Department of the Environment

Reducing Maryland’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions:

A State’s Perspective

Renee Fizer, Climate Change Division-MDE

Greenhouse Gases (GHG)• The debate related to the

science of global warming is now over

• Major concerns in MD:

– Rise in coastal waters

– Loss of aquatic life (impacts to oysters, rockfish and the bay ecosystem)

– Potential for extreme weather conditions

– More …

July 20, 2007 www.mdclimatechange.us3

MD Projected Emissions - 1990-2020

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20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

MM

tCO

2e

Electricity (Consumption Based) Fossil Fuel Industry RCI Fuel Use

Onroad Gasoline Use Onroad Diesel Use Jet Fuel/Other Transportation

Agriculture ODS Substitutes Other Ind. Process

Waste Management

DRAFT – PRELIMINARY DATA – FOR DISCUSSION ONLY

Examples of Maryland’s GHG Emission Reduction Programs

• Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI)

• Maryland Clean Cars Act

• EmPOWER Maryland

• Governor’s Executive Order – Maryland Commission on Climate Change

RGGI

• RGGI is a cooperative effort of New England and Mid-Atlantic states

• Establishes a cap-and-trade program focused on power plant emissions of greenhouse gases (CO2)

• First CO2 cap-and-trade program of its kind

Reductions from RGGI• Program starts January 1,

2009

• Applies to fossil fuel-fired electric generating units 25 megawatts and larger

• Involves a two-phase cap. Will stabilize MD emissions 2009-2014 at 37.5 tons, then reduce emissions 10% by 2018

• RGGI signatory states will conduct a comprehensive program review in 2012

Clean Cars (CAL LEV II)• The Maryland Clean Cars Program

will provide small but meaningful reductions of:

– Nitrogen Oxides (NOx)

– Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs)

– Air Toxics

– These reductions will help Maryland meet federal ozone and fine particle standards

• The major new pollutant reduced is greenhouse gases

– Approximate 30% additional reduction by 2016

• Reduced operating costs will produce savings for MD consumers that are expected to offset slightly higher purchase cost.

Existing Energy Programs that Reduce GHG Emissions

• Maryland Strategic Electricity Plan

• EmPOWER MD

• High Performance Buildings

• Renewable Portfolio Standards

• Incentives for use of Renewable Energy Choices

Maryland Commission on Climate Change

• Establishes a climate change commission charged with addressing Maryland’s climate challenge on all fronts

• Three specific areas of concern:

– Mitigation (MDE & MEA)

– Adaptation (DNR & Planning)

– Science and effects in Maryland (U of M & MDE)

• Interim Report at midpoint (Jan 08)

• Action Plan by Spring 2008

Science & Technical Working Group

A Sub-tropical Bay?

Adaptation & Response Working Group

• Climate Change Adaptation & Response Planning

• Maryland’s Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise & Coastal Storms

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Greenhouse Gas & Carbon Mitigation Working Group

Gross GHG Emissions By Sector

Transport26%

Industrial Process

5%

Res/Com Fuel Use

9%

Fossil Fuel Ind. (CH4) 3%

Industrial Fuel Use

14%

Waste4%

Electricity32%

Agric.7%

US

Maryland

ElectricityConsump.

38%

Fossil Fuel Ind. (CH4)

0.5%

Industrial Fuel Use

8%

Res/Com Fuel Use

13%

Transpor-tation32%

Industrial Process

3%

Waste3%

Agriculture3%

Year 2000 Data

Goals Set by Commission • 2012 - 10% below 2006 levels (using a consumption based approach)

– Used to drive early reductions and as a reduction target for the State Action Plan

• 2015 - 15% below 2006 levels

– Used as a early reduction target for the State Action Plan

• 2020 - 25% to 50% below 2006 levels by 2020

– 25% used as the “minimum” enforceable driver for proposed Global Warming Solutions legislation

• Programs to implement GWS will reward over-control

– 50% used as a science-based non-regulatory target for the 2020 time-frame• Very aggressive target, but consistent with recommendations from the IPCC

• To be linked to implementation of broader regional effort or national program

• 2050 - 90% below 2006 levels

– Used as a science based regulatory goal in GWS

– Also a driver for research and development of climate neutral technology/ programs/ innovations

• Mid-Course Review every 4 years

MM

TC

O2e

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20

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60

80

100

120

140

160

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Reminder: How to do we get to our 2020 Goals? – Hypothetical Example

Reduction Goal: >25% by 2020 = very close to 1990 emissions by 2020

Energy Supply Programs (ex: RGGI)

Transportation and Land Use Programs (ex: Calev)

Residential Commercial Industrial Programs (ex: Light Bulbs)

Agriculture Forestry and Waste Programs (ex: Tree Programs)

For Demonstration Purposes Only

Interim Report - Jan ‘08Early Action Items:

• Global Warming Solutions Act of 2008 - California AB-32 like program focusing on economy wide GHG reductions

• Energy Efficiency (performance standards, energy investment fund, building codes, lighting efficiency, etc.)

• Renewable Portfolio Standard amendments– require higher % of renewable energy in Maryland

• Located at www.mde.state.md.us or www.mdclimatechange.us

Commission Spring Report

Development & Analyses of over 70 policy options• Data is very preliminary

• Some estimates are still being revised

• Tons needed to achieve a 25% to 50%

reduction from 2006 levels by 2020

- 50 to 77 tons per year reduction

• Very rough estimate of cumulative total reductions from 70 policy options by 2020

- 60 to 75 tons per year reduction

Final Climate Action Plan due

in Spring of 2008

Questions?

Renee Fizer, CCD-MDE

rfizer@mde.state.md.us

410-537-4219