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1Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04© 2004 Gary Sasaki
Digital Living 2010
digdia (dĭj-dēa) – Digital Living opportunities empowered by digital media
How the living room is going digitaland the strategic forces involved
2Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04© 2004 Gary Sasaki
Agenda
ChangeThe next wave has startedand it affects the entire value chain
Hot Spots
Caution
Please do not reproduce or distribute these slides without permission.These slides may have terms and concept that are not familiar to the reader.
If you are in the S.F. Bay Area, I’d be happy to present these to your group ([email protected])
3Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04© 2004 Gary Sasaki
The Next Wave
1980 1990 2000 201019701960
IBM PCColor TV
MosaicVHS
$70B $80B
02 06
Consumers are shifting their $from the PC room into the DTV room
PCs and related(Printers, PDAs, etc.)
WW estimates
DVD
DTVs and related(DVRs, DVDR, etc.)$25B $65B
Digital TV, Digital Video Recorder (PVR), DVD Recorder
4Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04© 2004 Gary Sasaki
Change Economics
• Spectrum = $ to Federal Budget
• One 6 MHz Analog channel = 4 SDTV channels = $
• Half of Cable’s spectrum wasted on Analog = $*
• HDTV creates new consumer demand = $
• One HDTV channel requires 6 MHz
Several non-consumer issues are pushing for change
Bottom Line: Switching to Digital Makes Money
TVFreed after DTV
MobileWiFi, et al60-69 Clearance
30
MH
z
3G
Hz
Over the Air Spectrum Allocation
FM
,etc Govt.
HamMobile
Aircraft, Navigation, Telemetry, etc Maritimeetc.
Satl.DARetc.
Standard Digital TV, Digital Audio Radio* Ferree proposal may change the economics
5Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04© 2004 Gary Sasaki
CE System Connectivity Evolution
AVIslands
Analog world - random boxes with random analog cables
HomeTheaterin a Box
DVD Content drives HTiB with cables kits
DigitalContentServices
DTV drives point-to-point digitalcabling (content protection)
IntegratedContentServices
Multiple services drivePC-AV networked home
2000 2010
Content Services drives change
Consumer Electronics, Digital TV
6Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04© 2004 Gary Sasaki
Connectivity Enables New Services
digital cable pay-per-view, video & TV on demand
modem digital video recorders
broadband movie downloads
over the air DTV movie caching
DSL TV over DSL
DSL ala carte TV
2-way DTV interactive TV
These services weren’t necessarily envisioned by the infrastructure
7Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04© 2004 Gary Sasaki
Value Chain Changes
WinTel Comp. Mfr MB OEM PC Mfr SW
Content DRM
New to industry
WinTel Comp. Mfr MB OEM PC Mfr SW
Aggreg. Serv Prov STB,DVR HT SW Content DRM
New to industry
PC
Aggreg. Serv Prov TV Content DRMCE
WinTel PC Mfr SWPCCE
8Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04© 2004 Gary Sasaki
Digital Media Drives Devices
VHS DVD DVD±R HD Optical
Ophra’s DVD Cam
HDDHD Recorders
AnalogTape
DigitalTape
DVR
Control of Media Format is Control of Ecosystem
FormatWars
time
TapeFades
FilmMemoryCards
ConsumableMemory Cards
TV Card Slots
Photo-VideoCameras
DigitalCamera
CameraPhone
9Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04© 2004 Gary Sasaki
Agenda
Change
Hot Spots
Lots of problems to solve =Lots of opportunities
Caution
10Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04© 2004 Gary Sasaki
Evolving Display Engines
TI – DLPxHD3 “1080x1920”*with “SmoothPicture”
Sony SXRD (aka LCOS)in a Front Projector
Intel’s LCOStrying for another “Intel Inside”
In the wings: • SED (surface-conduction electron-emitting display)• OLED (organic light emitting display)• New PDP configurations• More to come…
In “PC speak”, Display engines are in the “80486” Phase
* It can now be mentioned that this part doesnot have 1080x1920 mirrors.
Liquid Crystal on Silicon, Plasma Display Panel
11Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04© 2004 Gary Sasaki
DVD/HDD “Mediaplex”The ordinary DVD player, STB or TiVo boxes are Passé
Features galore• Record shows to HDD• Record onto DVD• Handles HDTV• Secure display link• Pause live TV• PiP, multi-tuner• Electronic Program Guide• Memory Card Slot• View Personal Photos/Videos• Link via Internet• Send content to remote room• Play Music, MP3, Internet Radio
Panasonic AVC Server (2005)
• Sony• Panasonic• Samsung• Philips• LG• Pioneer• Toshiba• Zenith• Sci.Atlanta• Motorola• TiVo• Digeo (Moxi)• Sharp• Microsoft• HP• D-Link
FromFamiliarandnot soFamiliarPlayers
Of course - price, capacity, features and availability vary
12Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04© 2004 Gary Sasaki
Blu-Ray vs. HD-DVD vs. Red vs. China
Blu-Ray: • Sony, Philips, Samsung… + HP & Dell• MPEG2. Up to 54 GB (dual layer)• 0.1mm protection – need caddy, not backwards compatible
“Red”With WMV-HD (9 M bit/sec) an HD movie can fit on a dual layer red laser DVD
“China”Avoiding royalties again, this time with their own DVD for HD
Another Format Warwith less chance of compromise
HD-DVD (aka AOD)• Toshiba (DVD Forum Chair), NEC, (Microsoft)• Adopted Microsoft’s WMV-HD. Up to ~35 GB (dual layer)• Conventional 0.6 mm protection layer – more easily backwards compatible
Samsung Blu-Ray drive
Advanced Optical Disk, Windows Media Video – High Definition
13Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04© 2004 Gary Sasaki
Getting Better Content to You
PanasonicViera TV1st withOCAPfor 2-waycable services
Microsoft – IPTVsending TV over ADSL
FCC Powellstill pushing DTV; adding
2-way MOU, Must Carry, VoIP
Disney MovieBeamcoming your way
Sony Passagebreaking the duopolyfor conditional access
As more HD content is produced, some subtle issues emerge
Open Cable Application Platform
14Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04© 2004 Gary Sasaki
AV Networking
PanasonicDr. Liao demos170 Mb/sHomePlug AV
Samsung802.11a for
sending videoto screen
it is starting to get serious attention
ToshibaUWB demo, sending
2 HDTV streams (2 yrs away)Ultra-Wideband wireless Digital Home Working Group, Digital Entertainment Network initiative, Home AV interoperability
DENi seems to have faded.HAVi was missing in action.
Digital Living Network Alliance(formerly DHWG)
15Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04© 2004 Gary Sasaki
Digital Media Wars
1st BattleLogical Formats
Dumb or DumberMemory
Removing the Mystery of “What’s on my Media Card?”
OS Rules
2nd BattleFile Formats
SpecifiedFile Formats
and Access Rules
Media CardRules
3rd BattleMedia Formats
OrganizedMedia Rules
ConsumerRules
16Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04© 2004 Gary Sasaki
Agenda
Change
Hot Spots
CautionRemember when investing in“sticky eyeballs” was the rage?
17Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04© 2004 Gary Sasaki
Convergence?
New technology often enters as a hybriduntil a successful new form evolves.
Will the PC successfullywin the TV space?
Some ask“Which will win – TV or PC?”
Not exactly; anyway,Wrong Question
18Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04© 2004 Gary Sasaki
Gadgets are for SpiesThey will go away or be absorbed
Gadgets introduce a new function to the consumer, but don’t hold enough value to stand on their own.
• Sony RoomLink
• TiVo stand-alone DVR
• Microsoft TV Photo Viewer
• Philips Pronto Remote
• Line Doubler/Scaler
• Samsung/Disney MovieLink
• Digital Picture Frames
• Internet Radio Boxes
Useful functions getabsorbed
19Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04© 2004 Gary Sasaki
Profit
Better Performance through Lower Cost Technology(e.g. PCs in the good old days)HD Displays will play this game, Mediaplexes maybe
Make services essential bylinking to content and access
(e.g. Cable, satellite and TiVo)The emerging digital infrastructure
opens up the game to others.
Ads will have to offer value or sneak in(e.g. BMWfilms and product placements)We will see more interactive & market-of-one ads
Digital Media consumables create an annuity(e.g. recordable DVDs)
Photo-Video will create a new opportunity
Old business models learn some new tricks
20Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04© 2004 Gary Sasaki
Industries Not Covered
IndependentLiving
Mobility
Gaming
Telematics
Telcos
DigitalCinema
Advertising
21Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04© 2004 Gary Sasaki
Digital Living2010
Gary Sasaki has been in HP Labs in strategic business development, creatively looking at emerging markets and technologies, helping to initiate and grow billion dollar businesses. Prior experiences include leading a 100+ HP R&D lab with three #1 worldwide product lines, and product marketing.
Gary is interested in helping & networking with companies that are trying to find growth opportunities in the Digital Consumer Electronics industry by evaluating and positioning strategies, business plans, technologies, markets and competitors; and is willing to present these slides to your group. Suggestions or requests to have these slides presented can be sent to [email protected]
This presentation is available for free at www.digdia.comPlease do not reproduce or distribute these slides without permission.
digdia (dĭj-dēa) – Digital Living opportunities empowered by digital media
