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UNL
Gallup Research Center
Public Opinion on
Gun Control Revisited: Collective Consensus or
Unbridgeable Ideological Divide?
Bryan C. Parkhurst Survey Research and Methodology Program
University of Nebraska – Lincoln
2012 AAPOR Conference
May 20, 2012
UNL
Gallup Research Center 2
• Gun Control Paradox (Schuman & Presser, 1976, 1981)
– Strong public support for increased legislation controlling firearms
as seen in survey results, but little legislative action by the federal
government.
– “The gap between the demands of public opinion and policy [on
gun control] is enormous.” (Weissberg 1976, 130).
• Gun Culture (Melzer, 2009)
– “regardless of one’s position on the Second Amendment, guns
are a visible part of American Culture” (Melzer 2009, 29).
– Rugged Individualism
Background
Bryan Parkhurst
UNL
Gallup Research Center 3
78
66
53 57
49
43
2
7 8 7 8 11
17 25
38 35 41
44
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
In general, do you feel that the laws covering the sale of firearms should be made more strict, less
strict, or kept as they are now?
More strict Kept as they are now Less strict No Opinion
Trends in Public Opinion on Gun Control
Bryan Parkhurst
Gallup, 2012
UNL
Gallup Research Center 4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Strongregulations
Moderateregulations
Basicregulations
No or very fewregulations
unsure
When thinking about gun ownership rights and gun laws, which of the following comes closest to your
personal opinion?
Bryan Parkhurst
April 9-12, 2012 by Reuters
UNL
Gallup Research Center 5
42
21
27
6 4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Strongregulations
Moderateregulations
Basicregulations
No or very fewregulations
unsure
When thinking about gun ownership rights and gun laws, which of the following comes closest to your
personal opinion?
Bryan Parkhurst
April 9-12, 2012 by Reuters
63% 33%
UNL
Gallup Research Center 6
• General Social Survey (1984-2010)
– National Opinion Research Center at the
University of Chicago
– Biennial study
– Face to face interviewing (small
telephone component)
– Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing
The Data Set
Bryan Parkhurst
UNL
Gallup Research Center 7
72% 76% 82%
79%
84% 80% 79%
75%
28%
24%
18%
21%
16%
20% 21% 25%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
Would you favor or oppose a law which would require a person to obtain a police permit before he
or she could buy a gun?
Favor Oppose
Trends in Public Opinion on Gun Control
Bryan Parkhurst
GSS
UNL
Gallup Research Center 8
72%
82% 84% 80%
75%
28%
18% 16%
20% 25%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
Would you favor or oppose a law which would require a person to obtain a police permit before he
or she could buy a gun?
Favor Oppose
Trends in Public Opinion on Gun Control
Bryan Parkhurst
GSS
UNL
Gallup Research Center 9
78
66
57
43
2
7 7 11
17 25
35
44
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
In general, do you feel that the laws covering the sale of firearms should be made more strict, less
strict, or kept as they are now?
More strict Less strict Kept as they are now No Opinion
Trends in Public Opinion on Gun Control
Bryan Parkhurst
Gallup, 2012
UNL
Gallup Research Center 10
• Created an index of Individualism-
Collectivism using the GSS
• Tested as a predictor of Respondent
– Gun ownership
– Attitudes toward requiring police permits
• Found the index to be a significant
positive predictor of both gun
ownership and attitudes toward
requiring permits.
Celinska’s Method
Bryan Parkhurst
UNL
Gallup Research Center 11
• Consists of four variables
Should government improve the standard of living?
Should government do more or less?
Should government help pay for medical care?
Should government aid blacks?
• Forms a scale ranging 4 – 20
• Low end relates to more individualism
• High end relates to more collectivism
Individualism-Collectivism index
(ICIndex2)
Bryan Parkhurst
UNL
Gallup Research Center 12
11
11.2
11.4
11.6
11.8
12
12.2
12.4
Mean ICindex2 by year
Bryan Parkhurst
UNL
Gallup Research Center 13
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Mean ICindex2 by year
Bryan Parkhurst
UNL
Gallup Research Center 14
• Logistic regression using the 1984 to
2010 GSS
• Dependent variable: Respondent
opinion on gun permits (gunlaw)
• Total observations: 9801
Method:
Bryan Parkhurst
UNL
Gallup Research Center 15
• ICIndex2
• Fear of crime
• Prior burglary
• Prior robbery
• Being a hunter
• Southern
• Mountain West
• Ruralism
• Education
• Income
• White
• Male
• Being Protestant
• Married
• Age
• Political Views
Celinska’s Model
Independent Variables
Bryan Parkhurst
UNL
Gallup Research Center 16
Positive Predictors of opinion on Gun Control
Results
Bryan Parkhurst
• p<.01
– ICIndex2
– Gun Ownership
– Being a Hunter
– Living in Mountain
Region
– Being Male
– Polviews
• p<.05
– Protestant
– Victim of Robbery
• p<.10
– Living in the
South R-Square=.117
UNL
Gallup Research Center 17
• Even with changing public opinion on
gun control over the past 12 years,
Celinska’s Index of Individualism and
Collectivism still holds as a strong
predictor of respondent views on gun
control as well as respondent level gun
ownership.
Conclusion
Bryan Parkhurst
UNL
Gallup Research Center 18
• Implications on the Gun Control Paradox – While support for stricter gun legislation has waned,
gun laws nationally have become more lenient.
– Relaxation of gun control includes:
• Expanded concealed carry
– Expansion of state reciprocity
– Concealed carry allowed in bars (5 states)
– Conceal carry allowed in national parks
• Castle doctrine and “stand your ground”
• Supreme Court decisions against strict gun laws
Conclusion
Bryan Parkhurst
UNL
Gallup Research Center 19
• The gun control debate is not over.
• While the Gun Control Paradox may
be on the decline, Individualism and
Collectivism in America are important
factors in gun control opinion research.
• Further work on Individualism and
Collectivism would greatly aid opinion
researchers and more work is needed.
Implications
Bryan Parkhurst
UNL
Gallup Research Center 21
Appendix1: GSS Question Wording
Bryan Parkhurst
UNL
Gallup Research Center 22
• On supporters of requiring gun permits, Howard Schuman
(2008) notes “even decisions to send letters and funds remain
more with individuals, rather than elicited as part of well-run
campaigns”
Individualism
Bryan Parkhurst
