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Project Approach

Project 

Reliabi l i ty 

Approach 

Ronald SchopSr. Reliability Engineer 

www.weibull.nl

November 2003

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Project Approach2

Act iv i t ies  

Historical InformationField Performance

Targets / Baseline

Risk Analysis

Focus on “HOT” Items 

Reliability Growth

FRACAS

Reliability Forecast

PAST 

NOW 

GOAL

RISKS 

FOCUS 

CONTROL

CORRECT 

FORECAST 

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Project Approach3

His tor ical In form at ion 

Gather Information of Previous Designs:• Field Problems Solved

• Quality Problems from the Past

• Failures discovered at Testing

• Production Problems

BEST POSSIBLE Risk Analysis Input

 Avoid BOOBY TRAPS from the past.

If there is no Previous Design available, use the data from a similar 

Component or System … ... 

Lessons Learned … ... 

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Project Approach4

Field Perfo rmance 

Warranty 

Reliability 

Durability 

R&M Costs 

Where are we Now … ... 

Gather Performance Indicators of Current Design:

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Project Approach5

Targets / Basel ine 

Decide if a LOAD CYCLE DIAGRAM 

measurement / definition is required.

Where to GO to … ... 

Define the specific System / ComponentRELIABILITY TARGET and WARRANTY

TARGET 

Create a System / Component BASELINE,including Targets and clear User Profiles

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Project Approach6

   S  y  s   t  e  m

    F  a   i   l  u  r  e   R   A   T   E

Time

System Bathtub Curve

Warranty and Reliab i l i ty Targets 

Warranty Reliability Durability

R&M Costs

Show the Difference ... 

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Sample Combined Target Plo t Combined Warranty & Reliability Target 

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Risk Analys is 

General Risk Prediction Analysis Simultaneous Engineering Teams

Identify all Risks

Define Activities

 Assign Risk Reduction Values per Activity 

FMEA on Design & Process Detailed Risk Analysis where required 

FTA - Fault Tree Analysis For Safety Issues and Complex Systems 

What are the RISKS … ... 

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Focus on “HOT” Items 

FMEA’s will give additional focus.

RVP (Reliability Validation Plan) 

 – Objective % Confidence gained per planned Activity.

 – Shows “Uncovered Failure-Modes” & “Overkill’s” 

 – Shows contribution (%C) per Activity. – Cost Effective Testing / Activity Plan.

Derive the “HOT” Items from GRPA Use “Gut Feeling” too … ... ! 

Objectivity and Focus ... 

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Rel iab i l ity Grow th 

General Risk Reduction Plan

 – Keep track of ALL Risks identified

Crow-AMSAA Validation Testing Monitoring

 – Development Process Monitoring

 – Reliability Growth and Tracking – Forecast Reliability Performance

RVP’s Realisation in Time

 – Milestone settings / Checkpoints

Weibayes for significant Components

Weibull “IF” Failures occur… ... 

Control Growth-Process … ... 

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FRACAS  

 ALL failures to report to the

Failure Review Board (FRB)

FRB to address each issue to appropriate

Person / Department.

FRB makes sure that proposed change is indeed

an improvement / solution.

Correct and Control … ... 

Failure Report And Corrective Action System 

There are no INCIDENTS!

Each Failure is the beginning of a Trend... The “I - Word” … … 

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Single Failure-Modes

With Failures: OLD / NEW Testing Results: Weibull Analysis

Field Failure Forecast

No Failures: RVP or Weibayes Analysis

Minimal Field Failure Forecast

Reliab i l i ty Forecas t  

Systems 

Crow-AMSAA Analysis Forecast System Reliability using Instantaneous

mode.

Forecast … ... 

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SUMMARY  

We have the medicine,we just have to take it !  

We have the DATAPrevious problems

We have the TOOLS

GRPA; FMEA; FTA; RVP; etc.

We have the METHODS

FRB; Weibull; Crow-AMSAA

PAST 

NOW 

GOAL

RISKS 

FOCUS 

CONTROL

CORRECT 

FORECAST