Quantitative Educational Aspirations

Running head: EDUCATIONAL ASPIRATIONS AND OUTCOMES1

Educational Aspirations and outcomes of Students based on the Education Longitudinal Study of

2002

Natalie Ortega & Erin Parra

School of Education

University of Redlands

EDUC 603

July 2015

EDUCATIONAL ASPIRATIONS AND OUTCOMES2

Educational Aspirations and outcomes of Students based on the Education Longitudinal Study of

2002

“A large number of factors including variables and sociological, psychological, cultural

and financial factors affect participation in post-secondary education. (Bell & Anisef, 2005).”

Researchers have measured a combination of different things that affect a student’s pathway to

college. A longitudinal study was conducted to measure the relations of parenting style and its

effect on students and their educational developing aspirations. Results supported that parenting

practices in middle schools have an effect on academic successes in high school and college

enrollment (Hill, N. E., & Wang, M. T., 2015).

Along with these results, another study was conducted measuring the importance of the

effect of cultural factors and career aspirations. Booth, C. S., & Myers, J. E. (2011), compared

career aspirations in African-American women and Caucasian women and to determine if

multiple role plans would predict career aspirations to any extent. These three universities

consisted of a historically African-American university, a predominantly Caucasian university

and public university for undergraduate women. The results supported that career motivation was

related to multiple role planning and career motivation differed based on cultural background.

The most significant finding of this study was African American women had a higher

commitment and were more motivated to advance in career roles, as well as choosing a career

that served others. Also, African American women had higher knowledge and commitment to

multiple role lifestyles. Overall, multiple role planning did not predict career aspiration.

In relation to our study, a study by Signer and Saldana (2001) measured the different

aspects that affect the educational aspirations of students. The research question was to

determine if relationships between high school students’ aspirations and their parents’ education


differed by their mothers’ and fathers’ education. This qualitative study used 100 secondary

students, 50 African-American and 60 Caucasian. They were either low-SES or high-SES and

from urban and suburban communities. Several factors were taken into consideration for this

study, including mathematics achievement levels, ethnicity, gender and socioeconomic status. A

chi-square analysis was performed on the data between the student variables and parents’

education. In this study, Signer and Saldana (2001) found that there was a significant interaction

between mathematics achievement and the student’s ethnicity with educational aspirations. One

criticism of this study was the population sample that was used. It would have been ideal to have

a more diverse sample, rather than only African-Americans and Caucasians. Cultural differences

and parents’ education and occupations seem as though they would be one-sided with Caucasian

families having high-SES and the African-American families having low-SES. This study is

important because it shows that there are student variables that can be accounted for when

measuring students’ educational aspirations. If educational aspirations are being affected by

variables like mathematics level, then we can consider this when comparing other data related to

students’ aspirations.

Qian and Blair (1999) used the second follow up National Education Longitudinal study

(1992) to explore how different factors affect educational aspirations across racial groups. The

analyses were limited to high school seniors. Their research proposal was that several factors

affect high school seniors’ educational aspirations including individual, family, and school

characteristics. A standard T-test was performed on the data and they found that social and

financial capital had different effects across cultures. Asian-Americans were more affected by

human capital and having English as a Native language; whereas, parental involvement had a

stronger impact on minority students such as African-Americans or Hispanics. This study was


relevant because it may be used to identify differences in the students’ educational aspirations

and which factors in their lives played a role. This sample was useful because it contained

relevant data on several races.

A study by Shapka and Domene (2012) focused more on gender differences, whereas the

other studies focused on cultural differences and socioeconomic status. Participants in grades 9-

13 were pulled from an ongoing longitudinal study in Ontario, Canada. The research proposal

was that there would be a difference in students' educational aspirations between genders. This

qualitative study used questionnaires to measure the students' educational aspirations.

Hierarchical linear modeling techniques were used to determine the growth curves of levels of

educational aspiration over time. Shapka and Domene (2012) found significant results for

genders; Boys had lower aspirations in early high school that rapidly accelerated to having

higher aspirations than girls by late high school. Although, post-high school, both genders had

equally dropped off in aspirations to the point of equivalence across genders. Shapka and

Domene (2012) also found that experiencing barriers to attaining education significantly

influenced students’ aspirations. This study shows even more student variables that affect

students' educational aspirations, which should be taken into consideration while analyzing our

data.

The purpose of this experiment was to determine which factors were a good predictor of

degree attainment. It was predicted that students who reported in the educational longitudinal

study of 2002, who planned to go to college, would actually attend a post-secondary institution

and obtains some type of post-secondary educational degree. This means, that our results would

show a significant difference in degree attainment between students who planned to college and

students who did not plan to go to college.


Methods

Participants

NCES collected data from 16,197 participants who participated in the Education

Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS:2002). These participants were10th graders in 2002 and 12th

graders in 2004. Students were followed throughout secondary and postsecondary years. ELS

Data was collected in waves. The base year of collecting data was 2002. The first-follow up year

was in 2004, the second follow up year was in 2006 and the third follow up year was in 2012. In

this research we viewed the first follow up that was given in 2004. The students that participated

in the first follow up were seniors. The third follow up survey (2012) was also used to collect

data.

Procedure

In follow up one of the NCES longitudinal study questions 42, 45 and 47 were

reviewed. Question 42 asked participants, “As things stand now, how far in school do you think

you will get?” The possible answers were; less than high school(1),GED (2), High school

graduation only(3) , attend or complete a 1-or 2- year program in a community college or

vocational school (4), College 4 year incomplete (5) attend college, but not complete a 4- or 5-

year degree(6), graduate from college (4-to-5-year degree) (7), obtain a Ph.D., M.D., or other

advanced degree or equivalent (8), don’t know(9). Question 45 asked participants, “Do you plan

on going to school right after high school?” The possible responses were; Yes (1), No (2), don’t

know (3). Question 47 asked participants, “Do you plan to continue your education at some time

in the future?” There were five possible responses; no(1), yes right after high school(2), yes, after

staying out of school for up to one year (3)yes, after staying out of school for over a year (4),

don’t know(5).


Design

All data was recoded to get rid of missing variables. The new variables were used in a

Chi-square to determine if there was a significant relationship between student’s educational

aspirations and their educational outcome. The independent variable is the student educational

aspirations, specifically how far the student anticipated they would get in their education. There

were nine levels within this variable; less than high school(1),GED (2), High school graduation

only(3) , attend or complete a 1-or 2- year program in a community college or vocational school

(4), College 4 year incomplete (5) attend college, but not complete a 4- or 5-year degree(6),

graduate from college (4-to-5-year degree) (7), obtain a Ph.D., M.D., or other advanced degree

or equivalent (8), don’t know(9).The Dependent variable measured the student educational

outcomes, specifically if a student obtained any type of degree at a post-secondary institution.

The possible outcomes that measure attainment are; yes (1) or no (2).

Results

In the hypothesis, it was expected that there would be a significant difference in the

educational outcome of students who reported in the educational longitudinal study of 2002, who

planned to go to a post-secondary institution were more likely to go to college, than students who

students had no post-secondary plans. There were three combinations of questions from follow-

up one and follow-up three.

The first independent variable analyzed was educational aspirations, with nine levels. The

question stated, “As things stand from now, how far do you think you will get?”. The levels

consisted of responses numbered one through nine. Response one represented the aspiration to

complete less than high school, response two was to complete a G.E.D, response three was to

complete high school only, response four was to complete a two-year degree, response five was


to attend but incomplete a four-year degree, response six was graduate from a four-year

university, response seven was to obtain a Master’s degree, response eight was to obtain a Ph.D.

or M.D., and response nine was, “I don’t know”. The dependent variable was the attainment of a

post-secondary degree, with two levels that were attained from the third follow-up questionnaire

of 2012. The question stated, “Earned a credential from last-attended post-secondary school?”.

Response ‘0’ represented no degree attained, and the response ‘1’ represented that there was a

degree attained. A chi-square test was ran with these variables, which showed P<.001, so we

reject the null hypothesis. There was a strong and significant difference between students who

aspired to graduate from college and those who did not aspire to graduate. The odds ratio was

computed, showing that students who aspired to graduate from college were 2.13 times more

likely to obtain any credential than those who thought they did not know how far they would go

in school or did not aspire to obtain a degree. People who aspire to obtain a degree will most

likely obtain any type of degree more than those who do not know what they aspire to attain or

do not aspire to attain a degree. Having higher educational aspirations were a good predictor of

future degree attainment. Refer to table 1, 2, and 3.

Second, the independent variable of plans on when to attend a post-secondary institution

was analyzed. The question stated, “Do you plan on going to school right after high school?”.

This variable consisted of three levels, response ‘1’ represented yes, response ‘2’ represented no,

and response ‘3’ represented “I don’t know”. The dependent variable of degree attainment

consisted of two levels again, ‘0’ representing no degree attained while ‘1’ represented a degree

was attained. The chi-square analysis showed, P<.001, therefore, the null was rejected. There

was a strong and significant difference between students who planned on going to school right

after high school were the most likely to obtain a post-secondary degree. When the same


questions were compared using odds ratio, results showed, students who planned on attending

school right after high school were more than 3 times likely to obtain a post-secondary degree.

Specifically, when students had plans to attend a post-secondary institution immediately after

school was a good predictor of future degree attainment. Refer to figure 4, 5, and 6.

Finally, the independent variable of when students’ planned to continue post-secondary

education was analyzed. The levels consisted of not continuing after high school, continuing

right after high school, continuing up to one year after high school, and continuing over one year

after high school. The question stated, “Do you plan on continuing your education sometime in

the future?” The dependent variable was again degree attainment, with responses being no

degree attained and a degree attained. The chi-square test showed a significance of P<.001.

Therefore, the null was rejected. This means that there was a strong and significant difference

between students who planned to attend right after school and those who planned to attend at

later dates or not at all. Those who planned to attend right after high school were most likely to

obtain a post-secondary degree. The odds ratio was computed and revealed that students who

planned to attend right after high school were 2.79 times more likely to obtain a degree than

those who planned to wait up to one year after high school to attend. Refer to figure 7, 8 and 9.

Discussion

The purpose of this study was to determine if educational aspirations were good

predictors of higher educational outcomes. A limitation of this experiment was the survey that

was used was limited to only high school seniors of 2002, which may contribute to a cohort

effect. This is only one student population that has been measured. Overall, the results were very

strong and what was expected. Other considerations that resulted from this experiment are to

consider the factors contributing to students not being aware of the urgency to pursue higher


education after high school. With these results, educators can promote awareness to students.

Educational leaders can also promote the immediate enrollment at post-secondary institutions,

after high school.


References

American Psychological Association.(2002). Ethical principles of psychologists and code of

conduct.American Psychologist, 57, 1060-1073.

Bell, Stephen., & Anisef, Paul. (2005). Accessibility and student debt: The shift from public to

private support in Canada. Preparing for post-secondary education: New roles for

governments and families, 55-86.

Booth, C. S., & Myers, J. E. (2011). Differences in career and life planning between African

American and Caucasian undergraduate women. Journal Of Multicultural Counseling

And Development, 39(1), 14-23.

Blackhurst, A., & Auger, R. (2008). Precursors to the gender gap in college enrollment:

Children's aspirations and expectations for their futures.Professional School Counseling,

11(3), 149-158.

Hill, N. E., & Wang, M. T. (2015). From middle school to college: Developing aspirations,

promoting engagement, and indirect pathways from parenting to post high school

enrollment. Developmental psychology, 51(2), 224.

Loera, G., Nakamoto, J., Oh, Y. J., &Rueda, R. (2013). Factors that promote motivation and

academic engagement in a career technical education context. Career and Technical

Education Research, 38(3), 173-190.

Martin, A. J. (2010). Should students have a gap year? Motivation and performance factors

relevant to timeout after completing school. Journal of Educational Psychology, 102(3),

561.


Stringer, K., Kerpelman, J., &Skorikov, V. (2012). A longitudinal examination of career

preparation and adjustment during the transition from high school.Developmental

psychology, 48(5), 1343.


Tables

Table 1

“How far do you think you will get?” Vs. earned credential frequency

F3A13ANEW

Total.00 1.00

F1S42NEW 1.00 8 2 10

2.00 17 11 28

3.00 84 63 147

4.00 456 432 888

5.00 129 104 233

6.00 908 1872 2780

7.00 444 1601 2045

8.00 287 847 1134

9.00 247 239 486

Total 2580 5171 7751


Table 2

“How far do you think you will get?” vs. earned credential Chi-square analysis

Chi-Square Tests

Value df

Asymp. Sig. (2-

sided)

Pearson Chi-Square 462.308a 8 .000

Likelihood Ratio 453.938 8 .000

Linear-by-Linear Association 139.951 1 .000

N of Valid Cases 7751

a. 1 cells (5.6%) have expected count less than 5. The minimum expected

count is 3.33.

Table 3

“How far do you think you will get?” vs. earned credential bar graph


Table 4

“Do you plan on going to school right after high school?” vs. earned credential, frequency

F3A13ANEWPAIR

Total.00 1.00

F1S45NEW 1.00 1893 4677 6570

2.00 260 196 456

3.00 178 140 318

Total 2331 5013 7344

Table 5

“Do you plan on going to school right after high school?” vs. earned credential, Chi-square analysis

Value df

Asymp. Sig. (2-

sided)






count is 100.93.


Table 6

“Do you plan on going to school right after high school?” vs. earned credential, bar graph

Table 7

“Do you plan on continuing your education sometime in the future?” vs. earned credential, frequency

F3A13ANEWPAIR

Total.00 1.00

F1S47NEW 1.00 17 15 32

2.00 1893 4677 6570

3.00 243 214 457

4.00 87 52 139

5.00 127 73 200

Total 2367 5031 7398


Table 8

“Do you plan on continuing your education sometime in the future?” vs. earned credential, Chi-square analysis

Value df

Asymp. Sig. (2-

sided)






count is 10.24.

Table 9

“Do you plan on continuing your education sometime in the future?” vs. earned credential, bar graph


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Quantitative Educational Aspirations