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PV Technology Development Revolution by Evolution
Gaëtan Masson Vice-Chairman
JRC Round Table on EU PV Industry
Brussels 27 01 2015
PV Market
100 Bn EUR 40 GW in 2014
(pvmarketalliance.com)
Some numbers
5%
Commercial PV technologies Efficiencies will continue to increase
0
5
10
15
20
2520
00
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Effic
ienc
y (%
)
Year
Wafer silicon - high endmonoWafer silicon -mainstream monoWafer silicon -mainstream multiThin-film CIGS
Thin-film CdTe
Thin-film aSi/µcSi
Thin-film aSi
silicium silicon
thin films
And more to come Wafer/thin-film hybrids, etc.
0
5
10
15
20
2520
00
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Effic
ienc
y (%
)
Year
Wafer silicon - high endmonoWafer silicon -mainstream monoWafer silicon -mainstream multiThin-film CIGS
Thin-film CdTe
Thin-film aSi/µcSi
Thin-film aSi
silicium silicon
thin films
PV technologies Critical success factors (1)
Economies of scale have largely been reached for mature technologies GW-scale factories are a reality already today
Key drivers for further cost reduction are now: increase of efficiency & energy yield (incl. bifaciality) low materials consumption / low-cost materials
PV technologies Critical success factors (2)
Additional drivers / value-adding features: long lifetime / high reliability cost of capital ! overall sustainability optional: added functionality/ special features, e.g.
shade tolerance, partial transparency, aesthetics, flexibility of size/shape, anti-fouling, etc.
Total quality control and labeling (technical quality, environmental quality, CSR, etc.) may gain value in different markets
PV technologies Market differentiation (1)
Trend of increasing module efficiencies will continue for decades to come
Toolbox of science and technology is well filled Europe is very well-positioned in most segments
of research and innovation High module efficiency (at competitive cost)
will be decisive for sustainable success in the main GW-scale markets: it is the levy for cost reduction at system and LCoE levels
PV technologies Market differentiation (2)
Added functionality/ special features will allow the development of new markets (incl. BIPV)
The niches of yesterday may become the GW-scale market segments of tomorrow
The broader picture: € vs ¥
SOPHIA Symposium – 22 01 2015 – Chambéry, FR
Thank you for your attention!