Project results «System analysis and forecasting in the realm of science and technologies by the direction “Mechanical engineering” Expert group: Tyrtyshniy

Project results«System analysis and forecasting in the realm of

science and technologies by the direction “Mechanical engineering”

Expert group:Tyrtyshniy Ye.S.

Kenzhin B.M. Altayev T.I.

Godyna N.N. Dautbayev B.A.

Lizunov V.N. Underbayev O.D.

Smirnov Yu. M.Ismurzinov N. R.

Almaty, 2014

“ National Center of State scientific and technical expertise” JSC

Project aim:

- To train persons who take decisions to changes in future.

- To define strategic directions of scientific research and working-out in the sphere of mechanical engineering which allow Kazakhstan to get a new level of development and provide living standards increase and Kazakhstan people well-being.

- To estimate threats, risks and possibilities of mechanical engineering development in Kazakhstan in future.

Horizon period – 2030

2

The main groups of project results users

Ministries and departments

•Workig out of scientific and technical and innovation politics

•The choice of priorities of science and technologies development

•Taking of investment decisions and budget scientific programs forming

•….

NCSSTE•Trends of scientific and technological and innovation development•Estimation criteria of scientific projects directed on future development•Grading of scientific projects and programs, which are corresponding to challenges and needs of Kazakhstan in future•Forming of package of scientific projects and programs with assignment priorities for financing•Forming of world, state and regional research nets•Definition of priorities directions for creation of Center of excellence•Scientists mobility maintenance (including international)•Facilitating the growth of the number of releases and patents in the spheres which are more significant for long term development

Society•Priorities, providing the increasing of nation well-being•Increasing of all society members well-being•Improvement of education system and development of innovation business, providing with population employment growth

Science•Directions of realization of R&D, new area of research•International and in-country mobility, cooperation with leading international research institutes•Increasing of releases and patents quality

Industry•Increasing of information level about future markets, products, technologies and R&D•Strengthening the connection between science and business •Correspondence of business strategies to priorities of country development in future

4

1. Trends, possibilities, threats of machine industry development in the world and Kazakhstan, SWO Tanalysis development scanning

2. Definition of key development factors on the future

Research conduction scheme

1. Tree of technologies

2. BMO analysis 3. Passport of

scientific lines

Plan of actions (aims, tasks, results in section: 1) 8 sectors2) More 20 sub sectors3) Macro level (interdisciplinary programs of scientific research)

1.Expert panels on every weak base, including more 60 experts in section 8 sectors2.Questionnaire more than 300 Kazakhstan experts3.Round tables with the participation of more than 300 experts

1.Bibliometric and patent analysis 1000 and more publication references and patents (Scopus)2.Bibliometric and patent analysis in Kazakhstan ( NC SSTU base)

1. Upside scenario development till 2030.

2. 8 sectoral scenaries of development

Scenario development of mechanical engineering in Kazakhstan for the period untill 2030 is a base for strategical understanding of variants of future mechanical engineering development in Kazakhstan on the base of definition of key trends, possibilities and risks of future and also variables which have a high uncertainity in future.

The list of products/services, technologies and lines of science researches and developments conduction

Road maps are work detailed elaboration in development of priority directions of science and technological development in the sphere of mechanical engineering in Kazakhstan in the period untill 2030

Lines certification of science research and development conduction

5

Researches results

Scenario structure

6

I. WORLD CHALLENGES, TRENDS AND FACTORS OF DEVELOPMENT

II. KAZAKHSTAN TRENDS AND FACTORS

III. KEY TRENDS AND FACTORS FOR MECHANICAL ENGINEERING DEVELOPMENT

IV. ANALYSIS OF MUTUAL FACTORS INFLUENCE

V. ANALYSIS OF FUTURE MARKETS IN THE WORLD AND KAZAKHSTAN

VI. ANALYSIS OF STRATEGIES AND PROGRAMS OF DEVELOPMENT OF

MECHANICAL ENGINEERING SPHERE IN THE WORLD

VII. ANALYSIS OF STRATEGIES AND PROGRAMS OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING

SECTOR IN KAZAKHSTAN

VIII.ANALYSIS OF R&D, COUNTRY LEADERS REVEALING

IX. ANALYSIS OF COMPETENCE IN THE SPHERE OF R&D IN KAZAKHSTAN

X. STRATEGIES OF ACTIONS ON SCENARIO REALIZATION

XI. «WILD MAPS» AND «WEAK SIGNALS» OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING

XII. RISKS AND THREATS OF SCENARIO REALIZATION

7

Trends and factors of machine industry development in Kazakhstan

•Population growth, especially in developing

countries- Reindustrialization

- Changing of consumer preference

- Lack of skilled staff or necessity of education system modernization

-Population and products consumers mobility

- Demands increase in high quality goods

-Priority of “green” economy

- Third Industrial Revolution

-6th Technological Way- Development of IT technologies of new

generation- Development of

Kazakhstan technologies in mechanical engineering- Safety of mechanical

engineering production

- Income growth in developing countries- Industrial security- Price changing for

resources and exchange

- Production globalization

- High competition of neighboring countries (China, RF)

-Pollution of ground and water in the result

of human economic activity

-Lack of water resources

-Quantity of carbon dioxide and other

greenhouse gases in the atmosphere

increases –global climate change

-Geopolitic unsteadiness in some

regions-State intervention

increase-Fight for earth, water

and energy

- Entering in WTO- Participation in the

Customs Union- Improvement of

investment climate

“MECHANICAL ENGINEERING” IN KAZAKHSTAN

Society

Technology

Economy

Environment

Politics

Trends and factors of machine industry development in Kazakhstan

Key factors on makro-level:Т1 Priority of “green”economyТ2 Third industry revolutionТ3 6th Technological modeE4 High competition of neighboring countries

(China, RF)P3 Fight for earth, water and energy

Key factors on makro-level:Т1 Priority of “green”economyТ2 Third industry revolutionТ3 6th Technological modeE4 High competition of neighboring countries

(China, RF)P3 Fight for earth, water and energy

Key factors on micro-level:Т2 Absence of production correlation with sectoral science T6 Automation of processes in mechanical engineeringE2 Production of mechanical engineering products with small lotsР4 Improvement of investment climate

«Критические» по влиянию факторы

Факторы с высокой неопределенностью

S1

S2

T1T2

T3T4

T5

T6

T7

E1

E2

E3

Eco1

P1P2

P3

P4

0

1

2

3

4

5

0 1 2 3 4 5

Степень неопределенности

Степ

ень

влия

ния

Социальные

Технологические

Экономические

Экологические

Политические

“Critical” influenced factors

Factors with high uncertainty

Influence level

Uncertainty level

Social

Technoloogical

Economical

Ecological

Political

Interrelation and mutual factors influence

9

Micro levelMacro level

Important influence

Influence

10

Results analysis of world and Kazakhstan competences in the sphere of mechanical engineering

The most frequently used phrases/themes in releases on mechanical engineering

2030: Optimal future for Kazakhstan in the sphere of mechanical engineering

11

Transport mechanical engineering•Implementation of high technologies will provide a turnout of rival products of railways traction equipment; •New types of energy-conservative components will be created: asynchronous traction motors, trolleys for rail cars; •Trucks and motor-cars on electric and hybrid propulsion will be used; •In finishing items, native auto components for all types of transports will be not less than 60%;•Optimization of transportation will be fulfilled at the expense of widely used technologies of computer distant control of freight traffic and transport flow.

Agricultural engineering• Complexes of cars and equipment for high productive cattle breeding and farm products processing will allow to provide a receipt of high quality final production at low cost price; • Resource saving complexes of cars with minimum and zero cultivation for plant breeding will provide a realization of «green technologies” in industrial scales; • Results of research and development of express operation technologies of tractors and FM and СЭ and composite materials (including tyres) will promote import substitution of component base and forming of competitive production of agricultural engineering;•Release of competitive meat and dairy products will be assimilated by means of usage of industrial productions with a high level of mechanization and automation processes; •Multibank wasteless automated agricultural complexes with round-the-clock production of agricultural raw materials will be functioned.

2030: Optimal future for Kazakhstan in the sphere of mechanical engineering

12

Ore mining and smelting mechanical engineering • On the base of high technology a release of machine complex and equipment in technology of manless mining of coal beds will be assimilated;•Serial production of drill pipes and life-limited parts of mining equipment with wear resistant coating of different types will be assimilated;•All mining companies will be provided with domestic smart tools of air environment control in bottom holes and forecasting units and protection from industrial disaster and catastrophe.

Power mechanical engineering•High quality units for electricity outputs on the base of wind and solar energy usage will be functioned;•Existing energy providers will use facilities of heat recuperation everywhere (secondly usage of stream and excess heat);•Consumers and producers of electricity will be united in intellectual energetic systems; •All existing heating stations will be assimilated with modern safety products from pollutant flux in then atmosphere.

General mechanical engineering•All-round switching on PLM Systems of product lifecycle management for providing of release of leading high technology productions will be realized in mechanical engineering;•.Implementation of 3D printing in mechanical engineering will be a good indicator of real industrial power of the state;•Developed industrial robots of 2nd and 3rd generation will allow to realize productions of the most difficult mechanical engineering products;•On the base of domestic raw materials base on production of rare-earth metals new highly effective electric motors and generators on strong constant magnets and highly temperature superconductor material will be created.f

Strategies of answer on future key challenges within “Mechanical engineering» direction

13

JUDGING FROM KAZAKHSTAN COMPETENCE in the period untill 2030

Independent development of scientific programs

-Planning of resource saving complexes of machine production with minimum and zero cultivation for plant breeding-Planning of three elements stamp-welded trolley with axle load 25 tons for rail cars-Planning of asynchronous traction motors production for diesel-electric locomotive and electric locomotive-Research and implementation of effective methods of increasing of strength properties and corrosion resistance of screw blades-Planning of coating increasing the service properties of life-limited parts-Process research of worked out sand mixture regeneration-Development of perfected new construction of hydraulic machines in particluar gear pumps and production technologies-Technologies development of thermo friction processing of tooth wheel teeth-Planning of combustion products of organic fuel clearance

Answer strategies on future key challenges within «Machine industry» direction

14

JUDGING FROM KAZAKHSTAN COMPETENCE, in the period untill 2030

Conduction of mutual scientific researches with leading world scientific centers

- Plannng of equipment production for cattle breeding mechanization-Planning for equipment production for meat products- Planning of electric tracion machines production -Technological processes development of auto components production -Planning of wind energy source (WES)-Development and implementation of equipment for intellectual management of energetic nets of enterprises and urban economy -Planning of accumulation battery of extended capacity production for WES, radio electronics-3D printing- Industry robotics-High effective electric machines on the base of SCM/RM and VSTP/RM

Transfer of leading technologies and adaptation to Kazakhstan conditions

-Manufacturing technologies of executing mechanisms parts production of tractors and FM -Manufacturing technologies of machines and equipment for processing of agricultural raw materials-Research and development of technologies of tyres made of СЕ production and equipment for their production-Research in the sphere of combustion procedures in combustor plants (plasma burners and etc)-PLM systems

15

R&D competences of Kazakhstan in the sphere of mechanical engineering

1st priority

Oil and gas

Electrics

ore and metallurgic

Agricultural

Component base

2nd priority

RW

AttractivenessCar industry

Machine-tool industry

Household appliances

Construction

Energetic

Aircraft industry

Shipping industry

Element base

Realizability

Diameter – release of RK in 2014

Instrumentation

Definition of priority themes of SIORK for Kazakhstan in the period of untill 2030 on Mechanical Engineerng

direction

16

Соотношение респондентов по возрастному составу

Structural composition of responders Structural composition of academic and scientific sphere responders

representatives of academic and

scientific community

representatives of business

community

Doctor of Science

Doctor of philosophy

workers of scientific

activity sphere

Responders correlation on age structureExperts number on age

Over 60

In the estimation of technologies and themes of scientific researches it took part

17

Representatives of academic and scientific communities

Representative of business community

Institute of high technologies SAUTS-OIL

Astana city regional technological park of Alageum Electric

“KazNIPIEnergoprom” Institutions Shardarinskaya HPP

KBTU West Kazakhstan Machine Industry Company

Kazakhstan Sea Academy Teniz Burgylay

KGUTI named after Sh.Yessenov TenizService

Hydropribor R&D KazMunaiGas-Service

KInEU named after M. Dulatov Kaztsinkmash

Pavlodar state university Semipalatinsk machinery plant

Kazakhstan nuclear institute Semei Engineering

ENU named after L.N.Gumilyev Ulba metallurgic plant

KazNTU named after Satpayev “ArselorMittal Temirtau” JSC

Priority area of SIORK of mechanical engineering direction

18

Product/Service Technologies Themes of schientific research and developments

Transport mechanical engineering

Production of «green revolution” auto mobiles on electric traction

Electric traction automobiles production technologies

Technology development of electric traction auto mobiles

Auto components to “Green revolution» production – electric traction auto mobiles

Auto components production technology

Development of technological processes of auto components production

Three elements stamp welded trolleys for rail cars

Three elements stamp welded trolley production technology

Technologies development of three elements stamp welded trolley with axle load 25 tons for rail cars

Asynchronous traction motors for diesel electric and electric locomotives

Technology developments of asynchronous traction motors for railroad train

Technology development of asynchronous traction motors for diesel electric and electric locomotives production

19


Ore mining and smelting mechanical engineering

Corrosion resistant screw blade of added strength

Technology of production of corrosion resistant screw blade of added strength

Development and implementation of effective methods of strength properties increasing and screw blade corrosion resistant

Life limited pats with increased service characteristics

Increasing technologies of service characteristics life limited details

Development and research of coatings, increased services characteristics of life limited parts

Equipment with regenerate sand mixture

Regeneration technology of worked out sand mixture

Process research of regeneration of worked out mixture

New developed hydraulic cars

Technology of new hydraulic cars production

Research of developed new construction of hydraulic cars in particular gear pumps and production technologies

Wear resistant tooth wheel Technology of thermo friction processing of teeth of tooth wheels

Research of Technology of thermo friction processing of teeth of tooth wheels


20


Agricultural engineering

Parts of executing mechanisms of tractors and agricultural

Technology of parts production of executing mechanisms of tractors and AM

Planning of parts production of executing mechanisms of tractors and FM

Planning of tyres production for tractors and FM made of synthetic elastomerDevelopment of new products modifications, expansion of nomenclature of details for tractors and AM made of synthetic elastomer and compositions

Machines and equipment for farm produce processing

Technologies of manufacture of machines and equipment for farm produce processing

Technology development of production of machines and equipment for farm produce processing

Technology development of equipment production for meat products production

Resource savings complexes of cars for plant breeding

Technology of manufacture of Resource savings complexes of cars for plant breeding

Technology development of production of Resource savings complexes of cars for plant breeding

Equipment for mechanization of cattle breeding

Technology of manufacture of equipment for mechanization of cattle breeding

Technology development of production of equipment for mechanization of cattle breeding


21


Power engineering

“Green revolution» production – Wind generators

Technology of manufacture of wind energy source

Development of technologies of wind energy source (WES) production

Smart equipment for energetic nets of enterprises and urban economy

Technology of manufacture of smart equipment for energetic nets of enterprises and urban economy

Development and implementation of equipment for intellectual management of energetic nets of enterprises and urban economy

Electrofilters and scrubbers of high level of cleaning

Technology of manufacture of system of combustion products clearance of organic fuel

Development and research of technologies of combustion products clearance of organic fuel

New accumulation batteries of extended capacity

Technology of manufacture of accumulation batteries of extended capacity for WES, radio electronics

Development of technology of production of accumulation batteries of extended capacity for WES, radio electronics

High effective plasma burners

Technology of plasma burners manufacture Research in the sphere of burning processes in combustor plants (plasma burners and etc)


22


General mechanical engineering

PLM system of product life cycle management

Technology of creation of machine industry on the base of PLM System

Development of integrational processes of machine creation on the base on design technology model and GAKS/PLM technologies

Difficult machine industry production of 6th technological way

Technology of manufacture of complicated mechanical engineering by means of 3D printing

Production of complicated machine industry manufature by means of 3D printing

Industrial robot system complexes of 2nd and 3rd generation

Technology of manufacture of robot system

Development and research of robot system for painting, welding and car parts production

New high effective electric cars on the base of SPM and VSTPmade of HPM

Technology of production of New high effective electric cars on the base of SPM and VSTP made of HPM

Development of technologies of electric motors, separators and other products on the base on superpower permanent magnit (SPM) and RAM.

Development of technologies and generators and electric motors of big capacity and other productions on the base on new high temperature superconductor materials (HTSM) made of rare earth metals (REM))


20142014 20172017

Production technologies of auto components in far abroad and near countries (Russia,

Germany, Japan, China, etc.)

Production technologies of auto components in far abroad and near countries (Russia,

Germany, Japan, China, etc.)

Production technologies of electric motors and accumulator batteries for them on the base of

electric motors of leading auto producers of the world

Production technologies of electric motors and accumulator batteries for them on the base of

electric motors of leading auto producers of the world

Risks of value appreciation of project costs Risks of value appreciation of project costs

-Absence of close connection of native science and production-High competition from far abroad and near countries side-Dominancy of foreign companies in the sphere of production of transport techniques

-Absence of close connection of native science and production-High competition from far abroad and near countries side-Dominancy of foreign companies in the sphere of production of transport techniques

Human resource risks Human resource risks

Financial resources Investors, private state partnership Financial resources Investors, private state partnership

Research establishments (JSC R&D establishment of transport and communication, KIRI, National center of science and technical information of RK and etc); Universities (Nazarbayev University, KazNU, ENU, KazATU, InEU and etc) Research establishments (JSC R&D establishment of transport and communication, KIRI, National center of science and technical information of RK and etc); Universities (Nazarbayev University, KazNU, ENU, KazATU, InEU and etc)

Creation of mutual productions on the territory of the country with leading world producersCreation of mutual productions on the territory of the country with leading world producers

SI FIID of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2014-2020

SI FIID of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2014-2020 ……….. (new programs)……….. (new programs)

Road map – «Mechanical engineering» direction (sub-direction «Transport mechanical engineering”)

Strategy of innovation development of the Republic of Kazakhstan in the period untill 2030


- Technologies transfer necessity at the beginning - Absence of special equipment on production of transport techniques- Presence of serial produced examined types of third techniques produced by far abroad and near countries

- Technologies transfer necessity at the beginning - Absence of special equipment on production of transport techniques- Presence of serial produced examined types of third techniques produced by far abroad and near countries

Strategy 2050Strategy 2050

20232023 20302030

Test model for trolley for rail cars

Test model for trolley for rail cars

Production and assembly technologies of stock electric motor on the base of Russian

model Lada Kalina

Production and assembly technologies of stock electric motor on the base of Russian

model Lada Kalina

Development of asynchronous traction motor for diesel-electric locomotive and

electric locomotive production technology

Development of asynchronous traction motor for diesel-electric locomotive and

electric locomotive production technology

Development of auto components production technological processesDevelopment of auto components production technological processes

Technologies research on automobiles construction with electric traction

Technologies research on automobiles construction with electric traction

Technologies of technical service and repair of electric motors which are series produced in far

abroad countries

Technologies of technical service and repair of electric motors which are series produced in far

abroad countries

Series produced electric motors of 3 types

Series produced electric motors of 3 types

……….……….

Equipment acquisition for casting, hammer work, stamping, machine process of details and units of transport mobiles

Equipment acquisition for casting, hammer work, stamping, machine process of details and units of transport mobiles

Control for on-time research of file of construction documentation

Control for on-time research of file of construction documentation

Choice of universities and control for specialists training on production of

transport techniques

Choice of universities and control for specialists training on production of

transport techniquesCreation an own production on examined types

of transport techniques in the countryCreation an own production on examined types

of transport techniques in the countryChecking of on-time preparation of

created assembly productionChecking of on-time preparation of

created assembly production

Organization and control for purchase of technological equipment for production

Organization and control for purchase of technological equipment for production

Test model of asynchronous traction motor for diesel-electric locomotive and electric

locomotive

Test model of asynchronous traction motor for diesel-electric locomotive and electric

locomotive

Technologies development of three elements stapm-welded trolley with axle load 25 tons for rail

cars

Technologies development of three elements stapm-welded trolley with axle load 25 tons for rail

cars

Production technologies of asynchronous traction electric motors in

far abroad and near countries (Russia, USA, France, Sweden, etc)

Production technologies of asynchronous traction electric motors in

far abroad and near countries (Russia, USA, France, Sweden, etc)

Cost demanding researches - $$$ Cost demanding researches - $$$ Technologies transfer of leading world producers of transport technics. Preparation of specialists in all directions of examined works in leading

world universities.

Technologies transfer of leading world producers of transport technics. Preparation of specialists in all directions of examined works in leading

world universities.

Time

Products/Services

Area of sientific research

Basic technologies

Resources

Strategies/ Programs

Risks

Monitoring

Indicators Preparation of specialists in universities in all directions

of R&D

Preparation of specialists in universities in all directions

of R&D

Five international releases, patents receipt, creation of experienced items of electric motors

and trolleys for rail cars

Five international releases, patents receipt, creation of experienced items of electric motors

and trolleys for rail cars

Ten international releases, experience samples of electric motors, native auto

components

Ten international releases, experience samples of electric motors, native auto

components

Series produced electric motors of types

Series produced electric motors of types

Operation plan Long-term visionStrategic plan

Auto components of native production

Auto components of native production

Auto components on transferAuto components on transfer

VSS for electric motors

VSS for electric motors

Research of optimal variant of VSS for electric

motors

Research of optimal variant of VSS for electric

motors

Researches regarding optimal gamma of electric

motors constructions

Researches regarding optimal gamma of electric

motors constructions

VSS presenceVSS presence

Series produced car trolleysSeries produced car trolleys Series produced traction electric motors

Series produced traction electric motors

Electric automobile test model

Electric automobile test model

Production technology of Kazakhstan accumulator batteries «BARS GOLD» Production technology of Kazakhstan accumulator batteries «BARS GOLD»

Presence not less than 30% of native auto

components in assembled auto mobiles

Presence not less than 30% of native auto

components in assembled auto mobiles

Research of new modifications of products, expansion of nomenclature of parts for tractors and FM manufactured from synthetic elastomers and

compositions

Research of new modifications of products, expansion of nomenclature of parts for tractors and FM manufactured from synthetic elastomers and

compositions

20142014 20172017

Producing technology of tractors and cars of agricultural destination

Producing technology of tractors and cars of agricultural destination

New technologies of parts manufacture for cars of agricultural destination

New technologies of parts manufacture for cars of agricultural destination

Risks of value appreciation of project costs-Human resources risks

Risks of value appreciation of project costs-Human resources risks

- Lack of specialized centers of domestic science on new materials development-High competition from far abroad and near countries side in the sphere of cars and equipment production

- Lack of specialized centers of domestic science on new materials development-High competition from far abroad and near countries side in the sphere of cars and equipment production

- Dominating of foreign companies in the sphere of producing technologies of cars parts

- Dominating of foreign companies in the sphere of producing technologies of cars parts

Financial resources Investors, private state partnership Financial resources Investors, private state partnership

R&D organizations (“Kazakhstan engineering” NC, “KazAgroInnovation” JSC, Company “KazNIIMESH” LLP, СФ РГП НПЦ ППП etc.); Universities (Nazarbayev university, KazNU, KazNAU, KBTU, Kazakhstan Agricultural and Mechamical university named after S. Seifullin etc.), Enterprises: “Karaganda mechanical engineering consortium” LLP etc. R&D organizations (“Kazakhstan engineering” NC, “KazAgroInnovation” JSC, Company “KazNIIMESH” LLP, СФ РГП НПЦ ППП etc.); Universities (Nazarbayev university, KazNU, KazNAU, KBTU, Kazakhstan Agricultural and Mechamical university named after S. Seifullin etc.), Enterprises: “Karaganda mechanical engineering consortium” LLP etc.

Manufacturing technology transfer for cattle breeding mechanization, producing technologies of synthetic elastomers and producing technologies of different products from them , technology transfer of muscle-driven grind, technology transfer of agricultural raw materials processing , purchasing of modern laboratory equipment for development conduction Manufacturing technology transfer for cattle breeding mechanization, producing technologies of synthetic elastomers and producing technologies of different products from them , technology transfer of muscle-driven grind, technology transfer of agricultural raw materials processing , purchasing of modern laboratory equipment for development conduction



……….. (new programs)

……….. (new programs)

Road-map – “Mechanical engineering” direction» (sub-direction - «Agricultural engineering»)


- Coordination lack of intersectorial researches - Transfer necessity at the beginning - Lack of scientific and material and technical resources- Lack of certified laboratories

- Coordination lack of intersectorial researches - Transfer necessity at the beginning - Lack of scientific and material and technical resources- Lack of certified laboratories

SI FIID of the Republic of Kazakhstan on 2014-2020SI FIID of the Republic of Kazakhstan on 2014-2020

20232023 20302030

Test equipment for mechanisms of cattle

breeding

Test equipment for mechanisms of cattle

breeding

Equipment manufacturing technology for cattle breeding mechanization

Equipment manufacturing technology for cattle breeding mechanization

Technology development of equipment production for cattle

breeding mechanization

Technology development of equipment production for cattle

breeding mechanization Creation of multiple robots for parts manufacture for tractors

and FMCreation of multiple robots for parts manufacture for tractors

and FM

New technologies of tractors and FM destination manufacture

New technologies of tractors and FM destination manufacture

Modified tyres and cars parts of different destination and typical size, 16 regional complexes of sale of new and waste recycling parts

Modified tyres and cars parts of different destination and typical size, 16 regional complexes of sale of new and waste recycling parts

……….……….

Leading foreign organizations in the sphere of researches

Leading foreign organizations in the sphere of researches

USA “John Deere”, “Emeritayer” Corporations, Japan “Fanuk” Company

USA “John Deere”, “Emeritayer” Corporations, Japan “Fanuk” Company

On-time developments results conclusion as stages of planning

On-time developments results conclusion as stages of planning

Development of effective domestic research and technology resources of farm machine industry on the base on transfer of

high technology from leading countries

Development of effective domestic research and technology resources of farm machine industry on the base on transfer of

high technology from leading countries

Creation of clusters on planning of cars and equipment manufacture for cattle breeding, plant breeding and processing industry, implementation of researches in

production

Creation of clusters on planning of cars and equipment manufacture for cattle breeding, plant breeding and processing industry, implementation of researches in

production

Development and perfection of educational Bachelor’s program, Master’s program and doctoral program, increasing of state grants numberDevelopment and perfection of educational Bachelor’s program, Master’s program and doctoral program, increasing of state grants number

Test parties of equipment for

agricultural raw processing

Test parties of equipment for

agricultural raw processing

Planning of tyres manufacture made of SE and

equipment for their production

Planning of tyres manufacture made of SE and


Tyres manufacturing technology and equipment for

their production

Tyres manufacturing technology and equipment for

their production

China GZSJINCHENG LTD Russia Russian institute of meat industry “Elastokam” LLC, “EKSI” LLC

China GZSJINCHENG LTD Russia Russian institute of meat industry “Elastokam” LLC, “EKSI” LLC

Germany « Lemken» Company, “Vakona”, «Henneke», «Krauss Maffei», «Desma» Firms,

Germany « Lemken» Company, “Vakona”, «Henneke», «Krauss Maffei», «Desma» Firms,

Time

Products/services

Area of scientific

researches

Basic technology

Resources

Strategies/programs

Risks

Monitoring

Indicators48 specialists were trained to

technology48 specialists were trained to

technologyPublications in international magazines.

Receipt patents for technologiesPublications in international magazines.

Receipt patents for technologies International conformity certificate

International conformity certificate

Patents for variable part mix of cars and equipmentPatents for variable part mix of cars and equipmentConformity certificate of RKConformity certificate of RK


Test parties of tyres and


Test parties of parts for

tractors and FM

Cars and equipment manufacturing technology for agricultural raw materials processing

Research and development of cars and equipment for agricultural raw material processing

Research and development of parts of executing mechanisms production of tractors and FM production

Manufacturing technology of executing mechanisms parts for tractors and FM

Technology development of equipment production for

meat products manufacture

Equipment manufacturing technology for meat foods

Test equipment for meat products

Test sample of resource saving

complex of cars for plant breeding

Planning of resource saving complexes of cars manufacture for plant breeding

Planning of resource saving complexes of cars manufacture for plant breeding

25

Дорожная карта – направление «Машиностроение» (под-направление «Горно-металлургическое машиностроение»)

Время

Продукты/

Услуги

Тематики научных

исследова-ний

Базовые технологии

Индикато-ры

Ресурсы

Стратегии/ Програм-

мы

Риски

Монито-ринг

Операционный план Стратегический план Долгосрочное видение

2014 2017 2023 2030

Оборудование для нанесения современных

многофункциональных покрытий

Технологии нанесения современных

многофункциональных покрытий

Современные многофункциональные покрытия

Разработка нанотехнологии модифицирования рабочей

поверхности трибосопряжений на основе углерода и азота,

обеспечивающих коррозионную и износостойкость

Математические модели систем автоматизированного проектирования

производственных процессов для оценки проектной и циклической прочности механизированных крепей с учетом

ресурсосберегающих технологий

Конструкторско-технологическое и инструментальное обеспечение

качества деталей горно-шахтного и горно-перерабатывающего

оборудования с целью повышения его эксплуатационной стойкости

Создание новых многофункциональных покрытий

для деталей горно-металлургического машиностроения

Разработка технологии газопламенного нанесения износостойких покрытий Технологическое обеспечение качества поверхности деталей под нанесение покрытий

Технологии нанесения покрытий химико-термическими методами

Технологии осаждения (CVD и PVD)

Технология упрочнения пластическим деформиррованием

Стратегия 2050 ГП ФИИР Республики Казахстан на 2014-2020 годы

… (новые программы) Стратегия инновационного развития Республики Казахстан на период до 2030 года

Технология механической обработки

15 публикаций в международных журналах

4 программных продукта

Получение 3 патентов на методы, оборудование и технологию

30 специалистов, обученных технологии нанесения покрытий

Прототипы образцов 5 многофункциональных покрытий

– Необходимость трансферта технологий на начальном этапе – Наличие материально технической базы – наличие аттестованных лабораторий – Наличие расходных материалов для исследований

Риски удорожания стоимости проекта

– Отсутствие тесной связи отечественной науки с производством – Высокая конкуренция со стороны стран ближнего и дальнего зарубежья – Доминирование иностранных компаний в области нанотехнологий

Кадровые риски

Развитие инфраструктуры и технологической базы

Создание технологий нанесения многофункциональных покрытий

Трансфер технологий нанесения покрытий

Внедрение технологии нанесения покрытий в горно-металлургический кластер

Создание современных многофункциональных покрытий

Приобретение современного лабораторного оборудования для проведения исследований свойств покрытий

Финансовые ресурсы Инвесторы, государственно-частное партнерство

Разработка и совершенствование образовательных программ бакалавриата, магистратуры и докторантуры, увеличение количества государственных грантов Акты внедрения технологии в производство

Предприятия и НИИ («ИПКОН», ИГД им.Кунаева, ХМИ им.Абишева, ТОО «Карагандинский машиностроительный консорциум»), Вузы (КарГТУ, КазНТУ, КБТУ и др.)

Ведущие зарубежные организации в области

исследования покрытий

Россия: университеты: ТПУ, МГОУ, МИСиС,

ПНИПУ

США: Мичиганский технологический

университет

Беларусь: БНТУ, БГУ, холдинг «Амкодор»,

РУП «МТЗ»

Литва: Вильнюсский технический университет

имени Гедиминаса

Гонконг: Университет

Гонконга

Германия: технический

универ-т Берлина

Франция: университет Лотарингии

Технологии лазерного упрочнения

Roadmap – “Mechanical engineering” direction(Sub-direction “Ore mining and smelting mechanical

engineering”)

Time

Products/services

Equipment for making modern multi functional

coatings

T

Technologies of making modern multi functional

coatings

Modern multi-functional coatings

Area of scientific research

Nanotechnology development of working surface modifying of

tribocoupling on the base of carbon and azote, providing

corrosion and wear resistances

Mathematic system models of automated mechanical of production processes for

estimation of project and cycle strength of powered support taking into account

resource saving technologies

Planning of gas-flame application on wear resistant coating

Design technological and instrumental supporting of

parts quality of ore mining and mining and processing

equipment

Creation of new multifunctional coatings of ore and mining mechanical engineering.

Technological support of parts surface quality for coatings application

Basic technologies Coatings application

technology by thermochemical methods

Deposition technology (CVD и PVD)

Laser hardening technologies

Plastic straining hardening technology

Mechanical processing technology

Indicators 15 releases in international magazines

4 program products

Receipt of 3 patents for methods, equipment and technology 30 specialists trained coating

application technology

Prototypes of samples of 5 multifunctional

coatings

Resources

Purchasing of modern laboratory equipment for research conduction of coatings properties

Financial resources Investors, private state partnership

Development and perfection of educational programs of Bachelor’s program

Master’s program and doctoral programs, state grants increasing

Financial resources Investors, private state partnershipFinancial resources Investors, private state partnership

leading foreign enterprises in the sphere of coatings

research

Russia: universities: TPU, MSPU, MISiS,

PNIPU

Hong Kong: Hong Kong university

Lithuania: Vilnius technical university named after Gediminas

USA: Michigan state university

Germany: Berlin technical university

France: Lotaringin university

Strategies/programs Strategy 2050 SI FIID of the Republic of

Kazakhstan on 2014-2020 …(new programs)Strategy of innovation development of the

Republic of Kazakhstan on the period till 2030

Risks – technology transfer necessity at the beginning – presence of material and technical resources– presence of certified laboratories– presence of expendable materials for researches

risks of value appreciation of project cost human

risks

– absence of local link of domestic science with production– high competition from far abroad and near countries side– dominancy of foreign companies in the sphere of nanotechnologies

Monitoring

Structure and technological resources

development

creation of multifunctional coatings application

technologies

implementation the application technology in coating in ore mining

clusterTechnology transfer

of coatings application

Creation of modern multifunctional coatings

Operation plan strategic plan long - term vision

20142014 20172017Roadmap – «Mechanical engineering» direction (sub-direction – «Energetic mechanical engineering»)

20232023 20302030 ……….……….Time

Products/Services

Area of scientific researches

Basic technologies

Resources

Strategies/programs

Risks

Monitoring

Indicators

Operation plan Long-time visionStrategic plan

Planning of RES usagePlanning of RES usage

Development and planning of organic fuel combustion products clearance

Development and planning of organic fuel combustion products clearance

Research and implementation of equipment for smart management of energetic lines of enterprises and urban

economy

Research and implementation of equipment for smart management of energetic lines of enterprises and urban

economyResearches in the sphere of combustion procedure in combustor plants (plasma

burner, etc)

Researches in the sphere of combustion procedure in combustor plants (plasma

burner, etc)

Manufacturing technology of accumulation batteries of extended capacity for RES, radio

electronics

Manufacturing technology of accumulation batteries of extended capacity for RES, radio

electronics

Solar panelsSolar panels

Biogas unitsBiogas units

Micro HPPMicro HPP

Wind generatorsWind generators

Heat pumpsHeat pumps

Smart-grid elementsSmart-grid elements

Filters (scrubbers) of high level clearing

Filters (scrubbers) of high level clearing

Plasma burnersPlasma burners

Li-Ion in-house solution accumulators

Li-Ion in-house solution accumulators

New types pf accumulation batteries

New types pf accumulation batteries

Utilization of low-grade heat of sub-soil, sub-soil waters, environment air, exhaust heat of industry

productions (metallurgic sector, existing technologies of heat and electric energy receiving –

CHP and HES, etc )

Utilization of low-grade heat of sub-soil, sub-soil waters, environment air, exhaust heat of industry

productions (metallurgic sector, existing technologies of heat and electric energy receiving –

CHP and HES, etc )

Biomass pyrolysisBiomass pyrolysis

Heat and mass exchange processes (solar collectors, wind generators, etc)

Heat and mass exchange processes (solar collectors, wind generators, etc)

Semiconducting materials for PV and also reservation and transmission of energy

Semiconducting materials for PV and also reservation and transmission of energy

Absorption, adsorbation, thermocatalytic, biochemical, plasma chemical and plasma catalystic

methods

Absorption, adsorbation, thermocatalytic, biochemical, plasma chemical and plasma catalystic

methods

Li-Ion technologies Li-Ion technologies

Specialists training in universities in all directions of

R&D

Specialists training in universities in all directions of

R&D

In accordance with Strategic plan development of RK till 2020 a share of RES im

general volume of electricity consumption should be 1,5% to 2015 and more than 3% - to

2020.

In accordance with Strategic plan development of RK till 2020 a share of RES im

general volume of electricity consumption should be 1,5% to 2015 and more than 3% - to

2020.

Filtration technologies with clearing grade more than 90%

Filtration technologies with clearing grade more than 90%

Possibility to creat domestic hybrid carsPossibility to creat domestic hybrid carsSeries produces wind generators, solar panels,

eat pumps, micro HPPSeries produces wind generators, solar panels,

eat pumps, micro HPP

Financial resources Investors, private and state partnership, grants programs and business incubating Financial resources Investors, private and state partnership, grants programs and business incubating

R&D establishments, technological park, Design bureaus , Development institutions (NATR, KIRI, AO AI, BDK, ETC)R&D establishments, technological park, Design bureaus , Development institutions (NATR, KIRI, AO AI, BDK, ETC)

Equipment purchasing, attraction of foreign specialistsEquipment purchasing, attraction of foreign specialists Transfer of technology, own high technological R&D development Transfer of technology, own high technological R&D development

Strategy 2050Strategy 2050 Strategic plan of RK development untill 2020

Strategic plan of RK development untill 2020

Strategy of innovation development of the Republic of Kazakhstan on the period of 2030

Strategy of innovation development of the Republic of Kazakhstan on the period of 2030 New programsNew programsSI FIID of the Republic of Kazakhstan on

2014-2020SI FIID of the Republic of Kazakhstan on

2014-2020

Risk of value appreciation of project costRisk of value appreciation of project cost

Lack of skilled staff, weak developed infrastructure Lack of skilled staff, weak developed infrastructure Gaps in normative legal base,

absence of technical regulationsGaps in normative legal base, absence of technical regulations

- Absence of close link between domestic science and production -High competition from far abroad and near countries side -Dominating of foreign companies in the sphere of energy production

- Absence of close link between domestic science and production -High competition from far abroad and near countries side -Dominating of foreign companies in the sphere of energy production

Control for on-time development of set design documentation

Control for on-time development of set design documentation Control for development of normative legal base Control for development of normative legal base

Organization and control for purchasing of technological equipment for production

Organization and control for purchasing of technological equipment for production

Choice of institutes and control for specialists training on production

Choice of institutes and control for specialists training on production

Planning of generators and electric motors with large capacity and other products manufacture on the base of new high temperature

superconductor material

Planning of generators and electric motors with large capacity and other products manufacture on the base of new high temperature

superconductor material

20142014 20172017

Metal powder receiving technologyMetal powder receiving technology

Industry manipulator productionIndustry manipulator production

Industry electric motors, generators, transformers and etc. production

Industry electric motors, generators, transformers and etc. production

Risks of weak administration Risks of value appreciation programs and projects cost

Risks of weak administration Risks of value appreciation programs and projects cost

- Absence of close link between domestic science and production-High competition from China’s side, far abroad and near countries-Dominating of foreign companies in the sphere of general mechanical engineering

- Absence of close link between domestic science and production-High competition from China’s side, far abroad and near countries-Dominating of foreign companies in the sphere of general mechanical engineering

Human resources risksCommunication problemsHuman resources risksCommunication problems

Financial resources Investors, private state partnershipFinancial resources Investors, private state partnership

Specialists probobation in develop and design organizations in leading developing centers in the sphere of general mechanical engineeringSpecialists probobation in develop and design organizations in leading developing centers in the sphere of general mechanical engineering

Purchasing of modern equipment and soft ware for developmentPurchasing of modern equipment and soft ware for development

SI FIID of the Republic of Kazakhstan on 2014–2020

SI FIID of the Republic of Kazakhstan on 2014–2020 ……….. (new programs)……….. (new programs)

Roadmap – “Mechanical engineering” direction (sub-direction – «General mechancal engineering»)

Strategy of innovation development of the Republic of Kazakhstan in the period till 2030

Strategy of innovation development of the Republic of Kazakhstan in the period till 2030

- Transfer technology necessity at the beginning- Presence of material and technical resources- Presence of qualified specialists and laboratories-Presence of soft ware for researches

- Transfer technology necessity at the beginning- Presence of material and technical resources- Presence of qualified specialists and laboratories-Presence of soft ware for researches


20232023 20302030

RepRap 3D printeron several materials

RepRap 3D printeron several materials

Metal-cutting machine production

Metal-cutting machine production

Planning of 3 D printing of complicated parts manufacture

Planning of 3 D printing of complicated parts manufacture

Planning of robot systems for painting, welding, assembly and cars parts manufacture

Planning of robot systems for painting, welding, assembly and cars parts manufacture

Planning of electric motors, separators and other products manufacture on the base of super power constant magnet

Planning of electric motors, separators and other products manufacture on the base of super power constant magnet

Electric motors on the base of super power CM with RM

Electric motors on the base of super power CM with RM

……….……….

Leading foreign organizations in the sphere of general mechanical engineering

Leading foreign organizations in the sphere of general mechanical engineering

Russia CSoft, SolidWorks-Russia (SWR), ASKON , “Inter Meh”, “Lotsiya Soft”, R&D CALS-technology “Applied logistics””Applied logistic” “Top systems”

Russia CSoft, SolidWorks-Russia (SWR), ASKON , “Inter Meh”, “Lotsiya Soft”, R&D CALS-technology “Applied logistics””Applied logistic” “Top systems”

Infrastructure development, methodical and technological resources of PLM-systems

Infrastructure development, methodical and technological resources of PLM-systems

Transfer of manufacturing technology of electric and technical equipment

Transfer of manufacturing technology of electric and technical equipment Industry 2.0 (Factories of

future)

Industry 2.0 (Factories of future)

Creation of high technical clusters of 3D printing

Creation of high technical clusters of 3D printing

Implementation of smart robots in industry

Implementation of smart robots in industry

Development and perfection of educational Bachelor’s, Master’s and doctoral programs, increasing of state grants numberMaking changes in legislative acts regarding researches in the sphere of high technologies Development and perfection of educational Bachelor’s, Master’s and doctoral programs, increasing of state grants numberMaking changes in legislative acts regarding researches in the sphere of high technologies

Industry Accelerator PLM 2.0Industry Accelerator PLM 2.0

Planning of integrated processes of cars creation on the base on design-technology model and GALS/PLMPlanning of integrated processes of cars creation on

the base on design-technology model and GALS/PLM

Technology of life cycle management of CALS

product

Technology of life cycle management of CALS

product

China Tsinhua university, Tsyaotun university in Sian, university of science and technology Huachzhun in Ukhani and Beijin company Beijing Longyuan Industrial Stock Co

China Tsinhua university, Tsyaotun university in Sian, university of science and technology Huachzhun in Ukhani and Beijin company Beijing Longyuan Industrial Stock Co

Europe & USA PTC, Dassault и Autodesk, Siemens, Dassault Systemes, NASA, General Electric, Airbus, Boeng, Microsystem Technology, MIT ,JapanTokyo Institute of Technology, United Kingdom University of Exeter

Europe & USA PTC, Dassault и Autodesk, Siemens, Dassault Systemes, NASA, General Electric, Airbus, Boeng, Microsystem Technology, MIT ,JapanTokyo Institute of Technology, United Kingdom University of Exeter

Time

Products/Services

Area of scientific

researches

Basic technologies

Resources

Strategies/programs

Risks

Monitoring

Indicators25 specialists were trained25 specialists were trained

15 releases in international magazines

15 releases in international magazines Patent receipt for 3 new systemsPatent receipt for 3 new systems 4 equipment prototype4 equipment prototype

New technological decisionsNew technological decisions


Production of industrial electric and technical units with large capacity

Production of industrial electric and technical units with large capacity

Electro technical units of more power on the base on ВСТП

Electro technical units of more power on the base on ВСТПSmart industry robots Smart industry robots

Risks and threats of Scenario and Road map realization

28

Scientific technological risks

Appearance of radical new challenges in the sphere of mechanical engineering

New class of ecological problems

Increasing technological gap

Abuse of rights of intellectual property on technologies

Conflicts between subjects and states

Lack of taking concrete decisions in the sphere of technological development

Lack of financial means, allocated on RAAD on mechanical engineering

Appearance of new technologies and materials

Lowering of science prestige and churn of professionals from the sphere of science

and production

29

Social-economical risks

Low susceptibility of economy sphere to innovations

inflation, world economical and financial crisis

Low maintenance of business to science (priveleged orientation on adaptation of

imported technologies)

Inefficiency of financing forms of fundamental and applied sciences

Risks of normative base and infrastructure

Risks, connected with ineffective management of scenario realization

Risks of negative relation to scenario realzation from the side of representatives

of governing bodies, civil society, mass media

Risks of incorrect competition for participation in scenario realization


30

Political risks

Absence of demand of scientific achievements in economy, patening abroad

Low efficiency of measures of state maintenance of innovation activity

Incremental innovation policy of developed countries

Malconformation of correlation of state, industry and scientific centers


31

Measures, directed on lowering of negative influence of risks

Scientific technological risks- Increasing of authenticity of given information in the sphere of mechanical engineering research.-Increasing of level of project management in conduction of NIR and their realization.-Increasing of level of patent protection of domestic developments in mechanical engineering. - Development of effective technologies and approaches of mechanical engineering researches and production. - Business stimulating on implementation of leading technologies of mechanical engineering. - Development of forecasting and definition of priority scientific and technical directions.-Constant monitoring for development of innovation technologies and materials in the sphere. -Constant support and renewal of product life cycle management.- Level increase of specialists training, their necessity, possibilities of realization of intellectual potential of a young specialists. Approaches implementation of non-stop training.

Social and economical risks- Creation of independent scientific expertise on definition of priority direction and projects of grant and program aid financing. - Motivated increasing of scientific researches financing.-Coherence of actions between state and enterprises on negotiation of crisis situation. -Development of science and production, renewal of experimental material and technical resources of national centers. -Development of priorities and more effective forms of RAAD financing.

Political risks-Application of technological forecasting, creation of favorable conditions for domestic inventors and rationalizers, modernization and monitoring of realization of legislative base on intellectual property.- Perfection of exist mechanisms of selection and financing of innovation projects. - Cooperation increase with developed countries in the sphere of new technologies usage and exchange of scientific and technical information.-Development of correlation mechanisms of state, industry (domestic and foreign subsoil users) and scientific centers across creation of scientific and technical advices on directions.

Development and research of coatings, increasing service characteristic of life limited parts

Development of technologies of complex mechanization of sale cattle breeding farms

Technologies of development of electric traction automobiles manufacture

Development of technological processes of auto components manufacture

Technologies development of manufacture of equipment for meat

production

Technologies development of generators and electric motors manufacture on the base of new high temperature

superconductor materials

Development and research of robot techniques complexes for paintng, welding and assembly and manufacture of cars parts

Technologies development of electric motors, separators and other products manufacture

Development of 3D printing technology of difficult parts manufacture

Regeneration process research of worked out sand mixture

Technologies development for resource saving complexes of cars for plant breeding manufacture

Development of developed new construction of hydraulic cars in particular gear pumps and manufacture technologies

Technology development of thermo friction process of teeth of tooth wheels

Development and implementation of effective methods increasing of strength properties and

corrosion resistance of screw blade

Development of technology of asynchronous traction electric motors (TEM) for diesel electric and electric locomotives

Development and research of adapted technology of tyres production made from

synthetic elasotmers and equipment for their manufacture

Development of technologies of executing mechanisms parts manufacture of tractors and FM from synthetic compositions

Development and research of technologies of cars manufacture and equipment for agricultural production processing

Development of integrated processes of cars creation on the base of constructed technological model and GALS/PLM technologies

Technology development for manufacture of three elements stamp welded trolley with axle load 25 tons for rail cars

THANKS FOR ATTENTION!Almaty city

January 23, 2014

33

Documents

Project results «System analysis and forecasting in the realm of science and technologies by the direction “Mechanical engineering” Expert group: Tyrtyshniy