PROPORTIONALITY, DISTRICTING AND OPEN LISTSHow to reconcile them?

Author: Leon Malazogu

2

Aim To analyze the distribution of seats

given: 7 multi-member districts Open lists (within districts) Single vote choice Gender quota of 30% Threshold of 5% (does not apply to political

entities representing ethnic communities)

3

Principles Ranked In order of priority

MustProportionalityRepresentation of communitiesGender representation

DesirableDirect accountabilityGeographic representation

Not all principles can be met. Search for the best trade-off

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Reconciling proportionality & districting

Main Principle: strict nation-wide proportionality Trade-off at the expense of district

proportionality After consideration of many options, the most

superior is the combination of 70-75 seats to be elected at district level and 25-30 compensatory seats to compensate nation-wide proportionality

Some countries draw up a separate compensatory (closed) list, but we decided to draw the compensatory candidates from the district list

5

General Parameters Assume there are 6

parties in total contesting elections

Example party results

Total ballots, like in 2007 elections

Party A: 330,000Party B: 205,000Party C: 120,000Party D: 90,481Party E: 45,000Party F: 30,000

Total electorate: 1,567,690Total valid ballots: 820,481Turnout (%): 52.34%

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Using Example FiguresAdvantages Large discrepancies that

rarely occur in reality Disproportionate

concentration of some parties in some districts

Disproportionate strength of leaders

Disproportionate concentration of votes for women candidates in some regions/parties

Very different turn-out …

Disadvantages

Only 6 parties, missing very small ones

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Determining total number of seats

And so it continues, until all seats have been distributed

Party A: 330,000Party B: 205,000Party C: 120,000Party D: 90,481Party E: 45,000Party F: 30,000

330,000205,000120,00090,48145,00030,000

110,00068,33340,00030,16015,00010,000

66,000 47,143 36,667 30,000 25,38541,000 29,286 22,778 18,636 15,76924,000 17,143 13,333 10,909 9,23118,096 12,926 10,053 8,226 6,9609,000 6,429 5,000 4,091 3,4626,000 4,286 3,333 2,727 2,308

Divide by: 1 3 5 7 9 11 13

• The votes are divided by 1, 3, 5, …

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Breakdown of seats

Party F is dropped as it does not pass the threshold

Four more seats are granted to other political entities, according to the same formula

No of votes: %Party A: 330,000 40.22%Party B: 205,000 24.99%Party C: 120,000 14.63%Party D: 90,481 11.03%Party E: 45,000 5.48%Party F: 30,000 3.66%

Without With40 4225 2615 1511 115 64 0

100 100

Threshold

1385320

30

Gender Quota

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Calculating the size of districts Total electorate: 1,567,690 Divided by 70 seats Yields 22,396 voters represented by one

Member of Parliament Divide electorate of each regional/district

by district magnitude (22,396) Then calculate and rank largest remainders Adding the above yields the total share of

each district in the Assembly of Kosovo

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Calculating the size of districts

A: Share of district B: Share of district (full

integer) C: Largest Remainder D: Seats to the districtPejë 2007

Deçan 38,806Istog 40,979Klinë 38,098Pejë 94,512Total 212,395GjakovëRahovec 46,008Gjakovë 86,953Malishevë 39,263Total 172,224PrizrenDragash 34,964Prizren 141,299Therandë 53,751Total 230,014MitrovicëMitrovicë 81,943Leposavic 17,029Skenderaj 44,953Vushtrri 58,856Z. Potok 7,713Zveçan 8,628Total 219,122

GjilanGjilan 93,463Viti 44,407Kamenicë 43,316Novobërdë 3,506Total 184,692FerizajShtime 20,482Kaçanik 34,830Shtërpcë 12,120Ferizaj 89,741Total 157,173PrishtinëGllogoc 41,492F. Kosovë 29,729Lipjan 52,561Kastriot 21,531Podujevë 70,660Prishtinë 176,097Total 392,070Total 1,567,690

A

9.48

7.69

10.27

9.78

B

9

7

10

9

C

0.48

0.69

0.27

0.78

D

9

8

10

10

A

8.25

7.02

17.5170

B

8

7

1767

C

0.28

0.02

0.51

D

8

7

1870

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What data to use? The 70/30 ratio

should be fixed (could also be 75/25)

But distribution of the 70 seats should not be fixed

It should reflect the size of the district to give it adequate power in the Assembly

It is preferable to use population data

For as long as these are not satisfactory, it is better to use voters lists, ideally determine the size 6 months ahead of elections

In case of early elections, use data from previous elections

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Seven different elections?

The same calculation for every district, treating them as separate election

A B C D E FPejë 38,000 29,999 30,000 25,000 1,000 3,000 126,999Prishtinë 80,000 60,000 35,000 20,000 10,000 13,000 218,000Ferizaj 31,000 8,000 7,000 8,000 850 3,700 58,550Mitrovicë 35,000 42,000 5,000 1,481 950 2,500 86,931Prizren 63,000 40,000 12,000 5,000 25,000 4,000 149,000Gjakovë 28,000 10,001 25,000 18,000 1,200 1,500 83,701Gjilan 55,000 15,000 6,000 13,000 6,000 2,300 97,300

330,000 205,000 120,000 90,481 45,000 30,000

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Sample figures: Prishtina Intentional

huge variations (among parties and districts)

As realistic data as possible

392,070A B C D E F Total

80,000 60,000 35,000 20,000 10,000 13,000 218,0007 4 3 2 1 1 182 4 0 1 0 0 7

1 Male 18,000 13,200 8,000 3,000 7,000 5,170 54,3702 Female 3,500 2,900 1,760 1,450 1,000 1,200 11,8103 M 10,600 8,600 5,310 2,950 630 3,600 31,6904 F 1,700 2,700 700 1,350 185 560 7,1955 M 9,800 5,800 4,900 2,900 450 1,000 24,8506 F 1,600 1,900 690 900 160 460 5,7107 M 6,400 5,600 3,500 2,100 350 500 18,4508 F 1,300 1,600 650 600 70 200 4,4209 M 5,100 4,101 2,051 2,051 5 250 13,557

10 F 1,200 999 500 494 30 60 3,28311 M 3,690 2,440 1,670 937 4 8,74112 F 900 900 450 300 29 2,57913 M 2,400 1,800 900 900 3 6,00314 F 800 600 300 6 28 1,73415 M 2,150 1,600 800 20 2 4,57216 F 700 500 250 5 27 1,48217 M 2,060 1,060 760 15 1 3,89618 F 600 400 200 4 26 1,23019 M 1,900 900 670 10 3,48020 F 500 300 80 3 88321 M 1,700 700 425 5 2,83022 F 400 200 60 66023 M 1,400 600 225 2,22524 F 300 100 50 45025 M 1,300 500 100 1,900

80,000 60,000 35,000 20,000 10,000 13,000 218,000

Prishtinë: 18 seats

Men 176,564Women 41,436

19.0% of total

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Calculation of party seats Same procedure for determining the number

of seats per party within the district

As Party F did not pass the threshold, the only seat that it would have won in a district, is added to the compensatory seats.

Prishtinë 18 seats 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15Party A: 80,000 80,000 26,667 16,000 11,429 8,889 7,273 6,154 5,333Party B: 60,000 60,000 20,000 12,000 8,571 6,667 5,455 4,615 4,000Party C: 35,000 35,000 11,667 7,000 5,000 3,889 3,182 2,692 2,333Party D: 20,000 20,000 6,667 4,000 2,857 2,222 1,818 1,538 1,333Party E: 10,000 10,000 3,333 2,000 1,429 1,111 909 769 667

Party F: 13,000 13,000 4,333 2,600 1,857 1,444 1,182 1,000 867

15392,070

A B C D E F Total80,000 60,000 35,000 20,000 10,000 13,000 218,000

1 Male 18,000 13,200 8,000 3,000 7,000 5,170 54,3702 Female 3,500 2,900 1,760 1,450 1,000 1,200 11,8103 M 10,600 8,600 5,310 2,950 630 3,600 31,6904 F 1,700 2,700 700 1,350 185 560 7,1955 M 9,800 5,800 4,900 2,900 450 1,000 24,8506 F 1,600 1,900 690 900 160 460 5,7107 M 6,400 5,600 3,500 2,100 350 500 18,4508 F 1,300 1,600 650 600 70 200 4,4209 M 5,100 4,101 2,051 2,051 5 250 13,557

10 F 1,200 999 500 494 30 60 3,28311 M 3,690 2,440 1,670 937 4 8,74112 F 900 900 450 300 29 2,57913 M 2,400 1,800 900 900 3 6,00314 F 800 600 300 6 28 1,73415 M 2,150 1,600 800 20 2 4,57216 F 700 500 250 5 27 1,48217 M 2,060 1,060 760 15 1 3,89618 F 600 400 200 4 26 1,23019 M 1,900 900 670 10 3,48020 F 500 300 80 3 88321 M 1,700 700 425 5 2,83022 F 400 200 60 66023 M 1,400 600 225 2,22524 F 300 100 50 45025 M 1,300 500 100 1,900

80,000 60,000 35,000 20,000 10,000 13,000 218,000

Prishtinë: 18 seats

Who exactly? Start from

the highest 18,000 13,200 …

Party A: 7 seats …

18,000 13,200

A B C D E F7 4 3 2 1 1

Prishtinë: 18 seats

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District mandates to individuals

Do the same for each region

Gender rule enforced within each district, as in the last elections at the Kosovo-wide levelA

80,0007

1 M 18,0002 F 3,5003 M 10,6004 F 1,7005 M 9,8006 F 1,6007 M 6,4008 F 1,3009 M 5,100

10 F 1,200

B60,000

413,200

2,9008,6002,7005,8001,9005,6001,6004,101

999

C35,000

38,0001,7605,310

7004,900

6903,500

6502,051

500

D20,000

23,0001,4502,9501,3502,900

9002,100

6002,051

494

E10,000

17,0001,000

630185450160350705

30

F13,000

15,1701,2003,600

5601,000

46050020025060

A B C D E FPejë 3 2 2 2 0 0Prishtinë 7 4 3 2 1 1Ferizaj 4 1 1 1 0 0Mitrovicë 4 5 1 0 0 0Prizren 5 3 1 0 1 0Gjakovë 3 1 2 2 0 0Gjilan 5 1 1 1 0 0

31 17 11 8 2 0

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District Threshold One reason why even large districts have a

mild majoritarian effect is that their natural threshold is larger than the 5% national threshold.

• The natural threshold at the national level is 1%.

District Share of national MPs

Natural Threshold

Pejë 9 11.1Gjakovë 8 12.5Prizren 10 10.0Mitrovicë 10 10.0Gjilan 8 12.5Ferizaj 7 14.3Prishtinë 18 5.6

Above BelowPejë 19.7% 2.4%Prishtinë 4.6%Ferizaj 13.7% 6.3%Mitrovicë 5.8% 2.9%Prizren 8.1% 3.4%Gjakovë 11.9% 1.8%Gjilan 13.4% 6.2%

Effect of district threshold in the model data

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District and National Proportionality

Districts produce proportional results for each district. As districts are large, they produce largely

proportional results as nation-wide results, but not strictly so.

Discrepancies between strict proportional and regional proportional are presented below:

Factoring in Kosovo’s 4 minority seats would have further increased this gap

A B C D E F31 17 11 8 2 0

District PR 44.9% 24.6% 15.9% 11.6% 2.9% 0.0%Nation-wide PR 40.2% 25.0% 14.6% 11.0% 5.5% 3.7%Gap 4.7% -0.3% 1.3% 0.6% -2.6% -3.7%

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An example of a smaller district Given

Ferizaj’s 7 seats, Party F with 6.3% and Party E with 1.5% would not pass the natural threshold.

The smaller the districts, small parties lose more

Party A B C D E FVotes 31,000 8,000 7,000 8,000 850 3,700Percentage 52.9% 13.7% 12.0% 13.7% 1.5% 6.3%Seats 4 1 1 1 0 0

11,000 2,300 1,290 4,500 820 1,4221,560 450 645 406 2 2345,980 1,980 1,070 1,500 10 1,3401,300 440 640 105 1 45,500 1,560 665 1,095 9 700

480 430 335 104 0

Ferizaj: 7 seats

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The Best Trade-off

The totals were?

Key challenge: to balance nation-wide proportionality and district representation

Hence the compensation seats42 26 15 11 6 0 100

A B C D E FPejë 3 2 2 2 0 0Prishtinë 7 4 3 2 1 1Ferizaj 4 1 1 1 0 0Mitrovicë 4 5 1 0 0 0Prizren 5 3 1 0 1 0Gjakovë 3 1 2 2 0 0Gjilan 5 1 1 1 0 0

31 17 11 8 2 0 69

How many left to compensate?11 9 4 3 4 0 31

Seats awarded from the districts:

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Gender Representation at the District

Due to the smaller lists being contested, less likely to win by merit

9 more women needed to satisfy the quota

The compensatory seats would have to draw 9 candidates of the less represented gender, along the others

Merit Quota Total Men TotalPejë 0 4 4 5 9Prishtina 1 4 5 13 18Ferizaj 0 1 1 6 7Mitrovica 0 2 2 8 10Prizren 2 1 3 7 10Gjakovë 0 3 3 5 8Gjilan 0 2 2 6 8

3 17 20 50 70

Women elected by:

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Compensation Mechanism Multiple role to

compensate for: Party proportionality Gender quota

Size: 25-30 (here taken 30) seats to compensate for loss of proportionality at the district level

A parallel list is not a good idea. It is better to draw the next 30 candidates with most votes, regardless of the district

Row one: the number of women elected from the districts.

Row two: the number of women to ensure that the 30% quota was met

Last row: number of women to be elected from the compensatory seats

Party A B C D E FWomen 9 5 3 3 0Total 13 8 5 3 2 0

to add: 4 3 2 0 0 0

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The compensatory seats and gender

Final distribution of the compensatory seats looks as following:

Of the compensatory seats, the table above illustrates the gender breakdown

Of the compensatory seats, the table above illustrates the gender breakdown

The distribution of seats to the less represented gender yielded the following table

Only Party D has met the quota at the district level already

A B C D E FMen 7 6 3 3 2 0

Women 4 3 2 0 2 011 9 4 3 4 0 31

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Final Distribution Sample: Prishtina

17 MPs directly (one less due to the F Party)

7 additional MPs drawn from Prishtina to fulfill overall proportionality

A B C D E80,000 60,000 35,000 20,000 10,000

7 4 3 2 1

2 4 0 1 01 M 18,000 13,200 8,000 3,000 7,0002 F 3,500 2,900 1,760 1,450 1,0003 M 10,600 8,600 5,310 2,950 6304 F 1,700 2,700 700 1,350 1855 M 9,800 5,800 4,900 2,900 4506 F 1,600 1,900 690 900 1607 M 6,400 5,600 3,500 2,100 3508 F 1,300 1,600 650 600 709 M 5,100 4,101 2,051 2,051 5

10 F 1,200 999 500 494 3011 M 3,690 2,440 1,670 937 412 F 900 900 450 300 29

Prishtinë: 18 seats

District seats

Compensatory seats (drawn from the district)

elected due to quota

elected directly at the districtelected from compensatory seats

elected as less represented gender (from compensatory seats)

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What if? What if two candidates

within the same district have the same number of votes, and happen to be 8th and 9th when eight seats are contested?

Response: Both are elected, and compensatory seats are subtracted by one

Gjilan 8 seats 1 3 5 7 9 11Party A: 55,000 55,000 18,333 11,000 7,857 6,111 5,000Party B: 15,000 15,000 5,000 3,000 2,143 1,667 1,364Party C: 6,000 6,000 2,000 1,200 857 667 545Party D: 13,000 13,000 4,333 2,600 1,857 1,444 1,182Party E: 6,000 6,000 2,000 1,200 857 667 545Party F: 2,300 2,300 767 460 329 256 209

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Other Issues Pertaining to this Matter

Candidate Eligibility

…

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Any Questions?

Written inquiries to: malazogu@yahoo.com

Copyright 2008 @ Leon Malazogu