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Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics. Perspectives and Trends for Renewable Fuels Transportation in Brazil. José Eduardo Holler Branco [email protected] 06/18/2007. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics. Outline: Main Aspects of Alcohol and Biodiesel Supply Chain - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
Perspectives and Trends for Perspectives and Trends for Renewable Fuels Transportation in Renewable Fuels Transportation in
BrazilBrazil
José Eduardo Holler BrancoJosé Eduardo Holler Branco
06/18/200706/18/2007
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
Outline:
Main Aspects of Alcohol and Biodiesel Supply Chain
Status of Renewable Fuels Brazilian Production
Research and Projects Related to Renewable Fuel Transportation
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
Brazil Energy MatrixBrazil Energy Matrix
Source: MME (2004)
Petroleum42%
Natural Gas8%
Coal7%
Nuclear2%
Biomass27%
Hydroeletricity14%
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
Petrodiesel50%
Gasoline27%
Biodiesel (B2)3%
Alcohol Anidro10%
Natural Gas3%
Alcohol Hydrated7%
Brazil Energy Matrix (Transportation Sector) – 2006Brazil Energy Matrix (Transportation Sector) – 2006
Source: MME apud BELTRÃO (2007)
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
Distributors
Petroleum Products
Alcohol
Final
Consumers
T.R.R.
DieselB2
AlcoholGasoline + Alcohol
75% 25%
T.R.R.
Refinery
PetrochemicalFuel Retailers
TR
Importers
Biodiesel Producer
Alcohol Distillery
Petrofuel and Biofuel Supply Chain in BrazilPetrofuel and Biofuel Supply Chain in Brazil
B100B100
B100
Sugarcane
CrushersGrains
Vegetable Oils
Alcohol
B2
B2
ADAPTED FROM BELTRÃO(2007)
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
BIODIESELBIODIESEL
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
ADAPTED FROM BELTRÃO (2007)
Authorized (21)
Waiting for Authorization (40) 5 12SP 2
RJ
2MG
2MA
1TO
4RS
1 2PR
2CE
1PA
3 12MT
2 2GO
BA2 1
2PI
1RO
1
1
Biodiesel PlantsBiodiesel Plants
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
ADAPTED FROM DORNELLES (2006)
2% (Optional)
2005 - 2007 2008 - 2012 2013 –
2% (Mandatory) 5% (Mandatory)
Potential Market:
800 million liters / year
Potential Market:
1 billion liters / year
Potential Market:
2,4 billion liters / year
Brazilian legislation establishes as compulsory a Brazilian legislation establishes as compulsory a minimum percentage (2%)minimum percentage (2%) of Biodiesel on Diesel of Biodiesel on Diesel
composition starting in 2008composition starting in 2008
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
ADAPTED FROM JUNQUEIRA (2007)
Company / Government Transport Equipment MixAmérica Latina Logística Locomotives B25Bebidas Ipiranga (Coca-Cola) Trucks B25Coletivos Pádova Bus B2Tocantins State Government Many kinds of vehicles B2Ettusa Bus B2Norsa (Coca-Cola NE) Trucks B2Campinas Local Government Bus B2Nova Odessa Local Government Many kinds of vehicles B2Tetra Pak Trucks B2Cia. Vale do Rio Doce Locomotives B20Viação Itaim Paulista Bus B20Curitiba Local Government Bus B20
Some Brazilian companies and government offices that are Some Brazilian companies and government offices that are already using biodiesel on their fleetalready using biodiesel on their fleet
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
Estimative ofEstimative of Demand and Supply of Biodiesel in 2008 (B2) Demand and Supply of Biodiesel in 2008 (B2)
Thousand m³
Projections Brazil (2008)
Demand Diesel - ~ 40.000
Demand Biodiesel (2%) - 800 Supply Biodiesel - 2.138
Surplus Biodiesel - 1.338
North (9%)Demand - 72Supply - 136Surplus - 64
Northeast (15%)
Demand - 120Supply - 507Surplus - 387
Southeast (45%)Demand - 360Supply - 638Surplus - 278
South (20%)Demand - 160Supply - 367Surplus - 207
Center-West (11%)
Demand - 88Supply- 490Surplus - 402
Plants
Authorized 21Waiting 40
Total 61
Capacity
Authorized 692
Waiting 1.446
Total 2.138
ADAPTED FROM BELTRÃO (2007)
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
Source: ROUSSEF (2004)
• Some studies in place related to Biodiesel transportation:Some studies in place related to Biodiesel transportation:– Location of crushers and biodiesel plantsLocation of crushers and biodiesel plants
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
ALCOHOLALCOHOL
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
Brazilian Alcohol ProductionBrazilian Alcohol Production
Source: UNICA (2006)
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
90/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07
CENTER-SOUTH NORTH-NORTHEAST
Thousand litersThousand liters
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
Source: ANFAVEA (2006)
Annual Sales of Cars by Fuel TypesAnnual Sales of Cars by Fuel Types
Picture: www.carsale.uol.com.br
0
200.000
400.000
600.000
800.000
1.000.000
1.200.000
1.400.000
1.600.000
1.800.000
2.000.000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Alcohol + Flex-Fuel PetroFuels
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
Source: BRAZIL (2006)
Annual Alcohol Exports Annual Alcohol Exports
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006*
Million litersMillion liters
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
Carburant Alcohol Production Carburant Alcohol Production
2006/2007
2012/2013
17.4 billions liters
35.7 billions liters*
*Estimates made by UNICA (2006)
Future production estimates premises:
New distilleries
Capacity expansion of existing distilleries
Expansion of sugarcane area
New sugarcane varieties
Industrial efficiency increase
(fermentation and distillation process)
Losses decrease
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
Brazilian Domestic Market Brazilian Domestic Market
14 billions liters
27.5 billions liters*
*Estimates made by UNICA (2006)
Future demand estimates premises:
2012/2013 fleet: 26 millions vehicles (cars)• 48% alcohol or flex-fuel vehicles• 52% gasoline vehicles• Flex-Fuel vehicles using 80% of alcohol
Gasoline C• Mix of 75% gasoline and 25% of alcohol (equal to currently mix)
Annual Sales of Flex-Fuel vehicles: • 84% of total fleet
2012/2013
2006/2007
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
Brazilian Alcohol External Market Brazilian Alcohol External Market
3.1 billions liters
7 billions liters*
*Estimates made by UNICA (2006)
Potential Markets for Carburant Alcohol:
North America
(Canada, E.U.A):
• 2 billion liters
Asia
(China, India, Japan, South Korea, Thailand)
• 2 billion liters
Europe:
• 1 billion liters
Others:
•1 billion liters
2012/2013
2006/2007
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (Center-South) Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (Center-South)
State 2006/2007 2012/213 New plantsSão Paulo 147 182 35Minas Gerais 25 43 18Goiás 15 25 10Paraná 27 31 4Mato Grosso do Sul 9 18 9Mato Grosso 10 10 0Rio de Janeiro 8 9 1Espírito Santo 6 6 0Rio Grande do Sul 1 1 0TOTAL 248 325 77
Source: UNICA (2006)
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (Center-South) Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (Center-South)
Source: UNICA (2006)
State 2006/2007 2012/213São Paulo 72% 62%Minas Gerais 7% 13%Goiás 4% 7%Paraná 7% 8%Mato Grosso do Sul 3% 5%Mato Grosso 4% 3%Rio de Janeiro 1% 1%Rio Grande do Sul 0% 0%
MTMT
DFDFGOGO
MSMS
PAPA
TOTO
MAMA
PIPI
BABA
MGMG
SPSP
RORO
AMAM
Expansion of Agriculture Frontiers...
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
Source: UNICA (2006)
Alcohol Exports (Billion liters)Alcohol Exports (Billion liters)
2006/2007 2012/20133.1 7.0
Alcohol Production (Billion liters)Alcohol Production (Billion liters)
2006/2007 2012/201317.4 35.7
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
Rapid expansion of new agricultural production areas
This scenario demands numerous studies and analysis related to
renewable fuel transportation and logistics:
Estimative of freight costs in the main transportation corridors Best routes for alcohol and biodiesel exporting flows Best location of crushing and biodiesel plantslocation of crushing and biodiesel plants Best level for alcohol stocks Use of pipelines for alcohol transportation Estimative of transportation costs in the international market Best maritime routes for renewable fuels Alcohol storage in both internal and external market . . .
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
ADAPTED FROM FIGUEIREDO (2006)
Pipeline
Rail
Rail
Ships/Barges
Pipeline
Rail
TrucksTrucks
Quantities
Distances
Transportation Mode Competitiveness
Which is the most adequate mode for the transportation of renewable fuels?
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
Main Transportation Corridors for Renewable Fuels
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
ADAPTED FROM TRANSPETRO (2007)
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
ADAPTED FROM TRANSPETRO (2007)
SCHEDULE FOR THE CONTRUCTION OF INFRA-STRUCTURE
INFRA-STRUCTURE
A – PIPELINE REPLAN – ILHA A – PIPELINE REPLAN – ILHA D’ÁGUAD’ÁGUA
B – PIPELINE – TIETÊ WATERWAYB – PIPELINE – TIETÊ WATERWAY
C – PIPELINE UBERABA - REPLANC – PIPELINE UBERABA - REPLAN
D – PIPELINE SENADOR CANEDO – D – PIPELINE SENADOR CANEDO – REPLAN AND GUARAREMA - SÃO REPLAN AND GUARAREMA - SÃO SEBASTIÃOSEBASTIÃO
E – PIPELINE REPAR – CAMPO E – PIPELINE REPAR – CAMPO GRANDE - CUIABÁGRANDE - CUIABÁ
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
ADAPTED FROM ANTF (2007)
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
THANKS!
José Eduardo Holler Branco
ESALQ-LOG (Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics) http://log.esalq.usp.br/
e-mail: [email protected]
Phone: 55-19-3429-4582
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
SOURCE: UDOP (2007)New Plants Installed
Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (SP) Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (SP)
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
SOURCE: UDOP (2007)New Plants Installed
Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (GO) Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (GO)
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
SOURCE: UDOP (2007)New Plants Installed
Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (MT) Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (MT)
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
SOURCE: UDOP (2007)New Plants Installed
Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (MS) Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (MS)
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
SOURCE: UDOP (2007)New Plants Installed
Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (PR) Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (PR)
Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics
• MME (2004) – Ministério de Minas e Energia. (Brazil) Available on: http://www.mme.gov.br/• BELTRÃO (2007) – Sérgio Tadeu Cabral Beltrão Available on: http://log.esalq.usp.br/home/pt/seminario.php?show=2007• DORNELLES (2006) – Ricardo Dornelles Available on: http://www.anp.gov.br/doc/biodiesel/GT%20BIODIESEL%20%201%C2%AA%20reuni%C3%A3o
%2018%20mai%2006%20-%20MME.pdf• JUNQUEIRA (2007) – Guilherme Junqueira Available on: http://log.esalq.usp.br/home/pt/seminario.php?show=2007• ROUSSEF (2004) – Dilma Roussef Available on: www.biodiesel.gov.br• ANFAVEA (2006) – Associação Nacional dos Fabricantes de Veículos Automotores Available on: www.anfavea.com.br• UNICA (2006) – União da Indústria de Cana-de_Açúcar Available on: www.unica.com.br• TRANSPETRO (2006) - Transpetro Available on: www.transpetro.com.br
• FIGUEIREDO (2006) – R. Figueiredo Available on: http://joomla.coppead.ufrj.br/port/index.php?option=com_docman&task=catview&gid=56&Itemid=204
• ANTF – Associação Nacional dos Transportadores Ferroviários Available on: www.antf.org.br• UDOP – União dos Produtores de Bioenergia Available on: www.udop.com.br