Residential Development Tracking Project

Nassau County Development Trends - 2017 - 11

Residential Development Tracking Project

figuRE 2. REsidEntial dEVEloPmEnt tRaCkER

12 - Nassau County Development Trends - 2017

Housing

Esri, HERE, DeLorme, MapmyIndia, © OpenStreetMap contributors, and the GIS user community

District 501

District 502

District 503

District 505

District 504

0 2 4 6 81Miles

[

figuRE 3. nassau County CommissionER distRiCts

DISTRICT 501: 21%

DISTRICT 502: 8%

DISTRICT 503: 60%

DISTRICT 504: 3%

DISTRICT 505: 8%

Graph 9. Building Permit Percentages per Commissioner District 2017

16

‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17

519 562589 628

970

1285

1109

655

431

196257 283 265

463

541

1006915

1036

gRaPh 10. building PERmits foR nEw REsidEntial dwElling units in nassau County fRom 2000 to 2017

16


Housing

aPPRoVEd Pud’s in 2017-2018:Nassau Crossing: *350 Single Family Units, *450 Multi-Family Units (15%

reserved for workforce housing @ 80% AMI)

*300,000sf of Office & Retail Space

*Five acre reservation for a future transit station

*Publicly accessible Community and Neighborhood Park

*Private Neighborhood/Pocket Parks

*Over two miles of publicly accessible multi-use trails

*Redevelopment of William Burgess Blvd.

Plats/housing PRojECts in REViEw: Laurel Oak Estates: Crane Island Phase I: Hideaway Phase 1B: Candlewood Farms: Heartwood Farms: Mills Creek Farms: Hampton Lakes Phase 3: Woodbridge Phase 4**: Wildlight Apartment Complex: Mills Creek Preserve:Crane Island Phase II**: Concourse Crossing PUD*: Wildlight Phase 1C-1 and 1C-2: Village Walk Phase One:Village Walk Phase Two:

Blackrock Park Phase II: ENCPA Village Center: Plummer Creek Phase 2B: Barnwell Manor: Heron Isles Phase 3C: Horseshoe Ridge: Hampton Mill: Mills Corner: Lumber Creek Phase II: Creekstone: Hamtpon Lakes Phase II: Heron Isles Phase Two C-3: Amelia Concourse Phase 2: Villas at Oyster Bay Harbour: Clear Lakes Unit 2: Cashen Farms: McCully Forest: Andy’s Acres: Lumber Creek Phase 3: Flora Parke Unit 6B: Woodbridge Phase 3: Sandy Pointe Preserve Unit 1: Woodbrier Phase 2:

55 SF Lots 84 SF Lots 76 SF Lots189 SF Lots 39 SF Lots 4 SF Lots 3 SF Lots 9 SF Lots 78 SF Lots 46 SF Lots134 SF Lots 56 SF Lots153 SF Lots 54 SF Lots 72 SF Lots 6 SF Lots 7 SF Lots 5 SF Lots165 SF Lots 60 SF Lots113 SF Lots 71 SF Lots 41 SF Lots

Total: 1,520 Units

30 SF Lots 47 SF Lots 73 SF Lots 6 SF Lots 6 SF Lots 6 SF Lots 95 SF Lots 104 SF Lots300 MF Units350 MF Units 66 SF Lots 275 SF Lots257 SF Lots 72 SF Lots 59 SF Lots

Total: 1,746 Units

*Current PUD in review, not yet approved by decision making body. **Infrastructure Plans (Engineering Plans) in Review prior to plat submittal.

Plats aPPRoVEd in 2017-2018 (sf = singlE family lots/units):


Housing

Graph 11. Average Home Sales Price in Nassau County by Zip Code7

gRaPh 12. mEan salEs PRiCE in nassau 1990-20179

gRaPh 13. mEdian salEs PRiCEs 1990-20179

$181

,584

$164

,405

$356

,569

$132

,103 $2

07,2

30

$194

,963

$182

,129

$373

,625

$173

,676

$204

,336

$193

,297

$188

,297

$394

,493

$173

,005 $2

23,1

34

32009 32011 32034 32046 32097

2015

2016

2017

Single Family Home

Condominium

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2017

$100,000.00

$200,000.00

$300,000.00

$400,000.00

$500,000.00

$600,000.00

$700,000.00

$800,000.00

$900,000.00

$92,545

$172,737

$340,127

$766,034

$192,825$244,182

$333,169

$413,022

Single Family Home

Condominium

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2017

$50,000.00 $100,000.00 $150,000.00 $200,000.00 $250,000.00 $300,000.00 $350,000.00 $400,000.00 $450,000.00

$80,900

$147,750

$255,000

$385,500

$120,600

$192,200$255,250

$290,000


Housing

figuRE 4. ZiPCodE maP & aVERagE salEs PRiCE by ZiPCodE


Values

Taxable Value17 majoR takEaways:

1. taxable value remains below 2006 & 2007 levels

2. the % of non-residential tax parCels has deCreased sinCe 2001

3. the % of residential tax parCels has inCreased by 6% sinCe 2001

4. non-residential tax parCels only represent 2% of total tax parCels yet represents 11% of the total tax money ColleCted

5. on a per parCel basis residential tax parCels provide an averaGe of $1,366 to the bCC.

6. on a per parCel basis non-residential tax parCels provides an averaGe of $6,767 to the bCC.

Total Number of Tax Parcels 20

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

1620

17

Vacant

Residential

Other

Non-Residential

40,000

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

62%

68%

31%27%

xx% - Percent of overall parcels represented by parcel type. By %, non-residential parcels decreased by 1% over 17 years.

2%

4%

3%

4%

Average Taxable Value per Parcel

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Vacant Residential

Other Non-Residential

$900,000$800,000$700,000$600,000$500,000$400,000$300,000$200,000$100,000

0

$821,574

$53,222

$215,797

$317,355

$480,199

$279,445

$94,854

$39,982

$8,000

$7,000

$6,000

$5,000

$4,000

$3,000

$2,000

$1,000

0

Vacant

Residential

Other

Non-Residential

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Average Taxes to the BOCC per Tax Parcel

$6,767

$438

$1,366

$2,614$3,700

$2,153

$731

$308

gRaPh 14. total numbER of tax PaRCEls

gRaPh 15. aVERagE taxablE ValuE PER PaRCEl

gRaPh 16. aVERagE taxEs to thE boCC PER PaRCEl


Values/Non-residential Projects

gRaPh 17. total taxablE ValuE

majoR aPPRoVEd CommERCial PRojECts* in 2017-2018: Lasserre Commercial Development (Aldi Grocery, Panda Express, 3 available development pads) Villages of Amelia, Phase II (63,000 sqft of Retail Space) Yulee Professional Plaza (16,000 sqft of Office/Retail Space) Ratliff Commercial (9,200 sqft Retail Space) Chester Corner Commercial (21,150 sqft Office and Retail Space) Amelia Island Hotel (56,450 sqft) Azar Commercial Building (6,000 sqft Retail Space)ENCPA Village Center Infrastructure (infrastructure plans for the commercial portion of Wildlight)

majoR CommERCial PRojECts in REViEw: Nassauville Commercial Retail (9,100 sqft Retail Space) UF Health Center (52,000 sqft Medical Offices) Nassau Crossing PUD Core I Final Development Plan (Infrastructure for up to 400,000 mixed-use) Wildlight Commerce Park (1,300,000 sqft of Industrial Space) Wildlight Commercial Parcel (9,100 sqft Retail/Restaurant Space)

*Major Commercial Projects are projects over 5,000 square feet

dEVEloPmEnt oVERlay aREas: East Nassau Community Planning Area (ENCPA) Sector Plan (http://www.nassaucountyfl.com/761/East-Nassau-Community-Planning-Area-ENCP)William Burgess Mixed Use Activity Center Overlay District (http://www.nassaucountyfl.com/860/William-Burgess)

Current Non-Res. & Mixed-use Projects

All Parcel Types

Total Taxable Value

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

$9,000,000,000

$8,000,000,000

$7,000,000,000

$6,000,000,000

$5,000,000,000

$4,000,000,000

$3,000,000,000

$7,811,856,786

$3,532,555,179

$8,198,060,305$8,364,613,691

$6,208,642,378$5,944,978,492

http://http://www.nassaucountyfl.com/761/East-Nassau-Community-Planning-Area-ENCP

http://http://www.nassaucountyfl.com/761/East-Nassau-Community-Planning-Area-ENCP

http://http://www.nassaucountyfl.com/860/William-Burgess


Regional Context

MARION

VOLUSIA

LAKE

DUVAL

CLAY

PUTNAMALACHUA

NASSAU

ST JOHNS

BAKER

CITRUS

FLAGLER

LEVY

SUMTER

UNION

BREVARDSEMINOLE

BRADFORD

ORANGEHERNANDO

COLUMBIA

Esri, HERE, DeLorme, MapmyIndia, © OpenStreetMap contributors, and the GISuser community

LegendRegional Area

Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)

Surrounding Counties

0 9.5 19 28.5 384.75Miles

[

figuRE 5. REgional maP

REgional ContExtRegional Population Trends

NASSAU 5%

DUVAL 63%

ST. JOHN’S 14%

CLAY 15%

BAKER 2%

Graph 18. Population Distribution within the MSA in 20178

NAS

SAU

CO

UNTY

: 152

PEO

PLE P

ER S

QUA

RE M

ILE I

N 2

017

DUV

AL C

OUN

TY: 1

,229

PEO

PLE

PER

SQUA

RE M

ILE I

N 2

017

CLA

Y C

OUN

TY: 3

45 P

EOPL

E PER

SQ

UARE

MIL

E IN 2

017

S T. J

OHN

’S C

OUN

TY: 3

45 P

EOPL

E PER

SQ

UARE

MIL

E IN 2

017

BAKE

R C

OUN

TY: 4

7 PE

OPL

E PER

SQ

UARE

MIL

E IN 2

017

Gra

ph 1

9. Pe

ople

Per

Squ

are

Mile

in th

e M

SA8


Regional Context

gRaPh 20. histoRiCal tREnds foR suRRounding REgion8

7,363

25.5% 65.4%

# Population#% Percent Change

20.9% 20.4% 21.8% 0.3%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017

9,242

15,289

18,486

22,259

27,115 27,191

Baker County

4,566

-2.5% 145% 163.0% 73.6% 92.0% 9.9%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017

Flagler County

4,45410,913


28,701

49,832

95,696105,157

125,319

35.2% 52.7% 43.3% 19.6% 11.6% 5.8%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017

Volusia County

169,487

258,762


370,737

443,343494,593

523,405

455,41116.1% 8.0%


17.9% 15.7% 11.0% 8.4%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017

528,862

Duval County

571,003672,971

778,879864,263

936,811

30,034

2.3% 67.0%


63.4% 46.9% 54.3% 20.9%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017

St. John’s County

30,72751,303

83,829

123,135

190,865

229,715

19,535

64.1% 109.2%


58.1% 32.9% 35.5% 9.3%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017

Clay County

32,509

67,052

105,986

140,814

190,865208,549

17,189


9.7%27.1%31.2%33.6%59.5%20.0%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017

20,626

Nassau County

32,894

43,941

57,663

73,31480,456


Regional Context

Regional Drivers Impacting Residential Growth in Nassau “Post-Great Recession growth in Nassau County, particularly in the construction of single-family residential homes, is contributable to both internal and external drivers. Coming out of the Great Recession, the vast majority of buyers and builders looked south to St. Johns County. The depressed economic conditions created a potential for more affordable homes in St. Johns County (as compared to 2004-2007 values), a desired area given the quality of life in St. Johns County, including its No. 1 rated school district. However, the “gold rush” to St. Johns County quickly turned into too much of a good thing with prices rising dramati-cally for new homes and an overabundance of residential developments and available lots coming on-line.

In times past, builder’s focus would have also been in Duval and Clay counties, but both have their challeng-es resulting in builders and buyers looking for an alternative. Nassau offers that alternative by providing one of the top rated school districts in the State, being located in proximity to expanding job centers in north and west Duval, new job growth internal to Nassau County and, in the broad perspective, offering a high quality of life. The combination of these forces and the resulting demand presents a challenge and an opportunity for Nassau County - how to encourage positive growth while elevating the quality of life for all citizens in the County.”

Greg Matovina President, Florida Home Builders AssociationPast President, Northeast Florida Builder’s Association President, Matovina + Company

“While the people residing in western Nassau value their small town, rural lifestyle with its lack of congested roads, low crime and large tracts of land, all that is about to change. Ready or not, western Nassau is in the crosshairs for development. By 2045, Nassau County’s population is expected to increase by 60 percent from 80,456 to 128,750. Pressure is already extending from eastern Nassau County and western Duval County. To the south of Jacksonville, the northern portion of St. Johns County has seen tremendous growth and is expected to be built out within 10 years. The panel agreed that the time is now to start planning before growth occurs. Without plans in place, the area will be ripe for unbridled growth and urban sprawl.”

“Given the County’s push for high-wage manufacturing and industrial jobs, it can be expected that emerging job centers will create demand for housing and services, as evidenced in Jacksonville over the past several decades. As jobs moved south from downtown to Southpoint and the Butler Boulevard corridor, residential development moved to southeast Jacksonville and northern St. Johns County.”

“The greatest barrier to success is, first and foremost, inertia. There must be a sense of urgency to address the influx of development facing western Nassau County, along with strong leadership and governance to bring needed improvements to the area.”

“Conclusion: While development is knocking at Western Nassau’s door, there is time to get ahead of the curve and follow a plan that contains development to appropriate areas, while maintaining the character in others. Doing nothing, however, will assure that development comes without restraint.”

Excerpts from the Urban Land Institutes’ Final Report forthe Western Nassau Technical Assistance Panel January 2018

Documents

Residential Development Tracking Project