Upload
geoffrey-gaines
View
217
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Reporting on Rates of Biodiversity Loss
Walter ReidDirector, Millennium Ecosystem AssessmentGuest Scientist, WorldFish Center, MalaysiaProject Manager, UNEP, Nairobi
Outline
Reporting Basics
What to Report? Indicators viewed through lens of the audience
How to Report?
Guidelines for Effective Reporting Mechanisms
Possible Mechanisms and Frameworks
Effective assessments and reporting
Credible Must be of the high scientific credibility
Legitimate What we report and the process by which it is reported
must be seen by stakeholders to be politically legitimate Typically this means the stakeholders must have some
level of ‘ownership’ of the process
Useful Must meet policy and decision-maker needs
Feedback from Assessment and Reporting to Research and Monitoring
Assessment
Monitoring Research
Stakeholders Governments Private Sector Civil Society
Reporting
Action
Outline
Reporting Basics
What to Report? Indicators viewed through the lens of the audience
How to Report?
Guidelines for Effective Reporting Mechanisms
Possible Mechanisms and Frameworks
What to Report?
Many possible indicators Choice must be based on both
Science Needs and concerns of users
Users at different scales from local to global will have different needs and concerns
Intrinsic & Non-Use Values
Ecosystem Service & Use Values
Intrinsic
Service
Global Perspective
Intrinsic
Service
Local Perspective
Biodiversity
Most relevant global concerns may not be most relevant local concerns
Ecosystem
Service & Use Values
Ecosystems
Species Genes
Biodiversity goal (Reduce rate of loss of biodiversity)
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
Reduce hunger
Reduce poverty
Combat disease
Access to clean water
Restore fisheries
What we report should emphasize relevance to multiple WSSD Goals, not just biodiversity
Report indicators that are:
Directly derived from the goal or central components of the goal
Grounded in science Viewed as legitimate by decision-makers Relevant to decision-makers at global,
national, and local scales
Outline
Reporting Basics
What to Report? Indicators viewed through lens of audience
How to Report?
Guidelines for Effective Reporting Mechanisms
Possible Mechanisms and Frameworks
Overarching Goal: Reduce rate of loss of biodiversity by 2010
Report aggregated ‘index’? Pro: provides focus for users, ‘catchy’ Con: adds significant subjective element
into weightings; weakens scientific credibility
Report by components of biodiversity? (e.g., species, ecosystems, genes) Pro: strong scientific foundation Con: adds complexity to interpretation
But no different from, say, economic reporting on multiple components: GNP, unemployment, trade balance, etc
What to report for species component of goal?
Species extinction? Problems:
Inertia and lag time
• 1000 to 1861, N. Hemisphere, proxy data; • 1861 to 2000 Global, Instrumental;• 2000 to 2100, SRES projections
Climate Change ‘Inertia’ Halting climate change or even reducing rate of climate change by 2010 is unrealistic
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
100 87.5 75 62.5 50 37.5 25 12.5 0
Percent Habitat Remaining
Per
cen
t S
pec
ies
Rem
ain
ing
Z=0.35
Z=0.15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
100 87.5 75 62.5 50 37.5 25 12.5 0
Percent Habitat Remaining
Lose 2/3 of habitat
Species Extinction “Inertia”
Species committed to extinction
Habitat Loss commits species to extinctionbut the extinction will take place over decades or
centuries
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
100 87.5 75 62.5 50 37.5 25 12.5 0Time
Per
cen
t o
f S
pec
ies
Even if habitat loss were halted today extinction would continue for decades
Extinction rates would eventually decline with time
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
100 87.5 75 62.5 50 37.5 25 12.5 0Time
Per
cen
t o
f S
pec
ies
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
100 87.5 75 62.5 50 37.5 25 12.5 0
Percent Habitat Remaining
Lose 66% of habitat
Lose 95 % of habitat
Per
cen
t o
f S
pec
ies
If habitat loss continues over the next 10 years, the rate of species extinction will increase
100 87.5 75 62.5 50 37.5 25 12.5 0Time (or Decreasing Habitat Area)
Rat
e o
f S
pec
ies
Lo
ss(E
xtin
ctio
ns
per
yea
r)
Current Species Extinction Rate
Expected rate in 10 yrs
Achieving an absolute reduction in the rate of extinction is unlikely under plausible scenarios A reduction in the rate of increase may be more realistic
Reduction in rate of increase
Reduction in rate – CBD Target
What to report for species component of goal?
Species extinction? Problems:
Inertia and lag time Grain size of extinction too large to
realistically monitor on annual (decadal?) time scales
Known extinctions may be poor proxy for actual extinctions. (But are good measure of loss of species many people care about.)
What to report for species component of goal?
Species extinction? Population sizes?
Waterbird population trends
Wetlands International
What to report for species component of goal?
Species extinction? Population sizes?
Problem of representative sample
Indirect measures (proxies) Habitat loss Rate of alien invasive species
introductions
High relevance to users
High relevance to users
What to report for ecosystem component of goal?
Reduce rate of loss of ecosystems by 2010? Problem: what, if anything, does this mean?
Better to set goal in light of CBD objectives (conserve and sustainably use…): Reduce loss and fragmentation of unmodified
habitats (conservation goal)
Reduce loss of ecosystem services from modified and unmodified habitats (sustainable use goal)
Ecosystem Services: The benefits people obtain from ecosystems
RegulatingBenefits obtained from regulation of
ecosystem processes
• climate regulation• disease regulation
• flood regulation
• detoxification
ProvisioningGoods produced or
provided by ecosystems
• food • fresh water• fuel wood
• fiber• biochemicals
• genetic resources
CulturalNon-material
benefits obtained from ecosystems
• spiritual • recreational
• aesthetic• inspirational• educational • communal• symbolic
SupportingServices necessary for production of other ecosystem services.
• Soil formation• Nutrient cycling
• Primary production
What to report for ecosystem component of goal?
Reduce rate of loss of ecosystems by 2010? Problem: what, if anything, does this mean?
Better to set goal in light of CBD objectives (conserve and sustainably use…): Reduce loss and fragmentation of unmodified
habitats (conservation goal)
Reduce loss of ecosystem services from modified and unmodified habitats (sustainable use goal)
High relevance to users
High relevance to users, particularly at national and local scales
What to report for genetic component of goal?
Loss of genetic diversity in production systems (crops, livestock, forestry)
Indirect measures
E.g., spread of elite varieties
High relevance to users
Indicator Direct (2pt) Proxy (1pt)
Relevance to Users
Score Measur-able?
Species
Extinction X X 3 No
Population trends X X 3 ?
Habitat loss X ? 1.5 X
Invasive Sp X ? 1.5 ?
Ecosystems
Loss and Fragmentation of Habitat X X 3 X
Ecosystem Services X X 3 X
Genes
Ag genetic diversity X X 3 ?
Spread of HYVs X ? 1.5 X
What to report?(Through the lens of the audience)
Indicator Direct (2pt) Proxy (1pt)
Relevance to Users
Score Measur-able?
Species
Extinction X X 3 No
Population trends X X 3 ?
Habitat loss X ? 1.5 X
Invasive Sp X ? 1.5 ?
Ecosystems
Loss and Fragmentation of Habitat X X 3 X
Ecosystem Services X X 3 X
Genes
Ag genetic diversity X X 3 ?
Spread of HYVs X ? 1.5 X
What to report?(Through the lens of the audience)
Outline
Reporting Basics
What to Report? Indicators viewed through lens of the audience
How to Report?
Guidelines for Effective Reporting Mechanisms
Possible Mechanisms and Frameworks
How to Report? Basic Considerations:
Large number of existing national reporting obligations
Mechanism must add more value than it adds burden at national scale Mechanism should be designed to build
capacity needed to address national and local priorities
Mechanism must balance political legitimacy and scientific credibility
Essential to report uncertainty surrounding estimates
What scale for reporting?
Global Yes, without question
National If we don’t, the goal won’t be taken seriously by
countries or by the ‘global’ audience Ecosystem/System/Biome
Would add significant value in interpreting the results
Reporting Assets: National
International obligations Convention Reports (CBD, CCD, Ramsar,
CMS, CITES, etc.) UNEP-WCMC project on harmonization of reporting
Reports on ecosystem services to FAO (food, fiber), WHO (disease incidence) and other agencies
Reports to other intergovernmental forums (e.g, CSD)
National and regional mechanisms State of Environment Reports; Sustainable
Development reports; National Human Development Reports, State of Ecosystems, Regional Environmental Assessments, etc.
Reporting Assets: International
Reporting Mechanisms Clearinghouse Mechanisms Assessment Mechanisms Bilateral Assessment Mechanisms
Reporting Assets: International
Reporting mechanisms Global Environmental Outlook (UNEP) Global Biodiversity Outlook (CBD) UNEP-WCMC Biodiversity reports World Resources Report (UNEP, UNDP, World
Bank, WRI) and EarthTrends (WRI) Human Development Report (UNDP) World Development Report (World Bank) IUCN Red Data Books IUCN Species Survival Commission Reports Living Planet Index (WWF, WCMC)
Reporting Assets: International
Clearinghouse Mechanisms Global Biodiversity Information Facility CBD Clearing House Mechanism IISD Compendium of Sustainable Development
Indicator initiatives
Reporting Assets: International
Assessment Mechanisms IPCC Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Mountain Assessment Land Degradation Assessment World Water Assessment Global International Waters Assessment Global Marine Assessment FAO Plant Genetic Resource Assessment
Bilateral development assistance assessment mechanisms
Reporting Assets: NGO and Academia
Biodiversity surveys and databases Extensive international datasets of CI, TNC,
WWF, Birdlife International, Wetlands International, etc.
Reporting Assets: Monitoring
Monitoring and Research networks gathering long-term biodiversity information, including GTOS National programs (e.g., LTER in the US) ILTER sites; Smithsonian/UNESCO-MAB Biosphere
Biodiversity Programme (forest biodiversity) CI long-term research sites Proposed “Global Life Observatory”
Audience Must consider audiences at multiple scales Must consider both the formal audience and
the informal audience Public outreach is essential
Audience
Key intergovernmental audiences: CBD WSSD follow-up, in particular CSD Biodiversity and Ecosystem related conventions
(CCD, Ramsar, CMS, CITES, WHC, etc.) UN Agency Governing Councils: UNEP, UNDP,
FAO, WHO, UNESCO At national and sub-national scales:
Relevant ministries (more than just Envt.) Other stakeholders from private sector and civil
society
Frequency of reporting
1-2 years? Many of the datasets available are too ‘noisy’ to
be of value over 1-2 year time frames
10 years? Miss enormous opportunity to stimulate and
guide action if report only at 10 year intervals
Most realistic time frame: 3-4 years?
Outline
Reporting Basics
What to Report? Indicators viewed through lens of the audience
How to Report?
Guidelines for Effective Reporting Mechanisms
Possible Mechanisms and Frameworks
Guidelines for designing an effective reporting mechanism
1. Engage Users. Intended users must be engaged in the selection of what to report and must view the reporting mechanism to be ‘legitimate’ Insufficient to simply report numbers through existing
mechanisms; a single intergovernmental forum could provide the
entire institutional setting given multiple audiences and stakeholders and the
opportunity for the reporting to influence actions in relation to multiple WSSD goals, consider a multi-institutional governance arrangement or establish an advisory committee of other relevant intergovernmental institutions (other conventions, UN agencies, CSD etc.)
Guidelines for designing an effective reporting mechanism
2. Reporting Responsibility Subsidiarity Report from lowest scale where there is value added for
information or capacity-building International comparative advantage:
Remote sensing for monitoring habitat change and fragmentation.
Governments could agree to provide resources for a complete assessment of habitat change in 2005 and 2010 against 2000 baseline.
FAO PGR assessments should be the basis for reporting on genetic diversity changes
National comparative advantage Status and trends in ecosystem services Population and extinction trends
Guidelines for designing an effective reporting mechanism
3. Clearly state uncertainty surrounding measurements
4. Don’t report only what can be measured If a critical policy-relevant indicator is needed and
data are unavailable (but could be available) make that an explicit element of the report
5. Ensure scientific credibility Scientific ‘validation’ of the information is critical The first reporting exercises will be more like
assessments than standard reporting processes An independent review mechanism should be in
place to review the final report and statistics
Outline
Reporting Basics
What to Report? Indicators viewed through lens of the audience
How to Report?
Guidelines for Effective Reporting Mechanisms
Possible Mechanisms and Frameworks
Possible mechanisms and frameworks
GBO process GEO process Structure modeled on Millennium
Ecosystem Assessment
Multi-convention oversight
CMS CCD CBD Ramsar FCCC
Millennium Ecosystem AssessmentMillennium Ecosystem Assessment
UNESCO UNDP UNEP FAO WHO
CGIAR ICSU IUCN GEF UNF
Possible mechanisms and frameworks
GBO process GEO process Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
structure New mechanism