21
REIT Strategy Review 4Q2020 Real Estate Securities Team: Bruce G. Garrison, CFA Managing Director | Portfolio Manager Matthew R. Werner, CFA Portfolio Manager | Analyst Michael J. Stavar, CPA, CFP VP- Marketing, Consultant & Institutional Sales 1177 West Loop South, Suite 1750

REIT Strategy Review

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    4

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: REIT Strategy Review

REIT Strategy Review 4Q2020

Real Estate Securities Team:

Bruce G. Garrison, CFAManaging Director | Portfolio Manager

Matthew R. Werner, CFAPortfolio Manager | Analyst

Michael J. Stavar, CPA, CFP VP- Marketing, Consultant & Institutional Sales

1177 West Loop South, Suite 1750

Page 2: REIT Strategy Review

Firm Overview• Independent multi-generational investment firm based in Houston, TX founded 1996 - AUM as of

12/31/2020 is approximately $1.7 billion (assets include all SMAs and the West Loop RealtyFund)

• Equity manager providing investment services to financial institutions, corporate retirementplans and benefit trusts, foundations, endowments, family offices and high net worth individuals

• Growth & Income strategy investment team consists of 3 portfolio managers and 1 analyst with a 20year track record. AUM as of 12/31/2020 is approximately $1.2 billion.

• REIT investment team consists of 2 portfolio managers with a 16 year track record - strategy assetsas of 12/31/2020 equate to approximately $550 million

• Depth of intellectual capital:• Separate research/portfolio management teams are responsible for each investment strategy• Segregated client service/sales team• Career investment professionals: MBAs, CFAs, CPAs, CFPs, JDs

2

Page 3: REIT Strategy Review

REIT Strategy Introduction• Invests in publicly traded US equity REITs to provide clients with diversification and a growing income

stream, along with long term appreciation potential

• Bruce Garrison, CFA and Matt Werner, CFA serve as Co-Portfolio Managers

• Available via separately managed account, 40 Act fund, or model delivery (on select platforms)

Garrison Werner

49 yrs.15 yrs.64 yrs.

Investment IndustryInvolvement

3

Page 4: REIT Strategy Review

* For details as to Gross and Netcomparativeperformance as defined by GIPS®, pleasesee the Performance Disclosure at theendof this presentation.

Chilton Capital REIT Composite Gross of Fees*

Chilton Capital REIT Composite

Net of Fees*

MSCI USREIT

INDEX

Barclays Agg.Bond Index

2020 -2.9% -3.7% -7.6% 7.5%2019 30.9% 29.8% 25.8% 8.7%2018 -7.6% -8.3% -4.6% 0.0%2017 8.4% 7.4% 5.1% 3.5%2016 9.2% 8.1% 8.6% 2.7%2015 6.7% 5.8% 2.5% 5.5%2014 33.8% 32.7% 30.4% 6.0%2013 5.1% 4.2% 2.5% -2.0%2012 25.6% 24.6% 17.8% 4.2%2011 9.4% 8.5% 8.7% 7.8%2010 24.1% 23.1% 28.5% 6.5%

YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 7 Years 10 YearsSince

Inception 1/1/05

Chilton Capital REIT Composite Gross of Fees* -2.9% -2.9% 5.5% 6.8% 10.3% 11.1% 9.9%

Chilton Capital REIT Composite Net of Fees* -3.7% -3.7% 4.7% 5.9% 9.4% 10.2% 9.0%

MSCI US REIT Index -7.6% -7.6% 3.5% 4.8% 7.8% 8.3% 6.8%

Barclays Agg. Bond Index 7.5% 7.5% 5.3% 4.4% 4.1% 3.8% 4.4%

Performance ResultsCHILTON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT REIT COMPOSITE VS. BENCHMARKS (as of December 31, 2020)

YEARLY RETURN

4

Page 5: REIT Strategy Review

• Experienced professional REIT investment team with a successful time-tested strategy- extensive knowledge and industry contact with REIT property management teams- Mr. Werner has worked with strategy founder Mr. Garrison since 2008

• Disciplined long-term view on stock selection, focus on 2-4 year market trends- proprietary modeling, nationwide property tours, meetings with management

• Manage with conviction to make every company a meaningful portfolio component- our size offers flexibility- our location away from NYC prevents “herd” mentality

• Communication- a monthly publication on various topics regarding the commercial real estate market

to keep clients current (see www.chiltoncapital.com/category/library/reit-outlook)- a monthly commentary enhances accountability to clients for relative and

absolute performance

Chilton REIT Advantage

5

Page 6: REIT Strategy Review

• Real estate can be an essential component of a diversified portfolio providing an uncorrelated, inflation-linked asset class that potentially lowers portfolio risk and increases total return

• We believe publicly traded REITs are superior vehicles for a real estate allocation due toproven management, liquidity, transparency, and attractive total returns

• REITs provide the ability to diversify by geography, sector, strategy, property, and tenant

• Equity REITs provide investors growing dividend income to help offset rising interest rates and inflation,over the long term

• The ideal portfolio is constructed using 25-35 high conviction equity REITs/Real Estate Related Entities andmanaged with low turnover

• Active management of REITs is at an advantage due to extensive valuation comparables, particularlyin the private market, and high predictability of cash flow

Investment Philosophy

6

Page 7: REIT Strategy Review

Source: Citi Research, Factset (12/31/2020)

Case for Active Management: Difference Between Top and Bottom Quartile REITs

7

Page 8: REIT Strategy Review

Source: Bloomberg; Chilton Capital Management

Case for Active Management: REIT Composite Active Weight of Top and Bottom Return Quartiles

8

Page 9: REIT Strategy Review

REIT Team ObjectiveTo produce 200 basis points (bps) of annualized outperformance versus the MSCI US REIT Index overa trailing 5 year period

Goal is to achieve this objective by:

• Proprietary analytics, including financial models, sector research, and economic estimates

• High conviction- No position under 1%- Concentrated in 25-35 names- Top 10 positions = ~50%

• Strict adherence to buy/sell triggers

• Contrarian ideas

• High active share (at least 65%)

• Use of cash and defensive names to dampen downside volatility

9

Page 10: REIT Strategy Review

Current Fundamentals• Occupancy expected to suffer near term in many property types due to the repercussions from COVID-19

• External growth initiatives are poised for a substantial rebound after a quiet 2020

• Recovering Same Store NOI (SSNOI) in 2021 due to higher rent collections and favorable year over yearcomparisons

• Most retail and lodging REITs should restore dividends at some level in 2021

• Expect a wide dispersion between the “Haves” and “Have Not” REITs

• Investors need to look to 2022 for a return to more normal fundamentals, marking the beginning of a new realestate cycle

• Tougher to make generalizations about real estate as a whole given divergence between property types

10

Page 11: REIT Strategy Review

• Portfolio constructed based on relative projected outperformance while being cognizant of riskparameters

• New names enter the portfolio from a list of over 85 covered companies

• Companies added to coverage list based on idea generation from portfolio managers and externalresearch after conducting the extensive proprietary due diligence process

• Portfolio managers make changes based on strict adherence to buy/sell triggers

• Turnover rates are relatively low at 25%

Process Summary

11

Page 12: REIT Strategy Review

• Proprietary financial model• Investment thesis• Presentation to the PMs

PMs approve analyst proposal or assign due diligence

Idea Generation Outputs of Research

Fundamental Research

ImplementationOversight• Weekly REIT team meetings• Monthly review of parameters• Quarterly formal risk

committee meetings• Bloomberg factor risk models

• SEC Filings• Third party / Wall Street

research• Property tours• Meetings with management

Macro-and-microeconomicdata

• Conversations with localbrokers

• Enters coverage universe withapproval of buy/sell prices

• PMs add when cash is generatedfrom a sell or incoming dividends

• Informed by risk parameters

Investment Approach

12

Page 13: REIT Strategy Review

Growth DriversMaturity ladder

Debt/EBITDA

Refinancing

Composition of debt

Earnings (FFO/AFFO)

Net Asset Value

Premium/Discount matrix

Balance Sheet Management Management Projected Target Price

Same store NOI Development

Redevelopment

Net portfolio growth

G&A efficiency

Capital Allocation

Corporate governance

Proprietary Target Price Methodology

13

Page 14: REIT Strategy Review

REIT have performed well historically if economy is expanding

Less new construction

Great locations can be repurposed

Rising Interest Rates

Declining Economic Growth

Obsolescence

RISK MITIGATION

Market Risk Management

14

Page 15: REIT Strategy Review

Max 30% to one property type

Max 30% to one geographic region

Max 15% to one position

Proprietary premium / discount and required return based on development, balance sheet, and management

Stated ranges for risk: Core (40-70%), Value-Add (20-50%), and Opportunistic (0-25%)

Property Type Risk

Geographic Risk

Concentration Risk

Capital Allocation Risk

RISK MITIGATION

Portfolio Risk Management

15

Page 16: REIT Strategy Review

*This information is presented as a supplement to the fully compliant GIPS®as listed in the PerformanceDisclosure

As of December 31, 2020

REIT GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION by NCREIF Region Composite Portfolio

SECTOR DIVERSIFICATION*

Portfolio Risk Management

16

Page 17: REIT Strategy Review

Companies with high leverage, unproven track records, and high growth, both internal andexternal

Strategy Definition RangeCore Companies with superior balance sheets, estab- 40-70%

lished track records, and moderate growth

Value-Add Companies with moderate leverage, establishedtrack records, and high growth, both internal andexternal

20-50%

Opportunistic 0-25%

Chilton REIT Portfolio

# of Holdings by Strategy

Core

Opportunistic 558

RMZ Chilton REIT Portfolio32 15

Total 138 27

Value-Add 748

As of December 31,2020Strategy Diversification

RMZ

17

Page 18: REIT Strategy Review

REITs - Key Takeaways for 2021 and Beyond• COVID expected to have a long lasting negative impact on many core property sectors, but

rent collection is improving

• REIT sectors are vastly different and are now demonstrating a classic ‘K’ shaped recoverybetween the ‘haves’ and the ‘have nots’

• Access to cheap debt and equity is a major positive to earnings growth for years to come

• After a quiet 2020, acquisition volumes by REITs should also help growth in earnings

• New construction has dropped substantially, setting the stage for a supply/demandimbalance when demand recovers

• Elevated dividend yield vs 10yr Treasury yield provides protection should interest rates rise

• If Congress eliminates 1031 exchanges, REITs will benefit from better choice of propertiesfor acquisition

18

Page 19: REIT Strategy Review

Appendix

19

Page 20: REIT Strategy Review

•Bruce G. Garrison, CFA, Managing Director | Portfolio Manager | EXPERIENCE: 48 YEARSMr. Garrison is the senior portfolio manager for the firm's REIT strategy. Prior to joining Chilton Capital Management in 2011 he served as a Director in the Investments Group at SalientPartners. Mr. Garrison began his career in 1972 with Morgan Guaranty Trust Co. His career experience also includes tenure as Managing Director for Kidder Peabody & Co., and PaineWebber (now UBS), where he participated in over $8 billion in financings (primarily equity) involving REITs. In 1993 and 1994, Mr. Garrison was voted Institutional Investor All American forREIT Research, first and second, respectively, and won the Realty Stock Review All-Star Analyst Award in 1992, 1993, and 1994. Mr. Garrison has a BBA and MBA from the University ofTexas at Austin. He is a CFA charterholder, a member of the CFA Institute, and the CFA Society of Houston and a member and former governor of the National Association of Real EstateInvestment Trusts (NAREIT). Mr. Garrison serves on the firm’s Investment Committee.

•Matthew R. Werner, CFA, Managing Director | Portfolio Manager | EXPERIENCE: 14 YEARSMr. Werner is a managing director and portfolio manager for the firm's REIT strategy. Prior to joining Chilton Capital Management in 2011, he served as Associate in the Investments Groupat Salient Partners where he performed due diligence on real estate private equity and hedge funds.Mr. Werner has a BS (Honors) from Boston College, Carroll School of Management. He is a CFA charterholder, a member of the CFA Institute and the CFA Society of Houston, and amember of the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (NAREIT).

REIT Investment Team

20

Page 21: REIT Strategy Review

•Michael Stavar, CPA, CFP, Vice President - Marketing, Consultant & Institutional Sales | EXPERIENCE: 38 Y EARSMr. Stavar joined Chilton Capital Management in April 2010 to head marketing and business development with corporate plan sponsors, institutional consultants and financialintermediaries. He began his career in public accounting in 1976 with Deloitte Haskins and Sells, and was later associated with Peat, Marwick & Mitchell. He then joined BASFCorporation and in 1983 started managing its $1.5 billion pension portfolio and $1.0 billion defined contribution plan. In 1993 he was recruited by Mellon Bank to serve as ChiefInvestment Officer for their $40 billion securities lending business. In 1997 he worked for Allegheny Technologies Incorporated and managed its $3.7 billion US and UK pension plans.After several years on the plan sponsor side, he moved in 2000 to the buy side of the investment business becoming a partner and portfolio manager for Gulf InvestmentManagement, a $2.6 billion investment firm. The firm was later acquired by OppenheimerFunds, Inc., one of the largest investment firms in the country, where he continued for thenext seven years as portfolio manager and head of marketing for institutional and consultant relationships. Mr. Stavar is a graduate of Fairleigh Dickinson University and holds bothBS and MBA degrees. He is a Certified Public Accountant (CPA), member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants and a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ (CFP®). Mr.Stavar is also a member of the National Football League Players Association Financial Advisor Registration Program.

• Chris St. Paul, Chief Compliance Officer | EXPERIENCE: 35 YEARSMr. St. Paul is the lead executive responsible for day to day administration and coordination for the firm’s operating segments: Research/Portfolio Management, Sales/ClientService/Marketing. Before joining Chilton Capital Management in 2011, his professional career in investments began with the Trust Investment Department of the First National Bankof Commerce in New Orleans, LA in 1983. In 1987, he joined The First Boston Corporation in Dallas, TX in Institutional Equity Sales. He was promoted to Branch Manager of thesouthwest Region in 1994. In 2002, he was promoted to Managing Director and in 2005, his territory expanded to overseeing the Atlanta Institutional Equity business. Mr. St. Paul hasspent his 30 year professional career dedicated to investments. He also participates in the portfolio management process for the Growth and Income Strategy, and is a member of themanagement and investment policy committees. Mr. St. Paul is a graduate of Louisiana State University and holds a B.S. in Finance.

• Ramon G. Reyes, Director of Trading | EXPERIENCE: 21 YEARSMr. Reyes joined the Chilton Capital Management trading team as an Assistant Trader in 2014. He has been in the investment management industry since 2000 through prioraffiliations with Van Kampen Funds and Invesco Inc. Mr. Reyes has a BBA in Finance from The University of Houston.

• Kurt Cooperrider, Director of Operations | EXPERIENCE: 10 YEARSMr. Cooperrider joined Chilton Capital Management in August 2013 after attaining several years of operational experience working for an IRA custodian. As Portfolio Administrator,Mr. Cooperrider works with new and existing clients to establish and maintain their investment accounts. Mr. Cooperrider received his BA in Business Management from WittenbergUniversity in 2010.

REIT Support Team

21