Public Policy Outlook for K-12 Instructional Materials
Jay DiskeyExecutive DirectorAAP School [email protected]
November 2009
Association of American Publishers (AAP)
2
2009: The Good, Bad & Ugly
Recession & Recovery? State policy impacts Stimulus Spending Obama Administration
Association of American Publishers (AAP)
3
2010: The Year Ahead
State Policy Outlook National/Federal Outlook Digital transitions
Association of American Publishers (AAP)
4
K-12 by the Numbers
U.S. K-12 school enrollment: 55 million
Adoption states = 20 (5,400 school districts)
Non-adoption states = 30 (10,000 districts)
Total K-12 expenditures = $520 billion annually
K-12 instructional materials market: $7B to $8B
K-12 “Core” IM market = $4 billion
Association of American Publishers (AAP)
5
K-12 Expenditures
Source: Census Bureau, NCES, Stifel Nicolaus
Noninstruction4%
Salaries44%
Support Services36%
Tuition/Other1%
Purchased Svcs2%
Employee Benefits12%
Instructional Materials1%
Association of American Publishers (AAP)
6
K-12 Net Sales Growth 1989-2008
11.2%
2.1%1.4% 2.1%
11.4%
-7.0%
14.4%
6.2%
14.8%
10.3%
3.3%
13.3%
7.8%
-5.0%
2.5%
0.1%
10.5%
-5.8%
2.7%
-4.4%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Association of American Publishers (AAP)
7
2009 K-12 Net Sales YTD (thru August)
Basal Adoption Net Sales: -35.2% Basal Non-Adoption Net Sales: -15.6% Total Basal:-26.1%
Total Supplemental Net Sales: 2.2%
Total Basal & Supplemental Net Sales: -21.4% YTD
Association of American Publishers (AAP)
8
2009 K-12 IM Market in Review
The worst U.S. economy in 70 years led to: Postponement of California’s K-8 reading
adoption & second-year purchase of math. Also, disruption of the state’s adoption process.
Incomplete implementation of Florida’s language arts/literature adoption.
Adoption postponements in Kentucky, Oregon, North Carolina, New Mexico.
Significant funding cut in Illinois. Consideration of “open source” (OER) initiatives
in several key states.
Association of American Publishers (AAP)
9
California Meltdown
Reading adoption not fully implemented. Two-year purchase requirement eliminated. IM funding is “flexible” as long as Williams
sufficiency requirements are met. IM adoption schedule is frozen through 2013-14
year. Curriculum Commission unfunded. Governor new “digital initiative” (i.e. OER)
further clouds the outlook on California.
California is, in effect, an “open territory” with limited funding.
Association of American Publishers (AAP)
10
A Look at 2010
2010 adoption calendar looks better. Large adoptions in Texas and Florida are
on track. Uncertainty over state revenue. Challenges at the Federal/National levels.
Association of American Publishers (AAP)
11
State Adoptions 2010 (scheduled purchases)
STATE SUBJECTS
Alabama: K-12 Math, Health, PE, Technology, Career/Technical
Arkansas: K-12 Fine Arts, Special Education, Agriculture, Family and Consumer Education 9-12 Career and Technology Education
California: Williams Settlement – Materials adopted before July 1, 2008
Florida: K-12 Math
Georgia: K-12 Foreign Language, ESOL, 9-12 English Language Arts
Idaho: Humanities: Interdisciplinary, World Languages, Dance, Music, Drama/Theater, Art, PE, Health, Drivers Education, Computer Applications, Limited English Proficiency
Indiana: 1-12 Math
Kentucky: P-12 Math
Louisiana: Agriscience, Business Education, Marketing, Family & Consumer Science, Health Occupations, Technology Education, Trade & Industrial
Mississippi: High School Redesign Courses
Nevada: K-12 Math, Secondary Language Arts, Secondary Health
New Mexico: K-8 Language Arts/Reading, CORE Reading Intervention, Modern, Classical and Native Languages
Association of American Publishers (AAP)
12
State Adoptions 2010 (scheduled purchases)
STATE SUBJECT
North Carolina: 6-8 Math, Foreign Languages, Sign Language, Spanish for Native Speakers, Agriculture Education, Exploring Biotechnology, K-8 ESL
Oklahoma: K-12 + AP Math
Oregon: 9-12 Science, Math
South Carolina: K-5 Language Arts, 9-12 Math, Science, Social Studies,PE, Graphic Communication, Information Technology, Marketing Management, Business Management and Administration, AP Computer Science
Tennessee: English Language Arts, ESL, Communication, Foreign Languages
Texas: K-1 ELA/SLA and Reading, 2-5 Reading, 6-8 Reading (elective), 6-12 Literature, 6 Span.Literature, ESOL I and II, 9-12 English Language Proficiency Standards, Teachers Editions AP English Language, English Literature, IB Language Studies, Standard and Higher Level
Utah: K-6 Language Arts, Math plus Agriculture and C&T in the Spring
Virginia: History and Social Sciences
West Virginia: K-12 Math, Vocational Agriculture, Family & Consumer Science
Association of American Publishers (AAP)
13
State Adoptions 2011 (scheduled purchases)
STATE SUBJECTS
Alabama K-12 Social Studies
Arkansas K-12 English Language Arts
California Williams Settlement – Materials adopted before July 1, 2008
Florida K-12 Science
Georgia K-12 Social Studies, Fine Arts, Health & PE
Idaho Social Studies, Economics, Character Education, Psychology, Sociology, Computer Applications, Limited English Proficiency
Indiana 1-12 Science, Health
Kentucky P-12 Practical Living and Vocation Studies
Louisiana K-12 Science, Computer Education, CTE Journey to Careers
Mississippi Literature, Reading
Nevada Elementary Language Arts, Secondary Language Arts and Health
New Mexico Social Studies, Library/Reference, NM and Native American Art and Culture
North Carolina NO ADOPTION/EVALUATION PROCESS
Association of American Publishers (AAP)
14
State Adoptions 2011 (scheduled purchases)
STATE SUBJECTS
Oklahoma K-12 + AP: Language Arts
Oregon K-12 Second Languages
South Carolina K-5 Health and Safety, 9-12 Math, Social Studies, K-12 Self-Contained Educable Mentally Disabled, Business Management and Administration, Information Technology, Human Services, Health Science, Industrial Systems and Technology
Tennessee Math, Computer Science
Texas PreK Systems, 2-8 ELA, 2-6 SLA, 6-8 Speech, English I-IV, K-8 ESL, 1-2 Spell (consumable), 3-6 Spell (nonconsumable), 1-3 Handwriting, 6-8 Speech
Utah K-6 Language Arts, Math plus Agriculture and C&T in the Spring
Virginia Math
West Virginia K-12 Social Studies
Association of American Publishers (AAP)
15
What’s Ahead for State Budgets?
State tax collections for the 2Q ‘09 showed a record drop of –16.6%. (Source: U.S. Census Bureau)
48 states face budget shortfalls. (Source: Center for Budget & Policy Priorities)
State budget gaps total 24% as a share of total state budgets. (Source: Center for Budget & Policy Priorities)
Association of American Publishers (AAP)
16
Association of American Publishers (AAP)
17
Association of American Publishers (AAP)
18
Use of Federal Stimulus Fundsin the K-12 Classroom
52% Save teaching positions. 28% Professional development. 23% Classroom technology. 17% Classroom equipment. 12% School repairs. 10% Software/machines. 10% Textbooks.
(Source: AASA)
Association of American Publishers (AAP)
19
Additional Challenges for 2010
New administration in Washington. OER – “open educational resources.” Transition to digital materials. Piracy.
Association of American Publishers (AAP)
20
Federal/National Challenges
Common national standards. No Child Left Behind reauthorization. Race to the Top innovation fund. Obama Administration themes. Influence of national foundations.
Association of American Publishers (AAP)
21
OER Defined
Open educational resources (OER) are instructional materials freely available for use, remixing and distribution.
The term “OER" was first adopted at UNESCO’s 2002 Forum on the Impact of Open Courseware for Higher Education in Developing Countries (funded by the Hewlett Foundation).
Association of American Publishers (AAP)
22
OER Providers & Proponents
www.curriki.org www.ck12.org www.merlot.org www.opened.creativecommons.org www.oercommons.org
Association of American Publishers (AAP)
23
OER Claims & Characteristics Free! Usually digital/electronic. Belief that digital
should be “free.” Open license allows for collaboration and
remixing. Easy to update. Foundation funding and now government
funding. Adoption of OER could save states and districts
money (maybe, but at what cost?).
Association of American Publishers (AAP)
24
OER Drawbacks
Are the OER materials developed by trusted, known, expert sources?
Are the materials accurate? Are the materials aligned with state standards? Are they based on current research? Can OER provide a comprehensive curriculum
with content, scope & sequence? Are the materials really “open” or are the
collaborations a form of collective piracy? Do schools have the technology infrastructure to
go fully digital? What about the MSST?
Association of American Publishers (AAP)
25
Current OER Initiatives
Schwarzenegger's “digital” initiative. Texas (H.B. 2488) “Hochberg Bill.” Virginia “flexbook” initiative. Washington state/Gates Foundation
initiative. Federal student loan bill (Sec. 505).
Association of American Publishers (AAP)
26
OER & Digital Implicationsfor Manufacturers
Further erosion of traditional K-12 print market.
Implications for state funding and adoptions.
MSST issues. But, print-on-demand opportunities will
likely increase.
Association of American Publishers (AAP)
27
Wrap Up
Association of American Publishers (AAP)
28
Contact
Jay DiskeyExecutive DirectorAAP School [email protected]