RECLAIM Phase III- Promoting Best Practices for Early Warning

of Landslides in a Changing Climate Scenario

Outline

• Climate change and landslide occurrence-Is there any connection?

• What might be the consequences if there is a connection.

• Concept of Landslide early warning• Introduction to Program for Regional Capacity

Enhancement for Landslide Impact Mitigation (RECLAIM) – III - Promoting Best Practices for Early Warning of Landslides in a Changing Climate Scenario

Destruction to human settlements

Mulhalkelle Landslide

- Sri Lanka

Impacts

Impacts

Eastern Slope

Basalt Hills

Aggregate Quarry

EphemeralGully

EphemeralGully

Western SlopeQuarry

Excavation

Cherry Hills-PhilippinesPhoto from Eng Gill Cardiel

Removal of vegetation cover or disturbanceDebris slide at Dalican, Bontoc, Mt. Province

Weight of rain, rock debris, dead trees, garbage dumps, buildings, houses, stockpiles

Improperly built houses, aggravating instability of steep slopes, causing slope failure

La Trindad, Benguet

Concept of Landslide early warning

Providing climate Scenarios

Interpreting Regional climate outlook into local outlook

Translating local climate outlook into impact scenarios

Communication on local community responses/

feedback

Conceptual Framework

End-to-end Climate Information and Application System for Landslide Risk management

Gaps

Dissemination to at-risk communities

Observation/ monitoring

Warning formulation

Community response

Data analysis

Prediction Risk assessment

Emergency response plansPublic education/ awarenessMitigation programs

Potential impact assessment

Preparation of response options

Insufficient analysis capacity and warning communication facilities

Data analysis capability Skilled human resource Capacity to make use of threshold values

Local level potential impact assessment not done

Simplification Generation of Localized and relevantmessages

Institutional mechanism, linkages with at risk communities SOPs Dissemination Reaching vulnerable and at risk groups

Data sharing among agencies

Public awareness Forecasting limitations Lack of trainers/ facilitators Actions to respond to warning

Regulatory framework for warning Stakeholders involvement and roles

Program for Regional Capacity Enhancement for Landslide Impact

Mitigation RECLAIM

Funded by the Government of Norway

Implemented byby

Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC)Bangkok

Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI), Oslo

Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC)-BangkokNorwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) - Norway

Goal

• The main goal of the project is to share, enhance and develop good practices for early warning of landslides for sustainable development in areas affected by landslides. This will be achieved through:

• Gathering of data from existing approaches and through formation of joint working groups to identify critical factors and disseminate knowledge from participating countries.

Objectives of the project• Develop/introduce good practices for early warning of

landslides.• Form joint working groups with representatives of

landslide professionals to analyse the critical factors responsible for destabilisation of slopes.

• Introduce and develop existing as well as new concepts pertaining to precipitation threshold values for landslide initiation in different geological materials.

• Provide input to national and regional multi-hazard platforms for early warning and propose suitable preparedness measures to suit respective areas

Study on the current experience and status of EW for landslide risk

reduction

• The study will be based on the current practices– In what scale do partners operate (national,

Regional, Provincial, local)– What mechanisms they use to collect data– How do they get rainfall data for studies– How EWS operates at various levels– What are the challenges, gaps , difficulties

Factors considered in establishing the Mechanisms of landslide

occurrence in partner countries• What type of geotechnical materials exist in the most vulnerable

slopes (hotspot areas) in each of the participating countries?• How do the partners obtain such data (what methodology is

used)• What are the typical rainfall intensities in these vulnerable

regions, e.g 10 mm/hour, or 100mm/day etc, meteorological data• What has been the observed geotechnical response in the slope to

rainfall?• Is it creep, fast moving or sudden failure?• Any type of laboratory or field measurements used in defining the

geotechnical properties of the materials associated with such failure

Monitoring of landslides- Approach for predicting the behavior of slopes • What is the extent of availability of rain gauge data for

studies• What is the source agency and how it is being obtained for

landslide studies• Rainfall (rain gauge data) –) What is the most optimum

way for plotting the rainfall data(7 day, 5 day, 3 day)• Visual observations (movement of landslide)- what are the

methods use• Innovative methods of monitoring the slope movement at

local level• What experience partners have in observing the

movement of slopes

Approaches for predicting the behavior of landslides

• How Monitoring of landslide movement is being carried out in various countries

• What methods can be used;– Rainfall threshold limits– Groundwater data obtained from pressure sensors (pore

water pressure)– Monitoring of movement using data from displacement

sensors (extensometer, inclinometers)– Ground vibration measurements obtained from geophones– Total station (GPS technology)– Any other cost effective measures that can be undertaken at

community level

Important factors for landslide Early warning

• Experience (success stories)on implementation and operation of a landslide early warning system

• How data gathering can be done in target countries for developing a rainfall-landslide trigger relationship

• Institutional set-up for early warning • Monitoring and predicting• Communicating alerts to at risk communities• Response plans at various levels

Case studies on good practices

• What are the source agencies for landslide early warning in partner countries

• How is the Institutional set-up for early warning dissemination in partner countries; whether it is a local or central set-up, or a combination

• Info about the community participation including local stakeholders such as village community, schools and local police

• Role of participating agencies in relation to landslide Early warning

• What are the challenges in dissemination of EW messages • How to improve the existing mechanisms for EW

Location 6 days before 5 days before 4 days before 3 days before 2 days before 1 day beforeThe day of disaster 1day after

1. Location 1 50 68 139 180 280 314 337 -

2 4 12 5 0 4 119 230 -

3 18.1 35 99.9 135 169.5 213.6 222.6 222.6

4 0 5.6 52.7 64 73.4 267.6 294 312.9

5 80 171.2 290 358.8 385 473.8 621.3 740

6 40.8 53.6 70.6 77.6 138.8 316.4 358 374.1

7 11.4 20.3 55.2 46 102 112 87 -

18.8 25.3 49.2 65 65 68.1 460.6 492.1

22.9 110.3 230.3 230.3 278.8 307.4 336 353.7

Rainfall data collection from 6 days before a previous landslide

Formation of Joint working groups of landslide professionals of target

countries• The objectives of the project will be achieved

through collaboration between the technical partners / representatives of participating countries, working under different organisational cultures.

• Participants in the joint working groups are expected to gain knowledge and confidence on the good practices for early warning of landslides when they are applicable and achievable in different geological conditions.

Partners and organisation

• ADPC will be responsible for implementing the project with support from NGI.

• Project implementing institutions will select experts to participate in the project. It is planned to invite minimum 2 experts from each participating country, preferably one expert from the national disaster risk management agency and one technical expert with experience from landslide hazard assessment and mitigation.

• It is planned to have a total of three regional meetings through the project period tentatively for two to three days duration where all countries shall be represented.

• Experts from other professions which can provide input relevant to the project will also be invited.

RECLAIM Phase I & II

Target countries: Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Indonesia, Nepal, Philippines, Sri Lanka , Thailand,Vietnam

• Project durationSeptember 2009 –

2011

THANK YOU.