Real Insight –Q4 FY’19naredco.in/notification/pdfs/Real Insight Q4 FY19.pdf · • Hyderabad continued its price rally whereas prices in NCR and Ahmedabad witnessed correction

Real Insight – Q4 FY’19April 2019

Source: PropTiger DataLabs Mar’19

Executive Summary – Q4 FY’19

• New supply further declined by 32% over last year. In the recent quarter except Chennai, Gurugram and Pune all

other cities witnessed the reduction in new launches

• Total sales of top 9 cities decreased marginally by 5% over last year, impacted by GST transition rules. Hyderabad

realty was an exception to national trend and witnessed significant improvement in sales over last year.

• Unsold inventory of top 9 cities further reduced 10% year on year and overall inventory overhang reduced

marginally to 30 months. Hyderabad has the lowest inventory overhang of 17 months whereas Ahmedabad has

the highest of 40 months

• Hyderabad continued its price rally whereas prices in NCR and Ahmedabad witnessed correction

• Affordable housing continued to dominate the supply and launches across cities. Ahmedabad & Kolkata having

maximum unsold inventory in less than Rs. 25 Lakhs segment


Residential Landscape: Top-9 cities as of Q4 FY’19 over last year

Notes: 1. Y-o-Y is comparison between the corresponding quarter of the previous year and the current quarter 2. BSP is represented in Rs./sq.ft. over super area 3. Inventory overhang is represented in months. 4. MMR is Mumbai Metropolitan Region which includes Navi Mumbai and Thane

Y-o-Y (%)

Launches -97%

Sales -10%

BSP-1%

(2,825)

Inventory Overhang

70%(40)

AHMEDABAD BENGALURU Y-o-Y (%)

Launches -54%

Sales -23%

BSP3%

(5,114)

Inventory Overhang

5%(25)

Y-o-Y (%)

Launches 115%

Sales -13%

BSP0%

(5,116)

Inventory Overhang

-19%(25)

CHENNAI

Y-o-Y (%)

Launches 5%

Sales 10%

BSP-4%

(4,950)

Inventory Overhang

4%(32)

GURUGRAM Y-o-Y (%)

Launches -3%

Sales 26%

BSP14%

(4,902)

Inventory Overhang

-14%(17)

HYDERABAD Y-o-Y (%)

Launches -76%

Sales 15%

BSP1%

(3,889)

Inventory Overhang

40%(38)

KOLKATA

MMR Y-o-Y (%)

Launches -54%

Sales 4%

BSP3%

(9,295)

Inventory Overhang

-47%(33)

NOIDA Y-o-Y (%)

Launches -28%

Sales -50%

BSP-1%

(3,885)

Inventory Overhang

-69%(34)

Y-o-Y (%)

Launches 21%

Sales 5%

BSP2%

(4,795)

Inventory Overhang

-48%(27)

PUNE


Sales declined by 10% whereas inventory overhang improved by 3% over last quarter

Launches

Sales

Inventory Overhang

Q4 FY’18 Q2 FY’19 Q3 FY’19 Q4 FY’19Q1 FY’19

Price Trend

41%

36%

1%

-6%

Residential trends in top-9 cities* Q-o-Q

Notes: * Top 9 Cities are MMR (Mumbai, Navi Mumbai & Thane), Pune, Noida (including Greater Noida & Yamuna Expressway), Gurugram (including Bhiwadi, Dharuhera & Sohna), Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata and Ahmedabad.

Analysis includes apartments and villas across the regions.

2%

-3%

1%

- 4%

-21%

1%

25%

1%

-10%

0%

Strong/Marginal Decline/

Strong/Marginal Increase

Stable

- 32%

-10%

1%

-3%

8%

-10%


1…………... Launches: Struggling


Severe slowdown in launches, 32% decline over last year

1,08,925

87,08078,460

78,698

87,386

66,41160,728

46,955

66,019 67,203

52,876

65,841

44,834

10,000

30,000

50,000

70,000

90,000

1,10,000

Q4FY'16

Q1FY'17

Q2FY'17

Q3FY'17

Q4FY'17

Q1FY'18

Q2FY'18

Q3FY'18

Q4FY'18

Q1FY'19

Q2FY'19

Q3FY'19

Q4FY'19

Total units of launches in top-9 cities*# of units

32%

Notes: * Top 9 Cities are MMR (Mumbai including Navi Mumbai & Thane), Pune, Noida (including Greater Noida & Yamuna Expressway), Gurugram (including Bhiwadi, Dharuhera & Sohna), Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata and Ahmedabad.


32%


Launches picked up only in Chennai, Pune and marginally in Gurugram

8,1

22

10

,96

4

3,6

61

4,7

05 6

,28

5

5,3

66

16

,09

7

2,1

24

8,6

95

23

2

5,0

26

7,8

67

4,9

29 6,0

66

1,2

73

7,3

52

1,5

28

10

,56

1

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

18,000

Ahmedabad Bengaluru Chennai Gurugram^ Hyderabad Kolkata MMR** Noida* Pune

Total unit launches – Q4 FY’18 vs Q4 FY’19

Q4 FY'18

Q4 FY'19

# of units

Notes: * Noida includes Greater Noida and Yamuna Expressway.** MMR – Mumbai Metropolitan Region (Mumbai includes Navi Mumbai and Thane)^ Gurugram includes Bhiwadi, Dharuhera and Sohna.Analysis includes apartments and villas across the regions.


Affordable housing with <60 sq mts carpet area contributed ~58% of new units launched

19%12% 10% 12%

6%13% 12% 9% 8%

43%47% 49% 46%

38%

40% 44% 50% 50%

38% 41% 41% 42%

56%47% 44% 41% 42%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Q4FY'17

Q1FY'18

Q2FY'18

Q3FY'18

Q4FY'18

Q1FY'19

Q2FY'19

Q3FY'19

Q4FY'19

Q-o-Q size-wise unit launches in top-9* cities

Carpet Area <30 sq mts Carpet Area 30-60 sq mts Carpet Area >60 sq mts

% of units




~60% of new units launched were priced below <Rs. 50 Lakhs budget1

29% 28% 30% 28%

42%30% 31% 31% 29% 31%

22%

39%

23%

31% 33%35% 40%

28%

33% 27% 27% 33% 35%

38%

28%

34%

20% 17% 15%14%

15%18%

17% 16%19%

21%20%

17%

20%

6% 7% 9% 7% 5%8%

7% 7%

8%5%

8%6%

12%

14% 15% 11% 11% 10% 11%18% 19%

11% 8% 12% 10% 11%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Q4FY'16

Q1FY'17

Q2FY'17

Q3FY'17

Q4FY'17

Q1FY'18

Q2FY'18

Q3FY'18

Q4FY'18

Q1FY'19

Q2FY'19

Q3FY'19

Q-o-Q budget-wise unit launches in top-92 cities

< Rs.25 Lakhs Rs.25-50 Lakhs Rs.50-75 Lakhs Rs.75-100 Lakhs > Rs.1 Crore

% of units

Notes: 1. Budget is based on basic price and does not include additional costs as well as taxes, stamp duty and registration costs 2. Top 9 Cities are MMR (Mumbai including Navi Mumbai & Thane), Pune, Noida (including Greater Noida & Yamuna Expressway), Gurugram (including Bhiwadi, Dharuhera & Sohna), Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata and Ahmedabad.



2……Consumer & Demand :

Sales Momentum Subdued


Marginal decline in sales, only 5% over last year

80,230 79,420

72,581

60,049

67,86670,362

62,71158,504

79,601 77,09683,005 83,838

75,706

10,000

30,000

50,000

70,000

90,000

Q4FY'16

Q1FY'17

Q2FY'17

Q3FY'17

Q4FY'17

Q1FY'18

Q2FY'18

Q3FY'18

Q4FY'18

Q1FY'19

Q2FY'19

Q3FY'19

Q4FY'19

Sales trend in top-9 cities*# of units

Notes: * Top 9 Cities are MMR( Mumbai including Navi Mumbai & Thane), Pune, Noida (including Greater Noida & Yamuna Expressway), Gurugram (including Bhiwadi, Dharuhera & Sohna), Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata and Ahmedabad.


5%


Hyderabad followed by Gurugram witnessed significant improvement in sales over last year

5,2

89

10

,96

9

4,8

19

5,2

20

5,6

18

3,3

52

22

,90

4

7,7

18

13

,71

2

4,7

39

8,4

02

4,1

97 5,7

64

7,0

59

3,6

23

23

,71

8

3,8

56

14

,34

8

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000


Total unit sales – Q4 FY’18 vs Q4 FY’19Q4 FY'18

Q4 FY'19

# of units



Severe decline seen in sales of under-construction units

8,047 7,979 8,369 6,8438,981 9,851 8,401 7,155

14,49911,292 12,242 13,854 13,704

72,183 71,441

64,212

53,206

58,885 60,511

54,31051,349

65,102 65,80470,763 69,984

62,002

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Q4FY'16

Q1FY'17

Q2FY'17

Q3FY'17

Q4FY'17

Q1FY'18

Q2FY'18

Q3FY'18

Q4FY'18

Q1FY'19

Q2FY'19

Q3FY'19

Q4FY'19

Sales in top-9* cities: Completed vs Under-Construction projects

Completed Under Construction



# of units

19%

- 4 .9%

CAGR (12 qtrs)


<Rs.50 Lakhs budget1 segment continued to contribute >55% to sales

26% 26% 23% 24% 26% 26% 26% 23% 23% 26% 23% 25% 25%

33% 33% 34% 35% 34% 33% 31% 33% 33%33% 34% 32% 30%

18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 17% 19% 20% 19% 19% 18% 18%

8% 8% 9% 8% 7% 8% 9% 8% 8% 7% 9% 9% 11%

15% 15% 16% 15% 15% 15% 17% 17% 16% 15% 15% 16% 16%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Q4FY'16

Q1FY'17

Q2FY'17

Q3FY'17

Q4FY'17

Q1FY'18

Q2FY'18

Q3FY'18

Q4FY'18

Q1FY'19

Q2FY'19

Q3FY'19

Q4FY'19

Sales in top-92 cities by budget segment


% of units

Notes: 1. Budget is based on basic price and does not include additional costs as well as taxes, stamp duty and registration costs 2. Top 9 Cities are MMR (Mumbai including Navi Mumbai & Thane), Pune, Noida (including Greater Noida & Yamuna Expressway), Gurugram (including Bhiwadi, Dharuhera & Sohna), Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata and Ahmedabad.



Units with carpet area <60 sq mts contributed 49% to sales

11% 9% 7% 5% 5% 7% 8% 8% 8%

33% 35% 39% 40% 37%40% 40% 43% 41%

56% 56% 54% 55% 58% 53% 52% 49% 51%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Q4FY'17

Q1FY'18

Q2FY'18

Q3FY'18

Q4FY'18

Q1FY'19

Q2FY'19

Q3FY'19

Q4FY'19

Q-o-Q size-wise unit sales in top-9* cities


% of units

Notes: * Top 9 Cities are MMR(Mumbai including Navi Mumbai & Thane), Pune, Noida (including Greater Noida & Yamuna Expressway), Gurugram (including Bhiwadi, Dharuhera & Sohna), Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata and Ahmedabad.



Gurugram followed by Ahmedabad leads in affordable housing with more than one-third of the sales in < Rs.25 Lakhs budget1 segment

33%

6%

21%

43%

1%

30% 30%

17%30%

37%

32%

39%

15%

22%

39%

22% 46%

43%

18%

28%

18%12%

26%

16%

14%

19%

17%

3%

16%

9%14%

29%

8%

9%

7%

4%9%

18% 13% 16%22%

7%

25%

11%6%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Budget-wise sales in top-9* cities – Q4 FY’19


% of units

Notes: 1. Budget is based on basic price and does not include additional costs as well as taxes, stamp duty and registration costs * Noida includes Greater Noida and Yamuna Expressway. ** MMR – Mumbai Metropolitan Region (Mumbai includes Navi Mumbai and Thane) ^ Gurugram includes Bhiwadi, Dharuhera and Sohna.



Over 600,000 units are expected to be delivered in next 12 months

2,48,5182,72,908

3,54,3533,16,049 3,13,981

4,47,385

6,06,125

4,01,077

0

1,00,000

2,00,000

3,00,000

4,00,000

5,00,000

6,00,000

7,00,000

FY'14 FY'15 FY'16 FY'17 FY'18 FY'19 FY'20 FY'21

Units Delivered in Top – 9 cities

Units Delivered Expected Deliveries

Expected Delivery

# of units

Note: Analysis includes apartments and villas across the regions.


3………Inventory: Reduced Inventory

Overhang


Inventory overhang improves, reached at less than 3 years of sales velocity

Notes: * Top 9 Cities are MMR( Mumbai including Navi Mumbai & Thane), Pune, Noida (including Greater Noida & Yamuna Expressway), Gurugram (including Bhiwadi, Dharuhera & Sohna), Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata and Ahmedabad.


34 34 34

3740 41

42 4239

38

34

31 30

0

15

30

45

Q4FY'16

Q1FY'17

Q2FY'17

Q3FY'17

Q4FY'17

Q1FY'18

Q2FY'18

Q3FY'18

Q4FY'18

Q1FY'19

Q2FY'19

Q3FY'19

Q4FY'19

Q-o-Q overall inventory overhang in top-9* cities# of months


Unsold inventory lowest in last 3 years

8,7

5,2

22

8,8

2,5

52

8,8

7,5

96

9,0

5,0

23

9,2

3,8

31

9,1

8,8

75

9,1

6,4

32

9,0

4,8

75

8,9

0,7

19

8,8

0,7

62

8,5

0,3

68

8,3

2,3

71

8,0

0,4

38

-

2,00,000

4,00,000

6,00,000

8,00,000

10,00,000

Q4FY'16

Q1FY'17

Q2FY'17

Q3FY'17

Q4FY'17

Q1FY'18

Q2FY'18

Q3FY'18

Q4FY'18

Q1FY'19

Q2FY'19

Q3FY'19

Q4FY'19

Unsold inventory in top-9* cities as on quarter end

10%



# of units


NCR holds the highest share of unsold inventory aged above 3 years

27% 28%39%

24%31%

22%13%

8%

25%

20%10%

8%

10%

23%

13%19%

7%

16%

17%

14%

11%

8%

18%

24%

17%

9%

20%

36%48%

42%

58%

28%

41%51%

76%

39%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Age of unsold inventory in top-9 cities (Mar’19)

≤ 1 Yr 1 to 2 Yrs 2 to 3 Yrs > 3 Yrs

% of units

Notes: * Noida includes Greater Noida and Yamuna Expressway.** MMR – Mumbai Metropolitan Region (Mumbai includes Navi Mumbai and Thane.)^ Gurugram includes Bhiwadi, Dharuhera and Sohna.Analysis includes apartments and villas across the regions.


Hyderabad has the best inventory profile (lowest age as well as lowest overhang)


Analysis includes apartments and villas across the regions.Size of the bubble indicates total inventory in units.

Age of unsold inventory (months)

Inventory overhang (months)

AhmedabadBengaluru

Chennai

Gurugram

Hyderabad

Kolkata

MMR

Noida

Pune

20

30

40

50

60

70

15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Age of unsold inventory vs inventory overhang in top-9* cities(Mar’19)


Almost half of unsold units are sized below <60 sq mts carpet area

7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 9% 10% 10%

36% 37% 38% 38% 38% 38% 39% 38% 39%

57% 56% 55% 54% 54% 54% 52% 52% 51%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Q4FY'17

Q1FY'18

Q2FY'18

Q3FY'18

Q4FY'18

Q1FY'19

Q2FY'19

Q3FY'19

Q4FY'19

Q-o-Q size-wise unsold inventory in top-9* cities


% of units

Notes: * Top 9 Cities are Mumbai (including Navi Mumbai & Thane), Pune, Noida (including Greater Noida & Yamuna Expressway), Gurugram (including Bhiwadi, Dharuhera & Sohna), Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata and Ahmedabad.



Ahmedabad, Pune and Kolkata have more than 75% of the unsold inventory in the <Rs.50 Lakhs segment

% of units

44%

5%17%

33%

2%

39%32%

13%

35%

33%

30%

39%

20%

15%

36%

20% 54%

41%

9%

34%

19%13%

25%

13%

13%

19%

15%4%

14%11%

12%

24%

6%

8%

7%3%10%

17% 14%22%

34%

6%

27%

7% 6%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Budget1 breakup of unsold inventory (Mar’19)


Notes: 1. Budget is based on basic price and does not include additional costs as well as taxes, stamp duty and registration costs * Noida includes Greater Noida and Yamuna Expressway. ** MMR – Mumbai Metropolitan Region (Mumbai includes Navi Mumbai and Thane) ^ Gurugram includes Bhiwadi, Dharuhera and Sohna.



Ahmedabad and Chennai have the highest share of completed units in unsold inventory


% of units

29

%

23

%

26

%

19

%

10

% 17

%

10

% 21

%

14

%

71

%

77

%

74

%

81

%

90

% 83

%

90

% 79

%

86

%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Unsold inventory as on Mar’19 – Completed Vs Under-Construction

Completed Under Construction


4………Pricing: PositiveChanges


Hyderabad continued its price rally whereas prices in NCR corrected marginally

Notes: ^^ Price weighted on number of units supply in respective projects in a city.* Noida includes Greater Noida and Yamuna Expressway.** MMR – Mumbai Metropolitan Region (Mumbai includes Navi Mumbai and Thane)^ Gurugram includes Bhiwadi, Dharuhera and Sohna.Analysis includes apartments across the regions.

City Q4 FY’18 Q4 FY’19Price Change

(Y-o-Y)

Ahmedabad 2,843 2,825 -1%

Bengaluru 4,989 5,114 3%

Chennai 5,123 5,116 0%

Gurugram^ 5,130 4,950 -4%

Hyderabad 4,317 4,902 14%

Kolkata 3,831 3,889 1%

MMR** 9,020 9,295 3%

Noida* 3,906 3,866 -1%

Pune 4,720 4,795 2%

Weighted average^^ BSP (Rs./sq.ft.) of apartment units as at the end of quarter


5………Macro Indicators


Key Developments

Policy Changes

• The GST Council has notified formation of a ministerial panel which will study problems plaguing the real estate sectorunder the indirect tax regime and suggest remedial measures.

• The Goods and Service Tax Council approved the transition plan to move towards new tax rates for the real estate sectorby giving builder an option to levy the old tax rate if they want. Choosing the old tax rates for projects, construction forwhich was started before March 31, will help builders to avail their accumulated input tax credit. New projects startingfrom April 1 will have the new tax rates of 1 percent for affordable housing projects, and 5 percent for other housingprojects without the benefit of input tax credit.

• Realty sector hope for revival in housing sales after RBI decision to cut Repo Rate by 25 bps to 6.25 per cent, which wouldmake home loans easier and cheaper for the home buyers provided the public sector banks and other lending institutionspass on the benefit to their customers.

Infrastructure Developments

• Maharashtra clears phase II of Nagpur metro worth Rs 11,216 crore.

• The Delhi Metro Rail Corporation (DMRC) has submitted a revised detailed project report (DPR) for a further extension ofthe Blue Line — the metro phase 3 corridor (Noida Electronic City-Mohan Nagar).

• The improved connectivity by the Aqua Line may encourage fence sitters looking for an affordable, ready-to-move-in unitsto take a call on purchasing a house, but there may not be a massive price appreciation due to oversupply in the market.


Key transactions of last quarter

Buyer SellerSize

(Acres)Amount

(Rs. crore)Location Deal Status

Godrej Properties Rail Land Development Authority 27.0 1,100 Ashok Vihar, New Delhi Done

TVS Emerald Housing SNP Infrastructure 6.5 150 Chennai Done

Ascendas-Singbridge Group GSquare Group 12.2 175 Pallavaram–Thoraipakkam Road, Chennai Done

Land Deals

Buyer Seller PropertyAmount

(Rs. crore)Location Deal Status

Blackstone Group LLP and Salarpuria Sattva group

Tanglin Developments Global Village Tech Park 2,800 BengaluruOngoing

Discussion

Commercial Space Buyouts

Tenant PropertyArea

(lakh sq.ft.)Location Lease Type

Bank of America DLF Cyber Park 5.0 Gurgaon Fresh Lease

Samsung R&D Institute Bagmane Goldstone 4.0 Bengaluru Fresh Lease

WPP India ORB complex 3.0 Mumbai Fresh Lease

WeWork Vijay Diamond 1.0 Mumbai Fresh Lease

Leasing Deals


Outlook for Q1 FY’20

• New transition rules of GST might create confusion in the minds of buyers. Developer’s have time till 10th May to

decide on final rates for their projects and this will have impact on sales in next quarter

• Launches will continue to stay low in next quarter impacted primarily by election results

• New GST rates for affordable housing has brought cheer to this segment as definition of affordable housing has

been expanded

• We expect prices to start moving up in most cities as developers adjust their pricing to include impact of lack of

input tax credits

Thank You

Documents

Real Insight –Q4 FY’19naredco.in/notification/pdfs/Real Insight Q4 FY19.pdf · • Hyderabad continued its price rally whereas prices in NCR and Ahmedabad witnessed correction