Real-Time High-Resolution MM5 and WRF Forecasts during

RAINEX

John P. Cangialosi1*, S. S. Chen1, W. Zhao1, D. Ortt1 W. Wang2 and J. Michalakas2

1University of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL2NCAR/MMM, Boulder, CO

*Current affiliation: NOAA/NWS/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL

Objectives

• During the RAINEX field program (Aug-Sept 2005): Conduct a real-time mini ensemble of high-resolution model forecasts for the RAINEX flight mission planning.

• In this study:

Evaluate and validate the RAINEX mini ensemble and global model forecasts of the storm track, intensity, structure, and rainfall for Hurricanes Katrina, Ophelia and Rita.

Examine the models’ skill in tropical cyclogenesis.

Models

• UM/RSMAS MM5 (& WRF): Domains - three nested grids (15, 5, 1.67km)Physics – Blackadar PBL, Reisner microphysicsInitial & Lateral B.C. - GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, CMC 3-5 day forecasts daily at 0000 UTC  

• NCAR/MMMWRF:Domains - two nested grids (12 and 4km)Physics – NYSU PBL, Thompson microphysics, etc.Initial & Lateral B.C. – GFDL (or GFS if GFDL is not available) 3-5 day forecasts daily at 0000 UTC

RAINEX model configuration

When no storm is present• At least 4 models run daily at 00 UTC from Aug 15 - Sept 30• MM5-gfs, MM5-cmc, MM5-nogaps, WRF-gfs and MM5-gfdl (when

available)• 1-domain 15 km resolution (200 x 300 grid pts.)

RAINEX modeling configurationWhen a storm is present

• Additional high-resolution MM5 and WRF simulations are conducted in 2 and 3 domains.

15 km

5 km (121 x 121) grid pts.

1.67 km (151 x 151) grid pts.

• Insert slide here…..

Model output without adjustingfor initial track error

Hurricane Rita

72 h

72 h

72 h

• Intensity verification

Model output without adjustingfor initial track error

Hurricane Katrina

Hurricane Ophelia

Hurricane Rainfall

16-20 in.

MM5-cmc 5km 48-h forecast

TC Genesis

Satellite imagery

MM5-cmc 66 h forecast

Conclusions

• High-resolution mini-ensemble forecasts in real-time are valuable for mission planning and overall understanding of the storm structure, rainfall, evolution, and intensity change.

• High-resolution MM5 and WRF improve intensity forecasts significantly compared with the global models. However, the track errors are still large, especial MM5 timing errors in Hurricane Rita.

• Accurate initial and lateral boundary conditions for

high-res models are needed.

Acknowledgments

Support from JOSS, UNIDATA, CMC, GFDL, NCEP, NOGAPS is critical to the success of RAINEX real-time forecasts.

RAINEX is support by NSF research grants ATM-0432623 and ATM-0432717.