R&D Gap and Trend Analysis for utonomous and Connected

S Y N T H E S I S P A R T N E R S , L L C

R&DGapandTrendAnalysisforAutonomousandConnectedVehicles:OnConnectivity,SensorsandSensorSystems

11250RogerBaconDrive,Suite2Reston,VA20190,USA

www.synthesispartners.com

SynthesisPartners,LLC©

R&D Gap and Trend Analysis for Autonomous and Connected Vehicles:

On Connectivity, Sensors and Sensor Systems

Prepared for the US Department of Energy,

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Vehicle Technologies Office.

Publication Date: November 2017

Collection cut-off date: August 8, 2017

Contract No. DE-DT0006388

Copyright © 2017 by Synthesis Partners, LLC

ApprovedforPublicRelease

PleasecontactMr.StevenBoyd,VehicleTechnologiesOffice,USDepartmentofEnergyat([email protected]),orMr.ChrisWhaling,SynthesisPartners,LLCat

([email protected]),withquestionsorcomments.

IntendedforPublicRelease

November2017 SynthesisPartners,LLC© 1

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Acknowledgements

TheDepartmentofEnergy,OfficeofEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergy,VehicleTechnologiesOfficeprovidedfundingforthisworkundercontractnumberDE-DT0006388.SpecialthankstoMr.StevenBoyd,TechnologyDevelopmentManager,forhistechnicalguidanceandmanagementofthiseffort,andtotheVehicleTechnologiesOfficeandtheNationalEnergyTechnologyLaboratory(NETL)fortheirongoingoversightandsupportofthiseffort.SynthesisPartnersAuthors:

• ChristopherWhaling,P.I.• RichardHolcomb,Manager• SteveJohnson,SeniorResearcher• FriedaHanratty,Ph.D.,SeniorAnalystandLinguist

Review:TheinformationinthisreporthasbeendevelopedbasedonanongoingreviewbySynthesisPartnersofdatafromhundredsofanonymized,primaryindustrysourcesoveranumberofyears,alongsidethousandsofsecondarysourcesin2017alone.Eachprimarysourceinparticularisherebyacknowledgedandthankedfortheirtimeandcontributionstothiseffort.AllerrorsandomissionsofcourseremainthesoleresponsibilityofSynthesisPartners.TolearnmoreaboutpublicinformationthatisavailableaboutthesourcesandmethodsemployedbySynthesisPartnersinperformingthisandrelatedresearchfortheUSDepartmentofEnergy,OfficeofEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergy,VehicleTechnologiesOffice(VTO),pleasecontactMr.ChrisWhaling,[email protected].



LegalDisclaimer

ThisreportisbasedonworksponsoredbytheUSDepartmentofEnergy.NeithertheUnitedStatesGovernmentnoranyagencythereof,noranyoftheiremployees,makesanywarranty,expressorimplied,orassumesanylegalliabilityorresponsibilityfortheaccuracy,completeness,orusefulnessofanyinformation,apparatus,product,orprocessdisclosed,orrepresentsthatitsusewouldnotinfringeprivatelyownedrights.Referencehereintoanyspecificcommercialproduct,process,orservicebytradename,trademark,manufacturer,orotherwise,doesnotnecessarilyconstituteorimplyitsendorsement,recommendation,orfavoringbytheUnitedStatesGovernmentoranyagencythereof.TheviewsandopinionsofauthorsexpressedhereindonotnecessarilystateorreflectthoseoftheUnitedStatesGovernmentoranyagencythereof.



TableofContents

PageNo.1.0Introduction ……………………………….…………..………………………………………………62.0OverviewofFY16andFY17Tasking ……...……………………………………………………63.0KeyFindingsandRecommendations ………………...…………………………………………8

• ResultsfromFY16Work ..................................................................................................8

• ResultsfromFY17Work …………………………………………………………………….12

• Drill-Downon37R&DGapsIdentifiedinFY17 .....................................................13

• GapScoringMethodology …………………………………………………………………….14

• DistributionofGapsIdentifiedinFY17,byCategory……………………..………..15

• RankingofGapsIdentifiedinFY17,byCategory………………..…..………..….…..16

• SummaryDiscussionandAnalysis ……...………………..………………………..………..174.0Recommendations …………………………………………………………..……………..…....215.0Conclusion ……………………………………………………………………..……………..…....246.0SelectedBibliography ……………………………………………………………………………….257.0Appendix:ListofR&DGapsIdentifiedinFY17,inAlphabeticalOrder………….43



ListofFigures,Tables,ChartsandDiagrams

PageNo.Figure1:StatisticsonSourcesAccessedinFY17 ……………………………………...7Table1:Top10WorldwideSemiconductorManufacturingEquipmentVendors,ByRevenue($Billions) ……………………………………………………………………10Figure2:LevelsofHardwareorSoftware,andInterdisciplinaryRDT&E(Research,Development,TestingandEngineering)Work,byCategory ………………................14Figure3:DistributionofGapsIdentifiedinFY17,byCategory ………………………….15Chart1:VehicleSensorsandIntelligenceMaterialsGaps ......................................16Chart2:V2XCommunicationsandIntelligenceNetworkingGaps .......................18Chart3:OtherR&DCollaborationGaps ..................................................................................20



IntroductionThisreportprovidesanupdateonworkcompletedbySynthesisPartners,LLC(“Synthesis”)fortheDepartmentofEnergy’sVehicleTechnologiesOffice(VTO)undercontractnumberDE-DT0006388,duringfiscalyears(FY)2016and2017.SynthesisperformstargetedresearchtohelpinformVTOresearchanddevelopment(R&D)decision-makingaboutcriticaltechnologybottlenecks,gapsorconstraintsintheUSindustrialbaseandsupplychains.Thisreportisthepublicoutcomeofaglobal,data-drivenapproach–employinghundredsofprimarysourcesandthousandsofsecondarysources–toassessandcharacterizepotentialR&DgaptopicareasthatarerelevanttotheVTO’smissionofenergyaffordability,efficiencyandresiliency,andthatcanprovideapathtowardtransitioningVTOR&DworkintoUS-basedjobs.ThisreviewcoverstargetedresearchonR&Dgapsregardingtechnologiesandcapabilitiesinvehicleelectrictractiondrive,autonomousandconnectedvehiclesystemsandsectors.TwoseparateinquirieswerepursuedinFY16andFY17.ResearchduringFY2016focusedonidentificationandprioritizationofresearchanddevelopment(R&D)fieldsintheautomotivesectorthathaveastrongchancetogrowintheUSAbecauseofuniqueUS-basedcapabilitiesandstrengths.ResearchworkduringFY2017focusedonidentificationandprioritizationofgapsinR&Dthatpointtopromising,hardware-orientedresearchdirectionsinautonomousandconnectedvehiclefields.PrimarysourcesandEnglish-language(andtargetedforeignlanguage)secondarysources,aswellasproprietaryandcommercialdatabases,wereaccessedduringtheperiodofthiswork.AhighpriorityhasbeenplacedonR&Dfieldsthatareamongthehighest-value(basedonshareofUSexportsandrevenuegrowthrates),andthatarerelevantoverfive-plusyearplanninghorizonsforVTOdecision-makersseekingsignificantenergyefficiencyandcoretechnologycostreductions.ThegapintelligenceworkinFY16andFY17isultimatelyintendedtoidentifyhighpotentialtargetsforUSautonomousvehicleR&Ddevelopmentandhigh-valuejobcreation.OverviewofFY16andFY17TaskingDetailsonthetaskinganddeliverablesproducedovertheFY16andFY17periodareavailablefromVTO.Thisreportprovidesasummaryreviewofthepublickeyfindingsandrecommendationsproduced.DuringFY16SynthesisassessedUSexportsectorsrelevanttoelectricalengineeringintheautomotiveindustry,intermsofrelativesize(bysales)andgrowthrates,inordertoidentifyhighstrengthorcompetitiveUSsectors.Thetop-rankedsectorsidentifiedarehometosomeofthemosthighlycompetitiveandinnovativeUS-basedfirms.ThesesectorswerethenreviewedtoidentifyandassesspotentialnewR&Dareas,definedastechnicalareasinwhichtheVTOhasnotpreviouslyengagedand



whereR&Dinvestmentscouldaddressagap.SuchnewR&Dareasrepresentacomplexsetoftechnicalneedsthataregenerallybeyondtheabilityofanyindividualcompanytoaddress,andwhichareincludedunderSynthesis’interpretationoftheVTOmission.DuringFY17,Synthesisidentified,characterizedandprioritizedkeygapsincurrentresearchactivities,inordertohighlightpromisingR&Dpossibilitiesinthefieldsof:

• LightDetectionandRanging(LiDAR);• Sensorsystemdevelopment;and• Vehicle-to-vehicle(V2V)orvehicle-to-anywhereconnectivity(V2X).

PromisingresearchintheFY17workisdefinedasR&Dactivitiespertainingtoagapinautonomousandconnectedvehicletechnologythatisalso:

• Hardware-focused;• US-based,orhasthepotentialtobeUS-based;• Couldreachcommercialvehiclemarketsin5-10years;and• Hasthecapabilitytoreducecosts,ideallybyasignificant(>50%)amount.

Figure1providesasummaryreviewofsourcesaccessedinFY17alone.AsimilarlevelofeffortwasexecutedinFY16.

Figure1:StatisticsonSourcesAccessedinFY17.

Sources Quantities

SourcesChecked(February2017–July2017)Wellover1,000websites,newsarticles,pressreleasesandresearchpaperswereinitiallyreviewedtoidentifythemostappropriateinformationsources.Fromthisinitialsearch,alongwithareviewofSynthesis’internalproprietarydatabaseofnearly1,000primarysources,approximately444highlyrelevantcompanies,associations,laboratoriesorindividualswereidentifiedforcloserexamination.

Thousandsofsourceswerereviewedtoidentify444highlyrelevantcompaniesandindividualsforthistask.



High-RelevanceContactsFromamongthe444high-relevanceorganizationsorindividualsidentified,374contactsweremadeviatelephonecallsandemailstodetermineavailabilityandinterest.

374contactsmadeviatelephoneandemail.Fromthe374contacts,73in-depthinterviewswerecompleted.

DistributionofHigh-RelevanceContacts:

Distributionofhigh-relevancecontacts:

• OEMs=6%• Tier1=25%• Tier2=26%• Tier3=7%• RD&E=7%• Academic=2%• Association=6%• Consultant=4%• Investor=3%• Software=4%• FederalGovernment=5%• StateGovernment=3%• LocalGovernment=2%

Source:SynthesisPartners,LLC(2017).KeyFindingsandRecommendationsThefollowingarepriorityrecommendationsaboutR&DgaptargetsidentifiedduringtheFY16andFY17researchperiod.TheserecommendationsarebasedsolelyonSynthesis’conclusionsanddonotreflecttheviewpointsoftheVTOoranyparticularsource.AnonymityofprimarysourcesismaintainedunlessSynthesisreceivesspecificapprovaltosharethisinformationbyindividualsources.ResultsfromFY16WorkSynthesisrankedtentop-levelR&Dtopicsraisedbyprimarysources(basedonopen-ended,in-depthinterviews),intendedtorepresentabroadrangeofinterestsandtechnicalfields,basedonfourvariablesusingabasicscoringsystem.Thefourvariablesusedforrankingarea)expectedenergyefficiencyimprovement;b)amountofscientificevidenceprovidedbysources;c)relevancetofast-growingUSindustrysectors;andd)aGoogleScholaractivityindex.

OEMs6%

Tier125%

Tier226%Tier3

7%

Academic2%

Associa7on6%

Consultant4%

Investor3%

SoAware4%

FederalGovernment5%

StateGovernment3%

LocalGovernment2%

RD&E7%



Thetop-tenR&DtopicsthatwereidentifiedfromSynthesis’contactwith100sofsourcesare:

1. Embeddedsoftware2. Variablecompressionratio3. Motors4. Powerelectronics5. Carsharing6. Autonomousvehicles7. Vehicleembeddedsoftware8. Solid-statebatteries9. Carbonfiber10. Advancedcylinderdeactivation

Intermsofhighest-priorityrecommendations,SynthesisdrilleddowntoidentifythefollowingthreeareasasbothdirectlyrelevanttofutureautomotivetechnologycapabilitiesandamongexportcategoriesinwhichtheUSshowsunique,industrialstrength:

• #1:Automotivesemiconductormanufacturingandmanufacturingequipment.Thisincludessemiconductorsdesignedfordiscreteandintegratedcircuits(ICs)forpowermanagement,electrictractiondrivepowerelectronics(invertersandconverters),aswellassignalsprocessingforadvanceddriverassistancesystems(ADAS),andinfotainmentsystems.

• #2:Embeddedsoftware.Thiscoverssoftwarewrittentoexecuteaparticularfunctioninaparticularhardwareimplementation,suchasfield-programmablegatearrays(FPGAs),toincludefunctionalcapabilitiesthatareincreasinglyimportantfor“smart”vehiclesandautomotiveelectronics,suchas:

o Machinevision;o Imageanalysis;o Signalsprocessingforself-drivingcars;o Safetymanagement;o Wirelessupdating;o Artificialintelligence;o Automotivecloudengineering;ando Softwaretodriveawiderangeoffield-programmablegatearrays

(FPGAs)thatcanbealteredbasedontheapplication.

• #3:Integrationofpowermanagementandwirelessbasebandinapplicationprocessors.Thiscoverssystem-on-chip(SoC)design,inwhichanICintegratesmultiplecomponentsofacomputerorotherelectronicsystemintoasinglechip.Itmaycontaindigital,analog,mixed-signal,andoftenradio-frequencyfunctions–allonasinglechipsubstrate.SoCsareverycommoninthemobileelectronicsmarketbecauseoftheirlowpowerconsumption.Theyarebecomingthefirstchoiceforfutureembedded



systemdevelopments–whichareofincreasingrelevanceinautomotiveapplications–duetotheincreasingdemandforhigherperformance,reliabilityandpowerdensityinautonomousapplications.

Itisnotablethathybridandelectricvehiclemanufacturingaredrivingvehiclestowardcomputerization.Microcontrollers,sensorsandanalogdeviceshaveledthegrowthofautomotivesemiconductors.McKinseyanalystshavenotedthatthreeareaswilldrivethenextwaveofgrowth:1)furtherelectrificationofdrivetrain;2)‘consumerization’ofautoelectronics,and3)vehicleintelligence(includingactivesafetyinnovationsandconnectivity-enhanceddriving).Theelectrificationofthedrivetrainduetohybridorfullyelectricvehiclesmayleadtothe“largestexpansionoverthenexttenyears,”accordingtotheseanalysts.Thedrivetrainaccountsfor30%ofallsemiconductorcontentinanautomobile,and“developingalessexpensivealternativetoIGBTswouldbeonewaytowinthemarketshareinthisarea.”1Automotivepowermanagementisthethirdlargestmarketforsemiconductors,comprisingabout8%ofthetotalmarketin2015,witha10.8%growthratecomparedto5.5%forthetotalICmarket.In2014,theautomotivemarketforICstotaledabout$21.7billion.Amongstautomotivepowermanagementapplications,demandisstrongestinadvanceddriverassistancesystems(ADAS),whichincludeLaneDepartureWarning(LDW),ForwardCollisionWarning(FCW),AutomotiveEmergencyBraking(AEB);andinfotainmentsystems.Fromamarketperspective,theworldwideautomotivesemiconductorsindustryismorethana$24billionbusinessandhasexperiencedoneofthefastestgrowthratesofanylargesegmentinthe$300billionworldwidechipmarket-averaging8percentannuallybetween2002and2012.Thetop-rankedcompaniesinvolvedinsemiconductorequipmentmanufacturingareprovidedinthetablebelow.USheadquarteredfirmsinthissectoraccountedfor39.5%oftheglobalmarketin2015.ThisdemonstratesanapparentcompetitivestrengthofUSfirms,fromwhichSynthesisisworkingtoidentifynewR&DtopicsrelevanttotheVTOmission,withtransitionopportunities.

Table1:Top10WorldwideSemiconductorManufacturingEquipmentVendors,ByRevenue($Billions)

2015Rank

2014Rank

CompanyName HQLocation

2015Revenue

2015Market

2014Revenue

2014-2015Growth(%)

1“OnSemiconductors,”byHaraldBauer,MarkPatel,NickSanthanam,FlorianWeigandBillWiseman,McKinsey(2013);and“WinningShareinAutomotiveSemiconductors,”byDougParkerandChristopherThomas,McKinsey(2013).



Share(%)

1 1AppliedMaterials

SantaClara,CA,USA

$6.42billion 19.1

$6.34billion 1.3

2 4LamResearch

Fremont,CA,USA

$4.81billion 14.3

$3.86billion 24.7

3 2ASML

Veldhoven,TheNetherlands

$4.73billion 14.1

$5.64billion -16.0

4 3TokyoElectron

Tokyo,Japan $4.33billion 12.9

$4.67billion -7.3

5 5KLA-Tencor

Manassas,VA,USA

$2.04billion 6.1

$2.13billion -4.0

6 6 ScreenSemiconductorSolutions

Kyoto,Japan $0.972billion 2.9

$1.13billion -13.9

7 7 HitachiHigh-Technologies


$0.937billion -15.9

8 8Nikon


$0.818billion -11.5

9 9HitachiKokusai


$0.599billion 5.7

10 10ASMInternational

Almere,TheNetherlands

$0.583billion 1.7

$0.557billion 4.5

Others $7.58

billion 22.5$7.27billion 4.2

TotalMarket**Numbersmaynotadd

tototalsduetorounding.

$33.60billion 100

$33.934billion -1.0

Source:SynthesisPartners,LLC(2016),andGartner,“GartnerSaysWorldwideSemiconductorWafer-LevelManufacturingEquipmentMarketDeclined1Percentin2015”,04-06-16,http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3276017,accessed07-07-16.Intheautomotivesemiconductorsectortherearecertaintechnicalgapsthat–iffilledbyUS-basedengineeringR&Dadvances–presentaconcreteopportunityto



expandUS-basedadvantagesindesignanddevelopmentofcriticalengineeringsystemsandproductsfortheautomotiveindustryandbeyond.US-headquarteredfirmsareamongthetop-rankedcompaniesintheautomotivesemiconductorsectorandaccountedfor39.5%oftheglobalmarketin2015.Forthisreason,researchworkincoreR&Dinthissector,includingresearchonnext-generationenergyefficiencytargetsforautomotiveapplications,hasinherentlystrongtransitionopportunities.Withinthesemiconductorspace,SynthesisassessedinFY16thatthefollowingtechnicalandengineeringfieldsarenotableforfurtherdiscussionregardingR&Dgaps.

• Functionalchip-designsforautomotivemanufacturability.Forexample,Jen-HsunHuang,[then]chiefexecutiveofgraphicalchipmakerNvidiaCorp.,said[in2016]thatsomeofits’processorswerebeingstrainedasTeslahasincreaseditscars’capabilities.

• Instruments,methodsanddesignsthatensurechip-designcomplexitykeeps

pacewith,ratherthanoutpaces,manufacturingproductivity.Putanotherway,thepresentchallengeisthatchip-designadvancesareoutpacingmanufacturabilityadvances,andthus,forexample,lithographypresentlyappearstolagthegrowingneedforcomplexdesignsexecutedonsmallersurfaceareasatlowercosts(seeSynthesis’FY16extremeultraviolet(EUV)casestudy).Oneincreasinglycandesignchipsthatareneeded,butcannotbeproducedatacompetitivecost–andthispresentskeyresearch,development,engineeringandtestinggaps.

• Thereisacontinuousneedfordevelopmentalworkinmulticoresystem-on-

a-chip(SOC)architectures,toenablefasterand“smarter,”increasinglyfunctional,smaller,morepowerdenseelectronics.

ResultsfromFY17WorkAtthebeginningofFY17,VTOtaskedSynthesistofurtherframetheopportunityforfutureR&DtargetsbasedonfindingsfromFY16,andtofocusinparticularontheareasofautonomousdrive,LiDAR(lightdetectionandranging)sensorsandconnectedvehicles.Synthesisidentified37R&DgapsinFY17,fromtheintegratedprimaryandsecondarysourceanalysis,fromFebruarythroughAugust2017.Synthesisassessednumeroustrendsandtechnologiesrelatedtoautonomousdrive,sensorsandconnectedvehicles.Findingsarederivedfromastructured,data-drivenprocessintendedtoproducefindingsonplausible,high-valueR&Dtargetsforsustainable,US-basedjobs.EachR&Dgapcanbetracedbacktoprimarysourceinterviewsorsecondarysourcedocuments.Agapisbasedonspecificneedsstatedbykeysources,“inongoing



commercialR&Dandproductdevelopmentactivities,”whichpertaintoautonomousandconnectedvehiclesthatis:

• Hardware-focused;• US-based,orhavethepotentialtobeUS-based;• Couldreachcommercialvehiclemarketsin5-10years;and• Hasthecapabilitytoreducecosts,ideallybyasignificant(>50%)amount.

The37R&Dgapsarecategorizedandscored,withtrace-backcapabilityforeachgapandscoretoSynthesis’internaldatasets.Thequantitativeanalysisofthegaptopicsisofferedasaninitialviewpoint.Synthesiswelcomesdiscussiononadditionalperspectivestoassessthenatureofthegapintelligenceobtained.Thefollowingsummarizesthefindings,assessesthedistributionofgapsacrosscategories,andprovidesananalysisofthegapsbasedonquantitativescores.Drill-Downon37R&DGapsIdentifiedinFY17The37R&DgapsidentifiedinFY17aregroupedintothreecategoriesdevelopedbySynthesistoprovideguidanceontrendsinfindings,asfollows:

• VehicleSensorsandIntelligenceMaterials:Hardwareforlow-cost,high-performance,energydenseon-vehicledatastorage,processingandcommunicationonthevehicle;includesLiDAR.

• Vehicle-to-Vehicle(V2X)CommunicationsandIntelligenceNetworking:Hardwareforlow-cost,high-performance,energydense,secureandreliablecommunicationsV2X,includingsensorsandsensorfusion.

• OtherR&DCollaborationOpportunities:OtheropportunitiestoaddressR&DgapsintheautonomousvehicleandV2X

ThethreebinsillustratetherangeofR&DtopicsthatSynthesisidentifiedasgapsduringthisresearch.Thesecategoriesarenotmutuallyexclusiveandarecertainlynottheonlycategoriesthatcouldbedevelopedfromthegaps.Follow-onanalysesthatassesstherelationshipswithinandbetweensmallergroupsofgapsforthepurposeofidentifying(moreefficient,multi-impactR&Dtopicsinmoredetailcanbedone.Asjustoneexampleofsuchadrill-downongapcategories,andfocusingonlyatahighlevelbasedonnumerousconversationswithsources,thereisanapparentrelationshipbetweentheindividualgapcategoriesusedinthisreportandthelevelofinterdisciplinaryRDT&E(research,development,testingandevaluation)workthatisneededtorespondtoeachgap.ThisviewisreflectedintheFigure2below.Asresearchmovesawayfromaddressinggapsin(e.g.)individualsensorsorsensormaterials,andtoward(e.g.)V2Xcommunicationssystemsandcomplexsystems,theworkrequired–speakingingeneral,atahigh-level–isincreasinglyofamulti-disciplinarynature,movingbeyondhardwarealone.Moreresearchonthevalidityandimplicationsofthisfindingisrecommended.





Figure2:LevelsofHardwareorSoftware,andInterdisciplinaryRDT&E(Research,Development,TestingandEvaluation)Work,byCategory

GapCategoryHardwarevs.SoftwareWork

IndicatedbySources

LevelofInterdisciplinaryRDT&EWorkIndicatedby

Sources

VehicleSensorsandIntelligenceMaterials

MostlyHardware LOW

V2XCommunicationsandIntelligenceSystems

IntegratedHardwareandSoftware

MEDIUM

OtherR&DCollaborationTopics

Systems-BasedSoftware-DrivenWork,AppliedtoComplexNeeds

HIGH

Source:SynthesisPartners,LLC(2017)GapScoringMethodologyAscoringsystemwasdevelopedtoanalyzetherelevanceofthe37gapsidentifiedinFY17andtointroduceinitialrankingstoaddressthework-planobjectives.Additionalscoringtechniquesarefeasibleandavailablefordiscussion(e.g.,scoresthatapplytoclustersofgapsorspecifictechnologyattributesofgaps).Tostartthediscussion,thefollowingthreescoresareemployed:

• Score#1:Work-planrelevanceForeachattribute,whichincluded(1)hardware-focus,(2)morethanfive-yearrelevance,and(3)privatesectorR&Dinvestmentgaps,thefollowingscoreswereapplied:

o 0pointsassessediftheattributedoesnotapply;o 5pointsassessediftheattributepartiallyapplies;ando 10pointsassessediftheattributefullyapplies.

Themaximumscoreonwork-planrelevanceis30points.

• Score#2:Numberofsourcesinagreement

o 1pointforeachcompanyorindividualexpertsourceinagreement;o 25pointsifthegapisdevelopedfromanAVS2017consensusfinding,

(approximatesthe25experts,conservativelyspeaking,holdingtheconsensusview).

Theminimumscoreisoneandthemaximumisinincrementsabove25.



• Score#3:SumtotalSummationofScores#1and#2aboveisusedastheintegratedSynthesisfinalscoreforfinalrankings.(Again,thisisjustonewayofrankingthegapsandadditionalscoringapproachesareavailablefordiscussion.)

DistributionofGapsIdentifiedinFY17,byCategoryThe37gapswereanalyzedandplacedinoneofthreecategories,asdepictedinFigure3.Ofcourse,differentcategoriescouldbedevelopeddependingonhowdetailedoneisinassessingeachgap,orgroupofgaps.Figure3:DistributionofGapsIdentifiedinFY17,byCategory

GapCategory

ProportionofallGaps

VehicleSensorsand

IntelligenceMaterials

30%

V2X

CommunicationsandIntelligenceNetworking

30%

OtherR&DCollaborationOpportunities

40%

Source:SynthesisPartners,LLC(2017).

IntegratingthefindingsfromFigures2and3above,weseethatapproximately70%ofthegapsdonotinvolveahardware-drivenapproach.Thisisnottosuggestthat70%ofgapshavenohardwarecomponent,ratherthatthereisarelativelylowerlevelofhardwarefocusinferredinaverylargepercentageofgaps.Further,thisfinding–andtheunderlyingdatawhichSynthesisassesseswillcontinuetoreflectarelativelysignificantincreaseinmulti-disciplinaryR&Dneeds–suggestsatrendawayfromhardwareonlytopicsandthegrowingsignificanceofR&Dprojectsthataddressthecost,quality,efficiencyandeffectivenessofinterdisciplinary,software-enabledmobilitysystems.



RankingofGapsIdentifiedinFY17,ByCategorySynthesisanalystsassignedscorestoeachgapbasedusingthemethodologydiscussedaboveusingthedatadevelopedduringthecourseofFY17.The37gapsareshownwithrankedscoresinCharts1through3below,followedbyasummarydiscussionandanalysis.AdditionalinformationontheoriginandnatureofthedataregardingeachofthegapsisavailablefordiscussionwithVTO.Chart1:VehicleSensorsandIntelligenceMaterialsGaps

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

MemorySupplyChainBottleneck

Memory-ComputeTechnology

PhotonicsforMemory,ComputeandDataTransfer

OpticalMaterialsDevelopment(incl.accesstoREs)

IndiumPhosphide6"SubstrateDevelopment

MiniaturizedProcessors

SensorFusion

OnboardScalableLow-CostPowerandProcessing(toEnableMachine

LearningOn-Vehicle)

SensorsforComplexDrivingEnvironments

Scalable,Low-CostAVBlackBoxes

SensorCostReduction

SumTotalScore

Work-PlanRelevanceScore

NumberofSources



Source:SynthesisPartners,LLC(2017).SummaryDiscussionandAnalysisFindingsfromtheVehicleSensorsandIntelligenceMaterialscategory:

• Allgapsinthiscategoryhavehighwork-planrelevancescores;whichistosayatleast20outofamaximum30.Thisreflectstherelativesignificanceoftwoormoreoftheattributesofprivate-sectorinvestmentgap,5-yeartimehorizonsandhardwareR&Damongtopicsinthisgapcategory.

• Thesegapsindicateinparticularnumerouspathwaystohardware-focused

R&Dacrossthefullspectrumofthesensorandsensorapplication-engineeringdevelopmentchain.

• 30%ofthetotalgapsdiscovered(11of37)relatetovehiclesensorsandintelligencematerials.

• 46%(5ofthe11gaps)ofgapsinthiscategoryareassessedbySynthesisasconsensusgaps,indicatingthatspeakersattheAVS2017plenarysummarysessionsaddressedthesetopicsasgapsintheirconcludingslidesandaccompanyingdiscussions,perSynthesisanalystattendanceatAVS2017inSanFrancisco.Thesegapsappeartohavethelargestnumberofexpertsinagreement,basedonthenon-statistical,non-survey-based,primarysourceresearchinthisstudy.

• Thefollowingconsensusgapsthatwouldbenefitfromimmediateattention:o SensorCostReduction;o ScalableLow-CostAutonomousVehicle(AV)BlackBoxes;o SensorsforComplexDrivingEnvironments(e.g.,snow,fog,rain,sleet,

etc.);o OnboardScalableLow-CostPowerandProcessing(toenablesensor

operations);ando SensorFusion.

• Thesixremaininggapsinthiscategory–fromminiaturizedprocessorsto

memorysupplychainbottleneck–arenotconsideredconsensusgapsatthistime.Nonetheless,theydeservecarefulconsiderationbecause,fromamonghundredsofsourcescontacted,primarysourcestooktimetorecommendthegaptoSynthesisinanin-depthinterview.



Chart2:V2XCommunicationsandIntelligenceNetworkingGaps


0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

CatalyzeOEMtoBeSpectrumProviders

AVMobilityCommandCenters(e.g.,ATCCenters)

Over-the-airAVSoftwareUpgrades:Testing&Validation

HDMaps:Development,ValidationandStandardization

V2XInteroperability&Standards

OpenSourceCodeAVArchitectures

StrategicPlanning:SmartCars,SmartCities,SmartGrid

LowCostV2XConnectivitiy

R&DonLow-CostGeo-LocalizationWith2-3cmAccuracy

CyberSecurity:SecureandReliableV2XConnectivity

V2XSoftware-HardwareIntegration

SumTotalScore


NumberofSources



SummaryDiscussionandAnalysisFindingsfromtheV2XCommunicationsandIntelligenceNetworkingcategory:

• Allbutoneofthegapsinthiscategoryhavehighwork-planrelevancescores,indicatingagainthesignificanceofboth5-yeartimehorizonsand/orhardwareR&Damongtheinterdisciplinarytopicsinthisgapcategory.

• 30%ofthetotalnumberofgapsidentified(11of37gaps)isclassifiedasV2Xcommunicationsandintelligencesystemsgaps.

• 82%(9of11gaps)ofthegapsinthiscategoryareidentifiedbySPasconsensusgaps,demonstratingthestronginterest-levelindicatedinprimarysources(again,non-statistical,non-survey-basedandasnap-shotintime)forthesegaps.

• Thetopfiveconsensusgapsinthiscategoryarehighlightedforrelevancetoourresearchwork-plan:

o V2Xsoftware-hardwareintegration(allaspectsofdesign,test,engineeringandpilotingofsensingandcommunicationprotocols);

o CyberSecurity(coversallaspectsofmakingV2Xcommunicationssecure);

o Low-CostGeo-Localizationat2-3cmaccuracy(requiresmanysensors,infrastructureandsystemstoworkseamlesslytogether);

o LowCostV2XConnectivity(requiresbenchmarkingtruecostsofpilotsystems,andpathstocostreduction);and

o StrategicPlanning(guidanceforfed-state-localgovernmentsandindustryindefiningneedsandopportunitiesforintegratedSmartCity,SmartGridandSmartAVCarapplications).

• Onlytwogapsinthiscategoryarenotconsideredconsensusgapsatthis

time.o AutonomousVehicleMobilityCommandCenters;o OEMsasSpectrumProviders,wheretheprimarysourcesexpresseda

needtoaddressthevolumeofdatathatvehicleswillbeproducingandusinginautonomousvehicleandconnectedvehiclescenarios.

• MostV2XandIntelligenceNetworkinggapshavebothstrongsupportinthe

AVScommunityandrelativelyhighwork-planrelevancescores.Thissuggestsopportunitiestotakeactiononmanygapsinthiscategory.

• SynthesisassessesthatVTOhasopportunitytoexpandengagementintonew

technicalfieldsbecauseallV2XandIntelligenceNetworkinggapsexistattheinterfacebetweensoftwareandhardware.



Chart3:OtherR&DCollaborationGaps


0 20 40 60

BalancingVehicleDesignTimewithSoftwareUpgradeTime-Cycles

TechnologyTutorials(Deepdives,withAVrequirementsdexined)

Accessto/TransparencyofDatafromAVFleetManagers

CollaborativeConnectedVehicleTest-Beds

ProtocolsforModeTransfer(HumantoMachineControl)

3rdPartyDevelopment,TestingandValidationofAVEdgeScenarios

CollaborationonLessonsLearnedfromReal-WorldAVImplementation

ModelingandSimulationofAVCoding/SoftwareArchitectures:Guidelines,TestingandValidation

Dexiningthe"DrivingTask"Model:ForHuman-to-MachineTransfer

R&DonPedestrianAVandVRU,PedestrianInteractions

NeedforOpto-ElectronicEngineers(Incl.forLiDAR,Optics,SensorDev

Engineering)

SystematicAssessmentofAVTechnologyGaps

SituationalAwareness:DataRepositoryonTechUsed/Neededfor

AVs,SmartCity&SmartGrid

ScalabilityofAVEngineering(Hardware,Software,Multi-Context,

GlobalImplementations)

FundamentalCompetitionatCoreTechnologyLevel(e.g.,Robotics,MachineVision,AVSensor

SumTotalScore


NumberofSources



SummaryDiscussionandAnalysisFindingsfromtheOtherR&DCollaborationgapscategory:

• Thetopgapsinthiscategoryhaverelativelyhighwork-planrelevancescores,showingthesignificanceoftwoormoreofprivatesectorinvestmentgaps,5-yeartimehorizonsandpossibilitiesinhardwareR&Damongthehighlyinterdisciplinarytopicsinthisgapcategory.

• 40%ofthetotalnumberofgapsdiscovered(15of37gaps)arebinnedinthis“Other”category–suggestingtheincreasingrelevanceofinterdisciplinaryresearchinautonomousandconnectedvehiclesforfutureR&Dplanning.

• 93%(14of15)ofgapsinthiscategoryareidentifiedbySPasconsensusgaps,demonstratingthestronginterest-levelindicatedinprimarysourcesinthesegaps.

o ItisplausiblethatthiscategorywillincreaseinsizeandsignificanceinthefutureandthereforeVTOhasaclearopportunitytoexploreexpandingitsroleinthetypesoftopicsraisedhere.

• Thetopicsraisedinthiscategoryaremostlymulti-disciplinary,underscoringapotentialroleforVTO.AmoredetailedreviewofthetopfiveconsensusgapsforthiscategoryiscontainedintheRecommendationssection.

• Onlyonegapisnotaconsensusgap–BalancingVehicleDesignTimewithSoftwareUpgradeTime-Cycles–andthereforeisrankedatthebottomofthiscategory.

RecommendationsThefollowingsummarizesrecommendationsfromSynthesis’FY17work.Theserecommendationsfocusonautonomousvehicles,connectedvehicles(vehicle-to-anywhere(V2X)),andLiDARsensors.Theyprovidethe“consensus”viewpoints,basedonSynthesis’rankingofinformationcollectedfrom100sofprimarysourcesand1,000sofsecondarysourcesevaluatedduringFY17.

1. Thereisaclearopportunityandneedtoaddressthechallengeofintegratingsoftwareandhardwareforfuturemobilityapplications,particularlymobilityuse-case-drivenR&Dgapsinsoftware-enabled,V2Xsystemsareexpectedtogrowsignificantly.

2. AtaxonomyorroadmapofR&Dgapsinautonomousandconnectedvehiclesisneededtodepicttheattributesandcategoriesoftechnicalgaps.Inthisregard,thereisanopportunitytoleadR&Ddatacollectorstocollect,categorize,andquantifythepriorityorrelevanceofspecifictypesofR&Dgaps–especiallyinthefast-changingandgrowingLiDAR,sensors,



autonomousandconnectedvehicleresearchspaces.

3. Supportforengagementinhardware-orientedsensorR&D,includingin:a. Substrate-level(e.g.,increasewafersize)R&D;b. Embeddedelectro-opticsdesignandengineering(e.g.,improve

imagingresolution,resilience,accuracy);c. Glassmaterialsdevelopment(e.g.,addressreductionofREs,andadd

improvedopticsandmachiningproperties);andd. Application-specificelectro-opticalengineering(e.g.,learning-by-

doingmanufacturingandelectricalengineeringforhumantransportapplications,intermsofcost,qualityandperformance).

4. TwogapsintheV2XandIntelligenceNetworkingcategoryareconsensus

gapsanddeserveVTO’simmediateattention;a. R&DonLow-CostGeo-Localizationwith2-3cmaccuracy

i. Opportunityfordesignandengineeringoflow-costsensorsandsensorfusionsystemsthatenablerequiredaccuracyforreliableautonomousvehicleapplications.

b. V2XSoftware-HardwareIntegrationi. Opportunityforguidance,independenttest,validationandunderstandingforsoftware-hardwareintegrationforhighlyspecificAVusecases.

5. ThefollowingtopfiveconsensusgapsintheOtherR&DCollaborationgap

categoryarerecommendedforVTO’simmediateattentiona. FundamentalCompetitionatCoreTechnologyLevel(e.g.,Robotics,

MachineVision,AVSensorRequirements)i. Theneedisformoreclarity,commitment,andinvestmentregardingthecorefiguresofmerit,thebaselinecurrentstateandthetargetsforfutureR&D–alltoacceleratepotentialbreakthroughsinthesefields.

b. ScalabilityofAutonomousVehicleEngineering(Hardware,Software,Multi-Context,GlobalImplementations)

i. TheneedistoinvestigateAVengineeringapproachesacrossaspectrumofoperationalcontexts(e.g.,city,urban,people-transport,things-transport,logistics,on-ground,marine,air,etc.)andtoaddresswherescalablesolutionsarebeingexecuted,arefeasible,andtoidentifyandsharebest-practices.

c. SituationalAwareness:DataRepositoryonTechnologyUsed(AVs,SmartCityandSmartGrid)

i. Theneedisforaverifiable,publicallyaccessibledatasourcethatprovidesmultiplestakeholders(e.g.academics,researchers,investors,inventorsandstate-local-federalpartners)clarityaboutwhoisdoingwhatwhere,inordertocatalyzefacts-baseddecision-makinginthisimportantandgrowingfield.



d. SystematicAssessmentofAVTechnologyGapsi. Theneed,asdiscussedabove,isforasystematic,independentlyderivedviewonthetechnologygapsinautonomousandconnectedvehicleapplications.

ii. Atechnologyroadmapisrecommendedbasedonthehigh-scoreforthisgap.

e. NeedforOpto-ElectronicEngineers(includingforLiDAR,Optics,SensorDevelopmentEngineering)

i. TheprobabilitythatAVtechnologies,likeLiDAR,willbeavailableatsignificantlylowercostsforwidespreadapplicationdependssignificantly(indeed,thisisafirstandforemostdriver–basedonnumeroussources)ontheavailabilityofaskilledworkforcetorampupproduction,reducecostsandmaintainqualityofendproducts.

6. TheavailabilityofskilledAV-domainmanufacturingengineersisviewedasa

keyconstrainttogrowthincapacity(esp.ifthegrowthisrapid)ofautonomousvehicletechnologies(includingLiDAR)intheUS.

DisruptiveTechnologyRecommendationsTheextensivedatacollectionandanalysisinFY17suggeststhattherearedisruptivetechnologyR&DopportunitiestoconsiderinthefieldsofLiDAR-relatedsensors,connectedvehicles,andV2X.ThedataalsosuggeststhattheremaybeuniqueopportunitiesforUS-basedjobcreationbyfocusingonsuchleap-aheadinnovations.“Disruptive”isdefinedastechnologieswhichpresentopportunitiestoaddresssignificantcost-orcostandperformancegapclosingneedsbyoneormoreordersofmagnitude,inwhichcurrenttechnologyistoocostlytoscaletoaddresstheradicalperformanceincreasesandcostreductionsthatareneeded.EachofthefollowingrecommendationsregardingdisruptivetechnologyreflectsSynthesis’independentassessmentofbothprimaryandsecondarysourceresearchcompletedunderthiswork-plan.

7. NewI/Ocontrolarchitecturescanaddressmultipleon-vehicleintelligenceprocessingfunctions,athuman-transportquality,infractionoftimeandfractionofcost.Forexample,fusionofalldomaincontrolunits(DCUs)inonecentralizedvehiclecomputerORnewvalidated,testedarchitecturesthatpermits“fullsense-and-compute”attheedges.NewI/Ocontrolarchitectureswouldpresent:

a. Asolutionthatremovestherequirementtosenddataoffofvehicle,includingformaplocation,navigationorprocessing.

b. Asolutionthatislighter,faster,moresecuredatageneration,collection,miningandprocessingonvehicle.



c. Asolutionthatcanscaleintermsofinformationprocessingtomatchthe“everycaramap-makerandeverycaramap-user”paradigm.

8. “PowerbyEthernet:”ThiscoverstheneedtowirelesslychargeAVsinmany

contexts,whilemobileorstationary.Analternativetocostlyproduction,install,maintainandpackageofpowerthrough(heavy)motors,batteriesandwiringharnesses.

9. Acceleratedengineeringof“hardcodedhardwareaccelerators.”Thisincludes–forexample–hardcodeddevicesthatcanenablefleet-wideAVsoftwareupgradesandthatenablesuchsoftwareupgradestobe:

a. Fail-safe;b. Valid;andc. Cybersecure

ConclusionThecombinationofautonomoussystemsandInternetofThings(IoT)demandsnew,in-depthunderstandingoffutureengineeringR&Drequirementsateverylevelofthesystemsengineeringprocess.Informationis(becoming)thenewenergy.NewpartnershipsamongOEMs,Tier1-3s,softwaredevelopers,cyber-securityexperts,researchuniversitiesandfederalR&DlabsareneededtocatalyzeR&Dworkinhardware,softwareandsystems-engineeringfields.Suchnewpartnershipsareneededtoguidethesoftware-basedandinterdisciplinaryworkthatneedstobedonetoadvanceautonomousandconnectedvehicles.Synthesishasexploredtheindustrydatainthisreportonafewtopics,andhasidentifiedseveralfast-growingfieldsthatwillframethenatureofthisnewR&Dreality.Inbrief,futureR&Dwillenablesystemsandcomponentsinvehiclestocommunicateandcomputewithnetworksfromthecomponentupthroughthetransportationgrid,throughtoaglobal-levelgrid.ThisiswhyemergingR&Dgapsarenumerous,andnotonlyhardware-focused.Fromahardwareperspective,autonomousandconnectedvehiclescontinuouslyseeksmaller,morefunctional,morepowerdenseandlowercostdesignsofeverycomponentandsensor.Fromaninformationperspective,rigorousprocessesforcollecting,maintainingandanalyzinginformationaboutthe“informationgains”offutureR&Disneeded.FromaUSjobandmanufacturinggrowthperspective,thisreportfindsthatmoreskillinengineering-to-manufacturingcapabilitiesisneeded.Thissimplymeansmorelearning-by-doing.Thefast-emerging,estimatedmulti-trilliondollarmarketforautonomoussystemsisdirectlyconnectedto(asbothadriverandbeneficiaryof)theInternetofThings.2Semiconductormanufacturersplayakeyroleinthisopportunity.2SeveralgoodsummariesoftheInternetofThings,includingprojections,areavailableat:InternetSociety,at:http://www.internetsociety.org/doc/iot-overview,accessed07-11-2016;CISCO,at:http://www.cisco.com/c/dam/en_us/about/ac79/docs/innov/IoT_IBSG_0411FINAL.pdf,accessed



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Appendix:ListOfR&DGapsIdentifiedInFY17,InAlphabeticalOrder

1. 3rdPartyDevelopment,TestingandValidationofAVEdgeScenarios

2. Accessto/TransparencyofDatafromAVFleetManagers

3. AVMobilityCommandCenters(e.g.,ATCCenters)

4. BalancingVehicleDesignTimewithSoftwareUpgradeTime-Cycles

5. CatalyzeOEMtoBeSpectrumProviders

6. CollaborationonLessonsLearnedfromReal-WorldAVImplementation

7. CollaborativeConnectedVehicleTest-Beds

8. CyberSecurity:SecureandReliableV2XConnectivity

9. DrivingTaskModelDefinition:ForHuman-to-MachineTransfer

10. FundamentalCompetitionatCoreTechnologyLevel(e.g.,Robotics,MachineVision,AVSensorRequirements)

11. HDMaps:Development,ValidationandStandardization

12. IndiumPhosphide6"SubstrateDevelopment

13. LowCostV2XConnectivity

14. MemorySupplyChainBottleneck

15. Memory-ComputeTechnology

16. MiniaturizedProcessors

17. ModeTransfer(HumantoMachineControl)

18. ModelingandSimulationofAVCoding/SoftwareArchitectures:Guidelines,TestingandValidation

19. NeedforOpto-ElectronicEngineers(Incl.forLiDAR,Optics,SensorDevEngineering)

20. OnboardScalableLow-CostPowerandProcessing(toDriveUpdating,MachineLearningOn-Vehicle)



21. OpenSourceCodeAVArchitectures

22. OpticalMaterialsDevelopment(incl.accesstoREs)

23. Over-the-airAVSoftwareUpgrades:Testing&Validation

24. PhotonicsforMemory,ComputeandDataTransfer

25. R&DonLow-CostGeo-LocalizationWith2-3cmAccuracy

26. R&DonPedestrianAVandVRU,PedestrianInteractions

27. ScalabilityofAVEngineering(Hardware,Software,Multi-Context,GlobalImplementations)

28. Scalable,Low-CostAVBlackBoxes

29. SensorCostReduction

30. SensorFusion

31. SensorsforComplexDrivingEnvironments

32. SituationalAwareness:DataRepositoryonTechforAVs,SmartCity,SmartGrid

33. StrategicPlanning:SmartCars,SmartCities,SmartGrid

34. SystematicAssessmentofAVTechnologyGaps

35. TechnologyTutorials(Deepdives,withAVrequirementsdefined)

36. V2XInteroperability&Standards

37. V2XSoftware-HardwareIntegration