Project report on Factor Affecting Stock market Volatility

8/6/2019 Project report on Factor Affecting Stock market Volatility

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Factor Affecting Stock Market Volatility

A

GRAND PROJECT

ON

FACTOR AFFECTING STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY

Submitted to

GIDC Rajju Shroff Rofel Institute Of Management Studies

In requirement of partial fulfillment of

Masters of Business Administration (MBA)

2 year full time Program of Gujarat Technological University

Submitted on:

Submitted by:

PRITESH A. MAPARA

DHANRAJ B. GEDIYA

Batch No.: 2009 - 11

1Gidc Rajju Shrof Rofel Institute Of Management Studies


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PREFACE

A project report on stock market is being prepared in attempts to interpret in-depth study of

volatility in Indian stock market. This report helps us to understand various terminologies in

stock market. This report gave me opportunity to have complete idea about volatility in stock

market. This gave me idea about technical and fundamental analysis in stock market and how

trading is being done in stock market. This project report helps in following aspects,

Build understanding of central ideas and theories of stock market.

Develop familiarity with the analysis of stock market.

Furnish institutional material relevant for understanding the environment in which

trading decisions are taken.

This project will guide to investors for an investment in stock market. This project Deployed a

lot time for collections of information from various sources. This project will be very helpful to

know volatility from January 2006 to December 2006 and reasons for such high volatility and

would be able to take decisions for investment in volatile stock market.

DECLARATION



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I hereby declare that the dissertation Factor Affecting Stock Market Volatility submitted for

the MBA Degree at Gujarat Technological Universitys GIDC Rajju Shrof Rofel Institute Of

Management Studies, is my original work and the dissertation has not formed the basis for theaward of any degree, associate ship, fellowship or any other similar titles.

Place: Vapi Signature of Students

Date:

CERTIFICATE



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This is to certify that the dissertation entitled Factor Affecting Stock Market Volatility is the

research work carried out by Mr. Pritesh A. Mapara and Mr. Dhanraj B. Gediya student of MBA,

at GIDC Rajju Shrof Rofel Institute Of Management Studies during the year 2009 -2011, in

partial fulfillment of the requirements for the of the Degree of MBA and that the dissertation has

not formed the basis for the award previously of any degree, diploma, associate ship, fellowship

or any other similar title.

Date:

Place: Signature of the Director Sir

It is certified that the work mentioned above is carried out under my guidance.

Date:

Place: Signature of the faculty guide

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT



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Practical knowledge is required in every field. Only theoretical knowledge is not important the

practical knowledge is essential. In this type of project work important to management student.

In the training period there is vital opportunity to study the practical approach.

In the first place, we thank Professor Dinesh Kapadia for having given us their valuable guidance

for the project. Without their help it would have been impossible for us to complete the project.

Place: Vapi Signature of the student.

Date:

EXCUTIVE SUMMARY

Stock market is an avenue for growth of earnings. This project includes how broking is being

done in stock market. It involves stock market analysis such as fluctuations in Sensex reasons for



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fluctuations in stock market, fluctuations in stock market and reasons for the same. Stock market

has been the best avenue for investment in securities since last 10 years. Mostly future and

option trading was the worst trading in stock market in these sessions. I have covered various

sessions for analysis from April 2006 to March 2011. In these sessions, stock market was most

volatile so that I have covered various analyses with most affected factors to the global market. I

have made analysis of Sensex which made of 30 Shares. In this project, I have included most

gainer period and most loser period with reasons for the same. I also included comparison

between Bond yields and foreign investments by foreign investors.

Chapter 1

Introduction to project

Stock exchanges to some extent play an important role as indicators, reflecting the

performance of the country's economic state of health. Stock market is a place where securities

are bought and sold. It is exposed to a high degree of volatility; prices fluctuate within minutes



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and are determined by the demand and supply of stocks at a given time. Stockbrokers are the

ones who buy and sell securities on behalf of individuals and institutions for some commission.

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) is the authorized body, which regulates the

operations of stock exchanges, banks and other financial institutions.

The past performances in the capital markets especially the securities scam by Harshad

Mehta has led to tightening of the operations by SEBI. In addition the international trading and

investment exposure has made it imperative to better operational efficiency. With the view to

improve, discipline and bring greater transparency in this sector, constant efforts are being made

and to a certain extent improvements have been made. As the condition of capital markets are

constantly improving, it has started drawing attention of lot more people than before. On the

career related aspects, professionals have opportunities to choose from for a wide range of jobs

available in a number of organizations in this sector and one can expect to have good times

ahead of him.

1.1 INDIAN CAPITAL MARKET OVERVIEW

1.1.1 Evolution

Indian Stock Markets are one of the oldest in Asia. Its history dates back to nearly 200 years ago.

The earliest records of security dealings in India are meager and obscure. The East India

Company was the dominant institution in those days and business in its loan securities used to be



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transacted towards the close of the eighteenth century. Thus, at present, there are totally twenty-

one recognized stock exchanges in India excluding the Over The Counter Exchange of India

Limited (OTCEI) and the National Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSEIL).

1.1.2 Trading Pattern of the Indian Stock Market

Trading in Indian stock exchanges is limited to listed securities of public limited companies.

They are broadly divided into two categories, namely, specified securities (forward list) and non-

specified securities (cash list). Equity shares of dividend paying, growth-oriented companies

with a paid-up capital of at least `50 million and a market capitalization of at least `100 million

and having more than 20,000 shareholders are, normally, put in the specified group and the

balance in non-specified group. Two types of transactions can be carried out on the Indian stock

exchanges:(a) Spot delivery transactions "for delivery and payment within the time or on the date stipulated

when entering into the contract which shall not be more than 14 days following the date of the

contract

(b) Forward transactions "delivery and payment can be extended by further period of 14 days

each so that the overall period does not exceed 90 days from the date of the contract". The latter

is permitted only in the case of specified shares. The brokers who carry over the outstanding pay

carry over charges (cantango or backwardation), which are usually determined by the rates of

interest prevailing. A member broker in an Indian stock exchange can act as an agent, buy and

sell securities for his clients on a commission basis and also can act as a trader or dealer as a

principal, buy and sell securities on his own account and risk, in contrast with the practice

prevailing on New York and London Stock Exchanges, where a member can act as a jobber or a

broker only. The nature of trading on Indian Stock Exchanges are that of age old conventional

style of face-to-face trading with bids and offers being made by open outcry. However, there is a

great amount of effort to modernize the Indian stock exchanges in the very recent times.

1.1.3 Over The Counter Exchange of India (OTCEI)

The traditional trading mechanism prevailed in the Indian stock markets gave way to many

functional inefficiencies, such as, absence of liquidity, lack of transparency, unduly long

settlement periods and benami transactions, which affected the small investors to a great extent.

To provide improved services to investors, the country's first ring less, scrip less, electronic stock



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exchange - OTCEI - was created in 1992 by country's premier financial institutions - Unit Trust

of India, Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation of India, Industrial Development Bank of

India, SBI Capital Markets, Industrial Finance Corporation of India, General Insurance

Corporation and its subsidiaries and Can Bank Financial Services. Trading at OTCEI is done

over the centers spread across the country. Securities traded on the OTCEI are classified into:

Listed Securities - The shares and debentures of the companies listed on the OTC can be

bought or sold at any OTC counter all over the country and they should not be listed

anywhere else

Permitted Securities - Certain shares and debentures listed on other exchanges and units

of mutual funds are allowed to be traded

Initiated debentures - Any equity holding at least one-lakh debentures of particular scrip

can offer them for trading on the OTC.

OTC has a unique feature of trading compared to other traditional exchanges. That is, certificates

of listed securities and initiated debentures are not traded at OTC. The original certificate will be

safely with the custodian. But, a counter receipt is generated out at the counter, which substitutes

the share certificate and is used for all transactions. In the case of permitted securities, the system

is similar to a traditional stock exchange. The difference is that the delivery and payment

procedure will be completed within 14 days. Compared to the traditional Exchanges, OTC

Exchange network has the following advantages:

OTCEI has widely dispersed trading mechanism across the country, whichprovides

greater liquidity and lesser risk of intermediary charges.

Greater transparency and accuracy of prices is obtained due to the screenbased scrip less

trading.

Since the exact price of the transaction is shown on the computer screen, the investor

gets to know the exact price at which s/he is trading.

Faster settlement and transfer process compared to other exchanges.

In the case of an OTC issue (new issue), the allotment procedure is completed in a month

and trading commences after a month of the issue closure, whereas it takes a longer

period for the same with respect to other exchanges.

Thus, with the superior trading mechanism coupled with information transparency investors are

gradually becoming aware of the manifold advantages of the OTCEI.



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1.1.4 National Stock Exchange (NSE)

With the liberalization of the Indian economy, it was found inevitable to lift the Indian stock

market trading system on par with the international standards. On the basis of the

recommendations of high-powered Pherwani Committee, Industrial Development Bank of India,

Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation of India, Industrial Finance Corporation of India,

all Insurance Corporations, selected commercial banks and others incorporated the National

Stock Exchange in 1992. Trading at NSE can be classified under two broad categories:

Wholesale debt market and

Capital market.

Wholesale debt market operations are similar to money market operations-institutions and

corporate bodies enter into high value transactions in financial instruments such as government

securities, treasury bills, public sector unit bonds, commercial paper, certificate of deposit, etc.

There are two kinds of players in NSE:

Trading members and

Participants.

Recognized members of NSE are called trading members who trade on behalf of themselves and

their clients. Participants include trading members and large players like banks who take direct

settlement responsibility. Trading at NSE takes place through a fully automated screen-based

trading mechanism, which adopts the principle of an order-driven market. Trading members can

stay at their offices and execute the trading, since they are linked through a communication

network. The prices at which the buyer and seller are willing to transact will appear on the

screen. When the prices match the transaction will be completed and a confirmation slip will be

printed at the office of the trading member. NSE has several advantages over the traditional

trading exchanges. They are as follows:

NSE brings an integrated stock market trading network across the nation. Investors can

trade at the same price from anywhere in the country since inter-market operations are

streamlined coupled with the countrywide access to the securities.

Delays in communication, late payments and the malpractices prevailing in the

traditional trading mechanism can be done away with greater operational efficiency and

informational transparency in the stock market operations, with the support of total

computerized network.



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Unless stock markets provide professionals service to small investors, and foreign investors will

not be interested in capital market operations. And capital market being one of the major sources

of long-term finance for industrial projects, India cannot afford to damage the capital market

path. In this regard NSE gains vital importance in the Indian capital market system

.

1.1.5 Bombay Stock Exchange(BSE) Sensex

For the premier Stock Exchange that pioneered the stock broking activity in India, 128 years of

experience seems to be a proud milestone. A lot has changed since 1875 when 318 persons

became members of what today is called "The Stock Exchange, Mumbai" by paying a princely

amount of `1. Since then, the country's capital markets have passed through both good and bad

periods. The journey in the 20th century has not been an easy one. Till the decade of eighties,

there was no scale to measure the ups and downs in the Indian stock market. The Stock

Exchange, Mumbai (BSE) in 1986 came out with a stock index that subsequently became the

barometer of the Indian stock market. SENSEX is not only scientifically designed but also based

on globally accepted construction and review methodology. First compiled in 1986, SENSEX is

a basket of 30 constituent stocks representing a sample of large, liquid and representative

companies. The base year of SENSEX is 1978-79 and the base value is 100. The index is widely

reported in both domestic and international markets through print as well as electronic media.

The Index was initially calculated based on the "Full Market Capitalization" methodology but

was shifted to the free-float methodology with effect from September 1, 2003. The "Free-float

Market Capitalization" methodology of index construction is regarded as an industry best

practice globally. All major index providers like MSCI, FTSE, STOXX, S&P and Dow Jones use

the Free-float methodology. Due to is wide acceptance amongst the Indian investors; SENSEX is

regarded to be the pulse of the Indian stock market. As the oldest index in the country, it

provides the time series data over a fairly long period of time (From 1979 onwards). Small

wonder, The SENSEX has over the years become one of the most prominent brands in the

country. The growth of equity markets in India has been phenomenal in the decade gone by.

Right from early nineties the stock market witnessed heightened activity in terms of various bull

and bear runs. The SENSEX captured all these events in the most judicial manner. One can

identify the booms and busts of the Indian stock market through SENSEX.



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1.1.6. BSEs Turn over for last five years:



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Chapter 2

Literature Review

Macroeconomic Factors and Stock Market: Literature Review

Aman SrivastavaJaipuria Institute of Management

June 11, 2009

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1417785

Abstract:

The movement and volatility in stock markets often reflect the direction of any economy. The

available literature suggests that since the inception of stock markets researchers are making

attempts to establish relationship between change in macroeconomic factors

and stock market returns. From the literature review, the study has seen that asset-pricing

theories do not specify the fundamental macroeconomic factors that affect securities prices.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of change in macroeconomic factors

on stock market. In this paper the study has done a literature review and finally has concluded

the relevance of macroeconomic factors for stock markets. The findings of the study conclude


Year Buy (` In Crore) Sell(` In Crore) Net(` In Crore)

2006-07 1,243,150.29 1,252,592.08 -9,441.75

2007-08 2,451,354.20 2,447,910.17 3,444.04

2008-09 1,742,959.82 1,748,542.87 -5,583.11

2009-10 1,317,669.53 2,184,954.48 45,915.44

2010-11 1259249.6 1,970,448.27 22922.96
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=377509http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1417785http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1417785http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=377509


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that the stock markets are very well affected by certain macroeconomic factors which may be

local or international. The findings of the literature review suggests that the major

macroeconomic factors relatively more affecting the stock market in long run are industrial

production; inflation, foreign exchange rate, money supply and interest rate.

Chapter 3

Objective of study:-

3.1To study volatility in Indian stock market while taking SENSEX of Bombay stock

exchange as a source of secondary data which broadly represent Indian stock market.

3.2 To study the factors which are making Indian stock market volatile.

3.3 To furnish institutional material relevant for understanding the environment in which

stock market fluctuation are occurring.



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Chapter 4

Research Methodology:-

Sources of data:

Data used in this study is of secondary in nature. Sensex is taken as a source of information

which widely describes Indian stock market. Here monthly prices of BSE Sensex, Inflation, IIP

numbers are taken for the study purpose.

Hypothesis:

This is the exploratory research which tries to shows the factors which are making stock market

volatile.

1. Any fluctuation in foreign market has more effect on Indian stock market than that of

domestic market.

2. In the given volatile economic conditions, the market is efficient to any news and

information.

`



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Chapter 5

Scope:

5.1 This study can be used by investors, traders and other professionals as a supplement to their

own research.

5.2 This study can be used to individual who are at initial stage of investment in stock market.

5.3 To different Organization who provides tips for Buying and Selling shares.

5.4 To review market forecast provided by the organization about fluctuation in the market.



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Chapter 6

Data Analysis and Interpretation

For the month of April 2006

Date Open High Low Close

3-Apr-06 11342.96 11579.1 11342.96 11564.36

4-Apr-06 11599.8 11710.69 11570.11 11638.01

5-Apr-06 11671.14 11755.2 11653.39 11746.9

7-Apr-06 11845.13 11930.66 11564.87 11589.44

10-Apr-06 11620.38 11691.92 11535.28 11662.55

12-Apr-06 11693.15 11702.77 11302.78 11355.73

13-Apr-06 11366.91 11380.83 11008.43 11237.23

17-Apr-06 11323.74 11560.9 11323.74 11539.68

18-Apr-06 11624.97 11834.77 11624.97 11821.57

19-Apr-06 11880.05 11986.09 11799.62 11895.98

20-Apr-06 11941.49 12053.74 11866.21 12039.55



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21-Apr-06 12053.9 12102 11860.35 12030.3

24-Apr-06 12063.73 12071.07 11882.48 11915.24

25-Apr-06 11943.08 11953 11621.61 11646.78

26-Apr-06 11677.05 11965.09 11635.4 11938.53

27-Apr-06 11968.8 12086.91 11803.49 11835.02

28-Apr-06 11698.68 11877.32 11344.61 11851.93

Analysis

In starting of financial year market was opened at 11,342 points and closed at 11,851 points at

the end of the month. This month market was crossed 12,000 mark and made all time high

12,102 on 21st & all time low 11,008 on 13th.

Reasons

Increased in crude oil prices.

Financial Results of Indian corporate.

FIIs positive response in Financial Results.

FIIs positive response in 3rd week than average buying and selling.



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For the month of May 2006


2-May-06 12103.78 12288.51 12103.78 12218.78

3-May-06 12231.12 12337.01 12134.19 12310.72

4-May-06 12358.31 12482.91 12264.14 12347.63

5-May-06 12373.47 12443.54 12304.59 12359.7

8-May-06 12393.22 12511.07 12393.22 12462.47

9-May-06 12488.38 12546.47 12356.04 12513.86

10-May-06 12546.93 12624.37 12530.98 12612.38

11-May-06 12631.54 12671.11 12397.02 12435.41

12-May-06 12400.71 12421.76 12224.44 12285.11

15-May-06 12272.64 12272.64 11770.76 11822.2

16-May-06 11861.18 11954.51 11378.96 11873.73

17-May-06 11962.87 12238.81 11962.87 12217.81

18-May-06 12163.98 12163.98 11330.45 11391.43

19-May-06 11549.67 11697.11 10799.01 10938.61

22-May-06 11071.63 11142.9 9826.91 10481.77

23-May-06 10590.67 10859.2 10185.48 10822.78

24-May-06 10830.98 11000.96 10504.59 10573.15

25-May-06 10520.9 10720.67 10274.93 10666.32



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26-May-06 10735.14 11050.77 10735.14 10809.35

29-May-06 10855.03 10992.38 10781.61 10853.14

30-May-06 10886.61 10988.23 10722.92 10786.63

31-May-06 10679.49 10679.49 10111.96 10398.61

Analysis

In this may market opened 300 points up than the last trading day of the April. But after that

market was decline by every day and go down 10,000 points on 22nd May. This month market

made all time high 12,670 on 10th May and all time low 9,827 on 22nd May. On 31st May market

closed at 10,398 points which was 1500 points less than the previous month closing.

Reasons

FIIs were selling more than the buying

Crude oil price declining

Kerala and Bengal election



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For the month of June 2006


1-Jun-06 10472.46 10597.23 10017.82 10071.42

2-Jun-06 10104.57 10477.35 10011.45 10451.33

5-Jun-06 10537.08 10552.38 10186.33 10213.48

6-Jun-06 10087.96 10192.73 9884.89 9957.32

7-Jun-06 9919.28 10051.81 9609.21 9756.76

8-Jun-06 9664.9 9664.9 9200.8 9295.81

9-Jun-06 9270.78 9849.2 9262.2 9810.46

12-Jun-06 9858.47 9859.38 9428.03 9476.15

13-Jun-06 9360.06 9360.06 8993.58 9062.65

14-Jun-06 9156.97 9387.06 8799.01 8929.44

15-Jun-06 9133.36 9582.97 9092.16 9545.06

16-Jun-06 9703.06 10118.28 9703.06 9884.51

19-Jun-06 9903.11 10049.94 9755.21 9997.84

20-Jun-06 9958.33 9958.33 9745.17 9822.52

21-Jun-06 9797.87 10054.05 9757.54 10040.14

22-Jun-06 10093.38 10362.74 10093.38 10275.88

23-Jun-06 10201.31 10453.61 10025.19 10401.3

26-Jun-06 10427.85 10451.47 9991.12 10042.06

27-Jun-06 10058.29 10224.26 9902.33 10151.01



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28-Jun-06 10067.55 10204.66 9909.76 10129.7

29-Jun-06 10193.94 10326.05 10109.56 10162.16

30-Jun-06 10316.12 10626.84 10316.12 10609.25

Analysis

In this month market was opened at 10,472 points. This month investors were losing hope for the

good return in first fortnight when market touched 8,799. This month market movement was

1800 to 2000 points. This month market made all time high at 10,626 points on last trading day

of the month and gave closed above 10,000 points.

Reasons

FIIss selling presser in first fortnight and buying presser in second fortnight

Increased in crude prices

Increased Inflation rate

Good expectation of Q1 results



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For the month of July 2006


3-Jul-06 10646.5

6

10729.9

2

10589.4

6

10695.26

4-Jul-06 10755.4

5

10800.1

1

10644.7

2

10662.22

5-Jul-06 10641.3

3

10940.4

5

10611.3

5

10919.64

6-Jul-06 10836.4

9

10839.5

3

10703 10767.97

7-Jul-06 10813.7

5

10887.6

7

10440.0

2

10509.53

10-Jul-06 10484.2

5

10704.7

8

10461.7

3

10684.3

11-Jul-06 10699.6

2

10699.6

2

10566.7

1

10614.35

12-Jul-06 10604.6

4

10939.6

8

10549.8

5

10930.09

13-Jul-06 10922.6

1

10922.6

1

10797.4

9

10858.5

14-Jul-06 10782.9

8

10782.9

8

10563.7

6

10678.22

17-Jul-06 10647.2

6

10647.2

6

10262.5

7

10293.22

18-Jul-06 10336.6

2

10406.4

3

10149.8

5

10226.78

19-Jul-06 10320.5

9

10406.2

1

9972.73 10007.34

20-Jul-06 10247.8

7

10409.5

8

10225.1

8

10352.94

21-Jul-06 10336.3

8

10336.3

8

10035.2

4

10085.91

24-Jul-06 9881.03 10252.7 9875.35 10215.37



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5

25-Jul-06 10351.7

5

10443.0

5

10323.7

7

10415.61

26-Jul-06 10465.3

4

10648.7

7

10362.6

1

10617.27

27-Jul-06 10671.7

7

10762.6

7

10589.6

8

10741.59

28-Jul-06 10787.6

5

10787.6

5

10603.8

3

10680.23

31-Jul-06 10759.1

9

10853.9

1

10710.2

9

10743.88

Analysis

Market was stable whole of the month. Market movement was 1000 points of this month. Market

tried to crossed 11,000 but closed at 10,939 points on 12 th which was all time high of this month.

Market gave positive close at the end of the month than the opened on very first day.

Reasons

Rice in the crude oil price

Rumor of resigning of our Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh.

Weak global markets concern

Healthy result given by Indian major companies

RBI hiked interest rate but not affect heavily on market



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For the month of August 2006


1-Aug-06 10737.5 10777.47 10646.65 10751.66

2-Aug-06 10747.13 10891.38 10730.13 10876.19

3-Aug-06 10955.27 11081.9 10875.87 10923.16

4-Aug-06 10951.81 11039.34 10810.04 10866.51

7-Aug-06 10863.28 10869.66 10780.01 10812.64

8-Aug-06 10839.53 11028.02 10839.53 11014.97

9-Aug-06 10990.73 11187.65 10943.83 11145.18

10-Aug-06 11175 11213.03 11051.75 11149.17

11-Aug-06 11181.34 11241.11 11069.25 11192.46

14-Aug-06 11221.86 11330.3 11221.86 11312.99

16-Aug-06 11384.05 11507.92 11384.05 11448.31

17-Aug-06 11498.47 11551.59 11379.44 11477.48

18-Aug-06 11507.14 11508.17 11409.11 11465.72

21-Aug-06 11488.03 11531.6 11375.9 11511.68



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22-Aug-06 11547.42 11619.86 11460.93 11502.62

23-Aug-06 11579.92 11579.92 11374.86 11406.65

24-Aug-06 11367.74 11566.89 11297.23 11531.95

25-Aug-06 11589.35 11635.25 11542.1 11572.2

28-Aug-06 11583.73 11633.35 11552.44 11619.52

29-Aug-06 11651.96 11739.77 11651.96 11706.85

30-Aug-06 11735.05 11756.08 11643.38 11723.92

31-Aug-06 11754.07 11794.43 11675.08 11699.05

Analysis

Sensex opened at 10,737 and make the low of 10,646 on that day itself. With making

high of 11,794 on the last trading day of the month.Sensex closed at 11,700. Sensex was in

positive 1000 than last months closing.

Reasons

US Federal Reserves decision to hold interest rates steady at old level(5.25%).

Fall in crude price.



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For the month of September 2006


1-Sep-06 11699.57 11795.02 11666.01 11778.02

4-Sep-06 11824.49 11939.96 11824.49 11914.215-Sep-06 11927.42 11945.53 11847.93 11904.6

6-Sep-06 11908.53 11983.48 11904.92 11933.21

7-Sep-06 11893.33 11921.3 11815.43 11853.85

8-Sep-06 11859.44 11940.58 11825.22 11918.65

11-Sep-06 11959.56 11971.6 11505.6 11550.69

12-Sep-06 11564.95 11671.64 11445.19 11660.79

13-Sep-06 11723.78 11938.41 11723.78 11893.79

14-Sep-06 11936.8 12002.94 11892.24 11973.02

15-Sep-06 11977.69 12041.7 11847.61 12009.59

18-Sep-06 12006.19 12114.95 12006.19 12071.3

19-Sep-06 12103.44 12152.6 11915.21 11970.47



28/154


20-Sep-06 11946.32 12128.99 11833.61 12109.14

21-Sep-06 12167.91 12285.9 12167.91 12274.27

22-Sep-06 12244.41 12303.42 12170.2 12236.78

25-Sep-06 12257.27 12273.45 12145.09 12173.91

26-Sep-06 12206.79 12331.45 12160.58 12321.19

27-Sep-06 12359.01 12442.82 12339.98 12366.91

28-Sep-06 12388.66 12431.79 12340.17 12380.74

29-Sep-06 12414.66 12485.17 12381.29 12454.42

Analysis

Sensex opened at 11699.57 and make the low of 11,445 on 12th September. With making

the high of 12,485 on the last trading day Sensex closed at 12,454.

Reasons

Crude oil price dropped to the five month lower.

Strong support from US and European Economy.

IIP rose to 12.4 per cent

Appreciation of Rupee Value.

Expectation of Short interest rate remains unchanged.



29/154


For the month of October 2006


3-Oct-06 12473.79 12489.28 12343.8 12366.39

4-Oct-06 12401.09 12419.65 12178.83 12204.01

5-Oct-06 12299.21 12415.97 12299.21 12389.41

6-Oct-06 12391.26 12434.22 12357.96 12372.81

9-Oct-06 12335.82 12429.74 12261.49 12365.83

10-Oct-06 12416.43 12481.93 12341.34 12363.77

11-Oct-06 12446.72 12514.18 12301.51 12353.49

12-Oct-06 12387.89 12558.71 12315.02 12537.98

13-Oct-06 12632.62 12756.23 12632.62 12736.42

16-Oct-06 12785.03 12953.76 12785.03 12928.18

17-Oct-06 12981.53 12994.45 12819.35 12883.83

18-Oct-06 12886.33 12920.59 12830.84 12858.48

19-Oct-06 12881.8 12925.6 12654.98 12723.59



30/154


20-Oct-06 12756.41 12849.02 12679.85 12709.4

23-Oct-06 12757.31 12766.3 12612.36 12623.28

26-Oct-06 12636.16 12718.31 12636.16 12698.41

27-Oct-06 12741.85 12921.23 12741.85 12906.81

30-Oct-06 12925.43 13039.3 12844.85 13024.26

31-Oct-06 13048.76 13075.85 12907.94 12961.9

Analysis

Market opened at 12,473 points p 3 rd Oct. and closed at 12,961 on 31st Oct. Market made its all

time low at 12,178 points at 4 th Oct. and all time low at 13,075 points on last trading day of the

month which was good sign for the investors. Market movement was 600 to 800 points of this

month. This month market crossed 13,000 points which was made history of Sensex life. It took

135 days for Sensex to move from 12,000 to 13,000 and 123 days to move from 12,500 to

13,000.

Reasons

"The 8 per cent GDP growth rate and the remarkable corporate performance had

contributed to the rally in the stock markets,"

The BSE Bankex was up 1.9 per cent at 6,517.85.

The BSE Midcap Index ended at 5,422.63 up 26.36 points or 0.5 per cent.

Heavy buying led by FIIs and mutual funds thus market was touched 13,000 level



31/154


For the month of Nov 2006


1-Nov-06 12992.62 13050.73 12937.3 13033.04

2-Nov-06 13062.52 13137.74 13014.65 13091.12

3-Nov-06 13119.34 13146.86 13017.84 13130.79

6-Nov-06 13155.11 13206.87 13113.39 13186.89

7-Nov-06 13208.79 13300.69 13135.21 13156.66

8-Nov-06 13176.08 13202.68 12950.57 13072.51

9-Nov-06 13107.78 13192.89 13069.85 13137.49

10-Nov-06 13187.51 13303.85 13104.98 13282.91

13-Nov-06 13295.24 13410.08 13287.28 13399

14-Nov-06 13439.71 13486.74 13380.77 13425.5

15-Nov-06 13476.28 13506.08 13390.79 13469.37

16-Nov-06 13500.7 13588.01 13459.28 13505.89

17-Nov-06 13678.04 13678.04 13383.43 13429.48

20-Nov-06 13390.95 13463.06 13200.36 13430.71

21-Nov-06 13434.58 13630.41 13434.58 13616.77



32/154


22-Nov-06 13625.09 13740.39 13625.09 13706.53

23-Nov-06 13667.13 13790.82 13643.47 13680.83

24-Nov-06 13669.81 13767.85 13665.52 13703.33

27-Nov-06 13716.46 13799.02 13716.46 13773.59

28-Nov-06 13690.67 13691.12 13577.38 13601.95

29-Nov-06 13649.2 13711.76 13586.04 13616.73

30-Nov-06 13630.9 13745.16 13630.61 13696.31

Analysis

In this month market opened at 12,992 points on 1st Nov. and that day market made its all time

low of this month. Market movement in this month was 1000 to 1200 points. This month market

made its all time high at 13,799 points on 27 th Nov. and gave closed at 13,696 points on the last

trading day of this month.

Reasons

FIIs positive impact on market

Previous month created good impact



33/154


For the month of Dec 2006


1-Dec-06 13729.6

7

13857.8

1

13725.7

8

13844.78

4-Dec-06 13846.7

1

13912.5

4

13828.9 13874.33

5-Dec-06 14028.4

7

14028.4

7

13905.6

5

13937.65

6-Dec-06 13951.0

9

14035.3 13847.6

7

13949

7-Dec-06 13962.9

4

14002.7

2

13915.7

4

13972.03

8-Dec-06 14007.6

7

14009.5

6

13756.8

6

13799.49

11-Dec-06 13783 13801.9

8

13261.7

3

13399.43

12-Dec-06 13413.6

1

13492.2

1

12801.6

5

12995.02

13-Dec-06 13039.0

2

13223 12830.3

8

13181.34



34/154


14-Dec-06 13256.8

1

13524.7

7

13239.7

9

13487.16

15-Dec-06 13545.6 13669.6

5

13545.6 13614.52

18-Dec-06 13695.6 13744.17

13416.4 13731.09

19-Dec-06 13737.3

6

13748.6

2

13237.3

9

13382.01

20-Dec-06 13452.6

9

13568.0

9

13232.5

6

13340.21

21-Dec-06 13313.9

1

13441.3

6

13182.3

5

13384.86

22-Dec-06 13398.1

3

13493.8

8

13362.1

1

13471.74

26-Dec-06 13501.4

4

13726.6

2

13490.7

7

13708.34

27-Dec-06 13734.0

1

13911.5

9

13734.0

1

13859.69

28-Dec-06 13893.2

9

13960.3

9

13819.7

7

13846.34

29-Dec-06 13873.0

3

13929.1 13770.0

6

13786.91

Analysis

In Dec, Market opened at 13,729 on 1 st Dec. and closed at 13,786 on 29th Dec. Above this judge

that this month market stable at the opening situation. In this month market movement was 1200



35/154


to 1300 points. The Sensex on December 5, 2006 crossed the 14,000-mark to touch 14,028

points which was created new milestone. Overall this month was good for investor.

Reasons

The market was broken by the RBI decision to hike in CRR

Tata and CSN for acquiring Corus resulted in 2.77 per cent decline in the share price of

Tata Steel. ( Bidding)

Both FIIs and MFs were net sellers to the tune of `333 crore and `1,305 crore,

respectively.

For the month of Jan 2007


2-Jan-07 13827.7

7

13980.5

4

13797.4

4

13942.24



36/154


3-Jan-07 13969.4

5

14035.6

7

13897.4

2

14014.92

4-Jan-07 14029.0

4

14060.3

5

13850.3

8

13871.71

5-Jan-07 13768.79

13971.82

13763.39

13860.52

8-Jan-07 13855.8

9

13855.8

9

13599.8

7

13652.15

9-Jan-07 13650.9

6

13748.4

2

13493.3

8

13566.33

10-Jan-07 13569.5

7

13569.5

7

13336.5

2

13362.16

11-Jan-07 13331.3

8

13667.8 13303.2

2

13630.71

12-Jan-07 13729.0

7

14070.8

8

13729.0

7

14056.53

15-Jan-07 14110.4

4

14202.1

2

14103.1

2

14129.64

16-Jan-07 14146 14211.1

5

14070.6

5

14114.73

17-Jan-07 14116.2

5

14185.1

2

14089.6

3

14131.34

18-Jan-07 14165.7

7

14325.9

2

14140.3

5

14217.75

19-Jan-07 14271.2

4

14300.1

1

14067.5

2

14182.71

22-Jan-07 14217.8 14259.0

7

14111.7

5

14209.24

23-Jan-07 14212.1

2

14212.1

2

14025.7

4

14041.24

24-Jan-07 14069.6

1

14156.4

6

14043.5

4

14110.46

25-Jan-07 14151.6 14307.1 14115.4 14282.72



37/154


2 9

29-Jan-07 14306.9

7

14316.5

4

14185.9

2

14211.96

31-Jan-07 14219.3

8

14269.3

1

14045.6

1

14090.92

Analysis

In this month open as previous trend at 13,827 points on 2

nd

Jan. achieving new milestone.Market made all time high at 14,325 points 18th on Jan. and made all time low at 13,303 points

on 11th June. Market gave closed at 14090 points on last trading days of the months.

Reasons

This bullish had supported by FIIs and Mutual Funds.

Successful IPO ( Parsvnath Developers and Sobha Developers)

Third Quarter result



38/154


For the month of Feb 2007


1-Feb-07 14124.36 14278.08 14109.91 14267.18

2-Feb-07 14293.11 14462.77 14293.11 14403.77

5-Feb-07 14432.09 14526.51 14372.36 14515.9

6-Feb-07 14541.24 14564.8 14452.78 14478.19

7-Feb-07 14493.56 14663.26 14478.45 14643.13

8-Feb-07 14690.58 14697.69 14523.16 14652.09

9-Feb-07 14684.35 14723.88 14493.67 14538.9

12-Feb-07 14529.28 14529.28 14146.22 14190.7

13-Feb-07 14168.33 14363.74 13957.7 14090.98

14-Feb-07 13990.41 14036.61 13805.36 14009.9

15-Feb-07 14107.09 14372.96 14107.09 14355.55

19-Feb-07 14406.88 14479.18 14372.07 14402.9

20-Feb-07 14449.23 14466.76 14230.47 14253.38

21-Feb-07 14199.07 14312.88 14157.72 14188.49

22-Feb-07 14200.11 14287.03 13978.05 14021.31



39/154


40/154


For the month of March 2007


1-Mar-07 13013.7

4

13193.1

3

12861.3

5

13159.55

2-Mar-07 13139.1 13254.03

12836.75

12886.13

5-Mar-07 12716.8

5

12716.8

5

12344.4

4

12415.04

6-Mar-07 12573.0

1

12760.2

2

12427.1

3

12697.09

7-Mar-07 12792.9 12902.1

8

12390.4

6

12579.75

8-Mar-07 12649.77

13099.83

12596.86

13049.35

9-Mar-07 13107.3

7

13145.7

2

12788.1

6

12884.99

12-Mar-07 12916.6

7

13056.8

6

12844.9

9

12902.63

13-Mar-07 12924.5 13026.8

5

12817.6

2

12982.98

14-Mar-07 12694.36

12694.36

12504.1 12529.62

15-Mar-07 12655.9

4

12789.8

1

12510.7

5

12543.85

16-Mar-07 12570.5

2

12638.7

8

12316.1 12430.4



41/154


19-Mar-07 12484.6

4

12655 12426.6

6

12644.99

20-Mar-07 12746.9

4

12798.8 12674.7

7

12705.94

21-Mar-07 12735.91

12964.94

12664.33

12945.88

22-Mar-07 13071.8

1

13326.2

4

13071.8

1

13308.03

23-Mar-07 13343.5

7

13386.9

5

13196.9 13285.93

26-Mar-07 13345.7

3

13345.7

3

13090.8 13124.32

28-Mar-07 13034.2

7

13035.5

6

12861.1

8

12884.34

29-Mar-07 12862.5

3

13004.4 12832.6

9

12979.66

30-Mar-07 13018.2

1

13111.8

7

12984.1

3

13072.1

Analysis

In March 2007, Market open at 13013.74 on 1st March and close at 13072.1 on 30stMarch which

indicated that there was big movement on first day and last day of the month. In this month

market was open at low than previous week of last month. In this month market was 13386.95 all

time high on 23rd march of this month and 12316.1 all time low on 16 th march. Market movement

900to1000 points in March. In first week of March market was fall because of some changes in

Budget 2007-08.

Reason



42/154


US markets remained quiet this fortnight with DOW maintaining overall stagnancy over

the period having several ups and downs during the period which affected the Indian

economy very much.

RIL in effort to become global player in the petrochemicals would be signing MoU with

Dow chemical, the second largest chemical company in the world.

Getting strong turbulence from the US markets, the market is supposed to remain volatile

in this last fortnight before the end value buying in fundamentally strong counters, if

market corrects itself to the attractive levels.



2-Apr-07 12811.93 12811.93 12425.52 12455.37

3-Apr-07 12503.75 12657.75 12481.86 12624.58

4-Apr-07 12691.24 12835.36 12691.24 12786.77

5-Apr-07 12791.6 12899.31 12711.5 12856.08

9-Apr-07 12904.85 13194 12904.85 13177.74

10-Apr-07 13236.2 13236.2 13075.48 13189.54



43/154


11-Apr-07 13221.76 13294.9 13161.21 13183.24

12-Apr-07 13127.86 13160.15 13030.87 13113.81

13-Apr-07 13163.02 13421.05 13119.88 13384.08

16-Apr-07 13479.49 13708.4 13479.49 13695.58

17-Apr-07 13733.18 13755.76 13581.04 13607.04

18-Apr-07 13602.9 13762.92 13602.9 13672.19

19-Apr-07 13538.71 13658.11 13423.64 13619.7

20-Apr-07 13684.95 13915.62 13684.95 13897.41

23-Apr-07 13972.81 14046.52 13879.39 13928.33

24-Apr-07 13893.72 14197.32 13850.07 14136.72

25-Apr-07 14141.7 14238.29 14052.17 14217.77

26-Apr-07 14273.17 14383.72 14127.18 14228.88

27-Apr-07 14219.25 14219.25 13884.53 13908.58

30-Apr-07 13823.4 13901.12 13693.59 13872.37

Analysis

In April, First fortnight market taking strong position in first half but bear took firm grip again in

the latter week. In 2st April market was opened at 250 points down than previous month closing

and market moves 1500 to 1800 points. This month market so volatile but finally markets close

on 13872.37 which was 700 points high than the previous month closing. Sensex lost around 400

points in last two day of second week.

Reasons

Market downtrend was led by the banking and IT stocks mainly. There is fear of

decrease in credit demand if the lending rates rise further which dipped the banking



44/154


stock. IT declined on the grounds of reduced US exports earnings due to appreciation in

Rupee prices against Dollar.

In this month Rupee was touched its seven year high level of 43.01 against Dollar which

is a big concern for the IT sector as well the export oriented companies their export as

well the earnings may witness fall.

Market bled heavily in the aftermath of the RBI decision to hike the CRR and Rapo rate

as result Sensex reached at a six months low level going down by 616 points.



3-May-07 13987.77 14107.06 13987.77 14078.21

4-May-07 14129.89 14189.21 13912.92 13934.27

7-May-07 14044.71 14067.07 13861.38 13879.25

8-May-07 13886 13956.4 13741.24 13765.46

9-May-07 13707.86 13806.37 13612.04 13781.51

10-May-07 13823.36 13976.79 13745.23 13771.23

11-May-07 13691.86 13864.18 13562.95 13796.16

14-May-07 13954.41 14026.02 13924.02 13965.86



45/154


15-May-07 13948.91 14023.86 13885.46 13929.33

16-May-07 13949.81 14159.36 13936.88 14127.31

17-May-07 14217.36 14352.98 14217.36 14299.71

18-May-07 14261.47 14337.06 14201.01 14303.41

21-May-07 14414.83 14451.3 14384.61 14418.6

22-May-07 14458.48 14483.59 14348.26 14453.72

23-May-07 14490.03 14500.64 14325.89 14363.26

24-May-07 14344.7 14389.66 14174.05 14218.11

25-May-07 14073.61 14364.95 14046.06 14338.45

28-May-07 14467.85 14527.47 14368.4 14397.89

29-May-07 14418.98 14530.15 14372.07 14508.21

30-May-07 14501.46 14576.37 14379.21 14411.38

31-May-07 14451.31 14573.81 14448.57 14544.46

Analysis

On 1st May market was opened around 100 points high than previous month closing. In this

month market moved almost up rally. All time high of this month was 14576 on 30 th may and all

time low was 13562 on 11th may. So this month market movement was around 2000 points. This

month closing same as previous month 700 points high than April. At first fortnight market

gained 312 points led by Ril which hit its all time high.

Reasons

Strong results especially by the IT companies like results especially by the IT companies

like Wipro and Satyam which performed above par.

Globally, the Dow in the US, after crossing the 13,000 level, moved forward slowly and

steadily, barring a few weak movements.



46/154


The fortnight also witnessed increased political heat on account of the UP elections. The

BSP appears to be headed towards majority and is likely to form the government on its

own. The Congress has emerged a poor fourth and the ouster of Mulayam Singh

government may affect the market sentiments.

Favorable monetary policy declared by RBI this affect on Banking stock and finally

market closed above 14000.

For the month of June 2007


1-Jun-07 14610.28 14682.1 14539.89 14570.75

4-Jun-07 14618.78 14683.36 14465.68 14495.77

5-Jun-07 14514.2 14571.31 14432.67 14535.01

6-Jun-07 14551.53 14590.82 14234.07 14255.93

7-Jun-07 14195.84 14362.58 14139.09 14186.18

8-Jun-07 14063.94 14229.22 14010.61 14063.81

11-Jun-07 14170.81 14268.91 14057.63 14083.41

12-Jun-07 14122.33 14153.44 13946.99 14130.95

13-Jun-07 14139.92 14152.79 13968.38 14003.03



47/154


14-Jun-07 14087.91 14219.24 14087.91 14203.72

15-Jun-07 14277.61 14326.55 14112.53 14162.71

18-Jun-07 14241.76 14283.71 14057.26 14080.14

19-Jun-07 14088.58 14315.18 14058.79 14295.5

20-Jun-07 14359.96 14449.38 14347.58 14411.95

21-Jun-07 14415.56 14526.44 14406.67 14499.24

22-Jun-07 14508.63 14560.32 14441.76 14467.36

25-Jun-07 14469.43 14521.62 14424.71 14487.72

26-Jun-07 14478.75 14560.48 14478.75 14501.08

27-Jun-07 14520.19 14520.19 14407.12 14431.06

28-Jun-07 14498.05 14537.04 14435.24 14504.57

29-Jun-07 14589.52 14663.25 14574.45 14650.51

Analysis

On 1st day market gained 170 points supported from the Banking stock. In this month market

movement was 500 to 600 points. In this month market was continuously up rally. This monthmarket created 14683 points all time high on 4th June and 13946 points all time low on 12th June

of this month. Then rest of trading days market closing above 14000 points.

Reasons

Banking stocks SBI and PNB leading the rally. These stocks boomed on the speculation

that RBI would roll back the recent interest rate hike.

GDP growth rate touched an 18-year peak of 9.4 per cent during 2006-07.

Double digit growth in manufacturing and service sectors. L&T came out with very good

quarterly numbers showing high growth of infrastructure and construction industry.

Offloading of stocks by FIIs was also a reason behind the fall. It was due to the interest

rate hike by the European Central Bank to six year high of 4 per cent.



48/154


Interestingly, Midcap and Small-cap witnessed growth of 0.26 per cent and 1.33 per cent

respectively despite the fall in the Sensex in general.

For the month of July 2007


2-Jul-07 14685.16

14745.97

14638.88

14664.26

3-Jul-07 14720 14828.3

9

14720 14806.51

4-Jul-07 14868.1

4

14906.9

3

14790.7

5

14880.24

5-Jul-07 14932.5

3

14963.2

6

14731.2

2

14861.89

6-Jul-07 14843.43

15007.22

14826.56

14964.12

9-Jul-07 15018.7

1

15085.2

2

15005.4

7

15045.73

10-Jul-07 15100.1 15114.9 14966.4 15009.88



49/154


3 5

11-Jul-07 14948.1

5

15015.3

5

14829.5

5

14910.62

12-Jul-07 14963.5

3

15112.2

2

14963.5

3

15092.04

13-Jul-07 15216.8

3

15330.7

3

15216.8

3

15272.72

16-Jul-07 15295.0

3

15341.3

8

15239.4

1

15311.22

17-Jul-07 15357.6 15440.2 15272.4

6

15289.82

18-Jul-07 15296.0

6

15325.7

8

15160.2

7

15301.17

19-Jul-07 15357.3

8

15593.3

1

15357.3

8

15550.13

20-Jul-07 15625.6

3

15683.0

3

15524.6

8

15565.55

23-Jul-07 15560.5

7

15773.3

7

15477.9

1

15732.2

24-Jul-07 15802.1

9

15868.8

5

15742.3

2

15794.92

25-Jul-07 15711.8

7

15771.2

6

15572.9

8

15699.33

26-Jul-07 15768.2

8

15812.2

7

15654.4 15776.31

27-Jul-07 15487.7

6

15495.5

1

15159.6

8

15234.57

30-Jul-07 15278.0

3

15451.8

1

15135.2

5

15260.91

31-Jul-07 15358.6

9

15568.8

5

15224.8

2

15550.99



50/154


Analysis

In this month market situation was boomed. In this month market was crossed 15000 points on

6th July and very next day market was opened at above 15000 points. And after that market was

up trend rest of the days. Looking at First fortnight's market movement, the Sensex had gone up

close to 500 points. All time high was 15868 points on 24 th July and all time low 14720 points on

very early 2nd July of this month. The last day of the month market was closed at 15550 points

and this indicated that market was boomed period from last three months.

Reasons

The market is likely to remain upbeat, with inflation losing steam and weathermen

putting out a positive monsoon forecast for July. The market has got a major boost from the strong global indices as well as the huge

inflow of foreign money.

Vishal retail and DLF were listed on the bourses and Vishal hit `800 during the trading

hours.

Dow crossed 14000 gaining more than 300 points. Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng

too went up by 270 and 680 points respectively.

Last fortnight saw huge inflow of FII money aggregating to `9724 crore. If we look at the

year-to-date figure this stands at close to `38000 crore, an indication of the increased

confidence of foreign investors in Indian economy. And they were invested in DLF and

ICICI Bank IPO.

For the month of Aug 2007



51/154




52/154


Analysis

On very first

trading day

market opens at

200 points

down. This

month market

was very

volatile with

1600 to 1800

market

movement. In

first fortnight

the market was

volatile 600 to

800 points. Butmarket was

crashed 200 to

300 points. BSE

Sensex fell 650

points on

August 16,

marking its

second-biggest

plunge in

history. On the

whole, the last

fortnight saw a

decline of 1000



1-Aug-07 15344.0

2

15344.0

2

14910.5

2

14935.7

7

2-Aug-07 15022.8

7

15134.5

3

14896.4

7

14985.7

3-Aug-07 15061.1

3

15235.5

1

15061.1

3

15138.4

6-Aug-07 14892.6 14928.8 14705.5

8

14903.0

3

7-Aug-07 15038.0

3

15142.0

4

14901.8

3

14932.7

7

8-Aug-07 15088.0

7

15340.2

4

15088.0

7

15307.9

8

9-Aug-07 15452.4

4

15542.4 15062.1 15100.1

5

10-Aug-07 14674.9

2

14901.3

1

14570.8

9

14868.2

5

13-Aug-07 14965.6

5

15044.7

4

14869.1

5

15017.2

1

14-Aug-07 15066.7

1

15069.6

4

14964.6

6

15000.9

1

16-Aug-07 14584.9

2

14584.9

2

14345.0

3

14358.2

1

17-Aug-07 14309.3

7

14318.5

6

13779.8

8

14141.5

2

20-Aug-07 14512.2

8

14680.0

9

14406.9

1

14427.5

5

21-Aug-07 14512.1

9

14534.5

1

13941.9

3

13989.1

1

22-Aug-07 14055.4 14281.4

8

13870.7 14248.6

6

23-Aug-07 14458.3

3

14554.9

3

14128.7

2

14163.9

8

24-Aug-07 14237.2 14455.4 14163.6 14424.8


53/154


points. This months market all time high was 15542 points on 9 th and all time low 13705 points

on 6th. Market created its high and low in first 10 days. Finally end of the month market gave

close 15318 points close 31st Aug. which 200 points low than the last months closing.

Reasons

Japanese yen become strongest and dollar and euro also become strongest. This might

affected in sell out by FIIs in emerging nation including India.

RBI sought to contain the liquidity by increasing the CRR by 50 basis points. Thus Bank

cut its deposit rate.

FIIs pumped more money into the market this time. They remained net buyers to the tune

of` 1,500 crore.

Ambuja cement offered to buy the share at `154 each. SBI announced merger with one of the associates State Bank of Saurastra.

For the month of Sep 2007


3-Sep-07 15401.99 15427.16 15323.05 15422.05

4-Sep-07 15482.13 15521.48 15389.62 15465.4

5-Sep-07 15535.35 15580.86 15407 15446.15



54/154


6-Sep-07 15383.18 15637.74 15350.18 15616.31

7-Sep-07 15655.37 15716.06 15565.22 15590.42

10-Sep-07 15413.58 15626.28 15363.53 15596.83

11-Sep-07 15668.4 15698.98 15506.1 15542.77

12-Sep-07 15608.5 15661.44 15486.81 15505.36

13-Sep-07 15547.66 15650.14 15547.66 15614.44

14-Sep-07 15713.66 15824.65 15568.36 15603.8

17-Sep-07 15664.74 15726.06 15467.46 15504.43

18-Sep-07 15547.07 15691.88 15468.8 15669.12

19-Sep-07 15940.79 16335.3 15940.79 16322.75

20-Sep-07 16341.55 16415.88 16261.36 16347.95

21-Sep-07 16352.32 16616.84 16308.09 16564.23

24-Sep-07 16697.89 16869.64 16599.66 16845.83

25-Sep-07 16890.75 16928.02 16676.98 16899.54

26-Sep-07 16969.45 17073.87 16887.07 16921.39

27-Sep-07 17059.61 17188.4 17018.56 17150.56

28-Sep-07 17152.31 17361.47 17152.31 17291.1

Analysis

In this month market was gave good return to the investors. Sensex again reached near to its

highest point on September 7. This month market movement was above 2000 points. In thismonth market crossed 16000 points on 19th Sep. and 17000 on 27th Sep. Points. After 18th Sep.

market continuously up rally by each day. Sep. 2007, market created its all time high 17361

points on last trading day of the month 28th Sep. and all time low 15323 points on very first

trading day of the month.



55/154


Reasons

Sensex gained 100 points as the power counters like NTPC and BHEL moved up before

the Power Grid IPO\

Auto moved up just a per cent while bankex and capital goods have grown by two percent each. IT slipped again by three per cent as the Rupee has become stronger.

For the month of Oct 2007


1-Oct-07 17356.99

17425.34

17144.58

17328.62

3-Oct-07 17467.4

1

17953.0

7

17288.4

1

17847.04

4-Oct-07 17799.6

3

17890.4

9

17494.7 17777.14



56/154


5-Oct-07 17831.6

8

17979.1

8

17708.8 17773.36

8-Oct-07 17901.9

4

17982.5

9

17322.1

4

17491.39

9-Oct-07 17402.24

18327.42

17287.19

18280.24

10-Oct-07 18473.4

3

18703.6

7

18436.9

9

18658.25

11-Oct-07 18696.6

2

18832.6

5

18536.9

7

18814.07

12-Oct-07 18794.6

3

18844.6

2

18336 18419.04

15-Oct-07 18525.6

1

19095.7

5

18525.6

1

19058.67

16-Oct-07 19102.9

3

19174.4

5

18777.7

5

19051.86

17-Oct-07 18037.9 18841.2

9

17307.9 18715.82

18-Oct-07 18827.4

6

19198.6

6

17771.1

6

17998.39

19-Oct-07 18031.7

7

18031.7

7

17226.1

8

17559.98

22-Oct-07 17259.6

5

17704.8

3

17171.4

5

17613.99

23-Oct-07 17910.3 18542.4

1

17910.3 18492.84

24-Oct-07 18727.9 18832.4

9

18317.1

7

18512.91

25-Oct-07 18519.2

3

18900.1 18459.5

1

18770.89

26-Oct-07 18823.6

6

19276.4

5

18629.5

3

19243.17

29-Oct-07 19621.3 20024.8 19621.3 19977.67



57/154


9 7 9

30-Oct-07 20103.4

4

20238.1

6

19694.8

5

19783.51

31-Oct-07 19827.4 19984.1

3

19735.2

1

19837.99

Analysis

In October, Sensex was all time high in history. Sensex crossed 18,000, 19000, and 20000 on 9 th,

15th and 29th October respectively. In this month market movement was 3000 points. Market

created its all time low at 17,171 ON 22nd Oct. and all time high 20,238 on 30th Oct. This month

market closed at 19837 points on 31 st Oct. which was indicated gained of 2000 points than the

last month.

Reasons

Diwali festival

Second quarter result

Buying presser of FIIs



58/154


For the month of Nov 2007


1-Nov-07 20130.23 20204.21 19634.47 19724.35

2-Nov-07 19364.61 20025.63 19255.77 19976.23

5-Nov-07 20009.35 20009.35 19502.45 19590.78

6-Nov-07 19689.79 19919.34 19337.85 19400.67

7-Nov-07 19552.53 19678.5 19249.47 19289.83

8-Nov-07 19110.4 19209.91 18917.4 19058.93

9-Nov-07 19282.7 19329.57 18737.22 18907.6

12-Nov-07 18640.52 18815.11 18333.21 18737.27

13-Nov-07 18681.1 19210.48 18636.21 19035.48

14-Nov-07 19336.96 19987.71 19336.96 19929.06

15-Nov-07 19947.72 19967.08 19723.2 19784.89

16-Nov-07 19603.09 19838.03 19472.51 19698.36

19-Nov-07 19895.49 19971.44 19583.97 19633.36

20-Nov-07 19510.94 19714.22 19196.42 19280.8

21-Nov-07 19197.57 19218.88 18515.3 18602.62

22-Nov-07 18724.11 18744.55 18182.83 18526.32

23-Nov-07 18737.22 18910.46 18548.06 18852.87



59/154


26-Nov-07 19171.25 19360.23 19137.66 19247.54

27-Nov-07 19128.86 19211.58 19019.33 19127.73

28-Nov-07 19316.76 19316.76 18884.2 18938.87

29-Nov-07 19290.67 19297.01 18930.31 19003.26

30-Nov-07 19136.12 19424.99 19006.89 19363.19

Analysis

In this month on first day market was opened at 300 points up than the last month of the day. Onthat day market created all time high 20,204 points. Market movement was 2000 points. First

fortnight market fell 1500 points than is was recovered day to day and closed at 19,363 on 30 th

Nov. Over all this month market was stable.

Reasons

RBI hiked the CRR by 50 basis points to 7.5 per cent.

On first fortnight major foreign market indices was fell around 4 per cent

FIIs roll as medium phase

High FIIs buying presser



60/154


For the month of Dec 2007


3-Dec-07 19547.09

19619.44

19446.68

19603.41

4-Dec-07 19707.5

9

19707.8

6

19482.3

4

19529.5

5-Dec-07 19628.8

5

19790.9

2

19560.6

8

19738.07

6-Dec-07 20018.1

7

20064.3

1

19716.5

7

19795.87

7-Dec-07 20063.5 20094.56

19706.43

19966

10-Dec-07 20074.9

2

20095.6

9

19834.0

1

19930.68

11-Dec-07 20049.3

5

20333.0

6

20019.3

4

20290.89

12-Dec-07 20197.4

4

20419.1

1

20045.4

2

20375.87

13-Dec-07 20498.11

20498.11

20065.63

20104.39

14-Dec-07 20108.0

9

20171.5

7

19936.4

9

20030.83

17-Dec-07 20032.6 20032.6 19177.1 19261.35



61/154


7 7 9

18-Dec-07 19339.1

4

19375.0

7

19009.3

5

19079.64

19-Dec-07 19255.3

9

19397.7

6

18886.4 19091.96

20-Dec-07 19210.2

2

19291.1

4

19097.7 19162.57

24-Dec-07 19308.2 19879 19308.2 19854.12

26-Dec-07 19940.9

6

20211.4

7

19896.6

1

20192.52

27-Dec-07 20301.0

5

20323.7

6

20159.7

3

20216.72

28-Dec-07 20158.1

2

20259.4

5

20022.8

8

20206.95

31-Dec-07 20323.2

8

20484.2

8

20239.6

3

20286.99

Analysis

In this month market was bouncing again. In first fortnight market was in an unbeaten mood.

Sensex crossed 20,000 points after one month. In this month market made all time low at 18,886

points on 19th Dec. and peak points at 20,498 on 13 th Dec. On last day of the market closed at

20,286 points.

Reason

Crude oil has already surpassed USD 100 per barrel.

No more impact of foreign market

FIIs medium buying and selling



62/154


For the month of Jan 2008


2-Jan-08 20393.1 20529.4

8

20077.4 20465.3

3-Jan-08 20383.0

3

20519.7 20293.8

7

20345.2

4-Jan-08 20367.9

4

20762.8 20367.9

4

20686.8

9

7-Jan-08 20637.2

1

20861.8

3

20438.1

9

20812.6

5

8-Jan-08 20970.0

7

21077.5

3

20696.6 20873.3

3

9-Jan-08 20903 21113.1 20701.4 20869.7



63/154


3 9 8

10-Jan-08 20930.2

8

21206.7

7

20530.0

7

20582.0

8

11-Jan-08 20702.9

4

20894.7

9

20505.8

1

20827.4

5

14-Jan-08 20918.2

3

20959.2

2

20661.9 20728.0

5

15-Jan-08 20836.4

7

20872.9

3

20203.6

3

20251.0

9

16-Jan-08 20079.8

9

20079.8

9

19513.2

5

19868.1

1

17-Jan-08 19972.7

5

20026.1

2

19643.7

6

19700.8

2

18-Jan-08 19579.6

1

19715.7

8

18930.4

2

19013.7

21-Jan-08 18919.5

7

18919.5

7

16951.5 17605.3

5

22-Jan-08 16884.0

9

17068.5

7

15332.4

2

16729.9

4

23-Jan-08 17520.0

2

17997.1

1

16951.0

3

17594.0

7

24-Jan-08 17920.9

8

18185.1 17070.0

5

17221.7

4

25-Jan-08 17504 18406.2

5

17504 18361.6

6

28-Jan-08 18011.8

9

18213.2

1

17443.2

9

18152.7

8

29-Jan-08 18346.4

9

18491.0

6

17927.9

2

18091.9

4

30-Jan-08 18120.2

2

18129.1

8

17683.5

1

17758.6

4

31-Jan-08 17810.1

3

18008.7

1

17417.6

3

17648.7

1



64/154


Analysis

In the month of January Sensex open at 20,393 and make high of 20,959 on 14 th Jan and low of

15,332. In third week the market was quite unusual volatile. The sharp and rapid rise in small

and mid cap shares. The difference between opening and closing was -5627. The main reason

behind this fall was subprime in the USA and The impact of these market development were so

severe that on January 15 and 16 Sensex lost almost 860 points on negative global cues. The

effect of subprime was more palpably evident on global market and across Asia. The

whole of January 2008 was dedicated to concerns of US recession and meltdown in the

world markets.

Reasons

The main reason behind the fall was subprime in the USA

In spite of good result of IT company market not sustain on top.

Poor listing of Reliance power.



65/154


For the month of Feb 2008


1-Feb-08 17820.6

7

18312.4 17534.9

6

18242.58

4-Feb-08 18496.0

3

18895.3

4

18447.2

5

18660.32

5-Feb-08 18592.5

8

18729.8

3

18509.5

4

18663.16

6-Feb-08 18247.03

18274.15

17936.01

18139.49

7-Feb-08 18198.6

8

18198.6

8

17492.2

8

17526.93

8-Feb-08 17610.0

7

17688.7

3

17203.0

6

17464.89

11-Feb-08 17427.3

4

17427.3

4

16457.7

4

16630.91

12-Feb-08 16812.63

16966.72

16565.48

16608.01

13-Feb-08 16816.9

4

17141.0

6

16725.6

8

16949.14

14-Feb-08 17265.1

9

17836.6

4

17265.1

9

17766.63

15-Feb-08 17541.1

7

18142.9

2

17445.0

5

18115.25

19-Feb-08 18215.26

18314.1 18018.48

18075.66

20-Feb-08 17991.2

9

17991.2

9

17505.5

6

17617.6

21-Feb-08 17825.2

2

17887.2

1

17482.3

1

17734.68



66/154


22-Feb-08 17503.0

4

17526.8 17347.2

6

17349.07

25-Feb-08 17523.8

1

17674.0

6

17137.9

9

17650.57

26-Feb-08 17799.56

17860.1 17678.74

17806.19

27-Feb-08 17983.4

2

18137.2

8

17770.6

5

17825.99

28-Feb-08 17810.5

2

17921.5

1

17690.1

6

17824.48

29-Feb-08 17779.5

4

17779.5

4

17258.2 17578.72

Analysis

Sensex opened at 17,820 on 1st February and make high of 18,895 on 4 th February.With

making a low of 16,457 on 11 February Sensex close at 17,578 at the end of month.

Reasons

The blow of Industrial growth data that its only 7.6 per cent compare to last year 13.6 per

cent its 43 per cent beaten.

Poor listing of Reliance power on 11 February drag Sensex to its lowest point. Its listed

on BSE at `548 and fall `131 in just 3 hour. And next make the low of `345.

All world market crashing down. The worst hit was Hong Kongs Hang Seng which

dropped 2110 point, to reach 22,921

Net sellings from MFs FIIs



67/154


For the month of March 2008


3-Mar-08 17227.56 17227.56 16634.63 16677.88

4-Mar-08 16742.2 16754.0

6

16164.5

7

16339.8

9

5-Mar-08 16328.9

1

16595.6

4

16253.0

2

16542.0

8

7-Mar-08 16211.9

6

16211.9

6

15689.9

2

15975.5

2

10-Mar-08 15684.24

15998.33

15362.17

15923.72

11-Mar-08 15778.2

7

16168.1

3

15739.0

4

16123.1

5

12-Mar-08 16541.1

4

16683.3

7

16064.0

9

16127.9

8



68/154


13-Mar-08 15873.2

8

15873.2

8

15228.9

9

15357.3

5

14-Mar-08 15467.3

9

15798.4

2

15331.3

5

15760.5

2

17-Mar-08 15326.93

15326.93

14739.72

14809.49

18-Mar-08 14725.6

8

15164.7

3

14677.2

4

14833.4

6

19-Mar-08 15325.7

9

15465.8

1

14930.0

8

14994.8

3

24-Mar-08 15093.7

7

15351.3

1

15056.0

9

15289.4

25-Mar-08 15612.6

1

16262.3

8

15612.6

1

16217.4

9

26-Mar-08 16270.1

2

16309.8

8

16009.8

7

16086.8

3

27-Mar-08 15950.2

9

16111.4

4

15869.0

9

16015.5

6

28-Mar-08 16100.2

6

16452.0

8

15884.4

5

16371.2

9

31-Mar-08 16226.6

6

16226.6

6

15563.1

5

15644.4

4

Analysis

In the month of March Sensex open at 17,227 and that point only was the high for the month of

March. Sensex was moving on expected lines. The low was 14,677 which was made on 18th

March. On the 25th march Sensex shown the rally of 928 in upward direction. And close in the

negative sentiment after recovering 967 points from low at 15,644.

Reasons



69/154


First week of March after P.Chidambram unveiled the pro-people Budget of

the UPA government.

Poor Index of industrial production (IIP) numbers bruised the market on 12th march

Finance minister announced `60,000 crores agriculture loan waiver.

The FIIs inflow till march 25 th was `889 crore and alone FIIs have done purchasing of

`1345 crores that was resulted in rally of 928 points on 25 th March.

Global markets were in positive direction including US at the end of the month.



1-Apr-08 15771.72 15834.05 15297.96 15626.62

2-Apr-08 16023.3 16236.7 15719.47 15750.4

3-Apr-08 15805.63 16002.73 15699.21 15832.55

4-Apr-08 15896.09 15896.09 15303.04 15343.12



70/154


7-Apr-08 15390.15 15851.88 15321.56 15757.08

8-Apr-08 15770.16 15770.4 15479.42 15587.62

9-Apr-08 15512.7 15829.59 15464.72 15790.51

10-Apr-08 15754.87 15953.54 15655.2 15695.1

11-Apr-08 15840.56 15957.24 15673.67 15807.64

15-Apr-08 15694.41 16249.46 15573.03 16153.66

16-Apr-08 16288.76 16413.8 16198.56 16244.19

17-Apr-08 16456.04 16570.57 16397.17 16481.2

21-Apr-08 16611.41 16778.59 16611.41 16739.33

22-Apr-08 16686.55 16853.96 16597.53 16783.87

23-Apr-08 16823.99 16871.27 16589.45 16698.04

24-Apr-08 16796.26 16844.02 16668.6 16721.08

25-Apr-08 16781.97 17150.92 16781.97 17125.98

28-Apr-08 17251.56 17271.56 16978.89 17015.96

29-Apr-08 17050.87 17424.94 17011.6 17378.46

30-Apr-08 17479.01 17480.74 17241.88 17287.31

Analysis

In month April Sensex start with opening of 15,771 with gap up opening of 127 point .

Sensex make high of 17,480 on 30th

April and make low of 15,297 on the first itself and close at17,287. The Indian markets now seem to be responding more on the basis of the pros and corns

of Indian economy rather than being lead by global cues.

Reasons



71/154


On 18th April Citi group had announced the loss of $5.1 billion although market open in

plus 258 points.

On 23rd April Good result given by Indian Inc in the third quarter. RIL the biggest

corporate player had registered profit of`3912 crore, It was 24 per cent more than lastyears Q4 result.

Internationally it seems that markets all over had discounted the fear of US economic

slowdown and financial crisis. All the global indices showing appreciation from the past

levels.



2-May-08 17560.15 17621.24 17445.93 17600.12

5-May-08 17687 17735.7 17457.27 17490.9

6-May-08 17441.41 17502.15 17237.68 17373.01

7-May-08 17404.15 17413.81 17229.98 17339.31



72/154


8-May-08 17212.61 17212.61 17038.03 17080.65

9-May-08 17020.79 17125.95 16678.94 16737.07

12-May-08 16641.45 16897.36 16546.55 16860.9

13-May-08 17008.03 17085.63 16697.47 16752.86

14-May-08 16691.3 17014.94 16626.35 16978.35

15-May-08 17084.89 17366.19 17079.94 17353.54

16-May-08 17476.41 17497.36 17315.52 17434.94

20-May-08 17366.05 17367.13 17136.26 17230.18

21-May-08 17065.61 17293.34 17041.63 17243.16

22-May-08 17104.59 17104.59 16863.38 16907.11

23-May-08 16958.8 17054.34 16626.11 16649.64

26-May-08 16468.32 16498.24 16300.88 16348.5

27-May-08 16454.75 16506.35 16237.92 1627

Documents

Project report on Factor Affecting Stock market Volatility