Renewables and OM Cost Reduction - Industrial Internet ??2017-09-21Wind Case Study – Large ... AS-IS MW/Hr Cost TO-BE MW/Hr Cost AS-IS Yearly Cost ... ItsnowpossibletoplanforupNtowercomponentrepairsinsteadoffullgearboxreplacementwithamul=Nyear

  • View
    212

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Transcript

  • Renewables and O&M Cost Reduction

    Ed Wagner Co-chair, IIC, Energy Committee VP, Sentient Science

  • Introduce Yourself

    Name Company Business challenge to solve Whats your Industrial Internet strategy for O&M?

    2

  • DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

    DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

    NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION

    Our 10 Year Research Pedigree Invited a New way to Measure and Test Rotating Equipment Computationally

  • Scalability and Timing Commercialization Substitutability Material Input Requirements Intermittency Energy Density Water The Law of Receding Horizons Energy Return on Investment

    The Challenge for Renewables

    Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015 4

  • The Challenge for Wind O&M

    How do I reduce my exposure for GBX failures?

    How to I balance spending for both immediate GBX availability and long term fleet value?

    How do I get the best pricing on GBX replacement inventory?

    How do I make sure I wont break the bank spending above OPEX ceilings?

    How do I engage financial managers when budgeting uses historic O&M data instead of future projection?

    5

  • Intelligent Machines Advanced Analytics People at Work

    Applying a New Generation of Prognostics Across the Industrial Internet

    Physical Layer

    Applica=ons Layer

    People/Process Layer

    6

  • Wind Case Study Large Vertically- Integrated Provider

    Offers the lowest energy pricing through ver=cal oriented efficiencies

    600+ wind turbines, one major wind-turbine brand plus assorted others (acquisi=ons), star=ng to see increasing number of gearbox failures

    Majority of fleet is off-warranty CBM mix in place Strong management pressure (and bonus) on maintaining or

    reducing ANNUAL OPEX spend

    7

  • Whats the needed planning horizon?

    Diagnostics and prognostics Planned preventative

    maintenance (PPM) costs versus predictive health maintenance (PHM)

    PPM vs. PHM

    Past

    DIAGONSTICS

    Future

    PROGNOSTICS

    8

  • Crack Nuclea,on and Propaga,on

    9

  • Time

    Con

    diti

    on

    First visible detection (vibration, borescope, heat, etc.) Detection

    Life Extension Decision Support

    Failure/Crack Progression

    Non-Visible Non-Visible Non-Visible Visible

    How Does Prognostics Work on Gearboxes? Predict Earlier & More Accurately

    Not Visible Not Visible Not Visible Visible

    10

  • As Is

    Quantify Impact of: Lubrication change, auto-lubrication systems, partial de-rating, etc.

    Prognostics allows you to quantify what-if scenarios to extend RUL.

    To Be

    Years Un)l Gearbox Failure Years Un)l Gearbox Failure

    Percen

    tage of Fleet Failure

    Percen

    tage of Fleet Failure

    Bearing Performance Linked to GBX Failure Rates

    11

  • How we make a Multi-Physics Prognostics Model

    1) DigitalClone System Loads, Requirements & System Life

    2) DigitalClone Material Characterize & Create Microstructure Model

    3) DigitalClone Component Fric=on, Wear & Lubrica=on Surface Treatments

    5) DigitalClone Component Predict Component Failure Mode/Failure Life

    4) DigitalClone Component Simulate Stress in Microstructure to Predict Crack Ini=a=on & Propaga=on

    6) DigitalClone Live Output Model: Predict-Acquire-Confirm-Control

  • UI Example

    13

    List of assets worst to best

  • UI Example

    14

    List of sub components worst to best

  • $2,000,000.00

    $7,000,000.00

    $12,000,000.00

    $17,000,000.00

    $22,000,000.00

    $27,000,000.00

    $32,000,000.00

    $37,000,000.00

    $42,000,000.00

    $47,000,000.00

    $52,000,000.00

    $-

    $5.00

    $10.00

    $15.00

    $20.00

    $25.00

    $30.00

    6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

    AS-IS MW/Hr Cost TO-BE MW/Hr Cost AS-IS Yearly Cost

    Variable cost for gearbox replacement

    In most cases unplanned and unbudgeted cost for gearbox and main bearings

    As high as $27 per MWhr in some cases

    Industry Average 1.5mw WTG 500 Units

    MW/Hr Cost

    15

    Post Warrantee Failures

  • Industry Average 1.5mw WTG 500 Units

    $2,000,000.00

    $7,000,000.00

    $12,000,000.00

    $17,000,000.00

    $22,000,000.00

    $27,000,000.00

    $32,000,000.00

    $37,000,000.00

    $42,000,000.00

    $47,000,000.00

    $52,000,000.00

    $-

    $5.00

    $10.00

    $15.00

    $20.00

    $25.00

    $30.00

    6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

    AS-IS MW/Hr Cost TO-BE MW/Hr Cost AS-IS Yearly Cost TO-BE Yearly Cost

    MW/Hr Cost

    Through life extension, failures rates can be managed and reduced

    Uptower component replacement

    Up/de-rate Bearing replacements Oil additives

    Provide a minimum 25% improvement each year to the failure rates

    5 years, $19M savings, 500% ROI

    16

  • O&M Optimization (cut O&M 5% - Revenue increase 4%) Using Sentient DigitalClone models Inspections Budgets monthly to 10 year Optimized duty cycle Oil & bearing management Maintenance schedules

    Inventory and Supply Chain Optimization (Build data at lower cost and time) Big data analytics Maximo SAP

    Fleet Process Optimization: ($10K reduction per asset) CBM-PHM Industrial Internet

    investment Cap-ex reduction Sensor reduction Decision data at lowest cost People optimization Asset acquisition support M&A support Refinancing upport

    O&M Aftermarket Life Extension & Super Components Decisions (O&M reductions of 10% - revenue increase 6%) OEM/Supplier SaaS Test & Compare: Upgrades Repair, reman, replace Contract negotiation

    1

    2

    3

    4

    Applying Prognostics for Inventory and Supply Chain Across the Industrial Internet

    Services to operate and Services to deliver

    SMART GRID

  • ASTRO Platform Example

  • Control your product's lifecycle through ROI trade-off studies monitoring, simula,on, and

    op,miza,on.

    Confirm prognos=c accuracy through advanced processing, alerts, and repor=ng tools.

    Acquire opera=onal data, using your CBM system or Sen=ent Sciences advanced sensor suite, to tailor service for each individual asset.

    Predict the performance and health of your GBX assets,

    confidently and quickly, both today and into the future.

    How to Serialize the Prognostic Model for Distributed Assets

  • Ac)on Cost

    1 Develop a PHM-powered list of GBX and components to replace over the next 3 years, where and when.

    $150,000

    2 De-rate 40 units and do oil changes to extend their life and get them to a planned up-tower replacement schedule.

    $1,000,000

    3 Borescope those 40 machines to confirm prognos=cs. $100,000

    4 Do 20 up-tower component replacements. $1,000,000

    5 Re-rate the upgraded gearboxes. $200,000

    6 Do 8 gearbox replacements with carburized bearings. $2,000,000

    7 Develop upgraded energy plan to op=mize energy output against extending fleet life beyond 20 years.

    $25,000

    8 Cover headcount and opera=on. $500,000

    9 Go to island for vaca=on. $25,000

    ALL IN $5,000,000

    Case Study: I have $5 Million to spend on Gearbox Maintenance this year. How should I spend it?

    20

  • Ac)on Cost

    1 Develop a PHM-powered list of GBX and components to replace over the next 3 years, where and when.

    $150,000

    2 De-rate 40 units and do oil changes to extend their life and get them to a planned up-tower replacement schedule.

    $1,000,000

    3 Borescope those 40 machines to confirm prognos=cs. $100,000

    4 Do 20 up-tower component replacements. $1,000,000

    5 Re-rate the upgraded gearboxes. $200,000

    6 Do 8 gearbox replacements with carburized bearings. $2,000,000

    7 Develop upgraded energy plan to op=mize energy output against extending fleet life beyond 20 years.

    $25,000

    8 Cover headcount and opera=on. $500,000

    9 Go to island for vaca=on. $25,000

    ALL IN $5,000,000

    Case Study: I have $5 Million to spend on Gearbox Maintenance this year. How should I spend it?

    21

  • Go to an Island for Vacation

    22

  • 1. Its now possible to plan for up-tower component repairs instead of full gearbox replacement with a mul=-year plan of where, when, and how many components should be replaced. Drama)c reduc)on in the cost of full GBX replacements

    2. Its now possible to plan gearbox replacement, inventory, and supply chain planning with a 10-year horizon. BeHer pricing and inventory availability on supplier contracts

    3. Its now possible to maintain a fleet using prognos=cs (going forward planning) instead of PPM and diagnos=cs only input. BeHer, more reliable mul)-year budget planning

    4. Prognos=cs can help extend the RUL of components and gearboxes, provide beler input planning, and reduce your O&M budget. BeHer balance between short term repair spend and long term asset value

    What Can We Learn Here?

  • Outcomes

    1. Customer 1: Failure rate reduced by +50% Customer budgete

Recommended

View more >