Vincenzo Artale (vincenzo.artale@enea.it)

ENEA Energy and Environment Modeling,

ENEA Technical Unit (UTMEA, http://utmea.enea.it/)

CR Casaccia, Rome (Italy)

Research and Technology activities at ENEA-UTMEA

UTMEA mission:

To understand and predict changes in Earth’s environment by:

The analysis of in situ and satellite data and developing numerical climate modeling of the Earth Systems and in particular of the Mediterranean Region;

To conserve and manage natural resources by:

The development of modeling tools/technological platform to fill the gap between RD&D results and market applications;

To meet economic, social, and environmental needs by:

Elaboration of integrated mitigation and adaptation strategies to mitigate the effects of climate change and to keep citizens informed of the changing environment around them;

The UTMEA Laboratories

UTMEA-TER

Earth Observations and Analysis

UTMEA-CLIM

Climate Modelling and Impacts

UTMEA-CAL

Computing and Technologic Infrastructures

UTMEA-MACC

Adaptation to Climate Change

- Studies on the evolution of climate on different time scales

- Ice cores - long-term observations - measurement networks and observatories

- Process studies through intensive measurement campaigns

- Development of innovative instruments

- Environmental/territorial studies based on remote sensing techniques

Laboratory for Earth Observations and Analyses (UTMEA-TER; http://utmea.enea.it/labs/TER)

Ice drilling programs: HOLOCLIP, TALDICE

Sea level studies

Observatories: Thule (Greenland; NDACC) Lampedusa (Mediterranean; WMO, AERONET, etc.) Meteo-climatic Observatory (Antarctica)

Studies on atmospheric aerosol, radiative budget, and climate Collaborations with US Institutes NASA (AERONET, Lampedusa) NOAA (Cooperative Air Sampling Network, Lampedusa; Central UV Calibration Facility) NCAR (Antarctic Meteorology; Meteo Climatic Observatory in Antarctica) Universities: North Carolina at Wilmington (sea level, coastal processes) Ohio State University (Polar Meteorology) University of Wisconsin (Polar Meteorology)

Conclusions-1

7

Pursuing cooperation with other external organisation, the Lab makes available considerable elements like:

-Specially equipped systems for spatial data processing and well skilled human resources for using them;

-Notable and qualified amount of know-how about EO & GIS applications;

-Front end to numerous Italian P.A. Institutions, private firms and SME.

Proposed cooperation areas and themes:

Joint design and development of new processing methodologies for satellite remote sensing systems (active and passive) aimed to:

- Calibrate and validate global climate numerical models;

- Support the adoption of mitigation and adaptation strategies to climate change;

- Land planning (GIS, environmental emergencies, DSS);

- Natural vegetation and agriculture monitoring;

- Evaluate the human activities impact on land and environment (LU/LCC, desertification, coastal erosion, etc…)

Focal point for collection and characterization of application needs by P.A. (Central, Regional and Local).

progetti europei in FP7 sui temi portanti del

laboratorio: osservazioni gas serra (ai poli e

lampedusa, area mediterranea e EV-K2) e

carotaggi in antartide/artico

1. INGOS, (integrated -CO2 GHG observation system)

2. GHG Europe

3. Progetto ICE2SEA

1) Tools for Analysis & Modeling Infrastructure interdependencies;

2) Modeling the impact of propagation of adverse events throughout interdependencies on services delivered to customers;

3) Trusted and secure information sharing and alerting system;

4) Risk assessment and prediction in regional systems of interdependent infrastructures;

5) Analysis and assessment of climatic variability and climatic prediction;

6) ENEA offer climate services for the Mediterranean Area;

Technologies for Critical Infrastructures and

Environment Protection (UTMEA-CAL)

Critical Infrastructure Protection and Environment Protection

Risk assessment and prediction in regional systems of

interdependent infrastructures

Knowledge

base

-on

Tools

Diesis Middleware

End-User Interface

Results

Presentation

Scenarios

configuration

Domain Simulators

Models

Repository

(3rd parties)

Scenarios

Repository

Interdep

Model

Repository

Hardware Communication Layer

Simulators Output Results

Scenarios deployment and design interface

Sim

ula

tor

s

Sce

na

rio

s

Setu

p

Pre

sen

tati

on

Add-on

Tools

Interdependency Simulators

Interoperable Simulation Middleware

Cisia Ciab Simcip Scenario expert

Repositories

Decision Maker

ENEA Modeling and Simulation Platform Architecture

progetti in FP7, sicurezza delle reti,

modellizzazione delle interdipendenze, etc.

AFTER AFTER project aims at increasing the Transmission System Operator (TSO) capabilities in creating, monitoring and managing secure interconnected electrical power system infrastructures, being able to survive major failures and to efficiently restore service supply after major disruptions.

CIPRNET The Critical Infrastructure Preparedness and Resilience Research Network or CIPRNet establishes a Network of Excellence in Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP) R&D for a wide range of stakeholders including (multi)national emergency management, critical infrastructure (CI) operators, policy makers, and the society. This centre will form the foundation for the European Infrastructures Simulation & Analysis Centre (EISAC) by 2020.

In conclusion it is possible, using the technologies available today, to manage the environmental recourses without to limit their development (tourism, energetic system) and therefore to guarantee a sustainable economics

CONCLUSION-3

Thanks for your attention !!

UTMEA-CLIM Climate Modeling and Impacts

UTMEA-CLIM Laboratory works on understanding and predicting climate variability and change at the regional scale. Key activities include: the development and maintenance of a regional Earth System Model for climate change studies; the implementation of very-high-resolution ocean models for ocean forecasting and process studies; the study of large scale ocean and atmospheric dynamics; the understanding and evaluation of climate impacts on energy, agriculture, water-management sectors.

European Projects and International collaborations

EU Projects:

1 AMMA – African Monsoon Multidisciplinary

Analysis

Collaboration with UCLA, Un of Albany

2 CIRCE (FP6) – Climate Impacts on the

Mediterranean

3 CLIM-RUN (FP7) – Development of Climate Services

over the Mediterranean (ENEA coordinator

Un of Maryland as partner)

4 SPECS and EUPORIAS (FP7)

International collaborations:

1 MIT, development of oceanic models

2 Un of New Hampshire, River routing modeling

3 Woods Hole, Geophysical-fluidynamics

………..

“CRUCIAL EXPERIMENTS”

A strict application of the scientific method requires a

process of isolation of constituent subsystems and

experimental verification of a hypothesis. For the

climate system, this is only possible by

using numerical models. Such models have

become the central pillar of the quantitative scientific

approach to climate science because they allow us to

perform “ crucial” experiments under the controlled

conditions that science demands. Sometimes crucial

experiments are …like the quest for the Higgs boson

currently going on at CERN. (by A. Navarra, J. L. Kinter III , an d J. Tribbia, BAMS, 2010)

Protheus: a Regional Coupled System for climate change assessment in the Mediterranean region

The PROTHEUS

Group

PROTHEUS Model

Model domain

Model components

RegCM3

MedMIT

18 sigma vertical levels 30 Km horizontal resolution

42 zeta vertical levels (partial cell) 1/8° x 1/8° horizontal resolution

BATS + IRIS

BATS: Biosph.-Atmosph. Transfer Scheme

IRIS: interactive RIvers Scheme

OASIS 3

Freq. 6h SST

HF-WF-Wind

Gibraltar

Strait model ?

G.Pisacane, M.V.Struglia and B. Fekete,

in preparation

River modelling (future version) in Protheus

Estimate of monthly mean

discharge at the river mouth

river routing model

(CCNY-CUNY)

Bi-dimensional field of river

discharge

Regional model Vertical balance of water fluxes

in land-vegetation module

monthly total runoff fields

Inverse distance interpolation (IDI) on a

lat/lon grid reconstruction of

hydrographic basins (Oki and Sud,1998 Earth

Interactions, 2)

daily total runoff

fields

In collaboration with the City College of

New York, the NASA Jet Propulsion

Laboratory and the World Wildlife Fund

DANUBE

Discharge at the Danube outlet

(routing vs. monthly estimate,

one year test)

Discharge at the Danube outlet

estimated seasonal climatology vs. data (red)

UTMEA - CLIM Lab.

Impact for future scenario of the Mediterranean Region

• SLR

• Aridity Index

• Snow cover

• Total runoff

• Olive system

• Land-cover change

• Energy from the sea

Impacts of long term fluctuations of the seasonal

cycle in an A1B scenario over the Euro-Mediterranean area using a

regional earth system model

PROTHEUS Validation: Present climate simulation

Total sea level

anomalies for the

Mediterranean

sub-basins.

Values computed

from PROTHEUS

ERA40 run (blu

line) & altimeter

data (black line).

Sea Level Anomalies Carillo et al., Climate Dynamics, 2012

From a review of all available data set for the Mediterranean Sea we found an

warming trend of 0.022 °C/decade in SST over the last 150 yrs, moreover in the Gulf

of Cadiz the MOW displays a trend of 0.16 °C/decade and 0.05/decade in salinity

over the last 50 yrs;

The coupled model (Protheus System) predicts significant interannual variability

including EMT and acceleration of warming in particular after the 2020 with an average

value of 0.16 °C/decade; the steric sea level trend ranges in the basin from -0.32

cm/yr to 0.34 cm/yr , with a mean over the Mediterranean of 0.028 cm/yr . A strong

increase in the sea level trend due to the thermal component is observed in the

second part of the 50 year simulation.

Protheus simulation analysis shows significant differences in the occurrence and

in the patterns of intense rainfall episodes between the downscaling and the

global driver. In particular a more accurate description of complex orography

surrounding the Mediterranean Sea, as well as of land surface processes,

produces more organized patterns in the tendency of key impact indicators such

as the aridity index and the snow cover.

Conclusion-2