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Page 1 of 14 www.merriman.com 1.800.423.4893 When you reach retirement, four major decisions will determine the bulk of your financial future. This article is about two of those decisions: How much income do you need or want from your retirement portfolio? Do you need a fixed stream of income you can count on, or can you tolerate cash flow that goes up and down depending on the success of your investments? You may have saved for decades and invested your money carefully. But when the money must start flowing in the opposite direction – from your portfolio to you – you are suddenly faced with a whole new set of challenging choices. This article is built around six tables of numbers that should be of interest to anyone who is retired or who is planning for retire- ment. These tables, found at the end of this article, are extremely useful to us when we work with clients. Before we dig in, let’s back up for a moment. I mentioned four major financial decisions that will shape your future once you re- tire. In addition to the two we are examining here, the other two are: How will you invest your money? How much risk will you take with your investments? These last two questions are related. You will find our recommendations for how to invest, along with the reasons for those recommendations, in an article called, “The ultimate buy and hold strategy.” That article tells you what kinds of stocks and what kinds of bonds are most likely to give you the best long-term returns, based on all the history we can get our hands on. However, that article leaves out one very important thing. It doesn’t tell you how much of your port - folio should be in stocks and how much in bonds. That is related to risk, which is the topic of another important article called, “Fine tuning your asset allocation.” Taking money from your portfolio Back to the topic at hand. Only you can answer the question of how much you need or want from your portfolio and whether you can handle a variable income instead of a fixed one. Every situation is different, and you will probably get the best answers with the help of a professional financial advisor. Without knowing all your circumstances, I cannot give you the answers that are best for you. Four major financial decisions will shape your future once you retire. Retirement distributions: How much can you afford? Paul Merriman July 2011 In this 2011 update to the article previously titled “How much money can you prudently take out of your investments in retirement,” Paul walks through six different distribution scenarios to show you what your retirement could look like financially.

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Page 1 of 14 www.merriman.com 1.800.423.4893

When you reach retirement, four major decisions will determine the bulk of your financial future. This article is about two of those decisions:

• How much income do you need or want from your retirement portfolio?• Do you need a fixed stream of income you can count on, or can you tolerate cash flow that goes

up and down depending on the success of your investments?

You may have saved for decades and invested your money carefully. But when the money must start flowing in the opposite direction – from your portfolio to you – you are suddenly faced with a whole new set of challenging choices.

This article is built around six tables of numbers that should be of interest to anyone who is retired or who is planning for retire-ment. These tables, found at the end of this article, are extremely useful to us when we work with clients.

Before we dig in, let’s back up for a moment. I mentioned four major financial decisions that will shape your future once you re-tire. In addition to the two we are examining here, the other two are:

• How will you invest your money?• How much risk will you take with your investments?

These last two questions are related. You will find our recommendations for how to invest, along with the reasons for those recommendations, in an article called, “The ultimate buy and hold strategy.” That article tells you what kinds of stocks and what kinds of bonds are most likely to give you the best long-term returns, based on all the history we can get our hands on.

However, that article leaves out one very important thing. It doesn’t tell you how much of your port-folio should be in stocks and how much in bonds. That is related to risk, which is the topic of another important article called, “Fine tuning your asset allocation.”

Taking money from your portfolioBack to the topic at hand. Only you can answer the question of how much you need or want from your portfolio and whether you can handle a variable income instead of a fixed one. Every situation is different, and you will probably get the best answers with the help of a professional financial advisor.

Without knowing all your circumstances, I cannot give you the answers that are best for you.

Four major financial

decisions will shape your future once you retire.

Retirement distributions: How much can you afford?Paul MerrimanJuly 2011

In this 2011 update to the article previously titled “How much money can you prudently take out of your investments in retirement,” Paul walks through six different distribution scenarios to show you what your retirement could look like financially.

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However, in this article I will give you a head start in thinking about the questions, something that should be extremely helpful preparation for a meeting with an advisor.

This article has been a favorite of readers on our web site for quite a few years. It used to be called, “Retirement: When your portfolio starts paying you.” You are reading a 2011 update of a major revision we published in the spring of 2009.

Because of investors’ concern about future inflation, the distributions shown in three of the six tables have been adjusted for actual inflation that occurred during the years in this study. Prior to 2009 we simply assumed a steady rate of inflation, an approach that’s simple on paper but does not reflect real life.

This article describes three possible withdrawal rates: 4 percent, 5 percent and 6 percent. We start with 5 percent, a good ballpark figure for many people. However, 5 percent may be too conservative for some investors and too aggressive for others.

The tables that go with this article show returns of globally diversified portfolios built with Dimensional Fund Advisors mutual funds. These portfolios are similar, but not identical, to those we manage for clients. Returns are net of assumed management fees of 1 percent annually plus applicable transaction costs. Percentages in the top row indicate various combinations of equities and fixed income.

Fixed income vs. variableA major decision you make when you retire is whether you will choose a fixed withdrawal plan or a flexible one. I’ll start by describing the fixed withdrawal plan.

For the purposes of this article, I am going to assume three things:

• You retire with a portfolio worth $1 million;• You need to supplement your other income (Social Security, pension, rental income and so forth)

by taking $50,000 from your portfolio the first year;• You will need to adjust that annual withdrawal every year to keep you protected from inflation.

We will refer to this plan as a fixed distribution schedule. Although the withdrawal each year will change, you will maintain a fixed amount of spending power each year as determined by changes in the Consumer Price Index.

Studying the numbersTable 1 shows the results of doing this starting with 1970, the earliest year for which we have full data.

If you are not used to looking at a table like this, here’s a quick guide. On the far right side is a column showing the actual distribution every year, which is derived from actual inflation in the previous year. For example, inflation in 1970 was 5.66 percent, and that raised the 1971 distribution to $52,830.

The other columns show the year-end values of the portfolio for various asset allocations. The portfolios begin on the left with the most conservative and become more aggressive as you move to the right.

In real life, inflation doesn’t

occur at a steady rate.

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You will notice immediately that there is some white space at the bottom of six of those columns. The reason is simple: those six portfolios ran out of money under these assumptions.

For example, if you had invested exclusively in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, by the end of 1991 your portfolio would have been worth only $182,041 (down from $1 million to start) and just barely able to pay you the $177,604 you needed in 1992 to match the spending power of the $50,000 you took out in 1970. After that, there was almost nothing left.

You will see that the more conservative portfolios on the left also ran out of money at various points. Six of the globally diversified portfolios held up all the way through these 41 years--longer than most people’s retirements--and five of those six had plenty of assets remaining at the end of 2010.

The obvious conclusion is, at least for the pattern of returns and inflation in these years, a prudent investor needed to have at least 50 percent of his or her portfolio in equities.

A balancing actRisk and return are a balancing act, and Table 1 shows it. Investors who were unwilling to risk having a good deal of their portfolios in equities eventually wound up taking the greater risk of running out of money. On the other hand, investors who sought higher long-term returns by owning more equities had to somehow keep their faith during the first few years of retirement. That was not a piece of cake.

Note that the 100 percent global equity portfolio dropped in value to $740,423 at the end of 1974. That had to be frightening for retirees who had started with $1 million. In hindsight, we can see that it all worked out quite well from that point forward, but there was no way to know that in January 1975 as the plan called for removing nearly $69,000 from that portfolio.

Another thing that jumps out at me from Table 1 is the cumulative effect of inflation. It’s very easy to dismiss inflation as a minor financial force, but as the distributions column in this table shows, inflation can be very powerful. What started out as a “mere” $50,000 in 1970 became $101,810 only 10 years later.

Before leaving this table, let me point out one other pretty interesting number that you’ll find at the bottom, labeled “Total Distribution” – nearly $6.5 million. That figure means the six portfolios that survived all these years paid out about $6.48 for every $1 they started with.

In addition, if you adjust the portfolio values at the end of 2010 for cumulative inflation, the globally diversified portfolios with allocations of 60 percent or more began 2011 with more spending power than they had at the start of 1970. Not bad at all, considering all the income they had generated in the meantime.

(Future returns will be different from those shown here, and inflation will be different. So, don’t take these numbers as results you can expect.)

Flexible distributionsNow that you know how to read this table, I’d like to move on to another dimension: a flexible distribution plan. I have long believed that one of the ultimate financial luxuries in life is to have saved enough money to take flexible distributions in retirement.

Inflation can be very powerful.

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The ultimate financial luxury? Having enough

money to take flexible

distributions in retirement.

A flexible distribution is one that changes, but not according to inflation the way we have shown in Table 1. In this case, the yearly distribution goes up and down according to the value of the portfolio. In other words, it automatically does what most smart retirees would naturally want to do if they could: take out more money after good investment returns and scale back on withdrawals when the portfolio is suffering.

Recall for a moment the first five years in Table 1. The retiree who followed that plan got more money every year, regardless of what the stock market was doing. His withdrawals were insulated from the big bad bear market of 1973 and 1974.

Table 2 shows a flexible distribution plan that also started out with a $50,000 withdrawal in 1970. But this time, subsequent distributions began with a drop, reflecting the market. Eventually the flexible distributions regained that $50,000 level, but in the meantime our theoretical retiree had to live on less real money than he had started with.

The layout of Table 2 is slightly different from that of Table 1, because each year’s distribution was different for each portfolio allocation.

You can see that in 1975, the distribution in each column was at its low point, reflecting the stock market’s dismal performance in the previous two years. From there they went up, though gradually.

By 1987, flexible-plan distributions (Table 2) were higher than fixed-plan ones (Table 1) in the 50 percent and 60 percent global equity portfolios, and they stayed ahead from that year forward.

However, for the second through 17th years of retirement, investors in the flexible plan had to make do with less purchasing power than they had in 1970.

You call that an ultimate luxury?

You may be wondering why anybody would be willing to embark on a flexible plan like this. It’s a very good question.

Recall what I said earlier: “I have long believed that one of the ultimate financial luxuries in life is to have saved enough money to take flexible distributions in retirement.”

For example, imagine you retired needing $50,000 a year from your portfolio, but instead of $1 million, your portfolio was worth $1.5 million at the start of 1970. In that case, every distribution would be 1.5 times as great as shown in Table 2.

Your first-year distribution would give you 50 percent more money than you really needed, allowing you to spend money on some of the extras you are likely to desire in your first year of retirement.

Using the 60 percent equity globally diversified portfolio for an example, the low point of your distributions would be (again in 1975) $66,438, or 1.5 times the $44,292 shown in Table 2. Table 1 tells us that in 1975 it required $68,891 to match the spending power of $50,000 in 1970. If all you could spend that year was $66,438, you would have tightened your belt a little bit but not a great deal.

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And two years later, in 1977, you would have $91,299 to spend in the flexible plan. That’s comfortably above the $77,254 it would have taken to keep up with your $50,000 cost of living plus inflation. From that point forward, your flexible distributions would have keep going up nicely.

At least as important, your portfolio would have easily survived for 41 years, longer than most retirees are likely to live. Remember, this seemingly abundant retirement was possible because you had saved 1.5 times as much as you really needed.

Fixed vs. variableHere’s my take on fixed versus variable. If you have saved more than enough money to meet your needs with an inflation-adjusted withdrawal rate, you may be able to afford a flexible distribution plan where what you take out of the portfolio is determined by your investment results instead of by inflation.

Based on the years in this study, this could give you peace of mind knowing you are less likely to run out of money. It may leave more for your heirs, and it is likely to give you more spending power at some point in your retirement years. However, exactly when that happens, or whether it happens at all, is entirely dependent on patterns of market return that are highly unpredictable.

My advice, therefore, is to save more than you think you will need. I doubt very much that I will ever get a call from you complaining about the awful trouble you are in because you took my advice and saved too much money. If I do get that call, we will have an interesting conversation.

Take out more? Take out less?There is nothing cast in stone about taking 5 percent from a retirement portfolio every year. As we saw in Tables 1 and 2, the withdrawal rate would have worked well for many combinations of assets in the period starting in 1970. Each combination in Table 2 ended 2010 with more purchasing power than it started with 41 years earlier.

Many people want to take out more. So, I’m going to show you the hypothetical result of that in Table 3, based on a $1 million starting portfolio value and an initial withdrawal of $60,000.

Other people, for various reasons, may want to be more conservative and take out less. You will find that true in Table 4, based on an initial withdrawal of $40,000, or 4 percent of the initial $1 million.

Before you look at more of these tables, can you guess what they will look like? If you withdrew money at a rate of 6 percent instead of 5 percent, would you expect the portfolio values after a few years to be more than in Table 1? Or less?

Right! The portfolio values would logically be lower after some years of withdrawing money at a higher rate. That’s just what you see in Table 3 . In fact, you can see only three of those portfolios survived all the way to the end of 2010. And one of those three, the 80 percent global equity mix, obviously was in its last days; it had less than $1 million left from which to pay out more than $300,000 a year.

My advice: save more

than you think you will need.

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That leaves only the 90 percent and 100 percent columns in the long-term running. Both of them represent portfolios involving more risk than I think is appropriate for most retirees. Remember, this is a plan for people who really need that $60,000 a year and who don’t have much tolerance for failure.

For people with relatively short life expectancies and no burning desire to leave money to their heirs, this might work. But, for most people, I don’t think it’s the right plan.

Now turn to Table 4 , in which (as you no doubt guessed without looking at it) almost all the portfolios held up very well for many years. The difference is the low withdrawal rate, akin to “sipping” from the portfolio instead of “drinking” or “gulping”. Over 41 years, all the portfolios with 30 percent or more in equity, even the undiversified Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, survived just fine.

For investors who can meet their needs while taking out only 4 percent of their assets and who want to leave significant assets to their heirs, this could be a very desirable plan.

Table 5 and Table 6 show the results from flexible distribution plans at 6 percent and 4 percent. You now know how to read these tables, and you can draw your own conclusions. Again, I believe flexible distributions are most appropriate for people who have over-saved.

If you assume starting portfolios of $1.5 million, instead of the ones shown here, you can multiply each distribution by 1.5 and see that in most cases those retirees would have had a good ride.

Lessons from these numbersIf this discussion leaves you with only one lesson, I hope it is the value of having more money, instead of less, when you retire.

Of course we don’t always have a choice about when we retire. In those cases our resources are whatever they are, and our challenge becomes making the most of them. These tables will help you think about how to do that based on your own circumstances.

If you are ready (or think you’re nearly ready) to retire, the tables in this article may help you form a general idea of what your retirement could look like financially.

One simple way for many people to improve their financial outlook in retirement is to work a few extra years.

This has at least four important benefits. First, additional years on the job will let you add more to your savings. Second, your portfolio has more time to potentially grow before it has to start paying you. Third, after your retirement your portfolio will have fewer years it must make payouts to you, meaning those payouts can be larger. Fourth, if you delay taking Social Security, your payments will be permanently higher.

Finally, if you are a young person with many years before you plan to retire, I hope you will consider ramping up your savings plan, now that you know more about how retirement income really works.

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198,70

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2,98

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7,62

78,

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203,75

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2,94

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378

6,59

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055

12,5

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313

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19,7

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109,

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99,

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13,3

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03,7

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181,

600

6,52

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311

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17,0

75,9

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19,7

65,8

5027

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34,4

74,8

1728

6,64

71.50

%

6,77

1,47

6

Tabl

e 1.

Mod

erat

e Fi

xed

Dist

ribut

ion

Sche

dule

Initi

al In

vest

men

t: $1

mill

ion.

$50

K is

with

draw

n ea

ch y

ear a

djus

ted

for i

nfla

tion.

Man

agem

ent f

ees p

lus t

rans

actio

n co

sts i

nclu

ded.

Tota

l Dis

trib

utio

n

Page 8: Retirement distributions: How much can you afford?paulmerriman.com/2014-new-site/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/... · Retirement distributions: How much can you afford? Paul Merriman

Page

8 o

f 14

w

ww

.mer

riman

.com

1.

800.

423.

4893

Year

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701,

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066

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909,

726

50,0

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988,

247

50,0

0050

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1971

1,10

4,34

950

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100,

387

1,10

7,93

949

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99,5

701,

110,

907

48,7

5398

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1,11

5,66

645

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95,4

861,

073,

257

49,4

1299

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1972

1,18

5,93

355

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155,

604

1,21

4,92

455

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154,

967

1,24

3,38

255

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154,

299

1,34

9,95

455

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151,

270

1,21

3,07

153

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153,

075

1973

1,06

3,61

959

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214,

901

1,06

4,74

260

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215,

713

1,06

3,71

162

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601

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5,83

153

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653

747,

105

52,1

2527

0,89

268

7,05

249

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262,

899

1975

1,10

0,37

347

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315,

457

1,09

9,68

045

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314,

830

1,09

4,36

144

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313,

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3,76

837

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308,

247

895,

582

34,3

5329

7,25

219

761,

195,

149

55,0

1937

0,47

61,

208,

489

54,9

8436

9,81

41,

217,

320

54,7

1836

8,66

31,

205,

374

51,6

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9,93

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44,7

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119

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60,8

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9,52

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592

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394,

716

1978

1,36

3,53

663

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493,

716

1,44

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875

1,52

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167

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137

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3,62

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3,68

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405

97,9

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264

52,9

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321

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6,82

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4974

3,93

22,

299,

017

118,

370

799,

320

1,20

2,61

966

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607,

691

1982

1,73

9,11

976

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785,

319

1,86

8,75

183

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810,

144

1,99

5,46

689

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2008

4,94

3,58

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5,99

8,22

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9,24

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7,14

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360

247,

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7,27

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367,

104

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215

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0,81

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15,1

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537,

278

230,

450

7,37

0,97

120

105,

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669

272,

468

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373

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5

Tabl

e 2.

Mod

erat

e Fl

exib

le D

istr

ibut

ion

Sche

dule

Initi

al In

vest

men

t: $1

mill

ion.

5%

of a

ccou

nt v

alue

is w

ithdr

awn

at th

e be

ginn

ing

of e

ach

year

. Man

agem

ent f

ees p

lus t

rans

actio

n co

sts i

nclu

ded.

40%

Glo

bal E

quity

/ 60

% B

onds

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Page 9: Retirement distributions: How much can you afford?paulmerriman.com/2014-new-site/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/... · Retirement distributions: How much can you afford? Paul Merriman

Page

9 o

f 14

w

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1.

800.

423.

4893

100%

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me

10%

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S&P

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Infla

tion

1970

1,06

1,65

01,

045,

489

1,02

9,32

81,

013,

167

997,

006

980,

845

964,

684

948,

523

932,

362

916,

201

900,

040

977,

845

60,000

5.66

%19

711,

059,

919

1,06

5,24

71,

069,

835

1,07

3,68

11,

076,

699

1,07

9,06

31,

080,

686

1,08

1,56

81,

081,

709

1,08

1,10

91,

079,

768

1,04

5,37

963

,396

3.27

%19

721,

028,

415

1,05

7,78

91,

086,

615

1,11

4,84

11,

142,

313

1,16

9,17

41,

195,

276

1,22

0,56

51,

244,

987

1,26

8,49

01,

291,

021

1,16

5,86

065

,466

3.41

%19

7399

0,70

099

9,27

01,

006,

008

1,01

1,46

01,

014,

400

1,01

5,56

81,

014,

871

1,01

2,77

71,

008,

360

1,00

2,10

199

4,01

893

7,10

867

,696

8.71

%19

7497

1,72

795

2,53

893

1,07

190

7,86

888

1,97

385

4,29

182

4,90

179

4,37

276

2,07

572

8,60

269

4,07

763

5,04

673

,590

12.34%

1975

947,

527

961,

011

970,

387

976,

029

976,

462

972,

719

964,

590

952,

569

935,

794

914,

826

889,

623

757,

927

82,669

6.94

%19

7693

2,59

095

9,55

498

2,31

91,

001,

133

1,01

4,15

11,

022,

348

1,02

5,30

21,

023,

411

1,01

5,47

71,

001,

980

982,

585

829,

197

88,404

4.86

%19

7785

5,31

690

4,14

894

9,82

099

2,37

71,

029,

301

1,06

1,35

61,

087,

693

1,10

8,39

91,

121,

660

1,12

7,62

31,

125,

357

683,

618

92,704

6.70

%19

7876

3,52

083

6,87

890

9,67

498

1,75

91,

050,

099

1,11

4,90

41,

174,

814

1,23

0,13

11,

276,

700

1,31

4,72

31,

342,

328

623,

139

98,916

9.02

%19

7968

6,92

277

0,55

485

4,95

493

9,82

11,

022,

011

1,10

2,12

31,

177,

405

1,24

9,25

21,

311,

711

1,36

5,88

21,

408,

321

610,

242

107,83

613

.29%

1980

592,

349

694,

400

800,

920

911,

674

1,02

3,06

51,

136,

202

1,24

6,50

11,

356,

588

1,45

8,26

81,

551,

761

1,63

3,26

764

6,24

212

2,17

212

.52%

1981

491,

862

598,

986

709,

596

823,

278

936,

163

1,04

9,95

31,

159,

269

1,26

6,89

51,

364,

359

1,45

2,04

91,

526,

241

483,

804

137,46

48.92

%19

8242

0,73

054

8,05

767

7,18

680

7,34

393

3,95

41,

059,

003

1,17

6,80

31,

290,

092

1,38

9,22

71,

474,

990

1,54

3,53

640

5,59

914

9,72

93.83

%19

8328

0,67

442

5,80

257

9,06

273

9,75

890

2,57

51,

069,

630

1,23

4,58

01,

399,

660

1,55

2,38

71,

692,

726

1,81

4,66

630

6,45

115

5,46

33.79

%19

8413

2,22

329

4,33

446

3,56

263

9,14

281

5,01

399

3,38

81,

168,

528

1,34

1,11

61,

498,

747

1,64

0,66

51,

761,

529

154,

187

161,35

63.95

%19

8514

7,88

435

6,07

458

0,14

481

2,87

81,

057,

152

1,30

6,45

91,

561,

336

1,80

3,52

62,

032,

099

2,23

7,31

316

7,72

83.80

%19

8620

9,55

347

9,93

177

1,06

41,

087,

020

1,42

2,38

61,

775,

655

2,12

4,49

32,

465,

850

2,78

6,77

717

4,09

91.10

%19

8732

,993

321,

889

641,

543

997,

256

1,38

6,45

01,

805,

449

2,23

0,72

92,

658,

153

3,07

1,91

717

6,01

14.43

%19

8815

1,28

851

6,69

293

6,77

61,

412,

719

1,94

1,16

62,

494,

497

3,06

8,52

33,

642,

814

183,81

64.42

%19

8937

4,31

787

0,09

51,

443,

499

2,09

0,40

82,

779,

987

3,50

7,53

84,

247,

676

191,93

94.65

%19

9016

9,44

164

5,89

71,

175,

577

1,74

8,10

12,

331,

647

2,91

7,46

53,

480,

607

200,85

96.11

%19

9151

9,52

01,

173,

644

1,89

8,99

62,

655,

212

3,43

1,78

14,

195,

431

213,12

43.06

%19

9231

1,40

399

4,96

91,

752,

713

2,54

0,46

63,

345,

628

4,13

2,74

521

9,65

52.90

%19

9397

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921,

909

1,86

8,68

32,

884,

938

3,95

5,53

55,

034,

945

226,02

62.75

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9468

4,06

61,

641,

790

2,68

4,63

93,

796,

529

4,93

0,92

423

2,23

92.67

%19

9551

0,70

61,

620,

057

2,83

2,54

24,

127,

351

5,44

9,18

023

8,45

12.54

%19

9628

5,79

11,

508,

834

2,87

6,09

94,

363,

887

5,91

0,69

824

4,50

43.32

%19

9731

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1,32

1,97

42,

767,

626

4,33

9,03

85,

969,

023

252,62

71.70

%19

981,

112,

119

2,62

4,63

44,

260,

467

5,94

5,81

725

6,92

81.61

%19

9996

7,81

12,

757,

999

4,76

7,49

36,

912,

459

261,06

92.68

%20

0070

4,72

42,

492,

962

4,45

2,04

06,

487,

804

268,07

83.39

%20

0142

6,68

42,

214,

320

4,14

5,23

96,

116,

068

277,15

71.55

%20

0213

8,38

71,

849,

375

3,62

7,68

15,

362,

440

281,45

82.38

%20

032,

167,

109

4,80

4,87

17,

540,

422

288,14

81.88

%20

042,

243,

570

5,51

6,57

99,

021,

071

293,56

43.26

%20

052,

151,

180

5,86

6,37

99,

926,

495

303,12

13.42

%20

062,

200,

312

6,80

0,47

711

,996

,511

313,47

42.54

%20

071,

943,

473

6,68

9,67

811

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321,43

94.08

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081,

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4,04

5,82

36,

852,

931

334,55

70.09

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3,06

54,

966,

546

8,96

8,83

833

4,86

32.72

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1075

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Page 10: Retirement distributions: How much can you afford?paulmerriman.com/2014-new-site/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/... · Retirement distributions: How much can you afford? Paul Merriman

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10

of 1

4

ww

w.m

errim

an.c

om

1.80

0.42

3.48

93

100%

Fi

xed

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me

10%

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20

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40

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Equ

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S&P

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Infla

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1970

1,08

4,50

11,

067,

992

1,05

1,48

31,

034,

974

1,01

8,46

51,

001,

956

985,

447

968,

938

952,

430

935,

921

919,

412

998,

650

40,000

5.66

%19

711,

106,

895

1,11

2,86

01,

118,

067

1,12

2,51

81,

126,

211

1,12

9,14

81,

131,

237

1,13

2,66

01,

133,

325

1,13

3,23

41,

132,

386

1,09

3,32

142

,264

3.27

%19

721,

100,

458

1,13

2,17

11,

163,

350

1,19

3,93

91,

223,

884

1,25

3,13

21,

281,

522

1,30

9,20

91,

336,

036

1,36

1,94

81,

386,

891

1,24

8,86

243

,644

3.41

%19

731,

089,

182

1,09

8,03

41,

104,

963

1,10

9,95

21,

113,

490

1,11

4,56

41,

113,

579

1,11

1,15

01,

106,

340

1,09

9,58

61,

090,

903

1,02

7,19

345

,131

8.71

%19

741,

102,

554

1,07

9,88

51,

055,

328

1,02

7,87

699

8,75

796

7,18

593

3,73

889

9,13

086

2,72

782

4,63

978

5,98

071

9,33

649

,060

12.34%

1975

1,11

7,52

61,

132,

749

1,14

4,65

21,

151,

208

1,15

3,48

61,

150,

484

1,14

2,57

71,

130,

383

1,11

3,12

51,

090,

632

1,06

4,25

691

1,39

355

,113

6.94

%19

761,

150,

437

1,18

2,15

61,

210,

604

1,23

3,34

51,

251,

379

1,26

3,36

31,

269,

511

1,27

0,35

11,

264,

767

1,25

1,64

61,

233,

818

1,05

5,75

958

,936

4.86

%19

771,

109,

989

1,16

9,96

31,

228,

563

1,28

1,78

51,

330,

859

1,37

3,90

11,

410,

715

1,44

1,49

81,

464,

497

1,47

7,85

51,

484,

600

922,

597

61,803

6.70

%19

781,

055,

441

1,14

8,93

11,

245,

091

1,33

8,28

51,

430,

509

1,51

8,13

31,

601,

430

1,67

9,05

21,

748,

771

1,80

7,51

21,

858,

381

912,

969

65,944

9.02

%19

791,

031,

722

1,14

0,23

81,

253,

298

1,36

4,90

41,

477,

143

1,58

6,00

71,

691,

672

1,79

2,11

81,

885,

497

1,96

7,68

22,

041,

565

996,

038

71,891

13.29%

1980

998,

529

1,13

6,27

51,

283,

746

1,43

4,53

51,

590,

925

1,74

8,29

81,

906,

637

2,06

3,29

52,

215,

656

2,35

8,09

32,

493,

551

1,21

0,98

881

,448

12.52%

1981

983,

251

1,12

6,55

21,

278,

405

1,43

2,34

31,

589,

733

1,74

6,48

41,

902,

101

2,05

3,52

32,

199,

228

2,33

2,15

22,

456,

044

1,06

4,39

991

,642

8.92

%19

821,

091,

135

1,25

7,23

21,

430,

317

1,60

2,94

91,

775,

560

1,94

4,20

22,

107,

793

2,26

2,51

92,

407,

462

2,53

5,05

92,

648,

809

1,17

1,09

199

,819

3.83

%19

831,

051,

413

1,25

7,45

61,

479,

255

1,70

8,86

31,

946,

377

2,18

7,91

82,

431,

763

2,67

2,22

62,

908,

442

3,12

8,76

53,

337,

115

1,30

7,77

210

3,64

23.79

%19

841,

063,

383

1,28

9,75

81,

531,

054

1,77

8,56

62,

031,

416

2,28

5,92

62,

540,

656

2,78

8,01

73,

028,

104

3,24

7,60

83,

451,

461

1,27

5,41

010

7,57

13.95

%19

851,

107,

113

1,40

0,15

51,

722,

624

2,06

3,76

02,

423,

844

2,79

8,39

63,

186,

030

3,57

5,38

63,

967,

187

4,34

1,43

84,

704,

124

1,53

7,92

611

1,81

93.80

%19

861,

109,

436

1,46

8,78

41,

875,

866

2,31

9,92

92,

804,

143

3,32

2,18

73,

874,

394

4,44

6,52

15,

039,

640

5,62

7,29

06,

216,

371

1,68

4,48

511

6,06

61.10

%19

871,

013,

019

1,40

2,40

91,

853,

446

2,35

7,45

42,

918,

984

3,53

2,46

64,

199,

865

4,90

6,90

35,

655,

383

6,41

5,47

27,

195,

057

1,64

9,11

811

7,34

04.43

%19

8893

6,44

01,

374,

937

1,89

6,88

42,

497,

644

3,18

5,53

73,

956,

611

4,81

6,47

85,

751,

881

6,76

6,57

57,

826,

544

8,94

2,03

11,

783,

181

122,54

44.42

%19

8990

2,49

61,

408,

277

2,01

9,82

42,

735,

001

3,56

5,68

34,

509,

400

5,57

5,49

86,

750,

701

8,04

2,27

69,

411,

166

10,8

71,2

832,

176,

464

127,96

04.65

%19

9082

9,64

71,

350,

429

1,95

8,98

52,

647,

203

3,41

8,20

34,

261,

938

5,17

9,05

36,

149,

298

7,17

1,58

48,

203,

431

9,25

0,69

81,

977,

755

133,90

66.11

%19

9177

9,87

01,

391,

251

2,12

1,51

62,

965,

373

3,92

8,70

45,

002,

214

6,19

0,19

47,

470,

541

8,84

3,91

310

,258

,677

11,7

22,4

332,

396,

460

142,08

33.06

%19

9267

0,39

61,

318,

020

2,09

0,72

82,

981,

200

3,99

3,85

55,

117,

479

6,35

5,53

67,

684,

313

9,10

3,50

410

,558

,093

12,0

54,5

452,

422,

605

146,43

72.90

%19

9356

1,51

81,

288,

953

2,18

5,21

53,

250,

632

4,49

4,69

85,

911,

715

7,51

1,97

39,

273,

449

11,2

01,3

1713

,229

,898

15,3

69,2

322,

498,

881

150,68

42.75

%19

9438

7,76

81,

093,

197

1,97

5,61

73,

037,

971

4,29

0,55

05,

731,

646

7,37

4,39

59,

200,

152

11,2

16,1

5513

,358

,523

15,6

40,3

582,

374,

699

154,82

62.67

%19

9526

1,12

31,

074,

144

2,09

7,32

73,

332,

370

4,78

8,99

66,

465,

844

8,37

7,79

010

,503

,768

12,8

50,5

3515

,344

,402

18,0

01,7

113,

045,

069

158,96

72.54

%19

9697

,963

937,

618

2,01

9,85

33,

352,

344

4,94

8,97

86,

816,

309

8,97

7,55

611

,416

,753

14,1

46,6

4317

,093

,512

20,2

80,7

673,

547,

080

163,00

23.32

%19

9781

3,24

81,

964,

158

3,38

2,27

35,

078,

357

7,05

8,24

39,

345,

375

11,9

20,3

9814

,795

,598

17,8

93,1

8321

,237

,032

4,50

5,99

316

8,41

81.70

%19

9868

2,67

51,

909,

814

3,41

8,22

05,

212,

608

7,29

5,84

69,

689,

625

12,3

68,1

0515

,342

,104

18,5

27,8

3021

,947

,755

5,57

3,53

617

1,28

51.61

%19

9950

8,45

11,

785,

259

3,42

0,37

95,

434,

063

7,84

8,68

210

,708

,876

14,0

03,2

7117

,765

,986

21,9

17,7

4426

,500

,435

6,53

5,15

117

4,04

62.68

%20

0035

8,41

31,

738,

173

3,47

4,11

75,

566,

795

8,02

3,51

810

,872

,987

14,0

82,8

6317

,671

,823

21,5

41,7

9325

,717

,497

5,77

8,23

817

8,71

93.39

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0118

1,48

31,

633,

716

3,44

1,57

55,

590,

261

8,07

6,72

010

,919

,406

14,0

73,3

5517

,549

,757

21,2

40,7

9525

,163

,217

4,92

8,81

318

4,77

11.55

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021,

561,

303

3,45

8,80

75,

638,

423

8,07

4,88

410

,764

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13,6

39,4

3916

,693

,152

19,8

04,1

2222

,974

,359

3,69

3,08

418

7,63

92.38

%20

031,

527,

854

3,80

8,69

56,

606,

964

9,92

7,92

813

,801

,225

18,1

67,2

8823

,045

,166

28,2

84,0

0633

,894

,630

4,50

5,44

319

2,09

91.88

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041,

427,

728

3,96

4,89

57,

178,

789

11,1

06,5

5715

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,741

21,2

59,1

1327

,505

,522

34,3

97,2

1541

,970

,230

4,77

8,32

019

5,70

93.26

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051,

265,

476

3,95

1,41

67,

423,

116

11,7

42,9

6817

,002

,591

23,1

98,6

8130

,418

,893

38,5

20,8

0947

,569

,454

4,80

0,56

020

2,08

03.42

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061,

121,

967

4,08

1,89

78,

040,

096

13,1

15,8

1319

,469

,586

27,1

63,1

5536

,364

,342

46,9

66,6

8659

,110

,009

5,31

7,29

120

8,98

32.54

%20

0796

9,76

84,

137,

230

8,33

3,95

813

,660

,796

20,2

65,3

4628

,189

,882

37,5

83,0

8748

,305

,938

60,5

13,6

665,

383,

357

214,29

24.08

%20

0872

3,95

93,

636,

677

7,15

0,39

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,191

,823

15,7

11,8

3520

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,484

25,6

30,9

3930

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35,4

83,2

353,

251,

153

223,03

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9,17

93,

835,

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8,04

4,16

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19,1

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33,1

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48,5

51,4

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829,

207

223,24

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1033

0,41

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955,

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8,70

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21,6

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38,7

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5248

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58,4

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Page 11: Retirement distributions: How much can you afford?paulmerriman.com/2014-new-site/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/... · Retirement distributions: How much can you afford? Paul Merriman

Page

11

of 1

4

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1.80

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Year

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0,04

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60,0

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711,

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870

59,8

2011

9,82

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084,

471

58,8

5111

8,85

11,

087,

376

57,8

8111

7,88

11,

092,

035

54,0

0211

4,00

21,

050,

781

58,6

7111

8,67

119

721,

147,

730

64,8

5218

4,67

31,

175,

882

65,0

6818

3,91

91,

203,

425

65,2

4318

3,12

41,

306,

573

65,5

2217

9,52

41,

175,

165

63,0

4718

1,71

819

731,

018,

403

68,8

6425

3,53

61,

019,

094

70,5

5325

4,47

21,

018,

578

72,2

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5,32

999

8,26

978

,394

257,

919

942,

647

70,5

1025

2,22

719

7489

7,57

261

,104

314,

641

868,

910

61,1

4631

5,61

883

9,21

461

,115

316,

444

707,

733

59,8

9631

7,81

565

1,64

556

,559

308,

786

1975

1,03

1,17

253

,854

368,

495

1,03

0,13

552

,135

367,

752

1,02

5,72

950

,353

366,

797

968,

861

42,4

6436

0,27

984

0,48

639

,099

347,

885

1976

1,10

7,45

461

,870

430,

365

1,12

0,00

861

,808

429,

560

1,12

8,82

861

,544

428,

340

1,11

7,57

358

,132

418,

411

978,

478

50,4

2939

8,31

419

771,

163,

969

66,4

4749

6,81

21,

203,

108

67,2

0049

6,76

11,

238,

732

67,7

3049

6,07

01,

329,

937

67,0

5448

5,46

585

3,73

658

,709

457,

023

1978

1,23

6,17

369

,838

566,

651

1,31

1,96

872

,186

568,

947

1,38

5,44

874

,324

570,

394

1,63

6,82

379

,796

565,

261

855,

269

51,2

2450

8,24

719

791,

262,

329

74,1

7064

0,82

11,

351,

414

78,7

1864

7,66

51,

438,

889

83,1

2765

3,52

11,

757,

207

98,2

0966

3,47

195

2,07

251

,316

559,

563

1980

1,35

1,51

975

,740

716,

561

1,47

5,07

181

,085

728,

750

1,60

0,48

086

,333

739,

854

2,09

9,79

010

5,43

276

8,90

31,

184,

980

57,1

2461

6,68

719

811,

346,

196

81,0

9179

7,65

21,

460,

521

88,5

0481

7,25

41,

575,

534

96,0

2983

5,88

32,

015,

996

125,

987

894,

890

1,05

9,20

371

,099

687,

786

1982

1,50

7,13

180

,772

878,

424

1,61

9,66

887

,631

904,

886

1,73

0,45

194

,532

930,

415

2,12

7,99

512

0,96

01,

015,

850

1,20

8,81

463

,552

751,

338

1983

1,64

8,45

290

,428

968,

852

1,80

8,61

997

,180

1,00

2,06

61,

971,

901

103,

827

1,03

4,24

22,

619,

572

127,

680

1,14

3,53

01,

392,

106

72,5

2982

3,86

719

841,

710,

751

98,9

071,

067,

759

1,86

6,78

710

8,51

71,

110,

583

2,02

3,71

111

8,31

41,

152,

556

2,62

8,67

415

7,17

41,

300,

704

1,39

0,58

083

,526

907,

394

1985

2,02

9,34

610

2,64

51,

170,

404

2,25

6,51

011

2,00

71,

222,

590

2,49

2,16

512

1,42

31,

273,

979

3,47

6,30

515

7,72

01,

458,

425

1,72

7,66

283

,435

990,

828

1986

2,31

5,44

212

1,76

11,

292,

164

2,62

4,21

613

5,39

11,

357,

981

2,95

2,83

414

9,53

01,

423,

509

4,42

2,50

220

8,57

81,

667,

003

1,92

3,96

410

3,66

01,

094,

488

1987

2,36

2,19

213

8,92

71,

431,

091

2,71

5,96

115

7,45

31,

515,

434

3,09

9,36

217

7,17

01,

600,

679

4,89

9,57

126

5,35

01,

932,

353

1,90

3,12

611

5,43

81,

209,

926

1988

2,52

6,49

314

1,73

21,

572,

823

2,95

8,97

216

2,95

81,

678,

391

3,43

7,43

118

5,96

21,

786,

640

5,81

7,42

029

3,97

42,

226,

327

2,08

9,64

611

4,18

81,

324,

113

1989

2,76

6,74

115

1,59

01,

724,

412

3,27

2,13

917

7,53

81,

855,

929

3,83

8,02

120

6,24

61,

992,

886

6,73

8,81

034

9,04

52,

575,

373

2,58

2,83

212

5,37

91,

449,

492

1990

2,58

7,57

816

6,00

41,

890,

417

2,99

2,39

919

6,32

82,

052,

258

3,42

9,87

523

0,28

12,

223,

168

5,45

3,32

340

4,32

92,

979,

701

2,35

0,83

415

4,97

01,

604,

462

1991

2,91

2,95

315

5,25

52,

045,

671

3,41

0,60

917

9,54

42,

231,

802

3,95

7,14

220

5,79

32,

428,

960

6,59

0,16

532

7,19

93,

306,

900

2,88

4,86

114

1,05

01,

745,

512

1992

2,88

8,04

517

4,77

72,

220,

448

3,37

4,58

620

4,63

72,

436,

438

3,90

6,79

723

7,42

92,

666,

389

6,44

5,66

839

5,41

03,

702,

310

2,91

9,76

817

3,09

21,

918,

604

1993

3,17

0,91

817

3,28

32,

393,

731

3,77

0,39

020

2,47

52,

638,

913

4,44

0,30

423

4,40

82,

900,

796

7,81

6,27

038

6,74

04,

089,

050

3,01

8,76

017

5,18

62,

093,

790

1994

2,94

3,16

119

0,25

52,

583,

986

3,52

3,99

022

6,22

32,

865,

137

4,17

8,46

426

6,41

83,

167,

215

7,54

9,07

146

8,97

64,

558,

027

2,87

4,73

118

1,12

62,

274,

916

1995

3,20

2,45

517

6,59

02,

760,

576

3,83

8,02

421

1,43

93,

076,

576

4,55

4,15

425

0,70

83,

417,

922

8,24

6,59

045

2,94

45,

010,

971

3,71

3,68

517

2,48

42,

447,

399

1996

3,21

6,36

819

2,14

72,

952,

723

3,89

6,25

623

0,28

13,

306,

858

4,67

2,16

727

3,24

93,

691,

172

8,80

9,00

849

4,79

55,

505,

766

4,29

6,35

322

2,82

12,

670,

221

1997

3,20

7,30

519

2,98

23,

145,

705

3,88

2,77

523

3,77

53,

540,

633

4,65

2,80

428

0,33

03,

971,

502

8,74

0,36

752

8,54

06,

034,

307

5,38

6,08

925

7,78

12,

928,

002

1998

3,19

8,03

119

2,43

83,

338,

144

3,86

0,57

123

2,96

63,

773,

600

4,61

2,83

827

9,16

84,

250,

670

8,55

6,72

652

4,42

26,

558,

729

6,50

9,87

032

3,16

53,

251,

167

1999

3,23

6,85

019

1,88

23,

530,

026

3,99

3,00

623

1,63

44,

005,

234

4,87

2,70

127

6,77

04,

527,

440

9,78

5,41

851

3,40

47,

072,

132

7,40

6,33

139

0,59

23,

641,

759

2000

3,21

7,83

119

4,21

13,

724,

237

3,92

0,06

623

9,58

04,

244,

814

4,72

2,80

129

2,36

24,

819,

802

8,98

4,94

058

7,12

57,

659,

257

6,32

8,67

844

4,38

04,

086,

139

2001

3,13

6,68

319

3,07

03,

917,

306

3,79

0,43

423

5,20

44,

480,

018

4,52

8,85

028

3,36

85,

103,

170

8,32

0,70

953

9,09

68,

198,

354

5,24

2,06

237

9,72

14,

465,

860

2002

3,07

1,81

818

8,20

14,

105,

507

3,64

0,30

322

7,42

64,

707,

444

4,26

3,43

627

1,73

15,

374,

901

7,19

1,58

349

9,24

38,

697,

596

3,83

8,25

031

4,52

44,

780,

384

2003

3,49

6,21

018

4,30

94,

289,

816

4,30

1,49

021

8,41

84,

925,

862

5,22

2,43

025

5,80

65,

630,

708

10,0

50,6

8043

1,49

59,

129,

091

4,64

3,10

323

0,29

55,

010,

679

2004

3,67

3,37

120

9,77

34,

499,

589

4,60

6,72

325

8,08

95,

183,

952

5,69

7,72

131

3,34

65,

944,

053

11,7

64,0

2460

3,04

19,

732,

132

4,83

9,05

927

8,58

65,

289,

265

2005

3,66

7,64

122

0,40

24,

719,

991

4,65

6,27

527

6,40

35,

460,

355

5,82

7,84

134

1,86

36,

285,

917

12,5

91,3

5170

5,84

110

,437

,974

4,77

1,68

629

0,34

45,

579,

608

2006

3,83

5,50

722

0,05

84,

940,

050

4,96

9,66

727

9,37

75,

739,

732

6,34

4,64

434

9,67

06,

635,

587

14,7

68,9

7075

5,48

111

,193

,455

5,19

4,31

528

6,30

15,

865,

909

2007

3,83

2,88

123

0,13

05,

170,

180

4,93

9,68

129

8,18

06,

037,

912

6,27

1,38

838

0,67

97,

016,

266

14,2

51,9

4788

6,13

812

,079

,593

5,15

0,90

931

1,65

96,

177,

568

2008

3,17

0,61

722

9,97

35,

400,

153

3,86

1,97

429

6,38

16,

334,

292

4,61

7,24

337

6,28

37,

392,

549

7,87

7,74

585

5,11

712

,934

,710

3,05

0,51

130

9,05

56,

486,

623

2009

3,45

3,34

519

0,23

75,

590,

390

4,33

9,06

523

1,71

86,

566,

011

5,34

5,68

127

7,03

57,

669,

584

10,1

91,0

2547

2,66

513

,407

,374

3,62

6,32

118

3,03

16,

669,

653

2010

3,61

0,02

620

7,20

15,

797,

591

4,60

2,77

826

0,34

46,

826,

355

5,75

1,87

632

0,74

17,

990,

324

11,5

75,4

1961

1,46

214

,018

,836

3,92

2,10

921

7,57

96,

887,

233

Tabl

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Agg

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Dis

trib

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itial

Inve

stm

ent:

$1 m

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f acc

ount

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with

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the

begi

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cost

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quity

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Glo

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quity

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x W

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Page 12: Retirement distributions: How much can you afford?paulmerriman.com/2014-new-site/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/... · Retirement distributions: How much can you afford? Paul Merriman

Page

12

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1,22

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615,

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106,

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544

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1982

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674,

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575

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696,

776

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7,09

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170,

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6,41

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2006

8,81

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9,39

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550,

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2008

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4,66

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263,

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1,14

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500,

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Tabl

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Sche

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Initi

al In

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men

t: $1

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of a

ccou

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Page 13: Retirement distributions: How much can you afford?paulmerriman.com/2014-new-site/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/... · Retirement distributions: How much can you afford? Paul Merriman

Merriman is an investment ad-visory firm registered with the Securities and Exchange Com-mission. Based in Seattle, we manage more than $1.5 billion in investments for clients all across the country.

Since Merriman was founded in 1983, we have maintained a commitment to empowering people, whether they become our clients or not.

We give advice on everything from investment basics to col-lege funding and retirement distributions, taking the time to educate our clients along the way so they can feel comfort-able with their money manage-ment strategy.

Our services are specifically structured to help reduce the level of emotional decision making that can derail the best of plans. Your advisor will work with you to create a detailed investment plan and then will work on your behalf, making sure it gets implemented and keeping your portfolio appro-priately structured over time.

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Page 13 of 14 Merriman - Invest Wisely. Live Fully. 1.800.423.4893

www.merriman.com

Recommended additional reading from FundAdvice.com

“Fine tuning your asset allocation”Perhaps the biggest job that any investor has is managing risk. If you take too much, you could be flirting with disaster; if you take too little, you could cheat yourself out of the returns you need to take care of yourself, your family and your heirs. In this article, Paul Merriman shows how to get this important equation right.

“The best mutual funds: DFA or Vanguard?”We have been teaching investors how to use Vanguard and Dimensional Fund Advisors funds for more than a decade. Here, Paul Merriman gives an update on how they compare.

“Dollar depreciation, inflation and portfolio performance”Director of Research, Larry Katz, discusses how a portfolio can be structured to offset the potential negative impacts of dollar depreciation or rising inflation and reviews how three different portfolios performed when the dollar depreciated or inflation increased.

“Inflation, politics, history and investments”Merriman Advisor, Mark Metcalf, uses some examples from the cyclic history of investing to explain how fear can be useful but should not drive our investment actions.

DisclosureThis document contains hypothetical results. Although we have done our best to present this information fairly, hypothetical performance is still potentially misleading. Hypothetical data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual performance. This data is based on transactions that were not made. Instead, the trades were simulated, based on knowledge that was avail-able only after the fact and thus with the benefit of hindsight. Results do not include the impact of taxes, if any. Past returns are not indicative of future results.

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Page 14 of 14 Merriman - Invest Wisely. Live Fully. 1.800.423.4893

Data sources: The following data sources were used to develop the tables and figures in this article. Note that many of our return series rely on academic simulations gathered and developed by Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA). All performance data are total returns including interest and dividends. Simulated data subtracts the current ex-pense ratio for the comparable fund, except for the S&P 500 Index.

Equities: Emerging Markets DFEMX to May 1994, DFA simulation back to Jan 1987.Emerging Market Core DFCEX from May 2005.Emerging Market Small Cap DEMSX back to 1999, DFA simulation back to Jan. 1987.Emerging Market Value DFEVX back to 1999, DFA simulation back to Jan. 1987.International Large Cap DFALX back to 1992, MSCI EAFE back to 1970.International Large Cap Value DFIVX back to Mar 1994, DFA simulation back to 1975.International Small Cap DFISX back to Oct. 1996, DFA simulation back to 1970.International Small Value DISVX back to 1995.Large Cap DFUSX back to May 2010, DFLCX from Jan. 1991 - Apr. 2010, S&P 500 1970-1990.Large Value DFLVX back to 1994, DFA simulation back to 1970.Micro Cap (or Small Cap) DFSCX back to 1983, Dimensional US Micro Cap Index to 1970.Real Estate Investment Trusts DFREX back to Jan. 1993, Don Keim REIT Index 1975-1992, NAREIT 1972-1974. S&P 500 S&P 500 Index, provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group, through DFA. Small Value DFSVX back to 1994, DFA simulation back to 1970.

Bonds: Barclays U.S. TIPs Back to March 1997 to June 2000, Morningstar. DFA TIPs DIPSX starting January 2007.DFA Intermediate Government Bonds DFIGX, Morningstar.Vanguard Short-Term Treasuries VFISX, Morningstar. Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasuries VFITX, Morningstar. Vanguard Inflation Protected Securities VIPSX, Morningstar from July 2000 to December 2006.

Details: • Initial investment is $1,000,000• Distribution is at the beginning of the year.• Fees are calculated based on the Merriman tiered fee schedule and the Schwab custodial asset based pricing fees, imposed

yearly.• U.S. Equity Allocation: 20% each in LC, LCV, SC, SCV, and REITs• International Equity Allocation iss:

1970-1974: 50% Int. LC, 50% Int. SC 1975-1986: 25% Int. LC, 25% Int. LCV, 50% Int. SC 1987-1994: 20% Int. LC, 20% Int. LCV, 10% EM, 5% EMS, 5% EMV, 40% Int. SC 1995-2005: 20% Int. LC, 20% Int. LCV, 10% EM, 5% EMS, 5% EMV, 20% Int. SC, 20% Int. SCV 2006 - 2010: 20% each in Int. LC, Int. LCV, Int. SC, Int. SCV, and EM Core

•BondAllocationis:1970 - February 1997: 30% Short-Term Treasury, 70% Intermediate-Term Government March 1997 – 2010: 30% Short-Term Treasury, 50% Intermediate-Term Government, 20% TIPs.

• Distribution Schedules:Conservative Fixed Distribution Schedule: $40,000 will be distributed each year and increased every year by the previous

year’s inflation rate.Moderate Fixed Distribution Schedule: $50,000 will be distributed each year and increased every year by the previous year’s

inflation rate.Aggressive Fixed Distribution Schedule: $60,000 will be distributed each year and increased every year by the previous

year’s inflation rate.Conservative Flexible Distribution Schedule: 4% of previous year-end balance will be distributed for current year.Moderate Flexible Distribution Schedule: 5% of previous year-end balance will be distributed for current year.Aggressive Flexible Distribution Schedule: 6% of previous year-end balance will be distributed for current year.