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Regional Climate Downscaling and needs in Malaysia Fredolin Tangang 1 Liew Juneng 1 Ling Leong Kwok 2 1) The Na8onal University of Malaysia 2) Malaysian Meteorological Department

Regional)Climate)Downscaling) …...Annual)rainfall)by)PRECIS)and)surface)observaon ) R²)=0.04417) R²)=0.60836) R²)=0.47585) 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1954 1964 1974 1984

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Page 1: Regional)Climate)Downscaling) …...Annual)rainfall)by)PRECIS)and)surface)observaon ) R²)=0.04417) R²)=0.60836) R²)=0.47585) 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1954 1964 1974 1984

Regional  Climate  Downscaling  and  needs  in  Malaysia  

Fredolin  Tangang1  Liew  Juneng1  

Ling  Leong  Kwok2    

1)  The  Na8onal  University  of  Malaysia  2)  Malaysian  Meteorological  

Department    

Page 2: Regional)Climate)Downscaling) …...Annual)rainfall)by)PRECIS)and)surface)observaon ) R²)=0.04417) R²)=0.60836) R²)=0.47585) 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1954 1964 1974 1984

Background  •  Regional  climate  ac8vi8es  are  limited  •  Three  ins8tu8ons  carried  out  regional  climate  downscaling  –  Na8onal  Hydraulic  Research  Ins8tute  Malaysia  (NAHRIM)  (carried  out  through  a  foreign  consultant)  

– Malaysian  Meteorological  Department  (used  PRECIS  Hadley  Centre  UKMO)  

–  Na8onal  Univ.  Malaysia  (used  PRECIS  Hadley  Centre  UKMO)  

•  All  based  on  AR4  products  •  Not  much  of  impact  studies  using  downscaled  products  •  Malaysia  needs  latest  AR5  product  at  high  resolu8on  (~  25km)  for  impact  assessment  studies  

Page 3: Regional)Climate)Downscaling) …...Annual)rainfall)by)PRECIS)and)surface)observaon ) R²)=0.04417) R²)=0.60836) R²)=0.47585) 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1954 1964 1974 1984

Presenta8on  parts  

•  Part  I:  PRECIS/ERA40,  PRECIS/HadCM3    [Fredolin  Tangang:  5  minutes]  

•  Part  2:  MMD  downscaling  [Ling  Leong  Kwok:  5  minutes]    

•  Part  3:  Bias  Correc8on  [Liew  Juneng:5  minutes]  

Page 4: Regional)Climate)Downscaling) …...Annual)rainfall)by)PRECIS)and)surface)observaon ) R²)=0.04417) R²)=0.60836) R²)=0.47585) 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1954 1964 1974 1984

PRECIS Simulation domain

137

100

RCM:  HadRM3P    Resolu8on:  0.22°×  0.22°      BC:  ERA40,    HadAM3P,  HadCM3  ECHAM5      HadCM3    (1970-­‐2100)            

Page 5: Regional)Climate)Downscaling) …...Annual)rainfall)by)PRECIS)and)surface)observaon ) R²)=0.04417) R²)=0.60836) R²)=0.47585) 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1954 1964 1974 1984

Kwan  et  al  (2013)  

Temperature  

Correla8on  

Page 6: Regional)Climate)Downscaling) …...Annual)rainfall)by)PRECIS)and)surface)observaon ) R²)=0.04417) R²)=0.60836) R²)=0.47585) 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1954 1964 1974 1984

!""#$%&'()%*&Annual cycle of Mean Surface Temperature

Page 7: Regional)Climate)Downscaling) …...Annual)rainfall)by)PRECIS)and)surface)observaon ) R²)=0.04417) R²)=0.60836) R²)=0.47585) 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1954 1964 1974 1984
Page 8: Regional)Climate)Downscaling) …...Annual)rainfall)by)PRECIS)and)surface)observaon ) R²)=0.04417) R²)=0.60836) R²)=0.47585) 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1954 1964 1974 1984

Kwan  et  al  (2013)  

Precipita8on  

Correla8on  

Page 9: Regional)Climate)Downscaling) …...Annual)rainfall)by)PRECIS)and)surface)observaon ) R²)=0.04417) R²)=0.60836) R²)=0.47585) 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1954 1964 1974 1984

Annual cycle of Mean Precipitation

Page 10: Regional)Climate)Downscaling) …...Annual)rainfall)by)PRECIS)and)surface)observaon ) R²)=0.04417) R²)=0.60836) R²)=0.47585) 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1954 1964 1974 1984
Page 11: Regional)Climate)Downscaling) …...Annual)rainfall)by)PRECIS)and)surface)observaon ) R²)=0.04417) R²)=0.60836) R²)=0.47585) 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1954 1964 1974 1984

Kwan  et  al  (2013)  

850  mb  winds   MSLP  

Page 12: Regional)Climate)Downscaling) …...Annual)rainfall)by)PRECIS)and)surface)observaon ) R²)=0.04417) R²)=0.60836) R²)=0.47585) 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1954 1964 1974 1984

Projected Tmean Changes for 2070-2100

Page 13: Regional)Climate)Downscaling) …...Annual)rainfall)by)PRECIS)and)surface)observaon ) R²)=0.04417) R²)=0.60836) R²)=0.47585) 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1954 1964 1974 1984

Projected Mean Precip changes for 2070-2100

mm/month

Page 14: Regional)Climate)Downscaling) …...Annual)rainfall)by)PRECIS)and)surface)observaon ) R²)=0.04417) R²)=0.60836) R²)=0.47585) 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1954 1964 1974 1984

Annual  rainfall  by  PRECIS  and  surface  observa8on  

R²  =  0.04417  

R²  =  0.60836  

R²  =  0.47585  

1000  

1500  

2000  

2500  

3000  

3500  

4000  

1954   1964   1974   1984   1994   2004   2014   2024   2034   2044   2054   2064   2074   2084   2094  

Rainfall  (m

m)  

Year  

Peninsular  Malaysia    

HADCM3Q0   ECHAM5   STATION  DATA  

R²  =  0.08618  

R²  =  0.76283  

R²  =  0.15992  

1000  

1500  

2000  

2500  

3000  

3500  

4000  

1954   1964   1974   1984   1994   2004   2014   2024   2034   2044   2054   2064   2074   2084   2094  

Rainfall  (m

m)  

Year  

Sabah  &  Sarawak  

HADCM3Q0   ECHAM5   STATION  DATA  

25-­‐km  PRECIS  RCM  driven  by  E C H AM5   AOG CM   h a s  projected   higher   rainfall  c ompa red   t o   HadCM3  AOGCM.   However ,   the  baseline  period  of  the  PRECIS  driven   by   ECHAM5   almost  resembles   the   observed  sta8on  data.    

Similarly,   in   Sabah   and  S a r awak   t h e   E CHAM5  AOGCM  has  projected  higher  r a i n f a l l   c omp a r e d   t o  HadCM3  AOGCM.      

*  The  annual  rainfall  is  calculated  by  using  a    5  year  moving  average  

Page 15: Regional)Climate)Downscaling) …...Annual)rainfall)by)PRECIS)and)surface)observaon ) R²)=0.04417) R²)=0.60836) R²)=0.47585) 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1954 1964 1974 1984

Annual  temperature  by  PRECIS  and  surface  observa8on  

R²  =  0.96087  

R²  =  0.92831  R²  =  0.54754  

23  

25  

27  

29  

31  

1954   1964   1974   1984   1994   2004   2014   2024   2034   2044   2054   2064   2074   2084   2094  

Tempe

rature  (⁰C)  

Year  

Peninsular  Malaysia    

HADCM3Q0   ECHAM5   STATION  DATA  

R²  =  0.9605  

R²  =  0.93818  

R²  =  0.68426  

23  

25  

27  

29  

31  

1954   1964   1974   1984   1994   2004   2014   2024   2034   2044   2054   2064   2074   2084   2094  

Tempe

rature  (⁰C)  

Year  

Sabah  &  Sarawak  

HADCM3Q0   ECHAM5   STATION  DATA  

In   accordance   to   the   IPCC  A R 4   r e p o r t ,   t h e  temperature   projected   by  the   25-­‐km   PRECIS   RCM  driven  by  ECHAM5  AOGCM  and   HadCM3   AOGCM  showed   an   increasing  trend.      

Similarly   in   Sabah   and  Sarawak,  both  the  models  show   an   increasing   trend  i n   t e m p e r a t u r e .    However,     the   observed  sta8on   data   recorded  h i ghe r   t empe r a t u r e  c o m p a r e   t o   t h o s e  simulated  by  the  models.  

*  The  annual  temperature  is  calculated  by  using  a  5  year  moving  average  

Page 16: Regional)Climate)Downscaling) …...Annual)rainfall)by)PRECIS)and)surface)observaon ) R²)=0.04417) R²)=0.60836) R²)=0.47585) 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1954 1964 1974 1984

Annual  averages  of  rainfall  and  temperature  from  principal  meteorological  sta8ons  for  the  period  of  1971  to  2012  

R²  =  0.11288  

R²  =  0.06331  

1000.0  

1500.0  

2000.0  

2500.0  

3000.0  

3500.0  

4000.0  

1971   1976   1981   1986   1991   1996   2001   2006   2011  

Rainfall  (m

m)  

Year  

Annual  Average  for  Rainfall  from  1971  to  2012  

Peninsula   Sabah&Sarawak  

R²  =  0.2515  

R²  =  0.45535  

25.0  

25.5  

26.0  

26.5  

27.0  

27.5  

28.0  

28.5  

29.0  

1971   1976   1981   1986   1991   1996   2001   2006   2011  

Tempe

rature  (⁰C)  

Year  

Annual  Average  for  Temperature  from  1971  to  2012  

Peninsula   Sabah&Sarawak  

The  annual  averages  of  rainfall  in  Sabah   &   Sarawak   are   greater  than  that  in  Peninsular  Malaysia.    The   inter-­‐annual   variability     is  observed   apparently   in   both  regions.  

The   temperature   averages  in   Peninsular   Malaysia   and  Sabah   &   Sarawak   show  s im i l a r   p a h e r n s .   A n  increasing  trend  is  observed  over  the  given  period.  

Page 17: Regional)Climate)Downscaling) …...Annual)rainfall)by)PRECIS)and)surface)observaon ) R²)=0.04417) R²)=0.60836) R²)=0.47585) 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1954 1964 1974 1984

Projected  change  in  annual  mean  rainfall  relaKve  to  1970  to  1999    

Projected    change  in  rainfall  (%)  for  2025-­‐2034  

Projected    change  in  rainfall  (%)  for  2041-­‐2050  

Projected    change  in  rainfall  (%)  for  2090-­‐2099  

Projected    change  in  rainfall  (%)  for  2025-­‐2034  

Projected    change  in  rainfall  (%)  for  2041-­‐2050    

Projected    change  in  rainfall  (%)  for  2090-­‐2099  

HADCM3   ECHAM5  

Page 18: Regional)Climate)Downscaling) …...Annual)rainfall)by)PRECIS)and)surface)observaon ) R²)=0.04417) R²)=0.60836) R²)=0.47585) 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1954 1964 1974 1984

Projected  change  in  annual  mean  temperature  relaKve  to  1970  to  1999    

Projected    1.5  m  temperature  change  (⁰C)  for  2025-­‐2034  

Projected    1.5  m  temperature  change  (⁰C)  for  2041-­‐2050    

Projected    1.5  m  temperature  change  (⁰C)  for  2090-­‐2099  

Projected    1.5  m  temperature  change  (⁰C)  for  2025-­‐2034  

Projected    1.5  m  temperature  change  (⁰C)  for  2090-­‐2099  

Projected    1.5  m  temperature  change  (⁰C)  for  2041-­‐2050    

HADCM3   ECHAM5  

Page 19: Regional)Climate)Downscaling) …...Annual)rainfall)by)PRECIS)and)surface)observaon ) R²)=0.04417) R²)=0.60836) R²)=0.47585) 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1954 1964 1974 1984

MOSES1  vs  MOSES2.2  (PRECIS)  

•  MOSES2.2  generally  warmer  compare  to  MOSES1.  Hence  reducing  the  magnitude  of  the  cold  biases  over  most  part  of  Malaysia.      

•  Impact  of  different  land  surface  scheme  to  precipita8on  simula8on  is  less  clear.  

Seasons  

Peninsular

Malaysia  East Malaysia  

MOSES1   MOSES2.2   MOSES1   MOSES2.2  

DJF   1.52   1.14   1.77   1.40  

MAM   1.56   1.19   1.82   1.42  

JJA   1.48   1.14   1.77   1.35  

SON   1.43   1.13   1.84   1.44  

Table:  Spa8al  mean  absolute  error  (MAE)  (unit:  °C)  of  seasonal  mean  temperature  averaged  over  both  Peninsular  and  East  Malaysia  

APHR

ODITE_M

YS  (O

BS)  

MOSES1  Biases  

 MOSES2.2  Biases  

 

Page 20: Regional)Climate)Downscaling) …...Annual)rainfall)by)PRECIS)and)surface)observaon ) R²)=0.04417) R²)=0.60836) R²)=0.47585) 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1954 1964 1974 1984

Bias  correc8on  of  the  RCM  output  

•  Algorithm:  quan8le  mapping.  •  Considerable  space  /  seasonal  varia8on  of  he  skills.    •  Not  all  biases  are  sta8onary  (careful).    

APHR

ODITE_M

YS  

PREC

IS  (R

aw)  

PREC

IS  

(Bias  C

orrected

)  

Seasons  

Peninsular

Malaysia  East Malaysia  

Before

Correction  

After

Correction  

Before

Correction  

After

Correction  

Dec-Jan-Feb   2.14  1.04

(51%)  3.37  

2.21

(34%)  

Mar-Apr-May   3.29  0.69

(79%)  3.86  

0.85

(77%)  

Jun-Jul-Aug   3.07  0.63

(79%)  3.05  

0.93

(69%)  

Sep-Oct-Nov   4.03  1.04

(74%)  3.01  

1.14

(62%)  

Table:  The  spa8al  MAE  (1986-­‐1999)  for  the  seasonal  mean  of  daily  rainfall  (unit:  mm/day)  with  reference  to  the  values  calculated  from  the  0.05°×0.05°  version  of  the  APHRODITE_MYS  before  and  amer  the  applica8on  of  the  developed  bias  correc8on  algorithm  

Page 21: Regional)Climate)Downscaling) …...Annual)rainfall)by)PRECIS)and)surface)observaon ) R²)=0.04417) R²)=0.60836) R²)=0.47585) 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1954 1964 1974 1984

Dec-­‐Jan-­‐Feb   Mar-­‐Apr-­‐May   Jun-­‐Jul-­‐Aug   Sep-­‐Oct-­‐Nov  

2011  -­‐  2040  

2041  -­‐  2070  

2071  -­‐  2100  

Projected  changes  of  seasonal  90th    percen8le  of  daily  precipita8on    (SRES  A1B  HadCM3/PRECIS)  

Page 22: Regional)Climate)Downscaling) …...Annual)rainfall)by)PRECIS)and)surface)observaon ) R²)=0.04417) R²)=0.60836) R²)=0.47585) 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1954 1964 1974 1984

Dec-­‐Jan-­‐Feb   Mar-­‐Apr-­‐May   Jun-­‐Jul-­‐Aug   Sep-­‐Oct-­‐Nov  

2011  -­‐  2040  

2041  -­‐  2070  

2071  -­‐  2100  

Projected  changes  of  seasonal  daily  precipita8on  intensity  (SDI)  

(SRES  A1B  HadCM3/PRECIS)    

Page 23: Regional)Climate)Downscaling) …...Annual)rainfall)by)PRECIS)and)surface)observaon ) R²)=0.04417) R²)=0.60836) R²)=0.47585) 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1954 1964 1974 1984

Projected   changes   of   mean   temperature   with   respect   to   the  baseline  period  of  1970-­‐2000  (SRES  A1B  HadCM3/PRECIS)    

Page 24: Regional)Climate)Downscaling) …...Annual)rainfall)by)PRECIS)and)surface)observaon ) R²)=0.04417) R²)=0.60836) R²)=0.47585) 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1954 1964 1974 1984

Using  bias  correc8on  method  directly  from  the  GCMs  output  (RCP8.5)  

Used  CMIP5  GCMs    IPSL  CanESM  MPI  CSIRO-­‐MK3  NorESM  MIROC5  

Page 25: Regional)Climate)Downscaling) …...Annual)rainfall)by)PRECIS)and)surface)observaon ) R²)=0.04417) R²)=0.60836) R²)=0.47585) 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1954 1964 1974 1984

Projected  changes  of  FREQ,  INTEN,  Q90  (RCP8.5)  

FREQ  

INTEN  

Q90  

Used  CMIP5  GCMs    IPSL  CanESM  MPI  CSIRO-­‐MK3  NorESM  MIROC5  

Page 26: Regional)Climate)Downscaling) …...Annual)rainfall)by)PRECIS)and)surface)observaon ) R²)=0.04417) R²)=0.60836) R²)=0.47585) 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1954 1964 1974 1984

Summary  •  The  presenta8on  provides  snapshots  of  the  kind  of  climate  downscaling  ac8vi8es  we  had  in  Malaysia  based  on  PRECIS  

•  PRECIS  simulates  temperature  and  precipita8on  over  Malaysia  with  biases  

•  The  error  in  the  data  may  also  contribute  to  the  biases  in  PRECIS  out  put  

•  We  demonstrated  bias  correc8on  may  be  needed  and  may  be  working  if  the  error  is  systema8c    

•  [We  have  done  some  work  on  GCMs  evalua8on.  We  hope  to  show  2-­‐3  slides  of  this  work  may  be  tomorrow].  


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