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Accelerating success.
Research & Forecast Report
ORLANDOQ4 2017 | Multifamily
Source: AXIOMetrics. RCA, CoStar
Market Survey Results and ForecastsSequential Month Annual
1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 Dec-17 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
Effective Rent Per Unit $1,168 $1,202 $1,223 $1,230 $1,237 $1,090 $1,149 $1,206 $1,251 $1,289 $1,338 $1,375
Per Sq. Ft $1.21 $1.24 $1.26 $1.27 $1.28 $1.13 $1.19 $1.25 $1.29 $1.33 $1.38 $1.42
Effective Rent Growth - Annually 4.4% 4.9% 4.6% 5.8% 6.5% 7.0% 5.4% 4.9% 3.8% 3.0% 3.8% 2.8%
Effective Rent Growth - Quarterly 0.5% 2.8% 1.7% 0.6%
Occupancy Rate 95.5% 96.0% 96.0% 95.9% 95.9% 95.7% 95.8% 95.8% 95.1% 95.3% 95.7% 95.2%
Occupancy Change - Annually -0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% -0.8% 0.2% 0.4% -0.5%
Occupancy Change - Quarterly 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.2%
Economic Concessions Concession Value $-5.23 $-4.61 $-2.64 $-2.85 $-3.37 $-4.07 $-4.43
As a % of Asking Rent -0.4% -0.4% -0.2% -0.2% -0.3% -0.4% -0.4%
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 2www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
RECENT SALESDate Property Name Address City Units Year Built Price in $ $/Units
Jan-18 Cane Island 5251 Cane Island Loop Kissimmee 166 2007 25,766,666.70 155,221
Dec-17 Broadstone Passerelle 895 Broadstone Way Altamonte Springs
392 2017 76,650,000.00 195,536
Dec-17 Winter Park Commons 5 Autumn Breeze Way Orlando 432 1972 53,300,000.00 123,380
Dec-17 Murano at Grande Lakes 9932 Grande Lakes Blvd Orlando 240 2016 50,250,000.00 209,375
Dec-17 Oak Glen Apartments 2048 Mercy Dr Orlando 88 2002 4,600,000.00 52,273
Dec-17 The Place at Millennia 5215 Millenia Blvd Orlando 371 2008 57,000,000.00 153,639
Nov-17 Patterson Court 8151 Patterson Woods Dr Orlando 384 2008 68,650,000.00 178,776
Nov-17 The Domain 3100 Domain Cir Four Corners 324 2017 57,672,000.00 178,000
Nov-17 Lantower Grande Pines 6351 International Golf Club Rd
Orlando 282 2016 59,500,000.00 210,993
Nov-17 Station House 188 E Crystal Lake Ave Lake Mary 200 2015 35,350,000.00 176,750
Nov-17 Arbors at Maitland 8636 Villa Point Maitland 663 1998 102,000,000.00 153,846
Nov-17 Linden Audubon Park (PH I)
990 Warehouse Rd Orlando 254 2016 54,807,524.00 215,778
Nov-17 Linden Audubon Park (PH II)
980 Warehouse Rd Orlando 196 2017 42,292,420.10 215,778
Nov-17 Falcon Trace Apartment Homes
1635 Peregrine Falcons Way Southchase 252 1999 34,625,000.00 137,401
Oct-17 ARIUM MetroWest 2454 Lake Debra Dr Orlando 510 2002 86,000,000.00 168,627
Oct-17 ARIUM Hunters Creek 13300 Colony Square Dr Orlando 532 1999 97,500,000.00 183,271
Oct-17 4213 Dunwoodie Boulevard
4213 Dunwoodie Blvd Orlando 172 1985 9,780,786.00 56,865
Oct-17 Hideaway North 229 Loraine Dr Altamonte Springs
108 1973 6,000,000.00 55,556
Oct-17 Alta Eastmar Commons (Phase III)
Cnr Eastmar Commons Blvd And N Dean Rd
Orlando 312 2016 56,450,000.00 180,929
Oct-17 Canterbury Cove 10200 Falcon Pine Blvd Orlando 300 2006 47,700,000.00 159,000
Oct-17 Timber Sound Apartments 4933 Raleigh St Orlando 240 1997 18,500,000.00 77,083
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 3www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
Multifamily Absorption and Supply
Annual 4Q17 Annual Forecast
2014 2015 2016 Market National 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
Total Units Absorbed 7,327 7,054 4,750 7,693 367,785 8,131 3,418 6,137 3,388 1,591
New Supply 4,751 6,339 5,583 7,620 365,158 7,620 6,842 4,082 3,012 3,833
Inventory Growth 2.2% 2.9% 2.4% 3.1% 1.5% 3.3% 2.8% 1.6% 1.2% 1.5%
Market Employment and Permitting
Annual November-17 Annual Forecast
2014 2015 2016 Market National 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
Employment (000s) 1,108.9 1,157.8 1,206.3 1,272.0 148,507.0 1,246.9 1,273.8 1,298.1 1,322.8 1,345.1
Job Gain (000s) 43.3 48.9 48.5 38.8 2,114.0 40.6 26.9 24.3 24.7 22.3
Job Growth (%) 4.1% 4.4% 4.2% 3.1% 1.4% 3.4% 2.2% 1.9% 1.9% 1.7%
Total Residential Permitting 16,529 20,201 23,251 20,019 1,155,517 20,279 19,717 17,490 20,663 23,142
Relative Change 10.3% 22.2% 15.1% -6.4% 6.3% -12.8% -2.8% -11.3% 18.1% 12.0%
Single Family Units Permitted 9,962 12,328 14,208 13,572 756,569
Relative Change 4.1% 23.8% 15.2% 1.6% 10.2%
Multifamily Units Permitted 6,356 7,621 8,627 6,068 366,148
Relative Change 20.4% 19.9% 13.2% -21.2% -1.3%
Multifamily as a % of Total 38.5% 37.7% 37.1% 30.3% 31.7%
Demand/Supply Ratio Job Gain / Total Residential Units Permitted 2.9 3.0 2.4 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.1
Job Gain / Single Family Units Permitted 4.5 4.9 3.9 2.9 3.1
Job Gain / Multifamily Units Permitted 8.2 7.7 6.4 5.0 5.7
SUPPLY AND DEMANDAccording to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job growth in Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL Metro Area was 3.1% in November 2017, reflecting 38,800 jobs added during a 12-month period. The metro job growth figure was above the national number of 1.4%.
Axiometrics forecasts Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL Metro Area’s job growth to be 2.2% in 2018, with 26,929 jobs added. Job growth is expected to average 1.8% from 2019 to 2021, with an average of 23,761 jobs added each year.
On the supply side, permits for 6,185 multifamily units were issued in the 12 months ending in November 2017, down -2,442 units from the prior year’s sum. In terms of total residential housing, 21,199 units were permitted in the 12 months ending November 2017, a decrease of -2,052 units from the prior year’s total.
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 4www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
IDENTIFIED SUPPLYAs of January 15, 2018, Axiometrics has identified 6,592 apartment units scheduled for delivery in 2017, which all units have been delivered. As a comparison, there were 4,669 apartment units delivered in 2016. Properties delivered to the market in the last 12 months have achieved an average asking rent of $1,488 per unit, or $1.50 per square foot. Effective rent has averaged $1,441, or $1.45 per square foot, resulting in an average concession value of $-46.81. As a comparison, existing properties in the market had an average asking rent of $1,232 per unit ($1.27 per square foot) and an average effective rent of $1,230 per unit, or $1.27 per square foot, in 4Q17. Concessions for existing properties averaged $-2.85.
Submarket Delivery Schedule
Pipeline Delivery Schedule Pipeline Lease Up Trend
Units Absorbed Asking Rent Effective Rent
Top Submarkets 2015 2016 2017 Total Totals PPM Per Unit PSF Per Unit PSF East Altamonte/Casselberry 749 749 599 18 $1,399 $1.40 $1,383 $1.39
Far South/Lake Buena Vista 614 554 839 2,007 613 20 $1,511 $1.54 $1,434 $1.45
Osceola County/Other 112 224 632 968 237 16 $1,452 $1.42 $1,426 $1.40
South Central/527/441 1,208 353 939 2,500 584 16 $1,692 $1.80 $1,634 $1.73
West Altamonte Springs 249 904 1,153 504 11 $1,454 $1.40 $1,405 $1.35
Other 3,884 3,289 2,529 9,702 2,062 17 $1,484 $1.48 $1,440 $1.44
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 5,818 4,669 6,592 17,079 4,599 17 $1,499 $1.51 $1,454 $1.46*Based on 2017 deliveries *Trend based on a trailing 12 month period
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 5www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
DOWNTOWN ORLANDO
Key
Lease-Up
Under Construction
Proposed
GREATER ORLANDO
Downtown Orlando
PIPELINE MAP
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COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 6www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
PIPELINE DETAIL# Name Status Owner Address Market UnitsProposed1 The Yard at Ivanhoe Proposed Real Estate Inverlad Development,
LLC1500 Alden Rd College Park MF 630
2 Dwell at Oviedo Proposed Oviedo Luxury Living Ltd W Broadway St East Outlying-Seminole MF
296
3 Cloudberry Lodge Proposed Nine Wicket Senior Developers of Altamonte, llc
E Central Pky Northeast MF 110
4 520 East Proposed Katsur Management Group 520 E Church St Downtown Orlando MF 5105 The Lofts at South Lake Proposed Inland Atlantic Development
CorporationCitrus Tower Blvd Lake County MF 144
6 6201 Corporate Centre Blvd Proposed The Richman Group of Florida, Inc. 6201 Corporate Centre Blvd Airport North MF 2807 The Crane at Altamonte Springs Proposed Harbco Construction 200 Cranes Roost Blvd Northeast MF 2988 Lake House Proposed Alliance Residential Company 301 NE Ivanhoe Blvd College Park MF 2889 Orlando Central Proposed HHH Management, Inc. 110 W Jefferson St Downtown Orlando MF 45010 Magnolia Rose Proposed Banner Development 108 E Livingston St Downtown Orlando MF 38911 Alexan at Audubon Proposed Crow Holdings Industrial 3710 Maguire Blvd Winter Park MF 35612 Mariposa Apartments Proposed Thornton Commons Llc 550-555 Mariposa St Downtown Orlando MF 21513 Mercy Proposed The City Of Orlando Downtown
Development Board/Com1740-1770 Mercy Dr Mercy Drive MF 166
14 GrandeVille at Jubilee Phase II Proposed LeCesse Development Corporation 3850 Merryvale Ln Airport North MF 65715 Moss Park Rd Proposed Picerne Real Estate Group Moss Park Rd Lake Nona MF 27516 The View at Lake Monroe Proposed Frank Ioppolo 2485 US HWY 17-92 Sanford MF 30017 Vista Oaks Proposed Epoch Vista Apartments Llc 10341 Vista Oaks Ct Southwest MF 350
Units 5,714
Under Construction18 The Station on Alafaya Under Construction Landmark Properties Alfaya Trl @ Park Road Outer Southeast MF 17719 Creative Village Under Construction City of Orlando Utilities
Commission600 W Amelia St Downtown Orlando MF 112
20 Sage Park Assisted Living and Memory Care
Under Construction Osceola Alf Real Estate, LLC 1701 Ball Park Rd Osceola County MF 128
21 Ariel Apartments - Phased II Under Construction Tavistock Development Company 14001 Benvolio Cir Lake Nona MF 10822 IMT Maitland Under Construction IMT Capital 895 Broadstone Way Northwest-Seminole
County392
23 Sonoma Hills - Phase II Under Construction Rockharbor Investments 14619 Casita Rdg Southwest MF 29224 Windsor at Celebration Under Construction Big Rock Partners, LLC 1250 Celebration Blvd Osceola County MF 24025 The Strand Apartments - Phase
IIUnder Construction P.A.C. Land Development
Corporation370 Center Lake Ln Outer Southeast MF 90
26 Modera Central Under Construction The University Club of Orlando 168 E Central Blvd Downtown Orlando MF 35027 City Centre Under Construction Bortz Group 205-215 E Central Blvd Downtown Orlando MF 39428 The Hub on Campus Orlando Under Construction 12401 E Colonial Dr Southeast MF 187
29 Adara World Gateway Under Construction Davis Development 15050 Ember Springs Cir Hunters Vista MF 41130 Alta Grande Under Construction Wood Partners 3512-3901 Grande Reserve
WayWilliamsburg MF 314
31 Integra 360 - Phase II Under Construction ICI Homes 1700 Integra Land Way East Outlying-Seminole MF
310
32 Solaya Under Construction Bainbridge Construction, LLC, 6351 International Golf Club Rd
Williamsburg MF 322
33 MargaritaVillage Under Construction Encore Capital Management, LLC 8006 W Irlo Bronson Memorial Hwy
Osceola County MF 300
34 Westwood Park Apartments Under Construction Atlantic Housing Partners 11037 Laguna Bay Dr Williamsburg MF 17835 304 Lake Ave Under Construction Matrix Residential 304 Lake Ave Maitland MF 23736 Broadstone Winter Park Under Construction Benjamin Partners 1551 Lee Rd Maitland MF 26837 Drake Midtown Apartments Under Construction Unicorp National Development 180 Longwood Lake Mary Rd Lake Mary MF 26338 Griffin Farms at Midtown Under Construction Unicorp National Developments
Inc.Longwood-Lake Mary Rd Lake Mary MF 268
39 Integra Sunrise Under Construction Integra Land Company 4701 Luminous Loop Hunters Vista MF 300
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 7www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
PIPELINE DETAIL, cont.40 Crescent Lucerne Under Construction FCA Fund Orlando I, LLC c/o
Foundry Commercial818 Main Ln Downtown Orlando MF 370
41 The Blake Apartments Under Construction Catalyst Development Partners, LLC
151 Michael Blake Blvd Northeast MF 381
42 Bainbridge at Nona Place Under Construction The Bainbridge Companies 12915 Narcoossee Rd Lake Hart MF 28843 Villages at West Lake Under Construction Lift Orlando, Inc. 2021 Orange Center Blvd Lake Sunset MF 32044 Vera Luxury Apartments Under Construction Seminole B C C County Services
Building450 N Oregon St Sanford MF 345
45 Maitland Estates Under Construction Camden Land Partners, LLC 400 N Orlando Ave Winter Park MF 30046 Maitland Station Under Construction EPOCH Residential 955 N Orlando Ave Maitland MF 29347 Maitland City Centre Under Construction The Allen Morris Company 111 S Orlando Ave Maitland MF 24048 Sunrise Parc Under Construction Integra Land Company 000 W Osceola Pky Osceola County MF 30049 Vernazza Apartments Under Construction Fore Property Company 902 W Osceola Pky Osceola County MF 33650 Altis at Shingle Creek - Phased II Under Construction The Altman Companies 4350 Osceola Trail Rd Osceola County MF 30251 Springs at Tapestry - Phase II Under Construction Continental Properties Company,
Inc.2601 Pledge Rd Osceola County MF 258
52 Portofino Under Construction Sentry Management, Inc. 14100 Portofino Way Osceola County MF 12053 The Alexander at Sabal Point -
Phase IIUnder Construction Alexander Investments
International, Inc2700 Sabal Alexander Cir Northwest-Seminole
County196
54 Lakewalk at Hamlin Apartments Under Construction Boyd Development Corporation 14012 Shoreside Way Southwest MF 31655 The Princeton at College Park Under Construction Pollack Shores Real Estate Group 636 W Smith St College Park MF 20556 Solstice Apartments Under Construction Northwood Ravin 7511 Solstice Cir Williamsburg MF 30957 Maitland West Under Construction NM Residential 9301 Summit Centre Way Maitland MF 31558 Pixon at Lake Nona Under Construction Tavistock Development Company 7004 Tavistock Lakes Blvd Lake Nona MF 15759 The Addison At Windermere Under Construction ContraVest 13644 Tortona Ln Southwest MF 31660 The Addison on Universal Under Construction ContraVest 9600 Universal Blvd Florida Center MF 34461 Millennium at Citrus Ridge Under Construction Summit Broadband Inc US Highway 192 Osceola County MF 326
Units 11,978
Total Units 17,692
# Name Status Owner Address Market Units
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 8www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
Venue at Lakewood RanchSarasota, FLUnits: 237
VENUE AT LAKEWOOD RANCH | Sarasota, FL
CHALLENGE: The challenge for this property was to sell prior to stabilization, and upon 65% occupancy in a market that no longer supports pre-sales.
STRATEGY & RESULTS: To sell this community, which was still under construction, our team was able to leverage our years of experience in order to match the seller with a buyer whose tastes in property acquisition met those of the property.
The East Region Multifamily Advisor Group provided Broker representation to both the buyer and seller. Additionally, We provided the clients with market research, property marketing, and assisted through all negotiations. We were successful in achieving the highest price on record in the Sarasota market, even prior to stabilization.
CLIENT: Davis Development UNITS: 237
OUR PROVEN TRACK RECORDRecent Closings
Grandville on SaxonOrange City, FLUnits: 316
San Marin ApartmentsTampa, FLUnits: 193
Grand Reserve at Park IsleClearwater, FLUnits: 390
WHO WE AREOne of the largest and most
experienced teams of multifamily
specialists in the industry
Units sold since 2011
39,000MORE THAN
Group gross transaction value in since 2011
$2.8B
Dedicated Multifamily Professionals & Advisors
50MORE THAN
Expansive geographic footprint
24COVERING OVER
STATES
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 9www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
WE CAN HELPAs an investor in multifamily properties, you need a firm that provides experience, broad reach and the ability to market an asset no matter how challenging the economic environment. You need a team that specializes in your market you need The East Region Multifamily Advisory Group.
Colliers International has one of the largest and most experienced teams in the industry, strategically located in key markets throughout North America. Our combination of market dominance, expertise, and singular focus, make us uniquely successful in helping our clients achieve their disposition objectives.
How are we able to bring together the skills and tools necessary to complete challenging assignments? Our East Region Multifamily Advisory Group is connected by purpose and focus. Our team is dedicated to sharing information on market opportunities, capital sources and buyers/sellers to achieve the best results for our clients.
www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
To learn more, scan this with a QR code reader or visit:
Craig BrownSENIOR ASSOCIATE | EAST REGION
[email protected] +1 407 312 9349
Will MathewsSENIOR VICE PRESIDENT | PRINCIPAL | EAST REGION
[email protected] +1 404 877 9285
AT YOUR SERVICE
Payton HerschbergerASSOCIATE | EAST REGION
[email protected] +1 404 574 1061
