Upload
vonhan
View
215
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Subsidy-free solar electricity
75% cost reduction by end of the decade
5-6c/kWh at utility-scale
Global Competitiveness
Fundamental Premise for SunShot…
SunShot Program Structure
Photovoltaics (PV)
Concentrating Solar Power (CSP)
DOESunShot
Soft BOSSystems Integration
Distributed Generation - on-site or near point of use -
Centralized Generation - large users or utilities -
9
Polysilicon prices fell from 2008 to 2009 as polysilicon production capacity caught up with demand
*Q3 ‘11 through 9/16/11Sources: : For 2007-2011 Actual Module Selling Price: Q1’07 to Q2’09: Barclays Capital (12/14/09) and Stifel Nicolaus (5/5/11), Q3’09 onward: UBS Securities, LLC(2/12/10, 4/23/10, 7/29/10, 10/29/2010,1/24/11, 6/3/11, 8/17/11, 9/16/11). For Analyst Estimates 2008-10: analyst reports, Barclays (5/1/09,11/15/10); Deutsche Bank (5/27/08, 1/23/09, 5/6/10, 1/5/11); Lazard (11/4/08, 4/2/09); Stifel Nicolaus(10/6/09, 4/8/10); UBS(8/22/10, 3/8/11)
May-08
Nov-08Jan-09
Apr-09May-09
Oct-09Apr-10 May-10Aug-10Oct-10
Jan-11Mar-11
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00Q
1'07
Q2'
07
Q3'
07
Q4'
07
Q1'
08
Q2'
08
Q3'
08
Q4'
08
Q1'
09
Q2'
09
Q3'
09
Q4'
09
Q1'
10
Q2'
10
Q3'
10
Q4'
10
Q1'
11
Q2
'11
Q3'
11*
Q4
'11
$ pe
r kg
(no
min
al)
$/ W
att
(nom
inal
)
China c-Si (left axis)
May-08
Polysilicon Spot (right axis)
Analyst Estimates (date of estimate) (left axis)
Global Forces Cause Fundamental Shifts in Market Dynamics
10
Pathway to SunShot – Residential PV
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
Inst
alle
d Sy
stem
Pri
ce (
$/W
DC
)
Power ElectronicsBOS HardwareBOS Non-HardwareModule
System Price2010
Power Electronics
Cost Reductions
BOS Hardware Soft BOS
Module Efficiency Improvements
Module Manufacturing
$0.42$0.46
$2.69
$2.15
$0.30$0.27
$2.04
$0.59
$1.02$0.12$0.19$0.65
$0.54
$5.71/W
$1.50/W
SunShot Target
Growth in CSP and PV Capacity
• 14% of U.S. electricity needs by 2030 and 27% by 2050.• A combination of evolutionary and revolutionary technological
changes.• Reaching the goal will require significant manufacturing scale-up
11
AdamCohen
PhD, Marylandphysics
KatherineCrowleyPhD, Rice
math
LennyTinker
PhD, Princetonchemistry
DiogenesPlacencia
PhD, Arizonachemistry
AimeeBailey
PhD, Imperialphysics
AlexPolizzotti
BS, Pomonachemistry
The SunShot Fellows
$Watt
∝ Manufacturing CostEfficiency η∝ JSC ⋅VOC ⋅FF
Barriers-based investments:Cell and module efficiency
31%18% 15% 13% 12% 10%
2%
43%
25%20% 20% 17%
12%8%
63%
29% 29% 29% 29%20%
14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
CPV (3J) c‐Si mc‐Si CIGS CdTe a‐Si OPV
Efficiency
Theoretical Maximum
Laboratory Record (cell)
Typical Production (Module)
16
Significant role for Basic Science
• Reaching theoretical efficiencies : CdTe, CIGS• Plasmonics• Intermediate Bandgap Solar Cells• Quantum Dots and Nanowires• Organic PV : Model Experiments• Earth abundant oxides and sulfides• Photons to Thermochemical Storage• Exceeding the Shockley-Queisser limit• Advanced light trapping• Biomimetic PV concepts• Novel approaches for charge splitting• HT Thermal/physical/chemical properties of
salts, fluids
TIMEP
ER
FOR
MA
NC
E
17
Overcoming Fundamental Barriers : CdTe, CIGS, CZTS
Parameter
CdTe (poly on glass)
GaAs (thin film single‐crystal)
Eg at 302 K (eV) 1.49 1.43
Voc (V) 0.85 1.11FF (%) 75 85.9
Jsc (mA/cm2) 26 29.4Efficiency (%) 17 28
Source: Solar Cell Efficiency tables (version 38), Prog. in PV, 2011, vol. 19, pp. 565-72
Challenging Current Notions
Glass
TCO + Buffer
n ‐ CdS
p ‐ CdTe
Back Contact
Glass
Is CdS/CdTe an ideal interface?
• What is role of Grain boundaries, interfaces, dislocations, point defects
• Does single crystal have higher minority carrier lifetime?• What is doping limit of CdTe?
What is a model system for CdTe to demonstrate technology potential?
How do you make controlled surfaces for good contacts?
25% cell demonstration by
2015
Materials Growth
‐ Bulk crystal ‐ Thin film epitaxial‐ Thin film with controlled GBs‐ Surface Science‐ Interface control
Probe‐materials & electro‐optics
‐ Point defects‐ ⊥s, SFs, GBs, etc.‐ Interfaces‐ Bandgap and defect energies Models &
calculations
‐ Ab‐initio‐ Device 3d models
Integration
‐ Device process‐ Device test‐ Efficiency demonstration
proof of concept
Enabling “Quantum Leaps” in Technology through Science
Solicitation is now open
A. Mills, et al,” IEEE Power & Energy Magazine, Vol. 9, No. 3, pp. 33-41, 2011.
Examples of Current Storage Technologies
Current batteries : ~300-500$/kWh : Can we go to 20-30 $/kWh ??Huge potential for Impact Clear need for basic science: Electrochemistry, materials discovery, understanding redoxchemistry…Interface science : on a beam line, in a electron microscope, …Photochemical, Thermochemical approaches
Ultra Low Cost Energy Storage
• Capture Solar or Thermal Energy
• Store in Chemical/Structural/ Electronic/ Phase Trans
• Other approaches• Solid state systems
• Release Energy into Electrical/Magnetic /Thermal Cycle
• Return to Original State
Explore reversible, controllable phase transformations using sunlight …
Photochemical and Thermochemical Storage
Goal:Establish process to usher basic science developed within BES/NSF into applied technologies programs.
Sources of Basic Energy Research:– Chemical Sciences, Geosciences, and
Biosciences (CSGB - BES)– Materials Science and Engineering
(MSE - BES)– Scientific User Facilities (SUF - BES)– Materials Research (DMR - NSF)– Chemistry (CHE - NSF)
BRIDGE – Bridging Research Interactions through Collaborative Development Grants in Energy
28
Plug-and-Play Solar
Future (Smart) Home
• Smart outlet• Smart circuit• Smart breaker panel• Smart appliances• Home area network (HAN)
Future (Smart) Grid
• Distributed generation• Two-way power flow• Communication and
control• Rich energy information
and transactions• Microgrid
Future (Smart) City
• Integrated grid and city planning
Utility Control Center
Vision : PV as an ApplianceNo permitting Easy installation Seamless grid integration
29
GEARED - Grid Engineers for Accelerated Renewable Energy Deployment
Problem:Electric Grid workforce is aging – mass retirements in 5-15 yearsLack of skilled personnel conflicts with need for a new “smart grid”Center for Energy Workforce Development estimates the need for 92,000 new grid workers, including ~18,000 engineers
Goal:Establish University programs to train a network of grid engineering STEM professionals , ready for a 21st century renewable economy
$-
$400
$800
$1,200
$1,600
$2,000
-12 0 12 24 36 48
Mill
ions
SunShot IncubatorDOE funding as Catalyst for Private Investment
Source: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (2012) 31
Follow on Private Investment
$17.5M DOE Investment
Months after Incubator Funding
32
US excels at Innovation – But lags in manufacturing of innovation
US76%
ROW24%
VC & PE Investment in Solar (2010)
$2.3B
Source: Bloomberg NEF (12/08, 3/6/09, 4/9/10, 4/16/10, 11/8/10, & 3/16/11)$44B
Debt Finance in Solar (2010)
US9%
Rest of World91%
Debt Finance in Solar (2010)
33
Manufacturing
“Abandoning today's ‘commodity’ manufacturing can lock you out of tomorrow's emerging industry.”
- Andy Grove, co-founder, former CEO, Intel
PV Manufacturing Initiative (PVMI)
Part ISolving pre‐competitive problems
common across industry (at pilot line manufacturing R&D)
Part IIInnovative domestic manufacturing
processes at scaleRegional Test Centers
3 University and Industry ConsortiaUp to $125M over 5 years3 to 1 cost leveragingTools, materials, processes integration
Up to $50M over 2 yearsMinimum 3 to 1 cost leveraging
“Even if you paid nothing for the hardware, you'd still pay thousands of dollars to install a residential solar power system.”
- Secretary Chu
Soft Cost : The Critical Issue
~$6.50
~$5.50
~$4.00
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
Residential Commercial Utility
PV
Sys
tem
Pri
ce (
$/W
DC)
2010 PV System PricesBOS-non-hardwareBOS-hardwarePower electronicsModule
BOS-Soft Costs Will Determine the Future of Solar!!
Permitting, Inspection and Interconnection
Customer Acquisition
Installation
Financing
More Paperwork = Higher CostUnlike physical phenomena, there are no fundamental limits to bureaucracy!!
Rooftop Solar Challenge
CA NJ
=CA WI
La Mirada, CA Oceanside, CA
≠
≠
Uniform processes
The Problem • 18,000+ local jurisdictions with different PV
permitting requirements• 5,000+ utilities implementing interconnection
standards and net metering programs• 50 states developing interconnection
standards and net metering rules
The Solution The Challenge invests in 22 teams comprised of jurisdictions, utilities, and local stakeholders to develop the same requirements and processes across large geographic areas (500,000+ population). The Challenge also measures each team’s progress to identify approaches that work.
Ad Lucem Basic R&D for Market Transformation Pathways
Overview• Basic R&D incorporating the human
aspect of our energy challenges can spur social, economic, and behavioral innovation
• Tools from complexity science allows us to probe such issues
Potential Research Topics• Information and technology diffusion on social networks• Mechanisms underlying the rate of technological progress• Characterizing spatiotemporal adoption patterns• Effective and efficient communication strategies• Strengthening feedback processes between adopters and innovators
The spread of obesity in a large social network N. A. Christakis et al., N. Engl. J. Med. 357 (2007)
RECOMMENDATION 4-4: DOE, along with NSF, should initiate a multidisciplinary social science research program to examine the U.S. energy technology innovation ecosystem, including its actors, functions, processes, and outcomes. This research should be fully integrated into DOE’s energy research and applied programs.
We remain the most innovative country in the world ... but “Invented in America” is not
good enough to guarantee our prosperity.
America has the opportunity to lead the world in clean energy technologies and provide a
foundation for our future prosperity.
“Invented in America, Made in America,Sold World-wide”
Element Abundance Annual Production (Tons)
1) O 46.6% 108
2) Si 27.7% 3.88x106 (5000)
3) Al 8.17% 1.5x107
4) Fe 5.22% 7.16x108
5) Ca 4.11% 1.12x108 (CaO)
6) Na 2.51% 2x105
7) Mg 2.34 3.5x105
8) K 2.17 200
9) Ti 0.57% 9.9x104
10) H 0.14%
Element Abundance Annual Production (Tons)
11) P 0.11 1.53x108
12) Mn 0.098 6.22x106
13) C 0.074 8.6x109
14)F 0.059
15)Ba 0.044 6x106
16) S 0.041 5.4x107
17) Sr 0.037 1.37x105
18) Zr 0.018 7x103
19) W 0.016 4.51x104
20) V 0.014 7x103
Top 10 most widely produced (Millions of tons):•C (8,600), Fe(716), P (153), Ca (112), S (54), Cu (6.45), Mn (6.22), Ba (6.0), Zn (5.02), Si (5.02, only 0.005 electronic grade)
Rock forming elements – found in Earth’s crust, typically in oxide form… Fossil Fuel-like PV
Twenty Most Abundant Elements in the Earth’s Upper Crust
Materials advancement- Dirt Cheap Solar energy
Overview of SINBERISE : Berkeley‐ Singapore Research Institute for Sustainable Energy
I. Photon to electron
Bandgap controlled Heterostructures
Hierarchic structures for Thin Absorbers
Electrodes
Overcoming minority carrier diffusion limits
II. Photon to liquid fuel
Semiconductor nanostructures
Semiconductor-molecular catalyst hybrids
Metal organic framework
Bi-functional molecular catalysts
III. Integrated PV / PEC device
Device architecture and integration
Optical enhancement strategies such as plasmonics
From Fundamental Research…
…To Commercialization…
Materials advancement
• Heterostructures based on materials such as oxides, sulfides• Band gap tuning and doping of oxide semiconductors
Form factor development
• 3D hierarchical architectures• Nanocasting and Bio-inspired structures• ITO, FTO replacement
Fundamental studies
• Minority carrier studies• Trap passivation strategies
Photons to electrons
Carbon-based photonics and photovoltaics•Leverages Graphene Research Center at NUS• Flexible, wearable, solar cells• Interfacing and stacking of 2D crystals for 3D architectures• Multi-phase assembly of nanostructures on graphene
• Fundamental science and engineering•Discovery of new functional structures
•Physics and chemistry of fuel production
•Transitioning science to technology•Solar Fuel generator with > 1%
efficiency•Use abundant materials
•Scalable manufacturing processes•Energy density matching methanol
Photon to Liquid Fuel
Solar fuel approaches• Organic‐Inorganic hybrids and semiconductor nanowires• Nanostructures• Metal‐organic frameworks• Hydrogenase enzyme based systems• Comparative studies