RCC 3rd Anniversary7 March 2011, Sarajevo

From Lisbon Strategy to Europe 2020:

Relevance for candidates and potential candidates

Dr. Višnja SamardžijaInstitute for International Relations - IMO, Zagreb

The book, and beyond…

“From the Lisbon Strategy to Europe 2020”, published by IMO, Zagreb in 2010

Supported by the Delegation of the EU to the Republic of Croatia

Editors: Višnja Samardžija and Hrvoje Butković Authors: IMO and external experts Content: strategic perspectives, thematic issues,

glossary Available at: http://www.imo.hr/node/1231

Europe 2020:Smart, sustainable, inclusive growth

Exit strategy from economic crisis, EU facing global challenges

Continuity in implementing Lisbon-type strategy reforms

High expectations New dynamism, raising competitiveness on European

level, better coordination with other EU policies, better distribution of labour stronger financial support…

Old and new mechanisms (OMC, IGs), European economic governance

Lisbon Strategy – EU, external competitors and CroatiaPerformance in key areas (WEF, 2010)

Top priorities: Europe 2020 headline targets

Innovation Union Youth on the move Digital Agenda for Europe Resource efficient Europe Industrial policy for the globalization era Agenda for new skills and jobs European platform against poverty

Europe 2020 “flagship initiatives”

Europe 2020 Integrated Guidelines…from 24 to 10

EU 2020 governance Different priorities for structurally different member states - not “one size

fits for all” approach Financing EU2020 - financial perspective, EU funds, national level EU2020 & common policies (reformed cohesion policy, CAP, other) EU2020 & other strategies (Danube strategy) Partnership between EU member states, Commission, Council Governance mechanisms

Open method of coordination (OMC) Soft method Defining goals, guidelines, indicators, evaluation, monitoring Integrated guidelines Exchange of good practice

New economic governance

New European economic governance: EU and beyond…

Fiscal consolidation, structural reforms Strengthening rules of fiscal and budgetary discipline - ex-

ante dimension Stronger monitoring on fiscal policies and coordination of

national economic policies Better coordination with Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) rules

Budget deficit and public debt high above envisaged! “European Semester” Eurozone - European Stabilisation Mechanism, permanent crisis

mechanism, early warning system, readiness for eventual future crisis management

Obligations and responsibilities of EU member states

Stability and Convergence Programme Submission before adoption of national

budgets – debate on public finances and fiscal policy

National Reform Programme Elements for implementation surveillance of

EU2020 – according thematic areas Regional and local level – policy

implementation related to EU2020

Relevance of EU umbrella strategies for candidates / potential candidates?

Lisbon strategy - goals considered as priorities in Accession / European Partnerships

Not additional criteria but relevant in reforms and EU negotiations

LS principles integrated into candidates’ national strategic documents, to be considered in reforms

Participation in OMC - learning dimension Common goals, evaluation, joint review process, coaching, peer

review, benchmarking exercise, indicators Deepening policy dialogue with EU, strengthening institutional

capacities Developing strategic approach to policy development Support from pre-accession funds (IPA; IPA Multi-Beneficiary)

EU2020 & candidates …Europe 2020 strategy is not only relevant

inside the EU, it can also offer considerable potential to candidate countries and our neighbourhood and better help anchor their own reform efforts. Expanding the area where EU rules are applied will create new opportunities for both the EU and its neighbours” (European Commission, 2010)

Transferring Lisbon goals into candidate countries’ reality

Strategic documents - Croatia Strategic Development Framework (2006-13) Strategic Coherence Framework – SCF (2007-13);

National Strategic Reference Framework – NSRF (2012-13)

Pre-accession economic programmes – PEP (Economic and fiscal programmes - EFP)

Joint Inclusion Memorandum (JIM); Joint Assessment of Employment Policy Priorities (JAP)

Croatia: Framework for implementing Pre-accession funds (2007-2013)

3. Implications for Croatia

Croatia: National strategic framework for accession (EU2020)

OMC: Learning platform for SEE participation in EU governance

Regional platforms were established for most important areas of LS /EU2020!

Regional activities Investment compact (Investment Reform Index, SME Policy

Index, working methods) Steering platform on research for WB, Regional Research

Strategy eSEE Initiative (Agenda Plus) Other…

Regional initiatives CEFTA Energy Community Transport Treaty Other…

Why is EU2020 relevant for SEE region?

Strategic thinking Commitment to common goals helps to change national

policies Creation of regional economic governance regime Identifying own priorities and aims in different areas, prioritization Adoption of good practice

OMC - strategic documents, action plans, Improving system of monitoring and collecting

indicators, harmonised with EU structural indicators (EUROSTAT)

Support of European Commission, implementation!

Performance of SEE countries in different areas

Acceding countries development levelGPD per capita at current prices (EUR)

Source:Eurostat, Pocketbook on candidates and potential candidates, 2010

GDP growth rate in candidates/potential candidatesat constant prices (national currency) relative to previous year (%)

1998 2000 2007 2008

EU-27 3.0 3.9 2.9 0.9

Croatia 2.1 3.0 5.5 2.4

The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia 3.4 4.5 5.9 :

Turkey : 6.8 4.7 0.9

Albania 9.0 6.7 6.0 :

Bosnia and Herzegovina : : 6.0 5.4

Montenegro : : 10.7 :

Serbia 0.7 5.3 6.9 :

Kosovo under UNSCR 1244/99 : : : :

Iceland 6.3 4.3 5.6 1.3

Source: Eurostat, Pocketbook on candidates and potential candidates, 2010

Global Competitiveness Ranking (WEF, 2008-2010)

COUNTRY 2010 2008 COUNTRY 2010 2008

EU-15 EU-12Sweden 2 4 Estonia 33 32Germany 5 7 Czech Republic 36 33Finland 7 6Greece 83 67 SEE countries

Montenegro 49 65“BRIC” countries Croatia 77 61China 27 30 Macedonia 79 89India 51 50 Albania 88 108Brazil 58 64 Serbia 96 85

Scores of EU and SEE countries according to selected Lisbon criteria (WEF, 2006 and 2010)

Gross domestic expenditure on R&D relative to GDP, 2007 (%)

(1) Eurostate estimate. (2) 2004 instead of 2007 data.

Source: Eurostat, Pocketbooks, 2010

Gross domestic expenditure on R&D (% GDP)

1.86 1.87 1.88 1.87 1.83 1.84 1.84

1.231.07 1.11 1.11

1.22

1.010.87

00.20.40.60.8

11.21.41.61.8

2

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

EU-27

Croatia

Montenegro

Turkey

Macedonia, FYR

Source: Pocketbook on candidate and potential candidate countries, 2009 edition. EUROSTAT

Lack of comparable data!

Comparative ranking according performance in technological readiness, education and innovation (Global Competitiveness Index, N=133)

56

61

43

72

19

29

32

37

0 50 100 150

Higher educationand training

Innovation

Technologicalreadiness

Overal ranking Slovenia

Montenegro

Romania

Croatia

Bulgaria

Macedonia, FYR

Serbia

Albania

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Source: The Global Competitiveness Report 2009-2010, WEF Note: GCR based on survey and hard data of 133 countries

Proportion of population aged 18-24 having not completed upper secondary education, 2008 (%) (currently not in any education or training)

Note: Data for several countries not available. Source: Eurostat, Pocketbooks, 2010

Reducing early school leavers?

Proportion of population aged 20-24 having completed at least upper secondary education, 2008 (%)

Note: Data for several countries not available. Source: Eurostat, Pocketbooks, 2010

Goal: to increase proportion of young population with upper secondary education

Proportion of persons aged 25-64 participating in education and training, 2000 and 2008 (%)

Note: Data for several countries not available. Results of survey – participation in education and training at any time within a four week period prior to being surveyed.Source: Eurostat, Pocketbooks, 2010

Building knowledge based society: challenge for SEE region

Developing policies based upon new paradigms and new models for growth

Increasing productivity and foster “knowledge based” regional competitiveness; towards more skill-intensive exports

Changing priorities in national / regional agenda Designing integrated policies and strategies for SEE,

from fragmented to integrated approach Strengthening regional cooperation in sectors of

competitive advantage Encouraging transfer of knowledge, strengthening

capacities for EU funded programmes (FP7, CIP…)

Europe 2020SEE / Western Balkans 2020?

EU2020 strategy – strong potential to anchor reforms and facilitate EU accession, meeting challenge of good governance

Strengthening own strategic thinking in regional context Need to develop regional strategy 2020, corresponding

to Europe 2020 Regional guidance in implementing reform + national

targets Key issues – competitiveness, employment, education,

research, innovations Regional initiatives / activities - asset for supporting reforms

Reflect OMC - policy learning, benchmarking, common targets, peer reviews

Croatia as a model for SEE countries RCC - Regional Cooperation Council’s role!

Thank you for your attention!