Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all © World Energy Council 2010 Millennium Development Goals Congress organised

Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all

© World Energy Council 2010

Millennium Development Goals Congress organised by Net Poleis

Milan, 20 October 2010

Elena Virkkala NekhaevDirector of Programmes, World Energy Council

20 October 2010, Milan


World Energy Council

• The only truly global, multi-energy and inclusive forum for thought-leadership and tangible engagement committed to sustainable energy future

• Established in 1923 as the World Power Conference to help rebuild the electricity grid in Europe after WWI, first Congress in 1924

• Secretariat in London• Charity under the UK law


Mission and Goals

To promote sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all

Four A‘s:

• Accessibility: How can energy demand be covered?• Availability: What energy system guarantees the best

long-term stability?• Acceptability: What solutions are sustainable and

henceacceptable?

• Accountability: How to define the political and regulatory

framework to secure the necessaryinvestments?


World Energy Council• Member Committees in more than 90 countries,

including over 3000 governmental, private sector and expert organisations

• National Member Committees are chaired by energy ministers, CEOs of major companies, experts etc.

• The WEC’s impartiality is ensured by its membership representing ALL energy sectors and by its governance: the Executive Assembly (one country one vote)


Albania Gabon Macedonia (Rep.) SerbiaAlgeria Germany Mexico SlovakiaArgentina Ghana Monaco SloveniaAustria Greece Mongolia South AfricaBelgium Hong Kong, China Morocco SpainBotswana Hungary Namibia Sri LankaBrazil Iceland Nepal SwazilandBulgaria India Netherlands SwedenCameroon Indonesia New Zealand SwitzerlandCanada Iran (Islamic Republic) Niger Syria (Arab RepChina Ireland Nigeria Taiwan, ChinaColombia Israel Norway TajikistanCongo (Dem. Rep.) Italy Pakistan Tanzania

Côte d'Ivoire Japan Paraguay ThailandCroatia Jordan Peru Trinidad & TobagoCyprus Kazakhstan Philippines TunisiaCzech Republic Kenya Poland TurkeyDenmark Korea (Rep.) Portugal UkraineEgypt (Arab Rep.) Latvia Qatar United Arab EmiratesEstonia Lebanon Romania United Kingdom

Ethiopia Libya/GSPLAJ Russian Federation United StatesFinland Lithuania Saudi Arabia UruguayFrance Luxembourg Senegal

WEC Member Committees

Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all© World Energy Council April 17, 2009

ABB Ltd E.On* Mercuria EnergyGroup Holding

Siemens AG

American ElectricPower Company

Eskom Oliver Wyman SNC-Lavalin Group Inc.

Alstom GdF-Suez PWC SPX*

BHP Billiton Ltd Hydro-Quebec Rio Tinto Alcan Tokyo Electric Power Co.

Daesung Group IBM RSW Inc. Vattenfall AB

Duke Energy Corporation

Korea Electric Power Corp.

Saudi Aramco Vestas*

EdF Electricité deFrance

KPMG Schneider Electric VNG - Verbundnetz Gas AG

Eni SpA Media Tenor SK Corporation

Patrons & Global Partners


WEC’s Work Programme

1. Survey of Energy Resources

2. Energy Efficiency: a Recipe for Success

3. Water for Energy

4. Performance of Generating Plant: New Metrics for Industry in Transition

5. Logistics Bottlenecks

6. Shale Gas

7. Energy and Urban Innovation


8. Pursuing Sustainability: 2010 Assessment of Countries’ Energy and Climate Policies

9. Biofuels: Policies, Standards and Technologies

10. Interconnectivity

11. European Energy and Climate Change Policy beyond 2012

12.Trade and Investment: Rules for Energy

13.Regional Energy Integration in Latin America

14.Energy Policies Scenarios to 2050

WEC’s Work Programme


• Triennial Global Event• Thousands of senior level participants• 20th World Energy Congress, November 2007,

Rome, Italy• 21st World Energy Congress, 12-16 September

2010, Montreal, Canada• 22nd World Energy Congress in autumn 2013 in

Daegu, Korea

World Energy Congress


21st World Energy CongressMontreal, 12-16 September 2010

• Over 7,000 participants (approx. 1,000 from Europe, 500 from Africa)

• Representatives from 130 countries• More than 70 energy ministers• Nearly 160 sessions


World Energy Congress in Montreal

Transport: One billion cars are on the road now and another billion will join by 2035 (IEA)

Oil: China’s energy policies will determine the future of the oil price (IEA)

Rick George (Suncor):„I’ve long believed the future is about expanding energy choice, not restricting it. First we need to get increasingly creative about finding and developing conventional energy sources, whether it’s oil, gas, coal or nuclear – and do so in ways that are environmentally and socially responsible. Second, we should use these conventional sources to help drive research and development of alternative energy and new environmental technologies.“


Politics of Energy

Y. de Boer, KPMG, former UNFCCC Ex. Director:“We need to put the rhetoric aside and focus on

implementation…”

Anne Lauvergeon, CEO AREVA (France):“We need to build trust. Ignoring the

fears of the people encourages irrationality.”

P. Duhaime, CEO, SNC-Lavalin (Canada):“The population will grow and so will the carbon-intensive

economy, but sustainable growth will be difficult with the current atmosphere of increasing tension and distrust among industry, government and the public.”


Energy Poverty

D. Kaberuka, President AfDB:“The whole African continent has less

energy capacity than the country of Spain.”“…for the last 10 years, economic

development is the best that it has been in the last 50 years.”

G.H. Boyce, CEO Peabody (USA):“Study after study – and pure common sense – tell us that

access to electricity helps people to live longer and better. Yet each year we lose more than 1.5 Million people to the effects of energy poverty. We can no longer turn our heads from these brutal statistics. We must put people first. That is the first value.”


Finance/Investments

D. Yergin, Chairman IHS CERA (USA):”…there remains one law that we all must

adhere to where energy is concerned, that is the law of long lead times.“

“It is very sobering to realize that much of the infrastructure that will be needed in 2030 to meet the energy needs of a growing world economy is still to be built.”

Y. de Boer, KPMG, former UNFCCC Ex. Director: “85% of the investment is coming from the private

sector and the rest from the public sector.”“Finance is the big question.”


Coal

V. Kumar Singh, Chairman Northern Coalfieds Ltd. (India):

“Coal is the only solution for the energy to elevate the standard of living.”

Rob Whitney, CEO CRL Energy (New Zealand):“New Zealand with 15 billion metric tonnes, has

more coal per capita than any other country in the world.”


Renewables

Hélène Pelosse, interim Director General, IRENA (Abu-Dhabi):

“Solar will see the most growth in the period to 2050.”

“We expect renewable energy to account for 50% of the global mix by 2050.”

K. A. Al-Falih, CEO Saudi Aramco (Saudi-Arabia):“… alternative sources of energy should grow – and indeed must

grow – in order to play their part in meeting that rising demand.”


Industrialised nations: Transformation of the energy system Financing

Growing economies: Development of the energy system

Making energy available

Poor regions: Fight against energy poverty

Instability

Energy is a Major Concern in All Countries Around the World


Number of people in millionswithout adequate access to electricity

Access to affordable energy is an absolute pre-requisite for achieving the Millennium Development Goals

116

805

683

851,495

466

Source: International Energy Agency 2009 World Energy Outlook and The World Bank, 2010.

3.6 Billion People Have No or Only Limited Access to Electricity


IndiaChina

Africa

Earth at Night

EuropeNorth America


Further increase of energy demand from 32% to 40% by 2030

Fossil fuels will play an important role globally for decades to come

Scarcity of capital is a more constraining bottleneck than reserves of crude oil, natural gas and coal

Reserves of fossil fuels substantially greater compared to previous estimates – the role of shale gas

Access to affordable energy and the role of energy as a driver of economic growth more important for many countries than climate change

The expected outcome of Cancun will not deliver a binding climate change treaty

Energy Demand is Growing

Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of allSource: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2010.

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

46%

Gro

wth

199

9 –

2009

27%

10%

25%

7%

Coal

Hydropower

Oil

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Coal: The World’s Fastest Growing Fuel for the Past Decade


Source: World Energy Outlook 2009, International Energy Agency; Annual Energy Outlook Forecasts, Energy Information Administration; Peabody analysis.

Asia = 90% of Long-Term Global Coal Demand

+690

+2,210+150

+50

+110

+380

Growth 2007 - 2030 (Million tonnes}

Global Use of Coal is Expected to

Grow by 53% by 2030


Solar*: 1,800 x Current Solar Generation

Wind*: 2.5 Million Wind Turbines

Nuclear: 1,150 Nuclear Plants

Natural gas: 70 tcf = 3 x Russia’s Production

Hydro: 2,250 Dams

To Replace Coal, the World would need:

Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2009.

* Requires backup baseload generation for cloudy and calm periods.

Stop Using Coal? Any Alternatives?

Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of allSource: Energy Information Administration International Energy Outlook 2010.

The World’s Largest Economies Are Fuelled by Coal

United China India States

Electricity from Coal 80% 71% 50%

Projected GDP Increase through 2030 380% 290% 95%

Projected GDP in 2030 $33 $11 $25 (Trillion US Dollars)


United Nations: “Energy is at the heart of most critical economic, environmental and developmental issues facing the world today. Clean, efficient, affordable and reliable energy services are indispensable for global prosperity.”

70% of people in DCs do not have access to electricity

In Africa: 2/3 of households – more than 580m people lack access to commercial energy

Many initiatives to meet the energy needs of the poorest people in developing countries, but limited success

The Importance of Energy Access


Energy Access – The Barriers

• Inadequate understanding of the issue and poor political support.

• Lack of specialist skills required for project initiation, implementation and later for system operation.

• Energy access cannot be addressed in isolation, an integrated political, technological and socio-economic solution is needed.


Household Electricity Consumption

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000N

ort

h A

me

rica

Mid

dle-E

ast

OE

CD

Asia

Eu

rop

e

La

tin

Am

erica

CIS

Ch

ina

Oth

er A

sia

Afr

ica

Ind

ia

Wo

rld

kW

h/h

ou

se

ho

ld

1990 2008


CO2 Emissions From Energy Combustion (Per Capita)


Final Energy Intensity In Relation To HDI (Human Development Index* 2007)

AfricaAngola

Congo India Lao

MoroccoSouth Africa

NicaraguaEgyptMiddle East VietnamBolivia Honduras

IndonesiaAlgeria

ParaguayTunisia ChinaThailand Ukraine

Peru TurkeyColombia BrazilRussia

BelarusMalaysiaVenezuela

Mexico

Uruguay ArgentinaChile

Poland

Slovakia

Europe

South KoreaGermanyUK

Italy

Spain

US

JapanFranceCanada

AustraliaNorway

0,50

0,55

0,60

0,65

0,70

0,75

0,80

0,85

0,90

0,95

1,00

0,05 0,10 0,15 0,20 0,25 0,30

Hu

ma

n D

eve

lop

men

t In

de

x

Final intensity (koe/$2005p)


The Gap is Growing

• New York (8 million) = Sub-Saharan Africa (800 million)

• 6,000 kWh/per person vs 63 kWh/person

• Ratio 1:100

India• 17% of the world population

• 4% of the world energy consumption

• 20% no access to electricity


Energy Policies

• 40% of the global population (2.7 billion people) rely on

traditional biomass for cooking

• 1.2 billion people will still have no electricity by 2030 if

governments do not change their policies

• US$36 billion per year investment by 2030 or 3% per year

of global energy investments to 2030


Money Is Not a Problem: It Is a Solution

Annual Spending by 50+ in the UK USD• Cosmetics

3.3bn • Beauty treatments & hairdressing

3.5bn • Clothing and shoes 19.4bn

26.2bn

Annual Spending on Bottled Water 30.0bn


Thank you for your attention!

For further information contact World Energy Council

www.worldenergy.org

http://www.worldenergy.org/

Documents

Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all © World Energy Council 2010 Millennium Development Goals Congress organised