Public Policy Outlook for K-12 Instructional Materials Jay Diskey Executive Director AAP School Division [email protected] November

Public Policy Outlook for K-12 Instructional Materials

Jay DiskeyExecutive DirectorAAP School [email protected]

November 2009

Association of American Publishers (AAP)

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2009: The Good, Bad & Ugly

Recession & Recovery? State policy impacts Stimulus Spending Obama Administration


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2010: The Year Ahead

State Policy Outlook National/Federal Outlook Digital transitions


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K-12 by the Numbers

U.S. K-12 school enrollment: 55 million

Adoption states = 20 (5,400 school districts)

Non-adoption states = 30 (10,000 districts)

Total K-12 expenditures = $520 billion annually

K-12 instructional materials market: $7B to $8B

K-12 “Core” IM market = $4 billion


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K-12 Expenditures

Source: Census Bureau, NCES, Stifel Nicolaus

Noninstruction4%

Salaries44%

Support Services36%

Tuition/Other1%

Purchased Svcs2%

Employee Benefits12%

Instructional Materials1%


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K-12 Net Sales Growth 1989-2008

11.2%

2.1%1.4% 2.1%

11.4%

-7.0%

14.4%

6.2%

14.8%

10.3%

3.3%

13.3%

7.8%

-5.0%

2.5%

0.1%

10.5%

-5.8%

2.7%

-4.4%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%


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2009 K-12 Net Sales YTD (thru August)

Basal Adoption Net Sales: -35.2% Basal Non-Adoption Net Sales: -15.6% Total Basal:-26.1%

Total Supplemental Net Sales: 2.2%

Total Basal & Supplemental Net Sales: -21.4% YTD


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2009 K-12 IM Market in Review

The worst U.S. economy in 70 years led to: Postponement of California’s K-8 reading

adoption & second-year purchase of math. Also, disruption of the state’s adoption process.

Incomplete implementation of Florida’s language arts/literature adoption.

Adoption postponements in Kentucky, Oregon, North Carolina, New Mexico.

Significant funding cut in Illinois. Consideration of “open source” (OER) initiatives

in several key states.


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California Meltdown

Reading adoption not fully implemented. Two-year purchase requirement eliminated. IM funding is “flexible” as long as Williams

sufficiency requirements are met. IM adoption schedule is frozen through 2013-14

year. Curriculum Commission unfunded. Governor new “digital initiative” (i.e. OER)

further clouds the outlook on California.

California is, in effect, an “open territory” with limited funding.


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A Look at 2010

2010 adoption calendar looks better. Large adoptions in Texas and Florida are

on track. Uncertainty over state revenue. Challenges at the Federal/National levels.


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State Adoptions 2010 (scheduled purchases)

STATE SUBJECTS

Alabama: K-12 Math, Health, PE, Technology, Career/Technical

Arkansas: K-12 Fine Arts, Special Education, Agriculture, Family and Consumer Education 9-12 Career and Technology Education

California: Williams Settlement – Materials adopted before July 1, 2008

Florida: K-12 Math

Georgia: K-12 Foreign Language, ESOL, 9-12 English Language Arts

Idaho: Humanities: Interdisciplinary, World Languages, Dance, Music, Drama/Theater, Art, PE, Health, Drivers Education, Computer Applications, Limited English Proficiency

Indiana: 1-12 Math

Kentucky: P-12 Math

Louisiana: Agriscience, Business Education, Marketing, Family & Consumer Science, Health Occupations, Technology Education, Trade & Industrial

Mississippi: High School Redesign Courses

Nevada: K-12 Math, Secondary Language Arts, Secondary Health

New Mexico: K-8 Language Arts/Reading, CORE Reading Intervention, Modern, Classical and Native Languages


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STATE SUBJECT

North Carolina: 6-8 Math, Foreign Languages, Sign Language, Spanish for Native Speakers, Agriculture Education, Exploring Biotechnology, K-8 ESL

Oklahoma: K-12 + AP Math

Oregon: 9-12 Science, Math

South Carolina: K-5 Language Arts, 9-12 Math, Science, Social Studies,PE, Graphic Communication, Information Technology, Marketing Management, Business Management and Administration, AP Computer Science

Tennessee: English Language Arts, ESL, Communication, Foreign Languages

Texas: K-1 ELA/SLA and Reading, 2-5 Reading, 6-8 Reading (elective), 6-12 Literature, 6 Span.Literature, ESOL I and II, 9-12 English Language Proficiency Standards, Teachers Editions AP English Language, English Literature, IB Language Studies, Standard and Higher Level

Utah: K-6 Language Arts, Math plus Agriculture and C&T in the Spring

Virginia: History and Social Sciences

West Virginia: K-12 Math, Vocational Agriculture, Family & Consumer Science


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STATE SUBJECTS

Alabama K-12 Social Studies

Arkansas K-12 English Language Arts

California Williams Settlement – Materials adopted before July 1, 2008

Florida K-12 Science

Georgia K-12 Social Studies, Fine Arts, Health & PE

Idaho Social Studies, Economics, Character Education, Psychology, Sociology, Computer Applications, Limited English Proficiency

Indiana 1-12 Science, Health

Kentucky P-12 Practical Living and Vocation Studies

Louisiana K-12 Science, Computer Education, CTE Journey to Careers

Mississippi Literature, Reading

Nevada Elementary Language Arts, Secondary Language Arts and Health

New Mexico Social Studies, Library/Reference, NM and Native American Art and Culture

North Carolina NO ADOPTION/EVALUATION PROCESS


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STATE SUBJECTS

Oklahoma K-12 + AP: Language Arts

Oregon K-12 Second Languages

South Carolina K-5 Health and Safety, 9-12 Math, Social Studies, K-12 Self-Contained Educable Mentally Disabled, Business Management and Administration, Information Technology, Human Services, Health Science, Industrial Systems and Technology

Tennessee Math, Computer Science

Texas PreK Systems, 2-8 ELA, 2-6 SLA, 6-8 Speech, English I-IV, K-8 ESL, 1-2 Spell (consumable), 3-6 Spell (nonconsumable), 1-3 Handwriting, 6-8 Speech

Utah K-6 Language Arts, Math plus Agriculture and C&T in the Spring

Virginia Math

West Virginia K-12 Social Studies


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What’s Ahead for State Budgets?

State tax collections for the 2Q ‘09 showed a record drop of –16.6%. (Source: U.S. Census Bureau)

48 states face budget shortfalls. (Source: Center for Budget & Policy Priorities)

State budget gaps total 24% as a share of total state budgets. (Source: Center for Budget & Policy Priorities)


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Use of Federal Stimulus Fundsin the K-12 Classroom

52% Save teaching positions. 28% Professional development. 23% Classroom technology. 17% Classroom equipment. 12% School repairs. 10% Software/machines. 10% Textbooks.

(Source: AASA)


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Additional Challenges for 2010

New administration in Washington. OER – “open educational resources.” Transition to digital materials. Piracy.


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Federal/National Challenges

Common national standards. No Child Left Behind reauthorization. Race to the Top innovation fund. Obama Administration themes. Influence of national foundations.


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OER Defined

Open educational resources (OER) are instructional materials freely available for use, remixing and distribution.

The term “OER" was first adopted at UNESCO’s 2002 Forum on the Impact of Open Courseware for Higher Education in Developing Countries (funded by the Hewlett Foundation).


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OER Providers & Proponents

www.curriki.org www.ck12.org www.merlot.org www.opened.creativecommons.org www.oercommons.org


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OER Claims & Characteristics Free! Usually digital/electronic. Belief that digital

should be “free.” Open license allows for collaboration and

remixing. Easy to update. Foundation funding and now government

funding. Adoption of OER could save states and districts

money (maybe, but at what cost?).


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OER Drawbacks

Are the OER materials developed by trusted, known, expert sources?

Are the materials accurate? Are the materials aligned with state standards? Are they based on current research? Can OER provide a comprehensive curriculum

with content, scope & sequence? Are the materials really “open” or are the

collaborations a form of collective piracy? Do schools have the technology infrastructure to

go fully digital? What about the MSST?


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Current OER Initiatives

Schwarzenegger's “digital” initiative. Texas (H.B. 2488) “Hochberg Bill.” Virginia “flexbook” initiative. Washington state/Gates Foundation

initiative. Federal student loan bill (Sec. 505).


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OER & Digital Implicationsfor Manufacturers

Further erosion of traditional K-12 print market.

Implications for state funding and adoptions.

MSST issues. But, print-on-demand opportunities will

likely increase.


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Wrap Up


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Contact

Jay DiskeyExecutive DirectorAAP School [email protected]

Documents

Public Policy Outlook for K-12 Instructional Materials Jay Diskey Executive Director AAP School Division [email protected] November