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RENEWABLE ENERGYRENEWABLE ENERGY AS A SECURITY TACTIC: AS A SECURITY TACTIC:
AN EMERGENCY MANAGER’S AN EMERGENCY MANAGER’S PERSPECTIVEPERSPECTIVE
WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS
WORKSHOPWORKSHOPJUNE 22, 2005JUNE 22, 2005
IT IS NOT “THE DAY AFTER IT IS NOT “THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW,” BUT . . . . . .TOMORROW,” BUT . . . . . .
• $60 billion in damage from climate-$60 billion in damage from climate-related disastersrelated disasters
• Europe’s summer heat wave cost $10 Europe’s summer heat wave cost $10 billionbillion
• Flooding in China, $ 8 billionFlooding in China, $ 8 billion• Tornadoes in the Midwest US, $ 3 billionTornadoes in the Midwest US, $ 3 billion• Losing about 100,000 lives per year and Losing about 100,000 lives per year and
about $100 billion a year from disastersabout $100 billion a year from disasters
WEATHER IN 2004WEATHER IN 2004
• Record 10 typhoons in JapanRecord 10 typhoons in Japan
• First hurricane ever in South AmericaFirst hurricane ever in South America
• Insurance costs topped $40 billionInsurance costs topped $40 billion
• Fourth warmest year since worldwide Fourth warmest year since worldwide records beganrecords began
• First time for four hurricanes hitting First time for four hurricanes hitting one stateone state
DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE REPORTREPORT
• "An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its "An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Implications for United States National Security," by Peter Schwartz and Doug Security," by Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall:Randall:
• Global warming could lead to slowing of the Global warming could lead to slowing of the ocean's thermohaline conveyor, leading to:ocean's thermohaline conveyor, leading to:
• Harsher winter weather conditions Harsher winter weather conditions • Reduced soil moisture Reduced soil moisture • More intense windsMore intense winds• Diminished world food productionDiminished world food production
DISASTER PREPAREDNESS: DISASTER PREPAREDNESS: A MUSTA MUST
• ““With inadequate preparation, the result could be With inadequate preparation, the result could be a significant drop in the human carrying capacity a significant drop in the human carrying capacity of the Earth's environment,” according to the of the Earth's environment,” according to the DOD Report.DOD Report.
• By 2007 violent storms could make large parts of By 2007 violent storms could make large parts of the Netherlands uninhabitable and lead to a the Netherlands uninhabitable and lead to a breach in the aqueduct system in Californiabreach in the aqueduct system in California
• Europe and the US could become virtual Europe and the US could become virtual fortresses with millions of migrants from rising fortresses with millions of migrants from rising sea levels or drought sea levels or drought
• Catastrophic shortages of potable water and Catastrophic shortages of potable water and energy could lead to widespread war by 2020.energy could lead to widespread war by 2020.
PREDICTIONS SHOWPREDICTIONS SHOWDISASTER MITIGATION: A MUSTDISASTER MITIGATION: A MUST• More droughtsMore droughts• More floodsMore floods• Ice cap in the Arctic melted 4,800 cubic miles of Ice cap in the Arctic melted 4,800 cubic miles of
water, 1965-1995 (Lakes Superior, Erie, Ontario, water, 1965-1995 (Lakes Superior, Erie, Ontario, and Huron)and Huron)
• Going to extremes – paradoxes Going to extremes – paradoxes • Rising ocean and atmospheric temperaturesRising ocean and atmospheric temperatures• Retreating ice caps and glaciersRetreating ice caps and glaciers• Disappearing lakes in SiberiaDisappearing lakes in Siberia• Rising sea levels Rising sea levels • Changing ecosystemsChanging ecosystems• Sustainable development Sustainable development
““CLIMATE CHANGE, CLEAN CLIMATE CHANGE, CLEAN ENERGY, AND SUSTAINABLE ENERGY, AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT” DOCUMENTDEVELOPMENT” DOCUMENT
• Rising temperaturesRising temperatures
• Carbon dioxide emissionsCarbon dioxide emissions
• Heat trapping gas emissionsHeat trapping gas emissions
• Need for environmental standardsNeed for environmental standards
• World Bank funded power projectsWorld Bank funded power projects
• G8 Meeting in Scotland in July, 2005G8 Meeting in Scotland in July, 2005
• UK Prime Minister Tony Blair Chairs and UK Prime Minister Tony Blair Chairs and SupportsSupports
G8 MEMBERSG8 MEMBERS
• USUS
• UKUK
• FRANCEFRANCE
• GERMANYGERMANY
• ITALYITALY
• JAPANJAPAN
• RUSSIARUSSIA
• CANADACANADA
HUMAN INDUCED HUMAN INDUCED DISASTERSDISASTERS
• IMF estimates the economic costs of IMF estimates the economic costs of WTC attack reduced US GDP by 0.75 WTC attack reduced US GDP by 0.75 percent or $ 75 billion in 2002percent or $ 75 billion in 2002
• Insurance losses for that event range Insurance losses for that event range from $ 30-60 billionfrom $ 30-60 billion
• Even Ford Motor Company lost $ 30 Even Ford Motor Company lost $ 30 million through supply chain million through supply chain disruptions when the border was disruptions when the border was closedclosed
PRIVATE SECTOR/ECONOMIC PRIVATE SECTOR/ECONOMIC IMPACTIMPACT
• 80% of nation’s assets owned by private 80% of nation’s assets owned by private sectorsector
• 43% of businesses suffering disaster never 43% of businesses suffering disaster never reopenreopen
• Of those that do reopen, only 29% are still Of those that do reopen, only 29% are still operating in two yearsoperating in two years
• 93% of companies that lose IT for more 93% of companies that lose IT for more than nine days - file for bankruptcy in one than nine days - file for bankruptcy in one year; 50 percent, immediatelyyear; 50 percent, immediately
• 69% of businesses hit by terrorist attacks 69% of businesses hit by terrorist attacks never reopennever reopen
HAZARDOUS MATERIALSHAZARDOUS MATERIALS
• Recent hazardous material accidents Recent hazardous material accidents raise concernsraise concerns
• Approximately 800,000 shipments of Approximately 800,000 shipments of such substances travel daily throughout such substances travel daily throughout the United States bythe United States by
1.1. groundground2.2. rail rail 3.3. air air 4.4. waterwater5.5. pipelinepipeline
+ Morbidity and Mortality + Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, CDC, January Weekly Report, CDC, January 28, 2005.+28, 2005.+• "Although nearly all of these materials "Although nearly all of these materials
safely reach their destinations, many are safely reach their destinations, many are explosive, flammable, toxic, and corrosive explosive, flammable, toxic, and corrosive and can be extremely dangerous when and can be extremely dangerous when improperly released." improperly released."
• Move "over, through, and under areas Move "over, through, and under areas that are densely populated or populated that are densely populated or populated by schools, hospitals, or nursing homes, by schools, hospitals, or nursing homes, where the consequences of a release where the consequences of a release could cause severe injury, death, could cause severe injury, death, environmental damage, and economic environmental damage, and economic loss." loss."
RECOMMENDATIONSRECOMMENDATIONS
• Route away from densely populated areasRoute away from densely populated areas• Use HazMat Emergency Events Surveillance data Use HazMat Emergency Events Surveillance data
and other databases to determine where most and other databases to determine where most releases occurreleases occur
• Revise emergency response plans to include a Revise emergency response plans to include a community-based public education campaign community-based public education campaign detailingdetailing
1.1. proper evacuationproper evacuation2.2. shelter-in-placeshelter-in-place3.3. decontamination procedures decontamination procedures • Employ public warning systems, public shelters, Employ public warning systems, public shelters,
and practice drills. and practice drills.
RECOMMENDATIONS RECOMMENDATIONS CONTINUEDCONTINUED
• Ensure HazMat handlers receive continuous Ensure HazMat handlers receive continuous job safety training and have appropriate job safety training and have appropriate personal protective equipmentpersonal protective equipment
• Ensure emergency medical service and Ensure emergency medical service and hospital emergency department personnel hospital emergency department personnel have the guidance to plan for and respond to have the guidance to plan for and respond to HazMat incidents involving human exposure. HazMat incidents involving human exposure.
• Emphasize the importance of preventive Emphasize the importance of preventive maintenance for equipment and vehicles maintenance for equipment and vehicles used in HazMat transport used in HazMat transport
HAZ MAT GOOD NEWSHAZ MAT GOOD NEWS
• Implementation of these Implementation of these recommendationsrecommendations
to reduce morbidity and mortality to reduce morbidity and mortality from transit-associated HazMat from transit-associated HazMat releases can be accomplished by: releases can be accomplished by:
• GovernmentGovernment• Private organizations Private organizations • First respondersFirst responders
BLACKOUTSBLACKOUTS
• Almost two years after a Almost two years after a blackout darkened the blackout darkened the northeastern United Statesnortheastern United States
• Created an international disasterCreated an international disaster• The country's power grid is still The country's power grid is still
as susceptible to outagesas susceptible to outages• The industry managed to get The industry managed to get
back online rapidlyback online rapidly
RESULTSRESULTS
• $12 billion plus economic cost$12 billion plus economic cost• Air conditioning went outAir conditioning went out• People were trapped in subways and People were trapped in subways and
elevators elevators • Planes were grounded and traffic lights went Planes were grounded and traffic lights went
darkdark• Cell phones didn't rechargeCell phones didn't recharge• New York, Cleveland, Toronto and Detroit lost New York, Cleveland, Toronto and Detroit lost
most of their power most of their power • 50 million people50 million people• 18.9 million lost work hours in Canada alone18.9 million lost work hours in Canada alone
VULNERABILITY VULNERABILITY RECOGNIZEDRECOGNIZED
• The power grid is everywhereThe power grid is everywhere• Vulnerable to attacks, leaving millions Vulnerable to attacks, leaving millions
without power without power • Every power line, every transformer, every Every power line, every transformer, every
transfer station cannot be defendedtransfer station cannot be defended• The grid is so largeThe grid is so large• Attacks that would disrupt power, leaving Attacks that would disrupt power, leaving
it off for more than a few days, are difficult it off for more than a few days, are difficult to envision to envision
PROBLEMPROBLEM
• Employee mistakes Employee mistakes • Age of the country's gridAge of the country's grid• Weak maintenance Weak maintenance • Faulty monitoring equipmentFaulty monitoring equipment• Breakdown in communicationsBreakdown in communications• "(The country has) been spending less and "(The country has) been spending less and
less money on our energy infrastructure less money on our energy infrastructure every year since 1990." every year since 1990."
• + Stephen Hein, vice president of corporate + Stephen Hein, vice president of corporate communications for Trion Energy Systems+communications for Trion Energy Systems+
CONTINUING CONCERNSCONTINUING CONCERNS
• Unprotected transmission linesUnprotected transmission lines• “ “Knot holes" - areas where large amounts of Knot holes" - areas where large amounts of
power move through small systemspower move through small systems• Public rotates between near panic, high concern, Public rotates between near panic, high concern,
and then comfortable complacencyand then comfortable complacency• 440 Civil Nuclear Reactors in 30 countries, cover 440 Civil Nuclear Reactors in 30 countries, cover
66% of world’s population, produce 16% of world 66% of world’s population, produce 16% of world electricityelectricity
• Extreme temperatures bring requirements for Extreme temperatures bring requirements for more electricity and powermore electricity and power
• Cyber attacks and vulnerabilitiesCyber attacks and vulnerabilities
RECOMMENDATIONSRECOMMENDATIONS
• The North American Electric Regulatory The North American Electric Regulatory Council (NERC)Council (NERC)
• Self-regulatory organization monitoring Self-regulatory organization monitoring utility industryutility industry
• System-wide audits after blackoutSystem-wide audits after blackout• 17 recommendations17 recommendations• NERC Rules are voluntaryNERC Rules are voluntary• Major conclusion: cause was Major conclusion: cause was
preventablepreventable
QUOTESQUOTES
• "It shows us we have tied together so "It shows us we have tied together so many systems to build a high quality many systems to build a high quality life, and that creates its own life, and that creates its own vulnerabilities." vulnerabilities."
• James Gilmore, the former Virginia James Gilmore, the former Virginia governor, chairman of a terrorism governor, chairman of a terrorism panel formed by Congress. panel formed by Congress.
ANOTHER QUOTEANOTHER QUOTE
• New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, former New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, former energy secretary energy secretary
• "In my view we're the world's greatest superpower "In my view we're the world's greatest superpower but we have a Third World electricity grid." but we have a Third World electricity grid."
• "We have antiquated transmission lines. We have "We have antiquated transmission lines. We have an overloaded system that has not had any new an overloaded system that has not had any new investments and we don't have mandatory investments and we don't have mandatory reliability standards on utilities, which caused this reliability standards on utilities, which caused this problem." problem."
• ““National standards are needed to prevent utilities National standards are needed to prevent utilities from having more power than they can absorb. It's from having more power than they can absorb. It's as simple as that." as simple as that."
TRENDSTRENDS
• WE ARE USING TWICE AS MUCH ENERGY WE ARE USING TWICE AS MUCH ENERGY AS 20 YEARS AGOAS 20 YEARS AGO
• POLLUTION IS A GROWING CONCERNPOLLUTION IS A GROWING CONCERN• BUSINESS COMMUNITY HAS TO LEADBUSINESS COMMUNITY HAS TO LEAD• SOME STATES PROVIDE INCENTIVESSOME STATES PROVIDE INCENTIVES• FEMA RADIOLOGICAL EMERGENCY FEMA RADIOLOGICAL EMERGENCY
PREPAREDNESS PROGRAM (REP)PREPAREDNESS PROGRAM (REP)• TECHNOLOGY IS AVAILABLE AND READYTECHNOLOGY IS AVAILABLE AND READY• RENEWABLE ENERGYRENEWABLE ENERGY
FUTURE ISSUES FUTURE ISSUES
• Standards enforceable by the Federal Energy Standards enforceable by the Federal Energy Regulatory CommissionRegulatory Commission
• Intertwined security vulnerabilities of Canada Intertwined security vulnerabilities of Canada and USand US
• US and Canada have working:US and Canada have working:• 1. secure the common 5,500-mile border1. secure the common 5,500-mile border• 2. protect vital power, a pipelines, railways, 2. protect vital power, a pipelines, railways,
roads and bridgesroads and bridges• 3. defense is incomplete3. defense is incomplete• China is expected to increase its nuclear power China is expected to increase its nuclear power
production by 450% in next 15 yearsproduction by 450% in next 15 years
OIL AND GASOIL AND GAS
• National Contingency Plan names EPA the National Contingency Plan names EPA the lead federal response agency for oil spills in lead federal response agency for oil spills in inland watersinland waters
• U.S. Coast Guard is the lead response agency U.S. Coast Guard is the lead response agency for spills in coastal waters and deepwater for spills in coastal waters and deepwater portsports
• Oil spills peril is not such an imminent threat Oil spills peril is not such an imminent threat for the public, but the affects on the for the public, but the affects on the environment are enormous which impacts the environment are enormous which impacts the public over time public over time
US COAST GUARD ROLEUS COAST GUARD ROLE
• Responsible for implementing the Oil Pollution ActResponsible for implementing the Oil Pollution Act• Responsible for vessels, deepwater ports, and the Responsible for vessels, deepwater ports, and the
marine transfer components of transportation-marine transfer components of transportation-related onshore facilities which include some inland related onshore facilities which include some inland areasareas
• Provides on-scene coordinator Provides on-scene coordinator • Designates zones manages the National Response Designates zones manages the National Response
Center Center • Maintains the National Strike Force, used for major Maintains the National Strike Force, used for major
marine pollution incidentsmarine pollution incidents• Acts as the fund manager for the Oil Pollution Acts as the fund manager for the Oil Pollution
Liability Trust Fund Liability Trust Fund
•I HATE TO MENTION IT, I HATE TO MENTION IT, BUTBUT• OVERPOPULATIONOVERPOPULATION• ANOTHER 58 MILLION IN US BY 2025ANOTHER 58 MILLION IN US BY 2025• WORLDWIDE, WE GROW ANOTHER NYC WORLDWIDE, WE GROW ANOTHER NYC
EVERY 6 WEEKSEVERY 6 WEEKS• 1 BILLION EVERY 12 YEARS WORLDWIDE, 1 BILLION EVERY 12 YEARS WORLDWIDE,
UP TO 9 BILLION BY 2050UP TO 9 BILLION BY 2050• 30,000 CHILDREN DIE EVERY DAY IN 30,000 CHILDREN DIE EVERY DAY IN
DEVELOPING WORLDDEVELOPING WORLD• UNIMAGINABLE PRESSURES ON ENERGY UNIMAGINABLE PRESSURES ON ENERGY
SYSTEMSSYSTEMS
THE WAY FORWARDTHE WAY FORWARD
• Need redundancyNeed redundancy
• Back up Back up
• ReplicableReplicable
• Need vital appropriations for renewable Need vital appropriations for renewable energy programs -- we have lots of work to energy programs -- we have lots of work to do because reductions of $24 million do because reductions of $24 million proposedproposed
• ENERGY PLANNING ON A GLOBAL BASISENERGY PLANNING ON A GLOBAL BASIS
• My Personal Favorite is Solar Energy!!!My Personal Favorite is Solar Energy!!!
NEW TECHNOLOGIESNEW TECHNOLOGIES
• WTC attacks showed that only a few cell WTC attacks showed that only a few cell phone services provided the only form of phone services provided the only form of communicationscommunications
• Safety – all plants linked worldwideSafety – all plants linked worldwide
• Arms Proliferation – security of environment Arms Proliferation – security of environment and protection from terrorism compatibleand protection from terrorism compatible
• Cost cuttingCost cutting
• Waste monitoringWaste monitoring
RENEWABLE ENERGYRENEWABLE ENERGY TO TO
THE RESCUETHE RESCUE• BiomassBiomass -- -- ethanolethanol, bio-diesel, biomass power, industrial , bio-diesel, biomass power, industrial
process energy process energy • GeothermalGeothermal -- use the heat of the earth for direct-use -- use the heat of the earth for direct-use
applications, heat pumps, and electrical power productionapplications, heat pumps, and electrical power production• HydrogenHydrogen -- -- produced from hydrocarbons, water and, when produced from hydrocarbons, water and, when
burned as a fuel, or converted to electricity, it joins with oxygen burned as a fuel, or converted to electricity, it joins with oxygen to again form water to again form water
• HydropowerHydropower -- -- hydroelectric power facilities can generate hydroelectric power facilities can generate enough power to supply 28 million households with electricityenough power to supply 28 million households with electricity
• OceanOcean -- -- energy of ocean waves, tides, as well as thermal energy of ocean waves, tides, as well as thermal energyenergy
• SolarSolar -- -- use the sun's energy and light to provide heat, light, use the sun's energy and light to provide heat, light, hot water, electricity, cooling, for homes, businesses, and hot water, electricity, cooling, for homes, businesses, and industry. industry.
• WindWind -- -- uses energy in wind for generating electricity, charging uses energy in wind for generating electricity, charging batteries, pumping water, grinding grainbatteries, pumping water, grinding grain
ENERGY EFFICIENCYENERGY EFFICIENCY
• Buildings -- solar energy and geothermal Buildings -- solar energy and geothermal heat pumpsheat pumps
• Industry -- uses more than one-third of all the Industry -- uses more than one-third of all the energy used in US energy used in US
• Power -- Technologies maximize efficient Power -- Technologies maximize efficient generation, transmission, and storage of generation, transmission, and storage of energy energy
• Transportation -- 65% of U.S. oil consumption Transportation -- 65% of U.S. oil consumption and predominant source of air pollution and predominant source of air pollution
WINSTON CHURCHILL SAID IT WINSTON CHURCHILL SAID IT BESTBEST
• ““THIS IS NOT THE END.THIS IS NOT THE END.
• ““THIS IS NOT EVEN THE BEGINNING THIS IS NOT EVEN THE BEGINNING OF THE END.OF THE END.
• ““THIS IS SIMPLY THE END OF THE THIS IS SIMPLY THE END OF THE BEGINNING.”BEGINNING.”
IN CLOSINGIN CLOSING
• WE CAN DO BETTERWE CAN DO BETTER
• WE MUST DO BETTERWE MUST DO BETTER
• EVERYBODY HAS TO ACTEVERYBODY HAS TO ACT
• THANKS TO COG FOR LEADING THE THANKS TO COG FOR LEADING THE WAY!WAY!
KAY C. GOSS, CEM®KAY C. GOSS, CEM®
• VICE PRESIDENT FOR HOMELAND VICE PRESIDENT FOR HOMELAND SECURITYSECURITY
• ELECTRONIC DATA SYSTEMS ELECTRONIC DATA SYSTEMS CORPORATION (EDS)CORPORATION (EDS)
• FORMER ASSOCIATE FEMA DIRECTORFORMER ASSOCIATE FEMA DIRECTOR
• [email protected]@EDS.COM
• 703-736-4052703-736-4052
