Atomk: Energy, Vol. 8,~, No. I, 2000

ARTICLES

REQUIREMENTS FOR 2 IST CENTRY

NUCLEAR P O W E R PLANTS*

P. N. Alekseev, A. Yu. Gagarinskii, N. N. Ponomarev-Stepnoi, and V. A. Sidorenko

UDC 621.311.2:621.039.001.2

The development o f energy production in the 21st century will be subject to more uniform per capita and

r~ional consumption. Among the competing sources of energy, the positive qualities of nuclear power -

unlimited fuel resources, high energy intensiveness, and ecological compatibility with the possibility o f the

wastes being highly concentrated - predetermine the development of las~e-scale nuclear power. The

conditions for the development ~ such nuclear power are its ecological effectiveness and safe~ (of the

reactors and the fuel cycle with the production o f wastes), nuclear fuel breeding with adequate characteristics,

and guarantees ~" nonproliferation of fissioning materials.

Continui~ in the development of nuclear power dictates the requirements for reactor systems in the near and

distant funtre. The acceptabh, level of safe~ is closely related to the scales ~" mwh, ar power and the

applications o f nuclear energy sources. However. progress in decreasing the potential danger of reactors and

th'creasing the cost ~" protective systems is unavoidable. In choosing new directions, it is important to

demonstrate the new qualities in the solution o f the probh'ms facing nuclear power in the future.

An adequate diversity ~'reactor technologies couM e~ist in the fiaure. The requirements that will face nuclear

power plants in the future stages ~" development and the r stages of this development are discussed.

In the 21 st century the power-generation industry will evolve toward more unitbrm energy consumption per capita as

well as more uniform consumption over different regions in the world. It is predicted that by the middle of the 21st century

power production will at least double and energy consumption will be approximately 5.1020 J/yr. It is estimated that about 1/4

of the energy resources will be consumed lor electricity and about 3/4 will be consumed lbr heat, transport, and technology. Fos-

sil fuel (coal, oil, gas) and atomic and solar energy will be the main competing primary energy resources.

21st Century - The Stage of Large-Scale Nuclear Power. The dynamics of the development and relative participa-

tion of each energy technology in the balance of world-wide energy production are determined primarily by the fuel resources,

economic indicators, and the effect on the environment.

The known reserves of fossil fuel are sufficient tbr several hundreds of years. However, since coal is the most abundant

fossil-fuel resource, as the oil and gas reserves decrease, consumers of primary enemy resources will have to be restructured so

their coal fraction is appreciable, and this will require new technological solutions.

Estimates of amount of nuclear fuel present in the earth's crust and in ocean water show that the production of nucle-

ar power will not encounter any resource limitations for the foreseeable future, even wih conservative assumptions about the

extraction of the fuel. This is also true of the fundamental possibility of using solar energy. The solar energy flux is a thousand

times greater than the annual world energy consumption, and the natural synthesis of biomass is many times greater.

* The journal variant of this report at the 10th annual conference of the Nuclear Society "From the first nuclear power plant in

the world to power engineering of the twenty-first century" (June 28 - July 2, 1999, Obninsk).

Russian Science Center "'Kurchatov Institute." Translated from Atomnaya Energiya, Vol. 88, No. 1, pp. 3-14, January,

2000. Original article submitted April 21, 1999.

1063-4258/(X)/8801-0001 $25.00 �9 Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers 1

The environment adapts, with consequences of one kind or another, to the effects of technology. A fundamental limit

on the growth of energy production is the heat limit, which appears when the Earth's heat balance breaks down. This limit will

be reached after the 21st century.

Global wanning due to the greenhouse effect has been actively studied for the last few decades. An assessment of the

possibility that nature will adapt to the growth of energy production shows that the environment is not handling the ecological

load due to the combustion of fossil fuel because of the emissions of combustion products. The technology which has been

developed and implemented for removing sulfur and nitrogen oxides from combustion products has decreased the environmen-

tal danger of these harmful emissions. However, it is doubtful that an acceptable technology can be developed to solve the prob-

lem of cartxm dioxide emissions. This factor is one of the fundamental restrictions on the growth of energy production based on

the combustion of fossil fuel.

Nuclear sources are characterized by the compact form of the wastes and by the technically substantiated possibility of

concentrating and localizing the radioactive products produced by the burning of nuclear fuel. The total mass of the radioactive

wastes is a hundred thousand times less than the mass of the wastes produced by burning fossil fuel. This is a delinite advan-

tage of atomic energy. The potential ecological danger of using atomic energy is due to the production of radioactive wastes.

The operation of reactors changes the balance of radioactive substances. Two opposing processes occur at the same time: the

annihilation of radioactive nuclei which possess natural radioactivity and the production of new radioactive nuclei. In terms of

the number of decays, the radioactivity that is produced does not exceed the activity of the initial elements. However, for sever-

al thousands of years the radioactivity of the irradiated fuel will be higher, in terms of the number of decays per unit time, than

that of the initial nuclear raw material because the fission products are short-lived isotopes. This leads to the requirement that

the nuclear fuel cycle be ecologically acceptable: The radioactive wastes must be localized at all stages for the period of time

indicated. In assessing whether or not this problem can be solved in principle, it is important to note that because of their small

volume radioactive wastes can be localized in a compact form, and the time scale required for such localization falls within the

range which mankind has demonstrated that it can handle.

Thus, under normal operation and with guaranteed localization of radioactive wastes, nuclear power has definite eco-

logical advantages. Only the heat effect can limit its influence on the environment.

Information about the contribution of various energy resources to worldwide energy production pemlits following the

dynamics of the utlization of the primary enemy resources: wood, coal, oil, gas, and atomic energy. The fraction of each com-

peting energy technology can be described by a law due to the effect of a large number of factors, including resources, energy

carriers, the effect on the environment, the efficiency of power production and utilization, risk, convenience, economic argu-

ments (price, cost, efficiency of investments), and many others. One reason why several forms of an energy technology coexist

in substantial fractions is that exclusivity of one form over others is inadmissable tbr society.

A fundamental tenet of these relations is the conclusion that the adoption of a new power-production technology is a

slow process. This is due not so much to technical problems as to the substantial capital investments required and the investment

levels that are acceptable on the basis of risk considerations. More than 100 years are required lbr any particular technology to

reach a leading position in power production. Natural gas will be in the leading position in the first half of the 21st century, but

as cheap deposits of natural gas are used up, the utilization of natural gas will decrease and another large energy resource will

have to be used for power production.

Atomic energy possesses indusputable positive qualities. These are: unlimited heat resources, high energy intensive-

ness, the wastes from power production can be highly concentrated, and ecological compatibility. The existence of a tested

nuclear technology, proven economic competitiveness, and technical safety make atomic enemy a favorite for providing a large

fraction of energy production by the time the next change in the energy carrier must be made. Thus, the 21 st century is the cen-

tury when la~e-scale nuclear power will arise. The atomic energy fraction in power production cannot be increased quickly

because of the lag time in the development of production. For this reason, several forms of technology that will make a large

contribution to power production will coexist for a long period of time.

In forecasting a large relative contribution from atomic energy in power production, it is necessary to formulate the

attributes of large-scale power production.

The atomic energy fraction in enemy production will exceed 10%, which is a several-fold increase from the current 3%

level. Since electricity production is the best mastered and technically most convenient area of utilization of atomic energy,

growth will occur primarily on account of the atomic energy fraction in electricity production and will reach several tens of per-

cent, as compared with the current 15%.

In addition to an increase in the utilization of atomic enemy for electricity production, other areas of application of

atomic energy will need to be mastered, such as domestic and industrial heat supply, technological processes, and transporta-

tion. The adoption of atomic energy in transportation will be in the form of nuclear power plants for ships and, possibly, in the

tbrm of an artificial fuel that can be produced using atomic energy in technological processes. Nuclear power plants will be

placed not only on land, but also in the oceans and later in space also.

The largest growth of energy production in the next 100 years will occur in the developing countries, so that the num-

ber of countries utilizing atomic enemy will necessarily increase. These are primarily countries in Asia, South America, and

Africa. The adoption of atomic energy in countries and regions where there are no substantial power grids will require medi-

um- and low-capacity nuclear power plants. Therefore it will be necessary to develop high- and medium-capacity nuclear power

plants as parts of unified power grids, as well as autonomous low-capacity power plants.

The distinctive features of large-scale nuclear power, such as an increase in the volume and areas of application of

atomic energy and an increase in the number of countries utilizing nuclear power plants, characterize a qualitative change and

make it necessary to determine more accurately the conditions and requirements for a system and its individual components.

The radioactive wastes produced as a result of nuclear power production must be safely confined tbr the period of time

during which their radioactivity exceeds the initial radioactivity of the raw materials. Safe confinement of radioactivity consists

of the systematic implementation of multilevel protection, which includes a system of technological barriers that limit the

spreading of radionuclides and measures for preventing accidental breaching of the barriers and for decreasing the consequences

of accidents.

Large-scale nuclear power requires a demonstration of a new and higher level of safety, which society will have to

understand. This requirement refers to all components of the fuel cycle: nuclear power plants, reactors, spent nuclear fuel, stor-

age, shipment, reprocessing, and burial.

Modem nuclear power plants demonstrate an acceptable level of safety, based on operating experience and on the

implementation of additional measures which increase safety, taking into account the lessons learned in accidents. The safety of

all other components of the nuclear fuel cycle, primarily, reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel and handling of radioactive wastes,

is less well substantiated, and this gives rise to reprimand from the public. In order to attain an equivalent safety level for these

components, serious efforts must be made in fundamental and applied investigations as well as in development and technolog-

ical implementation.

A central goal for future nuclear power is to decrease the initial danger of an atomic object (primarily a nuclear

power plant). This is accomplished by making the optimal choice of plant construction and by the existence of the required

system of properties and characteristics. In the system of safety means and methods, maximum utilization and development

of internal-protection properties will become paramount.

Decreasing the initial danger of an object is the basis for decreasing the cost of protection for the entire plant and for

eliminating the possibility of accidents with substantial radiation consequences (serious accidents).

Internal protection properties include groups of technological properties, solutions, and so on, including the following:

- maximum possible elimination and decrease of dangerous factors - decrease of the store of radioactivity: decrease of

the pressure, temperature, and chemical activity (or an appropriate choice) of coolant, choice of operating conditions tbr the

appropriate materials, the ma t in s in the operating conditons, and other factors:

- negative feedbacks, when processes deviate from the norm, that neutralize accident processes;

- use of natural and self-regulatable processes, which preclude the possibility of accidental breakdowns, damage, and

so on or which decrease their consequences:

- maximum posssible time constant of processes, which would increase the effectiveness of methods used to over-

come the dangerous development of events and which creates additional reserves of time for effective operator intervention in

the process.

The means lbr controlling accidents are improved similarly (they become more effective and reliable and less

expensive):

- maximum application of passive technological means, i.e., means which do not require energy sources or auxiliary

(initiating) mechanical systems:

- maximum use of natural processes, sell-initiating means of direct action, and others (directly with respect to a param-

eter characterizing the operating regime or state of the process, and so on).

A fundamental safety component is a required safety attitude in governmental and technical control components as well

as in the production sphere. The increasing number of countries utilizing atomic energy, especially developing countries, makes

this an urgent problem.

One of the main arguments for nuclear power being competitive in the 21st century is the unlimited supplies of fuel

resources. This is due to the possibility of producing a new nuclear fuel: plutonium and 233U. In the best case, currently oper-

ating reactors utilize about l% of the uranium produced. Under these conditions economically acceptable stores of uranium

could supply fuel for nuclear power production at current levels for no more than 100 years. The fuel base tor large-scale nucle-

ar power production must be based on the production and repeated utilization of fissioning nuclear materials. A closed nuclear

fuel cycle is a necessary condition ['or large-scale nuclear power production in the 21st century.

The attributes of large-scale nuclear power, such as an increase in the volume, an increase in applications, and an

increase in the number of countries utilizing nuclear power, could affect the proliferation risk of fissioning materials. A great

de',.d of work on increasing nonproliferation guarantees needs to be done. Organizational and technical measures and techno-

logical barriers for unauthorized proliferation of fissioning materials that protect nuclear materials at the level of risk corre-

sponding their accessibility from natural sources, need to be developed and adopted.

The requirement for decreasing the risk of proliferation will influence technological decisions in all components of the

fuel cycle of large-scale nuclear power so as to decrease the accumulation of nuclear materials suitable for weapons and to

employ structural schemes that would prevent nuclear materials from being diverted from the cycle.

Nonproliferation of nuclear materials and technology will require constant attention, making use of scientific and tech-

nical progress in the field of information systems and systems for disseminating knowledge and also increasing the level of

knowledge concerning the technology for obtaining dangerous nuclear materials. Therefore, work on decreasing the risk of pro-

liferation must include the following:

- improvement of the technolgy, including means for the first and second lines of protection, monitoring of nuclear

materials, and remote sensing;

- development and adoption of new forms of technology, which would decrease the volume of nuclear materials in cir-

culation, and internal protection of nuclear materials.

Economic indicators will play a decisive role in the choice of any particular source of energy in a specific situation.

The components of the production costs of electricity should include the cost of not only the direct generation of electricity but

also compensation for environmental effects. It is important to take into account the effect on man and the environment under

normal operating conditions and accidents with an acceptable risk indicator for the entire fuel cycle. Among the different types

of power sources, only nuclear power is capable of locking in the costs of compensation tor environmental effects. This is due

to the high energy intensive of nuclear fuel and, correspondingly, the compactness of the wastes. Fossil fuel sources of energy

are incapable of locking in the costs of carbon dioxide emissions. An additional component, the so-called social cost, which

takes into account the effect of each technology on man and the environment, is higher lor fossil fuels, especially coal, even

neglecting the effect of carbon dioxide.

On account of the large capital component and the long payback period, energy p~oduction is a natural monopoly which

makes it difficult for market mechanisms to operate in this sphere. For this reason, in addition to economic arguments, togeth-

er with economic a~uments, political will and public attitude are necessary for choosing one or another energy technology.

Nuclear Power System. In the national economy, the nuclear power industry employs raw materials mined from the

earth and produces a useful product - energy and isotopes, and in the process it returns wastes into the environment. To perform

these functions the nuclear system must possess components such as mining and processing of the fuel raw material, fabrication

of the fuel, construction of reactors, reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel, and burial of the wastes. Large-scale nuclear power pro-

duction requires substantial development of components such as reactors for expanded breeding of nuclear fuel, radiochemical

production tbr reprocessing spent fuel, reutilization of nuclear materials, and burial of the wastes. In the nuclear power industry

that is now under development, many components of this structure are a continuation of an existing system, including scientif-

ic, technical, industrial, and raw-material base. All this creates conditions for entering the large-scale nuclear power production

of the 21st century.

Reactors for Nuclear Power in the 21st Century. Various types of reactors will be present in large-scale nuclear

power production. One possible variant is a classification of reactors on the basis of their functionality: energy production,

expanded breeding of fuel, production of isotopes, and bumup of actinides.

The primary purpose of reactors is the production of energy. The solution of this problem will require thermal and last

reactors built for all functional purposes.

In addition to improving the designs of currently operating reactors, the great diversity of indicators and conditions of

large-scale nuclear power makes it necessary to search for and develop a new generation of reactors. In choosing directions for

new developments, preference must be given to suggestions which contribute a new quality to the solution of the problems of

lhture nuclear power. No single design can provide the best solution to all problems facing nuclear power. Tens of different types

of reactors, each of which can best solve a particular problem of large-scale power production, will operate in the future. At the

same time the main requirements - economy, safety, and guarantee of nonproliferation - must be satisfied strictly in each design

and in the fuel cycle.

The trend in the development of power reactors will be toward their continued use/'or electricity production. High- and

medium-capacity reactors, which have proven themselves well at preceding stages, will continue to be built. In addition, reac-

tor capacity will be further increased and low-power reactors will be further developed. The scales of Russian enemy systems

in the European part of the country and the requirement that they be competitive with fossil-fuel central heat and electricity-gen-

erating plants are leading to larger power-generating units, and the orientation toward the world market makes it necessary to

have for domestic and foreign applications a power-generating unit that is equal to western units with respect to capacity and

other indicators.

Today's contribution of light-water reactors and their future contribution, as forecasted taking into account the eastern

European and Asian-Pacific Ocean components of the development of nuclear power, in the world nuclear stock inevitably (as

dictated by economics) places them in the world nuclear power industry of the next century.

In the area of power-generating capacities, breeder reactors in their characteristic high-power range will play a large role.

The need to reduce environmental effects makes it necessary to increase the efficiency of electricity generation. This

requirement will make it necessary to develop liquid-metal-cooled reactors and high-temperature helium-cooled reactors.

The expansion of the sphere of applications of atomic energy (cogeneration of heat and electricity, sources of domes-

tic heat, industrial heat supply), which has objectively begun, makes it possible to forecast the development of atomic energy

into the new century. The adoption of atomic energy tbr industrial heat supply and especially lbr supplying energy for techno-

logical processes is stimulating the development of high-temperature reactors and, as the best designs, high-temperature helium

reactors. It is desirable to implement and assimilate enhanced-safety heat-supply plants as an alternative in the optimal solution

of the problem of supplying heat to large regions. The existence of regions which are difficult to access and which have a low

population density justifies the use of autonomous, low-power, nuclear sources/'or supplying heat and electricity. Nuclear cen-

tral heat and power-generating plants with reactors based on natural circulation with maximum use of passive means of protec-

tion and cooling best satisfy the requirements for autonomous sources of energy. It is proposed that autonomous low-power cen-

tral heat and power plants and enhanced-safety desalinization centers be developed on the basis of ship power plants which

require no maintenance. Propulsion nuclear power engineering provides the technical base for designs of such reactors.

Propulsion nuclear power engineering has demonstrated its possibilities in the economics of Russia. The construction

of nuclear reactors for use on ships for propulsion as well as the development of floating nuclear power plants will continue.

Floating nuclear power plants can be used tbr power production and t.or desalinization of water. In the distant future it will be

of interest to use nuclear submarine technology for extraction and shipment of oil and gas from the ocean floor. In the distant

future such systems could also be important for obtaining uranium from sea water.

The further assimilation of space, together with the development of large, long-time orbiting stations, technological sys-

tems for space, large communication and navigation systems, and expeditions to planets in the solar system will inevitably

require nuclear sources that produce electricity or thrust or both. In the not too distant future high-capacity nuclear sources could

be placed in space to supply energy to Earth.

Large-scale nuclear power cannot be built only on the basis of 235U. Makeup of the fissioning component with natural

uranium, which is constantly brought into the fuel cycle, will be insufficient for the operation of all reactors. Breeding of fis-

sioning materials is one of the basic attributes of future nuclear power. This function will be performed by breeder reactors. The

basic function of these reactors is expanded breeding of fuel, required tbr supplying fuel to the entire nuclear power industry.

Thus, in future power engineering breeder reactors producing nuclear fuel will coexist with reactors that consume fuel. Their

quantitative ratio will be determined by the neutron balance of the entire structure of nuclear power and the level of fuel breed-

ing in the reactors. The search for optimal solutions and the development of breeder reactors are large components of work on

the new-generation reactors. The investigations and developments at the preceding stage show that this problem can be solved

in the lh'st half of the 21st century without moving far away from technology which has already been mastered. Together with

improvement of fast sodium reactors, there is a possibility of developing fast reactors with heavy-metal coolant using experi-

ence gained in the development of propulsion reactors and helium-cooled reactors and in the development of high-temperature

helium-cooled thermal reactors and water-vapor cooled fast reactors as well as experience with boiling-water reactors. Fuel

based on uranium and plutonium nitrides can be used in these breeder reactors to improve the fuel breeding properties. It must

still be proved that these ideas, which provide alternatives to the concept of a sodium-breeder reactor which has been worked

out, can be realized with characteristics which can be ascertained on the basis of the current level of knowledge.

Breeder reactors in a high-capacity power-generating unit will be used for producing the base electrical load. Inevitably,

they will be closely tied to the technological fuel-reprocessing system. These considerations, as well as the requirements for non-

proliferation of fissioning materials, tie them to a limited number of countries with large power grids.

Together with power production, reactors for producing radioactive isotopi~s for medical, technical, and energy appli-

cations will expand. Medical purposes include diagnostics as well as treatment. Technical applications include primarily diag-

nostics, but they also include the application of radioactive isotopes for autonomous enemy sources.

Isotopes are produced in special reactors. As radiochemical reprocessing of fuel evolves and is adopted, the possibili-

ty of extracting an increasingly larger number of different useful radioactive isotopes, and in larger quantities, will increase.

Thus, two lines of production of radioactive isotopes can be predicted: development of specialized reactors and separation of

useful radioactive isotopes during fuel reprocessing.

The amount of actinides produced in an equilibrium cycle depends on the types of thermal and fast reactors and their

relative numbers. A positive neutron balance in a system of reactors for nuclear power can provide for, if necessary, not only

expanded breeding of nuclear fuel but also burnup of the most dangerous radionuclides. A special thermal reactor will be devel-

oped for these purposes. Another possibility is a reactor operating in a subcritical mode in combination with an external source

of neutrons. The external neutron source will require some of the electricity generated in the system. The ratio of the number of

different types of reactors depends on how well their characteristics have been worked out, the areas of application, the degree

of development of the nuclear power industry, and handling of radioactive wastes. For steady growth of large-scale nuclear

power, an approximate estimate of the capacity ratio of thermal/last/thermal reactors for bumup of actinides is 0.6/0.3/0.1.

The Fuel Cycle. The strategy of a closed cycle decreases the need for mining the initial fuel and justifies bringing

reserves of the more expensive natural raw material into nuclear power production. A closed fuel cycle, which includes repro-

cessing of spent nuclear fuel, extraction, and reuse of nuclear materials, is a necessary condition for large-scale nuclear power

of the 21st century.

In a steady regime of nuclear power development, the cost of all components of the fuel cycle from fuel production to

burial of wastes must be covered by the product produced. Reprocessing of spent fuel for breeder reactors, which produce nucle-

ar fuel, is a necessary condition tor large-scale power production. The question of spent nuclear fuel for different types of reac-

tors functioning in the nuclear power industry will be solved on the basis of a comparison of the cost of reprocessing spent fuel

and handling of wastes, the income from the utilization of nuclear materials extracted during processing, and the costs of buri-

al of the spent fuel. Some spent nuclear fuel, which will be economically inefficient to reprocess, will bypass the reprocessing

stage and will be buried. The present data are insufficient for answering this question accurately. The development of a tech-

nology for processing and burial could alter the current solution. For this reason, at the present time, temporary storage of spent

nuclear fuel is used in some countries. This decision assumes that repositories, which are intended for long-time storage during

which the behavior of the spent nuclear fuel can be monitored, will be developed and the decision as to reprocessing or burial

can be reconsidered at later stages. This approach is defined as controllable, reversible storage. For burial of spent nuclear fuel,

the requirement of nonproliferation of fissioning materials must be taken into account.

The handling of the radioactive wastes which are produced during the operation of reactors and the reprocessing of

spent nuclear fuel, the final goal being safe burial, is the main open problem of nuclear power. Existing technical solutions for

concentrating wastes and further transformation of the wastes into ceramic forms or glass could make possible burial of radioac-

tive wastes in stable geological structures, but substantial work must still be pertbrmed to prove stability with respect to exter-

nal actions and safety of the forms of the wastes which are proposed for long-term burial.

Decisions about the structure and components of the fuel cycle in industrially developed countries and especially in the

member countries of the nuclear club are made by these countries independently on the basis of primarily economic and polit-

ical considerations.

The development of nuclear power and the expansion of the number of countries utilizing nuclear reactors raise the

question of organizing in these countries work on the handling of spent nuclear fuel and radioactive wastes. It is obvious that,

just as in the case of conventional power production, work on the components of the fuel cycle will be divided between the coun-

tries. Two features of the nuclear fuel cycle - the radiological danger of the fuel-cycle technology and the risk of proliferation

of fissioning materials - will limit the adoption of the fuel-cycle technology.

The proliferation of the technology for reprocessing spent nuclear fuel increases the risk of proliferation of fissioning

nuclear materials. This must be taken into account when adding to the list of countries employing the fuel-reprocessing tech-

nology. Limited proliferation of reprocessing technology outside the industrially developed countries is also due to the com-

plexity and radiological danger of the technology. The reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel becomes economically efficient only

for large scales, which makes it necessary to consolidate the countries that are developing this technology. This raises the ques-

tion of the procedure and conditions for transferring spent nuclear fuel from one country to another for storage and reprocess-

ing. Here, handling of radioactive wastes and other nuclear materials obtained as a result of reprocessing is especially impor-

tant. Different variants can be implemented - the radioactive wastes can be buried in the country reprocessing the spent nucle-

ar fuel shipped to it or returned to the country operating nuclear power plants. The first method is, as a rule, rejected by the pub-

lic in the countries or region which have taken on fuel reprocessing. Moreover, legal problems must be solved. In the second

method, the country perfomling fuel reprocessing must guarantee the work which it has performed to prepare the radioactive

wastes for long-term storage or burial.

The production of enriched uranium, which is a unique technology, is at present developed only in the member countries

of the nuclear club. Will the world community preserve this limit in the tuture on the basis of nonproliferation considerations?

The initial period of the 21st century will be characterized by, together with the conventional operations in the fuel

cycle, the solution of the problem of using in reactors the excess materials obtained from nuclear weapons - highly enriched

uranium and plutonium. The potential of weapons plutonium for power production expands the tuel base of the nuclear power

industry. The utilization of weapons plutonium will lead to the assimilation of the mixed uranium-plutonium fuel technology,

and experience will be gained in solving ecological problems and in monitoring, accounting, and protection procedures required

h)r future nuclear power production. The plutonium freed from weapons will be burned in the form of a mixed uranium-pluto-

nium oxide fuel in domestic fast and thermal reactors which are currently operating and which are under construction. As

designs of promising thermal reactors (GT-MGR) and fast breeder reactors are implemented, it will be possible to incorporate

them in the utilization of excess weapons plutonium for power production. Mixed fuel fabricated from weapons plutonium can

be burned up using, on a commercial basis, power reactors abroad. The choice of specific solutions will be determined by the

economic conditions for implementing a program taking into account the strategy for the development of nuclear power.

Natural thorium resources, which are larger than the uranium resources, and the low cost of thorium create additional

possibilities for development of a nuclear power industry that is not limited by resource availability. The introduction of thori-

um into the fuel cycle will not only expand the fuel base, but it will also make it easier to solve the problem of burying radioac-

tive wastes. In the last few years, together with the advantages indicated above, the possibility of using thorium in currently oper-

ating reactors, or in reactors which are under development, in order to improve the situation concerning the nonproliferation of

fissioning materials is under study.

The unsolved problems of handling radioactive wastes and spent nuclear fuel are the reason tor the negative attitude

of the public toward the development of nuclear power. There is no doubt that these problems can be solved in principle, but

practical technical solutions are held back by inadequate investments and the difficulty of providing a practical proof of the

reliability of long-term burial of the wastes. The public recognition of the need for and the acceptibility of nuclear power will

occur only after the problems of the nuclear fuel cycle which are associated with the choice and substantiation of a technolo-

gy for handling radioactive wastes are solved. Together with the development of the conventional technology for isolating and

burying radioactive wastes, a search will be made for methods of including transuranium nuclides in the fuel cycle for trans-

mutation purposes.

Status of Nuclear Power and Near-Term Forecast. The initial stage of ~owth of nuclear capacity for power pro-

duction has demonstrated high rates of growth. The growth rates realized have exceeded the rates characteristic for convention-

al laws of development of power technology. This distinction is explained by the fact that the nuclear power industry has made

use of the military scientific-technological and industrial potential.

An increase in the scales of nuclear power production and an increase in the number of users has led to an unbalance

of existing and required scientific-technical and industrial potential. The experience and technology of the nuclear weapons corn-

plex is not adequate in all directions required for balanced development of a civilian nuclear power industry. This pertains to,

first and lbremost, the handling of radioactive wastes and operational safety. These were factors in the decrease in the compet-

itiveness of nuclear power as compared with fossil fuels, whose costs decreased, and they predetermined the slowdown in the

rates of development of nuclear power. Accidents at enterprises in the nuclear power industry contributed to the negative atti-

tude of the public toward nuclear power.

The 15-20 yr IAEA tbrecasts show stagnation of nuclear capacities in the industrially developed countries of Europe

and America. Under the conditions of incomplete perestroika of economics, there is a large uncertainty in the lorecast lbr the

development of nuclear power in Russia. Estimates of capacity growth in Russia, taking account of the decommissioning of

power-generating units whose service life in nuclear power plants has been exhausted and the construction of new-generation

reactors, range from a decrease to an increase in capacity up to 2010.

A rapid development of the nuclear power industry in Asian countries is predicted against this background. Together

with growth of nuclear capacities in Asian countries where nuclear power plants have already been built, the next stage will be

characterized by an increase in the number of countries utilizing atomic enemy: These are countries in Asia, the Near East,

Africa, and South America.

All this, together with stable development of nuclear power in the next few years in the industrially developed coun-

tries, will sharpen competition in the nuclear market. Russia, which in the past has spread its nuclear presence primarily by

means of a political argument, now must make substantial el]bits to produce a competitive power-generating unit for nuclear

power plants. This is one of the principal conditions tbr preserving and maintaining our nuclear potential. The determining indi-

cators will be safety, economic attractiveness, and reliability of the partner.

Thus, the present state of nuclear power is characterized by a wide range of forecasts of its development at the next

stage. In the distant future, nuclear power will very likely play a substantial role in supplying energy to mankind. The problem

tcxlay is to search lbr and to select and substantiate a path from the present state of uncertainty to large-scale nuclear power of

the distant future.

Paths for Development of Nuclear Power. The world community does not have a unique choice of a path toward

large-scale nuclear power. Each country chooses its policy independently, adapting to the economic, social, and lX~litical condi-

tions. An important factor is that political motivations play the dominant role in making decisions in most cases, though it is well

known that political positions change much more rapidly than the process of developing a power-generation technology. In some

industriaUy developed countries, it has been decided that work on nuclear power should be cut back, right up to shutting down

and decommissioning nuclear power plants. An example is the position of the current German government. Implementation of

these decisions will require large investments for decommissioning nuclear objects and tbr compensating power capacities. If

work on nuclear power is needed in the thture, the lost potential will need to be restored and the corresponding economic expen-

ditures will have to be made. The implementation of suggestions made by some Russian specialists, which are based on the neg-

ative previous experience with implemented designs of reactors and the fuel cycle and the rapid implementation of revolution-

ary designs of new reactors, could lead to the same economic consequences. This path, like the preceding one, actually reduces

to shutting down directions which have been adopted and making substantial economic investments for implementing new,

unproven directions. The desirable path is evolutionary improvement of proven implemented designs of the nuclear complex and

development of a new-generation nuclear complex taking into account the experience gained at preceding stages.

Continuity. An important element in the strategy for development of the nuclear power industry in the 21st century is

continuity. It is important to note the basic aspects of continuity:

- continuity of development and implementation: a new technological path must develop in parallel with an active exis-

tence of the preceding path, making use of the positive experience gained and development of new components which are absent

in the preceding path:

- systematic development of the general concept of safety of a nuclear technology, which is improved, on the basis of

preceding experience, and is implemented in certain technical decisions, increases the effectiveness of safety goals in accordance

with increasing requirements of nuclear power, which is ~owing in scale and in diversity of the technological applications:

- direct technological continuity: technical directions, which have accumulated enormous means as well as scientific

and technological potential and which have created an industrial base, must give the maximum payback and solve economic

problems for a long period of time.

Here an important aspect associated with the adoption of fundamentally new approaches, which substantially change

the construction or the structure of the systems in a nuclear plant, must be singled out. The principle of using tested solutions

presumes that a quite representative form of such a test is realized. Depending on the character and scale of the new technical

step, this could also be a representative scientific investigation or a bench test of a part or a service-life test under conditions of

the object or the degree of novelty could require the development and operation of a prototype setup (plant) in order to find hid-

den problems in the new solution and to substantiate a reliable transition to serial production. Finally, new technological solu-

tions in nuclear power which take into account the requirements of safety and reliability can be tested betbrehand only in the

international nuclear community.

Strategy for the Development of Nuclear Power in Russia. The general goal of the long-term strategy of develop-

ment of nuclear power in Russia, on the basis of predictions of the development of power production worldwide in the 21st cen-

tury, is to develop a large-scale nuclear power industry which participates in supplying energy for electricity, heat, industrial

technology, and transportation.

The strategy requires strict adherence to the requirements imposed on large-scale power production: economic com-

petitiveness, enhanced safety, decrease in the risk of proliferation of nuclear materials, and expanded breeding of fuel. To achieve

the goal stated above, the strategy provides for the development of a nuclear system based on the maximum use of the techno-

logical experience accumulated at preceding stages for development of a new generation of plants that best meet the require-

ments of the future nuclear power industry. The most important problems are:

- development of a closed fuel cycle with expanded breeding and reuse of plutonium and 233U:

- safe handling of radioactive wastes, including development of reversible storage sites, which can be monitored, for

spent nuclear fuel at the first stages:

- development of an effective breeder reactor, low-capacity nuclear power plants for remote regions, new types of reac-

tors for supplying heat, technology, portable plants, desalinization systems, operating in basic and maneuvering regimes.

Large-scale nuclear power production can develop only if the operating stock of nuclear plants functions safely and

eonomically and problems involving an increase in service life and removal from operation of units which have exhausted their

service life are solved.

In connection with the predicted increase in the number of countries aiming for nuclear power production, Russia must

become competitive in the nuclear marketplace, increasing the export potential of its nuclear complex for constant presence of

technology, equipment, nuclear materials lbr reactors and plants of a new generation with improved economic indicators and a

higher safety level in the worldwide market.

Basic Stages of the Strategy up to 2010:

- provide for opcration and development of an active stock of nuclear plants, increasing service life, and preparation

of decommissioning technology:

- development and assimilation of a new generation o1' units based on the technology developed:

- search for and development of alternative reactor systems based on thermal and last neutrons:

- preparation and use of weapons plutonium:

- development of components of a closed fuel cycle:

- development of a reversible repository, which can be monitored, for spent nuclear fuel:

- export of nuclear power plants, reactors, and fuel based on the technology which has been mastered.

Up to 2030:

- maintaining safe and economic operation of the active stock of nuclear plants, decommissioning of units which have

exhausted their service life:

- development of a stock of nuclear plants for different purposes based on the new reactor technology - development

and adoption of demonstration units, development of serial nuclear plants, and development of the leading units:

- adoption of closed-fuel-cycle components for large-scale nuclear power, including nonwater methods lbr reprocess-

ing spent fuel and burying wastes.

U p t o 2050:

- adoption of new-generation serially produced units:

- implementation of a closed fuel cycle, including burial of wastes.