Q4 2008 Employment Outlook Survey Globaldig.abclocal.go.com/wpvi/pdf/news/12092008Global_MEOS_4Q... · 2008. 12. 9. · Q4 2007 to Q4 2008 *EMEA – Europe, Middle East and Africa

ManpowerEmploymentOutlook SurveyGlobal

A Manpower Research Report

Q4

2008

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Global

Contents

Global Employment Outlook 1International Comparisons – Americas

International Comparisons – Asia Pacific

International Comparisons – EMEA

About the Survey 11

About Manpower 12

Q4/

08

1

Global Employment Outlook

Nearly 55,000 employershave been interviewedacross 33 countries andterritories to measureanticipated employmenttrends* between Octoberand December 2008. All participants were asked,“How do you anticipate totalemployment at your locationto change in the three monthsto the end of December2008 as compared to thecurrent quarter?”Employers in 29 countries and territories Manpowersurveyed expect to add to their workforces in Quarter 42008, while three countries report negative hiringexpectations. However, the majority of employers expectto ease the pace of hiring compared to three months ago,with employers in 25 countries and territories reportingweaker outlooks compared to Quarter 3. Five countriesand territories indicate improved hiring plans from threemonths ago. Where year-over-year data is available,Outlooks in 22 countries and territories have declinedcompared to last year at this time.

Quarter 4 employment prospects are strongest in India,Costa Rica, Peru, Singapore, Taiwan, Colombia,Romania, Poland, Argentina, Australia and South Africa.Employer hiring expectations are weakest in Spain,Ireland and Italy, with Spanish employers reporting their least optimistic Outlook since the survey beganthere in 2003.

On a regional basis, employers in the Americas continueto report positive Net Employment Outlooks; however,they are all weaker than those reported 12 months ago.Employers in Peru and Costa Rica are the mostoptimistic about adding employees in the region.Meanwhile, the Outlook in the U.S. is the weakest infive years and hiring expectations in Mexico, whilehealthy, signal the first contraction of strong employerhiring patterns in four years. Across Asia Pacific,employers expect to continue to add to their payrolls;however, all plan a hiring slowdown compared to threemonths ago. Job prospects are strongest in India,Singapore and Taiwan. In the Europe, Middle East &Africa (EMEA) region, Outlooks decline in 12 of 17countries from three months ago with UK employersreporting the gloomiest Outlook in 14 years. Outlooksalso decline in 10 countries when a year-over-yearcomparison is made. On the other hand, Outlooksimprove or remain stable in eight EMEA countriescompared to Quarter 3 – Austria, Belgium and theNetherlands improve and France, Germany, South Africa,Sweden and Switzerland are relatively stable. Notably,employers in the Netherlands are reporting their mostoptimistic Outlook since the survey began there in 2003.

* Comments in this section are based on seasonally adjusted datawhere available.


2

Americas

Asia Pacific

Australia

China

Hong Kong

Japan

India

New Zealand

Singapore

Taiwan

EMEA*

Austria

Belgium

France

Germany

Ireland

Netherlands

Norway

Spain

UK

Italy

Switzerland

Sweden

Net Employment Outlook



Quarter 4 2008

Quarter 4 2008

Quarter 4 2008

Quarter 3 2008

Quarter 3 2008

Quarter 3 2008

12 (15)1

%

7 (6)1

7 (6)1

4 (4)1

11 (9)1

8 (8)1

3 (5)1

%

%

20 (22)1

9 (17)1

12 (15)1

27 (25)1

47 (45)1

37 (37)1

25 (24)1

3 (1)1

16 (13)1

0 (-3)1

13 (11)1

7 (5)1

3 (1)1

11 (12)1

%

9 (9)1

7 (8)1

3 (4)1

8 (8)1

11 (10)1

5 (4)1

%

%

18 (17)1

8 (13)1

9 (10)1

15 (16)1

48 (43)1

16 (25)1

17 (23)1

-7 (-3)1

8 (10)1

-9 (-5)1

9 (10)1

-1 (0)1

-5 (-2)1

21 (13)1

20 (21)1

40

13 (14)1

15 (14)1

29

Qtr on Qtr Change

Q3 2008 to Q4 2008

Qtr on Qtr Change

Q3 2008 to Q4 2008

Qtr on Qtr Change

Q3 2008 to Q4 2008

-1 (-3)1

2 (3)1

0 (2)1

-1 (0)1

-3 (-1)1

3 (2)1

2 (-1)1

-2 (-5)1

-1 (-4)1

-3 (-5)1

-12 (-9)1

1 (-2)1

-21 (-12)1

-8 (-1)1

-10 (-4)1

-8 (-3)1

-9 (-2)1

-4 (-1)1

-8 (-5)1

-8 (-3)1

-1 (-1)1

1 (1)1

2 (2)1

-1 (-1)1

-4 (-4)1

3 (3)1

-8 (-8)1

-11 (-11)1

-14 (-13)1

-17 (-16)1

-9 (-9)1

1 (1)1

-33 (-28)1

6 (7)1

-12 (-11)1

-10 (-12)1

-18 (-18)1

-5 (-5)1

-14 (-14)1

-4 (-4)1

Yr on Yr Change

Q4 2007 to Q4 2008

Yr on Yr Change

Q4 2007 to Q4 2008

Yr on Yr Change

Q4 2007 to Q4 2008

*EMEA – Europe, Middle East and Africa. 1. Number in parentheses is the Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove the impact of seasonal variations in hiring activity. Please note that this data is not available for all countries as a minimum of 13 quarters worth of data is required.

Quarter 4 2007

%

Quarter 4 2007

%

29 (28)1

11 (16)1

13 (12)1

12 (13)1

47 (42)124 (25)1

22 (26)1

26 (26)1

49 (53)1

Quarter 4 2007

%

8 (8)1

5 (6)1

4 (5)1Czech Republic 3 1 -2 ––

12 (12)1

5 (8)1Greece 19 12 -7 ––

8 (7)1

18 (22)1

9 (13)1South Africa 17 17 0 -1027

Poland 29 19 -10 ––

Romania 26 21 -5 ––

14 (15)1

13 (14)1

-1 (2)1

16 (17)1

21 (20)1

Costa Rica 27 29 2 -534

Colombia – 22 – ––

55

United States 16 (12)1 9 (9)1 -7 (-3)1 -9 (-9)118 (18)1

Canada

Mexico

Peru

-8 (1)1

-5 (-7)1

-11

-3 (-3)125 1932Argentina -6 -13

-6 (-6)113 12–Guatemala -1 –

-26

3

Asia Pacific28%

EMEA28%

Americas44%

Survey Respondents by Region

Quarter on Quarter Net Employment OutlookMovement

Year on Year Net Employment OutlookMovement

Research for the Quarter 4 2008 ManpowerEmployment Outlook Survey involved surveying nearly55,000 human resource directors and senior hiringmanagers from public and private organizationsworldwide. 44% of the respondents came from eightcountries in the Americas; 28% from eight countriesand territories across Asia Pacific; and 28% from 17 countries in EMEA.

*Relatively stable describes any Net Employment Outlook variation from -1% to +1%.**Does not include the five countries that joined the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey in Quarter 2 2008.

32 Countries and Territories 27 Countries and Territories**

STRONGER

WEAKER

RELATIVELY STABLE*

RELATIVELY STABLE*

WEAKER

STRONGERAustria Belguim

Costa Rica

Netherlands

Canada France

Germany Guatemala

South Africa Sweden

Switzerland Taiwan

Argentina Australia

China Czech Republic

Greece Hong Kong

India Ireland Italy

Japan Mexico

New Zealand Norway

Peru Poland Romania

Singapore Spain

United Kingdom

United States

Belguim Netherlands

Taiwan

Austria China

France India

Argentina Australia

Canada Costa Rica

Germany Hong Kong

Ireland Italy Japan

Mexico New Zealand

Norway Peru

Singapore South Africa

Spain Sweden Switzerland

United Kingdom

United States


4

Argentina joined the survey in Q1 2007.

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Argentina 50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20Net Employment OutlookNet Employment OutlookSeasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Canada

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Colombia joined the survey in Q4 2008.

Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Colombia50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Costa Rica joined the survey in Q3 2006.


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Costa Rica

Over 24,000 interviews have been conducted acrossArgentina, Canada, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala,Mexico, Peru and the United States to measureemployment prospects for Quarter 4 2008. While positiveNet Employment Outlooks are reported in all countriessurveyed, employers in all countries where year-over-yeardata is available expect to slow the pace of hiring fromQuarter 4 2007, with notable declines seen in Peru and Argentina. Compared to three months ago, onlyCanadian and Costa Rican employers are reportingimproved hiring plans.

Employers in Colombia are surveyed for the first timethis quarter and report one of the most optimistic NetEmployment Outlooks in the region; only employers in Costa Rica and Peru are more optimistic aboutadding employees in the quarter ahead. On the otherhand, employers in Guatemala and the U.S. are theleast optimistic about adding employees. The Outlookfor the U.S. – the least optimistic in five years – isslightly weaker compared to Quarter 3 but considerablyweaker compared to Quarter 4 2007. Employer hiring expectations in Mexico, while still positive, are moderately weaker year-over-year and those in Canada are just slightly less optimistic.

International Comparisons – Americas

5

Peru joined the survey in Q2 2006.

60

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Mexico

Peru

Guatemala joined the survey in Q2 2008.

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Guatemala

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

USA


6

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

China joined the survey in Q2 2005.


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

India joined the survey in Q3 2005.


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008


Australia China

Hong Kong India

Over 15,000 interviews have been conducted acrossthe Asia Pacific region to measure anticipated hiringactivity between October and December 2008.

While hiring prospects remain positive in the Asia Pacificregion, they are weaker compared to three months agoin all eight of the countries and territories surveyed;however, the decline is less pronounced in India andTaiwan. The trend is similar when a year-over-yearcomparison is made – weaker Outlooks across the regionwith only Indian and Taiwanese employers expecting tolift the pace of hiring. The hiring forecast in the Services

sector is notably weaker in the region compared to one year ago and a fall in confidence in this key growthsector has a major impact on these labor markets.

Employers in India, Singapore and Taiwan are anticipatingthe most robust hiring activity in the region for theupcoming quarter, while those in New Zealand, Chinaand Japan report the least optimistic hiring intentions.Notably, New Zealand employers are reporting their mostsubdued hiring plans since the survey was establishedthere in Quarter 2 2004.

International Comparisons – Asia Pacific

7

Japan50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008


50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

New Zealand joined the survey in Q2 2004.


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

New Zealand

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Net Employment OutlookNet Employment OutlookSeasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Taiwan joined the survey in Q2 2005.


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008


Singapore Taiwan


8

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Austria Belgium

France

Over 15,000 interviews have been conducted withemployers across 17 EMEA countries to measureanticipated employment trends for Quarter 4 2008.

Employers in 13 countries are anticipating varyingdegrees of positive hiring activity for the next threemonths; however, hiring expectations are generallyweaker across the region compared to Quarter 3 andthis time last year. In a quarter-over-quarter comparison,forecasts have improved or remain relatively stable ineight countries.

Romanian employers are reporting the strongest hiringexpectations in the EMEA region, while the weakest – andonly negative hiring expectations found in Europe andglobally – are reported by employers in Spain, Irelandand Italy. The forecast from Spanish employers is themost pessimistic since the survey began in Spain in 2003.Hiring is also expected to slow considerably in the UK withemployers reporting their weakest Outlook in 14 years.

Interestingly, hiring sentiments have improved fromthree months ago in the Manufacturing sector inAustria, Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, Swedenand Switzerland, and the sector performance is helpingto bolster the Outlooks for these countries.

Czech Republic joined the survey in Q2 2008.

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Czech Republic

International Comparisons – EMEA

9

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Germany

Greece joined the survey in Q2 2008.

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Greece

Netherlands Norway50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Italy50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Ireland50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Poland joined the survey in Q2 2008.

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Poland

Romania joined the survey in Q2 2008.

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Romania


10

Sweden Switzerland

UK

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Switzerland joined the survey in Q3 2005.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008


50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

South Africa Spain50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

South Africa joined the survey in Q4 2006.


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

11

The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conductedquarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase ordecrease the number of employees in their workforces duringthe next quarter. The survey has been running for morethan 45 years and is one of the most trusted surveys ofemployment activity in the world. Various factors underpinthe success of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey:

Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity andarea of focus.

Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is themost extensive, forward-looking employment survey in theworld, asking employers to forecast employment over thenext quarter. In contrast, other surveys and studies focus onretrospective data to report on what occurred in the past.

Focused: For more than four decades, the survey hasderived all of its information from a single question.

Independent: The survey is conducted with a representativesample of employers from throughout the countries in whichit is conducted. The survey participants are not derivedfrom Manpower’s customer base.

Robust: The survey is based on interviews with nearly 55,000public and private employers across 33 countries and territoriesto measure anticipated employment trends each quarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed across specificsectors and regions to provide more detailed information.

MethodologyThe Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conductedusing a validated methodology, in accordance with the higheststandards in market research. The research team for the 33 countries and territories where the survey is currentlyconducted includes Manpower’s internal research team andInfocorp Ltd. The survey has been structured to berepresentative of each national economy. The margin of error forall national, regional and global data is not greater than +/- 3.9%.

Survey QuestionAll employers participating in the survey worldwide are askedthe same question, “How do you anticipate total employmentat your location to change in the three months to the end ofDecember 2008 as compared to the current quarter?”

Net Employment OutlookThroughout this report, we use the term “Net EmploymentOutlook.” This figure is derived by taking the percentage ofemployers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtractingfrom this the percentage of employers that expect to see adecrease in employment at their location in the next quarter.The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook.

Seasonal AdjustmentSeasonal adjustments have been applied to the data forAustralia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland,Taiwan, United Kingdom and the United States to provideadditional insight into the survey data. These adjustmentsmake it possible to review the data without the employmentfluctuations that normally occur at the same time each year,thus providing a clearer picture of the data over time.Manpower intends to add seasonal adjustments to the datafor other countries in the future, as more historical data iscompiled. Note that in Quarter 2 2008, Manpower adoptedthe TRAMO-SEATS method of seasonal adjustment for data.

About the Survey


12

History of the Survey1962 1st generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook

Survey launched in the United States and Canada.

1966 Manpower’s UK operation launches the equivalent ofthe United States survey, naming the report the QuarterlySurvey of Employment Prospects. The survey adoptsthe same forward-looking research format as the UnitedStates survey and is the first of its kind in Europe.

1976 2nd generation of the Manpower Employment OutlookSurvey launched in the United States and Canada.Research methodology is updated to evolve withadvancements in the field of market research.

2002 Manpower UK’s Quarterly Survey of EmploymentProspects is updated to adopt an enhanced researchmethodology. Manpower’s operations in Mexico andIreland launch the survey in their respective countries.

2003 3rd generation of the Manpower Employment OutlookSurvey is launched, expanding the program to a total18 countries and territories worldwide: Australia,Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, HongKong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands,Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdomand United States.

2004 Manpower operations in New Zealand launch theManpower Employment Outlook Survey.

2005 Manpower operations in China, India, Switzerland andTaiwan launch the Manpower Employment OutlookSurvey.

2006 Manpower operations in Costa Rica, Peru and SouthAfrica join the survey program. Surveys in Australia,Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland,Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore,Spain and Sweden add seasonally adjusted data in thethird quarter.

2007 Manpower operations in Argentina launch the ManpowerEmployment Outlook Survey. The survey in New Zealandadds seasonally adjusted data in the first quarter.

2008 Manpower operations in Colombia, the Czech Republic,Greece, Guatemala, Poland and Romania join thesurvey program. China and Taiwan add seasonallyadjusted data in the second quarter. India andSwitzerland add seasonally adjusted data in the third quarter.

Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) is a world leader in the employmentservices industry; creating and delivering services that enableits clients to win in the changing world of work. Celebrating its60th anniversary in 2008, the $21 billion company offersemployers a range of services for the entire employment andbusiness cycle including permanent, temporary and contractrecruitment; employee assessment and selection; training;outplacement; outsourcing and consulting. Manpower’sworldwide network of 4,500 offices in 80 countries and territoriesenables the company to meet the needs of its 400,000 clientsper year, including small and medium size enterprises in allindustry sectors, as well as the world’s largest multinationalcorporations. The focus of Manpower’s work is on raisingproductivity through improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction across their total workforce, enabling clients toconcentrate on their core business activities. Manpower Inc.operates under five brands: Manpower, Manpower Professional,Elan, Jefferson Wells and Right Management. More informationon Manpower Inc. is available at www.manpower.com.

About Manpower Inc.

Manpower Inc., 100 Manpower Place, Milwaukee, WI 53212, USATel: +1 414 961 1000www.manpower.com

© 2008, Manpower Inc. All rights reserved.

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Q4 2008 Employment Outlook Survey Globaldig.abclocal.go.com/wpvi/pdf/news/12092008Global_MEOS_4Q... · 2008. 12. 9. · Q4 2007 to Q4 2008 *EMEA – Europe, Middle East and Africa