Rapid Risk AssessmentRapid Risk AssessmentPreparedness, Response, Recovery, Preparedness, Response, Recovery,

and Mitigationand Mitigation

Rapid Risk AssessmentRapid Risk AssessmentPreparedness, Response, Recovery, Preparedness, Response, Recovery,

and Mitigationand Mitigation

WorkshopU.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission

Rockville, Maryland

Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryNovember 15-17, 2005

2

TeamTeamTeamTeam

Gariann Gelston (HERS), Project ManagerGene Whelan (NR), Technical LeadDave Millard (ISE), EMAdvantage Lead Chitra Sivaraman (ISE) Tim Downing (ISE)

Mitch Pelton (HERS), FRAMES Lead Dennis Strenge (HERS) Bonnie Hoopes (HERS)

Tarang Khangaonkar (MSL), EFDC Lead Zhaoqing Yang (MSL) Cheegwan Lee (MSL) Lon Hachmeister (MSL)

Mary Simpson/Joan Young (HERS), DS Lead

3

““Multi-Thematic” Modeling SupportersMulti-Thematic” Modeling Supporters““Multi-Thematic” Modeling SupportersMulti-Thematic” Modeling Supporters

1. Engineer Research & Development Center, ACOE

2. National Environmental Research Laboratory, ORD, EPA

3. Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, NRC

4. Office of Radiation and Indoor Air, OAR, EPA

5. Office of Environmental Management, DOE

6. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, DOE

7. Multimedia Modeling: $23M ($8M for FRAMES)

8. FEMIS/EMAdvantage: $42M

4

PurposePurposePurposePurpose

Provide an illustrative example that combines a multi-thematic modeling capability with emergency planning & response tools to create an automated system, which provides a real-time linkage between scientific and emergency-response communities.

5

IntroductionIntroductionIntroductionIntroduction

1. Preparedness, Response, Recovery, & Mitigationa. Air is commonb. Now easily link soil, surface water, groundwater,

exposure pathway/routes, decision support, etc.c. Integrated Multi-thematic capability, illustrating water

2. Not Vaporwarea. Simulated Sensor Datab. Pre-run 3-D surface water flow and transportc. Real site with real datad. Demonstration of actual software actually running

6

PropositionPropositionPropositionProposition

1. Release of an unknown contaminant, unknown strength, unknown location to a water body, where a nearby population is potentially exposed

2. Question: What is the potential impact to the surrounding area, and what response plan do you implement, if the contaminant levels are unacceptable?

3. Operate Status Board Command & Control system linked with “Multi-thematic Modeling” running in the background

7

Preparation WorkPreparation WorkPreparation WorkPreparation Work

1. Spatial description of site

2. Sensors

3. Contaminants of Concern (CoC)

4. Exposure scenarios/pathways per zone

5. Fate & Transport Models (Calibrate/Validate)

6. Protective/Response Action Plans

7. Protective Action Thresholds and Recommendations

8

Demonstration StepsDemonstration StepsDemonstration StepsDemonstration Steps

1. Operational System2. Status Board notification through sensors3. Incident Identification 4. Surface Water Back Calculation5. Surface Water Transport Forward Calculation6. Risk Impact Analysis7. Post Protective Action Recommendations

9

Demonstration Steps Demonstration Steps (cont’d)(cont’d)Demonstration Steps Demonstration Steps (cont’d)(cont’d)

7. Choose and Implement best-fit Protective Action Plan

8. Evaluate differences between Protective Action Recommendations and Final Protective Action Decision

9. Re-evaluate in real-time as the assessment requires

10

Relationship Between Incident Characterization and Emergency Response & Recovery

‘STATIC’ GEO-SPATIAL DATA

‘STATIC’ GEO-SPATIAL DATA

SENSOR DATASENSOR DATA

INCIDENTINFORMATION

INCIDENTINFORMATION

WEATHERWEATHER INCIDENTCHARACTERIZATION

HAZARDANALYSIS• Area Affected• Impact Estimates• Times / Durations

CONSEQUENCEASSESSMENT• Population• Critical Infrastructure

INCIDENTCHARACTERIZATION

HAZARDANALYSIS• Area Affected• Impact Estimates• Times / Durations

CONSEQUENCEASSESSMENT• Population• Critical Infrastructure

SITE SPECIFICDATA

SITE SPECIFICDATA

PRODUCTSPRODUCTS

EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS & RESPONSE

• Examine Incident Characterization Information• Autonomously Make Protective Action Decisions• Identify and execute Plans and Annexes• Transition from initial response, to sustained response• Transition from Response to Recovery

EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS & RESPONSE

• Examine Incident Characterization Information• Autonomously Make Protective Action Decisions• Identify and execute Plans and Annexes• Transition from initial response, to sustained response• Transition from Response to Recovery

REPORTSREPORTS

ALERTSALERTS

PRODUCTTRANSFER

SUMMARY

BACK

Spatial Description of SiteSpatial Description of Site(water, shoreline, land zones; facilities)(water, shoreline, land zones; facilities)

Spatial Description of SiteSpatial Description of Site(water, shoreline, land zones; facilities)(water, shoreline, land zones; facilities)

12

S2

S1

S3

S4

S5

S6

S7S8

S9

Sensor Locations

2 km

BACK

SensorsSensorsSensorsSensors

13

Exposure Strontium-90 Water Concentration by Threshold Level mg/L)Scenario Level 1 Level 2 Level 3

Adverse Severe (5 mSv) (50 mSv) (500 mSv)

Boating/swimming in open water5.03E-04 5.03E-03 5.03E-02

Swimming/shoreline activity on beach5.00E-04 5.00E-03 5.00E-02

Drinking water ingestion1.26E-05 1.26E-04 1.26E-03

Fish Consumption2.52E-03 2.52E-02 2.52E-01

Food Consumption 2.96E-04 2.96E-03 2.96E-02

BACK

Exposure Scenarios/Pathways per ZoneExposure Scenarios/Pathways per ZoneExposure Scenarios/Pathways per ZoneExposure Scenarios/Pathways per Zone

14

Protective Action ThresholdsProtective Action Thresholdsand Recommendationsand Recommendations

(Water, Shoreline, Land)(Water, Shoreline, Land)

Protective Action ThresholdsProtective Action Thresholdsand Recommendationsand Recommendations

(Water, Shoreline, Land)(Water, Shoreline, Land)

 Sensor DataHuman Health

Model Protective Action

Zone Type Time to Zonal ImpactDuration of Zonal

ImpactSeverity

Applicable Decisions

Severe EvacuateAdverse Restrict AccessSevere EvacuateAdverse Restrict AccessSevere EvacuateAdverse Restrict AccessSevere EvacuateAdverse Restrict AccessSevere EvacuateAdverse Restrict AccessSevere EvacuateAdverse Restrict AccessSevere MitigateAdverse MitigateSevere MitigateAdverse MitigateSevere MitigateAdverse MitigateSevere Evacuate

Short (0 - 2 hours)

Water Model

Short (0 - 2 hours)

Shoreline

Short (0 - 2 hours)

Medium (>2 - 72 hours)

Long (>72 hours)

Short (0 - 2 hours)

Medium (>2 - 72 hours)

Long (>72 hours)

Short (0 - 2 hours)

Medium (>2 - 72 hours)

Long (>72 hours)

Water

Short (0 - 2 hours)

Medium (>2 - 72 hours)

Long (>72 hours)

BACK

S1S2

S3

S4

S5

S6

S7

S8

S9

Sensor Locations

2 km

Status Board Notification through SensorsStatus Board Notification through Sensors

BACK

S1S2

S3

S4S5

S6S7

S8

S9

Sensor Locations

2 km

S3

S7

S2

S6

S1

Detection Threshold

Impacts Threshold

Julian Day

257.0 257.1 257.2 257.3 257.4 257.5 257.6 257.7 257.8 257.9 258.0 258.1 258.2 258.3 258.4

C (

mg/L

)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 S7 S8 S9

Initial Release - 100 mg/L at JD=257.0

S3 S2

S6

S1

Detection Threshold

Impacts Threshold

S3

S7

S2

S6

S1

Detection Threshold

Impacts Threshold

Julian Day

257.0 257.1 257.2 257.3 257.4 257.5 257.6 257.7 257.8 257.9 258.0 258.1 258.2 258.3 258.4

C (

mg/L

)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 S7 S8 S9

Initial Release - 100 mg/L at JD=257.0

S3 S2

S6

S1

Detection Threshold

Impacts Threshold

Incident Identification(sensors exceed threshold)

BACK

S3

S4

S5S8

S9

R1R2

R3 R4R5

R6

Sensor Locations

Initial ReleaseS1S2

S6

S7

2 km

Surface Water Back Calculations

BACK

Estimate Potential Release Points and Source Strengths

Surface WaterSurface WaterTransport Forward Transport Forward

CalculationCalculation

Surface WaterSurface WaterTransport Forward Transport Forward

CalculationCalculation

ForwardBack

Previous Slide

Surface Water TransportSurface Water TransportForward CalculationForward Calculation

Surface Water TransportSurface Water TransportForward CalculationForward Calculation

▼ChosenSource

Back

Risk Impact Analysis

BACK

● Overlay plume, which exceeds a threshold, on to zones

● Identify zones directly impacted by plume

● Identify zones indirectly

impacted

Post Protective Action RecommendationsPost Protective Action Recommendations(Water, Shoreline, Land)(Water, Shoreline, Land)

Post Protective Action RecommendationsPost Protective Action Recommendations(Water, Shoreline, Land)(Water, Shoreline, Land)

 Sensor DataHuman Health

Model Protective Action

Zone Type Time to Zonal ImpactDuration of Zonal

ImpactSeverity

Applicable Decisions

Severe EvacuateAdverse Restrict AccessSevere EvacuateAdverse Restrict AccessSevere EvacuateAdverse Restrict AccessSevere EvacuateAdverse Restrict AccessSevere EvacuateAdverse Restrict AccessSevere EvacuateAdverse Restrict AccessSevere MitigateAdverse MitigateSevere MitigateAdverse MitigateSevere MitigateAdverse MitigateSevere Evacuate

Short (0 - 2 hours)

Water Model

Short (0 - 2 hours)

Shoreline

Short (0 - 2 hours)

Medium (>2 - 72 hours)

Long (>72 hours)

Short (0 - 2 hours)

Medium (>2 - 72 hours)

Long (>72 hours)

Short (0 - 2 hours)

Medium (>2 - 72 hours)

Long (>72 hours)

Water

Short (0 - 2 hours)

Medium (>2 - 72 hours)

Long (>72 hours)

BACK

Rapid Risk AssessmentRapid Risk AssessmentRapid Risk AssessmentRapid Risk Assessment

Contaminant Concentration

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 6 11 16 21 26 31

Time

Co

ncen

trati

on

(u

g/L

)

Detects

1 6 11 16 21 26 31

Time

De

tec

t

Time

TimeScenario Comparison

Ha

zard

In

de

xR

esp

on

seC

ost Shower Garden

Drinking

Chloroform (67663)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.1

Surface Water Concentration (g/ml)

Prob

abilit

y of E

quali

ng or

Exc

eedin

g Co

ncen

tratio

n, ba

sed o

n Dur

ation

(%)

Pro

babi

lity

of E

xcee

denc

e

Concentration

Is this significant?