Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Water:A Source of Future Conflicts
Between
India and PakistanBy
Maj Gen AK Chaturvedi, AVSM, VSM (Retd) 12 Apr 2016
“Water scarcity threatens economic and social gains and is a potent fuel for wars and conflict.”
Ban ki MoonSecretary General
United nations Organisation
“Wars of 21st Century will be fought over water.”
Ismail SerageldinVice President
World Bank (Environmental Affairs)
Introduction
Relevant Issues- Criticality of Water Finite Nature of Water Water and Socio Economic Development River Valley Civilizations Water and conflicts- a historical legacy Water & National Security Case of International Water Channels Water as a Human Right in 2010 by UN Declaration of the Rights of Indigenous
people(DRIP) of 2007 Goal-7 of MDG
Impediments to Water Security- Rising Population Pollution Water required for Industry Water Intensive Agriculture Global Warming Inefficient Rain Water Harvesting Systems National Interests Vs Riparian Rights Soil Chemistry
INDUS RIVER BASININDUS RIVER BASIN
MOUNT MOUNT KAILASHKAILASH
• WESTERN RIVERS – INDUS , CHENAB & JHELUM.• EASTERN RIVERS – RAVI , BEAS & SUTLEJ• INDUS & SUTLEJ ORIGINATE IN TIBET AS SUCH INDIA IS
MIDDLE RIPARIAN• ORIGIN FOR OTHER THREE IN INDIA AS SUCH INDIA IS UPPER
RIPARIAN
IND
US
INDUS
INDUS
SUTLEJ
RAVI
CHENABJHEL
UM
INDUS RIVER INDUS RIVER SYSTEMSYSTEM
KABUL
BEAS
MARALA H/W
MANGLA
TRIMMU BARRAGE
RASUL H/W
PANJAD H/W
KALABAGH H/W
MADHOPUR H/W
CHASMA BARRAGE
TAUNSA BARRAGE
INDUS RIVER BASIN• Single River System
Central To Pak, Covers an Area Of 4,50,000 Sq Miles.• Source of Water (>40%) - Tibetan Glaciers – Affected by Global Warming.• Second Largest Sediment Body on Earth - Regulating Structures Require Heavy Maintenance- Tarbela, Mangla And Chasma- Up to 25% Loss Of Storage Space.• 46% Of Water Volume Originates From Indus & Balance From Tributaries Including those From West.• Most Importance Source Of Water To Punjab & Sind.• Backbone Of Agriculture & Food Production In Pak. • Reduced Current Of Flow In Lower Reaches Resulting Into Increase In Salinity Of Indus Delta.
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL- 20000MWINDICATED POTENTIAL- 16480 MW
RETREAT OF GLACIER- 50YR- INCREASE IN FLOW- FLOODSNEXT 50 YR- DECREASE IN THE FLOW BY 30-40%AFTER 3 DECADES INDUS IS LIKELY TO BECOME A SEASONAL RIVER
HISTORICAL BACKGROUNDHISTORICAL BACKGROUND
• 1859-1915- British Built Canals For Flood Control & Irrigation
• 1947 – Partition-– Key Head Works In
India.– Bulk Of Canals &
Farmland In Pak• 1948-
• No Political Agreement Over Water Sharing
• Standstill Agreement Between India – Pak Expired On 01 Apr 48
• India Cuts Flow, Pak Crops Fail, Pakistanis Call For War
• 1952-60. World Bank Mediates - Results In Signing Of Indus Water Treaty
HistoryHistory
Jhel
um
Sutlej
Ravi CH
ENAB
IND
US
MARALA HW
SULEMANKI HW
MANGLA DAM
CHEN
AB
CHASMA HW
FIROZPUR HW
MADHOPUR HW
“ “ No armies with bombs and shellfire No armies with bombs and shellfire could devastate a land so thoroughly as could devastate a land so thoroughly as Pakistan could be devastated by simple Pakistan could be devastated by simple expedient of India’s permanently expedient of India’s permanently shutting off the source of water that shutting off the source of water that keeps the fields and people of Pakistan keeps the fields and people of Pakistan green.”green.”
- - David Lilienthal David Lilienthal (chief interlocutor and (chief interlocutor and architect of Indus water treaty) architect of Indus water treaty)
Division of River Waters. Assigned Ravi, Beas And Sutlej (Eastern Rivers) to
India for Exclusive Use- India to Pay One Time Compensation of £ 62 Million to Pakistan for the Loss of Water Rights of Eastern Rivers to Her
Waters Of Indus, Jhelum & Chenab (Western Rivers) To Pak, However India Permitted Non Consumptive Use Of Waters Of These Rivers
Tech Approval By Pak On Projects with respect to Western Rivers
Dispute Resolution Through Arbitration, Neutral Expert
Elements of Indus Water Treaty
Distinct Tilt in Favour of PakistanNo Provision for The State of J&K
“Every factor was against us. The only sensible thing to do was to try and get a settlement , even though it might be second best, because if we did not, we stood to loose every thing . The very fact that Pak had to be content with waters of three Western Rivers underlined the importance of having physical control over the higher reaches for max utilization of the growing needs of West Pakistan. In my mind therefore the only solution of the Kashmir issue acquired a sense of urgency on the conclusion of the treaty.”
Field Marshal Mohammad Ayub Khan
Pak Canal System River Indus &
Tributaries Main Source Of Water Supply
One Of The Largest Canal Irrigation Systems In The World
There Are 3 Large Dams, 85 Small Dams, 19 Barrages, 12 Inter Link Canals
Canals In South & East Defence Oriented
RCC
Jhel
um
Sutlej
Ravi
IND
US
CHEN
AB
IND
US
MARALA HW
SULEMANKI HW
MANGLA DAM
CHEN
AB CHASMA
HW
Present Usage/ Status Total Mean Flow From Eastern Rivers - 33 MAF Total Mean Flow From Western Rivers – 136
MAF India Using For Irrigation - 0.792 MAF
(Against 1.34 MAF Permitted) Storage/ Pondage- 0.026 MAF at Baglihar
(Against Total Entitlement Of 3.6 MAF on Western Rivers)
Even If India Uses Full Entitlement It Will Amount To 3 % Of Mean Flow
India Entitled 33 MAF Of Eastern Rivers- Using Only 30 MAF, 2-3 MAF Of Water Flows Unutilized To Pak Pak Still Alleges Mis–appropriation By
India!!
Treaty not Keeping Pace with Times -
Increased Urbanization - Increased Demands & Changed Water Needs
Impact Of Global Warming - Water Resources Under Stress
Allocation Of Water Interpreted Differently – Both Countries regard it as Unfair
Too Many Engineering Provisions – Make The Treaty Complex.
Drafted Stringently For India - Does not meet India’s Needs (Specially J&K Including PoK)
No Provisions For Periodic Review.
Problem with the Treaty
Pak Problems Pak receives 180 BCM of water, 75% of it diverted into canal but only 30%
reaches to crop due to seepage and evaporation Demand-sup gap- (-)102 BCM likely to become 31 MAF in 2025 12 dams on Kabul River will further reduce the availability of water in Indus and if
the entire amount as stipulated by the Indus Water Treaty is taken out availability for Pak will further go down
The current water availability below ‘water scarce‘ level Storage capacity- 30 days Ground water-51.3 BCM- depletion 10 ft per year Loss due to Salination of ground water -25% destroyed Pollution-
Northern part-64% microbiological contamination Central- chemical& microbiological poisoning Central and southern- arsenic poisoning
Population : 234 million by 2030 (growth of 35%) from 33.7 million in 1951
PAK INTERNAL DYNAMICS & PAK INTERNAL DYNAMICS & CONCERNSCONCERNS
Pak Internal Dynamics River System Accounts for
65% Of Water Flow in Pak. Serious Differences Among
PoK, Punjab & Sind on Water Sharing – Kalabagh Dam, Bhasa Daimar and Mangla Controversy.
Widespread Protest Against Proposed Dams at Mianwali, Chilas, Gilgit & Raising Height of Mangla Dam.
Status of Dimar Bhasa Project
Failure of Institutions Like Water & Power Development Authority (WAPDA) & Indus River Sys Auth (IRSA)
GILGIT
KALABAGH DAM
MIANWALI
CHILAS
MANGLA DAM MARALA H/W
RAVI
SUTLEJ
JHEL
UM
CHENAB
IND
US
IND
US
INDU
S
BASHA DAM SITE
Likelihood of India Using Water as a Weapon as Treaty Allows Tapping of Western Rivers by Her for Hydropower and Other Non Consumptive Use
No of Hydropower Projects Planned by India - Cumulative Effect of Dams to Influence Timing of Flow
Indian Usage May Affect The Quantity of Water Flowing into Pak- Mangla May Not Get Filled and In Sind 87 Km Sea Ingress- Issue Of Food Security Height of Dams Dictates India's Capability to Accelerate, Decelerate or Block Flow of Water – Bearing on Mil Operations
Pak's Concerns
CONTD/…
India’s Operational Advantage – Capacity To Control Waters specially Of Chenab, Ravi And Sutlej- Capability To Block Waters Flowing Into
Canal Network Meant For Defence Control Of Water Will Also Enable India to
Block Water Sup Or Inundate Areas During Hostilities
India Can Control Mob & Reach Of Pak Forces
Pak's Concerns
Treaty a Coercive Tool for India to Flood or Dry Up Pak !
Reality… Dams on Eastern rivers - an inherent advantage to
India to control the flow – though never exercised Western rivers -
entitlement of waters for irrigation and pondage (0.792 MAF/1.34 MAF and 0.026 MAF/3.6 MAF) - not fully utilised by India : Baghlihar controversy
Diversion of water from these rivers - no canals constructed by India
65% of catchment area of these rivers lies in Pak/ territory controlled by Pak
Pak’s interest in Kashmir - control of water of western rivers ??
Pak loosing 40% through seepage- not addressed Wastage of water in def canal
Treaty a Tool for Pak to Whip Up Anti India Sentiments
MIL IMPLICATIONSMIL IMPLICATIONS
Impact on Mil Operations in Pakistan
Pak Appreciation of India’s Water Regulating Capability
Storage Capability- India Along Chenab - 1,53,600 AF.
However , Present Storage Capacity - 66,000 AF.
Discharge Capability- Total Discharge - 16 Lac Cusecs Through The Three Dams.
Max Discharge India Can Sustain - 4 Lac Cusecs W/O Affecting Power
Generation – Un Likely.
Effect of Sudden Release of Water- Release of 4 Lac Cusecs
Downstream of Akhnoor, will Result in Floods up to Marala HW
& Isolation of Chicken’s Neck – Un Likely.
View From KashmirTreaty Unfavorable, Impediment to Economic Development State Deprived of Hydroelectric Potential of Rivers.2002 Resolution in J&K Assembly Demanding Scrapping of The Treaty.Growing Concern & Anger Over Negative Consequences of Treaty, Pleading For a Review.
Initiatives on Projects will possibly draw Kashmir closer to India !!
THE WAY AHEADTHE WAY AHEAD
What India Should Attempt ?....Counter Pak's Allegations by Raising the Issue of Chinese Dam on Indus
Build Storage on The Western Rivers up to Permitted 3.6 MAF
Engineer Better Regulation of Flow of Eastern Rivers Going Unutilized to Pakistan
Use Water as Political Leverage & Even Threaten Unilateral Abrogation of the Treaty
Renegotiate Based on ‘Water Needs’ & Not on ‘Water Rights’.
?
