, John King2, Ian Brooks31Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, University of East Anglia2British Antarctic Survey3Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, University of LeedsContact: [email protected] boundary layer of the Marginal Ice Zone is poorly represented in models, the presence of bothocean and ice causes problems with representing the surface and its �uxes. This creates errorsin stability and moisture in the simulated boundary layer, thus poorly predicting the onset ofconvection and clouds. The ACCACIA (Aerosol-Cloud Coupling And Climate Interactions in theArctic) project is focused on boundary-layer interactions with low level clouds and the physicaland dynamical processes that control their properties. An aircraft campaign took place in spring2013 with low level �ights over the MIZ around the Svalbard archipelago. Two cases showingboundary-layer transitions across the MIZ during o�ce air�ow �ow have been selected for furtherstudy. Simulations with the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model have been carriedout. This study has speci�cally focused on the sensitivity of the boundary layer to the surfaceparameterizations in the model. Tests with several boundary-layer parameterization schemes showthat the simulated boundary-layer is consistently too deep and well- mixed. This indicates that thethermodynamic structure of the boundary-layer is not sensitive to the choice of parameterizationscheme. This presentation gives an overview of the results of this study and discusses future work toimprove the understanding of the boundary layer of the MIZ and its representation in models.
13:45Finding the source regions of sea ice melting in the marginal ice zone: a LagrangianapproachPatricia DeRepentigny1, Bruno Tremblay11McGill UniversityContact: [email protected]
Arctic sea-ice conditions are determined by the combined action of thermodynamics (ice formationand melting) and the dynamics of drift and deformation. Each fall, new sea ice �oes are formed inthe Arctic Ocean and drift under the action of surface wind and water relative movement. Some ofthese �oes will drift over short distances and melt the next summer, while some will survive andbecome multi-year ice. This complex trajectory of sea ice creates a wide variety of source regionscontributing to the marginal ice zone. The goal of this project is to use Lagrangian backwardtrajectories to analyse the drifting paths of ice towards di�erent peripheral seas where it melts.If thick ice is advected in a peripheral sea, it is less likely to melt the following summer than ifthe ice �oe was thinner. Therefore, determining source regions, which is a proxy for ice thickness,becomes really important. Results from Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) for the pastthree decades have been compared with Polar Path�nder 25km EASE-Grid sea ice motion vectorsfrom NSIDC and show an important bias in source region patterns that can be mainly explain by
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 94
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1330-1500)Session:40202
Ocean-atmosphere interactions and sea ice IIRainbow
the di�erence in atmospheric forcing that drives the ice pack. The same procedure has then beenapplied to the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1-CAM5) large ensemble who is believedto have a better representation of the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean. The completion of thiswork yields a better understanding of the strength and/or limitation of global climate model'spredictions of future ice edge position in view of complex ice dynamics.
14:00Arctic Sea Ice Seasonal Prediction by a Linear Markov ModelXiaojun Yuan1, Dake Chen2, Cuihua Li1, Lei Wang11Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University2State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, SIOContact: [email protected]
A linear Markov model has been developed to predict the ice concentration in the pan Arctic regionat the seasonal time scale, which represents an original e�ort of forecasting Arctic sea ice year aroundwith a reduced-dimension statistical model. The model was built to capture co-variabilities in theatmosphere-ocean-sea ice system de�ned by sea ice concentration, sea surface and air temperature,geopotential height and winds at the 300mb level. Multivariate empirical orthogonal functions ofthese variables served as building blocks of the model. A series of model experiments were carriedout to determine the dimension of the model. The predictive skill of the model was evaluated in across-validated fashion. The model shows considerable skill within the Arctic Basin during summerand fall. Particularly, in the region north of the Chukchi Sea, Beaufort Sea, Eastern Siberian Sea,Kara Sea, and Barents Sea, correlation skills are above 0.6 even at a 9-month lead. Because theArctic Basin is completely frozen in winter and spring, the predictability appears in the seasonal icezone during these seasons. The model has higher skills in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic than inthe Paci�c sector. The model predicts well the phases of September sea ice extent (SIE) variabilitybut underestimates the accelerated decline in SIE, resulting in a systematic model bias. This modelbias can be corrected by a constant bias correction or linear regression bias correction, leading toan improved correlation skill of 0.93 for the 2-month lead SIE prediction.
14:15Multi-year ice replenishment in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago: 1997-2013Stephen Howell1, Chris Derksen1, Larissa Pizzolato2, Michael Brady31Environment Canada2University of Ottawa3University of WaterlooContact: [email protected]
In the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA), multi-year ice (MYI) replenishment from �rst-year iceaging and Arctic Ocean MYI in�ow contribute to the CAA's relatively heavy sea ice conditions atthe end of the summer melt season. We estimate these components using RADARSAT imageryand the Canadian Ice Service Digital Archive and explore processes responsible for interannualvariability from 1997-2013. FYI aging (52±36x103 km2) provides a larger contribution than ArcticOcean MYI in�ow (13±11x103 km2). CAA FYI aging represents ≈10% of the amount that occurs
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 95
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1330-1500)Session:40202
Ocean-atmosphere interactions and sea ice IIRainbow
in the Arctic Ocean. Arctic Ocean MYI in�ow into the CAA represents ≈50% of Nares StraitMYI export to Ba�n Bay and ≈12% of Fram Strait MYI export to the Greenland Sea. FYI agingexhibits dependence on warmer (cooler) summers that increase (decrease) melt evident from strongrelationships to surface air temperature (SAT; r=-0.8), albedo (r=0.87) and total absorbed solarradiation (Qtotal; r=-0.84). Arctic Ocean MYI in�ow is in�uenced by summer sea level pressure(SLP) anomalies over the Beaufort Sea and Canadian Basin (r=-0.57) which shifts the primarysource of Arctic Ocean MYI in�ow between less obstructed M'Clure Strait (low SLP anomalies)and the more obstructed Queen Elizabeth Islands (high SLP anomalies). Over the 17-record,MYI replenishment decreased by 55% from 2005-2012 relative to 1997-2004 followed by large MYIreplenishment once again in 2013. The reduced replenishment period from 2005-2012 was primarilyassociated with more frequent positive SAT, negative albedo and positive Qtotal anomalies thatfacilitated more melt and less FYI aging, together with more frequent high SLP anomalies thatfacilitated less Arctic Ocean MYI in�ow. Large MYI replenishment in 2013 was primarily fromFYI aging attributed to strongly negative SAT and Qtotal anomalies and strongly positive albedothat impeded melt.
14:30Air-Sea Interaction under a Diminishing Sea ice Cover in the Regional Arctic SystemModel (RASM)Wieslaw Maslowski1, Robert Osinski2, Anthony Craig1, Andrew Roberts1, John Cassano3, AliceDuVivier3, Brandon Fisel4, William Gutowski4, Mimi Hughes51Naval Postgraduate School2Institute of Oceanology, Polish Academy of Sciences3University of Colorado in Boulder4Iowa State University5University of Colorado in Boulder and Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAAContact: [email protected]
Some of the largest changes due to climate warming are expected in the Arctic. However, 21st cen-tury projections of the magnitude of these changes vary widely in the latest suite of global climatemodel predictions. Such sensitivities and variations are the source of large uncertainties in recon-structions of the past present and limited skill in projections of future Arctic System states. Thereare a number of reasons for such model limitations and they stem from a combination of coarsemodel resolution, inadequate parameterizations of sub-grid processes, and a limited knowledge ofphysical interactions. One of the least understood limitations is the crudely represented sea icemechanics, which a�ect ocean-ice-atmosphere surface momentum and energy transfer. We demon-strate the capability of the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) in simulating not only observedseasonal to decadal variability and trends in the sea ice cover but also air-sea interactions underchanging climate regimes. RASM is a limited-area, coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere-land model. Itsdomain covers the pan-Arctic region and it is con�gured at an eddy-permitting resolution of 1/12o
for the ice-ocean and 50 km for the atmosphere-land model components. The sea ice componenthas been upgraded to the Los Alamos Community Ice Model version 5 (CICE5), which allows eitherElastic-Viscous-Plastic (EVP) or a new anisotropic (EPA) rheology and incorporates form drag to
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 96
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1330-1500)Session:40202
Ocean-atmosphere interactions and sea ice IIRainbow
more realistically represent sea ice morphology and estimate ice-ocean and ice-atmosphere stresses.We use RASM to investigate the role of sea ice drift and deformation, and resulting air-sea feedbacksbased on results from multiple simulations, using di�erent CICE5 options combined with varyingparameter space, to inter-compare and evaluate model results against observations with emphasison model representation of sea ice thickness distribution and its role in exchanges across the air-seainterface.
14:45Decadal variations of the Arctic water temperature and salinity simulated by NEMOWill Perrie11Bedford Institute of OceanographyContact: [email protected]
In this study, we investigate the decadal variability of water temperature and salinity in the centralArctic Ocean, performing simulations for 1948 to 2009 with the ocean model, NEMO (Nucleus forEuropean Modelling of the Ocean). NEMO is implemented in the Arctic Ocean, forced by GLORYSwater temperature, salinity, current as well as CORE II surface �elds. Out�ows from the 13 largestrivers along the Arctic coast are implemented in the boundary conditions for the Arctic domain.The Neptune e�ect is applied to provide a representation of the cyclonic rim currents along thecentral Arctic basin. We show that compared to PHC data, NEMO can reliably reproduce theupper layer water temperature and salinity, suggesting a warm layer at intermediate depths anda salinity minimum in the Beaufort Sea. In addition, the model simulations exhibit signi�cantdecadal variations in the water temperature associated with the Atlantic water layer (AWL) andwater salinity in the Beaufort Sea. In addition, there is an increase in the fresh water content in theBeaufort Sea and the water temperature at the intermediate layers after the 1990s. On average, thefresh water from the Siberian coast is transported into the eastern Arctic along the transpolar driftand into the Beaufort Sea through the coastal current; however, its pathway is shifting westwardduring the last decades of the simulation. Further analyses suggest that the decadal variations in thewater temperature and salinity are associated with the variability of polar vortex. For example, theeastward shift of polar vortex enhances the Beaufort High in the western Arctic, which acceleratesthe accumulation of fresh water in Canada Basin along with the increased ice melting.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 97
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1330-1500)Session:50602
Acoustics in Oceanography and marine sciences: from tropics to poles IISpearhead
13:30A New Statistical Method for Acoustic Backscatter Amplitude InversionGreg Wilson1, Alex Hay11Dalhousie UniversityContact: [email protected]
Detailed studies of suspended sediment dynamics under waves require non-intrusive time-resolvedmeasurements of suspended particle size and concentration. One method for obtaining such mea-surements is by model inversion of multifrequency acoustic backscatter amplitudes. A limitation ofexisting inversion methods, however, is that they become unstable in the presence of high suspendedconcentration, due to along-path accumulation of statistical noise/errors via sediment-inducedacoustic attenuation. This limits applications of inversion in the nearshore bottom boundary layer,which is characterized by rapid variability and high suspended concentration. With that in mind,a new method has been developed which improves inversion stability by incorporating techniquesfrom linear statistical inverse theory and data assimilation. The new method is demonstrated usinglaboratory measurements of a sediment- laden jet, with a recently developed multifrequency coher-ent Doppler pro�ler (MFDop). The new method is shown to produce accurate inversion results,even in high-concentration cases for which existing methods are unstable/inaccurate.
13:45Zooplankton biomass estimates from acoustic backscatter in the Salish Sea, BritishColumbia, CanadaJeremy Krogh1, Akash Sastri2, Richard Dewey1, Mei Sato31University of Victoria2Ocean Networks Canada3University of WashingtonContact: [email protected]
Ocean Networks Canada's costal cabled observatory, VENUS, includes several upward facing,platform-mounted ASL Environmental Sciences bio-acoustic pro�lers. Here we estimate total andsize-speci�c biomass using data from two such pro�lers: 1) a single frequency 200kHz pro�ler locatedat ≈96m in Saanich Inlet, for which eight years of data exist; and 2) a multi-frequency (38, 125,& 200kHz) pro�ler located nearby in the central Strait of Georgia (≈299m depth) with a one yeartime series. We have developed algorithms which capture the seasonal cycle of euphausiid (krill)biomass throughout the long-term bio-acoustic time series for Saanich Inlet. Euphausiid-speci�cbiomass was targeted (and calculated) by limiting echo range and removing background gain inorder to more con�dently remove �sh and instrument noise artifacts. Applying a similar algorithmto the multi frequency data allowed us to calculate three distinct size-class speci�c biomass esti-mates based on minimum organism size. To further improve our zooplankton biomass estimate atthe multi frequency site we used the lower frequencies to identify and remove �sh and other largetargets from the 200kHz channel. Here we demonstrate the utility of autonomous platforms tomeasure seasonal patterns in size-speci�c biomass.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 98
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1330-1500)Session:50602
Acoustics in Oceanography and marine sciences: from tropics to poles IISpearhead
14:00Four Co-located Doppler Systems for Monitoring the Coastal Bottom Boundary LayerRichard Dewey1, Alex Hay21University of Victoria2Dalhousie UniversityContact: [email protected]
A system consisting of four co-located acoustic Doppler instruments was deployed on the VENUSobservatory of Ocean Networks Canada in the Strait of Georgia. The small, compact platform hoststwo Nortek and two RDI Doppler instruments, resolving the entire oceanic bottom boundary layer.Looking downward over the bottom 1m is a high resolution Nortek AquaDopp pro�ler. At a heightof 1m, there is a point measuring Nortek Vector ADV. Looking upward are two RDI WorkhorseADCPs, with 600 kHz and 300 kHz operating frequencies. This combination provides a collectionof pro�les and point measurements of the near bottom velocity structure, resolving both micro-and �ne-scale features from heights of a few cm to over 140m. The data can be analyzed to showthe near-bottom velocities and shear, as well as a variety of turbulent characteristics, including thebottom stress, the internal Reynolds stresses and dissipation rates. The presentation will describethe physical and operating setup, and review a selection of data from near the mouth of the FraserRiver in the Strait of Georgia.
14:15Observing �sh behavior using a bottom mounted Doppler velocity pro�ler at a pro-posed in-stream tidal site: Grand Passage Nova ScotiaLen Zedel1, Alex Hay21Memorial University of Newfoundland2Dalhousie UniversityContact: [email protected]
Normally, when acoustic backscatter from �sh occurs in Acoustic Doppler Current Pro�ler (ADCP)data, that data are considered corrupted and the corresponding velocity pro�les are rejected. How-ever, through the processing of data from individual acoustic beams, it is possible to extract both�sh and water velocities from the data. We apply this processing approach to a 3 day deploy-ment of a 600 kHz RD Instruments Workhorse ADCP in Grand Passage Nova Scotia; a site thathas been identi�ed as having potential for in-stream tidal generation. Observations are availablefrom September 4, till September 7, 2012. The presence of �sh is determined by both acousticbackscatter levels (which identi�es potential target locations), but also by using signal correlationwhich helps to distinguish discrete targets (�sh?) from regions of continuous high backscatter. Anexample of how the correlation plays a role in discriminating the presence of discrete targets is inthe presence of frequent sweeps of strong backscatter regions that seem linked to the surface; wehypothesis that these events are caused by bubbles swept down from the surface at fronts withinthe very turbulent �ow. On a few occasions, there are near surface aggregations of �sh that arelikely herring or mackerel. These schools have a distinct velocity from that of the water �ow itself.Also present throughout the data are discrete targets which have acoustic signatures consistentwith being caused by �sh but for the most part are travelling passively with the water. Time series
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 99
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1330-1500)Session:50602
Acoustics in Oceanography and marine sciences: from tropics to poles IISpearhead
plots of the number of �sh detected shows clear structure with a diurnal variation.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 100
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1330-1500)Session:206
Synoptic and Mesoscale DynamicsWedgemont
13:30An analysis of extreme precipitation events in continental and coastal regions of NorthAmerica: The relative roles of synoptic-scale triggers versus strati�cationJohn Gyakum1
1McGill UniversityContact: [email protected]
The purpose of this research is to analyze historically extreme precipitation cases in the context ofsynthesizing crucial dynamic and thermodynamic processes occurring on planetary-, synoptic-, andmesoscales. Our analysis includes diagnoses from both the classical quasi-geostrophic and potentialvorticity perspectives. The particular research utilizes historical analyses of synoptic-scale triggersin the form of tropospheric Q-vector convergence that force ascent. These large-scale forcings areassessed in the context of the atmosphere's thermodynamic conditioning in the form of its air massevolution. In particular, we �nd that lower tropospheric warming and moistening are crucial tothe antecedent conditioning that convectively destabilizes the region prior to the onset of large-scale ascent and precipitation. This conditioning is generally associated with historically extremecold-season and warm-season extreme precipitation events. An additional contributor to extremeprecipitation is its duration, which is typically associated with a quasi-stationary planetary-scaleenvironment that includes an anomalously strong tropopause jet. This jet facilitates particularlystrong, and persistent, baroclinic growth in the presence of anomalously strong polar and subtropicalair masses.
13:45The Dissipation Structure of Extratropical CyclonesJiangnan Li1, Petr Chylek21Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis2Los Alamos National LaboratoryContact: [email protected]
The physical characteristics of extratropical cyclones are investigated based on the non-equilibriumthermodynamics. Non- equilibrium thermodynamics (mostly developed in 70-90s of century 20)has been widely used in many scienti�c �elds. Non-equilibrium thermodynamics can reveal thedissipation structure for any thermodynamic and dynamic systems. It is found that dissipationis always present in an extratropical cyclone and the dissipation center is not always coincidentwith the low pressure center especially for incipient cyclones. The di�erent components of internalentropy production correspond to di�erent dissipation processes. Usually the thermal dissipationdue to turbulent vertical di�usion and convection lags geographically the dynamic dissipation dueto wind stress. At the incipient stage, the dissipation is mainly thermal in nature. A conceptof temperature shear is introduced as the result of thermal dissipation. The temperature shearprovides a useful diagnostic for extratropical cyclone identi�cation. The regional study in thewestern Paci�c clearly demonstrates that the temperature shear are the most reliable early signalsof cyclone in the cyclogenesis stage.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 101
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1330-1500)Session:206
Synoptic and Mesoscale DynamicsWedgemont
14:00The June 2013 Alberta Catastrophic Flooding EventBob Kochtubajda1, Ronald Stewart2, Sudesh Boodoo1, Ron Goodson1, Yanping Li3, Anthony Liu1,Curtis Mooney1, Kit Szeto1, Julie Thériault41Environment Canada2University of Manitoba3University of Saskatchewan4Université du QuébecContact: [email protected]
An overview of the atmospheric features associated with the June 2013 Alberta �ooding event thatwas triggered by June 19-22 heavy precipitation over the Bow River basin in particular is provided.Information was obtained from a variety of sources including satellites, operational model analyses,lightning network, radar, and weather stations. Substantial snowfall occurred over the mountainsin the preceding winter and above-normal precipitation occurred in the month before the event.The event itself was linked with a mid-level closed low pressure system to the west of the regionand a surface low pressure region initially to its south. This con�guration brought warm, moistunstable air into the region that led to dramatic, organized convection with an enormous amountof lightning and some hail. Such conditions occurred in the southern parts of the region whereasthe northern parts were devoid of lightning. Later on, the precipitation was mainly stratiform innature. Initially, precipitation rates were high (up to 50 mm h-1) but decreased to lower valuesas the precipitation shifted to long-lived stratiform conditions. Both the convective and stratiformcomponents were a�ected by the topography. Similar events, such as June 2002, have occurredover this region although the 2002 event was colder and had little if any convection over south-westAlberta. The synoptic scale features associated with the 2013 rainfall event were not particularlyintense when compared to other cut o� low cases. However, its storm environment was the mostconvectively unstable amongst the events. The localized extreme convective rainfall along with thewet surface conditions could have contributed to the large runo� and �ooding.
14:15The importance of African easterly wave critical layer in developing tropical stormsAli Asaadi1, Gilbert Brunet2, M. K. Peter Yau11McGill University2Environment Canada and Met O�ceContact: [email protected]
This study brings new understanding on tropical cyclogenesis that starts with westward travellingAfrican easterly waves that can evolve into coherent cyclonic vortices depending on their strengthand other nonlinear wave breaking processes. In general, observations indicate that only a smallfraction of the African easterly waves that occur in a single hurricane season contribute to tropicalcyclogenesis. However, this small fraction includes a large portion of named storms. In addition, arecent study by Dunkerton et al. (2009) has shown that named storms in the Atlantic and easternPaci�c basins are almost all associated with a cyclonic Kelvin cat's eye of a tropical easterly wavetypical of critical layers, located equatorward of the easterly jet axis. To better understand the
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 102
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1330-1500)Session:206
Synoptic and Mesoscale DynamicsWedgemont
dynamics involved in hurricane genesis, the �ow characteristics and the physical and dynamicalmechanisms by which easterly waves form cat's eyes are investigated with the help of atmosphericreanalyses and numerical simulations. We perform a climatological study of developing easterlywaves covering the 1998-2001 hurricane seasons using ERA-Interim 6-hourly reanalysis data. Com-posite analyses for all named storms show a monotonic potential vorticity (PV) pro�le with weakmeridional PV gradient and a cyclonic (i.e., south of the easterly jet axis) critical line for timeperiods of several days preceding the cat's eye formation. In addition, the developing PV anomalycomposite shows a statistically signi�cant companion wavepacket of non-developing easterly waves.A barotropic shallow water model is used to study the initial value and forced problems of dis-turbances on a parabolic jet and realistic pro�les associated with weak basic state meridional PVgradients, leading to Kelvin cat's eye formation around the jet axis. The results highlight thesynergy of the dynamical mechanisms, including wave breaking and PV redistribution within thenonlinear critical layer characterized by weak PV gradients, and the thermodynamical mechanismssuch as convectively generated PV anomalies in the cat's eye formation in tropical cyclogenesis.These �ndings are consistent with the analytical theory of free and forced disturbances to an east-erly parabolic jet (Brunet and Warn, 1990; Brunet and Haynes, 1995; Choboter et al., 2000). 1)Dunkerton, T. J., M. T. Montgomery, and Z. Wang, 2009: Tropical cyclogenesis in a tropical wavecritical layer: Easterly waves. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 5587-5646. 2) Brunet, G., and T. Warn,1990: Rossby Wave Critical Layers on a Jet. J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 1173-1178. 3) Brunet, and P. H.Haynes, 1995: The Nonlinear Evolution of Disturbances to a Parabolic Jet. J. Atmos. Sci., 52,464-477. 4) Choboter, P. F., G. Brunet, and S. A. Maslowe, 2000: Forced Disturbances in a ZeroAbsolute Vorticity Gradient Environment. J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 1406-1419.
14:30Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Intensi�cation to Axisymmetric Heat SourcesGeorgina Paull1, Man Kong Yau1, Dr. Konstantinos Menelaou11McGill UniversityContact: [email protected]
Once a tropical cyclone has been formed its major source of energy is from the release of latentheat in the main eyewall region due to the condensation of moist convection. Recent studies (bothmodeling and analytically) have showed the sensitivity of a tropical cyclones intensi�cation rate tothe location of this heating with respect to the radius of maximum winds (RMW), the strengthof the storm, and the vertical and horizontal extents of the circulation. This study focuses onhow the radial and vertical distributions of heat with respect to the RMW in�uence the rate oftropical storm intensi�cation. Using realistic heating pro�les obtained from an axisymmetric modelsimulation, we introduced the heating bubbles into a 3-D, nonlinear, dry, fully compressible balancedtropical cyclone vortex (WRF model). Sensitivity experiments on the size, strength, and radial andvertical location of the heating were performed. For each experiment the kinetic energy budgetis decomposed into its mean and eddy terms to study the exchange of energy between them. Inaddition, the eddy and mean kinetic energies are further decomposed to determine the dominantexchange processes that drive the rate of intensi�cation. Speci�cally, a direct comparison of thebaroclinic and barotropic processes help determine the nature of the dominant processes. These
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 103
Oral Presentations
Tuesday June 2 (1330-1500)Session:206
Synoptic and Mesoscale DynamicsWedgemont
�ndings allow us determine the relationship between a thermal heat source and the ensuing vortexresponse as well as the thermodynamic mechanisms associated therein.
14:45Some aspects of the problem of secondary eyewall formation in idealized three-dimensional nonlinear simulationsKonstantinos Menelaou1, Man Kong Yau1, Yosvany Martinez21McGill University2Environment CanadaContact: [email protected]
Some aspects of the problem of secondary eyewall formation (SEF) are investigated with the aidof an idealized model. A series of experiments are conducted, starting with a strong annularvortex embedded in a quiescent background �ow and forced by the sustained heating associatedwith a spiral rainband (control experiment). Following this, two experiments are con�gured toassess the impact of verti- cal wind shear (VWS) in the SEF process. The importance of theboundary layer force imbalance is �nally investigated in a number of simulations in which surfaceand boundary layer physics are included. From the control experiment, it is found that in theabsence of background environmental �ow, the sustained latent heating associated with a spiralrainband can form a secondary eyewall even in the absence of a frictional boundary layer. Thepresence of VWS acts negatively in the SEF process by disrupting the organization of the potentialvorticity induced by the rainband. When boundary layer physics is included, some similarities withprevious studies are seen, but there is no SEF. These results suggest that the boundary layer mostlikely contributes to, rather than initiate, a secondary eyewall.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 104
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1030-1200)Session:30501
Climate Variability and Predictability IFitzsimmons
10:30Tropical-extratropical teleconnections in the ECMWF sub-seasonal and seasonal pre-diction systemsFranco Molteni1, Frederic Vitart1, Timothy Stockdale11ECMWFContact: [email protected] linking rainfall anomalies in the Indo-Paci�c region and large-scale circulationanomalies in the northern extratropics have been investigated using re-forecast sets generated withthe sub-seasonal and seasonal prediction systems of ECMWF. For the boreal winter, results showclear similarities between teleconnections associated with the MJO on the sub-seasonal scale andthose related to variations in seasonal-mean rainfall with opposite anomalies in the Western IndianOcean and the Maritime Continents. Links with ENSO variability will be discussed, showing that astronger than observed correlation between Central Paci�c andWestern Indian Ocean rainfall a�ectsthe NAO response to such anomalies in the ECMWF seasonal forecasts. With regard to sub-seasonalteleconnections, results obtained with recent experiments using atmospheric horizontal resolution ofabout 32 km and 64 km will be compared. Although the predictability of the MJO does not seem tobe signi�cantly a�ected by the change of resolution, the strength of the NAO signal associated withdi�erent MJO phases tends to increase in the higher resolution runs. Overall, the high-resolutionsub- seasonal experiments show a larger predictive skill for the NAO than those at the currentoperational resolution (≈64 km), con�rming earlier results from MINERVA project.
10:45Potential In�uence of the November-December Southern Hemisphere Annular Modeon the East Asian Winter Precipitation: A New MechanismZhiwei Wu1, Juan Dou1, Hai Lin11Not GivenContact: [email protected] the leading mode of the global atmospheric mass inter-annual variability, the Southern Hemi-sphere (SH) annular mode (SAM) may exert potential in�uences to the Northern Hemisphere (NH)climate, but the related physical mechanism is not yet clear. In this study, it is found that theNovember-December (ND) SAM exhibits a signi�cant inverse relationship with the winter precip-itation over East Asia, particularly southern China. Observational and numerical evidences showthat anomalous ND SAM is usually associated with a South Atlantic-Paci�c dipole sea surface tem-perature anomaly (SSTA) which persists into ensuring winter. The dipole SSTA can modulate thevariability of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in Paci�c. Subsequently, a distinguishedatmospheric tele-connection pattern is induced and prevails over the NH mid-latitude region as aresponse to the anomalous ITCZ. Large areas of high pressure anomalies are triggered at uppertroposphere over East Asia and centered over southern China, which favors less precipitation overEast Asia, particularly southern China, and vice versa. Through such a physical mechanism, thenotable in�uence of the ND SAM can sustain through the following season and impact on the NHwinter climate.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 105
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1030-1200)Session:30501
Climate Variability and Predictability IFitzsimmons
11:00The spring link between the North Atlantic Oscillation and Paci�c-North AmericanpatternNicholas Soulard1, Hai Lin21McGill University2Environment CanadaContact: [email protected]
The Paci�c-North American (PNA) pattern and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) together accountfor a large proportion of atmospheric variability. This is maximized during the winter season(December-February) when both patterns reach their maximum amplitude. There are only a fewdecades for which there is statistically signi�cant correlation between the winter PNA and NAOindices; however, during the late spring and early summer seasons (March-May, and April-June)there is a consistent relationship between them. To explore this relationship, 65 years of monthlyanomalies from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset are used. PNA and NAO indices are derivedby projection onto rotated empirical orthogonal function patterns. Regression of both the PNAand NAO indices onto 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies show that both patterns signi�cantlyrelate to height anomalies which resemble the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Additionally, the NAO andPNA patterns derive energy from the mean mid-latitude zonal jet stream over the Northern Paci�cOcean. Variations in the amplitude and location of the jet stream on the dynamic tropopause showthat a wave guide preceding the positive phase of the PNA extends through the Atlantic regionbetween the North American East coast and Portugal. This same anomaly, associated with thenegative phase of the NAO presents itself two months later and marks the beginning of the signi�cantcorrelation between the PNA and NAO. Finally, linear removal of the signal associated with El-Ninodoes not change the relationship between these teleconnection patterns, and all similarities betweenthe lagged regression patterns of the NAO and PNA are una�ected as well.
11:15A physical analysis of the severe 2013/14 cold winter in North AmericaBin Yu1, Xuebin Zhang11Climate Research Division, Environment CanadaContact: [email protected]
The severe 2013/14 cold winter has been examined in the context of the previous 64 winters usingthe NCEP reanalysis data for the period 1951-2014. North America is dominated by pronouncedcold anomalies over the Great Plains and Great Lakes in December 2013 and February 2014, butreveals an east-west contrast pattern with warm anomalies over most of the North American West inJanuary 2014. The polar vortex associated temperature and circulation variability projects weaklyon the corresponding anomalies in the 2013/14 winter, while the variability in association withthe principal mode of North American surface temperature projects strongly on the correspondinganomalies in the winter. The principal mode of wintertime North American temperature anomaliesis closely related to the ocean-atmosphere interaction process over the northern mid-high latitudes.The principal mode associated sea surface temperature has signi�cant anomalies over the NorthPaci�c and North Atlantic mid-high latitudes. The horizontal temperature gradients over the
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 106
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1030-1200)Session:30501
Climate Variability and Predictability IFitzsimmons
Paci�c- North American sector result in an anticyclonic anomaly over the Gulf of Alaska-BeringSea and a cyclonic anomaly downstream over North America. Over western-central Canada andthe northern US, below-average heights are associated with above-normal precipitation, implyingenhanced upward vertical motion and variation of local cloud forcing, leading to the variation ofsurface energy budget. The surface radiative cooling, dominated by weak downwelling longwaveradiation, acts to support and maintain the North American cold anomalies, while the upwardsurface longwave radiation damps the temperature anomalies.
11:30Predictive anisotropy of surface wind vectorsYiwen Mao1, Adam Monahan11University of VictoriaContact: [email protected]
High-resolution, site-speci�c surface wind information is required for applications such as evalua-tion of wind energy production, prediction of climate change e�ects, and mitigation of airbornepollutants. Recent studies of a few locations, i.e. western and central Canada, global oceans andFrench Alps suggest that predictability of wind components by statistical downscaling is generallyanisotropic. This study aims at providing a qualitative explanation of predictive anisotropy basedon statistical analysis of observations worldwide. Speci�cally, large-scale �elds aloft are statisticallydownscaled using a linear transfer function to predict daily surface wind vectors from historicalobservations for 2683 land stations over the globe. The results show that the predictive anisotropyis a common phenomenon. Higher degree of predictive anisotropy tends to be associated with afew factors: (1) more complex landforms, (2) weaker coupling of surface predictands and large-scale midtropospheric predictors, (3) wind components of higher kurtosis and (4) more anisotropicvariance of wind components on daily time scale.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 107
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1030-1200)Session:50701
Coastal Oceanography and Inland Waters in a Changing Climate IGaribaldi B
10:30A Circulation Model for Baynes Sound, British ColumbiaMichael Foreman1, Maxim Krassovski1, Terri Sutherland11Fisheries and Oceans CanadaContact: [email protected]
A �nite volume ocean circulation model with resolution as �ne as 50 m has been developed andevaluated for Baynes Sound, British Columbia. The region is home to a large shell�sh industryand the model will be used to estimate carrying capacity and provide other useful metrics toassist regulators in managing the industry and assessing expansion possibilities. Baynes Sound isapproximately 30 by 2 km with openings into the Strait of Georgia o� the northern and southernends of Denman Island. It is relatively shallow with mud�ats developing at low tide and hasfreshwater discharges of up to 250 m3 s-1 entering via the Courtenay River. Model accuracyis assessed by comparing results with available tide gauge, current meter, and water propertymeasurements.
10:45Horizontal circulation in the Strait of GeorgiaRich Pawlowicz1, Ted Tedford1, Mark Halverson11University of British ColumbiaContact: [email protected] present, quantitative estimates of the estuarine circulation in the Salish Sea, over monthly timescales, are known reasonably well under a box-model paradigm. Under this paradigm Strait ofGeorgia deep in�ow waters have a speed of a few cm/s, and out�ow currents near the surface havespeeds of about 5 cm/s. However, actual measurements of the large-scale deep currents �nd subtidalspeeds of more than 30 cm/s in some places, and out�ow currents (i.e. with the "wrong" sign) inothers. Long-term observations of currents from the ONC/VENUS nodes, as well as shipbornetransects and drifter tracks, reveal that in�ow waters hug the southeastern side of the Strait, oftenas a narrow boundary current, which carries a volume �ux considerably greater than that of theestuarine in�ow. A broad return �ow in the central and western Strait compensates for this. nearthe surface, on the other hand, winds blow the surface water around and this dominates short-termpredictability.
11:00Physical Oceanographic Conditions in Douglas Channel, British ColumbiaDi Wan1, Charles Hannah2, Michael Foreman21University of Victoria2Institute of Ocean Sciences, Department of Fisheries and OceansContact: [email protected] ADCP and CTD observations are analyzed for the region of Kitimat, British Columbia,and particular attentions are paid to the circulations in Douglas Channel. Surface current conditionsare studied to directly address the initiatives onWorld Class Prevention, Preparedness and Responsefor oil spills from ships. The circulation in the upper 100 meters presents typical estuarine circulationfeatures; however, the velocity �uctuations at 5 m depth are highly correlated with the observed
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 108
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1030-1200)Session:50701
Coastal Oceanography and Inland Waters in a Changing Climate IGaribaldi B
daily winds, and at lower frequency the seasonal mean estuarine �ow in the upper 5-10 meters arealso modulated by seasonal mean winds. Annual long period (2 months) deep-water renewal eventsare observed, and these events in combination of the mixing of freshwater inputs directly determinethe annual cycle of the water properties of Douglas Channel.
11:15The 2013-15 North East Paci�c Surface Warming Comes Near ShoreSteve Mihaly1, Richard Dewey2, Kim Juniper11Ocean Networks Canada2University of VictoriaContact: [email protected]
The surface waters of the North East Paci�c (NEP) were anomalously warm from the fall of 2013through to the late fall of 2014. Estimates of the scale and amplitude of the anomaly suggesta signi�cant shift in the response of the entire NEP to variations in the winds, both speed anddirection, during the winter of 2013-14. For most of 2014, the warm anomaly remained o�-shore,in the central NEP, but during the seasonal transition from up-welling to down-welling favourableconditions in the fall of 2014, the surface waters o� the west coast of Vancouver Island migratedinto coastal regions. Continuous monitoring from the Ocean Networks Canada's Folger Passage in-stallation, with sensors at a depth of 100m, captured this encroachment in early November (2014),with temperatures rising over a full degree (1.3C) above any previous maximum. The anomalouslywarm temperatures remained along the coast for over three months, before relaxing in early Febru-ary 2015 to historic levels. The general conditions of the NEP and the 2013-15 observed anomalieswill be presented.
11:30Representing kelp forests in a regional circulation model: the tidal circulationYongsheng Wu1, Charles Hannah2, Mitchell O'Flaherty-Sproul1, Pramod Thupaki21Bedford Institute of Ocecanography2Institute of Ocean SciencesContact: [email protected]
Kelps, known as the large brown seaweeds, are commonly distributed on the north coast of BritishColumbia, Canada. The presence of the kelps enhances the hydrodynamic drag and thus changes thetidal circulation structures. In the present study, changes in tidal circulation have been investigatedwith a high resolution three-dimensional hydrodynamic model based on FVCOM in which the e�ectof kelps is parameterized as a friction term in the standard momentum equations. The locations ofkelp beds are derived from Landsat images archived in USGS and the drag coe�cient due to kelpsuses exiting laboratory data. The model is validated with the �eld observational data. Using themodel results, e�ect mechanisms of kelp forests on the tidal circulation are discussed.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 109
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1030-1200)Session:50701
Coastal Oceanography and Inland Waters in a Changing Climate IGaribaldi B
11:45Modelling the Bay of Quinte in Lake Ontario using FVCOMJennifer Shore1, Reza Valipour21Royal Military College of Canada2Environment CanadaContact: [email protected]
The Bay of Quinte is an economically and ecologically important embayment of Lake Ontariowhich contains critical wetland nurseries for walleye and yellow perch and supports a million dollarcommercial and sport �shing industry. While ecosystem modelling has thrived for this region,numerical modelling of the physical environment has lagged behind. It is paramount to accuratelysimulate the evolution of the temperature and circulation �elds in this Bay to establish a baselineagainst which we can measure future changes and to provide valuable information for ecosystemmanagement. We have used the Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM) model to producesummer simulations of the hydrography of the region for the period of 1979-2006. FVCOM hasbeen implemented to simulate the evolution of the Bay's water levels, currents and temperatures.Trends in surface and vertical temperature pro�les and current �elds will be presented for the periodof 1979-2006 for the Bay. Mean annual lake-wide surface temperature computed from the modelsimulations showed an increase of approximately 0.018 C/yr. A similar calculation using maximumannual surface temperatures showed an increase of 0.028 C/yr. As the Bay is very shallow, withmost of its depths less than 10 m, these surface temperature trends are a re�ection of the trends inthe air temperature forcing. With the projected rise in global mean air temperature, these trendswill likely continue, increasing the stress on the Bay's ecosystem.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 110
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1030-1200)Session:204
Data Assimilation and Impact of ObservationsHarmony
10:30Assimilation of Cris, ATMS, and European ground-based GPS at Environment CanadaLouis Garand1, Sylvain Heillette1, Stephen Macpherson1, Alain Beaulne1, Chantal Côté11Environnement CanadaContact: [email protected]
Environment Canada is planning to assimilate operationally (summer 2015) new data types in-cluding multispectral radiances from Cris (Cross-track Infrared sounder, 102 channels) and ATMS(Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder, 15 channels), as well as ground-based GPS data fromthe European network. In addition, inter-channel error correlations for all radiances are now con-sidered for the �rst time. Each component was evaluated individually from assimilation cycles.Results will presented for each component as well as the combined impact of the four components.This implementation will augment the volume of assimilated data by nearly 18 %.
10:45Comparison of EnKF and EnVar-based ensemble data assimilation methodsMark Buehner1, Ronald McTaggart-Cowan11Environment CanadaContact: [email protected]
The current design of the global deterministic data assimilation system used at the Canadian Me-teorological Centre is based on a 4D ensemble-variational approach, with 4D ensemble covariancesderived from an independent ensemble Kalman �lter that assimilates fewer observations than thevariational system. The possibility of using a variational approach within the ensemble systemitself will be explored using the results of recent assimilation cycles and idealized test. A rangeof techniques are introduced, from a costly design in which each ensemble member performs itsown full variational analysis, to a streamlined technique in which a limited number of iterations isused in the minimization problem for ensemble perturbations rather than the member's full state.The approximations that are required to limit the cost of variational techniques used within theensemble framework will be identifed, and their potential impacts on analyses discussed.
11:00Arctic System Reanalysis: 15 and 30 km VersionsDavid Bromwich1, Lesheng Bai1, Keith Hines1, Aaron Wilson1, Sheng-Hung Wang1, Zhiquan Liu2,Hui-Chuan Lin2, Michael Barlage2, Ying-Hwa Kuo21Ohio State University2National Center for Atmospheric ResearchContact: [email protected]
The Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR) includes atmospheric, sea ice and land surface representa-tions. Through data assimilation, a broad-based set of historical data streams from the surface andspace are combined. The ASR is based upon the polar-optimized version of the Weather Researchand Forecasting model (Polar WRF), the WRF variational data assimilation (WRF-Var) and theHigh Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS). Polar WRF includes an improvedNoah land surface model and speci�cations for the following sea ice attributes: extent, concen-
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 111
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1030-1200)Session:204
Data Assimilation and Impact of ObservationsHarmony
tration, thickness, albedo and snow cover. WRF-Var assimilates NCEP-PREPBUFR observationdata (in-situ surface and upper air data, remotely sensed retrievals and satellite radiance data).HRLDAS assimilates snow cover and depth, observed vegetation fraction and albedo. The T255(0.7 degrees) horizontal resolution ERA-Interim reanalysis surface and upper air model level dataare used to provide the background initial and lateral boundary conditions for the ASR. ASRv130km is complete for January 1, 2000 - December 31, 2012 and available at the NCAR CISL RDA.The annual precipitation patterns from ASRv1 30km and ERA-Interim are very similar. The higherresolution with the ASR results in more detailed and realistic precipitation features in regions ofcomplex terrain. The results of the ASRv1 30km and ERA-Interim are compared with 3-h surfaceobservations from across the ASR domain. These comparisons are based on observations from morethan 4,500 surface stations obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. The higher skill inresolving surface pressure, surface temperature, surface dew point and surface wind speed are seenfor ASRv1 in comparison to ERA-Interim. ASRv2 15km, with version upgrade along with modelingand assimilation improvements, is being performed and will be completed by May 2015. ASRv230km will follow, and we intend to keep both resolutions of ASRv2 up to date.
11:15EnKF Data Assimilation of Canada Radar for a Lake-E�ect Snowstorm in 2015Zhan Li1, Yongsheng Chen1, Iain Russell2, Majid Fekri21York University2Pelmorex Media Inc.Contact: [email protected]
A high-resolution data assimilation and modeling system is being developed to improve the short-term numerical weather forecasts for Southern Ontario. In this system, we take great e�ort toimplement the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) data assimilation of radar data, especially theCanadian radar data. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the DataAssimilation Research Testbed (DART) system to conduct the EnKF data assimilation and numer-ical simulation at a 3-km resolution, a recent case of Ontario-Lake-e�ect snowstorm on January 26,2015 is used to examine the impact of radar data assimilation on the analyses and forecasts. Dueto the prevailing easterly winds, this lake-e�ect snowstorm occurred on the western end of OntarioLake and produced 10-cm snowfall at Hamilton, Ontario. Because this snowstorm was well capturedboth by the Canadian radar at King City site (WKR) and the U. S. Nexrad radar at Bu�alo site(KBUF), we had a good opportunity to compare two experiments with either WKR or KBUF radardata assimilated. With 2-hour time window of assimilating both radar radial velocity and re�ectiv-ity, the analyses from both experiments reproduce well the lake-e�ect snowstorm. The subsequentshort-term (0-2 hour) forecasts show the WKR radar data assimilation leads to more improvementof simulating the lake-e�ect snow in terms of the snowstorm coverage and the snowfall intensity,compared with the KBUF radar data assimilation. Beyond 2 hour, both experiments present similarforecasts as the control experiment without any radar data assimilation. These results demonstratethe bene�cial impact of the radar data assimilation using EnKF method on the numerical analysisand short- term forecasts of the lake-e�ect snowstorm. In particular, it is the �rst time to examinethe performance of the EnKF data assimilation of Canadian radar data (King City site). Based on
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 112
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1030-1200)Session:204
Data Assimilation and Impact of ObservationsHarmony
these ensemble analysis and forecast, more studies will be performed to investigate how the radardata assimilation bene�ts to the simulation of the lake-e�ect snowstorm.
11:30The Antarctic Radiosonde Network: Optimal Locations for ObservationNatalia Hryniw1, Gregory Hakim1, Guillaume Mauger1, Karin Bumbaco1, Eric Steig11University of WashingtonContact: [email protected]
Radiosondes are crucial for capturing tropospheric structure and providing important data formodel assimilation and forecast improvement. Since it is expensive and di�cult to maintain a denseradiosonde network in Antarctica, it is important that the radiosondes that are deployed captureas much important information as possible. Here two idealized networks are constructed using acovariance ensemble sensitivity approach (Hryniw and Hakim 2015) using data generated by theAntarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS). The data period spans October 2008 - September28. Optimal locations are chosen by the technique that considers locations at every 5th point on the15km AMPS continental grid. The �rst network is one constructed from scratch assuming no otherradiosondes currently exist, and �nding �ve optimal locations for new observations. The secondnetwork is contingent on current observation locations on the Antarctic continent. This calculationregresses out the in�uence of existing observations, and then constructs an optimal network that iscontingent on the existence of these other radiosonde locations. This approach allows for objectiveplacement of new observations, and can easily be restricted so that areas where it is no feasibleto launch radiosondes are not included in the calculations. Hryniw, N., and G.J. Hakim, 2015:Multivariate Approaches to Optimal Network Design for Geophysical Fields. Mon. Wea. Rev.,submitted.
11:45Assimilating GPS RO in Polar WRF to improve surface pressure estimation overAntarcticaAaron Wilson1, David Bromwich2, Zhiquan Liu3, William Kuo4, Shu-Ya Chen4, Hui-Chuan Lin3,Tae-Kwon Wee4, Keith Hines51Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, The Ohio State University2Polar Meterology Group, Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center3National Center for Atmopsheric Research, Earth System Laboratory4University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Constellation Observing System for Meteorol-ogy, Ionosphere and Climate5Ohio State UniversityContact: [email protected]
The polar version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (Polar WRF) model and the WRFData Assimilation (WRFDA) system are used to assimilate the Constellation Observing Systemfor Meteorology Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) and other GPS radio occultation (RO) pro-�les in order to improve surface pressure estimates over Antarctica. As GPS RO measurementsare extremely accurate in all-weather conditions, the desired outcome is a monthly mean surfacepressure estimate to an accuracy of < 1 hPa at each location on the Antarctic ice sheet. This
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 113
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1030-1200)Session:204
Data Assimilation and Impact of ObservationsHarmony
will improve the correction of atmospheric mass loading in the Gravity Recovery and Climate Ex-periment (GRACE) measurements, thereby limiting the uncertainty of the ice-mass balance overAntarctica and its contribution to global sea-level rise. Sensitivity simulations have provided anoptimal Polar WRF con�guration and 3D-variational assimilation of GPR RO data for this region.Four month-long simulations (April, July, and October 2007 and January 2008) are conducted at30 km horizontal resolution. Results show smaller surface pressure errors compared to various datasets (NCEP FNL, ERA-Interim, AWS, and other Antarctic Surface Stations) when GPR RO areassimilated, exceeding the goal of < 1 hPa accuracy in many locations. Areas of complex ter-rain with steep topographic relief present a major challenge to improving surface pressure wherehigher horizontal-resolution assimilation (10-15 km) is likely needed. Assimilating GPS RO no-tably improves surface pressure estimates over the high interior of Antarctica and the baroclinicityacross the entire Adélie Land region. Together, this leads to greater accuracy in cyclone positionand development throughout the South Paci�c Ocean. Additional year-long (March 2007 throughFebruary 2008) simulations over Antarctica are planned, one with and one without the assimilationof GPS RO, in order to further demonstrate improved atmospheric mass loading correction forGRACE.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 114
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1030-1200)Session:406
High-resolution sea ice-ocean modelingRainbow
10:30Ice validation of the U.S. Navy's Global Ocean Forecast System 3.1E. Joseph Metzger1, Pamela Posey1, Alan Wallcraft1, Ole Martin Smedstad2, Michael Phelps31Naval Research Laboratory2Vencore Services and Solutions, Inc.3Jacobs TechnologyContact: [email protected]
The U.S. Navy's newest ocean and ice prediction system is known as the Global Ocean Fore-cast System (GOFS) 3.1, which is comprised of the 1/12o HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model thatis two-way coupled to the Community Ice CodE in a daily update cycle with the Navy CoupledOcean Data Assimilation and uses Improved Synthetic Ocean Pro�les to project surface informationdownward into the water column. GOFS nowcasts/forecasts the ocean's weather, which includesthe three-dimensional ocean temperature, salinity and current structure, the surface mixed layer,the location of mesoscale features, and ice concentration, thickness and drift in both hemispheres.The system has 3.5-4 km horizontal resolution near the North Pole. GOFS 3.1 is currently under-going operational testing and is scheduled to replace GOFS 3.0 for the ocean and the Arctic CapNowcast/Forecast System (ACNFS) for sea ice, both of which are the existing operational systemsrun daily at the Naval Oceanographic O�ce. Error analyses used to validate ice edge location, icethickness and ice drift will be presented.
10:45Accuracy of short term Sea Ice Drift Forecasts using a coupled Ice-Ocean ModelJinlun Zhang1, Axel Schweiger11University of WashingtonContact: [email protected]
Sea ice drift forecasts for the Arctic for the summer of 2014 are investigated. Sea ice forecasts aregenerated for 6 hours to 9 days using the Marginal Ice Zone Modelling and Assimilation System(MIZMAS) and 6 hourly forecasts of atmospheric forcing variables from the Climate Forecast Sys-tem (CFSv2). Forecast ice drift speed is compared to observations from drifting buoys and otherobservation platforms. Forecast positions are compared with actual positions from 24 hours to 9days. Forecast results are further compared to those from the forecasts made using an ice velocityclimatology generated from multi-year integrations of the same model. The results are viewed inthe context of planning and scheduling the acquisition of high resolution images which need tofollow buoys or research platforms for scienti�c research. RMS errors for ice speed are found inthe order of 5 km/day for 24 h to 48 h using the sea ice model vs. 12 km/day using climatology.Following adjustments in the sea ice model to remove systematic biases in direction and speed,predicted buoy position RMS errors are 6.5 km for 24 hour forecasts and 15 km after 72 hours. Themodel remains skillful relative to the climatological forecast for 9 days. Using the forecast modelincreases the probability of tracking a target drifting in sea ice with a 10x10 km sized image to 95%vs. 50% using climatology.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 115
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1030-1200)Session:406
High-resolution sea ice-ocean modelingRainbow
11:00E�ect of grid resolution on ocean simulations in the sub-polar North Atlantic andCanadian Arctic using NEMO and AGRIFClark Pennelly1, Xianmin Hu1, Paul Myers11University of AlbertaContact: [email protected]
The Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) framework allows for high-resolutionsub-domains by using the Adaptive Grid Re�nement In Fortran (AGRIF) package. Using AGRIFinside an ocean simulation can better resolve smaller scale features that might have been resolvedless accurately in the parent domain. The computational costs associated with AGRIF are notinsigni�cant; however, the high-resolution region is user selected and not the entire domain, makingAGRIF simulations considerably cheaper computationally than simulations of similar resolutionacross the entire domain. We used AGRIF to produce high-resolution simulations nested in theregion of the sub-polar gyre, as well as the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. We explored the di�erencesbetween simulations using AGRIF to achieve 1/12o localized resolution, and simulations with 1/4o
and 1/12o resolution across the entire domain. We focused our comparison on the volume, heat andfreshwater transports across a number of observational sections (which were used for validation).We examined transport by water mass to characterize hydrography of the regions. Finally, welooked at other relevant �elds such as sea ice, mixed layer depth and eddy kinetic energy.
11:15Solving the sea ice momentum equation using Newton's method: Non-linearity, nu-merics and convergence.Jean-Pierre Auclair1, C. Harold Ritchie2, Jean-François Lemieux21Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University2Meteorological Research Division, Environment CanadaContact: [email protected]
Current numerical sea ice models struggle when dealing with high resolution simulations. It ishypothesized that the strong velocity gradients present in fracture zones slow down the convergenceof numerical solvers by accentuating the non-linearity in the sea ice momentum equation. Thisresults in increased computational time, often preventing models from reaching properly re�nedsolutions. Errors in the sea ice velocity �eld impact both ice cover and thickness and can in turnpropagate to signi�cantly a�ect weather forecasts. In order to address this issue, new numericalsolvers are being considered for the sea ice momentum equation. The use of a Jacobian free versionof Newton's method has allowed models to solve the equation for a velocity �eld more rapidly. Inthis presentation, the analytical Jacobian of the sea ice momentum equation will be introduced,along with preliminary results obtained by using it with Newton's method in a one-dimensional seaice model. The advantages it provides for convergence and reliability will also be discussed.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 116
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1030-1200)Session:406
High-resolution sea ice-ocean modelingRainbow
11:30A basal stress parameterization for modeling landfast iceJean-François Lemieux1, Bruno Tremblay2, Frédéric Dupont1, Mathieu Plante2, Gregory Smith1,Dany Dumont31Environnement Canada2McGill University3ISMERContact: [email protected]
Current large-scale sea ice models represent very crudely or are unable to simulate the formation,maintenance and decay of coastal landfast ice. We present a simple landfast ice parameterizationrepresenting the e�ect of grounded ice keels. This parameterization is based on bathymetry dataand the mean ice thickness in a grid cell. It is easy to implement and can be used for two-thickness and multi-thickness category models. Two free parameters are used to determine thecritical thickness required for large ice keels to reach the bottom and to calculate the basal stressassociated with the weight of the ridge above hydrostatic balance. A sensitivity study is performedand demonstrates that the parameter associated with the critical thickness has the largest in�uenceon the simulated landfast ice area. A six year (2001-2007) simulation with a 20-km resolution seaice model was performed. The simulated landfast ice areas for regions o� the coast of Siberia andfor the Beaufort Sea were calculated and compared with data from the National Ice Center. Withoptimal parameters, the basal stress parameterization leads to a slightly shorter landfast ice seasonbut overall provides a realistic seasonal cycle of the landfast ice area in the East Siberian, Laptevand Beaufort Seas. However, in the Kara Sea, where ice arches between islands are key to thestability of the landfast ice, the parameterization consistently leads to an underestimation of thelandfast area.
11:45An Anisotropic Sigma-Coordinate Sea-Ice Thermal Stress ModelYukie Hata1, Bruno Tremblay11McGill UniversityContact: [email protected]
As a �rst step towards including thermal stress in sea-ice dynamics models, we developed a 1.5Dthermal stress model that takes into account land con�nement and anisotropy in thermal stress inlandfast sea ice in proximity to a coastline. To simulate land con�nement, the total strain of ice inthe direction perpendicular to the coastline is limited from thermal expansion and contraction tothe strain at the time of ice landfast onset. The simulated stresses match best the observation, whena Young's Modulus of 0.5 GPa and a relaxation time constant of 8 days are used. This simulationgives root mean square errors of 12.5 kPa and 11.9 kPa in major and minor principal stresses,respectively (≈ 30 % of observed stresses). The simulated anisotropic component of thermal stressinduced by land con�nement also matches well with the measured data. The optimal Young'sModulus is in the low range of reported values in the literature and the optimal relaxation timeconstant is much larger than reported values (8 days compared to 5 days). Three simulationsare done as a sensitivity study: with a linear snow and ice temperature pro�le, with a degraded
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 117
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1030-1200)Session:406
High-resolution sea ice-ocean modelingRainbow
vertical resolution, and without snow cover. Results report the errors in the principal stressesincrease by using a linear temperature pro�le and no snow due to the amplitude of short termstress �uctuations caused by synoptic scale temperature perturbations increase. This highlights theimportance of properly simulating the internal snow and ice vertical temperature pro�le.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 118
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1030-1200)Session:601
Ocean Biogeochemistry from Tropics to Poles: Synthesizing Observations and Model ResultsSpearhead
10:30Physical Aggregation of Buoyant Trichodesmium spp. Colonies through Eddy/WindInteraction: Observations and ModelingElise Olson1, Dennis McGillicuddy2, Cabell Davis2, Sonya Dyhrman3, John Waterbury21UBC2WHOI3LDEO, Columbia UniversityContact: [email protected] and distributions of Trichodesmium colonies of raft, pu�, and bowtie morphologieswere observed by Video Plankton Recorder in fall 2010 and spring 2011 in the southwestern NorthAtlantic. Raft abundances peaked highest in the water column, with consistent near-surface max-ima. In fall 2010, patches of elevated near-surface raft abundance coincided with cyclonic eddies,in contrast to the association of Trichodesmium colonies with anticyclones previously observedfarther north in the subtropical North Atlantic. Physical aggregation through Ekman �ux con-vergence was proposed as a mechanism producing elevated Trichodesmium raft abundances incyclones. This mechanism was evaluated through simulations of a buoyant tracer, representingTrichodesmium rafts, in cyclones and anticyclones with and without eddy-wind interaction. Simu-lations con�rmed the potential of the eddy/wind interaction to produce abundance patterns similarto observations.
10:45High resolution spatio-temporal patterns of surface CDOM in the Strait of Georgia,BCAkash Sastri1, Jeremy Krogh2, Richard Dewey2, Chris Sundstrom1
1Ocean Networks Canada2University of VictoriaContact: [email protected]
Ocean Networks Canada's coastal cabled observatory, VENUS, includes a suite of oceanographicand meteorological instruments aboard the BC Ferries vessels Queen of Alberni (QofA) and Spiritof Vancouver Island (SOVI). The QofA transits the Strait of Georgia (SoG) eight times a daybetween Nanaimo and South Vancouver, BC (≈50 km); while the SOVI travels to the southfrom Sydney through the Gulf Islands and across the SoG to South Vancouver. An additionalnortherly route between Nanaimo and North Vancouver will be installed in March 2015. Underwaysea surface measurements (every 10 seconds) include temperature, salinity, oxygen, chlorophyll a,choromphoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) and turbidity, as well as standard meteorologicalmeasurements. These highly resolved spatial time-series measurements are freely available online(oceannetworks.ca) in near real time. The QofA data set in particular, is unique because it crossesfrom oceanic waters in the west and into the Fraser River plume in the east. Variation of CDOMin the SoG is highly correlated with salinity since the dominant source of CDOM is Fraser Riverfreshwater discharge. Concentrations of CDOM increase from late winter and peak several weeksprior to the freshet (early June). Thereafter, CDOM input and sea surface concentrations decline.Here we examine seasonal trends in the CDOM-salinity relationship to identify spatial residual
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 119
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1030-1200)Session:601
Ocean Biogeochemistry from Tropics to Poles: Synthesizing Observations and Model ResultsSpearhead
patterns. Negative residuals in the low salinity plume center were found during the winter and aremost likely indicative of salinity induced �occulation and sorption; while positive residuals at lowsalinity during the summer indicate photo-degradation at the surface.
11:00The Changing Arctic Ocean: new environments conducive to algal bloomsJoannie Charette1, Marjolaine Blais1, Michel Gosselin1, Maurice Levasseur21UQAR-ISMER2Université LavalContact: [email protected]
Sea ice strongly in�uences the dynamics of primary producers in the Arctic. In late spring-earlysummer, the snowmelt results in the formation of melt ponds on the surface of the sea ice that canbe colonized by unicellular algae. Subsequently, the gradual melting of sea ice stabilizes the upperwater column and increases the quantity of light reaching the surface, leading to the developmentof phytoplankton blooms. Due to global warming, these phenomena occur earlier in the seasonand on a larger spatial scale. To better quantify these e�ects, chlorophyll a (chl a) concentrationsand primary production were measured in melt ponds, located on �rst year ice, at ice edges andunder the sea ice, in Lancaster Sound (Canadian Arctic) between 17 and 23 July 2014. The algalbiomass and productivity were dominated by small cells (0.7-5 µm) in melt ponds and by large cells(>5 µm) in the water column under the ice and at the ice edge. In melt ponds, despite low algalbiomass (<0.5 mg chl a m-3), primary production rates were relatively high with values rangingfrom 2 to 25 mg C m-3d-1. In the water column, primary production and chl a biomass ranged from94 to 1289 mg C m-2d-1 and from 24 to 51 mg m-2, respectively. Maximum values were measuredunder the ice and at the ice edge on the western end of Lancaster Sound. These new measurementsshow the high diversity of primary production sources and their relative importance in LancasterSound.
11:15Origin of the subsurface anomaly of dissolved methane in seawater on the Ba�n Bayand Labrador shelvesHuixiang Xie1, Lantao Geng1, Louis Fortier2, Ian Church31Université du Québec2Université Laval3University of New BrunswickContact: [email protected]
Punshon et al. (2014) reported a subsurface maximum of dissolved methane in the west DavisStrait, North Atlantic Ocean and further suggested that this methane anomaly originated fromhydrocarbon seeps on the east shelf of the Ba�n Island. During the 2013 and 2014 ArcticNetcruises, we con�rmed the presence of this anomaly (up to 50 nmol/L) in a broader area on theBa�n Bay and Labrador shelves. In the meantime, highly elevated methane concentrations (up to300 nmol/L) were observed in the bottom waters of the Scott Inlet shelf, where active seeps weredetected by echosounder scanning and remotely-operated-vehicle surveillances. Based on water
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 120
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1030-1200)Session:601
Ocean Biogeochemistry from Tropics to Poles: Synthesizing Observations and Model ResultsSpearhead
mass properties and extremely slow microbial methane oxidation (turnover times: 170-870 d), wehypothesize that the subsurface methane anomaly on the Ba�n Bay and Labrador shelves couldbe attributed to the southward advection of the seeps-derived methane on the Scott Inlet shelf bythe Ba�n Island and Labrador Currents.
11:30How does iron accumulate in Antarctic sea ice?Nicole Je�ery1, Scott Elliott1, Elizabeth Hunke11Los Alamos National LabContact: nje�[email protected]
In situ measurements of bioavailable iron in Antarctic sea ice reveal concentrations of at least anorder of magnitude higher than in the underlying ocean. It is believed that this iron store is inexcess of ice algal demand. Hence, ice algae are generally not iron limited. This is in contrast to vastareas of the Southern Ocean, a well-known HNLC region (High Nutrient Low Chlorophyll), whereiron limitation is an established constraint on primary production. Thus, sea ice melt serves as animportant source of bioavailable iron to upper ocean phytoplankton. The mechanisms, however,by which iron accumulates in sea ice are not well understood. In particular, how important is therole of sea ice physical processes versus biogeochemistry? Here we address this question with amodeling study of Antarctic algal production using the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) with avertically resolved ice-algal component. The model determines ice-ocean tracer �uxes and internalice transport using dynamic solutions of the ice microstructural state. In addition to a bioavailableiron pool, the biogeochemistry component solves for concentrations of dissolved organic matter,multiple algal types, and macronutrients.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 121
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1030-1200)Session:210
Atmospheric PhysicsWedgemont
10:30Aerosols e�ects on Numerical Weather Prediction through impacts to the micro-physics.Caroline Jouan1, Jason A. Milbrandt1, Stéphane Bélair11Environment CanadaContact: [email protected]
Precise numerical treatment of the e�ects of aerosols on cloud systems has proven challenging due tothe complexity of aerosolcloud- precipitation interactions. This study describes the implementation,sensitivity tests and results of a new representation of aerosols into the two-moment Milbrandt-Yau (MY2) bulk microphysics scheme using the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) NWPmodel. The scheme has been updated in order to incorporate a climatology of aerosols, thatcan serve as Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN), to initialize the concentration of cloud dropletsin the model. High-resolution (2.5-km horizontal grid spacing) simulations, using the 3D GEMatmospheric model over various domains in North America, were performed to test the schemeand examine the sensitivity of aerosols e�ects on short-term weather forecasts, including sensitivityexperiments using di�erent aerosol number concentration.
10:45A Stochastic Bulk Rate Parameterization Driven by a Turbulent Collision KernelDavid Collins11University of VictoriaContact: [email protected] and coalescence of cloud droplets to form precipitating rain droplets is a poorly under-stood area of cloud microphysics. Detailed models of collision and coalescence are prohibitivelyexpensive because the length scales of these processes and the grid sizes of climate models di�er byseveral orders of magnitude. Bulk models were introduced forty-�ve years ago (Kessler 1969) andcan a�ordably evolve the droplet size spectrum through collision and coalescence. However, theygenerally require postulating an assumed droplet distribution, and they also rely on the inclusionof ad-hoc (or tuning) parameters to address the closure issue. A stochastic bulk rate parameteriza-tion that avoids the use of any speci�c apriori distribution and includes only physically meaningfulparameters has been derived. A droplet distribution is assumed to exist and to have a spectralmean. Fluctuations about this mean are modelled as stochastic processes over time. The momentsof these processes are physically meaningful parameters in the bulk rate equations. The values ofthese parameters are acquired from data. This new bulk rate parameterization, possibly the �rststochastic one, can accommodate complex kernels such as the turbulent kernel �rst proposed bySa�man and Turner (1956) and corrected and expanded upon by Wang et. al. (1998). Results arepresented.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 122
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1030-1200)Session:210
Atmospheric PhysicsWedgemont
11:00A comparison of direct and bulk calculations of entrainment and detrainment in a highresolution simulation of tropical convection.Loren Oh1, Philip Austin11University of British ColumbiaContact: [email protected]
A technique to directly calculate the individual cloud entrainment and detrainment rates is usedin a large-eddy simulation of deep tropical convection based forcings measured during the GATE(GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment) Phase III �eld program. The model run covers an area of86.4 km x 86.4 km and uses 1728 x 1728 x 512 grid points with 50 m grid spacing. The simulationreaches a state of quasi-equilibrium in 9 hours, and the next three hours of the simulation wereused for the analysis. We analyze the directly measured cloud mass entrainment and detrainmentrates of the individually tracked shallow and deep clouds for a range of cloud size distributions. Thestudy presents a realistic model of the shallow and deep convective clouds using a high-resolutionlarge-eddy simulation, and compares the usual bulk entrainment rate, calculated using budgets forconserved thermodynamic parameters, to the total entrainment rate, calculated by summing thedirectly measured entrainment rates of the individual clouds. A number of current entrainmentparameterization schemes use mean cloud properties such as the cloud radius and height to param-eterize the bulk entrainment rate, we interpret these relationships using our new joint distributionof cloud size and individual cloud entrainment rates.
11:15Sub-cloud plumes and cloud-plume interactions in the marine boundary layer.Philip Austin1, Vlad Popa11University of British ColumbiaContact: [email protected]
Correctly representing the transition from shallow to deep convection in large scale atmosphericmodels requires an understanding of the environmental factors that control the growth of moist anddry plumes. Precipitation from shallow marine clouds plays a signi�cant role in organizing sub-cloudconvection through evaporatively-driven cold pools that determine the ability of sub-cloud plumes toovercome convective inhibition and initiate moist convection. We use large eddy simulations run at25 meter resolution with 3dimensional plume tracking to quantify the size distribution of sub-cloudplumes that are able to overcome convective inhibition and become clouds. This analysis allows usto to determine plume-cloud transition probabilities for precipitating and non-precipitating marineboundary layers.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 123
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1030-1200)Session:210
Atmospheric PhysicsWedgemont
11:30GABLS4: An Inter-comparison Case to Study the Stable Boundary Layer On theAntarctic PlateauEric Bazile1, Patrick Le Moigne1, Fleur Couvreux2, Christophe Genthon3, A.A.M Holtslag4, GunillaSvensson41Meteo-France CNRM-GAME2Meteo-France3LGGE, UMR5183, Grenoble, France4Wageningen University, Meteorology and Air Quality, Wageningen, NetherlandsContact: [email protected]
Within GABLS (GEWEX Atmospheric Boundary Layer Study), inter-comparison studies focuson boundary-layer parametrisation schemes in use by numerical weather prediction and climatemodels. In polar regions and under stable strati�cations, models still present large biases thatare dependent on the parametrisations used for the surface and the boundary layer (Holtslag etal, 2013, BAMS). The fourth GABLS case aims at studying the interaction between the bound-ary layer and the surface in strong stability and during the diurnal transition focussing on thedecrease of the turbulence. For those topics, a surface with a low conductivity and a high coolingpotential, such as snow (glacier), is more accurate. The site of DomeC on the Antarctic Plateauwas chosen for the availability of the in-situ measurements, the �at topography and the homo-geneity of its surface. The boundary layer observations are retrieved from a 45m tower with 6levels of sensors measuring temperature, wind and humidity (Genthon et al, 2013) and turbulent�uxes. The radiative �uxes and the temperature in the snow pack are also available. In fact,the case will consist of 3 inter-comparisons : Single Column Model (SCM), Large Eddy Simula-tion (LES) and land-snow model (LSM). It is organized in two phases. The �rst one is dedicatedto the LSM and the SCM with an interactive surface (snow) scheme. Then, in the second one,the observed surface temperature will be prescribed in the SCM and in the LES models. Thesetup of the GABLS4 case is available since July 2014 and the �rst GALBS4 workshop is plannedfor May 2015 in Toulouse, France. The preliminary results, comparisons and discussions fromthe Toulouse workshop will be presented. More details are available on the GABLS4 web page(http://www.cnrm.meteo.fr/aladin/meshtml/GABLS4/GABLS4.html).
11:45Grand Banks FogGeorge Isaac1, Terry Bullock2, William Burrows3, Stephen Goodman4, Mike Pavolonis4, CoreyCalvert51Weather Impacts Consulting Inc.2Amec Foster Wheeler3Environment Canada4NOAA5University of Wisconsin - Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite StudiesContact: [email protected]
A recent Hibernia Management Development Corporation (HMDC) sponsored Workshop on Meto-
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 124
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1030-1200)Session:210
Atmospheric PhysicsWedgemont
cean Monitoring and Forecasting for the Newfoundland & Labrador O�shore held 22-24 September2014, identi�ed reduced visibility or fog and high seas as being the most signi�cant metocean issuesa�ecting operations in this area. Reduced visibility a�ects helicopter and surface vessels supplyingthe oil-producing Jeanne-D'Arc Basin some 340 kilometers east-southeast of St. John's in some 80m to 100 m of water. Recent discoveries of hydrocarbons in the Flemish Pass, some 500 km eastof St. John's, and in deeper water (e.g. some 1000 m), have led to increased exploration drillingin that area. Grand Banks Advection Fog, formed by warm Gulf Stream air �owing over the coldwater of the Labrador current occurs quite frequently, with a peak frequency of 50% of the time(1/2 nautical mile or less) at the Hibernia Platform in August and a minimum frequency of 10% inFebruary, as calculated from MANMAR data from 1997 to 2014. Note that the visibility should begreater than 1/2 nautical mile before a helicopter can do a landing approach to an o�shore platform.The current techniques used to forecast such fogs are not well established or even veri�ed. Themechanisms of Grand Banks Fog formation and dissipation are not well understood and there havebeen very few studies related to this topic. Illustrations of some unique data recently collected,and the forecasting techniques (e.g. NWP, satellite and rules based) currently being tested, willbe given in this presentation. A brief description of possible future research plans will also bepresented.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 125
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1330-1500)Session:30502
Climate Variability and Predictability IIFitzsimmons
13:30Monitoring and Predicing the meridional Propagation of the 30-60-day Variability ofPrecipitation in the East Asian Subtropical Summer Monsoon RegionJinhai He11Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyContact: [email protected]
The meridional propagation of the 30-60-day intraseasonal variability (ISV) of precipitation in theEast Asian subtropical summer monsoon (EASSM) region and its monitoring and prediction areinvestigated in the current study. Based on a multivariate empirical orthogonal function (MV-EOF) analysis of precipitation and relative vorticity at 700 hPa in East Asia, a bivariate indexreferred to as the EASSM-ISV index is designed using the two leading MV-EOF modes, with theobjective of real-time monitoring the 30-60-day variability of precipitation in the EASSM region.It is found that this index, with its eight phases, can well explain the meridional propagation ofthe 3060- day ISV in precipitation and circulation in the EASSM region. Based on a singular valuedecomposition technique, a statistical forecast model is developed in which the EASSM-ISV indicesfrom the preceding �ve pentads are used to predict the indices in future �ve pentads. Meanwhile, theindices are used to predict the meridional propagation of the 30-60-day precipitation anomaly in theEASSM region. This model thus provides a useful tool for intraseasonal prediction of precipitationduring the raining season in China.
13:45Simulation of MJO and Monsoon ISO in an aquaplanet GCM with a stochastic mul-ticloud parameterizationBoualem Khouider1, Qiang Deng2, AjayaMohan Ravindran2, Andrew Majda31University of Victoria2NYU Abu Dhabi3Courant InsttituteContact: [email protected]
The representation of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and Monsoon variability on the intrasea-sonal time scales (ISO) is still a challenge for numerical weather prediction and general circulationmodels (GCMs) because of the inadequate treatment of convection and the associated interactionsacross scales by the underlying cumulus parameterizations. One new promising direction is theuse of the stochastic multicloud model (SMCM) that has been designed speci�cally to capture themissing variability due to unresolved processes of convection and their impact on the large-scale�ow. The SMCM speci�cally models the area fractions of the three cloud types (congestus, deep,and stratiform) that characterize organized convective systems on all scales. The SMCM capturesthe stochastic behavior of these three cloud types via a judiciously constructed Markov birth-deathprocess using a particle interacting lattice model. The SMCM has been successfully applied forconvectively coupled waves in a simpli�ed primitive equation model and validated against radardata of tropical precipitation. In this work, the authors use for the �rst time the SMCM in aGCM. The authors build on previous work of coupling the High-Order Methods Modeling En-vironment (HOMME) NCAR GCM to a simple multicloud model. The authors tested the new
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 126
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1330-1500)Session:30502
Climate Variability and Predictability IIFitzsimmons
SMCM-HOMME model in the parameter regime considered previously and found that the stochas-tic model drastically improves the results of the deterministic model. Clear MJO-like structureswith many realistic features from nature are reproduced by SMCM-HOMME in the physically rel-evant parameter regime including wave trains of MJOs that organize intermittently in time. Moreinterestingly, when a warm pool like SST pro�le is imposed o� the equator the model produces arealistic monsoon trough-like circulation about which synoptic and intraseasonal oscillations �uc-tuate. The have the physical features of westward moving Indian monsoon low pressure systemsand intraseasonal dry and wet spells, respectively.
14:00Summer Arctic Sea Ice Intra-Seasonal Predictability Using a Vector Auto-RegressiveModelLei Wang1, Xiaojun Yuan1, Mingfang Ting11Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia UniversityContact: [email protected]
Recent Arctic sea ice changes may have important societal and economic impacts and also may leadto adverse e�ects on the Arctic ecosystem, weather and climate. Understanding the predictabilityof Arctic sea ice melting is thus an important task. A Vector Auto- Regressive (VAR) model isevaluated for predicting the 1979-2012 summer time (May through September) daily Arctic sea iceconcentrations. The cross-validated forecast skill of the VAR model is superior over persistenceat lead-times of 20≈60 days, especially over marginal seas. In addition to capturing the generalseasonal melt of sea ice, the VAR model is also able to capture the inter-annual variability of themelting and September sea ice extent minimum. While the detailed mechanism leading to the highpredictability of intraseasonal sea ice concentration needs to be further examined, the study revealsfor the �rst time that Arctic sea ice concentration can be predicted statistically with reasonableskills at the intra-seasonal time scales, a �rst step in bridging the gap between weather and climateforecast towards seamless prediction.
14:15Subseasonal variability of precipitation in China during boreal winterYonghong Yao1, Hai Lin2, Qigang Wu11Nanjing University2Environment CanadaContact: [email protected]
Subseasonal variability of precipitation in China is analyzed using pentad data for the NorthernHemisphere extended winter (November to March) from 1979 to 2012. Two leading modes areEOF1, a monopole in South China, and EOF2, a meridional dipole structure with opposite pre-cipitation anomalies over the Yangtze River Basin and the coastal area of South China. In space,EOF2 represents a southeastward propagation of the precipitation anomaly from EOF1. In time,principal component (PC) time series associated with EOF1 and EOF2 are signi�cantly correlatedwhen PC2 lags PC1 one pentad, indicating a phase shift from EOF1 to EOF2. EOF1 is associ-ated with MJO phase 3 (equatorial convection centered near 90oE), while EOF2 is related to MJO
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 127
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1330-1500)Session:30502
Climate Variability and Predictability IIFitzsimmons
phase 5 (convection centered around 120oE), but MJO contributes generally <10% of subseasonalprecipitation variability in South China. These EOF modes are more closely associated with MJO-independent tropical convection and mid-latitude cold surge processes. Two signi�cant precursorsfor EOF1 two pentads in advance are found: a southeast-northwest tilted OLR anomaly with alarge positive (negative) center in the Maritime Continent (the Caspian Sea) and a negative SATanomaly centered in Siberia. These two preceding signal sources may provide positive predictabilityskill for the subseasonal variability of wintertime precipitation in China.
14:30A Bayesian Modeling Framework for Tornado Occurrences in North AmericaVincent Cheng1, George Arhonditsis1, David Sills2, William Gough1, Heather Auld31University of Toronto2Environment Canada3Risk Sciences InternationalContact: [email protected]
Tornadoes represent one of nature's most hazardous phenomena that have been responsible forsigni�cant destructions and devastating fatalities. Here, we present a Bayesian modeling approachfor elucidating the spatiotemporal patterns of tornado activity in North America. Our analysisshows a signi�cant increase in the Canadian Prairies and the Northern Great Plains during thesummer, indicating a clear transition of tornado activity from U.S. to Canada. The linkage betweenmonthly-averaged atmospheric variables and likelihood of tornado events is characterized by distinctseasonality; the convective available potential energy is the predominant factor in the summer;vertical wind shear appears to have a strong signature primarily in the winter and secondarily inthe summer; and storm relative environmental helicity is most in�uential in the spring. The presentprobabilistic mapping can be used to draw inference on the likelihood of tornado occurrence in anylocation in North America within a selected time period of the year.
14:45Is There An Economic Advantage to Increased North Slope Navigability?Todd Arbetter1, Michael Goldstein2, Amanda Lynch11Brown University2Babson CollegeContact: [email protected]
The rapid decline of summer sea ice in the Arctic, particularly since 2007, has already broughtabout an increase in human activity near the ice edge, particularly in shipping. The length of theice season remains highly variable. Even in summer, hazardous conditions impact navigability andsafety. (the experience of Shell's Kulluk rig in summer 2012 is a cautionary tale.) The Beaufort-Prudhoe Bay shipping route has been crucial to operations in the Prudhoe Bay oil �elds; while somematerials can be �own in or trucked in via the Dalton Highway, barges are needed for the heaviestand bulkiest loads. Barges were also critical for development of the oil �eld in 19751976 and, morerecently, the creation of Northstar Island in 2012. Using a reduced form model, we investigate thefactors which govern the length of the shipping season, and then estimate e�ects of climate variance
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 128
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1330-1500)Session:30502
Climate Variability and Predictability IIFitzsimmons
on the shipping season and the associated costs and risks by applying the Black-Scholes OptionPricing formula to the ice edge variability.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 129
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1330-1500)Session:50901
The Labrador Sea as a Vital element of the climate system IGaribaldi A
13:30VITALS - Ventilation, Interactions and Transports Across the Labrador SeaPaul Myers11University of AlbertaContact: [email protected]
The VITALS (Ventilation, Interactions and Transports Across the Labrador Sea) research networkis a funded NSERC CCAR project. Our goal is to answer fundamental questions about how thedeep ocean exchanges carbon dioxide, oxygen, and heat with the atmosphere through the LabradorSea. Our working hypothesis is that deep convection in the Labrador Sea, which allows for exchangeof oxygen and natural and anthropogenic carbon to the deep ocean, is sensitive to the warming thatis taking place at high latitudes. Validating and quantifying this sensitivity is central to our researchnetwork and also the broader community of climate change researchers and policy makers interestedin characterizing, and possibly minimizing, the e�ects of global climate change. New observations,including biogeochemical, will include those collected from a SeaCycler moored in the interior ofthe Labrador Sea, additional moorings, gliders and �oats as well as ship-board measurements andremote sensing). Combined with numerical modelling at a variety of scales and resolutions, wewill determine what controls these exchanges and how they interact with varying climate, in orderto resolve the role of deep convection regions in the Carbon Cyle and Earth System. VITALsis a pan-Canadian initiative involving scientists from 11 Canadian universities as well as multiplefederal government laboratories (Fisheries and Oceans Canada, as well as Environment Canada),industrial and foreign partners. This presentation will outline the state of the project at presentand highlight some of the interesting preliminary results coming out of the project.
13:45Modelled variations of deep convection in the Irminger Sea during 2003-2010Jean-Philippe Paquin1, Youyu Lu2, Simon Higginson2, Frédéric Dupont3, Gilles Garric41Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada2Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, Canada3Meteorological Service of Canada, Dorval, Canada4Mercator-OcéanContact: [email protected]
We investigate the interannual variability of deep convective mixing in the Irminger Sea for theperiod between 2003 and 2010 using a high-resolution sea ice-ocean model. Simulated deep convec-tion shows large interannual variability in good agreement with mooring data and argo �oats. Theinterannual variability of the deep mixing is linked to the variability of the atmospheric forcing.Our analysis showed that the Western Tip Jets directly in�uence the deep convection area andare responsible for a large fraction of the total wintertime ocean heat loss during active convectiveyears. The model reproduces a strong and narrow cyclonic Irminger Gyre that favoured convectionby lifting the isopycnals within the gyre and by isolating the water in the center of the gyre. Com-bined with strong ocean heat loss by the atmospheric forcing, all conditions are gathered for deepmixing to occur during the winters of 2007-2008 and 2008-2009. The surface-forced water masstransformation showed the creation of Labrador Sea Water type in the center of the gyre. The for-
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 130
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1330-1500)Session:50901
The Labrador Sea as a Vital element of the climate system IGaribaldi A
mation rate shows large interannual variability with increased volume of denser waters created forthe winters of 2007-2008 and 2008-2009. Although the dense water formation in the Irminger Seais relatively small compared to its Labrador Sea counterpart, the model is in good agreement withobservation that identi�ed the Irminger Sea as secondary location contributing to the meridionaloverturning system in the North Atlantic.
14:00Pathways of Iceland-Scotland Over�ow Water in the Sub-Polar North Atlantic Oceanbased upon the NEMO ocean general circulation modelMaggie Campbell1, Paul Myers21University of British Columbia2University of AlbertaContact: [email protected]
Deep in�ow to the sub-polar North Atlantic Ocean from the Nordic Seas across the Iceland-ScotlandRidge, combined with entrainment leads to the production of a relatively warm and salty deepwater mass that contributes to the deep limb of the North Atlantic overturning circulation. Thiswater mass circulates around the eastern part of the sub-polar gyre before being transferred to thewestern part of the gyre and the Deep Western Boundary Current. Although much of this transferis believed to occur through the Charlie Gibbs Fracture Zone, it is believed that transfer occursthrough other fracture zones, as well as across parts of Reykjanes Ridge. There is also export tothe south directly within the eastern basin near the mid-Atlantic Ridge. Here we examine dispersalpathways of Iceland-Scotland Over�ow Water in the sub-polar North Atlantic using the NEMOocean general circulation model. Multiple con�gurations and experiments are used, ranging from1/4 to 1/12 degree. The Lagrangian �oat tool Ariane is used to clearly identify the main pathwaysin the simulations.
14:15Evolution of Ba�n Bay water masses and transports in a climate change experimentincluding Greenland runo�Nathan Grivault1, Xianmin Hu1, Paul Myers11University of AlbertaContact: [email protected]
Ba�n Bay is a small water body between the Canadian Arctic and Greenland. It receives warmsalty in�ows from the sub-polar North Atlantic and cold and fresh Arctic waters, which it thentransports south to the rest of the Atlantic. It also receives runo� from the Greenland ice sheet.This study is based on two di�erent numerical model experiments using the coupled ocean/sea-icegeneral circulation model NEMO, using di�erent atmospheric and runo� forcing for the years 1970to 2010. One forcing set is based upon the traditional CORE inter-annual forcing devised to forceocean general circulation model. The other set comes from HadCM3 forced with an A1B climatescenario, with the climate anomalies applied to the CORE forcing using a bias correction approach.We perform a budget study examining the transports, storage and surface �ux components, andtheir variability, in the di�erent runs and look at the importance of runo� and atmospheric forcing in
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 131
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1330-1500)Session:50901
The Labrador Sea as a Vital element of the climate system IGaribaldi A
the model response. We then look at the evolution of Ba�n Bay over the next century (2010-2100)in the run forced by the A1B climate scenario.
14:30Multiple steady solutions of the circulation in the Labrador and Irminger SeasAlexander Fuller1, Thomas Haine11Johns Hopkins UniversityContact: [email protected]
A simple model of the subpolar North Atlantic can produce closed, recirculating cells in the Irmingerand Labrador Seas, consistent with �oat data. But it can also produce an inertial solution withswift, open currents that do not recirculate. We explore this transition in a periodic channel toisolate the dynamics at work and �nd that weak forcing leads to the classic beta plume of lineartheory, while strong forcing causes the circulation to strengthen and elongate.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 132
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1330-1500)Session:50702
Coastal Oceanography and Inland Waters in a Changing Climate IIGaribaldi B
13:30Simulation of circulation and ice over the Newfoundland and Labrador ShelvesGuoqi Han1, Zhimin Ma1, Joel Chasse11Fisheries and Oceans CanadaContact: [email protected]
A three dimensional ice-ocean coupled model with a 7-km horizontal resolution is developed to sim-ulate past variability and to project future changes over the Newfoundland and Labrador Shelves.Here we present spatial and temporal variability of hydrography and circulation over 1979-2010.Daily atmospheric forcing is applied and monthly open boundary forcing is prescribed. The presentmodel shows good skills in simulating the inshore and shelf-edge Labrador Current. The modeltemperature and salinity agree well with observations. Model sea ice extent compares well with ob-servations. Based on the model results, we examine seasonal and interannual variations and seculartrends for sea level, temperature, salinity, sea ice, and volume and freshwater transport.
13:45Towards an operational 2D non-stationary hydrodynamic model of the St. LawrenceRiver and �uvial estuaryPascal Matte1, Olivier Champoux2, Yves Secretan3, Jean Morin2, Gregory Smith1, Pierre Pellerin11Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada2National Hydrological Services, Environment Canada3Centre Eau Terre Environnement, Institut National de la Recherche Scienti�queContact: [email protected]
The St. Lawrence River and �uvial estuary (Quebec, Canada) is a ≈400-km freshwater stretch ofthe St. Lawrence system, which extends from the exit of the Great Lakes at Cornwall to the easterntip of Orleans Island (OI) near Quebec City; it includes the Montreal archipelago as well as a seriesof �uvial lakes along its course. This region has a unique ecosystem and is a source of drinking waterfor nearly half of the Quebecers, in addition to being the site of important economic activity. Dueto its importance, modeling e�orts are put forward by Environment Canada to characterize thisenvironment and monitor its evolution and quality in an operational manner. This paper presentsa 2D non-stationary, �nite-element hydrodynamic model of the St. Lawrence River and �uvialestuary. The model includes a drying-wetting component and is based on high density topographicdata stemming from LIDAR surveys and multibeam bathymetric soundings. The �nite-element gridresolution averages to 190 m. It is calibrated and validated using tide gauge data and detailed cross-sectional water level and velocity data. Flow properties exhibit signi�cant spatial and temporalvariations as a function of tides and river discharge. While the net river discharge (averaging to≈12 000 m3/s) can more than double on a seasonal time scale, peak values reaching more than 5times the daily average can be observed twice a day near Quebec City, in both the upstream anddownstream directions, due to the in�uence of the semi-diurnal tide. These �ow features exhibitlateral and longitudinal variations in the model that are con�rmed by �eld measurements. Thiswork represents the �rst attempt to model the entire freshwater section of the St. Lawrence withthis level of detail. This is the �rst step towards an operational 2D non-stationary model of the St.Lawrence River.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 133
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1330-1500)Session:50702
Coastal Oceanography and Inland Waters in a Changing Climate IIGaribaldi B
14:00A Modelling Study of Coastal Upwelling on the Scotian ShelfShiliang Shan1, Jinyu Sheng11Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, CanadaContact: [email protected]
Wind-driven coastal upwelling on the Scotian Shelf has important implications for the supply ofnutrients to the surface layer. Two major upwelling events in the summer of 2012 were identi�edfrom the sea surface temperature (SST) observations made by the Halifax Harbour Buoy andsatellite remote sensing. A multi-nested circulation model developed recently over the centralScotian Shelf (DalCoast- CSS) is used to examine the spatial and temporal evolution of the upwellingand its associated �laments. The model has four submodels downscaling from the eastern CanadianShelf to the central Scotian Shelf using a one-way nesting method. The model is forced by tides,wind, river discharges, and heat/freshwater �uxes. Comparing with the observed SST �elds andtime series, the model is able to represent the development of coastal upwelling events and thecharacteristics of the �lament on the Scotian Shelf. The modelled vertical temperature structure inthe upwelling plume region is also compatible with glider observations on the Halifax Line throughthe Ocean Tracking Network project. Model results are also used to quantify roles of successiveupwelling-favourable wind impulse, strati�cation, coastal irregularities, and the Nova Scotia Currenton the development of coastal upwelling on the Scotian Shelf.
14:15Using the All-Source Green's Functions to Specify Barotropic Open Water BoundaryConditions for A Regional ModelZhigang Xu11Department of Fisheries and OceansContact: [email protected]
How to specify conditions at open water boundaries of a regional ocean model is a challenge sincethere are no physical laws we can resort to. The radiation condition technique is a commonlypractised approach in this regard. However, at its best, it can only radiate signals out of themodel. It has no mechanism to let any external in�uences to enter into the regional domain. Thispresentation shows a new technique which can let the barotropic motions freely exit from or enterinto a regional model domain. The new technique uses the All-Source Green's Functions (ASGF)to achieve this e�ect. An ASGF is a transfer function which can transfer global atmosphericand astronomic forcing �elds to responses at a point of interest (POI) in terms of sea-levels anddepth averaged velocities. The ASGF itself can be pre-calculated from a global model. Once it iscalculated, it can be repeatedly used for any time durations of forcing �elds. The ASGFs can bedeployed along the open water boundaries to provide the barotropic component of the boundaryconditions. This new technique will be illustrated with two examples: a linear model exampleand a non-linear model example. The linear model example will show how the ASGF conditionshelp a regional linear model to yield identical solutions that a global liner model would producefor the same region. The non-linear model example will show how the ASGF conditions and theFlather radiation boundary conditions can work together to signi�cantly enhance the realism of the
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 134
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1330-1500)Session:50702
Coastal Oceanography and Inland Waters in a Changing Climate IIGaribaldi B
solutions of the non-linear model.14:30
Numerical Study of Wave-Current Interactions over the Eastern Canadian Shelf underExtreme Weather ConditionsPengcheng Wang1, Jinyu Sheng11Dalhousie UniversityContact: [email protected]
This study examines wave-current interactions (WCI) over the eastern Canadian shelf during Hur-ricane Juan in September 2003 using a coupled wave-current modelling system. The coupled mod-elling system is based on a three-dimensional (3D) ocean circulation model (DalCoast) coupledwith a third-generation wave model (WAVEWATCH III) to enable integrating oceanic and waveprocesses in coastal and shelf seas. The 3D radiation stress formula and wave-enhanced verticalmixing are implemented in DalCoast to account for the e�ects of waves on the 3D ocean currents.In return, ocean currents modify wave �elds by entering the wave action equation and changing thewind input to the wave model. The coupled wave-current system is driven by the Climate ForecastSystem Reanalysis (CFSR) winds. An asymmetric vortex is inserted to the CFSR winds to betterresolve hurricane winds during Hurricane Juan. In addition, DalCoast is forced by tides, the netheat and freshwater �uxes at the sea surface and freshwater runo�. In comparison with in-situwave observations, the simulated wave �elds are signi�cantly improved during and after the highestwinds by accounting for the e�ect of currents on waves. On the right-hand side of the hurricanetrack, where currents are strong and almost propagate in the same direction as waves, the maxi-mum signi�cant wave height (SWH) is reduced by up to 18% due to the WCI. On the left-handside of the track, the storm- induced currents are relatively weak and the maximum SWH is nota�ected signi�cantly by the WCI, even though the propagation directions of waves and currents areopposite. For the e�ects of waves on currents, relatively strong wave-induced surface currents (upto 30 cm/s) are generated near the coast, over the shelf break and along the hurricane track, dueto the strong radiation stress gradient forcing produced by hurricane Juan over these areas.
14:45Modelling the response of Placentia Bay to hurricanes Igor and LeslieGuoqi Han1, Guoqi Han1, Brad de Young21Fisheries and Oceans Canada2Memorial UniversityContact: [email protected]
A three-dimensional �nite-volume coast ocean model (FVCOM) is used to examine the hurricaneinduced response in Placentia Bay, Newfoundland. Two hurricanes chosen are Hurricane Igor (2010)and Hurricane Leslie (2012), both of which made landfall within 100 km of the mouth of the bay. Themodel results agree reasonably well with �eld observations on sea level, near-surface currents and seasurface temperature (SST). Two hurricanes feature signi�cant di�erent tracks, radius and maximumsustainable wind, causing the opposite shifts in inner bay circulation. Hurricane Igor overwhelmsthe mean in�ow into the inner bay and shifts the currents to out�ow. Hurricane Leslie reinforces the
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 135
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1330-1500)Session:50702
Coastal Oceanography and Inland Waters in a Changing Climate IIGaribaldi B
in�ow into the head of bay. The peak storm surge is signi�cantly in�uenced by local atmosphericforcing during Leslie, but predominately due to remote forcing during Igor. The barotropic simu-lation retained insu�cient wind energy in the surface layer, resulting in a signi�cant underestimateof the near-surface currents, including the hurricane induced inertial oscillation.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 136
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1330-1500)Session:404
State of the CryosphereHarmony
13:30Towards a combined surface temperature dataset for the Arctic from the Along-TrackScanning Radiometers (ATSRs)Karen Veal1, Gary Corlett1, Darren Ghent1, John Remedios11University of LeicesterContact: [email protected] projections consistently suggest that the Polar Regions have the largest climate sensitivity togreenhouse gas increases, meaning they are likely to show larger signals than either global averagesor responses in other regions. Polar observations increasingly con�rm these �ndings, their urgencyand their signi�cance in the Arctic. It is, therefore, particularly important to monitor Arctic polarchange. Satellites are particularly relevant to observations of Polar latitudes as they are well-servedby low-Earth orbiting satellites. Whilst clouds often cause problems for satellite observations ofthe surface, in situ observations are much more sparse due to the remote locations and hostileconditions. The ATSRs are accurate infra-red satellite radiometers, designed explicitly for climatestandard observations, and particularly suited to surface temperature observations. ATSR radianceobservations have been used to retrieve sea and land surface temperature for a series of threeinstruments over a period greater than twenty years. We have combined land, ocean, and the sea-ice surface temperature retrievals from ATSR-2 and AATSR to produce a new combined surfacetemperature dataset for the Polar Regions. The method of cloud-clearing, use of auxiliary datafor ice classi�cation and the surface temperature (ST) retrievals used for each surface-type will bedescribed. We will show time series of ST anomalies for each surface type. The time series for openocean in the Arctic Polar Region shows a signi�cant warming trend during the AATSR mission.Interpretation of this trend must take into consideration changes in open-water extent and this willbe discussed. Time series for land, land-ice and sea-ice show high variability as expected but alsointeresting patterns. Overall our purpose is to present the state-of-the-art for ATSR observations ofsurface temperature change in the Arctic and hence indicate con�dence we can have in temperaturechange across all three domains, and in combination.
14:00Impact of observational uncertainty in determining variability and change in Arcticsnow cover and sea ice extentChris Derksen1, Lawrence Mudryk1, Stephen Howell1, Ross Brown11Environment CanadaContact: [email protected]
A wide range of gridded snow datasets are available for climate applications (e.g. satellite and landsurface model derived products). The climatologies of these snow datasets di�er by as much as50%, but their interannual variability and daily anomalies exhibit moderate correlations on bothinterannual and intraseasonal time scales. In this study, we identify the impact of the spread betweendi�erent snow products on two climate applications: (1) the evaluation of Arctic terrestrial snowcover extent (SCE) in Coupled Model Intercomparson Project 5 (CMIP5) historical simulations,and (2) statistical analysis of relationships between observed changes in Arctic spring snow coverand summer sea ice. 'Observed' SCE was derived from three datasets: MERRA reanalysis, a
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 137
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1330-1500)Session:404
State of the CryosphereHarmony
simple snow model driven by ERA-interim temperature and precipitation, and the NOAA snowchart climate data record. A comparison with CMIP5 historical simulations showed the spreadin snow products (even with only 3 independent datasets) was as great as CMIP5 model spread(from 14 models) at certain points in the time series. To determine the sensitivity to inter-datasetspread in quantifying changes to the terrestrial and marine cryosphere during the satellite era (1979-2014), de-trended correlation analysis of June SCE and September sea ice concentration (SIE) wasperformed using the same 3 snow analyses, and 3 SIE datasets (NASA Team-2 and Bootstrappassive microwave algorithms; Hadley Centre sea ice analysis). Results were almost completelyinsensitive to the choice of SIE product, but the strength and signi�cance of temporal movingwindow correlations between June SCE and September SIE was highly dependent on the choice ofSCE dataset. Collectively, these results highlight the need to better quantify the uncertainty incurrent snow products to better constrain climate analyses.
14:15Understanding the Interannual Variability of the September Sea Ice Minimum: aDynamic ApproachJames Williams1, Bruno Tremblay1, Bob Newton2, Rick Allard31McGill University2Columbia University3U.S. Naval Research LabContact: [email protected]
Over recent decades a reduction in the sea ice extent has been observed, with the most substantialareal losses occurring in September at the end of the melt season. Short term and seasonal forecastsof the September sea ice area currently show errors of equal magnitude to the interannual variabil-ity of the sea ice extent minimum- implying a lack in understanding of the underlying physicalmechanism for this variability. We argue that a signi�cant portion of the interannual variabilityis dynamically driven by the wintertime �ow regime via an intensi�cation of the transpolar driftstream leading to divergence and �rst year ice production in the peripheral seas of the Arctic Ocean.First year ice formed late in the season will be relatively thin due to the lack to tim remaining togrow. This �rst year ice is also likely to be undeformed leading to an increase in albedo whenmelt begins due to increased melt pond coverage. Using satellite and buoy derived velocities webacktrack the September ice edge to it's position the previous November in order to analyze thee�ects dynamics plays on the annual sea ice extent minimu.
14:30A spurious jump in the satellite record: has Antarctic sea ice expansion been overes-timated?Ian Eisenman1, Walter Meier2, Joel Norris11Scripps Institution of Oceanography2NASA Goddard Space Flight CenterContact: [email protected] to the IPCC AR5, the Antarctic sea ice cover expanded during 1979-2012 at a statisti-
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 138
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1330-1500)Session:404
State of the CryosphereHarmony
cally signi�cant rate with a magnitude 1/3 as large as the rapid sea ice retreat in the Arctic. Thiswas a substantial change from the IPCC AR4, which reported the 1979-2005 trend to be consider-ably smaller and statistically indistinguishable from zero. Both estimates were based on satelliteretrievals that use NASA's "Bootstrap algorithm" to estimate the sea ice concentration from pas-sive microwave radiometer measurements. The increase in trend between the two IPCC reportshas generally been attributed to an acceleration in the ice advance. Here, we show instead thatmost of the increase occurred due to a change in the way the satellite observations were processed.The Bootstrap algorithm underwent an update in 2007 to make the dataset more consistent with a2002-2006 record from another satellite, and the entire dataset was reprocessed with the updated al-gorithm. We �nd that this reprocessing of the Bootstrap dataset caused a previously undocumentedchange in the inter-calibration across a 1991 sensor transition, which caused a four-fold increase inthe 1979-2006 trend. The question remains whether this undocumented change corrected an erroror introduced one. Our analysis is not able to de�nitively answer this, but the results show thateither the older dataset or the newer dataset contains a substantial and previously undocumentedinter-calibration error. This suggests that numerous studies that have relied on these observationsshould be reexamined to determine the sensitivity to this change in inter-calibration. Implicationsfor the uncertainty in satellite sea ice observations in both the Antarctic and the Arctic will also bediscussed. Furthermore, a number of recent studies have investigated physical mechanisms for theobserved expansion of the Antarctic sea ice cover. The results of this analysis raise the possibilitythat much of this apparent expansion may be a spurious artifact of an error in the processing ofthe satellite observations.
14:45What can CMIP5 sea ice projections tell us about future navigability in CanadianArctic Waters?Frédéric Laliberté1, Stephen Howell11Environment CanadaContact: [email protected]
A summertime sea ice free Arctic is commonly assumed to be when Arctic sea ice extent is less than 1million square kilometers. In Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulationswith anthropogenic forcing, when sea ice reaches this small extent it usually still covers a substantialportion of the Canadian Arctic sea ice domain, in particular the Canadian Arctic Archipelago(CAA). However, several previous studies have suggested a more navigable Northwest Passagethrough the CAA by mid-century based on certain CMIP5 simulations. The problem with thesesuggestions is that the CAA is a complex sea ice region with numerous narrow channels and islandsthat is di�cult to capture with the coarse spatial resolutions commonly found in current EarthSystem Models (ESM). Here, we thoroughly assess the spatial and temporal representativeness ofCMIP5 sea ice projections within the Canadian Arctic sea ice domain using observations datingback from 1971. We show that the timing of summer sea ice free conditions in the CAA is widelyvariable among models and di�er from what can be extrapolated from current observational trends.In particular, we determine that the models have di�culty capturing the intricate thermodynamicand dynamic ice processes within the CAA by comparing the historical simulations with their longer
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 139
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1330-1500)Session:404
State of the CryosphereHarmony
and unforced control counterpart. Our results suggest more caution is warranted with respect tothe expectation of a more navigable Northwest Passage by mid-century.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 140
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1330-1500)Session:403
Beaufort Sea Ocean-Ice-Atmosphere DynamicsRainbow
13:30Variability in Wind Forcing Drives Winter Sea Ice Drift in the Southern Beaufort SeaMatthew Asplin1, David Fissel1, Keath Borg11ASL Environmental Sciences Inc.Contact: [email protected]
Observations of sea ice drift obtained with a large array of moored acoustic doppler current pro�lers(ADCP) for the winter and spring periods (January-May) of 2010 and 2011 have been analyzed toexamine the response of sea ice drift to wind forcing and ocean currents over the outer continentalshelf and slope of the Canadian Beaufort Sea. The short-term (5-20 days) response of sea icedrift ranges from 2.6 to 5.4% of the local wind over much of the inner continental slope, which iscomparable to that in the Bering Sea and the Antarctic but larger than that in the Arctic Ocean.Sea ice drifts to the right of the local wind, at angles ranging from 10o to 63o. The response towind forcing is largest near the ice edge, both over the middle portions of the slope and alongthe southern margins of the seasonal ice zone and during strong and steady wind of several days'duration. The large wind-driven response of ice drift observed in this study, in comparison withthe Arctic Ocean proper, may result from (1) reduced levels of internal ice stress associated withthe generally thin ice cover and lower areal concentration of sea ice, (2) large atmospheric dragcoe�cients associated with the small ice �oes in areas of comparatively higher ice concentration,and (3) smooth ice bottom, caused by melting, and the associated reduction in ice- ocean dragcoe�cient. In more inshore areas the ice to wind coupling is reduced owing to larger internal icestresses experienced locally due to higher ice concentrations and increased internal ice stress arisingfrom the proximity to the landfast ice and stamukhi zone.
13:45The role of sea ice dynamic preconditioning in recent Beaufort Sea changeJennifer Hutchings11Oregon State UniversityContact: [email protected]
Drift and deformation of sea ice can precondition the pack for ice loss from the Beaufort Gyre.Which occurs through transport of ice to the transpolar drift, export from the central Arctic toseasonal ice zones, and mechanical redistribution of ice thickness (opening and ridging). In the lastdecade the Beaufort Sea has become a region of perennial ice loss with an expansive seasonal icezone. This talk will outline the links between ice drift, deformation and recent ice loss, and presenta positive feedback between ice loss, mechanical weakening of the pack and melt. Ice deformationprocesses are involved in maintaining the increased seasonal ice zone area in the paci�c Arctic.To improve our understanding of the fate of the Arctic ice pack, there is a need to quantify thefeedbacks between dynamic preconditioning and heat �ux to the ice. Realistic representation of seaice mechanical processes, including deformation and wind-stress transfer to the ice and ocean, inregional and global sea ice models is needed.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 141
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1330-1500)Session:403
Beaufort Sea Ocean-Ice-Atmosphere DynamicsRainbow
14:00Thickness of sea ice and extreme ice features in the Beaufort SeaChristian Haas1, Anne Bublitz1, CC Bajish1, Stefan Hendricks21York University2Alfred Wegener Institute, GermanyContact: [email protected]
Sea ice in the Beaufort Sea has retreated strongly in recent summers, raising interest in its rolefor the Arctic climate and eco system, and in allowing access for shipping and o�shore resourcesextraction both in Canada and in Alaskan waters further downstream. However, little is knownabout the thickness of its remaining �rst- and multiyear ice regimes, and the occurrence of hazardousice features, which continue to limit the accessibility of the region for shipping and natural resourceextraction. Here we present results from spring-time airborne electromagnetic ice thickness surveysperformed in the Canadian Beaufort Sea between 2007 and 2015. Thousands of kilometers ofvarious �rst- and multiyear ice regimes were pro�led. Surveys are complemented by satellite radarimagery allowing regional extrapolation of results, and the operation of air-dropped drifting buoys.Results show large regional thickness variability with bands of �rst-year ice in the south and east, ofheavily deformed old multiyear ice further north, and of younger multiyear ice in the Canada Basinfurther to the Northwest. This regional variability is hard to capture with moored ice thicknessecho sounders. While the thickness of multiyear ice has generally decreased during the observationperiod, �rst-year ice thickness has changed little. Results also show the widespread occurrence ofextreme ice features, de�ned as sections of sea ice at least 100 m long and 6 m thick. These occurboth in the �rst-year ice regime, e.g. in near-shore shear zones, and in the band of the thickestmultiyear ice originating from the coast of the Queen Elizabeth Islands. Few ice islands were alsosurveyed, revealing thicknesses of 20 to 30 m related to initial thickness upon calving, and lengthof drift period. These results are important for the design of policies and regulations for save andenvironmentally sustainable future o�shore activities.
14:15Seasonal Ice Loss in the Beaufort Sea: Toward Synchrony and PredictionMichael Steele1, Suzanne Dickinson1, Jinlun Zhang1, Ron Lindsay11University of WashingtonContact: [email protected]
The seasonal evolution of sea ice loss in the Beaufort Sea during 1979-2012 is examined, focusingon di�erences between eastern and western sectors. Two stages in ice loss are identi�ed: the Dayof Opening (DOO) is de�ned as the spring decrease in ice concentration from its winter maximumbelow a value of 0.8 areal concentration; the Day of Retreat (DOR) is the summer decrease below0.15 concentration. We consider three aspects of the subject, i.e. (i) the long-term mean, (ii) long-term linear trends, and (iii) interannual variability. We �nd that in the mean, DOO occurs earliestin the eastern Beaufort Sea (EBS) owing to easterly winds which act to thin the ice there, relativeto the western Beaufort Sea (WBS) where ice has been generally thicker. There is no signi�cantlong-term trend in EBS DOO, although WBS DOO is in fact trending toward earlier dates. Thismeans that spatial di�erences in DOO across the Beaufort Sea have been shrinking over the past 33
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 142
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1330-1500)Session:403
Beaufort Sea Ocean-Ice-Atmosphere DynamicsRainbow
years, i.e., these dates are becoming more synchronous, a situation which may impact human andmarine mammal activity in the area. Retreat dates are also becoming more synchronous, althoughwith no statistical signi�cance over the studied time period. Finally, we �nd that in any given year,an increase in monthly mean easterly winds of ≈ 1 m/s during spring is associated with earliersummer DOR of 6-15 days, o�ering predictive capability with 2-4 months lead time.
14:30Intense shelf-slope �uxes of particulate matter in the mid-water column of the Cana-dian Beaufort Sea: linkages with atmospheric, ice and ocean forcingsAlexandre Forest1, Philip Osborne1, Makoto Sampei2, Louis Fortier3, Malcolm Lowings41Golder Associates Ltd2Hiroshima University3Universite Laval4Norquest SystemsContact: [email protected]
The southeastern Beaufort Sea is a region characterized by extreme physical gradients and a complexsediment transport dynamics. Riverine sediment export by the Mackenzie River has increased by50% since 2003, underscoring the need to better constrain the coupling between environmentalforcings and the fate of terrigenous particles. Sea level pressure during the melt season has increasedup to +4 hPa since 2007, causing an acceleration of the Beaufort Gyre and a strengthening of thecoastal upwelling regime that makes the plume expand farther o�shore than in the early 2000's. Inparallel, the decrease in sea-ice extent and increase in late summer/fall storminess have resulted inincreased wave action and current surge facilitating the potential for sediment resuspension, such asin September 2012 when the Beaufort Sea became ice free for the �rst time in more than 30 years.Here, we investigate the physical mechanisms that support the transfer of particulate matter acrossthe shelf-slope interface using a 4-year time-series of mooring and sediment trap data collectedas part of the ArcticNet/Industry partnership and Beaufort Regional Environmental Assessment(BREA) from 2009 to 2013. We recorded anomalously high sedimentation peaks (>2 g m-2) in falland winter over the slope that were recorded in concomitance with the passage of Artic-born stormsor following the relaxation of strong upwelling-favorable winds, two processes that could induce adisplacement of sediment-laden shelf waters toward the slope. During these periods, including fall2012, our results suggest that a combination of mesoscale eddy formation and downwelling currenttransported particles near the bottom at the shelf edge and in the mid-water column across theslope. Consideration of particle �uxes along with meteorological data and synchronous densitytime-series revealed that thermohaline convection driven by sea ice growth may act synergisticallywith storm winds as the main mechanisms for sediment resuspension and transport during late falland winter.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 143
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1330-1500)Session:403
Beaufort Sea Ocean-Ice-Atmosphere DynamicsRainbow
14:45The seasonal modi�cation of Canada Basin Halocline Water along the Canadian Beau-fort slope, Arctic OceanJennifer Jackson1, Humfrey Melling2, Malcolm Lowings3, David Fissel11ASL Environmental Sciences Inc.2Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Institute of Ocean Sciences3NorQuest SystemsContact: [email protected]
Canada Basin Halocline Water (CBHW) resides below the surface waters and above Atlantic waterin the Canada Basin of the Arctic Ocean. CBHW, located at depths of about 50-200 m, is a complexmix of meteoric water, sea ice melt, Paci�c-origin water, and Atlantic-origin water (Yamamoto-Kawai et al., 2008). In temperature-salinity space, CBHW normally has a temperature maximumthat is called Paci�c Summer Water (PSW) around the salinity range 29-33 (Timmermans et al.,2014), a temperature minimum that is called Paci�c Winter Water (PWW) around the salinity33.1 (Coachman and Barnes, 1961), and water that warms from PWW to Atlantic water within thesalinity range 33.1 to 34.8. While PWW has been observed in the Canadian Beaufort Sea (Lansardet al., 2012), both temperature-salinity (Melling et al., 1984) and geochemistry (Shadwick et al.,2011) data show that PWW is mixed with Atlantic water between the Canadian Beaufort Seaand the Amundsen Gulf. Using Industry/ArcticNet mooring data collected between 2009-2011,we apply a new method to quantify the seasonal modi�cation of CBHW surrounding the PWWtemperature minimum. We �nd that PWW warms in fall and cools in winter. We examine possibleprocesses that could cause these seasonal changes including upwelling, mixing by sub-surface eddies,and the periodic intrusion of Beaufort Shelf Winter Water as it is advected from the shelf to theslope.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 144
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1330-1500)Session:604
Land-atmosphere exchange of trace gasesSpearhead
13:30The e�ect of permafrost disturbances on carbon-dioxide exchange in a high arctictundra ecosystemAlison Cassidy1, Andreas Christen1, Greg Henry11UBCContact: [email protected]
The Arctic is estimated 50% of worldwide below ground organic carbon. As ground tempera-tures increase due to global climate change, this formerly frozen organic carbon becomes availablewhen thermokarst disturbances expose soil for microbial decomposition. On Fosheim Peninsula,Ellesmere Island, disturbances commonly take the form of retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS). Wedetermined the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of a typical RTS and how NEE over a RTS comparesto NEE measured simultaneously from undisturbed tundra. Using a dual eddy covariance samplingapproach with two towers, we measured carbon-dioxide �uxes continuously from a RTS and fromundisturbed control tundra. Net ecosystem exchange (NEE) measured during the growing seasonof 2014 indicates the control tundra acts a small net sink (NEE = -0.12 g C m-2 day-1); however,terrain impacted by RTS acts as a net source (NEE = +0.39 g C m-2 day-1). Seasonal trends areevident throughout the sampling season as during late June and early July control tundra acts asmall source (0.08 µmol m-2s-1), before shifting to a sink (-0.28 µmol m-2s-1) for the remainder ofthe sampling season (July) whereas the RTS acts as a carbon source throughout the season althoughvarying in intensity. During peak growth, the main controls on NEE are temperature and vapourpressure de�cit. Data were compared with �uxes measured using a static chamber system, which wewere able to partition into ecosystem respiration (Re) and gross primary production (GPP). GPPand Re from the disturbance were smaller than those from control tundra, with GPP reaching amaximum mid July. Re from the disturbance peaks early season, with values decreasing throughoutJuly, while respiration values from control tundra peak mid July, similar to GPP values.
13:45Greenhouse gas �uxes from a disturbed bog in the Lower Fraser Valley undergoingrestoration and rewettingAndreas Christen1, Rachhpal Jassal2, Andy Black2, Nick Grant2, Iain Hawthorne3, Mark Johnson3,Rick Ketler1, Sung-Ching Lee1, Markus Merkens4, Zoran Nesic2, Conor Reynolds41The University of British Columbia, Department of Geography2The University of British Columbia, Faculty of Land and Food Systems3The University of British Columbia, IRES4Metro Vancouver, Planning, Policy and EnvironmentContact: [email protected]
Burns Bog in the Lower Fraser Valley is a large (20 km2) disturbed raised bog ecosystem in anurban area that is currently being restored to promote ecological recovery. Restoration e�orts aim atraising the water table by impeding drainage, which may change emissions and uptake of long-livedatmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) and, in particular, may promote methane (CH4) production.We quanti�ed summertime �uxes of the three major GHGs, viz., carbon dioxide (CO2), CH4 andnitrous oxide (N2O) from the soil in four plots representing di�erent stages of recovery based on
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 145
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1330-1500)Session:604
Land-atmosphere exchange of trace gasesSpearhead
time since last disturbance. The sequence of four plots was chosen to represent an ecologicalrecovery time series (chronosequence) from a recently disturbed site (1998) to sites disturbed inthe 1960s and ≈1930, and an undisturbed reference site comprising mainly lodgepole pine trees,sphagnum moss and short shrubs. GHG �uxes between the soil surface and the atmosphere weremeasured using portable chamber systems and manual syringe sampling with subsequent analysisusing a gas chromatograph. All ecosystems exhibited strong GHG emissions during summer months,with CH4 dominating total GHG emissions when normalized by global warming potential (GWP).The highest overall CO2 equivalent GHG (CO2e) emissions (64 g CO2e m-2 day-1) were foundin a water-saturated beakrush / threeway sedge (BTS) ecosystem, which experienced continuousanaerobic conditions and actively growing vegetation. Overall, CH4 was responsible for between71% and 97% of net CO2e emissions in the four plots, but measured CH4 �uxes were highlyvariable in space and time. The GHG exchange of CO2 due to photosynthesis and respiration wasof secondary importance compared to CH4 �uxes. No signi�cant emissions or uptake of N2O werefound. Future e�orts will identify controls to guide e�ective GHG emission mitigation strategiesthat can be considered in the bog's restoration management.
14:00Potential future carbon uptake may overcome losses from a large insect outbreak inBritish Columbia, CanadaVivek Arora1, Yiran Peng2, Werner Kurz3, John Fyfe4, Barbara Hawkins5, Arelia Werner61Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada2Tsinghua University3Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada4Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada5Centre for Forest Biology, University of Victoria6Paci�c Climate Impacts Consortium, University of VictoriaContact: [email protected]
Changes in climate due to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere a�ect terres-trial ecosystem processes in a variety of ways. Current evidence suggests that high-latitude forestsare sequestering carbon in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 and changes in climate whichis gradually getting warmer and wetter. Climate change, however, can potentially also increaseoccurrences of both insect outbreaks and �re and these disturbances have been suggested to un-dermine the ability of northern forests to take up and store atmospheric carbon. Here, we use aprocess-based terrestrial ecosystem model for the province of British Columbia (BC), Canada toinvestigate the response of province's ecosystems to continually increasing atmospheric CO2 andchanging climate up to 2100, as well as the recent large mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreakthat started in 1999, in a combined framework. This model's response to increasing atmosphericCO2 and changing climate has been evaluated against observation-based stem wood growth rate incoastal British Columbia. Model simulations for the historical (1900-2005) and future period (2006-2100) for three climate change scenarios suggest that positive e�ects of increasing atmospheric CO2(through the CO2 fertilization e�ect) and changing climate can potentially more than overcome thee�ect of the recent MPB outbreak. Over the 1999-2100 period, the cumulative impact of the recent
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 146
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1330-1500)Session:604
Land-atmosphere exchange of trace gasesSpearhead
MPB outbreak is simulated to be 490 teragrams (1Tg = 1 megatonne) of carbon source, whereasthe natural response of the province's terrestrial ecosystems to increasing CO2 and changing cli-mate is simulated to be around 4000 to 8000 Tg of carbon uptake depending on the climate changescenario.
14:15Satellite-observed changes in terrestrial photosynthetic activity trends across the Asia-Paci�c region associated with land cover and climate from 1982 to 2011Baozhang Chen11Not GivenContact: [email protected]
Understanding how vegetation dynamics respond to climate change is a critical need for projectingfuture ecosystem changes and acclimation in the context of global change. The Asia-Paci�c (AP)region has experienced faster warming than the global average in recent decades. We investigatedthe spatiotemporal changes in both trends of vegetation dynamic indicators and climatic variables(air temperature and precipitation) and analyzed their relations associated with land cover acrossthe AP region from 1982-2011. The main �ndings are fourfold: (1) At continental scales the APregion overall experienced a gradual and signi�cant increasing trend in vegetation growth (at a rateof 6.22 and 3.39 x10-4 NDVI yr-1 for Asia-Australia (AA) and North America (NA) respectively)during the last three decades, and this NDVI trend corresponded with an insigni�cant increasingtrend in temperature (p>0.1, at a rate of 0.007 and 0.004 oC yr-1 for AA and NA, respectively); (2)Vegetation growth was negatively and signi�cantly correlated with the Paci�c Decadal Oscillation(PDO) index and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in AP (p=0.02) and in AA (p=0.008)but insigni�cantly in NA (p=0.57); (3) Of forests and shrubland/savannas, about one third experi-enced a signi�cant increasing trend in vegetation growth (forests with a decreasing trend < 10%); ofcroplands, about half displayed a signi�cant increasing trend in vegetation growth, and half showedinsigni�cant changes; and (4) At pixel scales, except for Australia, both vegetation growth and airtemperature signi�cantly increased in the majority of study regions and vegetation growth spatiallycorrelated with temperature; In Australia and other water-limited regions vegetation growth posi-tively correlated with precipitation (p<0.05). Spatial distribution of changes in vegetation dynamicswere characterized by fragmented and mosaic than that of climate factors.
14:30Surface-layer dispersion: Project Prairie Grass, the turbulent Schmidt number andthe �ux footprintJohn Wilson11Department Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of AlbertaContact: [email protected]
Models for the dispersion of trace gases in the atmospheric surface layer are important in a manycontexts, being (for instance) central to inverse dispersion methods for estimating ground-air ex-change. This talk concerns their correct "calibration," with a focus on the value to be assumedfor the turbulent Schmidt number, i.e. the ratio Sc(0) of the eddy viscosity to the eddy di�usivity,
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 147
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1330-1500)Session:604
Land-atmosphere exchange of trace gasesSpearhead
in the neutral limit. The most common criterion for surface layer dispersion models is the classicProject Prairie Grass (PPG) experiment, but a crucial (and rarely addressed) ambiguity is theextent to which surface deposition of the PPG "tracer" (suphur dioxide) may have a�ected themeasurements: some authors assume Sc(0)=1 and invoke deposition; others neglect deposition,but �t PPG by invoking a reduced Schmidt number Sc(0)≈0.6-0.7, contradicting evidence from�ux-gradient experiments with natural scalars (speci�cally, water vapour). The question of the roleof deposition in PPG will be revisited, by way of simulations using a Lagrangian stochastic modelwith/without surface deposition, and the importance of the Schmidt number will be illustrated inreference to computing the �ux footprint for interpretation of eddy covariance data.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 148
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1330-1500)Session:211
Atmospheric Chemistry and Air QualityWedgemont
13:30Weather, Climate and Air Quality Observations of the Northern Latitudes from aHighly Elliptical OrbitRay Nassar1, Tom McElroy2, Kaley A. Walker3, Chris McLinden1, Chris Sioris2, Dylan B.A.Jones3, Randall Martin4, Yves Rochon1, Louis Garand1, Alexander Trishchenko51Environment Canada2York University3University of Toronto4Dalhousie University5Natural Resources CanadaContact: [email protected]
The Arctic and adjacent northern regions are undergoing changes that have implications for Canadaand the rest of the world. The proposed Polar Communications and Weather (PCW) mission aimsto provide continuous meteorological observations and communications capacity over the Arcticand northern latitudes from a pair of satellites in a highly elliptical orbit (HEO) con�guration.A proposed enhancement to the mission, dedicated to Weather, Climate and Air quality (WCA)observations, completed a separate Phase A study through the Polar Highly Elliptical Orbit Sci-ence (PHEOS) program. The PHEOS-WCA instrument suite would consist of a high resolutionFourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) operating in the mid-, near- and shortwave infrared anda UV-Visible grating Spectrometer (UVS), both with 2-dimensional imaging capability. Theseinstruments would enable dense measurements of numerous species important for understandingweather (H2O and temperature pro�les), climate (column-averaged CO2, CH4), and air quality(tropospheric O3, CO, NO2, SO2, NH3, HCN, CH3OH, BrO) with a pixel size of 10x10 km2 orbetter and repeat time targeted at 2 hours or less. Studies have demonstrated that HEO observa-tions of CO2 o�er major advantages over those from low earth orbit (LEO) for constraining CO2surface sources and sinks in the Arctic and boreal regions, especially in the summer when there isthe potential for the release of CO2 from permafrost thaw and boreal forest disturbances. This pre-sentation will give an overview of the PHEOS-WCA mission concept, discuss its complementaritywith upcoming international satellite missions, and provide an update on recent progress and thechallenges in moving forward.
13:45MOPITT Measurements of Carbon Monoxide: What Else Can We Learn?James Drummond11Dalhousie UniversityContact: [email protected]
On 18th December 1999 the Terra platform was launched from the Vandenberg Air Force basecarrying the Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument. MOPITThas now completed more than years of operation measuring carbon monoxide (CO) over the planetand it is still working! Science does not stand still and our understanding of the measurementprocess has improved greatly in the two decades since the original processing algorithms wereput forward. An example of this progress is shown in the analysis of data from the shortwave
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 149
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1330-1500)Session:211
Atmospheric Chemistry and Air QualityWedgemont
channels of the instrument - initially resistant to processing due to excess noise - that has resultedin considerably more information about the lower atmosphere. This presentation will brie�y look atthe data processing for MOPITT so far but will also look at what might be achieved in the futureOne area of interest is extracting data from pixels with full or partial cloud. Currently these pixelsare discarded, but could be processed to provide additional limited information in areas of activeweather. MOPITT was provided to the Terra spacecraft by the Canadian Space Agency and wasbuilt by COMDEV of Cambridge, Ontario. Data processing is performed by the MOPITT team atthe National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO. Instrument control is by the team atthe University of Toronto.
14:00Cloud Semi-direct E�ect and Its impact on ClimateJiangnan Li1, Knut von Salzen11Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and AnalysisContact: [email protected]
Black carbon (BC), a strong absorber of solar �ux in the atmosphere, can have contributions to thedirect and indirect radiative forcing. In addition, BC exerts the so-called semi-direct e�ect, i.e. thein�uence of aerosols on clouds by directly enhancing the shortwave heating rate. The consequenceof this extra heating due to BC is thought to contribute to the loss of cloud cover as it exacerbatescloud evaporation. However, how to properly calculate the semi-direct e�ect in climate models is anunsolved problem. Therefore, a new parameterization of cloud optical properties with a mixture ofBC is proposed. It is found that the changes in cloud optical properties due to mixture of BC can betreated as a perturbation to existing cloud optical property parameterizations in climate models.The advantage of the proposed scheme is that current cloud optical property parameterizationsused in climate models can be kept. The GCM simulations show that the BC semi-direct e�ectleads to increase in stability below and within clouds. Consequently, the global total cloud fractionis reduced and the energy balance in the atmosphere is a�ected.
14:15Air Quality Prediction using Machines Learning MethodsHuiping Peng1, Aranildo Lima1, William Hsieh1, Alex Cannon2, Andrew Teakles31University of British Columbia2Paci�c Climate Impacts Consortium3Environment CanadaContact: [email protected]
Air quality prediction using the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) method is evaluated againstother methods. Predictor data from Environment Canada's Updatable Model Output Statistics(UMOS) are used to produce hourly spot concentration forecast of ozone (O3), particulate matter2.5 µm (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), up to 48 h for 6 test stations across Canada. Both thebatch ELM model and the online sequential ELM (OSELM) model, which is more meaningful forreal time forecasting, are developed. The prediction performance of the ensemble ELM is evaluatedagainst multiple linear regression (MLR), arti�cial neural network (ANN), Bayesian neural network
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 150
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1330-1500)Session:211
Atmospheric Chemistry and Air QualityWedgemont
(BNN) and the output of UMOS. The OSELM model tends to outperform the linear models (MLR,UMOS) and is fastest among nonlinear models with comparable performance.
14:30Re�ning an Inverse Dispersion Method for Sources on Undulating TerrainNan Hu1, Tom Flesch1, John Wilson11University of AlbertaContact: [email protected]
It is common practice to estimate ground-air gas �uxes (Q) from agricultural sources by inversedispersion, placing gas concentration (C) detectors upwind and downwind from the source. Inmany circumstances however, topography compromises an assumption that is (normally) inherentto the inverse dispersion methodology, namely that wind statistics in the atmospheric surface layerare �undisturbed� (i.e. horizontally-homogeneous). We analysed a trace gas dispersion experimentwith multiple �xed point sources on gently undulating terrain, to investigate the performanceof inverse dispersion using a dispersion model (WindTrax) that encodes a Lagrangian stochastictrajectory model giving wind paths from sources to detectors. Most interestingly, results indicatethat the e�ects of this moderate terrain on the C-Q relationship can be adequately modeled bypostulating an undisturbed Monin-Obukhov �ow in a terrain following height coordinate, thuspermitting easy extension of a well proven method to conditions that, a priori, had been consideredunsuitable. We also used the measurements to study the in�uence (on the accuracy of retrievedQ) of discretionary elements of inverse dispersion procedure. These sensitivity studies addressedoptimal placement of detectors relative to the source(s); data rejection criteria, such as threshholdvalues for the friction velocity and the Obhukhov length; and exclusion of mean wind directionsthat confound the �upwind/downwind� concentration di�erences. We also investigated the impactof alternative spatial representations of the source, supposing one had but partial information inthat regard.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 151
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1530-1700)Session:30503
Climate Variability and Predictability IIIFitzsimmons
15:30Extended-Range Forecast of Tropical Asian Summer MonsoonSong Yang11Sun Yat-sen University, ChinaContact: [email protected]
Results from several recent studies on the extended-range predictability and prediction of Asiansummer monsoon rainfall are presented. The main features discussed include the quasi-biweeklyoscillation over Asia and the Indo-Paci�c Oceans and the subseasonal variations of regional monsoonrainfalls over the Arabian Sea, India, the Bay of Bengal, the Indo-China peninsula, the South ChinaSea, and southern China. The general dependence of prediction skills on location and lead time,and the importance of air-sea interaction and land-atmosphere interaction are focused. The relativein�uences of remote forcing (e.g. El Nino-Southern Oscillation) and local sea surface temperaturefor skills of monsoon rainfall prediction are also assessed. The US NCEP Climate Forecast Systemoutput and multiple observational data sets were used in the studies.
15:45Model skill and sensitivity to initial conditions in a sea-ice prediction systemEdward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth1, Richard Cullather2, Wanqiu Wang3, Jinlun Zhang4, CeciliaBitz11University of Washington2NASA3NOAA4APL, University of WashingtonContact: [email protected]
We explore the skill in seasonal forecasts of September Arctic sea-ice extent in dynamical modelsthat are members of the Sea Ice Outlook. We �nd that the multi-model ensemble only o�ers skillfor the latest summer submission in August, and that throughout the forecasting period skill islower than that found in hindcasts of sea-ice extent performed during earlier periods of the modernsatellite record. The model-mean ensemble o�ers slightly higher skill, but does not beat a dampedpersistence forecast. We also �nd that the models are equally unsuccessful at predicting each other,indicating a large divergence in model physics and/or initial conditions. Motivated by this, weperform an initial condition sensitivity experiment with four Sea Ice Outlook dynamical models.We apply a �xed perturbation to the initial conditions of minus one meter sea ice thickness anomaly,and �nd that the response varies signi�cantly across models. This suggests that di�erent modelphysics across the Sea Ice Outlook make a signi�cant contribution to model uncertainty and forecastskill degradation. Finally, we explore whether the recent Sea Ice Outlook years have been inherentlymore unpredictable than past decades with the use of an idealized experiment.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 152
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1530-1700)Session:30503
Climate Variability and Predictability IIIFitzsimmons
16:00The Climatologically relevant singular vector and its application in climate predictionsYoumin Tang1, Yanjie Cheng2, Siraj ul Islam1
1UNBC2National Climate Center of ChinaContact: [email protected]
In this talk, an e�cient technique for the extraction of climatically relevant singular vectors (CSV)in the presence of weather noise is introduced. Emphasis is placed on the applications of the CSVin seasonal climate predictions. First, the CSV method is validated by an intermediate ENSOmodel. The results show that the algorithm is an e�ective and robust method for the calculationof the climatically relevant singular vectors of CGCM. Then, this algorithm is applied to severalimportant high-impact events of air-sea interaction to study their seasonal climate predictabilityusing CGCMs, including ENSO, South Asian Monsoon, and the seasonal climate anomalies overChina. The CSV-based ensemble technique is developed and evaluated for these CGCMs. Theresults indicates that the CSVs can well characterize the optimal error growth of the predictionsof these events, and all CSV-based ensemble predictions have better skill than traditional time lagensembles (TLE). This suggests that the CSV method be e�ective and signi�cant in improving theseasonal climate prediction, and should be used in operational ensemble climate predictions.
16:15Interdecadal Variability of the mega-ENSO-NAO Synchronization in WinterZhiwei Wu1, Peng Zhang21Not Given2Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyContact: [email protected]
Mega-El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), as two prin-cipal components of the global air-sea coupling system, may have synchronous or out-synchronous�uctuations during di�erent epochs. Understanding such connection change is instrumental for cli-mate prediction, particularly the decadal prediction. Results in this study show that mega-ENSOhas experienced a notable inter-decadal change in its linkage with the winter NAO during thepast 56 years: mega-ENSO was signi�cantly correlated with the NAO during 1957.1981 (or syn-chronous epoch), while such correlation has broken down since 1982 (or out- synchronous epoch).This marked change might be attributed to a sea surface temperature (SST) forcing change in theNorth Atlantic, based on the observational and numerical evidences in this study. The synchronousepoch is concurrent with the anomalous tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SST forcing, whereas theout-synchronous epoch is associated with the anomalous extra-tropical North Atlantic (XNA) SSTforcing. Two possible reasons may explain how the synchronous behaviors between mega-ENSOand the NAO were tied to the TNA SST anomaly (SSTA). There is a positive feedback between theTNA SSTA and the NAO-like atmosphere anomalies, which helps to "prolong" the NAO impactsfrom the developing phase through mature phase of mega-ENSO. Additionally, the TNA SSTAitself may induce a NAO-like atmosphere anomaly. Since 1982, the TNA SSTA has been replacedby the XNA SSTA and the latter primarily favors a NAO-neutral state in the atmosphere, which
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 153
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1530-1700)Session:30503
Climate Variability and Predictability IIIFitzsimmons
ends the synchronous epoch.
16:30Determinants of Summer Weather Extremes over the Canadian Prairies: Implicationsfor Long Lead Grain ForecastingRay Garnett1, Madhav Khandekar21Agro-Climatic Consulting2Consultant-Retired Scientist Environment CanadaContact: [email protected]
Summary: To assess the drivers of weather extremes over the Canadian Prairies, a data matrixof 20 predictor and 11 predictand types was created at the monthly timeframe to explore droughtseverity, summer precipitation, and summer temperature. Applying composite, correlation, andregression techniques, a comprehensive data analysis produced a suite of composites and regressionmodels for providing climatic outlooks a few weeks to a few months in advance of the criticalMay-July growing season for spring wheat. This was done for the Prairies as a whole and for fouragricultural ecological (agro-eco) zones. Among the most important predictors were the MaddenJulian Oscillation (MJO) (a tropical atmospheric oscillation between 20o E. to 10o W. longitude)and Paci�c Decadal Oscillation (PDO) a slow moving oscillation covering the entire Paci�c Basinboth linking large scale predictors and solar parameters like the Averaged Planetary Index (API).An empirical approach, using accumulated monthly values of atmosphere-ocean indices, providesuseful guidance for the forecasting of summer precipitation and temperature and hence grain yieldswith a lead-time of a few weeks to a few months.
16:45GEM-NEMO global coupled model for subseasonal to seasonal predictionsHai Lin1, Ryan Muncaster11RPN-A, Environment CanadaContact: [email protected]
The CMC numerical weather prediction model, GEM, is coupled with the NEMO ocean model.The objective is to develop a global atmosphere-ocean-sea ice coupled model for climate study andsubseasonal and seasonal predictions. In this presentation, the model con�guration is introduced. Amulti-decade integration is analyzed. We focus on the model systematic error, the interannual vari-ability of the tropical Paci�c sea surface temperature (SST) which represents the ENSO variability,and the association of extratropical teleconnections in response to the ENSO. It is found that themodel can produce a reasonable distribution of the SST variability but the amplitude is too weakcomparing to the observations. Several sensitivity experiments are conducted in order to improvethe ENSO simulation. Atmosphere-only GEM integration is also performed over multiple decades,in order to understand the behavior of climate integration of the GEM model and to compare withthe GEM-NEMO coupled integration.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 154
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1530-1700)Session:50902
The Labrador Sea as a Vital element of the climate system IIGaribaldi A
15:30Historical and Recent Hydrographic Variability in the Labrador Sea, and Larger-ScaleLinkagesIgor Yashayaev1, John Loder11Bedford Institute of OceanographyContact: [email protected]
Variability in temperature, salinity, density and dissolved oxygen (DO) in the Labrador Sea, andits importance to the larger-scale Northwest Atlantic, are described using a combination of vessel,Argo �oat and moored measurements. The time-depth evolution of temperature and salinity inthe central LS, going back to OWS Bravo sampling, is updated using Argo pro�les and annualsurvey observations from DFO's Atlantic Zone O�-shelf Monitoring Program. Time series andtime-distance displays for various layers are used to show the cross-basin evolution of anomalieson interannual to decadal time scales. Upper-layer freshening events spread across the Labradorand Nordic Seas in 2008-2010 and 2011-2014, with strongest signals in the coastal and slope waters.Potential linkages to the high recent melt rates of the Arctic and Greenland ice covers, and e�ects onstrati�cation and mixing with deeper waters, are discussed. Over the past two decades the LabradorSea's lower intermediate layer (1000-2000 m) has steadily become warmer and saltier. However,this has occasionally been interrupted, such as in the winters of 2008-2009 and 2013-2014 whenenhanced wintertime convection mixed the accumulated fresher (and warmer) upper-layer waterinto the lower intermediate layer, leading to the formation of two new year- classes of Labrador SeaWater. Dissolved oxygen (DO) pro�les con�rm associated oxygen ventilation, with intermediate-layer concentrations increasing after deep-convection events. In the Sea's abyssal layer which ismostly occupied by the Denmark Strait Over�ow Water transported through the region by theDeep Western Boundary Current, there was an unprecedented increase in salinity, temperature anddensity between 2000 and 2010. Its causes and possible e�ects on the dynamics of the deep watersare discussed together with its upstream and downstream linkages. Collectively, these changesindicate that the Labrador Sea remains an active contributor to the Atlantic Meridional OverturningCirculation, but with strong decadal-scale variability.
15:45Impact of Greenland Melt on the East and West Greenland Currents and the North-West Labrador SeaXianmin Hu1, Paul Myers11Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of AlbertaContact: [email protected] melt is an important freshwater source in the Atlantic subarctic region. The associatedbuoyancy �ux delivered into the East and West Greenland Currents may have a big impact onthe dynamics of the coastal current system as well as downstream lateral freshwater �ux exchangebetween the coast and interior deep basin. The lateral freshwater transport in north and westLabrador Sea has been shown to o�set the surface buoyancy loss in Labrador Sea in previousstudies. To study these questions, a high resolution simulation with a better representation ofGreenland melt/runo� is required. In this study, we will use two NEMO based simulations using
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 155
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1530-1700)Session:50902
The Labrador Sea as a Vital element of the climate system IIGaribaldi A
an Arctic and Northern Hemisphere Atlantic (ANHA) con�guration at 1/4th and 1/12th degreehorizontal resolution. Greenland melt will be based upon the model of Bamber et al. (2012). Totrack the pathway of the meltwater , particularly in the Greenland coastal region and North-WestLabrador sea, multiple online passive tracers will be utilized. Changes in the dynamics of the coastalcurrents and freshwater �ux exchange will also be investigated.
16:00Labrador Sea Water formation rate, 2002-2010, from a numerical model.Yarisbel Garcia Quintana1, Peggy Courtois1, Paul Myers11University of AlbertaContact: [email protected]
The Labrador Sea is the coldest and freshest basin of the subpolar North Atlantic. Two fresh andcold in�ows arriving from the Arctic Ocean to the North Atlantic by way of the Canadian ArcticArchipelago and the East Greenland shelf pass around the Labrador Sea margins. One of these, theLabrador Current represents the main pathway for the equatorward export of cold and fresh watersthat are formed by convection in the Labrador Sea. The Labrador Sea is also a principal contributorto the lower limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). This study presents anestimate of Labrador Sea Water formation rates based upon a kinematic subduction approach byan historical reconstruction of the Labrador Sea over the period 2002-2010. The exchange throughthe moving mixed layer base is calculated based on exchange caused by changes in the mixed layerdepth, and convergence of horizontal transport into or out of the mixed layer. Model �elds weretaken from a NEMO model run using the 1/4 degree Arctic and Northern Hemisphere Atlantic(ANHA4) con�guration.
16:15Using Argo-O2 data to examine the impact of deep-water formation events on oxygenuptake in the Labrador SeaMitchell Wolf1, Roberta Hamme1, Denis Gilbert21University of Victoria2Fisheries and Oceans Canada, The Maurice Lamontagne InstituteContact: [email protected] formation allows the deep ocean to communicate with the atmosphere, facilitatingexchanges of heat as well as important gases such as carbon dioxide and oxygen. The LabradorSea is the most studied location of deep convection in the North Atlantic Ocean. It is a strongcontributor to the global thermohaline circulation, has a large economic and ecological in�uenceon Canada, and yet we are only beginning to understand how deep convection in this locationwill vary with a changing climate. Convection events in the Labrador Sea show great interannualvariability in magnitude, ranging from mixed layers of 100m to those greater than 1000m. Sincethere is no internal source of oxygen below the euphotic zone, a weakening of this deep convectionstarves the deep ocean of oxygen, disrupting crucial deep-sea biological processes, as well as reducingoceanic carbon uptake and ocean circulation. We used data from the extensive Argo �oat networkto examine the impact of deep-water formation events on oxygen uptake in the Labrador Sea,
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 156
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1530-1700)Session:50902
The Labrador Sea as a Vital element of the climate system IIGaribaldi A
particularly a large convection event in the winter of 2007/2008. Using vertical pro�les of oxygen,temperature, and salinity, we determined the change in oxygen inventory over time as well as thedepth of the mixed layer and thus the depth of the deep convection event. We then compared theinventory change to the air-sea oxygen �ux calculated from surface oxygen values along with NCEPwind speed data and a range of air-sea gas exchange parameterizations. This analysis highlightsthe expected relationship between inventory and air-sea �uxes and points toward three-dimensionalcomplexity where they do not agree. Since oxygen exchanges at di�erent rates than carbon dioxide,oxygen provides a di�erent perspective on the e�ect of convection and air-sea exchange on gasuptake and cycling and global ocean circulation.
16:30Recent Oceanographic Variability on the Scotian Slope and Rise, and Upstream Link-agesJohn Loder1, Igor Yashayaev1, Yuri Geshelin1, Miguel Morales Maqueda2, Chris Hughes21Bedford Institute of Oceanography2National Oceanography CentreContact: [email protected]
Aspects of temperature, salinity, density, dissolved oxygen, currents and transport variability overthe Scotian Slope and Rise are described using historical datasets, ongoing vessel observations fromDFO monitoring programs on the extended Halifax line, Argo pro�les, and moored measurements.The latter include near-bottom measurements of currents, hydrography and pressure across theDeep Western Boundary Current during 2004-2014, as part of the UK Rapid Climate Changeprogram. Property distributions and variability are described in relation to upstream subpolarwater masses such as Labrador Slope Water, Labrador Sea Water and Denmark Strait Over�owWater (DSOW), and to Gulf Stream variability. Time series of temperature and salinity in variouslayers and water depth ranges are examined for signals of anthropogenic and natural variability,but �ndings are limited due to strong upper-ocean seasonal variability, episodic in�uences of GulfStream meanders, and sparse deep sampling prior to the mid 1990s. Waters in the 1000-2000m depthrange over the slope have gradually become warmer and saltier since the late 1990s, comparable toconditions in earlier decades. This recent change is similar to that observed over the Labrador Slopesince the early 1990s, which appears to re�ect a gradual recovery from the relatively cool and freshconditions in the Labrador Sea's intermediate layer due to a period of ampli�ed deep convectionstarting in the late 1980s. Nevertheless, anthropogenic warming could also be a contributor. In thedeeper DSOW, there are indications of weak signals from its northern formation region reachingthe Scotian Rise, but interpretation is complicated by indications of recirculations under the GulfStream. Estimates of recent variability in the zonally-integrated meridional transport below andrelative to 1100m are provided, based on the stepping bottom-pressure method of Hughes et al.(2013, J. Atmos. Ocean Tech. 30).
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 157
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1530-1700)Session:50703
Coastal Oceanography and Inland Waters in a Changing Climate IIIGaribaldi B
15:30The combined e�ect of mixing and advection for tracers within a submarine canyonKarina Ramos Musalem1
1UBCContact: [email protected] exchange of water and solutes between the coastal area and the open ocean is of great impor-tance to global biogeochemical �uxes, nutrient budgets and their response to climate change andhuman activities. On a regional scale, submarine canyons are known to enhance physical processessuch as shelf-slope mass exchange, and mixing through breaking of internal waves. The aim ofthis study is to characterize the combined e�ect of advection and mixing in the exchange of trac-ers from slope to shelf near a submarine canyon. A scaling scheme for mixing and transport oftracers within an idealized canyon during upwelling is proposed. Six non- dimensional numbers re-lating isopycnal and diapycnal di�usivities, initial vertical concentration gradients and curvatures,canyon length and width, depth and speed of upwelling characterize the phenomenon. Parameterspace was explored with numerical simulations of an idealized upwelling canyon performed withthe Massachussetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm). The model ranin hydrostatic mode, with a horizontal resolution of 200 m within the canyon and 1 km at theboundaries; in the vertical there were 90 levels with resolution from 5 m to 200 m. Pro�les for�ve nutrients from the Pathways Cruise 2013 over Barkley Canyon (NW Paci�c) were used to �ndcharacteristic values of the non-dimensional parameters. From this case study, it was found thatfor all tracers horizontal advection dominates over isopycnal di�usivity, but vertical advection anddiapycnal di�usivity are both relevant processes. Thus, isopycnal di�usivity may be ignored. Also,diapycnal di�usion impacts concentration faster than isopycnal processes. Horizontal and verti-cal relative gradients are of the same order for all tracers, but vertical second derivatives are notrelevant to the tracers.
15:45On the simulation of Algal Blooms in Lake ErieRam Rao Yerubandi1, Luis Leon2, Craig McCrimmon2, Sue Watson21Environment Canada2Not GivenContact: [email protected]
Lake Erie exhibited one of the largest algal blooms in 2011 caused by a combination of uniqueweather conditions and excessive nutrient loadings into the lake. The external forcing drivers(hydrological discharges and meteorology forcing) in this case, are assumed to have played a majorrole in the extent and intensity of the bloom. Hydrodynamic and water quality models appliedto aquatic ecosystems allow for the simulation of the behavior of such complex processes. In thisstudy we used a coupled 3D hydrodynamic and water quality model, which has been reasonablycalibrated for Lake Erie in previous applications, in order to evaluate its capability to reproduceextreme events as the algal bloom of 2011. The modeling assumptions, �ndings, challenges, andrecommendations for future research are presented.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 158
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1530-1700)Session:50703
Coastal Oceanography and Inland Waters in a Changing Climate IIIGaribaldi B
16:00Satellite Chlorophyll o� the British Columbia Coast, 1997-2010Jennifer Jackson1, Richard Thomson2, Leslie Brown1, Peter Willis1, Gary Borstad11ASL Environmental Sciences Inc.2Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Institute of Ocean SciencesContact: [email protected]
We examine the spatial and temporal variability of satellite-sensed sea surface chlorophyll-a o� thewest coast of North America from 1997 to 2010, with focus on coastal British Columbia. The datawere divided into 15 di�erent regions that corresponded to commercial �shing zones. The variabilityin surface chlorophyll-a is shown to be complex. Amongst the 15 zones we compare the timing ofthe spring bloom, the timing of the peak chlorophyll abundance, and the magnitude of surfacechlorophyll values. Based on these indicators we de�ne 6 distinct surface chlorophyll regimes forthe coastal northeast Paci�c Ocean. The highest satellite-sensed chlorophyll concentrations occurin the Strait of Georgia, where mean values are at least two times higher than elsewhere in thenortheast Paci�c. Moreover, the annual average surface chlorophyll concentration has increasedsigni�cantly in the Strait of Georgia from 5.9 mg m-3 in 1998 (a major El Nino year) to 8.9 mg m-3in 2010 (a moderate El Nino year), suggesting an enhancement of biological productivity. Similarly,surface chlorophyll in the waters north and east of Haida Gwaii increased from 2.0 mg m-3 in 1998to 2.8 mg m-3 in 2010.
16:15The interplay of denitri�cation and deep-water renewal dynamics in Saanich InletRoberta Hamme1, Johanna Berry1, Jody Klymak1, Kenneth Denman11University of VictoriaContact: [email protected] nutrients limit productivity in much of the surface ocean, and yet their rates ofproduction and removal from the ocean are poorly constrained. Denitri�cation and related processesin low oxygen environments transform biologically available nutrients like nitrate to unavailable N2gas. We investigate this process using in situ sensors from the VENUS cabled observatory atmid-depth in Saanich Inlet, a seasonally anoxic fjord in British Columbia. We derive N2 excessby combining total dissolved gas pressure from a gas tension device (GTD) with dissolved oxygenmeasurements. We �nd that a previously ignored correction for the e�ects of hydrostatic pressureon gas partial pressures at depth signi�cantly improves the GTD results, while calibration of theoxygen sensor is the largest uncertainty. High rates of denitri�cation in the bottom waters of SaanichInlet over most of the year have been shown to generate high excess N2. During deep-water renewalevents in 2012 and 2013, we observed rapidly declining oxygen and increasing N2 excess at our mid-depth location for several days. We interpret these changes as deep anoxic waters being pushed tothe mid-depth sensor location by new dense water that �ows to the bottom. Following each activerenewal event, we describe a recovery period during which oxygen increases and N2 falls for severaldays. The recovery period appears to be caused by lateral mixing with new waters entering atshallower depths on the opposite side of the inlet.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 159
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1530-1700)Session:50703
Coastal Oceanography and Inland Waters in a Changing Climate IIIGaribaldi B
16:30Long-term variability of pH and aragonite saturation state in the Strait of GeorgiaBen Moore-Maley1, Susan Allen1, Debby Ianson21University of British Columbia2Institute of Ocean SciencesContact: [email protected] one-dimensional bio-physical model is used to investigate the relative importance of local vari-ability and long-term shelf trends on pH and aragonite saturation state in the southern Strait ofGeorgia, British Columbia. Dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity are modeled asstate variables in order to produce pH and aragonite saturation state as outputs. Hourly meteo-rological observations and daily freshwater �uxes are used to force seasonal-scale model behaviour,while a probability distribution of continental shelf DIC estimated from 30 years of temperatureand oxygen observations is used to simulate long-term shelf variability. Near-surface pH and arag-onite saturation state range seasonally from approximately 7.7 to 8.3 and approximately 0.5 to2.0, respectively, with a persistent aragonite saturation horizon at 20 m depth which shoals to thesurface in winter and during large Fraser River freshets. Long-term variability of near-surface pHand aragonite saturation state modeled using the extremes of the shelf DIC probability distributionis on the order of the seasonal-scale variability. Results highlight the roles of both local processesand larger ocean trends in producing extremes of pH and aragonite saturation state in coastalsystems.
16:45The vulnerability of the Strait of Georgia to Ocean Acidi�cation and HypoxiaDebby Ianson1, Susan Allen2, Ben Moore-Maley2, Sophia Johannessen1, Robie Macdonald11Fisheries and Oceans Canada2University of British ColumbiaContact: [email protected]
The Strait of Georgia (SoG), British Columbia is a relatively large (200 X 30 km) semi-enclosedbasin that hosts signi�cant aquaculture (mostly shell�sh). The exchange between this basin andthe Paci�c Ocean is thought to occur primarily at its southern end via a number of narrow Straits,the deepest of which is Haro. Waters entering the SoG from Haro Strait (the subsurface returnestuarine circulation) are heavily modi�ed within the Haro region. Here we investigate the relativeroles of O2 and CO2 gas exchange in this turbulent region in protecting the highly productive SoGfrom subsurface hypoxia and ocean acidi�cation, respectively.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 160
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1530-1700)Session:208
Atmospheric Interfaces in the ArcticHarmony
15:30The climatological distribution of extreme Arctic winds, and implications for oceanand sea ice processes.Mimi Hughes1, John Cassano21NOAA2University of Colorado, BoulderContact: [email protected]
Some of the strongest near-surface winds on Earth form in the Arctic and sub-Arctic due to intensemid-latitude cyclones and mesoscale processes, and these strong surface winds have important im-pacts on ocean and sea ice processes. We examine the climatological distribution of over-ocean, near-surface wind speeds within a pan-Arctic domain for 18 years (1990-2007) in four gridded datasets:the ECMWF Interim reanalysis (ERA-I), the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), version2 of the common ocean-ice reference experiment dataset (COREv2), and a regional climate simula-tion generated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run at 50 km (WRF50)horizontal resolutions with ERA Interim as lateral boundary conditions. We estimate probabilitydensity functions, the annual cycle, and map the 50th and 99th percentile winds. We then performthe same statistical analysis of winds for two years when 10km WRF data are available (June 2005to May 2007); despite the much shorter time period, the Pan-Arctic statistics are very similar tothose from the 18-year analysis. We repeat the wind speed statistical analysis within a subdo-main surrounding Greenland and �nd that WRF10 has consistently larger maximum wind speeds,but this di�erence only appears at wind speed percentiles higher than 99 percent. Di�erences inthe 99th percentile wind speeds are spatially heterogeneous. An investigation of surface �uxeswithin WRF50 and WRF10 reveals unrealistically large sensible heat �uxes along the sea ice edge,and the geographic distribution and magnitude of these �uxes is shown to be sensitive to sea icerepresentation in WRF.
15:45The Polar Environment Atmospheric Research Laboratory (PEARL) at Eureka,NunavutJames Drummond1, Science Team PEARL1
1Dalhousie UniversityContact: [email protected]
The Canadian High Arctic is very di�erent from lower latitudes and this is particularly true forthe atmosphere. The lower atmosphere has no surface solar heating term for a large portion of theyear; the winter Arctic vortex and lack of sunlight produces a di�erent and variable chemistry forthe middle atmosphere and in the upper reaches of the atmosphere the interaction of the magneticpole, charged particles and the solar wind produces unique e�ects. In addition, the whole region isundergoing rapid changes due to both natural and anthropogenic in�uences. The Polar EnvironmentAtmospheric Research Laboratory (PEARL) at Eureka, Nunavut (80N, 86W) is one of Canada'smajor research measurement platforms in the High Arctic. Since 2005 atmospheric measurementsat PEARL have been conducted by an international team on a year-round basis using a widevariety of instruments to help us understand this environment and how it interacts with the rest of
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 161
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1530-1700)Session:208
Atmospheric Interfaces in the ArcticHarmony
the planet. Research at these latitudes is not easy and the challenges are many ranging from theharsh environment that rapidly degrades equipment through the �nancial challenges of keeping thelaboratory functioning to the operational issues as basic as electricity, water and sewage. Howeverthe results are well worth the investment. This paper will give an overview of the PEARL facility.Other papers in the conference will outline the speci�c research in progress. PEARL is supported bythe Natural Sciences and Engineering Council (NSERC), Environment Canada (EC), the CanadianSpace Agency (CSA) and Dalhousie University.
16:00Atmosphere-Ice-Ocean Interactions During Summer Melt and Early Autumn Freeze-up: Observations from the ACSE Field ProgramOla Persson1, Peggy Achtert2, Goran Bjork3, Barbara Brooks2, Ian Brooks2, John Prytherch2, Do-minic Salisbury2, Joseph Sedlar4, Matthew Shupe1, Georgia Sotiropoulou4, Michael Tjernstrom4,Paul Johnston11Univ. of Colorado CIRES-NOAA-ESRL-PSD2School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds3Dept. of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg4Dept. of Meteorology and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm UniversityContact: [email protected]
Surface energy �uxes are key to the annual summer melt and autumn freeze-up of Arctic sea ice,but are strongly modulated by interactions between atmospheric, ocean, and sea-ice processes. Thispresentation will examine direct observations of energy �uxes during summer melt and the onset ofautumn freeze-up from the Arctic Clouds in Summer Experiment (ACSE), and place them in contextof those from other observational campaigns. The ACSE �eld program obtained measurements ofsurface energy �uxes, boundary-layer structure, cloud macro- and microphysical structure, andupper-ocean thermal and salinity structure from pack-ice and open-water regions in the easternArctic from early July to early October 2014. Summer measurements showed energy �ux surplusesleading to signi�cant surface melt, while late August and September measurements showed de�cits,leading to freeze-up of sea ice and the ocean surface. The de�cits were at �rst sporadic, but dailymean net energy �uxes were consistently negative after September 15. The surface albedo andprocesses impacting the energy content of the upper ocean appear key to producing a temporaldi�erence between the freeze-up of the sea ice and adjacent open water. While synoptic conditions,atmospheric advection, and the annual solar cycle have primary in�uence determining when energy�uxes are conducive for melt or freeze, mesoscale atmospheric phenomena unique to the ice edgeregion may also play a role. the variability of individual terms of the surface energy budget areexamined to suggest the relative importance of the various processes.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 162
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1530-1700)Session:208
Atmospheric Interfaces in the ArcticHarmony
16:15High Frequency Temperature and Pressure Measurements in Very Stable WinterBoundary Layers at the Eureka Flux TowerGlen Lesins1, James Drummond1, Robert Albee21Dalhousie University2NOAA ESRLContact: [email protected]
The boundary layer in the winter high Arctic is typically very stable as a result of longwave radiativecooling and the lack of sunlight. During the frequent periods of very light surface winds traditionalmixing length turbulence theory may be unable to correctly predict the �uxes between the surfaceand the atmosphere. Surface �uxes related to gravity waves, density currents and drainage �ows candominate. This will have important implications for understanding and predicting the magnitudeof Arctic Ampli�cation of surface temperature which is primarily a cold season e�ect, and forevaluating the reliability of gas �uxes between the surface and atmosphere where winter observationsare typically very challenging. The �ux tower at Eureka, 80degN on Ellesmere Island, has recentlybeen modi�ed to include a 50 Hz micro-barometer and to record the 2, 6 and 10 m air temperaturesat 1 second intervals. The �rst results for the 2014-15 winter season will be presented. Of note is thedecoupling of the pressure time series from the temperature time series. The pressure �uctuationsappear to be driven by deep boundary layer height �uctuations whereas the temperature �uctuationsare forced by very shallow surface �ows. The implications for surface-air �uxes including sensibleheat and trace gases will be discussed.
16:30Evaluation of the Land Surface Climate in the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM)Joseph Hamman1, Bart Nijssen1, Michael Brunke2, Xubin Zeng2, Andrew Roberts3, WieslawMaslowski31Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington2Department of Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Arizona3Department of Oceanography, Naval Postgraduate SchoolContact: [email protected]
The Arctic region is experiencing disproportionately severe impacts due to climate change, a�ectingsea ice, seasonal snow cover, stream�ow, permafrost, glaciers, and ice sheets as well as terrestrialand aquatic ecosystems. We use the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) version 1.0, to bet-ter understand how changes in these processes may prompt non-linear responses and feedbacksthroughout the Arctic region climate system. The net e�ect of these feedbacks is not easily under-stood without the use of coupled earth system models that allow us to evaluate the interactionsbetween components of the climate system; determine the extent, magnitude, and sign of complexfeedback processes; and to project the climate system's response to future perturbations. RASM isa high resolution, regional, coupled atmosphere - land - sea ice - ocean model that uses the Com-munity Earth System Model (CESM) coupling infrastructure over a Pan-Arctic domain. RASM iscomposed of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model, the Variable In�l-tration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model, the RVIC stream�ow routing model, the Parallel Ocean
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 163
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1530-1700)Session:208
Atmospheric Interfaces in the ArcticHarmony
Program (POP) model and the Los Alamos Sea Ice model (CICE). We evaluate RASM's abilities tocapture key features of the land surface climate and hydrological cycle over the modern era (1979-present) through comparisons with reanalysis data sets, satellite estimates and in-situ observations.Of particular interest is the model's ability to capture diurnal, seasonal, and interannual variationsin energetic and hydrologic �uxes and states at the land surface.
16:45Coordinated observations of Dynamics in the Arctic Polar Mesosphere and Thermo-sphere: The Dynamics of the Neutral Thermosphere ProjectWilliam Ward1, Alan Manson2, Marianna Shepherd3, Qian Wu4, Wayne Hocking5, Young-MinCho3, Uma Das1, Nayeob Gi1, Samuel Kristo�ersen1, Chris Meek2, Chris Vail61University of New Brunswick2University of Saskatchewan3York University4NCAR5Western University6University of new BrunswickContact: [email protected] observations of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere at the Polar sites of Eurekaand Resolute Bay were initiated in the fall of 2014 as a project termed Dynamics of the NeutralThermosphere (through support from the Canadian Space Agency). These observations provideinformation on the coupling processes that link the lower atmosphere and the upper atmosphere.Analysis of observations of backround wind, temperature and airglow emissions and associated waveinduced variability in the mesopause region and in the mid-thermosphere provide insights into theextent and form of this coupling. The existing instrumentation at these sites has been augmentedand existing instrumentation repaired and modernized. As a result dynamical information at bothlocations will be observed in the meosopause region and thermosphere. Instrumentation includes ameteor radar (mesopause region winds), a red-line Fabry-Perot (thermospheric winds, airglow radi-ance), a �eld-widened Michelson interferometer (mesopause region winds and radiance), a spectralairglow temperature imager (SATI; temperature, airglow radiance) and an all-sky imager (airglowradiance) at Eureka and a multiple emission Fabry-Perot (mesopause and thermospheric winds, air-glow radiance), a meteor radar (mesopause region winds) and all sky imager (airglow radiance) atResolute Bay. The dynamical signatures observed at the two sites (≈500 km apart) are being usedto identify signature that are spatially correlated (horizontally and/or vertically) and to contrastand compare conditions at the two sites. Collaborations with Polardarn and RISR are also beingplanned. This paper describes this project and its goals and some results from the �rst season ofobservations. Data from this project is publicly available at www.candac.ca.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 164
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1530-1700)Session:704
Atmosphere Ocean and Climate DynamicsSpearhead
15:30A Geometric Decomposition of Eddy-Mean Flow InteractionsStephanie Waterman1, Jonathan Lilly21University of British Columbia2NorthWest Research AssociatesContact: [email protected] eddy-mean �ow interactions is a long-standing problem in geophysical �uid dynamicswith modern relevance to the task of representing eddy e�ects in coarse resolution models. Eddymomentum �uxes are captured by the eddy covariance matrix, which also encodes informationabout eddy size, shape, and orientation through its geometric representation in the form of theso-called variance ellipse. Exploiting this recognition suggests a potentially fruitful way forward byo�ering a description of eddy-mean �ow interactions in terms of eddy ellipse geometry. Here wepresent a framework that describes eddy-mean �ow interactions in terms of ellipse geometry, andillustrate it with an application to an unstable jet. We show that the eddy vorticity �ux divergenceF, a key dynamical quantity describing the average e�ect of eddies on the time-mean �ow, maybe decomposed into two components with distinct geometric interpretations: i) variations in thevariance ellipse orientation; and ii) variations in the anisotropic part of the eddy kinetic energy,itself a function of the variance ellipse size and shape. Application of the divergence theorem showsthat F integrated over a region is explained entirely by variations in these two quantities aroundthe region's periphery. This framework has the potential to o�er new insights into eddy-mean �owinteractions in a number of ways. It identi�es the ingredients of the eddy motion that have a mean�ow forcing e�ect; it links eddy e�ects to spatial patterns of variance ellipse geometry that canpotentially suggest mechanisms underpinning these e�ects; and �nally it illustrates the importanceof resolving eddy shape and orientation, and not just eddy kinetic energy, for accurately representingeddy e�ects.
16:00Southern Ocean cooling in a warming world: reassessing the role of westerly windsYavor Kostov1, John Marshall1, Kyle Armour1, Ute Hausmann11Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyContact: [email protected]
In contrast to the global warming trend and the loss of Arctic sea ice, the Southern Ocean hasexhibited a gradual decrease in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and a net expansion of the sea icecover over recent decades. Moreover, historical simulations with CMIP5 global climate models donot reproduce the observed cooling around Antarctica and, instead, predict slow but steady warmingand sea ice loss. Here we identify enhanced wind-driven Ekman transport as a possible dynamicalmechanism allowing the Southern Ocean to cool. We furthermore discuss the discrepancy betweenobservations and CMIP5 historical simulations. The latter underestimate the strengthening andthe poleward shift of the Southern Hemisphere surface westerlies - due either to an inadequaterepresentation of ozone forcing or, perhaps, internal variability contributing to the observed windtrends. We propose that under a realistic evolution of surface winds, CMIP5 models can producecooling trends around Antarctica with magnitudes and spatial patterns similar to observations. To
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 165
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1530-1700)Session:704
Atmosphere Ocean and Climate DynamicsSpearhead
that end we consider the unforced preindustrial control runs of CMIP5 models and examine periodswith multidecadal trends in the speed and position of the Southern Hemisphere surface westerliesthat are comparable to the 1979-2014 trends. Strengthening and southward displacement of surfacewinds produce an SST dipole around Antarctica: cooling south of 50S and warming in a zonal bandalong 30-50S, similar to observed patterns. These wind-induced cooling trends in the SouthernOcean are large enough to locally overwhelm the e�ect of greenhouse gas forcing and allow thesea ice cover to expand in a warming world. We compare our �ndings to those of recent modelingstudies which suggest that ozone depletion results in warming around Antarctica.
16:15Modelling Near surface winds in the Nocturnal Boundary LayerAmber Holdsworth1, Tim Rees1, Adam Monahan21Not Given2University of VictoriaContact: [email protected]
During the night a shallow, stably strati�ed layer forms near the surface with a weakly strati�edlayer above. In the presence of cloud-cover or large-scale pressure gradient forces the strati�cationis relatively weak and characterized by the presence of sustained turbulence. In contrast, clearskies and relatively weak pressure gradients can lead to the collapse of turbulence which resultsin a very stable layer characterized by intermittent bursts of turbulence. Existing physical modelsfail to capture these dynamics. To understand why we present an intercomparison of existing 1Dnumerical models of wind and temperature with �xed winds at the upper boundary and �xedheat �uxes at the base. These models predict two equilibrium states for low heat �uxes, and noequilibrium above a threshold heat �ux. Using the idea that unstable solutions correspond to thecollapse of turbulence in the atmospheric boundary layer we investigate the stability properties ofthe eigenvalue problem, examine the number of unstable eigenmodes and their growth rate andexplain the physical relevance of the results.
16:30The role of standing waves in driving persistent anomalies of upward wave activity�uxOliver Watt-Meyer1, Paul Kushner11University of TorontoContact: [email protected]
Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are extreme dynamical events occurring in the wintertimestratosphere that consist of a reversal of the typical westerly circulation and a simultaneous warmingof the polar region by 30-40K over the course of a few days. After these events occur, there is aslow downward propagation to the troposphere of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) anomaliesassociated with them. This implies that prediction of certain weather variables can be improvedon extended range timescales with knowledge of the occurrence of SSWs in the stratosphere. Itis known that anomalous vertical wave activity �ux from the troposphere is the primary driver ofSSWs. We investigate the mechanisms underlying persistent wave activity �ux pulses using the
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 166
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1530-1700)Session:704
Atmosphere Ocean and Climate DynamicsSpearhead
linear interference framework. We establish that the component of upward wave activity �ux thatis linearly coherent with the stationary wave pattern is more persistent than the total wave activity�ux itself. Decomposing the wave anomaly into standing and travelling parts, we show that lowfrequency standing waves are primarily responsible for this persistence. These standing waves havepreferred zonal positions, and tend to reinforce and attenuate the climatological wave. Furthermore,we �nd that standing waves drive the connection between vertical wave activity �ux anomalies andpolar vortex strength. This holds for both correlations over all days, and during extreme eventssuch as SSWs. The low frequency of the standing waves suggests a possibility for longer lead-timeprediction of extreme stratospheric circulation changes, and hence the subseasonal forecasting oftropospheric NAM related variables.
16:45From Snowball Earth to the Runaway Greenhouse: multiple climate states of EarthnowColin Goldblatt11University of VictoriaContact: [email protected]
Earth has numerous stable steady state climates. With Earth's present atmospheric compositionand solar �ux, there are at least three stable states (Snowball Earth, temperate and post-runawaygreenhouse). Yes, I do mean that: we are at least tri-stable here and now, and su�cient thermalperturbation could cause transition (1000ppm CO2 is not enough). More nuanced models addeven more distinct climates from known (e.g. Laurentide ice sheet on/o�) to novel (a 500K oceanstabilized by increasing Rayleigh scattering optical depth with evaporation). Adding in tuningparameters like pCO2, pN2 or solar constant can help these and other states to emerge in counter-intuative ways. Various observables can be brought to bear on the problem: �ux measurementsof the local runaway greenhouse in the tropics con�rms a low calculated OLR limit; the geologicrecord gives evidence of the various climates possible; comparative climatology helps in many ways.Understanding the large scale dynamics of Earth's climate gives the context for understandingclimate change, even if (thankfully) we will expect to remain in our own boring little bit of phasespace.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 167
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1530-1700)Session:209
Polar Clouds Precipitation and AerosolsWedgemont
15:30The interplay of Arctic surface �uxes, stratocumulus clouds, and cloud-driven mixedlayersMatthew Shupe1, Ola Persson11University of ColoradoContact: [email protected]
In recent years, Arctic stratiform clouds have been shown to form and persist over long periods via acomplex web of interactions and feedbacks within the climate system. Doppler measurements fromground-based remote sensors have helped elucidate the dynamical structure of these clouds, whereinradiative cooling in the cloud itself drives turbulent mixing within and below the cloud. This so-called cloud-driven mixed layer can have important implications for the cloud related to local-scaleenergy and moisture feedbacks that help maintain the cloud in the face of dissipative processes.One key source of energy and moisture, as well as aerosols, for low-level Arctic clouds can be thesurface, which seasonally consists of open water, tundra, sea-ice, snow, and various combinations ofthese. The degree to which the cloud-driven mixed layer interacts with the surface and atmosphericboundary layer has implications both for sustaining the cloud itself and for determining the impactof the cloud on the surface energy budget. Moreover, these interactions are likely to vary by season.This study draws linkages between these cloud and surface processes using two groups of derivedparameters at the North Slope of Alaska atmospheric observatory and related observatories at otherArctic locations. One is a product that characterizes the cloud properties including microphysics,turbulence, and the cloud-driven mixed layer. This product is used to assess the coupling state ofthe cloud system with the surface and the e�ect that the clouds have on atmospheric radiation. Thesecond product assembles important terms in the surface energy budget, including both radiativeand turbulent heat �uxes. The relation of these various quantities under conditions when the cloudsystem is coupled to, and decoupled from, the surface are contrasted to examine the processes thatdetermine the cloud-surface coupling state and its impact on the surface.
15:45Satellite Constraints on the Roles of Supercooled Liquid and Snowfall on Arctic Energyand Water CyclesTristan L'Ecuyer1, Elin McIlhattan11University of Wisconsin-MadisonContact: [email protected] analyses of ground-based observations have emphasized the importance of supercooled liquidcontaining clouds and falling snow in modulating surface energy and mass balance in the Arctic.Extended data records available from a few sites have further hinted at relationships between theliquid water contents of Arctic clouds and the presence and intensity of falling snow. A compre-hensive understanding of these relationships and an accounting of the impact of supercooled liquidwater and snowfall on the Arctic energy and water cycles have, however, remained elusive due tothe limited availability of quality long-term datasets and the poor sensitivity of passive satellitemeasurements over bright/high emissivity snow and ice surfaces. This presentation will explorethe extent to which observations from active sensors in the A-Train constellation can be used to
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 168
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1530-1700)Session:209
Polar Clouds Precipitation and AerosolsWedgemont
probe the elusive relationships between supercooled liquid clouds, snowfall, and the surface radia-tive budget from 60 to 82oN. Despite their sampling limitations and relatively short lifetimes, itwill be demonstrated that CloudSat and CALIPSO observations provide valuable insights into theprocesses that relate these key in�uences on the Arctic energy and water cycles.
16:00Changing arctic cloud properties at the sea-ice edge measured by airborne observationsfrom Fall 2014Samuel LeBlanc1, Jens Redemann2,Michal Segal-Rosenheimer3, Yohei Shinozuka3, Connor Flynn4,Philip Russell2, K. Sebastian Schmidt5, Shi Song5, Anthony Bucholtz6, Elizabeth Reid6, BruceAnderson7, Chelsea Corr11ORAU2NASA Ames Research Center3BAERI4Paci�c Northwest National Laboratory5ATOC6Naval Research Laboratory7NASA Langley Research CenterContact: [email protected]
Additional co-authors: Edward L. Winstead , Richard Moore, Kenneth L. Thornhill, MichelleHofton, Helen G. Cornejo, and William L. Smith Jr. NASA Langley Research Center University ofMaryland SGT Inc. and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center We present changing cloud proper-ties observed over a transect of sea ice to open water obtained from a retrieval applied to airbornemeasurements of transmitted sunlight and other airborne measurements. During the recent ArcticRadiation, IceBridge and Sea-Ice Experiment (ARISE), which occurred in Fall 2014, an airborneresearch platform was used to quantify cloud thermodynamic phase, e�ective radius, optical depth,and physical geometry. On September 19th, 2014, we sampled clouds near the transition zonebetween sea ice and open ocean in the Beaufort Sea by �ying above, within, and below cloud. Sam-pling of these clouds was achieved via in situ cloud probes, transmission-based, re�ection-based,and active remote sensors. Cloud properties retrieved near the sea-ice transition zone by satellitemeasurements, such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), often returnlarge uncertainties partly due to the highly re�ective surface and highly variable surface albedo.Using measurements of transmitted sunlight and below cloud irradiance instead of re�ectance usedby space-based remote sensors, we reduce the uncertainty related to surface albedo. Since tradi-tional remote sensing methods of determining cloud particle size from re�ectance result in largeuncertainties when applied to transmittance, a new retrieval method is employed. We present thisrecently developed cloud property retrieval technique based on zenith radiance measured by theSpectrometer for Sky-Scanning, Sun-Tracking Atmospheric Research (4STAR) during ARISE. Thistechnique relies on 15 parameters that quantify spectral features in sunlight transmitted throughclouds that are sensitive to cloud optical thickness, e�ective radius, and thermodynamic phase. Thespectral features are shifts in spectral slopes, curvatures, maxima, and minima of cloud-transmittedradiance resulting from absorption and scattering of light by clouds. It is by using this new re-
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 169
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1530-1700)Session:209
Polar Clouds Precipitation and AerosolsWedgemont
trieval method in combination with measurements from other airborne instruments that we gain apreliminary understanding of cloud physics at the sea-ice edge.
16:15Cloud in�uence on the surface energy budget of the Greenland Ice SheetNathaniel Miller1, Matthew Shupe1, Christopher Cox1, David Noone21University of Colorado2Oregon State UniversityContact: [email protected] surface energy budget plays a critical role in determining the mass balance of the GreenlandIce Sheet, which in turn has signi�cant implications for global sea levels. Nearly three years of data(January 2011 - October 2013) are used to characterize the annual cycle of surface radiative �uxesand cloud radiative forcing (CRF) of the central Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) at Summit Station.The surface albedo is high at Summit throughout the year, limiting the cooling e�ect of clouds andthus the total CRF is dominated by cloud longwave warming e�ects in all months. The annualaverage CRF is 33 W m-2, representing a substantial net cloud warming of the central Greenlandsurface. Unlike other Arctic sites, at Summit Station the maximum CRF occurs in July, wherethe annual cycle of CRF is largely driven by the occurrence of liquid-bearing clouds, with a min-imum in spring and maximum in late summer. Longwave cloud forcing promotes thermodynamicequilibration between the surface and the cloud base, modifying boundary-layer stability and thedepth of the mixed layer. Boundary layer and surface responses under various cloud forcing condi-tions are investigated by analysis of cloud forcing results alongside observations of turbulent �uxes.A conceptual model is developed for understanding the Greenland Ice Sheet surface response toclouds.
16:30Aircraft-measured indirect cloud e�ects from biomass burning smoke in the ArcticLauren Zamora1, Ralph Kahn2, Bruce Anderson3, Greg McFarquhar4, Armin Wisthaler5, AllaZelenyuk6, Luke Ziemba31ORAU2NASA GSFC3NASA LARC4University of Illinois5University of Oslo6PNNLContact: [email protected]
The incidence of wild�res in the Arctic and subarctic is increasing; in boreal North America, forexample, the burned area is expected to increase by 200- 300% over the next 50-100 years. In somecases, local and long-range smoke transported to the Arctic has already increased aerosol concen-trations twofold, which previous studies suggest could have a large e�ect on cloud microphysics,lifetime, albedo, and precipitation. However, the interactions between smoke particles and cloudsremain poorly understood, because of a) the confounding in�uence of varying meteorological andsurface conditions, b) limitations of remote sensing data in polar regions, and c) limited in situ data
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 170
Oral Presentations
Wednesday June 3 (1530-1700)Session:209
Polar Clouds Precipitation and AerosolsWedgemont
coverage. Here, we combine data from multiple aircraft campaigns (including the Arctic Researchof the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites campaign (ARCTAS), the Indi-rect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC), and the First ISCCP Regional Experiment ArcticClouds Experiment (FIRE.ACE)) to better constrain e�ects of smoke on Arctic and subarctic cloudmicrophysics. From the most extensive in situ datasets available, we were able to compare cloudssampled under similar meteorological conditions, con�rming expectations that smoky liquid-phaseclouds have substantially smaller cloud droplet radii compared to clouds sampled in backgroundconditions, consistent with the Twomey e�ect. Across all samples, the average cloud droplet radiiin smoky liquid phase clouds (4.5±2.3 µm, n=7) were about half the size of those in the averageobserved background cloud (8.5±1.9 µm, n=20). Having calibrated the technique for the simplerliquid-phase cloud situation, continuing work involves assessing the impacts of smoke on mixed andice phase clouds to more fully characterize the impact of smoke on Arctic clouds.
16:45Polar winter aerosol optical depth (AOD) : spectrally and temporally cloud-screened(starphotometer) AODs compared with CALIOP and GEOS-Chem estimatesKonstantin Baibakov1, Liviu Ivanescu1, Sareh Hesaraki1, Norm O'Neill1, Tom Duck2, RandallMartin2, Chris Perro2, Andreas Herber3, Christoph Ritter4, Otto Schrems31Université de Sherbrooke2Dalhousie University3Alfred Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven4Alfred Wegener Institute, PotsdamContact: [email protected]
Aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements were acquired during the Polar winters of 2010-2011and 2011-2012 using ground- based starphotometry at the Eureka, NV, PEARL (Polar Environ-ment Atmospheric Research Laboratory) observatory and the Ny Alesund (Spitsbergen) Koldewaystation. Both temporal and spectral cloud screening were applied to the AOD spectra and theresults were compared to analogous AODs derived from CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Or-thogonal Polarization) pro�les and GEOS-Chem simulations. The results underscore the fact thatthe typically weak AODs measured in the high Arctic must have been preprocessed to eliminatethe e�ects of both homogeneous and inhomogeneous clouds.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 171
Oral Presentations
Thursday June 4 (1030-1200)Session:505
New Approaches to Ocean ObservingFitzsimmons
10:30The �rst year of autonomous water column measurements in Saanich Inlet: TheSaanich Inlet Buoy Pro�ling SystemAkash Sastri1, Richard Dewey2, Steve Mihaly1, Jody Klymak21Ocean Networks Canada2University of VictoriaContact: [email protected]
Ocean Networks Canada installed a cabled water column pro�ling system in Saanich Inlet on theVENUS coastal observatory in June 2014. This inshore system consists of an instrument packagelowered and raised through the water column (≈200 m) by a winch mounted to a large surface�oat. A meteorological system equipped with air pressure, wind speed/direction, air temperatureand humidity sensors is a�xed to the top-side of the surface �oat. A downward facing 200 kHzzooplankton acoustic pro�ling echosounder is attached to the bottom of the �oat. The pro�lingpackage presently consists of a CTD, dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll �uorescence, and turbiditysensors. Pro�les were limited to 2 per day during the �rst commissioning phase (June-December2014), which was expanded to 4 and later 6 pro�les per day starting in January 2015. Here, wepresent the �rst year of continuous water column measurements, high-lighting operational issuesand signals related to periodic deep- and mid-water intrusions into the fjord from the Strait ofGeorgia.
10:45Surface drift in the Douglas Channel area: adventures with a low cost satellite trackeddrifter.Charles Hannah1, Tamas Juhasz1, Stephen Page11Fisheries and Oceans CanadaContact: [email protected]
The World Class Prevention, Preparedness and Response for Oil Spills from Ships Initiative is amajor program of the Government of Canada to improve the overall regime under which oil tankersoperate in Canada. Oceanography plays a small but vital role in this Initiative. An important partof the observational program for the north coast of BC has been the development and deploymentof a low cost satellite tracked drifter. This talk will present results from the deployment of over100 drifters over 12 months. We will look at circulation pathways and drift statistics that could beuseful for emergency response planning.
11:00Operating Oceanographic HF Radar Systems in the Coastal Waters of BCKevin Bartlett1, Paul Macoun1, Richard Dewey21Ocean Networks Canada2University of VictoriaContact: [email protected]
Coastal Ocean Dynamics Applications Radar (CODAR) systems employ high-frequency (HF) radarsignals from multiple antennae to detect and map surface currents. Ocean Networks Canada has
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 172
Oral Presentations
Thursday June 4 (1030-1200)Session:505
New Approaches to Ocean ObservingFitzsimmons
been collecting HF-Radar current measurements since 2011 in the central southern portion of theStrait of Georgia. These initial two antennae were deployed on either side of the mouth of theFraser River, one to the north at the Iona Waste-water Treatment Plant, and the second to thesouth at the West Shore coal terminal. The presentation will review the installation, con�guration,operating, and data quality and control experiences from the �rst several years of operation. ONCis currently in the process of expanding from two to four CODAR stations in the Strait of Georgiaand adding two more stations in the Prince Rupert area. A WavE Radar (WERA) HF-Radarsystem is also being installed near To�no on the West Coast.
11:15Drifter-based validation of the Ocean Networks Canada Strait of Georgia CODARarrayMark Halverson1, Rich Pawlowicz11University of British ColumbiaContact: [email protected] surface current measurements made by high frequency radar often carry a relatively highuncertainty, and this uncertainty has a direct impact on, for example, its use in assimilative models,and on estimated particle trajectories. CODAR supplies uncertainty estimates on both the radialand total velocities, but these estimates include both unresolved oceanographic variability andinstrumental noise, and they are based on assumptions of ocean variability which might not betrue. Relying on other �eld studies to characterize the uncertainty might be of some value, butthe wide range of oceanographic environments in which CODAR operates, and the wide rangeof instrumental con�gurations, probably limits the comparison. Thus, to better understand theuncertainty of the hourly current �elds, we undertook a series of drifter release experiments in theOcean Networks Canada Strait of Georgia CODAR domain. Up to 10 drifters were simultaneouslyreleased in a small selection of radar grid cells over the course of a day. A comparison of theCODAR radial velocities to the radial component of drifter speeds reveals that the overall RMSdi�erence is about 8 cm/s, but with a very low bias of about 1 cm/s. Unresolved spatial andtemporal motions cause about half of the variance, implying the remaining uncertainty must beinstrumental. Finally, we show evidence that some of the instrumental uncertainty arises fromerrors in the direction-�nding algorithm, which are likely caused by irregularities in the antennabeam pattern, although this has yet to be veri�ed with �eld observations.
11:30Hindcasts of surface drifter trajectories using high-frequency radars : skill sensitivityto drifter depth in a highly vertically- sheared environmentCédric Chavanne1, Marion Bandet1, Dany Dumont11UQAR-ISMERContact: [email protected]
Accurate surface drift forecasts are required to assist search-and-rescue operations and oil spillmitigation. Recent studies have demonstrated the bene�t of using surface current observationsfrom high-frequency (HF) radars to improve surface drift forecasts, but the sensitivity of forecast
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 173
Oral Presentations
Thursday June 4 (1030-1200)Session:505
New Approaches to Ocean ObservingFitzsimmons
skill to the depth of the drifting object or substance has not been fully documented. To investigatethis sensitivity, surface drifters were deployed in the Lower St. Lawrence Estuary with droguesat di�erent depths ranging from the surface (no drogue) to 7 m. Three high-frequency radars(two CODAR SeaSondes on the south shore and one WERA on the north shore) measured hourlysurface currents over the area where the drifters were deployed and drifted. In addition, verticalpro�les of currents from 100 m to 10 m depths were obtained from a downward-looking AcousticDoppler Current Pro�ler on a nearby moored surface buoy, along with wind and wave measurements.Hindcasts of surface drifter trajectories are obtained using currents measured by the HF radars,and skill sensitivity to drifter depth is assessed in light of the vertical current shear, wind and waveconditions.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 174
Oral Presentations
Thursday June 4 (1030-1200)Session:501
Mixing in the Open and Coastal OceansGaribaldi A
10:30Rates and mechanisms of turbulent dissipation and mixing in the Southern OceanStephanie Waterman1, Katy Sheen2, Alberto Naveira Garabato2, Kurt Polzin31University of British Columbia2National Oceanography Centre3Woods Hole Oceanographic InstitutionContact: [email protected] mixing in the Southern Ocean plays a vital role in setting the abyssal strati�cation andin determining the response of climate models to anthropogenic forcing. However, few observa-tions of mixing in the Southern Ocean exist, and observations of the mechanisms underlying itsintensity and distribution are scarce. In recent years, a number of experiments have been stagedposing fundamental questions relating to the rates and mechanisms of turbulent mixing in theAntarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), the main current system of the Southern Ocean. Thesecampaigns have made observations of the circulation on a range of scales, and included pioneeringmeasurements of the turbulent dissipation rate. We discuss results from two such experiments,the Southern Ocean Finestructure (SOFine) experiment and the Diapycnal and Isopycnal MixingExperiment in the Southern Ocean (DIMES), both which focused on understanding patterns andprocesses of mixing in Southern Ocean mixing hotspots. We characterize the intensity and spatialdistribution of the observed turbulent mixing rate, and consider underpinning mechanisms in thecontext of the internal wave �eld and the processes governing the waves' generation and evolution.In both experiments, the turbulent mixing rate observed is highly spatially variable. It is high inregions where internal wave energy is high, and strongly related to the strength of bottom currentsand local topographic roughness, thus supporting the hypothesis that abyssal turbulent mixing issourced in the breaking of internal waves generated by ACC-topography interactions. However,the rates of turbulent dissipation and mixing observed are generally found to be lower than thoseanticipated from the observed internal wave energy levels, and local turbulent dissipation appearsto account for only a small proportion of the local energy �ux predicted by lee wave theory. Thesemismatches open new important questions regarding the fate of bottom-generated internal waveenergy.
10:45Mixing in the Canadian Arctic ArchipelagoJody Klymak11University of VictoriaContact: [email protected]
The Canadian Archipelago is a major conduit of Paci�c water and freshwater from the Arctic toDavis Strait and then the Atlantic. However, as this water passes through the Canadian ArcticArchipelago it is mixed in the relatively narrow and shallow passages, and by vigorous tides. Here wepresent exploratory numerical simulations of the mechanisms that drive that mixing using idealizedbathymetry and high resolution models.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 175
Oral Presentations
Thursday June 4 (1030-1200)Session:501
Mixing in the Open and Coastal OceansGaribaldi A
11:00Mixing and dissipation in a regional model of the Salish SeaNancy Soontiens1, Susan Allen11University of British ColumbiaContact: [email protected] discuss the treatment of mixing and dissipation in a numerical model of the Salish Sea, acomplex system of waterways between Vancouver Island and the mainland of British Columbiaand Washington State. The exchange of fresh water from the Salish Sea to the Paci�c Ocean isstrongly modulated by vertical mixing over the sills between the San Juan and Gulf Islands. It isdi�cult to accurately represent vertical mixing in numerical models of this region due to the strongtidal currents and steep bathymetry. In this talk, we explore the relationship between the model'streatment of mixing and dissipation and the model's tidal properties and strati�cation. The M2phase shift between the Strait of Juan de Fuca and the Strait of Georgia is very sensitive to mixingparameters leading to di�culties in accurate reproduction of observed M2 tidal harmonics. Weexplore this issue by mapping regions of high dissipation and vertical mixing at di�erent timesin the tidal cycle. In addition, the e�ect of dissipation on storm surge amplitude is examined bycomparing surge propagation during spring and neap tides. Modelled mixing parameters such asthe vertical eddy di�usivity are compared with observed values where available.
11:15Turbulence in low Froude number strati�ed �owsJody Klymak11University of VictoriaContact: [email protected]
Strati�ed �ow over topography creates internal waves and turbulence. For �nite-height topographywaves with wave speeds less than the advection speed break locally, creating turbulence dissipationand mixing. The strength of this breaking can be estimated a-priori and has been tested withcoarse hydrostatic models (Klymak et. al. 2010a,b). However, there is concern that such modelsdo not yield the appropriate amount of turbulence and mixing, so we test using direct numericalsimulation and large-eddy simulation of strati�ed �ow over isolated topography. We can also testthe mixing e�ciency of turbulence in breaking internal waves, and the relationship between the sizeof density overturns and the amount of turbulence dissipation they produce.
11:30Small scale shear strati�ed turbulent mixing and its inference for the global OceansHesam Salehipour1, W. Richard Peltier11University of TorontoContact: [email protected]
Debate continues concerning the spatial and temporal variability of the e�ciency with which diapy-cnal mixing occurs in the global oceans. In addition, an equally pressing issue to which su�cientattention has not been paid, concerns the strength of the momentum di�usion that is associated withsuch diapycnal di�usion of density. An improved understanding of the small scale turbulent mixing
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 176
Oral Presentations
Thursday June 4 (1030-1200)Session:501
Mixing in the Open and Coastal OceansGaribaldi A
processes is thus required to accurately address these questions. We have recently (Salehipour andPeltier 2014, JFM) proposed an improved formulation for calculating the eddy di�usivity of mo-mentum and have shown that an Osborn-like formulation for diapycnal di�usivity may be derivedas a direct mathematical consequence of the governing equations for any strati�ed Boussinesq �owat high Reynolds number. The latter formulation essentially relaxes the original limiting assump-tions of stationarity and homogeneity in the Osborn formula (Osborn 1980, JPO). Furthermore, byanalyzing an extensive series of Direct Numerical Simulations of shear-induced strati�ed turbulencethat is generated after a Kelvin-Helmholtz wave breaks, we infer an apparently universal behaviourfor the diapycnal di�usivity of strati�ed shear �ows with respect to ε/(νN2) (in which ε denotesturbulent viscous dissipation, ν is kinematic viscosity and N is buoyancy frequency) that is similarto the more idealized numerical studies of Shih et al. (2005, JFM). In this talk we will elaborate onthe resulting mixing properties including its e�ciency as well as the diapycnal di�usivity of massand momentum, obtained from these numerical analysis. Furthermore, to illustrate the results in amore useful global context, we will present the inferred estimates of these mixing properties basedon the most recent turbulent dissipation measurements taken from the global array of Argo �oats(Whalen et al, 2012, 2014, GRL).
11:45Mass transport and mixing by mode-2 internal wavesDavid Deepwell1, Marek Stastna11University of WaterlooContact: [email protected]
Horizontally propagating internal waves are a regular occurrence in the ocean. Their most com-monly observed vertical structure is mode-1, in which isopycnals rise and fall in concert at all depths.However a non-insigni�cant amount are of the second mode, for which isopycnals expand from andcontract toward the centre of the pycnocline. Under the right conditions these waves can formrecirculating cores which e�ciently transport material and mix the pycnocline. Mode-2 waves areeasily formed in the laboratory by releasing a mixed region into an ambient strati�ed region. Usinghigh resolution, three dimensional, direct numerical simulations we describe the e�ciency of mode-2waves for transporting and trapping material under a variety of di�erent initializations. Particularimportance will be placed on the role of changing pycnocline structure and varying density andtracer di�usivities.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 177
Oral Presentations
Thursday June 4 (1030-1200)Session:401
High latitude glacier and ice sheet interaction with the atmosphere and oceanGaribaldi B
10:30Dynamics of glacier calving in a West Greenland tidewater fjordClark Richards1, Fiamma Straneo21RBR Ltd. and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution2Woods Hole Oceanographic InstitutionContact: [email protected]
Rapid mass loss of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has spurred an intense interest in un-derstanding glacial dynamics, with a recent focus on interaction and feedback between marineterminating glaciers and the ocean. Iceberg calving has long been recognized as an important termin the mass �ux from glaciers, however high temporal resolution observations of calving are scarce.Here we present observations from several weeks of data in Sarqardleq fjord (during summer 2012and 2013), focusing on calving events detected by glaciogenic ocean waves and time-lapse pho-tography of the glacier/fjord system. Correlations between calving and environmental variables(tides, circulation, etc) are explored, revealing links between glacier and ocean response in thesystem.
10:45Ocean Circulation and Marine Terminating Glaciers of the Canadian ArcticArchipelago and the Greenland Ice SheetLaura Gillard1, Xianmin Hu2, Paul Myers21University of Alberta2University of Alberta, Earth and Atmospheric SciencesContact: [email protected]
Higher latitudes have experienced a signi�cant change in climate and physical processes withinrecent years. This study focuses on two regions that have experienced rapid change, the CanadianArctic Archipelago and the Greenland Ice Sheet. It has been shown that relatively warm oceanwaters may accelerate melt production of marine terminating glaciers. We explore and classify thepathways for the warmer Atlantic waters that reach the fjords along the coasts of Greenland aswell as in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Additionally, given that the melt of these glaciers isaccelerating, we look at the pathways of the low salinity melt waters from these coastal glaciersand where it is taken up in the surrounding basins. This analysis is carried out using an Arctic andNorth Atlantic con�guration of the NEMO ocean/sea-ice general circulation model run at both 1/4and 1/12 degree resolution. Pathways are determined using the Ariane Lagrangian �oat packageusing both forward and reverse trajectory analysis.
11:00Recent and future evolution of Barnes ice cap (Ba�n Island, Canada)Adrien Gilbert1, Gwenn Flowers21Postdoctoral Fellow Simon Fraser University2Associate Professor and Canada Research Chair in Glaciology Simon Fraser UniversityContact: [email protected]
Barnes ice cap is the last remnant of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, which covered much of North America
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 178
Oral Presentations
Thursday June 4 (1030-1200)Session:401
High latitude glacier and ice sheet interaction with the atmosphere and oceanGaribaldi B
20 000 years ago. Following a period of relative stability over the last 3000 years, recent satellite andair-borne imagery reveal signi�cant thinning of the ice cap that, if sustained, would lead to a lossof two-thirds of its mass by the year 2200. This observation suggests a change of regime linked toon-going climate change in the Arctic. In this study, we combine historical observations (1960-1980)with new satellite and air-borne data (1995-2010) to model the thermal, dynamical and geometricresponse of the ice cap to climate variation. For this purpose, we use a �nite-element full-Stokesthermo-mechanical model with an adaptive mesh, coupled to a model of surface mass-balance tunedto in-situ data. Mass-balance modelling results demonstrate the signi�cance of superimposed iceand internal accumulation at Barnes, and point to a strong north-south balance gradient alongthe ice cap likely associated with regional precipitation patterns. Modelled dynamics highlightthe in�uence of contrasting viscosities between the Pleistocene and Holocene ice, necessitatingan accurate determination of the Pleistocene layer thickness across the ice cap. Comparison ofmodelled and measured elevation changes since 1960 reveals that many sectors of the ice cap aresigni�cantly a�ected by glacier surges and lake-calving. This result points to the important role ofice dynamics in driving changes in ice-cap geometry, and cautions against attribution of measuredsurface-elevation change exclusively to mass- balance processes. With the model tuned to reproducehistorical conditions, we investigate the future evolution of Barnes ice cap and attempt to constrainits future date of disappearance.
11:15Modelling the dynamic response of Belcher Glacier (Devon Island, Nunavut) to sea-sonal surface meltSam Pimentel1, Gwenn Flowers21Trinity Western University2Simon Fraser UniversityContact: [email protected]
Widespread speedup of tidewater-terminating glaciers in Greenland and the Canadian high-Arctichas been observed in recent years, along with signi�cant seasonal variability in glacier �ow rates.These changes have potential contributions from oceanic and atmospheric drivers through: (1)perturbations to the terminus boundary condition as a result of warm water entering the fjords,and (2) increased surface melt, in response to atmospheric warming, reaching the bed and promotingglacier slip. We examine the in�uence of these two processes on Belcher Glacier, a large fast-�owingtidewater outlet of the Devon Island ice cap in the Canadian Arctic. Our study uses a hydrologically-coupled ice-�ow model to estimate glacier �ow changes as a result of loss of sea-ice buttressing andhydrologically- driven seasonal dynamics. Daily runo� from �ve sub-catchments provides seasonalforcing for the model simulations. We use data from two melt seasons and present results thatcontrast the seasonal evolution of the subglacial drainage system and glacier velocity over the twoyears. Model results are compared with surface velocities derived from remote sensing and GPSmeasurements. Sea-ice and tidal e�ects are found to have a minor in�uence on glacier �ow speedin comparison to seasonally-enhanced speed-up as a result of meltwater drainage.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 179
Oral Presentations
Thursday June 4 (1030-1200)Session:401
High latitude glacier and ice sheet interaction with the atmosphere and oceanGaribaldi B
11:30Surface roughness and other controls on the albedo of ice sheetsL. Mac Cathles11University of MichiganContact: [email protected] sheets have relatively smooth surfaces in regions where there is net accumulation, but in theablation zone, where more snow and ice melts each year than falls as snow, there are signi�canttopographic features. These features include canyons, crevasses, depressions and mounds, some ofwhich �ll with water during the melt season to produce supraglacial lakes, ponds and rivers. Boththe surface topography and the surface conditions (i.e water, snow, or ice) of an ice sheet a�ect theexchange of energy between the atmosphere and an ice sheet, and can locally reduce the albedo ofthe surface by 20% to 50%. A potential feedback exists where absorbed energy on the surface causesmelting of the surface in such a way to further reduce the surface albedo. This presentation exploresboth the mechanisms and e�ects of this feedback on a range of ice/snow covered surfaces.
11:45A comparison of surface energy balance and degree day models for mass balance ofArctic ice�elds and the Greenland Ice SheetShawn Marshall1, Marjorie Perroud11University of CalgaryContact: [email protected]
Glaciological models of the Greenland Ice Sheet typically use simpli�ed melt physics, such as positivedegree day models, due to the less intensive meteorological data requirements. However, thesemethods are missing some important potential feedbacks to climate and ice sheet variability, suchas albedo changes or the correct sensitivity to changes in cloud conditions. A complete surfaceenergy balance has recently become possible due to improved high-resolution climate models andreanalyses, although it is still di�cult to use such models outside of the time window of historicalclimate records. Paleoclimate and future climate simulations for glaciers and ice sheets typicallyrequire climate forcing from coarser-resolution models, with anticipated degradation in model skill.In this presentation I examine the impact of di�erent approaches to Arctic ice�eld melt modellingon the simulated mass balance. Classical degree day models are compared with reanalysis andGCM-driven energy and mass balance scenarios for Arctic Canada and Greenland for the historicalperiod, 1948-2014. Additional e�ects are explored for simulation of ice sheet change and associatedsea level rise, in particular a shift in model resolution/downscaled climatology from reanalysis- toGCM-driven climate forcing and the e�ects of a 'cold start' vs. glacial spinup on modelled 'secular'ice sheet changes in future forecasts. Together, these model experiments allow an examination ofsome of the impacts of numerical modelling strategy on near-term (e.g. 21st century) projectionson ice sheet changes and associated sea level rise.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 180
Oral Presentations
Thursday June 4 (1030-1200)Session:20202
Observations IIHarmony
10:30The TEMPO geostationary air quality mission and what it means for CanadaChris McLinden1, Kelly Chance2, Randall Martin3, Jean DeGrandpré1, Richard Menard1, YvesRochon11Environment Canada2Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics3Dalhousie University, Department of Physics and Atmospheric ScienceContact: [email protected]
TEMPO (Tropospheric Emissions: Measurement of Pollution), selected by NASA as the �rst EarthVenture Instrument and scheduled for launch in 2019, will measure atmospheric pollution overgreater North America from space using ultraviolet and visible spectroscopy. Its hourly repeatcycle and high spatial resolution represent a game-changer in the utility of space-based instrumentsfor air pollution monitoring. Capturing the diurnal variation of key pollutants (ozone, nitrogen andsulphur dioxide, proxies for volatile organic compounds, aerosols, cloud, UV radiation) at the sub-urban scale will lead to signi�cant improvement in monitoring of population exposure, air qualityforecasting, emission inventories, and enabling of e�ective emission-control strategies. For Canada,TEMPO represents a tremendous opportunity to provide over 99% of its population with an im-proved air quality health index. Maximizing this bene�t, however, will mean overcoming challengesmore pertinent to Canada than other nations. One important example of this is developing animproved methodology to disentangle near-surface nitrogen dioxide from what resides in the strato-sphere. With this in mind, Environment Canada is developing a chemical data assimilation systemwhich would use TEMPO (together with available surface and stratospheric pro�le measurements)to provide near real time chemical analyses to improve its operational air quality forecasting system.A second such challenge is developing more accurate algorithms in the presence of snow. This pre-sentation will provide an introduction to the TEMPO mission, discuss how it can bene�t Canada,and elaborate on the some challenges and how they might be met.
10:45Carbon Monoxide Events and Trends over 15 Years from the MOPITT Space Instru-mentJames Drummond1, John Gille2, Merritt Deeter2, Florian Nichitiu3, Jiansheng Zou3, Carmen Lee11Dalhousie University2National Center for Atmospheric Research3University of TorontoContact: [email protected]
On 18th December 1999 the Terra platform was launched from the Vandenberg Air Force basecarrying the Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument. MOPITThas now completed more than years of operation measuring carbon monoxide (CO) over the planetand it is still working! The 15 year continuous data series that MOPITT has provided (so far)a�ords a great opportunity to look at longer-term changes over the planet. However a time seriesthis long was not part of the design criteria of the instrument and therefore care must be takento ensure that trends are not artifacts. Fortunately, the instrument has been more stable than
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 181
Oral Presentations
Thursday June 4 (1030-1200)Session:20202
Observations IIHarmony
originally predicted and care has been taken throughout the mission to ensure that the data areproperly validated. The result is a well-characterised 15 year time record that can now be minedfor a variety of phenomena charting decadal changes (or stability) in carbon monoxide and lookingat the frequency of events that often drive anomalies in the carbon monoxide distribution. A globaltrend of decreasing carbon monoxide has been observed, but other more localised phenomena havealso been observed - including some over Canada - caused by a mix of changes in sources, transportand sinks. This paper will consider some of these phenomena by way of case studies and statistics.MOPITT was provided to the Terra spacecraft by the Canadian Space Agency and was built byCOMDEV of Cambridge, Ontario. Data processing is performed by the MOPITT team at theNational Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO. Instrument control is by the team at theUniversity of Toronto.
11:00Re-investigation of a long term infrared spectral data set for ozone recorded at 80o NPierre Fogal1, James Drummond2, Richard Mittermeier31University of Toronto2Dalhousie University3Environment CanadaContact: [email protected]
From 1994 to 2008, a Bomem DA-8 high resolution Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) recordedhigh-resolution absorption spectra of the atmosphere at one of the sites of what is today called thePolar Environment Atmospheric Research Laboratory (PEARL) located at approximately 80N,86W near the Environment Canada (EC)Eureka Weather station on Ellesmere Island. The in-strument was operated by EC and the Meteorological Reseach Institute (MRI) of Japan on anepisodic bases during either the spring or fall of each year. We are re-analyzing the spring datasets using current software techniques and molecular parameters that are both much improved fromthose available at the time the data set was recorded. In particular, we have derived ozone totalcolumns and partial columns and investigated the same for the symmetric and asymmetric ozoneisotopomers 686O3 and 668O3 as well as related molecules. This instrument was also a part of theNetwork for Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) and was replaced in 2008 bythe Canadian Network for Detection of Atmospheric Change (CANDAC) Bruker IFS125HR. Thetwo instruments were operated concurrently for parts of two years before the DA-8 was removedand the IFS125HR became the instrument of record. We compare the total column amounts de-rived from both spectral data-sets during the overlap period to ensure that the two data-sets areequivalent during that time and the entire dataset can be considered as quasi-continuous. Thisproject is supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 182
Oral Presentations
Thursday June 4 (1030-1200)Session:20202
Observations IIHarmony
11:15Cross-validation of methane retrievals from ACE-FTS, GOSAT, and ground-basedsolar absorption measurements, at Eureka, Nunavut.Gerrit Holl1, Kaley A. Walker2, Stephanie Conway1, Naoko Saitoh3, Chris Boone4, KimberlyStrong1, James Drummond51Department of Physics, University of Toronto2Department of Physics, University of Toronto and Department of Chemistry, University of Water-loo Canada3Center for Environmental Remote Sensing, Chiba University4Department of Chemistry, University of Waterloo5Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie UniversityContact: [email protected]
We present cross-validation of remote sensing observations of methane pro�les at Eureka, Nunavut(80oN, 86oW). Methane is the third most important greenhouse gas on Earth, and second only tocarbon dioxide in its contribution to anthropogenic global warming. Accurate and precise obser-vations of methane are essential to understand quantitatively its role in the climate system and inglobal change. The Arctic is a particular region of concern, as melting permafrost and disappearingsea ice might lead to accelerated release of methane into the atmosphere. Pan-Arctic observationsrequire spaceborne instruments, in particular in remote regions where surface measurements aresparse and expensive to carry out. Remote sensing of methane is an underconstrained problem,and speci�c validation under Arctic circumstances is required. Here, we show a cross-validationbetween two spaceborne instruments and ground-based measurements, all Fourier Transform Spec-trometers (FTSs). We consider the Canadian SCISAT ACE-FTS, a solar occultation spectrometeroperating since 2004, and the Japanese GOSAT TANSO-FTS, a nadir-pointing FTS operating atsolar and terrestrial infrared wavelengths, since 2009. The ground-based instrument is a BrukerFourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectrometer, measuring mid-infrared solar absorption spectraat the Polar Environmental and Atmospheric Research Laboratory (PEARL) Ridge Lab at Eureka,Nunavut (80oN, 86oW, 610m ASL) since 2006. Measurements are collocated considering temporal,spatial, and geophysical criteria and regridded to a common vertical grid. We perform smoothingon the higher-resolution instrument results to account for di�erent vertical resolutions. Based onerror estimates for each retrieval, we calculate the random error covariance matrix for the compar-ison ensemble. Then, pro�les and partial columns of di�erences for each pair of instruments areexamined. Any bias between instruments, or any accuracy that is worse than expected, needs tobe understood prior to using the data. The results of the study will serve as a guideline on howto use the vertically resolved methane products from ACE and GOSAT within the High Arcticregion.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 183
Oral Presentations
Thursday June 4 (1030-1200)Session:20202
Observations IIHarmony
11:30Modeling of TOA radiance measured by CERES over the East Antarctic PlateauAlexander Radkevich1, Seiji Kato21Science Systems and Applications, Inc.2NASA Langley Research CenterContact: [email protected]
CERES (Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System) is a satellite borne remote sensing in-strument measuring solar- re�ected and Earth-emitted radiation at the TOA level. CERES isdesigned to monitor the Earth's radiation budget. In order to observe TOA budget, instrumentmeasured radiances are converted into upwelling �uxes using the Angular distribution Models. Inthis work we evaluate TOA radiance over permanent snow under clear sky conditions in the EastAntarctic Plateau to test consistency between modeled and observed radiances. We revisiting thisissue reported by Hudson et al 2010 with another radiative transfer model and using instantaneousatmospheric pro�les. That paper reported some overestimation of TOA albedo by their model incomparison with CERES estimations. The comparison in that paper involves some uncertaintiesincluding errors in the modeled surface albedo and atmospheric model. We use radiative transfermodel based on DISORT coupled with correlated-k (Kato et al 1999). We used the same approachfor the lower boundary condition as in Hudson et al 2010 with modi�cation related to modelingsurface albedo (more realistic diameters of ice spheres, Mie phase function instead of Henyey -Greenstein one). The model is �exible to use a supplied atmospheric pro�le. In this work wecreate atmospheric models for the time and position of the individual observations from GEOS-4reanalysis data. A comparison between modeling and actual observations was performed for dataacquired by the CERES sensors onboard EOS TERRA (FM-1 sensor) and AQUA (FM-4), andNPP (FM-5). Some overestimation of TOA radiance by the model was discovered. The latestedition 4 of CERES Single Satellite Footprint data for FM-1, -4 appeared to be 4.6% darker thanthe model while FM-5 sensor is ≈3.6% darker. There is great correlation between modeled andobserved radiance: coe�cient of determination R2 > 0.999 for all sets of data.
11:45Geodetic Applications of Ray-tracing through the neutral-atmosphereMarcelo Santos1, Felipe Nievinski11University of New BrunswickContact: [email protected] through the neutral-atmosphere is an important task to retrieve meteorological pa-rameters from a numerical model. There are several ways of doing it, which implies di�erentrepresentations of the neutral-atmosphere, as well as di�erent ways to integrate through the path.We have developed a ray-tracer that involves alternative models for the ray-path and the atmo-spheric structure involved in the operation. The ray-tracer is currently in continuous use in theevaluation of zenith delay and one of the Marini coe�cients of the Vienna Mapping Functions,generated daily at UNB as a service towards GGOS. This paper overviews the main characteristicsof the UNB Ray-Tracer and discusses applications when dealing with integration through numericalweather models for neutral-atmospheric delay modelling. The paper also discusses other uses of
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 184
Oral Presentations
Thursday June 4 (1030-1200)Session:20202
Observations IIHarmony
ray-tracing in geodesy.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 185
Oral Presentations
Thursday June 4 (1030-1200)Session:205
Operational ForecastingWedgemont
10:30The Future of the Weather EnterpriseJim Abraham1, Harinder Ahluwalia2, Jack Hayes31formerly Environment Canada2President and Chief Executive O�cer, Info-Electronics Systems Inc, President, Canadian Meteo-rological and Oceanographic Society3Former Assistant Administrator for Weather Services, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin-istrationContact: [email protected]
The WMOWorld Weather Open Science Conference (WWOSC-2014) was held in Montreal, Canadain August 2014. This Conference brought together over 1000 attendees fro over 70 countries.With the impressive advances in the atmospheric sciences, an important focus was to discuss thesteps needed to ensure the weather sensitive stakeholder community bene�ts from weather services.The conference also included a Special Session on The Future of the Weather Enterprise, aimedat advancing discussion on the collaboration between the private, public and academic sectors.Three separate panels were conducted - the �rst two exploring the important issues and problemsrelated to the provision of weather services and the infrastructure in support of that. The �nalpanel was oriented towards �nding solutions through e�ective collaboration. Panellists includedrecognized leaders from the global weather community, including executives from the government,academic and private sectors, as well as leaders from non-government agencies, such as scienti�csocieties. This Special Panel on the Future of the Weather Enterprise was a catalyst for the WMOand its member countries to demonstrate leadership by working together to maximize societalbene�ts. Already, follow-up sessions were included in this year's Annual Meeting of the AmericanMeteorological Society and the WMO Congress. This presentation will provide a summary of someof the key outcomes of WWOSC, and in particular several recommendations arising from the SpecialPanel.
10:45The NOAA Arctic Test BedRenee Tatusko11NOAA National Weather ServiceContact: [email protected]
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) test beds, such as the Joint Hur-ricane Test Bed (Miami, FL) and the Hazardous Weather Test Bed (Norman, OK) have provento be highly e�ective in meeting both the unique and the pressing science and service challengesfor the National Weather Service (NWS). NWS Alaska Region is establishing the NOAA ArcticTest Bed to lead the process for signi�cant enhancements to our operational forecast and decisionsupport capabilities in Alaska to address the emerging requirements of the Arctic. Historically, thecomplexity of forecast operations and the inherent challenges in Alaska have not been addressedwell by the R&D programs and projects that support the Continental U.S. (CONUS) regions ofthe NWS. In addition, there are unique science, technology, and support challenges (e.g., sea iceforecasts and arctic drilling prospects) and international opportunities (bilateral agreements and
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 186
Oral Presentations
Thursday June 4 (1030-1200)Session:205
Operational ForecastingWedgemont
World Meteorological Organization research projects) that would best be worked through Alaskaoperations. A dedicated test bed will provide a mechanism to transfer technology, research results,and observational advances into operations in a timely and e�ective manner in support of the NWSWeather Ready Nation goals and to enhance decision support services in Alaska. A NOAA ArcticTest Bed will provide a crucial nexus for ensuring NOAA's developers understand Alaska's require-ments that are often cross disciplinary (atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and hydrologic) in order toimprove NOAA's responsiveness to its Arctic-related science and service priorities among the NWSand NOAA's research laboratories. The test bed will also enable better leveraging of other researchinitiatives and data sources external to NOAA, including academia, other government agencies,and the private sector, which are particular to the polar region (e.g., the WMO Polar PredictionProject). A review of initial projects and future capabilities will be presented.
11:00Communicating and forecast uncertainty during the 2014 Lake Louise FIS Alpine SkiWorld Cup.Uwe Gramann11RWDIContact: [email protected]
Operational forecast support for the Lake Louise FIS Alpine Ski World Cup has been provided forseveral years. Using the 2014 event as an example, the presentation will focus on regional forecastingchallenges, the day to day on-site forecast support and how RWDI has approached communicationand uncertainties with multiple decision makers under occasionally stressful conditions. This par-ticular event poses unique challenges each year due to its remote location with few representativeobservations, very high surrounding terrain and associated modeling shortcomings. Additionally,the nature of the event is asking for 24/7 on location support and ad hoc minute by minute brief-ings that further compound these challenges. The author takes a critical look at his method ofcommunication in the hope of stimulating discussions about improving decision support for clients'risk assessments.
11:15Access forecast uncertainties from a multi-model post-processing systemNan Miao1, Iain Russell11Pelmorex Media Inc.Contact: [email protected]
An operational multi-model post-processing system is developed at The Weather Network to auto-matically calibrate Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models using observations. Three statis-tical calibration methods are applied to a collection of NWP models that vary in spatial coverageand resolution. These bias-corrected derivatives along with raw NWP model outputs are blendedautomatically based on historical model performance in order to drive an optimum blended solu-tion. Results show signi�cant improvements in forecast accuracy throughout the entire sixteen-dayforecast period. Despite the increasing accuracy of weather forecasts, there is always an elementof uncertainty in all predictions. E�ective communication of uncertainty helps people better un-
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 187
Oral Presentations
Thursday June 4 (1030-1200)Session:205
Operational ForecastingWedgemont
derstand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions. Thispostprocessing system is built in a way that it can also be seen as a multi-model and time-lagensemble system, which provides a means to estimate the uncertainties in the forecast. Forecastuncertainty products derived from this post-processing system will be presented in this talk.
11:30Veri�cation of precipitation start/stop times derived from probabilistic nowcastingMajid Fekri1, Iain Russell11Pelmorex Media Inc.Contact: [email protected]
The Nowcasting system at The Weather Network derives the probabilistic Precipitation Start Stop(PSS) times within a three hour window for thousands of locations in Canada. So far, the perfor-mance of this method has only been grasped at arbitrary locations and for limited periods of time.We designed a Nowcasting Veri�cation System (NVS) to record, verify and measure performance ofPSS for all locations. The NVS prototype was designed and developed as a research tool to providea basis for measurement and comparison of PSS output. Precipitation Nowcasting di�ers from thehourly forecasts both in terms of its higher temporal frequency and its higher spatial resolution.Specially, the PSS times depend on 10 minute radar composite images with 1 km resolution on acontinental grid. In veri�cation of SSP we have been dealing with three main themes: 1) Veri�cationbasis: Recording all nowcasting entries for thousands of locations at every 10 minute interval willmake storage, analysis and retrieval of data more di�cult over a long period of time. Also, the highspatial and temporal resolution of issued forecasts demands a matching observation source to verifyagainst. We use real time radar observations as the baseline for veri�cation. 2) Scoring method:The usual spatial scoring of precipitation forecast based on contingency tables takes a referencespace of forecast and observation and divides each of them into precipitating and non-precipitatingregions and retrieves the relative coverages as hit, miss, false alarm and correct negative regions.This method was not directly applicable to SSP point-based forecasts. 3) Timing errors: The PSSprovides timing of precipitation events to users and customers, therefore, it is desired to estimateand express uncertainties in the units of time. This requires a new approaches towards measuringerrors of precipitation nowcast. The primary results and statistics of several months of data arepresented and discussed at National scale, and more details are provided for a selected numberof most populated cities in Canada. Skill of Start/Stop nowcasts are measured with contingencymethod and traditional scores and uncertainties are expressed in terms of average timing errors.The results indicate signi�cant trends that provide a �rst insight into the overall performance ofPSS. The NVS provides constant quality control and a basis for monitoring further improvementsto the precipitation nowcasting techniques.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 188
Oral Presentations
Thursday June 4 (1030-1200)Session:205
Operational ForecastingWedgemont
11:45A Heavy Precipitation Event as Observed by King City's Upgraded Dual-PolarizationC-Band RadarDavid Hudak1, Vlado Stojanovic1, Herb Winston21Environment Canada2Vaisala IncContact: [email protected] Canada's, Science and Technology Branch operates a C-band Dual-Polarization weatherradar at King City, Ontario. This dual purpose radar supports atmospheric research and plays avital role in EC's operational national radar monitoring program. During the winter of 2013, theKing City radar underwent an upgrade that was designed around Vaisala's RVP900 digital signalprocessor. The RVP900 upgrade o�ers EC signi�cantly more processing capability than its prede-cessor and provides an expanded R&D platform upon which to implement, develop and validateenhanced radar-derived solutions. An additional enhancement at King City is implementation ofan Optical Rotary Joint that transfers the In-phase and Quadrature (I,Q) signals from the proces-sor located on the antenna to EC's research o�ces. This enables EC engineers and scientists toparallel process, in real-time, di�erent radar solutions and allows EC to more readily compare andassess di�erent algorithms' implementations such as KDP, the e�ects of di�erent clutter �ltering,and testing and adjusting interference �lters; while simultaneously allowing the King City radar toful�ll its mission of supporting the operational radar network. A signi�cant advantage of the KingCity radar upgrade is the ability to perform attenuation correction; allowing the recovery of signalreturns that would otherwise be lost to attenuation during periods of heavy precipitation. Thispresentation will show comparisons between Hydroclass, and EC's equivalent Iparca attenuationcorrection and classi�cation software that occurred near Toronto during a convective event in July2013.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 189
Poster Presentations
Monday June 1 (1530-1700)Session:1001
PostersGrand Foyer and Ballrooms B and C
15:30Monitoring early-�ood season intraseasonal oscillations and persistent heavy rainfallin South ChinaJianyun Gao1, Hai Lin2, LiJun You1, Si Chen11Fujian Climate Center, CMA2Atmospheric Numerical Weather Prediction Research, Environment CanadaContact: [email protected]
Both the 10-20-day and 20-70-day oscillations play important roles in the rainfall variability dur-ing the early-�ood season (April to June) in South China. In this study, three daily real-timeintraseasonal oscillation (ISO) indices are compared in terms of representing the early-�ood season20-70-day ISO in South China. A new bivariate boreal summer ISO index is de�ned to describethe variability of 10-20 days in the East Asia - western North Paci�c (EAWNP) region. Compositeanalysis shows that the northward propagation of the EAWNP ISO, both the 10-20-day and 20-70-day signals, has a crucial role in the anomalous rainfall in South China. According to di�erentphase combinations of the 10-20-day and 20-70-day EAWNP ISO, nine states are de�ned rangingfrom those favorable to those unfavorable to heavy rainfall in South China. It is found that com-bining the ISO of both frequency bands can well describe the anomalous rainfall in South China.Thus it can be used to monitor the early-�ood season ISO and persistent heavy rainfall in SouthChina.
15:30Initial results of simulating the hub-height wind speed from a multi-PBL scheme,multi-initial conditions source WRF ensemble in complex terrainDavid Siuta1, Roland Stull11University of British ColumbiaContact: [email protected] 01 June 2014, the University of British Columbia has been evaluating the choice of planetaryboundary layer (PBL) physical parameterization scheme used within their operational WRF models.The results presented here are only for a subset of the one- year long extensive study ending 31 May2015. Eight PBL schemes have been used in daily simulations with two initial condition sources(the 32-km NAM and 0.5 degree GFS) to comprehensively evaluate the best choice of PBL schemeselection for hub-height wind forecasts at four wind farms in British Columbia. Forecast veri�cationstatistics for each PBL scheme and initial condition source will be shown. In addition, a new type ofensemble forecast made by putting together the WRF forecasts from each PBL scheme and initialcondition source (48 members total) is evaluated.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 190
Poster Presentations
Monday June 1 (1530-1700)Session:1001
PostersGrand Foyer and Ballrooms B and C
15:30Sedimentation for 2-moments microphysics models across all scales: How to make itfast, interactive, and avoid excessive size sortingvFrederick Chosson1, Man Kong Yau2, Yves Bouteloup31McGill University2McGill University, Dpt. Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences3Meteo-FranceContact: [email protected]
We present a sedimentation scheme for 2-moments microphysical models that mimic Eulerian orLagrangian classical approaches with three major advantages. First, it is much faster and numer-ically e�cient than classical Eulerian/Lagrangian methods and it is easy to implement. Second,it allows the microphysical processes to take into account the sedimenting particles during sedi-mentation; and vice versa. So that sedimentation and microphysical processes are computed atthe same time. Third, it manages the sedimenting �uxes of the two moments together in order toavoid excessive size sorting, accordingly to a minimum and a maximum mean mass particle sizeobservable in nature. This characteristic also allows much longer time step for the microphysicsmodel with a satisfying precision, and total conservation of both mass and number of hydrometeorparticles, paving the way toward the use of 2-moments microphysics schemes within operationalnumerical weather prediction (NWP) at global scale and climate models.
15:30Status of Satellite-derived Snow Water Equivalent Information over Canada - Sup-porting Research and Operational ApplicationsAnne Walker1, Chris Derksen1, Arvids Silis11Environment CanadaContact: [email protected]
The Climate Research Division (CRD) of Environment Canada has a long-standing research pro-gram focussed on the development of methods to retrieve snow cover information from passive mi-crowave satellite data for Canadian regions. Algorithms that derive snow water equivalent (SWE)have been developed by CRD and validated for a number of landscape regions including prairie, bo-real forest, taiga and tundra. The SWE algorithms are used with satellite data to generate regionalsnow cover products that are being used to support a number of research and operational applica-tions. Maps depicting SWE distribution over areas in western and northern Canada are producedon a regular basis each winter (e.g. weekly) using SSM/I data accessed in near real-time. Thesemaps are distributed to a variety of users such as national and provincial water resource agen-cies, agricultural agencies, hydropower companies, and meteorological forecast o�ces to supporttheir operational activities. The distribution of SWE maps by e-mail and the internet (CanadianCryosphere Information Network - CCIN) has widened the range of applications for the products.This presentation will provide an overview of the current status of satellite-based SWE productsover western Canada and the related challenges and opportunities for extending the products toother regions in Canada. Examples of new SWE products that are being generated internationallywith passive microwave satellite data will be presented with descriptions of the various research and
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 191
Poster Presentations
Monday June 1 (1530-1700)Session:1001
PostersGrand Foyer and Ballrooms B and C
operational applications for which they are being used. A perspective on needs and future oppor-tunities to enhance SWE retrieval capabilities with new satellite missions will be provided.
15:30Attribution of Hydroclimatic Changes in Western Canada to Human In�uenceMohammad Reza Naja�1, Francis Zwiers1, Sanjiv Kumar1, Nathan Gillett21PCIC and University of Victoria2CCCma and Environment CanadaContact: [email protected] studies have attributed observed global and regional temperature changes to anthropogenicforcing factors, and several studies have now also detected human in�uence on precipitation, at-mospheric water vapor content and ocean surface salinity at the global scale, indicating a humanin�uence on the global hydrological cycle. In contrast, very few studies have considered the causesof changes in indicators relevant to regional surface hydrology. In this study the variations of severalhydroclimatic indices are assessed over four basins in western Canada to determine whether humanin�uence has a�ected their evolution over the period 1950-2005. The hydroclimatic indicators arede�ned based on precipitation, temperature, snow water equivalent and runo�. We use ensemblesof 40 naturally forced (solar and volcanic) and all forced (anthropogenic plus natural forcing com-bined) climate model simulations from 9 global climate models participating in the Coupled ModelIntercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), along with ≈5000 years of preindustrial simulations.The climate simulations are downscaled to 1/16o degree resolution grid cells using the bias correc-tion and spatial disaggregation (BCSD) method, and then used to drive the Variable In�ltrationCapacity (VIC) hydrology model to obtain ensembles of forced and control climate variations insnow water equivalent (SWE) and runo� in the Fraser, Peace, upper Columbia and Campbell Riverbasins of British Columbia for the period 1950-2005. VIC is also driven by observed daily maxi-mum and minimum temperature as well as precipitation and wind speed to obtain observationallyconstrained SWE and runo� for this period. Analyses show that the minimum temperature hasan increasing trend over western Canada while the center of timing, normalized summer �ow andnormalized snow water equivalent show decreasing trends. A preliminary detection and attributionanalysis suggests that some indicators, in particular Tmin and SWE, have been a�ected by humaninduced climate change.
15:30Warming of West Antarctica in austral spring linked to dramatic stratospheric changesJulien Nicolas1, David Bromwich1, Keith Hines11The Ohio State UniversityContact: [email protected] rapid warming of West Antarctica has been one of the main features of climate change in highsouthern latitudes in recent decades and has been most prominent in austral winter (JJA) andspring (SON). Thus far, investigations of the phenomenon have emphasized the role of atmosphericteleconnections originating from the Tropics in JJA, but have had less success in explaining thewarming in SON. The latter is the subject of our investigation, which relies mainly on the ERA-Interim Reanalysis. More speci�cally, we narrow our focus to the month of September for two
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 192
Poster Presentations
Monday June 1 (1530-1700)Session:1001
PostersGrand Foyer and Ballrooms B and C
reasons: First, September is characterized by the largest temperature trend in central West Antarc-tica since 1957. Second, atmospheric circulation changes (lower pressures/geopotential heights)in SON o� the coast of West Antarctica since 1979 largely re�ect those from September. Thesecirculation changes have been previously identi�ed as the main mechanism responsible for steeringwarm air toward West Antarctica and causing the observed warming. We �nd that the pattern oflower pressures/heights actually extends from sea level through the mid-stratosphere, a feature notseen in other months in the same region. We establish a link between these circulation changes anda shift in the position of the stratospheric polar-night jet. This shift can in turn be explained by thedramatic warming of the Antarctic stratosphere since 1979 in the 90E-180 quadrant, a phenomenonthat previous studies have attributed to the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation andthe associated increased planetary wave activity.
15:30The NOAA Sea Ice Earth System Prediction Capability Project - Processes ImpactingSea-Ice Movement and Autumn Freeze-UpJanet Intrieri1, Ola Persson2, Amy Solomon2, Mimi Hughes2, Andrey Grachev21NOAA2CIRESContact: [email protected]
The National Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) is a collaboration project betweenNOAA, U.S. Navy, U.S. Air Force, Dept. of Energy (DOE), NASA, and the NSF. The NationalESPC's goal is to improve coupled model predictions on the spectrum of timescales from hoursthrough to seasonal, annual and decadal time periods. Four focus topics have been establishedto demonstrate progress in speci�c needed areas including sea ice prediction. This ESPC seaice demonstration project assesses how the autumn sea-ice evolution interacts with physical pro-cesses including atmospheric forcing of sea-ice movement through stress and stress deformation;atmospheric forcing of sea-ice melt and formation through energy �uxes; atmospheric forcing ofthe newly ice-free ocean through wave formation, solar radiation penetration and vertical mixing;ocean forcing of sea-ice through bottom heat �ux and wave penetration; and ocean forcing of theatmosphere through new regions of seasonal heat release. Many of these interactions involve emerg-ing complex processes that �rst need to be understood and then incorporated into forecast modelsin order to realize the goal of useful sea ice forecasting. This poster will highlight observationscollected in previous Arctic �eld programs, as well as describe upcoming measurement campaigns,to better understand these interactions. The focus of our analysis is on understanding the short-term (0-20 day) ice-�oe movement, the autumn freeze-up processes in the near-ice open water andthe marginal ice zone (MIZ), the role of ocean waves in both the northward summer retreat andautumn advance of the sea-ice, and the role of storms in modulating the stress, heat �uxes, wavesand mixing processes that impact the sea-ice evolution. A variety of analyses will be presented thatquantify these interactions and assess their impacts on sea-ice evolution and validation of existingprocesses in models.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 193
Poster Presentations
Monday June 1 (1530-1700)Session:1001
PostersGrand Foyer and Ballrooms B and C
15:30Modelling recent and future sea ice changes in ArcticFernanda Casagrande1, Paulo Nobre1, Ronald Souza11National Institute for Space ResearchContact: [email protected]
Sea ice is an important component of the global climate system acting both as an indicator ofclimate change as an ampli�er. Several authors indicate that sea ice cover is more general indicatorfor climate change than are temperatures trends alone because changes in the sea ice depends onintegrated changes on many di�erent climate variables such as oceanic heat transport, temperatureand winds. Polar sea ice has undergone marked changes during the last decades, Arctic expe-rience a tragic decrease in sea ice extent, whereas Antarctica shows an increase (at a rate not aspronounced as the decrease in Arctic sea ice). We examine the recent (1979-2014) and future (2011-2100) characteristics of the summer Arctic and winter Antarctic sea ice cover based on BrazilianEarth System Model (BESM) results and 10 Earth System and general circulation models fromthe Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5). BESM is a recent Earth SystemModel developed by Brazilian researchers, also contributor in CMIP5.Our results show that mostof the models were able to represent the seasonal cycle in the Arctic and Antarctica and also wereable to predict the record decline on Arctic sea ice thickness and extent in 2007 and 2012. Thelong-term trends (1980-2100) suggest that thickness and extent sea ice in the Arctic ocean willcontinue retreating, this is primarily becouse the Temperature in the Arctic has increased at twicethe rate as the rest of the globe. To Antarctic sea ice, many of the models have show markedlydi�ers when compared with satellite data, especially regarding the trend increase observed in lastdecade.
15:30On the relationship between North Atlantic baroclinic growth rate regimes and surfacecyclogenesisBryn Ronalds1, John Gyakum1, Eyad H. Atallah11Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill UniversityContact: [email protected]
Baroclinic instability is the fundamental theory explaining midlatitude weather systems, particu-larly cyclogenesis, as discussed by Hoskins and Valdes in their 1990 work on storm-tracks. Theyincluded measurements of dry baroclinic growth rates in their analysis, though they theorized thatmoist baroclinic growth rates (sm) might provide a more appropriate measure. We incorporate thismetric to examine the relationship between large areal extent of high sm and surface cyclogenesisin the North Atlantic. This areal extent is calculated over the North Atlantic basin (25-60N and0-80W) and over the vertical depth of 850-600hPa, using the National Centers for EnvironmentalPrediction Reanalysis 1 for 1950-2013. The time series consists of standardized anomalies, obtainedfrom removing a single, smoothed climatology spanning the entire 64-year period from the smootheddaily mean values. Concentrating solely on the cold season months (DJFM), we �nd 101 events withstandardized anomalies greater than two. Most events last one day, with a maximum length of 10days. Cyclone data are provided by the National Snow and Ice Data Center for the years 1958-2008.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 194
Poster Presentations
Monday June 1 (1530-1700)Session:1001
PostersGrand Foyer and Ballrooms B and C
Each of the extreme DJFM sm areal coverage events within this time period are lag-correlated withboth cyclone numbers and cyclone deepening rates in the basin on each day. The DJFM eventslasting longer than 3 consecutive days (n=8) are characterized by above average occurrences ofexplosive cyclogenesis near the end of the events. Each event occurred during periods characterizedby anomalously few cyclones, below average minimum pressures, and anomalously high frequenciesof explosive cyclogeneses.
15:30Spatial-Temporal Variability of Arctic Sea Ice in the Canadian Beaufort Sea as Mea-sured with a Dense Array of Upward Looking Sonar InstrumentsDavid Fissel1, Ed Ross1, John Marko1, Dawn Sadowy1, Louis Sadova11ASL Environmental Sciences Inc.Contact: d�[email protected]
Upward looking sonar (ULS) instruments operating from subsurface moorings provide more accu-rate measurements of sea ice thickness (±0.1 m) and deformation and sea ice velocities throughcontinuous data collection of ice drafts and ice velocities. Analyses of ULS-derived observationsof ice drafts, ice deformation parameters and ice velocities were obtained from an extensive arrayof 7-8 ULS moorings operated in water depths ranging from 73 to 1010 m in the outer shelf andcontinental slope region of the Canadian Beaufort Sea from July 2009 to September 2011. Thedistance separation between individual pairs of mooring ranged from 4 km to more than 80 km.From these very extensive sea ice data sets, the spatial di�erences in sea ice properties are presentedover daily and monthly time scales. The analysis results reveal considerable spatial di�erences inice properties. Ice speeds have a large seasonal variation with the largest speeds in summer/fall andlowest in winter. Ice speeds are generally larger in the more o�shore mooring sites and somewhatreduced in the shallower inner slope and outer shelf sites. Episodic occurrences of no-motion eventsduring winter are more frequent in the shallower inner-slope/outer shelf area than in the deepero�shore waters and are more frequent in the east vs. the west. The ice drafts tend to be larger by0.1 - 0.2 m in the shallower waters of the inner slope and shelf edge by comparison to the deepermid- and outer slope areas. Occurrences of major deformation of sea ice is highly episodic. Highdeformation events occur nearly simultaneously at all sites in winter and spring. The number oflarge ice keels present during episodes appears to vary considerably from the west to the east. Moredeformation occurs at the shallower locations than for the deeper locations.
15:30Vancouver Island School-Based Weather Station NetworkEdward Wiebe1, Andrew Weaver11University of VictoriaContact: [email protected]
The Vancouver Island School-Based Weather Station network (VIWSN) consists of more than 150weather stations located principally on schools on or near Vancouver Island in British Columbia,Canada. The Capital Regional District is the most densely monitored part of our network. Itincludes thirteen municipalities, covers an area of 2300 square kilometres and contains 105 weatherstations in urban, agricultural and natural areas. Several other urban centres and remote sites are
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 195
Poster Presentations
Monday June 1 (1530-1700)Session:1001
PostersGrand Foyer and Ballrooms B and C
also monitored on southern Vancouver Island. Most of the weather stations have been in operationfor seven years or less but the oldest station has been collecting data for thirteen years. Minuteresolution data is collected from each station and is broadcast back to the community through thewebsite www.victoriaweather.ca where various tools are available to view maps of the measured�elds in near real-time and to retrieve subsets of the data. More than six billion observationshave been collected to date. As the network has grown so too has interest and awareness aroundVancouver Island. Numerous applications of the weather station data for scienti�c, engineeringand media purposes have emerged. Initial analyses of some aspects of weather and microclimatepatterns of Greater Victoria and Vancouver Island at community scales are presented along withcomparisons of VIWSN observations with Environment Canada weather stations where these sys-tems overlap.
15:30An exploratory analysis of the Industry/ArcticNet extensive array of moored oceancurrent ADCP datasets collected from 2009 to 2011Jessy Barrette1, David Fissel1, Keath Borg1, Jennifer Jackson1, Matthew Asplin11ASL Environmental SciencesContact: [email protected]
The Mackenzie Shelf break area situated south of the Beaufort Sea constitute a rich region froma physical oceanography perspective. Locally, atmospheric forcing, sea ice cover and bathymetricparticularities can have great repercussions on the local current dynamic. On a more macro scales,major currents present over the area can also have a great impact locally and regionally. Wepresent here an initial exploratory analysis of the current (ADCP) data from 8 sub-surface mooringsdeployed simultaneously on the continental slope (6 moorings) and the outer shelf (2 moorings) aspart of the Industry/ArcticNet collaboration program conducted from July 2009 to September2011. Spatial variability along and across the slope are analyzed as well as episodic energeticevents observed during the more than two years of continuous operation of the moorings Distinctspatial di�erences are evident in the patterns of current speed and directional distributions inthe uppermost 200 m of the water column. The currents are highly variable among the di�erentmeasurement locations and in time, being very episodic in nature. Below 200 m in the AtlanticWater, the currents are reduced in magnitude and exhibit bimodal directional distribution.
15:30A model for the vertical spread of forest �re smoke within the initial smoke plume.Rosie Howard1, Annie Seagram1, Roland Stull11UBCContact: [email protected] new smoke plume-rise model for the BlueSky framework, which forecasts dispersion of forest �resmoke, is presented. The thermodynamic approach incorporates the e�ect of the mean wind blowingacross the �re front. The area between a dry adiabat and an environmental sounding representativeof air in the vicinity of the forest �re is integrated. This area is set equal to the heat distributedvertically to warm the air to uniform potential temperature, thus giving a plume equilibrium-height
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 196
Poster Presentations
Monday June 1 (1530-1700)Session:1001
PostersGrand Foyer and Ballrooms B and C
estimation. The model is in the preliminary testing stage and needs to be evaluated using radiosondedata along with observed plume heights derived from the multi-angle imaging spectroradiometer(MISR) instrument. Further model improvements include extending the dry-adiabat assumptionto account for moist air.
15:30UK Met O�ce Uni�ed Model high-resolution simulations of an Antarctic strong windeventAndrew Orr1, Tony Phillips1, Stuart Webster2, Andy Elvidge3, Mark Weeks2, Scott Hosking1, JohnTurner11British Antarctic Survey2UK Met O�ce3University of East AngliaContact: [email protected]
Much of the Antarctic coast is susceptible to severe and hazardous strong wind events (SWEs)associated with the enhancement of strong katabatic �ow by the synoptic situation. The ability ofmodels to simulate such events is challenging due to the complex dynamics and the signi�cant in�u-ence of complex surface features. In this study, a SWE which occurred at Mawson, East Antarcticaon 25 July 2004 involving a hurricane force wind speed of ≈39 m/s is simulated by the Uni�edModel at three di�erent horizontal resolutions of 12, 4, and 1.5 km. It is apparent that all models:i) capture the qualitative evolution of the SWE suggesting that they are resolving the importantforcing mechanisms, ii) capture the weaker wind speeds associated with the onset and cessation ofthe SWE, and iii) underestimate the peak wind speed. The strength of the underestimate is depen-denton horizontal resolution, with the 4 and 1.5-km (12km) models underforecasting the peak windspeed by around 15% (46%). Additional sensitivity experiments and diagnostics are presented toimprove understanding of the processes responsible for the SWE and to identify shortcomings inthe model thatrequire improvements in the future.
15:30Development of a Statistical Model for Snow Water Equivalent Estimates in BritishColumbia, CanadaAndrew Snau�er1, Alex Cannon2, William Hsieh11University of British Columbia2Paci�c Climate Impacts ConsortiumContact: asnau�[email protected]
Numerous readily available gridded data products provide estimates of snow water equivalent (SWE)on regional to global scales. Such products include satellite passive microwave (PM) retrievals,observation-based products, land data assimilation systems (LDAS), reanalyses and hybrid prod-ucts. While such products give reasonable estimates in many contexts, they exhibit poor perfor-mance in areas of complex topography, heavy forest cover, and very deep snowpacks, conditionsthat dominate British Columbia. In order to overcome these di�culties, an arti�cial neural networkmodel has been developed to estimate SWE in BC. This model blends in-situ manual snow surveydata with the best performing gridded products and identi�ed covariates. The model improves
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 197
Poster Presentations
Monday June 1 (1530-1700)Session:1001
PostersGrand Foyer and Ballrooms B and C
estimates of SWE at left-out station test sets and partially corrects large negative biases, a keyshortcoming common among gridded SWE products over BC.
15:30Comparison between the CO2 products from the Environment Canada Carbon As-similation System and the Total Carbon Column Observing NetworkSebastien Roche1, Kimberly Strong1, Saroja Polavarapu2, Michael Neish21Department of Physics, University of Toronto2Environment Canada, DownsviewContact: [email protected]
The goals of Environment Canada Carbon Assimilation System (EC-CAS) are to monitor CH4 andCO2 �uxes over Canada and address climate mitigation policies related to carbon sources and sinks.The project started in April 2011 as a collaboration between Environment Canada, the Universityof Toronto and the University of Waterloo. EC-CAS is based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter andthe GEM-MACH model (Global Environment Multiscale Modelling Air quality and Chemistry).For this comparison, the CO2 output of ECCAS uses GEM-MACH with a modi�ed mass constraintand a posteriori �uxes from CarbonTracker 2010. The Total Carbon Column Observing Network(TCCON) is a network of ground-based Fourier transform spectrometers recording direct solarspectra in the near-infrared spectral region. These spectra are used to retrieve column-averaged drymole fractions (DMFs) of CO2, N2O, CH4, H2O, HDO, and HF. EC-CAS is still under developmentand so the purpose of this study is to compare EC-CAS model output to TCCON data to assess howwell the model can simulate CH4 and CO2 on a variety of scales. The comparisons are performedfollowing the procedure recommended for TCCON data. Results will be shown for ten TCCONsites for the year 2009, focusing on time series of EC-CAS and TCCON CO2 DMFs.
15:30Projected changes in precipitation and temperature characteristics over the CanadianPrairie Provinces using the Generalized Linear Model based multisite multivariatestatistical downscaling approachZilefac Elvis Asong1, M.N. Khaliq1, Howard Wheater1, K.P. Chun1, M.B. Masud11Global Institute for Water SecurityContact: [email protected]
Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) are an important tool for estimating fu-ture climates that might result from further anthropogenic modi�cation of the atmospheric system.However, outputs from these models cannot reliably be applied directly in many environmentaland water resources studies because of coarse spatial resolution and limitations in representingsub-grid scale processes. To bridge this gap, downscaling methods (i.e. statistical and dynamicaldownscaling methods) have been widely utilized to transform AOGCM information to local- andregional-scale resolution. In this study, a multisite multivariate stochastic modelling approach isdeveloped based on the generalized linear model (GLM) framework, using daily observations of pre-cipitation and minimum and maximum temperatures from 120 sites located across the CanadianPrairie Provinces: Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Large scale atmospheric covariates from
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 198
Poster Presentations
Monday June 1 (1530-1700)Session:1001
PostersGrand Foyer and Ballrooms B and C
the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis-I, teleconnection indices, ge-ographical site attributes, and observed precipitation and temperature records are used to calibratethese models for the 1971-2000 period. Validation of the developed models is performed on bothpre- and post-calibration period data. The calibrated models are used to generate daily sequencesof the selected weather variables for the historical (conditioned on NCEP predictors), and two non-overlapping future periods (i.e. 2011-2054 and 2055-2098) using outputs from six CMIP5 (CoupledModel Intercomparison Project Phase 5) AOGCMs (CanESM2, GFDL-CM4, HADGEM2, MIROC-ESM, MPI-ESM-LR, and NorESM1-M) corresponding to RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios.Preliminary results indicate that the developed models are able to capture spatiotemporal charac-teristics of observed precipitation and temperature �elds, as well as a number of important statistics,ranging from seasonal means to characteristics of temperature and precipitation extremes and someof the commonly used climate indices such as cold and heat waves, frost days, and dry and wet daysand their corresponding spells. Future changes in the mean and tail characteristics of precipitationand temperature variables are analyzed relative to the 1962-2005 reference period. The results ofthis analysis provide important information for decision- making. The study concludes that theGLM framework can reliably be used for multisite multivariate downscaling of AOGCM outputs inthis region of Canad.
15:30Enhancing Climate Monitoring in British ColumbiaVanessa Foord11BC Ministry of Forests, Lands, and Natural Resource OperationsContact: [email protected]
Operational weather networks and research weather stations have come together in British Columbiawith a common goal of providing data for climate monitoring in the province for other users. TheClimate Related Monitoring Program, led by the BC Ministry of Environment, is made up ofpartners from the Ministry of Forests, Lands, and Natural Resource Operations (FLNRO), Ministryof Transportation and Infrastructure, Ministry of Agriculture, BC Hydro, and Rio Tinto Alcan; allof whom are contributing weather data to a Provincial Climate Dataset. FLNRO's Forest EcosystemResearch Network, while not an operational weather network, is helping to �ll monitoring gaps inthe province, most notably on the mid-coast, northern BC, and high elevations. E�orts are currentlyunderway to create a designated climate station network with an appropriate level of geographiccoverage in BC for assessing the impacts of climate change and providing information for climatemodelling to the Paci�c Climate Impacts Consortium.
15:30The SMART �lter: An introduction to a novel data assimilation methodSam Pimentel1, David Grypma11Trinity Western UniversityContact: [email protected]
The SMART �lter (simultaneous multiplicative algebraic reconstruction technique) is a relativelynew �ltering algorithm (Qranfal & Byrne, 2011) that minimizes a cost function of weighted cross
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 199
Poster Presentations
Monday June 1 (1530-1700)Session:1001
PostersGrand Foyer and Ballrooms B and C
entropy (Kullback-Leibler) distances rather than the standard Euclidean distance. The SMART�lter was originally developed to solve ill-posed inverse problems that arise in reconstructing atime-varying medical image. This algorithm holds potential for data assimilation applications ingeophysical �uid problems where we are also interested in time- varying variables of large-scalesystems. The SMART �lter has advantages over the Kalman �lter in that it does not involvematrix-matrix multiplication or matrix inversion and thus is computationally more e�cient. Weintroduce the SMART �lter as a solution to the data assimilation problem bringing the methodto a new audience. We implement the SMART �lter on a simple data assimilation applicationand compare results with those of the Kalman �lter. These preliminary results demonstrate thealgorithms potential bene�ts for geophysical data assimilation applications.
15:30Characterizing the impact of geomagnetic storms on the electrical grid: a global com-parison of sudden ionospheric disturbance dataLauren Johnston11Not GivenContact: [email protected]
This study aims to determine whether certain geographical regions are more prone to solar �aredamage by analyzing data from sudden ionospheric disturbance (SID) monitors around the world.Solar �are damage to the electrical grid is caused by the voltage created between the atmosphereand the earth by the solar �are or the coronal mass ejection triggered by it. This overloads the powergrid and may damage it permanently. Previous studies found that in the United States the risk ofsolar �are damage to the electrical grid is correlated with increasing magnetic latitude, proximityto the coast, and ground conductivity. In order to substantiate the implications of these �ndingsfor Canada's electrical grid, SID data from Vancouver was compared to SID data from around theworld. Stanford University's data repository supplied the global SID data and a SID monitor wasset up in Vancouver to record the region's response to solar �ares. The Geostationary OperationalEnvironmental Satellite (GOES) �are catalogue was used to determine relevant intervals of solaractivity for which to compare SID data. The SID signal strength from each location, which isprovided at 5 second intervals, was matched with GOES X-class and C-class �ares from start toend time. Then, the relative impact of each solar �are was compared by magnetic latitude, proximityto the coast, and ground conductivity. The results of this study reveal a strong correlation betweenmagnitude of solar �are impact and magnetic latitude and minor correlations with coast proximityand ground conductivity. The major implication of this is that the Canadian government at thefederal and provincial level must take steps to protect the electrical grid from damage due togeomagnetic storms.
15:30The Super Arctic Storm in 2012: Investigation of Dynamics MechanismWei Tao1, Jing Zhang1, Yunfei Fu1, Xiangdong Zhang11Not GivenContact: [email protected]
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 200
Poster Presentations
Monday June 1 (1530-1700)Session:1001
PostersGrand Foyer and Ballrooms B and C
A strikingly super and long-lasting Arctic storm occurred in August 2012, along with which a recordlow sea ice extent was observed. In this study, the physical processes and mechanisms responsiblefor its long persistence and strong intensity were investigated by using the Weather Research andForecast (WRF) model. The storm was generated over northeastern Siberian coast on August 2,2012, and then moved into Arctic Ocean. It intensi�ed to reach its minimum sea level pressure of959hPa on August 6. Afterwards, the storm lingered over the Arctic Ocean for 7 days. Its intensityand duration is greater than 99% of all Arctic storms. OurWRF simulation results suggest that bothtroposphere baroclinic instability and Tropopause Potential Vorticity (TPV) anomaly contributeto the drastic intensi�cation and long persistence of the storm. If only baroclinic instability ispresent, the storm can intensify to some degree of its observed strength but has very short lifetime.Without the troposphere baroclinic instability, TPV anomaly alone can help to maintain the stormpersistence but the intensity is much weaker.
15:30Modelling Thermobaric E�ect in Quasi-geostrophic ApproximationMo Rokibul Islam1, David Straub11McGill UniversityContact: [email protected]
Thermobaricity implies that density cannot be written as a function of potential density and pres-sure, implying non-conservation of potential vorticity even in the absence of viscous and di�usivee�ects. In this study, a modi�ed version of QG (MQG) that takes into account thermobaric e�ectsis considered numerically. The MQG equations include an advection-di�usion equation for "spice";that is, for the temperature-salinity composition of the water. Lateral variability of spice a�ects thebase state buoyancy frequency, which can no longer be thought of as a function of z alone. Becauseof this, the 3d elliptic inversion cannot be separated into 2d inversions for each vertical mode. Anumerical technique to handle this, as well as preliminary results are presented. Our results to datesuggest that the addition of spice and thermobaricity to QG turbulence can lead to an enhancementof vertical structure.
15:30In�uence of snow and soil-moisture initialization on sub-seasonal predictability skillsof CanCM3Jaison Ambadan Thomas1, Aaron A. Berg1, William J. Merry�eld21University of Guelph2CCCma, Environment CanadaContact: [email protected]
This study examines the in�uence of snow and soil moisture initialization on sub-seasonal poten-tial and actual skills of Canadian Climate Model version 3 (CanCM3) predictions of springtime(April-May) near surface air temperature. Four series of ten-member ensemble forecasts, which areinitialized on 1st April where each series use di�erent land surface initialization, were performedfor the 20 year period 1986-2005. Potential predictability of temperature for extratropical North-ern Hemisphere land is assessed using synthetic truth and signal-to-noise methods, and compared
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 201
Poster Presentations
Monday June 1 (1530-1700)Session:1001
PostersGrand Foyer and Ballrooms B and C
with actual skills determined through validation against an ensemble mean of six reanalysis prod-ucts. Three of the four land surface initializations considered are intended to be realistic. Theseare obtained from the Canadian LAand Surface Scheme (CLASS) land component of the climatemodel driven o� line with bias-corrected meteorological �elds, with and without rescaling to theclimate model's land climatology, and from climate model runs where the atmospheric componentis constrained by reanalysis �elds. A fourth land surface initialization that is intended to be un-realistic consists of a "scrambled" version of that obtained from rescaled o�ine-driven CLASS, inwhich each ensemble member is assigned values from a year other than the one being forecasted.Comparisons of forecasts using the scrambled and corresponding realistic land initializations indi-cate that the latter show higher potential predictability skill overall especially over North Americaand parts of Eurasia at all lead times. The higher potential predictability is primarily attributedto correct initialization of land surface variables, in particular the snow water equivalent, and thefrozen and liquid components of soil moisture. Our results indicate that predictability is governedmainly by forecast signals, with high forecast noise also playing a role. The di�erences betweenpotential and actual skills are mainly attributed to the di�erences between observed and the initialsnow conditions used in the CanCM3 model forecasts.
15:30A modelling study of the e�ect of tide-surge interaction on the circulation and hy-drography over the Canadian eastern seaboardYuan Wang1, Jinyu Sheng1, Youyu Lu2, Li Zhai2, Shiliang Shan31Dalhousie University2Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries and Oceans Canada3Oceanography Dep. Dalhousie UniveristyContact: [email protected]
The coastal and shelf waters of Canada's eastern seaboard are frequently a�ected by winter andtropical storms. The dynamics of the response of these regions to storms are not well understood.The main objective of this study is to examine the storm-induced circulation, its interaction withtides, and the e�ect of the tide-surge interaction on the baroclinic circulation and hydrographyover these regions from numerical results. Version 3.1 of the Nucleus for European Modelling of theOcean (NEMO) is applied to the northwest Atlantic Ocean (NWA) with 1/12o horizontal resolutionand 50 vertical z-levels. The model forcing at the sea surface consists of the Climate ForecastSystem Reanalysis (CFSR) 6-hourly product of short wave and long wave radiation, surface wind,air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and monthly climatology of freshwater runo� fromten major rivers. The tidal forcing consists of (a) tidal surface elevation and depth-mean currentsof �ve major constituents at open boundaries and (b) tide-generating potential speci�ed at eachmodel grid. A parametric vortex is inserted to the large-scale wind forcing during a storm suchas Hurricane Juan. The model reproduces reasonably well the observed sea level elevations at tidegauges and general circulation over the NWA. The model also generates signi�cant sea surfacecooling of about 5oC behind the storm during Hurricane Juan. The storm-induced circulation canbe dominant over shallow coastal waters during a short period of time and the e�ect can last fora longer time. The e�ect of the tide-surge interaction on the circulation and hydrography over the
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 202
Poster Presentations
Monday June 1 (1530-1700)Session:1001
PostersGrand Foyer and Ballrooms B and C
coastal and shelf waters of the NWA will be discussed.15:30
Using WRF to improve roadway safety: impacts of adverse weather on tra�c collisions.Clark Pennelly1, Gerhard Reuter11University of AlbertaContact: [email protected]
Adverse weather can impose safety risks to roadway users. While most drivers can recognize thatmany types of weather increase the risk of collision, drivers tend to not make adequate adjustmentsto counterbalance the e�ects of poor weather. We studied the e�ects of adverse weather in the cityof Edmonton, Alberta, for three years to determine some relationships between weather and tra�ccollisions. We particularly focused on precipitation, wind speed, and visibility, and our analysis oftra�c collisions included collisions by type and severity. Furthermore, the University of Albertaproduces operational weather forecasts for the City of Edmonton's O�ce of Tra�c Safety, producing4 7-day forecasts every day, by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Theseweather forecasts are one of many inputs into a speed and collision prediction model used by theO�ce of Tra�c Safety in the hopes of preventing collisions in the city of Edmonton.
15:30The occurrence of Yanai waves in constrained geometriesFrancis Poulin1, Benjamin Storer11University of WaterlooContact: [email protected]
The destabilization of Yanai, or mixed Rossby-gravity, waves has been presented as a possiblemechanism for the formation of both the deep equatorial jet and the horizontal alternating zonal jetstructures. However, the analytical Yanai wave solutions are in the context of an in�nite equatorialgeometry, unlike the ocean basins which are clearly constrained. To explore this issue, we begin bypresenting the parametric formation of mixed Rossby-gravity waves as the domain transits from athin equatorial channel into an unbounded system. The formation is shown to exhibit a two-stagebehaviour: in large enough channels the classical Yanai wave solutions are recovered but whenthe domain is su�ciently constrained they can no longer exist. We discuss the length scales forwhich the Yanai waves occur and how their wave characteristics are altered by the geometry ofthe domain. Furthermore, the stability of Yanai waves at various stages of parametric formationis analyzed numerically and possible implications on jet formations in small equatorial bodies arediscussed.
15:30Tropospheric Ozone Variations in North AmericaJenny Hayon Jung1, Jane Liu1, David Tarasick2, Mohammed Osman21University of Toronto2Environment CanadaContact: [email protected]
Ozone plays a signi�cant role in controlling the chemical and radiative processes of the troposphere.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 203
Poster Presentations
Monday June 1 (1530-1700)Session:1001
PostersGrand Foyer and Ballrooms B and C
It in�uences the oxidizing capacity of the lower atmosphere, which controls the capacity of thelower atmosphere to remove pollutants. Increased levels of ozone are harmful to human beings andvegetation. Therefore, understanding of tropospheric ozone is of great importance and remains anarea of very active research. In this study, tropospheric ozone variations in North America arecharacterized based on a newly available data set from a recent study (Liu et al., 2013). This 3-dimensional ozone climatology dataset relies on the fact that ozone is moderately long-lived tracer,and uses a special domain-�lling technique with forward and backward trajectory calculations to�ll in spatial gaps in ozone sonde data., Thus it is able to provide information on ozone variationover the entire continent, whereas the original ozonesonde data provides information only on areasnear the measuring stations. We found that ozone in North America shows a latitudinal gradientfrom low ozone abundance in the south and high ozone in the north, in all layers of the troposphere(lower, middle and upper). The gradient is stronger in the winter than in the summer. Comparedto the global tropospheric ozone mean, the mean in North America is higher all throughout the1970s to the 2000s. For four decades (the 1970-2000s), ozone in North America generally increasedfrom the 1970s to the 1980s, and decreased from the 1980s to the 1990s, and then increased againfrom the 1990s to the 2000s. Uncertainty of this analysis will be further discussed.
15:30Sensing precipitation at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate ResearchFacility Alaskan Mega SiteScott Collis1, Jessica Cherry2, Jonathan Helmus1, Gary Wen3, Martin Stuefer4, Gijs de Boer5,Hans Virlinde6, Christopher Williams7, Matthew Shupe8, Nitin Bharadwaj9, Pavlos Kollias101Argonne National Laboratory2Univeristy of Alaska Fairbanks3Australian Bureau of Meteorology4University of Alaska5NOAA6Pennsylvania State University7CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder8University of Colorado - CIRES NOAA9Paci�c Northwest National Laboratory10McGill UniversityContact: [email protected]
In order to continue its mission to improve the representation of climate pertinent processes inall scales of weather models the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate ResearchFacility is reorganizing around two Mega sites. One of these sites is based around the NorthSlope of Alaska (NSA), which includes extensive instrument deployments at Barrow and OliktokPoint. This presentation will focus on a suite of measurements to better understand precipitationprocesses along the North Slope. ARM employs an all of the above approach to measurementswith a suite of remote sensing and in-situ instrumentation. Ice crystals, due to their complexity,provides a unique challenge. The work we will be showing is the �rst step towards quantitative iceprecipitation microphysics retrievals that will use advanced ground based instrumentation coupled
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 204
Poster Presentations
Monday June 1 (1530-1700)Session:1001
PostersGrand Foyer and Ballrooms B and C
with polarimetric Ka and X band radar retrievals. While this work is only in its initial phaseswe will show examples of di�erences in ice microphysical habit and the impact on various radarmeasurements.
15:30Lateral structures in the Labrador Current.Jody Klymak1, Igor Yashaev2, Jody Klymak11University of Victoria2Bedford Institution of OceanographyContact: [email protected]
Here we present �ne lateral scale (<1.5 km) pro�les of temperature, salinity and oxygen in theboundary system of the Labrador current. The lateral structure varies from the full length of thesections to cast-by cast variations. The structure of spice is investigated in terms of theories oflateral mixing.
15:30Ocean heat uptake and open water convectionSarah Marcil1, Jaime Palter11McGill UniversityContact: [email protected]
Understanding how the ocean takes up heat is crucial to improve predictions of the future globalsurface temperature increase. While many previous studies have evaluated the spatial distribution ofheat content change across the global ocean, a complete explanation of the mechanisms responsiblefor this distribution remains largely unknown. Hence, we lack a measureable indicator to judgewhether these predictions are reasonable. Here, we examine a large ensemble of climate modelsto understand what creates inter-model variability in deep ocean heat content change under globalwarming. Based on earlier studies on oceanic vertical heat transfer, we propose open water deepconvection as a principal mechanism for the transfer of heat from the deep ocean to the atmosphere.Therefore, the cessation of convection, as predicted in a future climate change scenario, wouldcontribute to the increase of deep ocean heat content. We compare the convective volume andocean heat content anomalies in 34 climate models of the IPCC Assessment Report 5. Most ofthese models show signs of open water deep convection in the North Atlantic and in the SouthernOcean. Moreover, the preindustrial variability in convective volume is linked to ocean heat contentanomalies in individual models. Yet, there is a wide range of model responses to the suppression ofconvection, suggesting additional mechanisms are in play in transporting heat to the deep ocean.Finally, in order to identify the most realistic climate models in term of these variables, a comparisonwith observations is achieved.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 205
Poster Presentations
Monday June 1 (1530-1700)Session:1001
PostersGrand Foyer and Ballrooms B and C
15:30Projecting the In�uence of Climate Change on Extreme Ground-level Ozone Eventsin the Downtown Areas of Toronto and Windsor, Ontario, CanadaKinson Leung1, William Gough11University of TorontoContact: [email protected]
Increasingly, it is becoming clear that climate change is a�ecting both the physical and socialenvironments, often in ways unanticipated. The relationship between climate change and air pol-lution is becoming or will become one of the major concerns to many people living in southernOntario, Canada. Ground-level ozone (O3) is perhaps one of the most familiar pollutants in On-tario because it is associated with most smog alerts in the province. The goal of this study is tostatistically downscale the Toronto and Windsor groundlevel- ozone-concentration data with thegeneral circulation model (GCM) and use the model output to forecast the in�uences, the changes,and the probabilities of occurrence of future Extreme Ground-level Ozone Events (EGLOGs) thatoccurs in the Toronto and Windsor Downtown areas under di�erent climate-change scenarios. Thedowscaling method used in this research to generate climate- change scenarios was the StatisticalDownScaling Model (SDSM) version 4.2.2. SDSM is a hybrid of regression-based and stochasticweather-generator downscaling methods. The result from this research has suggested that there willbe approximately 20 - 30% of gradual increase of daily maximum ozone-concentrations in the nexteight decades. In addition, the result also forecasted that the probabilities of occurrence of ExtremeGround-level Ozone events with the O3 concentration = 80 ppb (the current Ontario 1-hour Ambi-ent Air Quality criterion for extreme ozone concentration) will gradually increase to three times ofwhat we are experiencing today in the two downtown areas by the year of 2100 under the di�erentfuture scenarios in the third version of the Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3).
15:30Wavelet Analysis of Polar Vortex Variability over the 20th CenturyGrant Glovin1, Amanda Lynch1, Todd Arbetter11Brown UniversityContact: [email protected]
Recent increases in extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere have been linked to am-pli�ed planetary waves. Changes in planetary wave properties are linked to changes in climate;hence, �nding a mechanism that links the planetary wave variability under climatic forcing andmid-latitude blocking events has engendered a great deal of interest. In this study, wavelet anal-ysis is applied to time series of planetary wave phase speeds at high latitudes as a �rst step toassessing the potential for identifying these mechanisms in the observational record. A circumpolarannual cycle increase is found but signals at multiannual time scales demonstrate a more complexwestward propagation pattern with periods of intense wave variability. Signi�cant correlations be-tween wavelet power at all timescales and albedo, snow cover, atmospheric ozone levels, and surfacetemperature are demonstrated.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 206
Poster Presentations
Monday June 1 (1530-1700)Session:1001
PostersGrand Foyer and Ballrooms B and C
15:30Extrêmes hydrologiques et variabilités climatiques au Nouveau BrunswickNassir El-Jabi1, Daniel Caissie2, Noyan Turkkan11Université de Moncton2Pêches et Océans CanadaContact: [email protected]
Un large consensus scienti�que existe à savoir que le climat planétaire subi des changements signi-�catifs à tel point que notre société et environnement naturel en seront profondément modi�és aucours des prochaines décennies. Cette étude porte sur des analyses les inondations et les sécheressesau Nouveau-Brunswick. Une analyse de la fréquence des crues a d'abord été e�ectuée a�n d'établirles caractéristiques des régimes de fréquences élevées. Par la suite, une analyse des sécheressesa été e�ectuée au Nouveau- Brunswick a�n d'avoir une estimation de la probabilité des faiblesdébits tout au long de l'année. Ensuite, en utilisant des mod`eles de réseaux de neurones arti�ciels,une analyse des impacts des changements climatiques sur les régimes d'écoulement au N-B a étée�ectuée. D'autres données climatologiques ont été tirées du mod`ele couplé du climat du globe(MCCG3.1) sous les scénarios B1 et A2 des émissions de gaz à e�et de serre du Groupe d'expertsintergouvernemental sur l'évolution du climat (GIEC). Les champs d'observation du changementclimatique (températures et précipitations) ont été calculés avec l'approche delta. Un réseau deneurones arti�ciels a permis de prédire le débit d'eau futur à des stations hydrométriques précises.En�n, une analyse de la fréquence a été e�ectuée avec la fonction de distribution GEV (gener-alized extreme value) et les param`etres de la distribution ont été estimés selon la méthode desL-moments.
15:30Net ecosystem exchange of a disturbed and rewetted raised bog ecosystem measuredby eddy covarianceSung-Ching Lee1, Andreas Christen1, Andy Black2, Haven Jerreat-Poole1, Rick Ketler1, MarkusMerkens3, Dan Moore1, Zoran Nesic21Department of Geography and Atmospheric Science Program, The University of British Columbia2Biometeorology and Soil Physics Group, The University of British Columbia3Policy, Planning and Environment, Metro VancouverContact: [email protected]
Peatlands are ecosystems that can accumulate substantial amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO2) and sequester it over time in the form of peat. From an emission management perspective,carbon sequestered in bogs needs to be protected otherwise additional emissions due to land-coverchange may occur. The Burns Bog Ecological Conservancy Area (BBECA) in Delta, BC, onCanada's Paci�c Coast, is part of a remnant peatland ecosystem recognized as one of Canada'slargest undeveloped natural areas retained within an urban area. Historically, it has been substan-tially reduced in size and a�ected by peat mining and agriculture. Since the year 2005, the boghas been declared a conservancy area, and restoration e�orts in the BBECA focus on rewettingto promote a transition back to a raised bog. In this study, we quantify the �rst year of CO2exchange measured in a Beakrush-Sphagnum ecosystem representative of the BBECA. A �oating
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 207
Poster Presentations
Monday June 1 (1530-1700)Session:1001
PostersGrand Foyer and Ballrooms B and C
platform with an eddy-covariance system has been established in summer 2014. We characterizehow environmental factors a�ect the seasonal dynamics of this exchange. In the summertime (July-August), gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP) was 5.23 g C m2 day-1 and ecosystem respiration(Re) was 1.99 g C m-2 day-1 making the bog a net carbon sink. Measurements from November toDecember show a GEP of 1.70 g C m-2 day-1 and Re of 1.43 g C m-2 day-1 maintaining the bogas carbon sink. The magnitude of GPP and Re are lower at this disturbed site than in previousstudies of pristine northern peatlands, raising the questions as to the low productivity is due torewetting or the previous disturbance. The measured ecosystem is not highly productive, yet theconsiderably limited Re due to oxygen limitation sequesters consistently CO2. Our measurementsshow further that soil temperature and soil water content were major drivers on seasonal changesof net ecosystem exchange.
15:30Analysis of a Bias-Corrected Methodology for Precipitation Measurements to improveInconsistencies across Alaska and Yukon BorderLucia Sca�1, Daqing Yang2, Yanping Li11Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan2National Hydrology Research Center, Environment CanadaContact: lucia.sca�@usask.caIt is known that discontinuities exist in climate records across national boundaries because of thedi�erent instruments and observation methods used in adjacent countries. For instance, the Na-tional Weather Service (NWS) 8-inch gauge is used for precipitation measurements in the UnitedStates, and the Nipher snow gauge is the standard instrument for snow observations in Canada. In-struments also change over time in most operational networks, resulting in signi�cant breaks in thedata record. It has been realized that a combination of regional precipitation records from di�erentsources may result in inhomogeneous precipitation time series that can lead to incorrect spatialinterpretations. The objective of this work is to quantify the spatial precipitation inconsistenciesacross the border between Alaska and Yukon. Gauge precipitation data have been corrected toaccount for wind e�ect on the catch e�ciency and other errors. We analyze the spatial variation ofthe bias corrections across the Alaska/Yukon border. Due to di�erences in precipitation measure-ments by the national gauges, a spatial inconsistency in the precipitation measurements is observedin monthly time series, dispersion plots, and the Double Accumulated Curves across the border. Adiscretization of 2 station groups was selected for the north and central regions, we �nd changesin the double mass curve between measured and corrected precipitation in the north part, mainlydue to the di�erence in biases and their corrections (the mean annual correction is around 14% inCanada and 65% in United States for the North). We also see a di�erence in snow measurementcorrections in the central part (around 3% in Canada and 7% in United States). This inconsistencyin the precipitation measurements should be taken into account when using the precipitation dataacross the national borders, especially during winter season, when snowfall is the most bias-a�ectedin windy and cold conditions.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 208
Poster Presentations
Monday June 1 (1530-1700)Session:1001
PostersGrand Foyer and Ballrooms B and C
15:30Reproducing sea-ice deformation distributions with viscous-plastic sea-ice modelsAmélie Bouchat1, Bruno Tremblay11McGill UniversityContact: [email protected]
High resolution sea-ice dynamic models o�er the potential to discriminate between sea-ice rheolo-gies based on their ability to reproduce the satellite-derived deformation �elds. Recent studies haveshown that sea-ice viscous-plastic (VP) models do not reproduce the observed statistical propertiesof the strain rate distributions of the RADARSAT Geophysical Processor System (RGPS) defor-mation �elds [1][2]. Here, we investigate what could be the source of this discrepancy. To do so,we use the elliptical VP rheology and we compute the probability density functions (PDFs) forsimulated strain rate invariants (divergence and maximum shear stress) and compare against thedeformations obtained with the 3-day gridded products from RGPS. We �nd that an overestimationof the shear in the range of mid-magnitude deformations is present in all of our VP simulationstested with di�erent spatial resolutions and parameters. Runs with no internal stress (free-drift)or with constant viscosity coe�cients (Newtonian �uid) also show this overestimation and suggestthat there exist an inherent shear in the wind forcing that is not properly converted by the VPmodel in a �atter sea-ice shear distribution. A closer look at the deformations present in the wind�eld (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis) used to derive our atmospheric forcing indeed shows a similar pat-tern of increased mid-magnitude shear that is very distinct from the RGPS distribution for sea-ice.Increasing the shear resistance of the ice could provide a way for VP models to be able to resist thewind shear forcing in this range and result in a �atter sea-ice shear distribution. [1] Girard et al.(2009), Evaluation of high-resolution sea ice models [...], Journal of Geophysical Research, 114 [2]Girard et al. (2011), A new modeling framework for sea-ice mechanics [...], Annals of Glaciology,57, 123-13.
15:30On the universality of the Universal Tropospheric Gravity Spectrum waves in theArctic and non-Arctic atmosphereMelanie Wright1, Wayne Hocking11University of Western OntarioContact: [email protected]
Abstract. In 1982, VanZandt proposed a universal spectrum for gravity (buoyancy) waves in theatmsphere, specifying a shape to the intensity of gravity wave energy versus their wavenumber thatis independent of geographic location, meteorological conditions, and time, especially for upper al-titudes. This was based in part on the oceanographic work of Garrett and Munk (1972, 1975), butwith special adaptations for the atmosphere. The literature absorbed the concept of universality:many (e.g. Medvedev and Klassen 1995) produced power spectral density forms. Various theorieswere employed, such as Weinstock's nonlinear wave di�usion, Hines' Doppler-spread theory, shed-ding, and linear instability theory. Focus then shifted towards deviations from the spectrum (e.g.Eckermann 1995, Tsuda et al., 2000), and the degree of universality became less certain. Withinthe troposphere, where waves are often still relatively close to their sources, universality is even
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 209
Poster Presentations
Monday June 1 (1530-1700)Session:1001
PostersGrand Foyer and Ballrooms B and C
more questionable, and the relative roles of waves and 2-D turbulence is an issue. We have inves-tigate the form of the tropospheric gravity wave spectra at two quite distinct geographic locations,using several radars in Ontario and and Eureka, NU, (all in Canada), for altitudes between 1-14km, and through di�erent seasons over several years. We have investigated both spectral log-logslopes and power o�sets. Despite the claim of universality, our analysis using Ferraz-Mello's (1981)data- compensated discrete Fourier transform method reveals distinct deviations, both random andsystematic, from universality. At the Negro Creek site, for example, in southern Ontario, a weakseasonal variation is evident, while at Eureka the most signi�cant changes are on time-scales of years,with noticeable trend evident between 2007 and 2014. These deviances will be discussed.
15:30Numerical simulation of shoaling mode-2 internal wavesDavid Deepwell1, Marek Stastna11University of WaterlooContact: [email protected]
It is well understood that coherent, large amplitude internal waves are a common occurrence inthe coastal ocean. Such waves are often associated with locations in which tides interact witha sill, and examples of well studied geographical locations are the South China Sea, the Strait ofGibraltar, and Knight Inlet, British Columbia. Typically the waves observed have a so-called mode-1 vertical structure with isopycnals rising or falling together at all depths. For such waves a wellde�ned mathematical description is available through the Dubreil-Jacotin-Long equation. Thereis a smaller, though not insigni�cant, literature that reports observations of mode-2 waves in thecoastal ocean. Like their mode-1 counterparts, mode-2 waves will follow the generation-propagation-dissipation lifecycle, though in contrast to their mode-1 counterparts, mode-2 waves may experienceresonance with short mode-1 waves. We present numerical simulations of mode-2 waves on thelaboratory scale that shoal over bottom topography. We characterize the manner in which the mode-2 wave breaks down during shoaling, focusing on the contrast between breaking and conversion toa mode-1 wave train. Finally we compare the simulations with laboratory experiments.
15:30Sea Ice Pressure Events in Hudson Strait from RADARSAT: Implications for WinterShipping in the Eastern Canadian ArcticOlivia Mussells1, Jackie Dawson1, Stephen Howell21University of Ottawa2Environment CanadaContact: [email protected] extraction opportunities in the Canadian Arctic combined with improved navigation re-lated to changes in sea ice has increased interest in winter shipping activities. Pressured ice canhinder the progress of or beset even ice-strengthened vessels, and this can lead to heavy costs foroperators in terms of fuel and other expenses. Beset vessels can also cause environmental concernsrelated to unnecessary emissions and potential fuel spills. An important region of winter shippingactivity in the Canadian Arctic is the corridor from Hudson Strait to Deception Bay, Quebec.Ice concentrations within the corridor are typically between 9-10 tenths during winter months and
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 210
Poster Presentations
Monday June 1 (1530-1700)Session:1001
PostersGrand Foyer and Ballrooms B and C
pressured ice is known to occur but has never been quanti�ed over long time periods. This study in-vestigated pressured ice events in a de�ned shipping corridor in Hudson Strait using RADARSAT-1and -2 imagery for the winter shipping season from 1997 to 2012. Features hazardous to ships thatare associated with pressured ice (i.e. ridges, shear zones, leads, and areas of land-fast ice) weremanually identi�ed on the imagery and a 15-year time series analysis of these deformation eventswas constructed using an original method. Preliminary results indicate identi�able temporal andspatial patterns in ridging. The connections between besetting events and deformation featuresover the past 15-years were also explored. The outcomes of this work will aide in route selectionand navigational decision-making and will help to better understand the in�uence of pressured iceon ship besetting events. This method could be used in other regions of the Arctic in order to assesspatterns in sea ice pressure and sea ice dynamics.
15:30Initial observations of ice crystal habits and size distributions at Summit, GreenlandKathleen Willmot1, Ralf Bennartz1, Manuel Martinez1, John Rausch11Vanderbilt UniversityContact: [email protected]
A Multi-Angle Snow�ake Camera (MASC) was recently installed at Summit Station, Greenland inaddition to the existing suite of atmosphere- and precipitation-measuring instruments associatedwith the NSF-funded ICECAPS (Integrated Characterization of Energy, Clouds, Atmospheric state,and Precipitation at Summit) project. The preliminary observations are presented from the �rstmonth of deployment. When a hydrometeor falls through the instrument opening, the MASC usesinfrared sensors to trigger three cameras all focused on one focal point. These images are usedto distinguish ice crystal habits and size distributions under di�erent atmospheric and synopticconditions. The size distributions may ultimately be used to constrain CloudSat-derived snowfallamounts, providing more accurate snowfall estimates over the Greenland Ice Sheet.
15:30Atmospheric pro�les in the Arctic seasonal ice zone and the role of synoptic conditionsZheng Liu1, Axel Schweiger1, Ron Lindsay11Applied Physics Laboratory, University of WashingtonContact: [email protected]
We use the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to simulate atmospheric con-ditions during the Seasonal Ice Zone Reconnaissance Survey (SIZRS) in the summer of 2013 overthe Beaufort Sea. With the SIZRS dropsonde data, the performance of WRF simulations and twoforcing datasets is evaluated: the Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) and the GlobalForecast System (GFS) analysis. The observed atmospheric pro�les exhibit distinct thermodynam-ical states related to the synoptic conditions. Features such as the low- level temperature inversion,low-level jet (LLJ), and speci�c humidity inversion are frequently observed and are also related tothe synoptic conditions. In general, these features are reproduced in the mean pro�les by all threemodels. A near-surface warm bias and a low-level moist bias are found in ERA-Interim. WRFsigni�cantly improves the mean LLJ, with a lower and stronger jet and a larger turning angle than
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 211
Poster Presentations
Monday June 1 (1530-1700)Session:1001
PostersGrand Foyer and Ballrooms B and C
the forcing. The improvement in the mean LLJ is likely related to the lower values of the boundarylayer di�usion in WRF than in ERA-Interim and GFS, which also explains the lower near-surfacetemperature in WRF than the forcing. The relative humidity pro�les have large di�erences betweenthe observations, the ERA-Interim, and the GFS. The WRF simulated relative humidity closelyresembles the forcings, suggesting the need to obtain more and better-calibrated humidity data inthis region. We �nd that the sea ice concentrations in the ECMWF model are sometimes signi�-cantly underestimated due to an inappropriate thresholding mechanism. This thresholding a�ectsboth ERA-Interim and the ECMWF operational model. The scale of impact of this issue on theatmospheric boundary layer in the marginal ice zone is still unknown.
15:30Current surges and suspended sediments dynamics: Evidence for seabed erosion nearthe shelf break? Canadian Beaufort SeaPhilip Osborne1, Alexandre Forest1, Greg Curtiss1, Malcolm Lowings21Golder Associates Ltd2NorQuest SystemsContact: [email protected]
Sustainable development of marine hydrocarbon resources along the continental margins and slopesin the Arctic Ocean will depend on a more thorough understanding of factors in�uencing thedistribution and dynamics of seabed sediments that occur near the shelf-break and continentalslope. Recent seabed research in the southern Canadian Beaufort Sea conducted in response torelease of deep water leases for hydrocarbon exploration drilling indicates only a thin veneer (≈0.3m) of recent sediments overlie sediment dated at 9000 BP; the veneer of recent sediment thickenssigni�cantly down slope away from the shelf-break. We estimate the erosion potential of bedsediments and the magnitude of the resulting suspended load in relation to current velocity anddirection near the shelf-break with the aim of understanding the variability of sediment transportmechanisms within the bottom boundary layer. Measurements obtained during Industry-ArcticNetcollaboration (2009-2011) and the Beaufort Regional Environmental Assessment (BREA 2011-2013)reveal that near-bottom currents on the upper slope (140 to 150 m isobaths) are characterized byrecurring episodes of high velocities (instantaneous speeds up to ≈50-60 cm s-1) that are extensionsof current surges (≈60-80 cm s-1) occurring in the core of the shelf-break jet located at ca. 90-120 m isobath. These surges appear linked to the development of large-scale systems of strongwinds (>15-20 m s-1) propagating across the western Arctic Ocean, such as during epic storms ofNovember 2011, September 2012, and major ice-fracturing events linked with storms in January-March 2013. Strong currents correlate closely with high suspended sediment concentrations (upto ≈1 kg m-3) in the near bottom boundary layer (< 15 m) implying rapid advection and a localsource. Mean suspended load and erosion potential were approximately double at the western endof the Canadian shelf-break compared with the shelf-slope break further west suggesting that shearvelocity and sediment resuspension are topographically enhanced by the Mackenzie Trough.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 212
Poster Presentations
Monday June 1 (1530-1700)Session:1001
PostersGrand Foyer and Ballrooms B and C
15:30Validation of ocean temperature and salinity based on the Regional Ocean ModelingSystem (ROMS) in Korea Meteorological AdministrationJae-Young Byon1, Soyeon Kim1, Jong-Ho Lee11National Institute of Meteorological ResearchContact: [email protected]
Climate of the Korean Peninsula which is surrounded by sea on three sides is strongly in�uencedby sea surface temperature. Sea surface temperature a�ected by the interaction of the atmosphereand the ocean with insolation, radiation, and �ux, but it also changes substantially depending ontides and ocean currents. Numerical models are used to understand the currents and temperaturedistribution in the ocean due to large variability of ocean currents and di�culty of observation. Inorder to simulate three-dimensional ocean circulation of the northwestern Paci�c Ocean includingaround the Korean Peninsula, Korea Meteorological Administration has been operating ROMS sinceyear 2012 which is developed at Rutgers University in USA . The ROMS con�guration consists of8 km spatial resolution and 20 vertical layers with 115E - 150E longitude and 20N-50N latitude toproduce the ocean state every 1 hour and 72h forecasts once a day. The ROMS forecast veri�edagainst sea temperature and salinity which is observed from ARGO observation. Validation periodis from January to August 2014 and the error is analyzed for 10m to 2000m depth. Sea temperaturepredicted from ROMS underestimated in the middle depth of the ocean. Salinity showed the largedi�erence between the model and observation near surface of the ocean and the maximum di�erenceshowed around 800m depth. Spatial di�erence of sea temperature showed the maximum value overthe East Sea and Paci�c Ocean of east Japan. Spatial distribution of salinity di�erence showed thatROMS model forecast underestimated over the model domain. The ROMS forecast system need tobe improved with data assimilation in the future study.
15:30Historical Antarctic station-based pressure changes in austral summer during the 20thcenturyMegan Jones1, Ryan Fogt11Ohio UniversityContact: [email protected]
Several recent studies point to a profound in�uence of stratospheric ozone depletion on the Antarc-tic pressure variations over the last 30 years. Yet, as with much of Antarctic data, researchers areleft with neither long-term point (station) measurements of pressure variations across Antarctica,nor gridded pressure data from reanalyses or models that can be deemed reliable, given very littlein situ data to constrain the solution across the high southern latitudes. Thus, it is not clear howunique these changes are in a longer historical context spanning the entire 20th century. Usingreconstructions of Antarctic pressure based on the method of principal component regression, pres-sure variations across the austral summer since 1905 are examined for the �rst time. Notably,the reconstruction skill is the highest in austral summer compared to other seasons, allowing for adetailed investigation of the historical pressure variability. The poster will present several recon-structions from East Antarctica, the Antarctic interior, and the Antarctic Peninsula. It will be
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 213
Poster Presentations
Monday June 1 (1530-1700)Session:1001
PostersGrand Foyer and Ballrooms B and C
shown that there are signi�cant negative pressure trends at many stations, most marked in EastAntarctica, over the last 30 years. In the newly a�orded historical context, these trends are thestrongest they have been over the last century, highlighting the uniqueness of stratospheric ozonedepletion on the austral summer Antarctic circulation. Future work includes examining other sea-sons as well as comparing the reconstructions to climate model simulations with di�erent forcingmechanisms.
15:30A Geochemical Journey: Fingerprinting the Rivers of the Canadian Arctic ArchipelagoKristina Brown1, Bill Williams2, Eddy Carmack2, Donald McLennan3, Angulalik Pedersen3, AdrianSchimnowski4, Bernhard Peucker-Ehrenbrink1, Valier Galy1, Aleck Wang11Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution2Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada3Canadian High Arctic Research Station4Arctic Research FoundationContact: [email protected] present a unique dataset on the geochemistry of rivers in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago(CAA). During the summer of 2014, we conducted a preliminary investigation of six rivers draininginto the straits of the southern CAA, from Coronation Gulf in the west to Queen Maud Gulf in theeast. Our observations reveal surprising di�erences in the geochemical �ngerprints of each river,despite collecting samples at similar �ow stages. Drainage basin geology, permafrost cover, andprecipitation are considered to explain �ngerprint patterns. We also carried out a time series studyof Freshwater Creek, draining into Cambridge Bay, from ice-break up in June until low �ow in lateAugust. These data illustrate the dynamic seasonality of an Arctic river's geochemical �ngerprintover its annual hydrograph. In light of the limited historical data for the region, our observationshighlight the need for comprehensive geochemical measurements covering the entire �ow cycle ofCAA rivers. As the warming climate acts to increase permafrost thaw and precipitation north ofthe Arctic Circle, a change in the magnitude of terrestrial carbon and nutrient inputs from riverswithin the CAA will be impossible to assess without these types of baseline data. A primary goalof this work is to establish a framework for community-based geochemical monitoring and developa long term data set from which to assess environmental change.
15:30Adjusting the Fischer Porter/Belfort 3000 precipitation gauge for the systematic un-dercatch of snowfallCraig Smith1, Lauren Arnold1, Barry Goodison21Climate Research Division, Environment Canada2Not GivenContact: [email protected]
The Fischer Porter precipitation gauge, which became the Belfort 3000 precipitation gauge in theearly 1980s, has been used extensively across Canada in both operational and research observationnetworks for the all-season measurement of precipitation. Like most precipitation gauges, this gaugeis susceptible to wind induced under-catch of snowfall (Goodison, 1977). Although the gauge has
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 214
Poster Presentations
Monday June 1 (1530-1700)Session:1001
PostersGrand Foyer and Ballrooms B and C
become largely obsolete, it had a relatively long period of use necessitating the requirement for arobust adjustment for wind under-catch that can be applied to historical measurements. Since 2003,a Belfort 3000 inside a single Alter wind shield (which is a typical con�guration) has been co-locatedat the Bratt's Lake observatory with a Geonor inside a Double Fence Intercomparison Reference(DFIR) wind fence. This Geonor gauge inside the DFIR, which will be called the Geonor-DF,will serve as the reference for this intercomparison. As anticipated, the precipitation totals for theBelfort 3000 and Geonor-DF agree quite closely during rain events but deviate substantially duringsnowfall events. A preliminary catch e�ciency - wind speed relationship for snowfall is presentedto facilitate adjusting the snowfall under-catch for this gauge.
15:30Glider Deployments to Measure Microstructure on the Beaufort Sea Continental Shelf,Summer 2015Benjamin Scheifele1, Stephanie Waterman1, Je� Carpenter21UBC2Helmholtz Zentrum GeesthachtContact: [email protected]
We present plans to deploy three Slocum G2 gliders (two deep, one shallow) equipped with mi-crostructure sensors in Amundsen Gulf and on the Mackenzie Shelf in August 2015. This regionis traditionally challenging for glider operations because of rapidly changing sea-ice conditions andstrong strati�cation between the surface and the Atlantic Water (≈300 m) layers. However, if con-ditions are favourable the gliders will be capable of providing a unique dataset of microstructureshear, temperature, and conductivity measurements that can be used in conjunction with existingCTD and ITP measurements to determine turbulent energy dissipation rates, observe turbulentmixing mechanisms, and to quantify shelf-basin exchanges.
15:30Instabilities of Mesoscale Jets Over Shelf Topography in a Two-Layer Ocean ModelRobert Irwin1, Francis Poulin2, Alexandre Stegner31University of British Columbia2University of Waterloo3Ecole PolytechniqueContact: [email protected] coastal currents are ubiquitous in the world's ocean. However, the combination ofstrati�cation and topography has made a full study of their stability di�cult. The stability char-acteristics of oceanic jets are investigated using a two-layer, rotating shallow water model. Weconsider a geostrophic Bickley jet overlying a gently sloping continental shelf with a piecewise ver-tical structure to idealize physical oceanic jets. We use a stability analysis to compute the linearstability characteristics and modal structures of several types of pro�les including: purely barotropic�ow, mostly baroclinic �ow, surface-layer intensi�ed �ow, and bottom-layer intensi�ed �ow. Thesepro�les are generic enough to give insight into how real mesoscale jets evolve over shelf topography.The analysis allows us to classify the unstable modes and also determine how their spatial struc-
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 215
Poster Presentations
Monday June 1 (1530-1700)Session:1001
PostersGrand Foyer and Ballrooms B and C
tures depend on the governing non-dimensional parameters. Subsequently, we use numerical toolsto study the nonlinear evolution to learn about the nonlinear equilibration process.
15:30Spatio-Temporal Coherence of Double Di�usive Structures in Saline Powell LakeArtem Zaloga1, Rich Pawlowicz1, Roger Pieters11University of British ColumbiaContact: [email protected]
Double di�usive staircase structures are found at high latitudes in the ocean, and may play animportant role in the regulation of vertical heat �ux. Although they are easily observed, their spatio-temporal evolution characteristics are poorly understood. An ideal, isolated natural observationsite for double di�usive convection (DDC) is found in Powell Lake in British Columbia, Canada,which contains geothermally heated relic sea water, trapped at the lake bottom, with cooler, freshwater at the surface. Previous work here has shown that the DDC staircase structures are present inmultiple vertical regions near the lake bottom. Three years of CTD pro�les along the length of thelake, along with a month long mooring with two current meters and over thirty temperature sensors(with a vertical resolution of seven centimetres over two metres), have provided novel observations ofthe spatio-temporal variations of this structure both on the scale of the overall 'staircase' as well asa single 'step'. Signi�cant variability has been observed on the time scale of hours within individualsteps, even though the overall layer structure shows coherency on the time scale of years.
15:30Flux-Pro�le Relationships under Stable Conditions at Arctic Terrestrial Sites.Elena Konopleva-Akish1, Andrey Grachev2, Taneil Uttal1, Ola Persson2, Sara Crepinsek2, RobertAlbee11NOAA2CIRESContact: [email protected]
Atmospheric energy �uxes are the key to understanding annual temperature cycles, seasonal landsnow cover, and the decrease of pack ice in the Arctic. The process of atmosphere-surface exchangemechanisms can be applied to modeling and forecasting improvement; this requires continuousmeasurements of energy budget components over multiple years. This study focuses on a turbulentsurface �ux analysis based on measurements made at two di�erent sites located near the coast ofthe Arctic Ocean at Eureka (Canadian territory of Nunavut) and Tiksi (East Siberia). Covarianceturbulent �uxes and mean meteorological data are measured continuously and processed to yieldhourly values for a 10-m (Eureka) and 20-m (Tiksi) �ux towers. The data shows strong sensible andlatent heat �uxes that form clear diurnal cycles during the summer months whereas during polarwinter and cold seasons these �uxes were small and irregular generally indicating stable conditions.The stable conditions are of greatest interest since it is observed in Arctic Boundary Layer 80%of the time. Turbulent �uxes and vertical pro�les of wind, air temperature and humidity areanalyzed in the framework of the Monin-Obukhov Similarity Theory. The �ux-pro�le relationshipsfor wind speed, temperature, and humidity were compared to parameterization of the gradients
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 216
Poster Presentations
Monday June 1 (1530-1700)Session:1001
PostersGrand Foyer and Ballrooms B and C
using three commonly used functional forms (Businger-Dyer, Beljaars-Holtslag formulaes, CASES-99 and SHEBA �eld campaign) Besides the turbulent �uxes of momentum, sensible heat and watervapor the atmospheric and surface measurements include mean wind speed, air temperature andhumidity, upwelling and downwelling short-wave and long-wave atmospheric and surface radiation,snow depth, surface albedo, soil heat �ux, active layer temperature pro�les that will lead in futurestudies to all components of the surface- atmosphere net and energy exchange budgets.
15:30Bottom Pressure Recorders Track Ocean Swells in Real-timeMartin Heesemann1, Johannes Gemmrich2, Earl Davis3, Richard Dewey2, Rick Thomson4, SteveMihaly11Ocean Networks Canada2University of Victoria3Natural Resources Canada4Fisheries and Oceans CanadaContact: [email protected]
The high-precision bottom pressure recorders (BPR) deployed on the NEPTUNE observatory ofOcean Networks Canada are capable of detecting a wide range of phenomena related to sea level vari-ations. The observatory BPRs include quartz pressure sensors built by Paroscienti�c Inc. and low-power, high-precision frequency counters developed for the Paci�c Geoscience Centre by BennestEnterprises Ltd.; they provide observations of nano-resolution pressure variations which correspondto sub-millimeter scale surface height variations in several kilometers of water. Detected signalsinclude tides, tsunamis, infragravity waves, swells (at sites shallower than 500 m), microseisms,storm surges, and seismic signals. Spectral analysis reveals many of these phenomena with periodsranging from a few seconds to many hours. Dispersion patterns from distant swells are prominentin the swell and microseism bands. By comparing the di�erence of arrival times between longerperiod waves, which arrive �rst, and shorter period waves we can estimate the distance the swellshave travelled since they were generated. Using this information, swells can be tracked back tospeci�c storms across the Paci�c. The presentation will high-light some of the more interestingsignals over several years of observations.
15:30Weather and Climate Decision Support Services in Alaska's ArcticRenee Tatusko11NOAA National Weather ServiceContact: [email protected]
Alaska's Arctic communities are almost entirely disconnected from wider infrastructure. This iso-lation ranges from standalone power stations and local telecommunications systems to the absenceof all-season land-transportation connections to other communities. And, it is precisely because ofthis isolation that decision makers require long lead times ahead of community actions in advanceof hazardous weather events. To meet these requirements, the National Oceanic & AtmosphericAdministration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) Alaska Region focuses more attention on
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 217
Poster Presentations
Monday June 1 (1530-1700)Session:1001
PostersGrand Foyer and Ballrooms B and C
the details of the 6-to-14 day outlooks than is commonly done at mid-latitudes. At this time range,dynamic model ensemble systems are critical to providing the best forecast information possible,including uncertainty and alternate scenario information that decision makers need to properly as-sess risk. This presentation will examine both tools used in developing impactful weather outlooksand ways that information is conveyed to NWS partners.
15:30NWS Alaska Sea Ice Program: Current and Future OperationsRenee Tatusko11NOAA National Weather ServiceContact: [email protected]
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS)Alaska Sea Ice Program (ASIP) is designed to service customers and partners operating and planningoperations within Alaska waters. The ASIP o�ers daily sea-ice and sea-surface temperature analysisproducts. The program also delivers a �ve-day sea-ice forecast three times a week, provides a three-month sea ice outlook at the end of each month, and has sta� available to answer sea-ice relatedinformation inquiries. The analysis and forecast products issued by the ASIP are used by manyentities to support navigational safety and community strategic planning. Our customers representacademia and research institutions, local, state, and federal agencies, re-supply barges, coastalsubsistence hunters, gold dredgers, �sheries, and the general public. Due to a longer sea-ice-freeseason during recent years, the waters around Alaska have become more congested. This has ledto a rise in decision support services from the ASIP, which remains in almost constant contactwith both the NOAA National Ice Center and the United States Coast Guard (USCG) to ensurethe best opportunity for safe navigation. In the past, the ASIP provided brie�ngs to the USCG insupport of Search and Rescue e�orts. This near-term support mission continues; however, the ASIPhas now begun brie�ng on sea-ice outlooks into the next few months to meet emerging planningrequirements. As Arctic marine tra�c increases, NWS Alaska anticipates the ASIP will be asked toprovide increased services on varying time scales to meet customer needs. This talk will address themany facets of the current ASIP as well as delve into what we see as the future of the program.
15:30An E�ective Approach to Remap Runo� onto an Ocean Model GridXianmin Hu1, Paul Myers11Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of AlbertaContact: [email protected]
Runo� is one of the most important freshwater sources for the ocean, particularly in the highArctic region where freshwater plays an important role in ocean strati�cation and circulation. Apoor representation of runo� in ocean model leads to saltier water in the river estuaries, impactsboundary currents and the fronts and plays a role in the salinity drift seen in many high resolutionocean models. Here we present an e�ective approach to remap runo� data onto any resolutionmodel grid. This method has a volume-conserving feature that guarantees the ocean model receivesthe same amount of freshwater as the original runo� data. It also provides an option to distribute
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 218
Poster Presentations
Monday June 1 (1530-1700)Session:1001
PostersGrand Foyer and Ballrooms B and C
the runo� at desired locations, consistent with the source of that freshwater. As an example, we willapply the Dai and Trenberth 1x1 degree runo� climatology to a 1/4th degree Arctic and NorthernHemisphere Atlantic (ANHA4) ocean model con�guration and show the di�erence in amount ofruno� received in various basins in the model, as well as the resulting impact on the hydrographyand circulation in the model.
15:30Spatial and temporal analysis of near-surface temperature lapse rates along two ele-vation transects in the Rocky Mountains in south western AlbertaWendy Wood1, Shawn Marshall11University of CalgaryContact: [email protected]
Hydrological models often rely on interpolated temperatures based on nearby valley bottom sta-tions. Surface temperature inversions, whereby temperatures increase with increasing elevation, canoccur in mountainous regions and impact these models. Daily minimum and maximum lapse rateswere calculated using data collected between October 2013 and August 2014 along two elevationtransects 50 km apart in the south western Canadian Rockies. Each day was classi�ed into one ofsix di�erent weather types using discriminant function analysis applied to surface meteorologicalmeasurements for the region. The variability of lapse rates between and within weather types wasexamined and the relationship between weather type and inversions was investigated. There isa statistically signi�cant separation between mean lapse rates for some weather types. However,there is also substantial overlap in the distributions of the lapse rates per weather type, indicatingmeteorological variability even within the same weather type. Positive lapse rates (inversions) occurmore frequently for daily minimum temperatures, with values exceeding 5oC/km on several days.Transect 1 minimum temperatures show inversions on approximately 35% of days, but only 10%of days show maximum temperature inversions. This implies the in�uence of cold-air drainage formany of the inversions. Maximum temperature inversions are most common during cold polar airevents, but are not systematically observed under these conditions. While inversions for transect2 are less common, approximately 80% of days having inversions at transect 2 also have inversionsat transect 1, indicating inversions can be regional as well as local occurrences. Overall, the dataprovide guidance on the 'best choice' of temperature lapse rate to use for a given weather system.Based on the high variability within each weather type, however, we recommend a statistical ap-proach for hydrological or ecological model applications, where daily lapse rates are sampled froma distribution.
15:30Examining transport of freshwater across the Labrador shelf-break using glidersTara Howatt1, Jaime Palter1, Robin Matthews2, Brad deYoung2, Ralf Bachmayer2, Brian Claus21McGill University2Memorial UniversityContact: [email protected]
Transport of freshwater from the Labrador Shelf into the interior Labrador Sea has the potential toin�uence deep convection by controlling the salinity of surface waters. To examine this transport,
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 219
Poster Presentations
Monday June 1 (1530-1700)Session:1001
PostersGrand Foyer and Ballrooms B and C
we deployed two deep underwater gliders that traversed the continental shelf-break more than 10times between July 5 and August 22, 2014, as part of the VITALS (Ventilation, Interactions andTransports Across the Labrador Sea) project. The �eld campaign yielded a unique data set oftemperature, salinity and oxygen across the shelf-break at unprecedented spatial resolution. Weexamine two mechanisms of cross-shelf transport: Ekman transport and transport due to mesoscaleeddies. Glider observations show a tongue of freshwater emanating from the shelf along the surface,indicative of Ekman transport. This surface Ekman transport is quanti�ed using satellite windstress. The eddy induced transport is scaled using thickness gradients of layers of uniform poten-tial density. Our results reveal a very di�erent balance from that suggested for the transport offreshwater from the Antarctic shelf in the Weddell Sea using glider observations and similar scalingtechniques, where both Ekman transport and mesoscale eddies are principally moving freshwatertowards the shelf.
15:30Atmospheric E�ects on Communications in the High ArcticJames Drummond11Dalhousie UniversityContact: [email protected]
With the ubiquitous nature of satellite TV and other forms of space-based communication, it iseasy to think that satellite communications is a solved problem. However in the High Arctic theview angle of geostationary satellites becomes very low and the atmospheric path very long andatmospheric e�ects become important. This is especially so at the Polar Environment AtmosphericResearch Laboratory (PEARL) at Eureka, Nunavut which maintains what is thought to be themost Northerly geostationary communications link on the planet. Over the last decade we havegained much operational experience in communications in such marginal areas and also in thee�ect of the atmosphere on the link. This has resulted in experiments with vertical diversity andmultiple links and the rules for switching between them due to atmospheric fading and scatteringwhich are in turn a function of the meteorological conditions. This talk will focus on the physicsof the links and how the atmosphere and other elements of the environment a�ects them as wellas the operational aspects of keeping such links operational through all conditions. PEARL issupported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Council (NSERC), Environment Canada (EC),the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) and Dalhousie University.
15:30Dissolved Methane in the Beaufort SeaLantao Geng1, Huixiang Xie2, Wanjun Lu11Key Laboratory of Tectonics and Petroleum Resources of Ministry of Education, Faculty of EarthResources, China University of Geosciences, No.388 Lumo Road, Wuhan 430074, China2Institut des sciences de la mer de Rimouski, Université du QuébecContact: [email protected]
Concentrations of dissolved methane ([CH4]s) were determined in coastal and o�shore waters ofthe Beaufort Sea in August and September 2014. Surface water [CH4]s ranged from 2.95 to 10.86
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 220
Poster Presentations
Monday June 1 (1530-1700)Session:1001
PostersGrand Foyer and Ballrooms B and C
nmol L-1 (mean: 3.80 nmol L-1) with elevated values occurring on the river-impacted MackenzieShelf. Methane in surface water was mostly supersaturated relative to the atmosphere throughoutthe study area. Shallow subsurface [CH4] maxima (up to 25.52 nmol L-1) were observed on theMackenzie Shelf at similar depths of subsurface chlorophyll maxima. In contrast, methane wasenriched (up to 30.78 nmol L-1) in bottom water on the continental shelf of Barrow, Alaska,suggesting an input of methane from underlying sediments. A vertical pro�le collected in theslope water o� Barrow, Alaska revealed a deep [CH4] maximum at 1500 m with a concentrationof 14.37 nmol L-1, contrasting the very low [CH4]s (less than 1 nmol L-1) found in deepwaters ofthe Canada Basin. Relationships between [CH4] distributions and water mass characteristics werediscussed.
15:30Measurements and modelling of surface energy balance at a glacier in the InteriorMountains, British Columbia.Noel Fitzpatrick1, Mekdes Tessema1, Valentina Radic1, Zoran Nesic2, Joseph Shea3, BrianMenounos4, Stephen Déry51University of British Columbia, Earth Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences2The University of British Columbia, Faculty of Land and Food Systems3International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, International Centre for IntegratedMountain Development, Kathmandu, Nepal4University of Northern British Columbia, Geography Program and Natural Resources and Envi-ronmental Studies5University of Northern British Columbia, Environmental Science and Engineering ProgramContact: [email protected] balance melt models provide the most physically-based method to model surface mass bal-ance for a glacier since they account for radiative and turbulent exchanges occurring at the snow orice surface. Direct measurements of turbulent �uxes, however, are uncommon given the complexityof making reliable measurements of turbulent energy exchange on alpine glaciers. Most studiesthus rely on the bulk aerodynamic method used to parameterize turbulent �uxes; an approach thatmay be inaccurate due to poorly speci�ed empirical coe�cients. Here we present measurementsof radiative and turbulent energy �uxes for an alpine glacier in the Interior Mountains of BritishColumbia for ablation season in 2010 and 2012. We evaluate the performance of an energy balancemodel in simulating the in-situ surface melting on sub-daily scales and validate the performanceof bulk methods in simulating the turbulent �uxes relative to directly measured �uxes by eddycovariance method.
15:30Wind Pro�ler and RASS Applications for Severe Weather Forecasting in Coastal BCMindy Brugman1, Trevor Smith21Environment Canada2Paci�c Storm Prediction CentreContact: [email protected]
Severe Weather forecasting is improved using the 915 MHz (33 cm) Doppler Radar Wind Pro�ler
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 221
Poster Presentations
Monday June 1 (1530-1700)Session:1001
PostersGrand Foyer and Ballrooms B and C
(WP) and Radar Acoustical Sounder (RASS) system located at Squamish BC, near sea level alongthe Sea to Sky Corridor. This pro�ler system is useful for real-time tracking of changes in freezinglevel, snow level (SL), wind speed and direction, virtual temperature (Tv), and precipitation (typeand intensity). The SL is de�ned as the lowest elevation where snow accumulates and lies atthe base of the Radar Bright Band (BB). By building on the lessons learned during the Vancouver2010 Olympics, new products were developed for operational meteorologists to better display activeweather using hydrometeor re�ectivity from the Doppler Signal to Noise Ratio (DVV-SNR) andhydrometeor fall speed using the Doppler vertical velocity (DVV). Additionally, this WP systemallows tracking of inertial gravity waves, clear air turbulence, wind shear, downburst potential,boundary layer land-sea breeze circulations, major density currents (such as stratus surges and arcticfronts), mid-latitude cyclone air�ow and frontal systems, and allows separation of hydrometeor fallspeeds from vertical air motions in the melting snow layer. The greatest discrepancies in the DVV-SNR re�ectivity data are observed at the SL as shown by comparing the half hour Consensus (CNS)re�ectivity data provided by the instrument manufacturer (Vaisala-SciTech LAP-XM) software toour new 1 minute Spectral re�ectivity products (with SNR corrected by CMML for PSPC-MSCoperations). The discrepancies are best explained by the coexistence of many precipitation typesand sizes accelerating through the SL and BB base, such as collapsed melting snow �akes andaggregates, rain, graupel, sleet and slush. Overall, the wind pro�ler with the RASS system allowsbetter analysis and prognosis under a variety of weather conditions. Examples are provided todemonstrate how the Squamish pro�ler system can help forecasters address public safety challengesduring severe weather events through improved situational awareness.
49th CMOS Congress and 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography 222
Author Index
AAbadzadesahraei, Sina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38Abraham, Jim . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186Abrahamowicz, Maria . . . . . . . . . . . . 52, 93Achtert, Peggy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162Ackley, Steve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .70Afshar, Banafsheh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44Afsharian, Soudeh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69Ahluwalia, Harinder . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186Aider, Rabah . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35Alavi, Nasim . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52Albee, Robert . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163, 216Allard, Rick . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24, 91, 138Allen, Susan . . . . . . . . 65, 86, 87, 160, 176Ambadan Thomas, Jaison . . . . . . . . . . .201Anderson, Bruce . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169, 170Angadi, Kanachi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76Arbetter, Todd . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .128, 206Arhonditsis, George . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128Armour, Kyle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165Arnold, Lauren . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214Arora, Vivek . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56, 146Asaadi, Ali . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102Asong, Zilefac Elvis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198Asplin, Matthew . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141, 196Atallah, Eyad H. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .194Auclair, Jean-Pierre . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .116Auld, Heather . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128Austin, Philip . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .123
BBélair, Stéphane . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52, 93, 122
Babanin, Alex . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70Bachmayer, Ralf . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219Bai, Lesheng . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25, 31, 111Baibakov, Konstantin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171Bailey, Joseph . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67Bajish, CC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142Bandet, Marion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173Barclay, David . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75Barlage, Michael . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111Barnes, Elizabeth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2Barrette, Jessy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .196Bartlett, Kevin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172Barton, Neil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90Battisti, David . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1, 50Bauer, Peter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92Baumgartner, Mark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74Bazile, Eric . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124Beaudoin, Christiane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63Beaulne, Alain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111Belair, Stephane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33Belanger, Jean-Marc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63Bembenek, Eric . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41Bennartz, Ralf . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211Berg, Aaron A. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201Berg, Stephen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21Bernier, Natacha . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65, 89Berry, Johanna . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159Best, Martin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89Bharadwaj, Nitin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204Bitz, Cecilia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152Bjork, Goran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162Black, Andy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145, 207
Blais, Marjolaine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .120Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward . . 152Blockley, Ed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .48, 89Blyth, Eleanor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89Bonsal, Barrie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81Boodoo, Sudesh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61, 102Boone, Chris . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46, 183Borg, Keath . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141, 196Borstad, Gary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159Bouchat, Amélie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209Bourdages, Line . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .47Bouteloup, Yves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191Brady, Michael . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .95Brerton, Ashley . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89Bricheno, Lucy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .89Bromwich, David . . . . . . . . . . 25, 31, 92, 111, 113,
192Brooks, Barbara . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162Brooks, Ian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94, 162Brossier, Eric . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72Brown, Kristina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .214Brown, Leslie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159Brown, Ross . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137Brugman, Mindy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221Brunet, Gilbert . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89, 102Brunke, Michael . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163Bublitz, Anne . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .142Bucholtz, Anthony . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169Buehner, Mark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89, 111Bullock, Terry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124Bumbaco, Karin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113Bundred, Martin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54Burrows, William . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124Butler, Ken . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29Byon, Jae-Young . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .213
CCôté, Chantal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .111Caissie, Daniel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207Calvert, Corey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124Campbell, Maggie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131Cannon, Alex . . . . . . . 11, 54, 81, 150, 197Carmack, Eddy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214Carnat, Gauthier . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72Carpenter, Je� . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .215
Carrieres, Tom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89Casagrande, Fernanda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194Cassano, Elizabeth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49Cassano, John . . . . . . . .23, 25, 49, 96, 161Cassidy, Alison . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145Cathles, L. Mac . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .180Champoux, Olivier . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133Chance, Kelly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .181Chapman, Ron . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .54Charette, Joannie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120Charles, Tony . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65Chasse, Joel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133Chavanne, Cédric . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18, 173Chegini, Fatemeh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64Chen, Baozhang . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147Chen, Chain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90Chen, Dake . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95Chen, Shu-Ya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113Chen, Si . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190Chen, Yongsheng . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .53, 112Cheng, Vincent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128Cheng, Yanjie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .153Chergui, Nacera . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .55Cherneski, Darren . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .54Cherry, Jessica . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .204Cho, Young-Min . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164Chosson, Frederick . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191Christen, Andreas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145, 207Chun, K.P. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198Church, Ian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120Chylek, Petr . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101Clarke, Garry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7Claus, Brian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219Clavet-Gaumont, Jacinthe . . . . . . . . . . . .35Clem, Kyle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48Cole, Jason . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46Collins, David . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122Collis, Scott . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204Comeau, Adam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74Conway, Stephanie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183Corlett, Gary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137Corr, Chelsea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169Costanza, Carol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20Courtois, Peggy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156Couvreux, Fleur . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
Cox, Christopher . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170Craig, Anthony . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23, 25, 96Crawford, William . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42Crepinsek, Sara . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216Cross, Ben . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67Cullather, Richard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152Curry, Charles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67Curtiss, Greg . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212
DD'Astous, Alain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18Déry, Stephen . . . . . . . . 16, 38, 60, 82, 221Dailyde, Laura . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32Daines, Je� . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68Das, Uma . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .164Davidson, Fraser . . . . . . .63, 64, 76, 85�87Davies, Kim . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74Davies, Rhiannon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94Davis, Cabell . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119Davis, Earl . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217Davis, Richard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74Dawson, Jackie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210Day, Jonny . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92de Boer, Gijs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204de Elia, Ramon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56de Young, Brad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135Deb, Pranab . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26DeBeer, Chris . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .60Deepwell, David . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .177, 210Deeter, Merritt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181DeGrandpré, Jean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181Deng, Qiang . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126Denman, Kenneth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159DeRepentigny, Patricia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .94Derksen, Chris . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95, 137, 191Desjardins, Serge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .89Dewey, Richard 98, 99, 109, 119, 172, 217deYoung, Brad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .219Dibike, Yonas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81Dickinson, Suzanne . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142Ding, Qinghua . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14, 50Dinniman, Michael . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25Doblas-Reyes, Francisco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92Donohoe, Aaron . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44Dou, Juan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
Drevillon, Marie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85Drummond, James . . . . . 149, 161, 163, 181�183,
220Duck, Tom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171Dudley, Dennis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22Dueymes, Guillaume . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35Dumont, Dany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117, 173Dupont, Frédéric . . . . . . . 63, 64, 117, 130DuVivier, Alice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23, 25, 96Dyhrman, Sonya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
EEhlert, Dana . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57Eisenman, Ian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15, 138El-Jabi, Nassir . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207Elliott, Scott . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .121Elvidge, Andy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197Evans, Wayne . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .58
FFekri, Majid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53, 112, 188Filion, Anna-Belle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33Fillion, Luc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65, 89Fisel, Brandon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25, 96Fissel, David . . . . . . . 5, 141, 144, 195, 196Fitzpatrick, Noel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .221Flato, Gregory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23, 79Fleetwood, Rick . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28, 37Flesch, Tom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151Flowers, Gwenn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178, 179Flynn, Connor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169Fogal, Pierre . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182Fogt, Ryan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14, 48, 213Foord, Vanessa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12, 199Foreman, Michael . . . . . . . . . . . 65, 87, 108Forest, Alexandre . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143, 212Fortier, Louis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120, 143Fortin, Vincent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52Frigon, Anne . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35Fu, Yunfei . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200Fuller, Alexander . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132Funke, Bernd . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46Fyfe, John . . . . . . . . 23, 46, 49, 50, 79, 146
GGabersek, Sasa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24, 91
Gachon, Philippe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35Gadian, Alan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31Gagné, Marie-Éve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79Gagnon, Stéphane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55Gaitan Ospina, Carlos . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11Gallant, Ailie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50Galy, Valier . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214Gao, Jianyun . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190Garand, Louis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111, 149Garcia Quintana, Yarisbel . . . . . . . . . . 156Garnett, Ray . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154Garric, Gilles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63, 89, 130Gauthier, Nathalie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52Gelderloos, Renske . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42Gemmrich, Johannes . . . . . . . . 70, 71, 217Geng, Lantao . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120, 220Geng, Lei . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50Genthon, Christophe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124Gerber, Edwin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25Geshelin, Yuri . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157Ghent, Darren . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137Gi, Nayeob . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164Gilbert, Adrien . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178Gilbert, Denis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156Gillard, Laura . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178Gille, John . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .181Gillett, Nathan . . . . . . . . . . .58, 78�80, 192Girard, Claude . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32Glovin, Grant . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .206Goergens, Chad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14Goessling, Helge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92Goldblatt, Colin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167Goldstein, Michael . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128Goodison, Barry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214Goodman, Stephen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124Goodson, Ron . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .61, 102Gordon, Neil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92Gosselin, Michel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120Gough, William . . . . . . . . .20, 29, 128, 206Grachev, Andrey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193, 216Gramann, Uwe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187Grant, Nick . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145Greenberg, David . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85Grisouard, Nicolas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41Grivault, Nathan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
Grypma, David . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199Guarente, Bryan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27Gutowski, William . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25, 96Gyakum, John . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101Gyakum, John . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194
HHaas, Christian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72, 142Haigh, Susan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .87Haine, Thomas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132Hakim, Gregory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .113Halverson, Mark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108, 173Hamilton, Jim . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76Hamman, Joseph . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23, 163Hamme, Roberta . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .156, 159Han, Guoqi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133, 135Hannah, Charles 65, 85, 87, 108, 109, 172Harper, Scott . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70Harris, Chris . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89Hata, Yukie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .117Hatcher, Matthew . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .75Hausmann, Ute . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165Hawkins, Barbara . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .146Hawthorne, Iain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145Hay, Alex . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .75, 98, 99Hayes, Jack . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186He, Jinhai . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126He, Zhongjie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63Hebert, David . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24, 91Heesemann, Martin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217Heillette, Sylvain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .111Helmus, Jonathan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .204Hendricks, Stefan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142Henry, Greg . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145Heo, Joonghyeok . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78Herber, Andreas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171Hernandez, Fabrice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85Hesaraki, Sareh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171Higginson, Simon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64, 130Hines, Keith . . . 25, 31, 92, 111, 113, 192Hocking, Wayne . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .164, 209Holdsworth, Amber . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166Holl, Gerrit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183Holland, David . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25Holland, Marika . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4, 92
Holt, Ben . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70Holt, Jason . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89Holtslag, A.A.M . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124Horton, Simon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33Hosking, Scott . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26, 197Howard, Rosie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44, 196Howatt, Tara . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219Howell, Stephen . . . . . . . 95, 137, 139, 210Hryniw, Natalia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .113Hsieh, William . . . . . . . . . .54, 81, 150, 197Hu, Nan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151Hu, Xianmin . . . . 116, 131, 155, 178, 218Huang, Lin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46Huard, David . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13Hudak, David . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .189Hughes Clarke, John . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75Hughes, Chris . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .157Hughes, Mimi . . . 23, 25, 73, 96, 161, 193Hunke, Elizabeth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23, 121Husain, Syed Zahid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52Hutchings, Jennifer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
IIanson, Debby . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160Ibarguchi, Gabriela . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40Intrieri, Janet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73, 193Irwin, Robert . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215Isaac, George . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124Islam, Mo Rokibul . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201Islam, Siraj ul . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82, 153Ivanescu, Liviu . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171Iversen, Trond . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
JJ. Merry�eld, William . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201Jackson, Jennifer . . . . . . . . . . 144, 159, 196Jamieson, Bruce . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33Jassal, Rachhpal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145Je�ery, Nicole . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .121Je�ries, Martin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70Jerreat-Poole, Haven . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207Jin, Yi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24, 91Joe, Paul . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21Johannessen, Sophia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160Johnson, Cheryl-Ann . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83Johnson, Helen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42
Johnson, Mark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145Johnston, Diane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89Johnston, Lauren . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200Johnston, Paul . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .162Jones, Dylan B.A. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149Jones, Megan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213Jouan, Caroline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122Juhasz, Tamas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172Jung, Jenny Hayon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203Jung, Thomas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92Juniper, Kim . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109Jutras, Mathilde . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
KKahn, Ralph . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170Kato, Seiji . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184Keller, Linda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20Ketler, Rick . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145, 207Khaliq, M.N. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198Khandekar, Madhav . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154Kharin, Slava . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23Khouider, Boualem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126Kim, Baek-Min . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78Kim, Hyung-Jin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .50Kim, Seong-Joong . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78Kim, Soyeon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213Kim, Yeon-Hee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .78King, John . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31, 94Kirchgaessner, Amelie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31Klebe, Stephanie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92Klinck, John . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25Klymak, Jody . . . 159, 172, 175, 176, 205Kochtubajda, Bob . . . . . . . . . . . 22, 61, 102Kohfeld, Karen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67Kollias, Pavlos . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204Konopleva-Akish, Elena . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216Kostov, Yavor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165Krassovski, Maxim . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .108Kristiansen, Jorn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .52Kristo�ersen, Samuel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164Krogh, Jeremy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98, 119Kumar, Sanjiv . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62, 192Kuo, William . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113Kuo, Ying-Hwa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111Kurz, Werner . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146Kushner, Paul . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
LL'Ecuyer, Tristan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168Lagerquist, Ryan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22Laliberté, Frédéric . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139Langlois, Alexandre . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83Laprise, René . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35Latornell, Doug . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65, 86Lazzara, Matthew . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20Le Moigne, Patrick . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124Leaitch, Richard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46LeBlanc, Samuel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169LeBlond, Paul . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39Leduc, Martin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56Lee, Carmen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181Lee, Jong-Ho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213Lee, Sung-Ching . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145, 207Lefaivre, Denis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18Lehner, Susanne . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .70, 71Lei, Ji . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64Lemieux, Jean-François . 63, 89, 116, 117Leon, Luis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158Leroyer, Sylvie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33Lesins, Glen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163Leung, Andrew . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20, 29Leung, Kinson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206Levasseur, Maurice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120Lewis, Huw . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89Li, Cuihua . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95Li, Jiangnan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .46, 101, 150Li, Jiaxing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64Li, Yanping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61, 102, 208Li, Zhan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53, 112Lilly, Jonathan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .165Lima, Aranildo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54, 150Lin, Hai . . . . . . . . . 105, 106, 127, 154, 190Lin, Hui-Chuan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111, 113Lin, Ying-Tsong . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .75Lindsay, Ron . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142, 211Linton, Hayley . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81Liu, Anthony . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .61, 102Liu, Jane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203Liu, Jie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65Liu, Zheng . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211Liu, Zhiquan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111, 113Loder, John . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155, 157
Lohmann, Gerald . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28Lourenço, Antonio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72Lowings, Malcolm . . . . . . . . . 143, 144, 212Lu, Wanjun . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220Lu, Youyu . . . . . . .63, 64, 85, 87, 130, 202Luijting, Hanneke . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52Lundgren, Je� . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32Lynch, Amanda . . . . . . . . . . . . 39, 128, 206
MMa, Zhimin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133Macdonald, Robie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160Machuca, Idalia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65, 86Macoun, Paul . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172Macpherson, Stephen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111Madec, Gurvan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72Mahmood, Rashed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46Majda, Andrew . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126Maksym, Ted . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70Manson, Alan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .164Mao, Yiwen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .107Marcil, Sarah . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205Mariani, Zen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45Marko, John . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195Marsh, Wil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21Marshall, John . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .165Marshall, Shawn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180, 219Martin, Bruce . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .74Martin, Randall . . . . . . . . . . . 149, 171, 181Martinez de la Torre, Alberto . . . . . . . . 89Martinez, Manuel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211Martinez, Yosvany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104Maslowski, Wieslaw . . . . . . 23, 25, 96, 163Masud, M.B. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .198Matte, Pascal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133Matthews, Damon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56Matthews, Robin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219Mauger, Guillaume . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113McCrimmon, Craig . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158McCusker, Kelly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49McElroy, Tom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149McFarquhar, Greg . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170McGillicuddy, Dennis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119McIlhattan, Elin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168McLennan, Donald . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214
McLinden, Chris . . . . . . . . . . . . .8, 149, 181McTaggart-Cowan, Ronald . . . . . . 32, 111Meek, Chris . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164Meier, Walter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138Mekis, Eva . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12Melling, Humfrey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72, 144Menard, Richard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181Menelaou, Dr. Konstantinos . . . . . . . . 103Menelaou, Konstantinos . . . . . . . . . . . . .104Menounos, Brian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .221Merkens, Markus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .145, 207Merry�eld, William . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23Metzger, E. Joseph . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115Miao, Nan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187Mihaly, Steve . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109, 172, 217Mikolajczyk, David . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20Milbrandt, Jason A. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122Miller, Nathaniel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .170Millero, Frank . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17Mills, Catrin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49Min, Seung-Ki . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78Mittermeier, Richard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182Modzelewski, Henryk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44Molteni, Franco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105Monahan, Adam . . . . . . . . 28, 78, 107, 166Mooney, Curtis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102Moore, Dan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22, 207Moore-Maley, Ben . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160Morales Maqueda, Miguel . . . . . . . . . . . 157Morin, Jean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .133Morin, Samuel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83Mudryk, Lawrence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137Mueller, Bennit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78Muncaster, Ryan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154Murdock, Trevor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11Murray, Maribeth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40Mussells, Olivia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210Myers, Paul . . . . 87, 116, 130, 131, 155, 156, 178,
218
NNachamkin, Jason . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24Nadeau, Louis-Philippe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19Naja�, Mohammad Reza . . . . . . . . . . . .192Namazi, Maryam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
Nassar, Ray . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .149Naveira Garabato, Alberto . . . . . . . . . . 175Neish, Michael . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198Nesic, Zoran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145, 207, 221Newton, Bob . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138Nichitiu, Florian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181Nicolas, Julien . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192Nievinski, Felipe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184Nijssen, Bart . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23, 25, 163Niu, Haibo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65, 87Nobre, Paulo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194Noer, Gunnar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52Noone, David . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170Norris, Joel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138
OO'Flaherty-Sproul, Mitchell . . . . . . . . . 109O'Neill, Norm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171Oh, Loren . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123Ohashi, Kyoko . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17Oke, Peter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85Olson, Elise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119Orr, Andrew . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26, 31, 197Osborne, Philip . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143, 212Osinski, Robert . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23, 25, 96Osman, Mohammed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203Ouellet, Félix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
PPage, Stephen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172Palter, Jaime . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205, 219Paquin, Dominique . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35Paquin, Jean-Philippe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130Paull, Georgina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103Pavolonis, Mike . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124Pawlowicz, Rich . . . 17, 65, 108, 173, 216PEARL, Science Team . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161Pedersen, Angulalik . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214Pellerin, Pierre . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89, 93, 133Peltier, W. Richard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176Pena, Angelica . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42Peng, Huiping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150Peng, Melinda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90Peng, Yiran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .146Pennelly, Clark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .116, 203Peralta-Ferriz, Cecilia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Perrie, Will . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70, 97Perro, Chris . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171Perroud, Marjorie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180Persson, Ola . . . . . . 73, 162, 168, 193, 216Peucker-Ehrenbrink, Bernhard . . . . . . 214Phelps, Michael . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115Phillips, Tony . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .197Pieters, Roger . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216Pimentel, Sam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179, 199Pizzolato, Larissa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95Plante, Mathieu . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71, 117Pleskachevsky, Andrey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71Poan, Emmanuel D. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35Polavarapu, Saroja . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .198Polyakov, Igor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79Polzin, Kurt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175Pomeroy, John . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60Popa, Vlad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123Posey, Pamela . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24, 91, 115Poulin, Francis . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41, 203, 215Prowse, Terry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81Prytherch, John . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162
QQaddouri, Abdesammad . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
RRadic, Valentina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221Radkevich, Alexander . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184Rajdev, Vinay . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40Ramos Musalem, Karina . . . . . . . . . . . . 158Rausch, John . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211Ravindran, AjayaMohan . . . . . . . . . . . . 126Read, Wolf . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .68Reader, Cathy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23Redemann, Jens . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169Rees, Tim . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166Regnier, Charly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85Reid, Elizabeth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169Remedios, John . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137Renfrew, Ian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94Reszka, Mateusz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63Reuten, Christian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32, 67Reuter, Gerhard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203Reverdin, Audrey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83Rex, John . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .38
Reynolds, Conor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145Richards, Agnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .83Richards, Bill . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37Richards, Clark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178Ritchie, C. Harold . . . . . . . 64, 65, 89, 116Ritter, Christoph . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171Roberts, Andrew . . . . . . . . .23, 25, 96, 163Robitaille, Julien . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18Roche, Sebastien . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198Rochon, Yves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149, 181Rochoux, Mélanie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93Rogers, Erick . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71Ronalds, Bryn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71, 194Ross, Ed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195Ross, Tetjana . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74Ross-Lazarov, Tsvet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27Rousset, Clément . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72Rowe, Penny . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45Roy, Francois . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .63, 64Ruckdeschel, Gennavieve . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74Russell, Iain . . . . . . . . . . . 53, 112, 187, 188Russell, Philip . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169Ryan, Andy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .85
SSadova, Louis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195Sadowy, Dawn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195Saitoh, Naoko . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .183Salchert, Kurt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9Salehipour, Hesam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176Salisbury, Dominic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162Sampei, Makoto . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143Santos, Marcelo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184Sastri, Akash . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98, 119, 172Sato, Mei . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98Saulter, Andrew . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89Sca�, Lucia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208Scheifele, Benjamin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215Schimnowski, Adrian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .214Schirmer, Michael . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33Schlosser, Peter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40Schmidt, K. Sebastian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169Schnorbus, Markus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62, 81Schreiber-Abshire, Wendy . . . . . . . . . . . . 27Schrems, Otto . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
Schweiger, Axel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115, 211Seagram, Annie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196Secretan, Yves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133Sedlar, Joseph . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162Seefeldt, Mark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25Segal-Rosenheimer, Michal . . . . . . . . . . 169Shan, Shiliang . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17, 134, 202Sharma, Aseem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60Sharma, Bunu . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16Sharma, Sangeeta . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46Shea, Joseph . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221Sheen, Katy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175Sheese, Patrick . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .46Shen, Hayley . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .70Sheng, Jinyu . . . . . . . 17, 87, 134, 135, 202Shephard, Mark W. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12Shepherd, Marianna . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164Shinozuka, Yohei . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .169Shore, Jennifer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .110Shrestha, Rajesh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62Shupe, Matthew . . . . . . 162, 168, 170, 204Sigmond, Michael . . . . . . . . . . . . .23, 49, 50Silis, Arvids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191Sills, David . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128Sioris, Chris . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149Siuta, David . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190Smedstad, Ole Martin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115Smith, Craig . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83, 214Smith, Gregory . . . . . . 63, 64, 85, 87, 89, 92, 117,
133Smith, Trevor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221Snau�er, Andrew . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197Sobie, Steve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11Solomon, Amy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73, 193Song, Shi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169Soontiens, Nancy . . . . . . . . . . . . 65, 86, 176Sotiropoulou, Georgia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162Soulard, Nicholas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106Soux, Andres . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32Souza, Ronald . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194Spacek, Lubos . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33Spinney, Jennifer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .38Stammerjohn, Sharon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70Stastna, Marek . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .177, 210Steele, Michael . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .142
Stegner, Alexandre . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .215Steig, Eric . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14, 50, 113Steiner, Nadja . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6Stern, Alon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19Stewart, Ronald . . . . . . . . . 21, 60, 61, 102Stockdale, Timothy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105Stojanovic, Vlado . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189Storer, Benjamin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .203Stoylen, Eivind . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52Straneo, Fiamma . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178Strang, Al . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32Straub, David . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .201Strong, Kimberly . . . . . . . . . . . 45, 183, 198Stuefer, Martin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204Stull, Roland . . . . . . . . . . . 29, 44, 190, 196Sui, Yi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17Sundstrom, Chris . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119Surcel-Colan, Dorina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63Sutherland, Terri . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108Svensson, Gunilla . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124Szeto, Kit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61, 102
TTaggart, Chris . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74Tang, Youmin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153Tao, Wei . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .200Tarasick, David . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203Tatusko, Renee . . . . . . . . . . . .186, 217, 218Taylor, Peter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53, 69Teakles, Andrew . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150Tedford, Ted . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108Tessema, Mekdes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221Thériault, Julie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61, 102Thiémonge, Nathalie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13Thomas, Leif . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41Thompson, Keith . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64, 65, 87Thomson, Jim . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70, 71Thomson, Richard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159Thomson, Rick . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217Thupaki, Pramod . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65, 109Timmermans, Mary-Louise . . . . . . . . . . . . 3Ting, Mingfang . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127Tison, Jean-Louis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72Tjernstrom, Michael . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162Todd, Spindler . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
Tokarska, Katarzyna . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58Tran, Sophie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45Tremblay, Bruno 47, 71, 94, 117, 138, 209Trishchenko, Alexander . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149Turkkan, Noyan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .207Turner, John . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26, 197
UUchida, Hiroshi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17Uttal, Taneil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216
VVail, Chris . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164Valipour, Reza . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110van der Kamp, Derek . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22van Der Watt, Lize Marie . . . . . . . . . . . . 40Vancoppenolle, Martin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72Veal, Karen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137Veland, Siri . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39Vieira, Mchael . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13Vincent, Lucie A. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12Virlinde, Hans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204Vitart, Frederic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105Vivier, Frederic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72Von Glasow, Roland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94von Salzen, Knut . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46, 150
WWagner, Till . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15Waite, Michael . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41Walden, Von . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45Walker, Anne . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191Walker, Kaley A. . . . . . . . . . . . 46, 149, 183Wallce, John . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50Wallcraft, Alan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115Wan, Di . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65, 108Wang, Aleck . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214Wang, Lei . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95, 127Wang, Pengcheng . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135Wang, Sheng-Hung . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31, 111Wang, Shouping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24, 91Wang, Wanqiu . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152Wang, Yanan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86Wang, Yuan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202Ward, William . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164Waterbury, John . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
Waterman, Stephanie . . . . . 165, 175, 215Watson, Sue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158Watt-Meyer, Oliver . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166Weaver, Andrew . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58, 195Webster, Stuart . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197Wee, Tae-Kwon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113Weeks, Mark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31, 197Weidner, George . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20Welhouse, Lee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20Wen, Gary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204Werner, Arelia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62, 146West, Greg . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44Whan, Kirien . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36Wheater, Howard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60, 198Whitcomb, Tim . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90Wiebe, Edward . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195Williams, Bill . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214Williams, Christopher . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .204Williams, James . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138Willis, Peter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159Willmot, Kathleen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211Wilson, Aaron . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111, 113Wilson, Greg . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .98Wilson, John . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .147, 151Winston, Herb . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22, 189Winter, Barbara . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33Wisthaler, Armin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170Wolf, Mitchell . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156Wong, Marco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32Wood, Wendy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219Woodgate, Rebecca . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15Wright, Melanie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209Wu, Qian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164Wu, Qigang . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .127Wu, Yongsheng . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17, 109Wu, Zhiwei . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105, 153
XXie, Huixiang . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120, 220Xu, Jinshan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76, 85, 86Xu, Zhigang . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
YYang, Daqing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208Yang, Song . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152Yao, Yonghong . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
Yashaev, Igor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205Yashayaev, Igor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155, 157Yau, M. K. Peter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102Yau, Man Kong . . . . . . . . . . . 103, 104, 191Yerubandi, Ram Rao . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158Yoo, Changhyun . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25You, LiJun . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190Younas, Waqar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .61Yu, Bin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106Yuan, Xiaojun . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95, 127Yurk, Harald . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .74
ZZaloga, Artem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216Zamora, Lauren . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .170
Zedel, Len . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76, 86, 99Zelenyuk, Alla . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170Zeng, Xubin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163Zhai, Li . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64, 202Zhang, Jing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200Zhang, Jinlun . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115, 142, 152Zhang, Peng . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153Zhang, Shunli . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52Zhang, Xiangdong . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200Zhang, Xuebin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12, 61, 106Zickfeld, Kirsten . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57Ziemba, Luke . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170Zou, Jiansheng . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .181Zwiers, Francis . . . . . . . . . . .36, 78, 79, 192
