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Regular and Menthol.

TOP OF THE WEEK JULY 4, 1983

CONTENTSNATIONAL AFFAIRS 16 BUSINESS 40

A historic high-court ruling The economy: a forecastA budget—at last ofsunshineThe JFK tapes Railroads: a sensible marriagePanic over AIDS Selling it at the movies

The media and the scare LIFE/STYLE 55Arms: the Sakharov letter Flashdance! flashfashions

'

Purloined papersHispanic power at the polls TECHNOLOGY 58End ofthe "Coronado The race for the supercomputer

Company" (the cover)The Hungarian touch

INTERNATIONAL 26 The supercomputer czarMideast: can Arafat survive? SPACE .68

"The Syrians betrayed us" Challenger's homecomingPoland: eight days offreedomDeath in Honduras .ErTf 7°El Salvador: a new pacification Quilters : a commonwealth

program ofwomen

A U.S. envoy's report from BOOKS 72Kabul "The Battle for the Falklands"

"The Name ofthe Rose," by OTHER DEPARTMENTSUmberto Eco Letters 5

"Blue Pastoral," by Gilbert Update 12Sorrentino Periscope 15

„„__..,__., Newsmakers 57TELEVISION . 74 Transition 77

Travels with Charlie and Bill

SCIENCE 76 THE COLUMNISTSA sister city at Machu Picchu MV Turn: David Silverberg 13

Milton Friedman 51NEWS MEDIA 77 Jane Bryant

Quinn

52Shooting at "Evening Stars" GeorgeF. Will 84

M°y]EST

4'--,

*, 78 Cover: Illustration by JeffreyThe Draughtsman s Mangiat. The SupermanS in the

Contract : compelling shidd is a trademark of DCArt gQ ComicsInc. © 1944. Usedwith

Beyond "American Gothic" permission.© 1983 by

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57NEWSWEEK/JULY 4, 1983

Photos by Steven Sutton—Duomo

Personalbest: For CarlLewis, last week'sextraordinaryperformance was only thebeginning

"My training just all came together," after the magazine had misidentified her as the Jean Poiret French comedy that alsosays Carl Lewis of his extraordinary per- thesubject ofnude photositpublished three spawnedthe 1979movie,found his patienceformance last week in Indianapolis, where yearsago, expresseddelightat the judgment and his pocketbook rewarded. Written byhe becamethe first athletein97 yearsto take and illustratedthe differencesbetweenher-three titlesin a nationaloutdoortrack-and- selfand the mystery nude. "Shewas a fiat-field championship.Lewis says he expected chestedblonde," said

Collins,

a brunette,to win thelong jumpand the 200- and 100-

Tony Award winner Harvey Fierstein andscoredbyJerryHerman,the

$5

millionpro-duction,whichstars GeneBarryand GeorgeHearn, broke the Colonial Theatre's pre-

meter dashes at the USA/Mobil meet,but "It'sa straight smash," quippedproduc- vious box-office record set by "Woman ofadds thathe neverexpectedto jump28 feet er Allan Carr last week after "La Cage the Year" and grossed $120,000 in its first10V. inches (the second longest long jump aux Folles," his Broadway-boundmusical three days.in history) or to run the 200 meter in 19.75 about life in a St. Tropeznightclub, openedseconds (the second fastest). Already opti- in Boston.

Carr,

who "had faith and keptmistic about the 1984 Summer Olympics, writing checks" during the three years

"She'sbigger than life," enthused JessicaLange after her introductionto BetteDavis

the soft-spokenUniversity of Houston sen- it took to stage a musical adaptation of last week in Hollywood.The two actressesior concludes: "I can run faster andjump longer. I feel I can break worldrecords in all three events."

shared a dais as hostesses at an AmericanFilm Institutebenefit dinnerfor the Decadeof Preservation—a 10-yeareffort to restorefilms faded by nitrate deterioration. Al-thoughshe was sad that films like "Cleopa-tra" (1917) with Theda Bara and "ThatRoyle Girl" (1926) with W. C. Fields havealreadybeenlost

forever,

Davishada differ-ent attitudeabout her own "Hell's House"(1932). "We made it in six days," she ex-plained, "andbelieveme, Iwouldn'twantitpreserved."

Barry and Hearn:Boston bravosMarthaSwope

She had askedfor

$5

millionin dam-ages in her invasion-of-privacy suitagainst Adelina, an Italian magazineowned by Hustler publisher LarryFlynt. So imagineBritishnovelistJack-ieCollins9s surprise when a sympathet-ic all-female jury last week in NewYork City awarded her

$40

millioninstead.

Collins,

who hadbrought suit MARY MURPHY

Davis andLange: First impressionsDarlene Hammond

58 NEWSWEEK/JULY

4,

1983

The Race to BuildA SupercomputerJapan and the United States are rushing to produce anew generation ofmachines that can very nearlythink.

moreserious to our future than the auto-mobiles sold from Japan, because thecom-puter is at the root of every major futurechange,"Dertouzos warns. "The Japaneserecognize that whoever controls the infor-mationrevolution has,in

effect,

someform

Oneday in 19 8 1, MichaelL. Dertouzos,thedirectoroftherenownedComput-

er Laboratoryat the Massachusetts Insti-tute of Technology, received from acolleague justback from Japan a draft of aresearch paper. It outlined Japanese pro-posals for long-range research projects inadvancedcomputerscience—planstobuildrevolutionary artificial-intelligence com-puters and supercomputers a thousandtimesfasterthan today'smachines. ToDer-touzos's ears, the documenthad a familiarring. "I lookedatit andI startedpanicking,panicking, panicking," he recalls. "I said,'My

God,

thisis theresearchcharter formylaboratory.These guys have stolen it!'"

Untilnow theUnitedStates hasdominat-

andthey are very powerfulmachines,capa-

The Japanesehad in fact taken nothingbut the initiative,yet Dertouzosimmediate-ly saw the threat: Japan's JIPDEC plan, asitwas thencalled, was acarefullyconceivedblueprint of the research and engineeringneeded to leapfrog the U.S. computer in-dustry and destroy its world supremacy.Worse, eventhoughAmerican universitieshad produced the basicresearch the Japa-nese would rely on, American companieswere as serenelyunaware ofdanger as thebattleships that swung at anchor in PearlHarbormore than40 years ago. "Mygoodfriends intheU.S. corporationsweredeeplyasleep," Dertouzos says.

Today thebattle lines are drawn. Armedwith fresh commitments of money andmanpower, the United States is taking onJapan for controlof the advancedtechnol-ogies that will dominatecomputing in thelate 1980sand the 19905. Nor is thissimplya strugglefor anindustry: entireeconomieswill be reshaped by the coming radicalchanges in informationprocessing. Super-computer speed is alreadybeing used com-merciallyforaircraft design,oil andmineralexploration,weather forecasting and com-puter-circuit design—all of which requirevast amounts of calculation. Supercom-puters may soon be put to work in theautomobile and shipbuilding industries,andpressed into the service ofgeneticengi-neers and economicforecasters.

ThesupersecretNationalSecurity Agen-cy, the cryptographers' "PuzzlePalace," isalready a heavyuser oftoday's supercom-puters. And thePentagon'sfuturistic laser-weaponssystemsbasedinspace willdependon supercomputers. "This assault is far

B

of increasedgeopoliticalcontrol."Ed advanced-computer technologies: the 7." *~~* Wworld's supercomputers have all been |* *\ It 4^"American-made.There are 74 inoperation, j ' «f A[ t^t^SA"andthey are very powerfulmachines,capa- r: / .. A^^-v^ble of performing several hundred million Wk

"

"" ut^_^^* e-/^*operationsper second. Theyare so fast and ■ * ""^^^"^^ vNr3their electronic circuitry is so dense that IlJ^

'

\!%mgiantrefrigerationunits mustpumpa freon- Yjtjgas coolant through the machines just to \ jkeep them from meltingdown. _^_\ Bk Wj

Yet the current supercomputersare onlyat the thresholdofwhatcomputerdesignersthink can be achieved; the next generationofadvanced supercomputerswill make to-day's machineslook likehandheldcalcula-tors. "We have problems that would take500 to 1,000 hours to solve [on today'ssupercomputers]," says David Nowak, di-vision leader for computational physics atLawrenceLivermore NationalLaboratory,

Dueling over artificial intelligence:Kazuhiro Fuchi (below left), chief of Japan's FifthToshio Sakai

I

59NEWSWEEK/JULY 4, 1983

where a cluster ofseven supercomputers—known as "Octopus"—is used for nuclear-weapons research. Before the end of thecentury, computer scientists hopeto devel-op machines that not onlycrunch numbersat high speedbut also exhibit artificial in-telligence—computers that can think andreason somewhat like human beings andthat can understand informationconveyedby sight, speech and motion.

\

\

Illustrationby Wayne McLoughlin

Generationproject; Stanford UniversityAI expertEdward Feigenbaum(below right)

The question is which nation's scientistswill get there first. The Japanesehave an-nounced a two-pronged plan to build ad-vanced computer technologies.One projectis the

$100

million, eight-yearNationalSu-perspeedComputer project, which aims atproducing machines 1,000timesfasterthanthe existingCray-1 supercomputerbuilt byCray Research of Minneapolis.The other,the

$500

million, 10-yearFifth GenerationComputer project, is focusing on artificialintelligence.Both are nowbeing counteredby American

efforts,

includinga Pentagonrequestforup to

$

1billionoverthenext fiveyears for superspeed and artificial-intel-ligence (AI) technologies. Although be-hind, Great Britain and France have alsolaunched national supercomputerprojects.

The great danger for the losers in therace—and the opportunity for the win-ners—is that whoeverbuilds the next gen-eration ofcomputerswillhave a huge tech-nologicaland commercialadvantage:thesecomputers will be used for computer andmicroelectronics design—to build evensmarterandmorepowerfulmachines.Theywon't be self-replicating machines, butthey willbe close. "Ittakes you a long timeto catch up," says computer scientist RajReddy of Carnegie-MellonUniversity,oneof the top U.S. computer-research centers."Insomeoftheseareas, thatis the difference

JohnMcDermott

betweena first-ratepowerand a second-ratepower—fromaneconomicpoint ofviewandfrom a security pointofview."Thelosers intherace willfall fartherandfartherbehind.

The leading edgeof computer science isstill a black art; thereare no fixed laws, andthe fieldis highlyexperimental.Thatis whatworries U.S. scientists about Japan's ap-proach—some success is inevitable. "Be-cause thefield is experimental, [the Japa-nese] will come out with something," saysDertouzos. "Itmaynot be what they want-ed, but they'll come up with new architec-tures, newinsights, new designtechniques."

To build the computers that will domi-nate the 19905, both Japan and the

United States are dependingon theonrush-ing technological advances in microelec-tronics. Japan's Fifth Generation projectwill use

faster,

denser circuitry to createa new class of superintelligentcomputers.The 24 projects in the Fifth Generationconcentrate on artificialintelligence,a goalof American computer scientists for morethan a quarter century. "We are trying tocatch up to you, and not the other wayaround," says Tokyo University Prof.Tohru Moto-oka,who organized the proj-ectfor the Japanesegovernment.

AlthoughtheJapaneseare highlyregard-ed as superb engineers, Japanesecomputerscientists have oftenbeen faulted forfailingto develop innovative computer software.But in a break with tradition, KazuhiroFuchi, the Fifth Generation project direc-tor, has deliberately assembled a youngteam: "The questionwas whowould adaptmost easily to this research," says Fuchi."Youngpeoplehave fewerfixedideas."Theproject, headquarteredin a downtownTo-kyo skyscraper, will focus on computer ar-chitectures,softwareandthe symboliclogicnecessary to build thinking computers.

In the United

States,

meanwhile, threehuge newprogramsinelectronicsandcom-puting are gettingunder way:■ TheMicroelectronicsandComputerTech-nology Corp. (MCC). Last year WilliamNorris, the founder and chairman ofCon-trol DataCorp., conveneda meeting of topcomputer- and semiconductor-industryex-ecutives at the Grenelefe Golf and Tennisresort in

Orlando,

Fla., todiscuss setting upa huge research cooperative.The compa-nies agreedtoform anonprofit jointventureso that they couldpool theirresources andshare thecost ofdoinglong-rangeresearch.Twelve major U.S. corporations joinedthenew organization, including Honeywell,Motorola,RCA and Control Data.

MCC is a bold departure from the wayresearch is usually done in Americanuni-versitiesandcorporations,and itwillprobethe limitsofthe nation'santitrust laws. Theventurepartly followsthe Japanesemodel:the companies will donate scientists andresearchers to

MCC,

loaningthem forup tofour years. The corporate co-owners will

»

NEW SWEEK/JULY

4,

198360

only one processor, the CrayX-MP now coming onto themarket has twoprocessors and the Cray-2 due in late 1984 willhave fourprocessors.Thenext machine, the Cray-3, willprobablyhave 16 processors; Seymour Cray, the master designerof super-computers, is working out final designsfor it now. One machinealreadyinuse, theHEP supercomputerbuiltby Denelcor, Inc. ofAurora,

Colo.,

uses four processors to reach speeds up to 40millioninstructions per second.

Road Map: The more radical solutions to the

yon

Neumannbottleneck involve networks ofmany more processors and theirliberationfromthe tyrannyofa centralmemory.At theUniversi-tyofTexasatAustin, JamesBrowne hasbuilt a smallprototypeofa parallel-processingmachine. The TexasReconfigurableArrayComputer (TRAC), as it is called, has four processors and ninememories and works more like a telephone network than atraditional

yon

Neumann computer. "Instead ofprocessing in astraight line, it looks like a road map wherethecities are proces-sors andtheroads are the communications linksbetween them,"

network could handle more traffic when direct dial replacedhuman operators.The trick is to organizeand synchronize thecommunicationsbetweenthe processors and memories.

For theirFifth Generation Computerproject, the Japaneseareconsidering aradical departurefrom the

yon

Neumannarchitec-ture, the so-called "dataflow"computer championedfor thepast15 years by Jack Dennis at MIT. (Dennis and MIT ProfessorArvind spent two days lecturing on dataflowcomputers to anaudienceof200 scientists in Japanin 1980.) Dataflowcomputerswillhave hugenumbersofprocessors, eachwith its ownmemory,and, as in simpler parallel schemes, the computer will have aroutingnetworkso that theprocessorsandmemoriescancommu-nicatewith each other.

But the dataflowcomputer will go even further: "The rulesaboutwhen instructions are executedare

different,"

says Dennis.Conventional computers process a stream of instructions, one

after another, in the order theprogram tells the computer tofollow. In dataflowmachines,on the other hand, theprocess-ing units don'thave to go look-ing for data in memory; theysimply dowhatevercalculationis necessarywhen a "datapack-et" arrives (chart). Dennis isnow planning to build a data-flow computer with 256 proc-essors and memories, and sci-entists at the University ofManchester in England areworking on a similarmachine.

TreeLeaves:Thereis anotherway tobreakthe

yon

Neumannbottleneck,one thatdoesn'tde-pend on dataflowconcepts. Atthe UniversityofNorth Caroli-na at Chapel Hill, a team ofscientists led by Gyula Magohas designed a "binary tree"computer, multipleprocessorsarranged like leaves on a treewith thebranches carrying in-formation to and from theprocessors. IBM scientistJohnBackus, whoinventedFortran,themost widelyusedprogram-ming language on mainframe

Ib ohisson-NEwswEEK computers, is now working on"function-levelprogramming" languages that can run on com-puters like Mago'smachine.One advantageofBackus's is that theprogramminginstructionsandthe dataare intermingled, makingprogramming easier and providing the mathematicaltools thatwill enable theprogram to run more quickly.

Beforecomputermanufacturersabandon

yon

Neumannarchi-tecture in favor of these more radical designs, however, manyproblems will have to be solved. Designers must prove that theprototype machines will indeed outperform conventional com-puters. "Peopleare now dazzledby the prospect that they canhave 1,000 chips, 10,000 chips or 1 million chips," says IBMscientistHerbert Schorr. "But the question of how to organize 1millionchips to doanythingeffectivelyis still veryopen."Despitethepromise of theradical designs,

yon

Neumann's imprint on thecomputer world has yet to be erased.

WILLIAMD.

MARBACH

with WILLIAM J.

COOK

in Washington andJENNET R.

CONANT

in New York

" J _k"_L^». — — M-,~, says Browne. "If one processor wants to talk to aifISIQC lilC OUI3W-:CO]Ti|3Ut6]: certain memory, it can, in

effect,

dial it up." The* * schemeallowsformuchfaster speeds, justas thephone

TECHNOLOGYmuch as

$1

billion. DARPA plans to doeverything the Japanese have set out toaccomplish—and more. Earlier this yearDARPAproposeda "StrategicComputingand Survivability" project, which it hopeswill lead to a variety of new machines."Wewant somearchitecturesthatare goodfor buildingsemanticmemories, memoriesthat can holdknowledge," says DARPA'scomputer director, Robert Kahn. "Otherkinds ofsystems are goodfor logic process-ing. We want architecturesthat candoveryrapidsignalprocessing [and]structures thatcanhandlevery, very largeamounts ofdatain communications."

Oncetheyare inplace,these technologieswillmakepossibleanastonishingnewbreedof weapons and military hardware. Smartrobot weapons—drone

aircraft,

unmannedsubmarines and land vehicles—that com-bine artificial intelligence and high-powered computing can be sent off to dojobsthatnowinvolvehumanrisk. "This isavery sexy areato the military,because youcan imagine all kinds of neat, interestingthingsyou couldsend offon theirown littlemissions around the worldor even in localcombat," says Kahn. The Pentagon willalso usethetechnologiesto createartificial-intelligencemachines that can be used asbattlefield advisers and superintelligentcomputers to coordinatecomplex weaponssystems. An intelligent missile-guidancesystem would have to bring together dif-ferent technologics—real-time signalproc-essing, numerical calculations and sym-bolic processing, all at unimaginablyhighspeeds—inorder tomake decisionsandgiveadvice to human commanders.

HankMorgan

A Control Data Cyber 205supercomputer:Blistering speeds

industry, the market for so-called RAM has allocated

$30

million next year. The(random access memory) chips, a technol- goal: "To assure long-term survival in theogy invented in America. Japan nowsup- market," says Larry Sumney, SRC's exec-plies 70 percentof all 64K RAM's sold, and utive director.it appears that as the next generationof ■ DARPA. The Pentagon's Defense Ad-memorychips, the 256K RAM's, is being vanced Research Projects Agencyreadiedfor market, the Japanesesemicon- (DARPA) is, more than any other singleductorcompaniesare threatening to take a agency in the world, responsible for thebig shareofsales.ltmakesforagrimremind- shape of advanced computer science to-er: a decade ago, before an all-outgovern- day—and for many technologies now inmentproject tobuild up the industry, Japa- widespread commercial use. Over thepastnesesemiconductorfirms laggedfar behind 20 years,DARPA has pouredhalfa billionAmericanandEuropeanchipcompanies. dollarsinto computerresearch, inthe proc-

Last year 13 U.S. chip manufacturers ess virtuallycreating the scienceofartificialand computer companiesbanded together intelligence.The first supercomputer, builtto form a nonprofit research consortium, in 1964, was a DARPA project. Computerthe Semiconductor Research Corp. (SRC), timesharing, a fundamental advance,cameto share the spiraling costs of advanced out of work sponsoredby DARPA; so didresearch anddevelopment.SRC's founders packet-switchednetworks, the workhorsesinclude Control Data Corp., Digital of today's telecommunications data net-EquipmentCorp., Hewlett-Packard, IBM, works.And computer graphics—nowusedIntel and Motorola. Unlike

MCC,

how- on desktop computers and video-arcadeever,

SRC,

which is headquartered at screens as well as in F-16 cockpits—is aResearch TrianglePark in North

Carolina,

DARPA-sponsored invention.

While national-securityneeds are driv-ing supercomputing technologies,

there is a growing market for commercialspinoffs. The same technologythat can beused to simulatean antitankmissilesmash-ing into a heavilyarmoredtankcan alsobeput to work on less martial arts. In LosAngeles,DigitalProductions,;Inc., is usingaCray supercomputer toproduce televisioncommercials for Mattel, rock video seg-

does not carry out its own research. In- DARPA's next priority is a push forstead, it sponsors research at universities, advancedsupercomputingand artificial-in-SRC is spending $12 millionthis yearand telligence technologies that may cost as

Usingsupercomputersfordesign:Solidmodelingofahuman head, jetlinerandstressona metalcylinderasit strikesa metal bar

Courtesy SDRC

Courtesy SDRC John 0. Hallquist—Lawrence Livermore Lab

NEWSWEEK/JULY

4,

198362

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*.

Jill St. Johntalksabout her first time.

see, he was Italian, and outstanding men, and theythey just seem to know all knew one or two new waysabout these things. to enjoy it. I prefer "The Exotic."INTERVIEWER: Go on. Jhafs Campari with grape-

fruit juice.SLJ

a°HrN: H_ T V6r_ INTERVIEWER: Well, youromantic. He leaned , . y ,

close and whispered, seem to have come a long"Gingerly?" way since your ~"Well," I said, "I've never firsttime - Jbeen shy about any- ST JOHN: What I 3' .. . . y . _ ... s«nc rAiathing before." He gave can I say? It's ;

me a charming grin, hard to resistthenordered a Gingerly somethingfor me... that's Campari, when it just

i ginger ale and soda. keeps gettingAnd a Campari and better andsodafor himself. better.

INTERVIEWER: A little

©i

983 -imported

ST JOHN: My first time was in can... how interesting. Weil, how ZSuSL)Tre Scalini, an adorable sidewalk was it? /(j >" \ .-, j icafe in Rome.

__.

w a. , .

r

. wjmw f~

' '

ST JOHN: Very satisfying afterINTERVIEWER: Oh, really? Right that long,out in the open? delicious!

hot day. See, it wasdeliciously light. . . and so

ST JOHN: Sure... you see, I'm ref^ shin9; A yerV sPebasically an outdoorsy type of cial experience.

INTERVIEWER: Did you everperson.

INTERVIEWER: Isee. You must tell have ,l a9aln?me all about it. stjohm-Of r.ST JOHN: Of course... manySTJOHN: Well, wewere justrelax- times. It'sing after a hard day of shooting. not the kindJust me and the crew. It hap- of thing youpened with the stunt man. try once and

INTERVIEWER: The stunt man?! about^lvtThatsounds a bit risky! gone QutST JOHN: Oh, it wasn't, really. You with someCampari was made.to be mixed. It's a bright, 48° proofrefreshing spirit, imported from Italy, with a combinationofnatural flavors and aromasunknown to any other spirit. Foryour first time, mix it with orange juice. Then enjoy it withgrapefruit juice, gingerale, soda, tonic, or whitewine. Overice, of course CAMPARI. Thesmart mixable!

You'll never forget your first time

mix of Italian and Ameri- KSy'sa

"

r/f"

rw-rg

- g^\ was alreadyAmerica'smost respected intelligence officerwhenJ. UC 6__.>U.l3C_*CO___l3Vlt^_* V^___3J_* Ronald Reaganpersuadedhim tobecomedeputydirector of the

«■ ■*" PT A in IQQI t_\r tVi_a tirvnaT*-»r*-_o*-_

rocmi.£./_

lacf

_r__o*-_

nofflw

_-**_

x **" CIA in 1981. By the timeInman resigned last year—partly toBobby Ray Inmanbrings uniquequalificationsto his new job earnenough money to put his two sons throughcollege,partly

as computer czar, not least of which is that he thinks like a because he disagreed with some covert-action schemes—hiscomputer. As headofMicroelectronicsand ComputerTechnol- reputation had soared. Rep. Albert Gore Jr. says Inman'sogyCorp. , Inmanwill haveto holdtogetheradozencompetitive greatesttalentisto takecomplicatedissuesand ''clarify,clarify,companies,goheadto headwithJapanInc.andbuildamassive clarify." Inman'sstraight talkand lackofpolitical deviousnessresearch effort from scratch, goingfrom zero to

$75

million in madehima darlingofCongress duringhistenureat the CIA. Byseconds flat. If he succeeds, it will be the result of a highly naminghim, MCC guaranteeditself a friendly ear on Capitolanalyticalmindhoned duringtwodecadesofintelligencework. Hill. The consortiumraises troubling antitrust questions, but"He has a way oflookingfor the

facts,

for the realityofthings, Washingtonis goingtofeel morecomfortable with the squeaky-rather than coloring the situation," says FBI Director William clean Inman incharge.H. Webster, a bureaucratically during Inman's 16 months as 'Eccentric': Inman says his chief role at MCC is therecruit-deputydirector of theCIA. "In a way, that'swhat a computer ing, careand feeding ofscientists. His first task, hesays, will bedoes.A computer doesn'thave any romance to it. It seeks the to hire achiefscientist who is not only "somebody in whom Itruth through an analyticalprocess." have complete confidence on the technical side," but also

Inman, 52, was not trained as a scientist—he majored in someonewho is "comfortable with my eccentric way of run-history at the University ofTexas—but ning things." That may be difficult: ahespent acareersurroundedbycomput- Inman:The spymaster takesa new guise former associate says Inman's "flashers during his 30 years in the Navy. point is very, very low when he is con-Working onthestaffofnaval operations fronted with somebodywho approachesin the early 19605,Inmanbecamedeeply 9 a problem in a way that differs frominvolvedintechnicalintelligence-collec- 9 what he prefers." There are

fears,

too,tionactivities andthereforethe high-tech 9 that he maynot put enough emphasisworld of computers, telecommunica- on research. "If [MCC] becomes tootionsand aerospace. "By sheer happen- development-oriented, to meet thestance, I got involvedin how you make Bp|* pressing short-term needs ofits corpo-sense ofsheer volumesofraw data," he 9 rate shareholders, it is going to vitiatesays. "Additionaljobskept coming, and BB [itself]," says Michael L. Dertouzos, athey tended to be more and morecom- computer scientist at MIT. After 30plex."Hebecamedirectorofnavalintel- 9 years in the military, Inmanmight findligence in 1974, deputy director of the L, 9 the world of private high tech a bitDefenseIntelligenceAgencyin 1976and *4PW I frustrating at

first,

but he says he plansheadof theNationalSecurity Agencyin B a collegial style of management that1977. The

NSA,

which monitors com- 9 !_■___: W_ breaks down bureaucratic barriers—munications throughout the world and ISI. anc* c can't wait to start. "Intelligencecracks foreign codes, not onlyowns and 9 work tends to focus on defining theoperatessomeoftheworld'smostsophis- 9 problem," he says. "Youreach a stageticated computers but also is a leading .JgM in your life when you are interested ininnovatorincomputertechnology. 9 jr9 the solutionof theproblem."

Inmanwas not chosen forhis new job 9 Bl johnbrecher with elaineshannonfor his technical knowledge alone. He ■ in Washington

ments for Turner Broadcastingand special thoughsupercomputersrightnowaremain- million—the market will remain limited,effects for Lorimar's "Star Fighter" space lybeingusedbyspecialists," saysTakamitsu Japan'sFifth Generationproject, however,epic, which will be released next summer. Tsuchimoto, Fujitsu Corp.'s development planstobuild"superpersonalcomputers."Instead of shootinga commercial the con- managerfor supercomputers, "we believe These huge increases in raw computerventional way—a costly photo session— thatin thenext sto 10years theywillbeused powerare just thefirst step. The most pro-Digital can create the "pictures" it needs by a lotofordinarypeople, so wewanted to found changesbroughtby thenew technol-in detail so precise that it's impossible designa machine [they could use] without ogies willbe the developmentofreasoningto distinguishbetweenthe supercomputer's makinggreatefforts." computersthatwilluse superspeed symbolgraphicimageandthereal photo.For inani- Designing a supercomputer is no easy manipulationto simulate human thought,mate objects, that is: theCray- 1/Scansimu- task.America'spremier supercomputer de- "We are about to see the next explosion,latea car right downto the glintofsunlight signer is Seymour Cray, 57, who designed which is the application of computers toon the windshield, but not ahumanbeing. theCray-1 andthebasicarchitectureofCon- reasoning," says Stanford University com-

As the commercial market grows, the trolData'sCyber 205.TheCray X-MP con- puter scientist Edward A. Feigenbaum,Japanesebelieve that theirstrategyofbuild- tainsa densepackof240,000siliconchips ar- who is. a founder of two artificial-intel-ing supercomputersfor thegeneral-purpose rangedtoshortenthedistancestheelectrical ligence companies, Teknowledge Inc. andmarket willpay off. During the past year signalsmust travel,thereby decreasingthe

IntelliGenetics,

andcoauthorofa newbookFujitsu, Hitachi and NEC have each an- timeit takes to perform an operation; the on Japan's challenge, "The Fifth Genera-nounced supercomputers faster than the newCrayX-MP's willrun at400 millionop- tion."The field is not new: scientists in themost powerfulAmerican machinesnowon erations per second. And Japan's super- United States havebeen studying artificialthe market, the Cray X-MP and Control speed goalis 10 billion operationsper sec- intelligencefor 25 years, struggling to un-Data's Cyber 205. Moreover, all three are ond. (An Apple liecomputer contains 31 derstandthe nature of knowledgeand howdesignedto use the standard Fortran lan- chips and can execute 500,000 operations to represent it in forms adaptableto com-guage, lifted from ordinary mainframe per second.) Because of the cost of super- puter usage,computers, butat much faster speeds. "Al- computers—Cray's X-MP will sell for

$1

1 Limited forms ofartificial intelligenceare

NEWS WEEK/JULY

4,

1983 63

TECHNOLOGYalreadyenjoyingcommercialsuccess. Digit-al Equipment Corp., the nation's secondlargest computer

firm,

uses an AI programcalledX-CONtomakecustomdesignsofitscomputer systems. Using a setofmorethan2,500 rales programmed into the system,X-CON examines a customer's specifica-tions, determineswhether all thenecessarycomponentsareincluded,thendrawsasetofdiagrams showing the proper spatial rela-tionships among the components.

Scientists studying artificial intelligencehave been aided by advances in computerhardware, too. In 1980 a group left MlT'sArtificial IntelligenceLaboratorytofoundacompany, Symbolics Inc., of Cambridge,Mass., to build computers specially de-signed torun

LISP,

a language used to de-velop artificial-intelligenceprograms, andXeroxhas begun to sell similar computers.Symbolicshasbeen sellingits machines, theSymbolics3600, to abroadrange ofuniver-sity and industrial research labs. The com-pany hasanothercustomeraswell: the man-agers running Japan's Fifth Generationprogram have bought 10 Symbolics ma-chines—andthey have 1 5 moreonorder.

In exploringthebrave new worldofarti-ficial intelligence, computer scientists

are concentrating on several importantproblems. "Knowledge engineers" arebuildingso-called expert systems that canmimic human expertise in a narrowly de-fined area. The firm of Teknowledge, inPalo Alto,

Calif.,

for example, has built anexpert system for the French Elf Acqui-taineOil

Co.,

a systemthatwill giveadviceon oneofthe industry's most costly techni-cal problems—what to do when a drillbitgets stuck thousands of feet below theearth's surface. To build the system, Tek-nowledgeengineersinterviewedElfAcqui-taine's top troubleshooter, Jacques-Marie

Courte,

and thenprogrammedhis answersinto a computer. The programis, in

effect,

a computer replica of Courte's expertise;the computer will ask the drilling-rigfore-men questions, justas Courte would.Onceit gathers the information it needs, thecomputer will make recommendationsbydrawing images on the screen and givingsuggestions on howto retrieve thebit. Be-cause daily drilling costs are high, ElfAc-quitaine may well recover the program'sdevelopmentcosts thefirst time it is usedsuccessfully.

General Electric is building a softwareprogramthat willprovide expertadviceonrepairinglocomotives.ThePentagonwouldlike to buildartificial-intelligenceprogramsthat could serveas a pilot's assistant in thecockpit. Stockbrokersandinsurance agentsmay also soon get help: "Some peoplearebeginning to see a gold mine in [buildingartificial-intelligence programs for] finan-cial services," says PatrickHenry Winston,chairman of MlT's Artificial IntelligenceLaboratory. And savvy softwaredesigners

64

Ira Wyman

MlT's Dertouzos: 'I startedpanicking'

for the personal-computer industry are be-ginning to look at artificial intelligence asthe nextbigwavethatwillsweep the market.

Despitethe successes, thereareproblemsahead as researchers attempt to move be-yond the buildingofnarrowlydefined"ex-perts." "There'salotofhard stuffout therewe just don't have the answers to," saysRoger

Schank,

directorofYaleUniversity'sArtificial Intelligence Laboratory. Com-putershave alwaysbeen maddeninglyliter-al machines,subject totheabsolutetyrannyof the binary codes they use to do theircalculations. (The switches are eitheron or

off,

simulatingonesorzeros, nothingelse.)That literal-mindedness can transform aproblem thatwouldseem trivialto humansintoanightmare.Consider thesimple state-ment "Mary had a littlelamb."For a com-

DARPA 's RobertKahn ToppriorityBruce Hoertel

puter to translatethe text into another lan-guage—a function scientists are now tryingto develop—it would have to sort throughwhat is, by one count, 28 possible interpre-tations. (Mary owned the lamb, Mary atethe lamb, Mary had sexual relations withthe lamb, Mary gavebirth to the lamb andon and on.)

The kindofunderstandinghumans expe-rience as a "flash of recognition" is alsodifficult to instill in a computer. The state-ment "Ronald Reagan is president" car-ries a numberof immediatemeaningsto aflesh-and-blood American, but a computerwouldhave to rummagethrough its siliconmemorychips in searchof dozensoffacts—what the word "president" means andbio-graphical facts and details that tell whoRonald Reagan is. And the biggest chal-lengeof all—teaching computers to learn,to acquireknowledge on theirown—is no-wherenearbeing solved.

Mankind has long been enchanted—and frightened—by the prospect of

creating machines that think. "I don'tseeany limitations to artificial intelligence,"says Nobel laureateHerbert

Simon,

profes-sor ofcomputer science andpsychology atCarnegie-Mellon. "All the mechanismsforhuman intelligence are present. Alreadymachines can think just like people—in alimited sense. Man isn't unique in thatre-spect." Moreover, many machines maysoon possess sight, touch, hearing (in theform ofvoice recognition)andspeech, thusimitatinghumans' sensory capacitiesalongwiththeir intellectualones. But wholeareasof the human thought process—volition,emotion, the creativeuses oferror—still liewell outside a computer's experience.Andscientists doingresearchon artificialintelli-gence are far from their ultimate goal—acomputer-basedanalogofthe humanbrain.Given themalign intelligenceof the super-computer HalinArthur C. Clarke'sfantasy"2001: A Space Odyssey," that may be justas well.

Still,

the race to build superintelligentcomputers—Japan'schallengeto the Unit-ed States—will almost certainly push thetechnology to new levels. "While at thebeginningIwasangryat JapanbecauseI feltthat theywereswipingourbest ideas,really,on secondthought, Icouldn'tblamethem,"says DertouzosofMIT. "AndI don'tblamethem today at all. I think they're doingexactly what they should." And the Japa-nese challengehas atlast spurred the Unit-ed States into action. "If wereally wakeup,I'm very optimistic," says Dertouzos. "Wecould beat the daylights out of them." Nooneknows where the competitionwill ulti-mately lead. But if the Merlins who areplotting the next computer revolution suc-ceed in building superintelligent comput-ers, Hal or, more welcome, "Star Wars'"R2-D2, won't seem so farfetched after all.

WILLIAMD.

MARBACH

with WILLIAM J.

COOK

in Washington, KIM WILLENSON in Tokyo,

RICHARD SANDZA

in

San

Francisco andFRANK

GIBNEY

Jr. and KIM

FOLTZ

in New York

NEWSWEEK/JULY

4,

1983

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