RULE THE MARKET

29TH FEBRUARY, 2020

ISSUE: 078

From The Desk Of Research Head

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There might be more tough times ahead

The third-quarter results of Indian Inc are disappointing. Owing to this fact the government may have a lot a do in order to boost the demand. It is clear that the deceleration in economic growth during the current financial year has affected the consumption and demand of Indian Inc. If we analyse the revenue growth figures of the listed companies, it gradually declined to zero by the third quarter for the majority of companies vs the third quarter of 2018. However, we shouldn’t cheer the 44 percent profitability growth of these companies as it was aided mainly due to the corporate tax cut in the last September.

If we categorically dissect the numbers, consumer durables, FMCG and automobile companies struggled to record any good profits. As the most real estate inventory in the residential category remained unsold, it affected its ancillary sectors such as steel, cement and sanitaryware. Engineering companies and capital goods manufacturers posted meagre profits as the governments have reduced their capital expenditure. If we see the banking sector, Net interest margins lowered for most of the banks except for a few private banks. The tedious process of the IBC and the low credit growth continue to be the challenges for the banking sector while the declining spends of the clients in the US and the European political uncertainty scenario is a concern for IT companies although it remains as a mixed bag. On the other hand, Vodafone Idea and Bharti Airtel, due to the higher provisioning for AGR dues and due to the losses of about ₹6,300 crore in the December 2019 quarter had posted aggregate losses of around ₹74,000 crore in the September quarter. The telecom sector is standing on the edge of a cliff due to the government’s policies. The Centre may need to revamp its policies to keep the corporate sentiment positive and to attract the FDIs.

Regular data sets such as credit growth, industrial production and auto sales suggest that it may be too early to hope for a dramatic recovery in the fortunes of Corporate India, while there are many domestic drivers that can help, such as the lower corporate tax rate, easing input prices and interest cost, a good rabi crop and higher food inflation helping rural consumption. However, the main catalyst would be the fallout of COVID-19 on the global economy. Lowered Chinese consumption may also hurt Indian exporters. Domestic commodity producers will suffer due to lower prices and those depending on China for supplies are likely to be affected. Considering these uncertain conditions, the government may need to be attentive to support companies in whatever way it can.

CONTENTSEquity 1-5

Commodity 6-9

Currency 10-12

TeamDr. Ravi Singh

Srinivas Krishnan Bobba

Osho Krishan

Sharath Kumar Jutur

Thomas V Abraham

Sachin Mittal

Veeresh Hiremath

Siddhesh Ghare

Arpit Chandna

Bharat Sunnam

Ramesh Chenchala

Kushal Asthana

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Analyst CertificationThe following Karvy Research Desk, who is (are) primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/ are mentioned therein, certify (ies) that the views expressed herein accurately reflect his (their) personal view(s) about the subject security (ies) and issuer(s) and that no part of his (their) compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report.

- DR. RAVI SINGHVice President & Head of Research

EQUITY

Agriculture• Harsimrat Kaur Badal launches a portal to monitor prices of onion, tomato and potato. The

government is aiming to strike balance between the interests of farm producers and consumers through this monitoring system that will generate nationwide database of agri commodities, said food processing minister Harsimrat Kaur Badal while launching the portal.

• Government says that sugar mills are yet to clear dues of Rs. 2400 Cr of last 2 seasons to cane growers. Depressed sugar prices due to surplus sugar production in two consecutive sugar seasons -- 2017-18 and 2018-19 -- adversely affected the liquidity of sugar mills resulting in accumulation of cane price arrears of farmers.

• The government has decided to lift ban on export of onions in view of bumper crops. Food and consumer affairs minister opined that the lifting of ban will help farmers get good prices as the March harvest is over 40% more than last year at 40 lakh tons.

Finance• The government’s last-mile financing support for stalled housing projects through a Rs

12,500-crore alternative investment fund (AIF) has gathered momentum and is expected to unlock around Rs 26,000 crore of capital stuck in these projects over the next one year, said the head of the company managing the fund. The special window which was announced by the finance minister in November 2019, has so far cleared projects with capital commitment of Rs. 540, providing relief for 1800 home buyers.

• In a move that will surely address the growing concerns among states, the centre released Rs 19,950 crore as GST compensation to states and Union Territories ahead of the GST council meet, thereby taking the total amount released to them to over Rs 1.2 lakh crore. Finance ministry officials said that In FY 2018-19, Rs 95,081 crore (Rs. 62611 Cr in FY18) was collected as GST compensation cess of which Rs 69,275 crore (Rs. 41146 Cr in FY18) was released to the states/UTs as GST compensation.

Auto• HPCL sets up first EV charging station in Gujarat’s Vadodara. The EV stops will be equipped to

charge two, three, and four-wheeler vehicles. With the installation of public charging stations, the range anxiety of EV owners is expected to reduce, which will increase the adoption of electric mobility. Increased access to charging infrastructure is vital for the uptake of electric mobility across the entire EV ecosystem.

• Toyota launches Vellfire, pins hopes on good demand for luxury brands. The Japanese automaker is ahead of the regulatory deadline to begin sales of only BSVI vehicles. The company’s manufacturing plant has already transitioned to 100% production of BS-VI vehicles and all dispatches from the plant became BS VI from the end of January 2020

• India’s competition regulator Competition Commission of India (CCI) is reviewing a compliant which alleges that Tata Motors and two finance firms of its $100 Bn parent group abused their market position while selling CVs. Its former dealer in North India Varanasi Auto Sales alleged that the company dictated terms around the quantity and type of vehicles the dealer should stock.

• Banking

• Real Estate loans worth Rs. 20000 are up for restructuring after RBI rules allowed banks and Housing finance companies to defer classification of troubled real estate borrowers as NPAs giving them one year time to restructure the loans. Data suggests that nearly 174,000 homes are stuck in seven big India cities. Buyers displayed aversion towards under-construction projects with share of completed properties in overall sales going up to 25% in 2019 as compared to 11% in 2014.

• Forensic report looking into irregularities into the affairs of IL&FS Transportation Networks India Ltd (ITNL) finds money laundering of over Rs. 6500 crore by erstwhile management of its parent IL&FS, identifying its former Chairman Ravi Parthasarathy as the ‘prime mover.’ The report also indicates that in at least 14 special purpose vehicles (SPVs) entered into by ITNL, there were deliberate cost overruns using a maze of shell and dummy companies to make them eventually untenable.

• Bank credit growth continues to be tepid. Total bank credit amounted to Rs 100.4 lakh crore, up 6.3% YoY, according to the latest figures released by the Reserve Bank of India. Incrementally credit was contracting until September. Several government initiatives pushed the growth rate in the positive zone subquently. But it has failed to see the double digit growth of the past several years.

FMCG• HUL to set up subsidiary to save tax. The new subsidiary with an authorized capital of Rs. 2000

crwill invest in new manufacturing units to leverage on enablers including corporate tax as well as ‘Make in India’ initiative. Management said that it will not move infrastructure from any of its existing 28 manufacturing facilities so as to invest in a completely new unit to take advantage of a lower tax rate of 15%. Management further indicated that in the first phase the company is looking to invest anywhere between Rs. 500 Cr and Rs. 800 Cr.

• The Delhi High Court has granted interim relief to Nestle India by ordering a stay on the payment of outstanding penalty that the National Anti-profiteering Authority has directed the company to pay. In its order dated February 10, the court said the company had already paid Rs 16.58 crore of the total demand of Rs 89.73 crore and clamped a stay on the recovery of the balance amount.

• Tata Consumer Products Ltd (TCPL)hopes to grow faster than the FMCG sector. Management indicated that the company has growth by 8% this year which is virtually double than the consumer goods industry. TCPL is looking to expand its reach with multiple products in its basket and hopes to reach out to more households so that they will be available in modern trade stalls as well as in small ones in the rural areas.

Realty/Infra• KEC International buys tower aking units in Dubai to expand Middle East Operations. With this

acquisition, KEC International sims to scale up its tower manufacturing capacity and expand its presence in the Middle East and Africa. This unit was previously owned by Gulf Jyoti International LLC Dubai, a joint venture of Jyoti Structures, which is currently undergoing insolvency proceedings in India, and Gulf Investment Corporation of Kuwait.

• Adani’s Rs. 400 Cr bid for posh Aditya Estates in Delhi gets NCLT approval. Business conglomerate Adani group has won a bid to acquire Aditya Estates Pvt Ltd, which holds a posh 3.4 acre residential property near Mandi House in the heart of the national capital, through an insolvency process for a total deal value of Rs 400 crore.

• NCLT directs Royal Partners to pay Rs. 420 Crto lenders of EPC Constructions. The dedicated bankruptcy court has directed Mauritius-based Royale Partners Investment Fund to pay Rs 420 crore to the lenders of the EPC Constructions India (formerly Essar Projects) and has also directed to issue the non-convertible debentures of Rs 480 crore as per the resolution plan approved by the lenders.

NEWS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

• UBS cuts Sergio Ermotti’s pay after French court blow, overhauls bonus scheme. UBS Chief Executive Sergio Ermotti, who is due to be replaced by ING head Ralph Hamers in November, was awarded a total 12.5 million Swiss francs ($12.8 million) in salary and bonus for 2019, down from 14.1 million francs the year before, the Swiss bank’s annual report showed on Friday.

• Bayer Chairman quits after making progress to settle litigation. Bayer, which is fighting claims its weedkiller Roundup causes cancer, said its Chairman Werner Wenning was stepping down because the drugs and crop protection company was making good progress in settlement talks.

• Starbucks to launch Beyond Meat plant-based sandwich in Canada. The deal intensifies the already heated rivalry between Beyond Meat and other plant-based meat producers - including Impossible Foods, Kellogg Co’s Morningstar Farms, Cargill Inc and Nestle SA’s Sweet Earth - which have been vying for shelf space at retailers and for deals with food service outlets.

TRENDSHEETSYMBOL CMP S2 S1 R1 R2 TREND

SENSEX 38297.29 36368 37333 40150 42002 Down

NIFTY 11219.20 10631 10925 11763 12306 Down

NIFTYBANK 29204.75 28002 28603 30254 31303 Down

KOTAKBANK 1237.90 1438 1338 1414 1590 Down

YESBANK 222.00 94 158 162 102 Down

RELIANCE 1232.35 1193 1213 1365 1497 Down

TCS 1925.65 1843 1884 2073 2220 Down

ITC 274.30 209 242 257 240 Down

AXISBANK 702.05 662 682 731 759 Down

TATASTEEL 502.30 378 440 500 497 Down

DRREDDY 2639.50 2582 2611 2963 3286 Down

TECHM 826.00 689 757 869 913 Down

HDFC 1887.40 1935 1911 2114 2341 Down

FORTHCOMING EVENTSCOMPANY NAME EVENT EX-DATE

BERGER PAINTS LTD Interim Dividend – Rs. 1.90 2 March 2020

NIIT LTD Interim Dividend – Rs. 8.00 2 March 2020

TECH MAHINDRA LTD Interim Dividend – Rs. 10.00 2 March 2020

Asian Paints Ltd Interim Dividend – Rs. 7.15 3 March 2020

BAJAJ AUTO LTD Interim Dividend – Rs. 120.00 3 March 2020

BAJAJ FINSERVE LTD Interim Dividend – Rs. 5.00 3 March 2020

BAJAJ HOLDING LTD Interim Dividend – Rs. 40.00 3 March 2020

BAJAJ FINANCE LTD Interim Dividend – Rs. 10.00 3 March 2020

APOLLO TYRES LTD Interim Dividend – Rs. 3.00 4 March 2020

KRBL Interim Dividend – Rs. 2.80 5 March 2020

DR. LALPATHLABS Interim Dividend – Rs. 6.00 5 March 2020

1KSTREET - 29TH FEBRUARY, 2020

INDIAN INDICES (% CHANGE)

GLOBAL INDICES (% CHANGE)

NIFTY MIDCAP100TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (1W)

SECTORAL INDICES (% CHANGE)

FII/FPI & DII TRADING (IN RS. CRORES)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (1W)

EQUITY

Source: Karvy Research

-5.0

-4.5

-4.0

-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0 Sensex

BSE Smallcap

Nifty

BSE Midcap

Nifty M

idcap 100

Nifty N

ext 50

-9.0

-8.0

-7.0

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0 Nifty FM

CG

Nifty Bank

Nifty Services Sector

Nifty C

onsumption

Nifty IT

Nifty Realty

Nifty Pharm

a

Nifty Energy

Nifty A

uto

Nifty M

etal

-12.0

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0 Hang Seng

Shanghai Com

p

FTSE 100

CA

C 40

Nikkei

Nasdaq

S&P 50

0

Dow

Jones

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

PFIZER LIMITED

V G

UA

RD IN

DU

STRIES LTD

RAJESH

EXPO

RTS LTD

CO

ROM

ON

DEL

INTERN

ATIO

NA

L LTD

VA

RUN

BEVERA

GES LTD

GO

DREJ A

GRO

VET LTD

PNB H

OU

SING

FINA

NC

E LTD

BALA

KRISH

NA

IND

USTRIES

LTD

GRA

PHITE IN

DIA

LTD

PRESTIGE ESTA

TES LTD

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0 ASIA

N PA

INTS LTD

HIN

DU

STAN

UN

ILEVER LTD

YES BAN

K LTD

HD

FC BA

NK

LTD

BRITAN

NIA

IND

USTRIES

LTD

TATA

STEEL LTD

JSW STEEL LTD

TATA

MO

TORS LTD

HIN

DA

LCO

IND

USTRIES

LTD

VED

AN

TA LTD

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

24-02-2020 25-02-20 26-02-20 27-02-20 28-02-20

FII/FPI DII

2KSTREET - 29TH FEBRUARY, 2020

% OF SHAREHOLDING

in Rs.Mn ACTUAL ESTIMATE

Y/E Mar (Rs Mn) FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

Net Revenues 76728 79294 87706 98025

EBITDA 19830 21426 24607 28620

EBITDA margin(%) 25.8 27.0 28.1 29.2

Net Profit 7933 9282 11769 15145

Reported Net Profit 4363 9282 11769 15145

EPS(Rs) 46.9 54.8 69.5 89.5

PER(x) 47.7 40.8 32.1 25.0

EV/EBITDA (x) 21.5 19.4 16.5 13.8

RoE(%) 9.3 18.6 20.8 23.2

BEAT THE STREET - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Relaxo Footwears Ltd. CMP Rs.696Target Price Rs.809Upside 16%

VALUE PARAMETERSFace Value (Rs.) 1.0

52 Week High/Low (Rs.) 830/357

M.Cap (Rs. Bn/US $mn) 172.7/2.3

EPS (Rs.) 7.1

P/E Ratio (times) (FY20E) 49.7

Dividend Yield (%) 0.65

Stock Exchange NSE/BSE

EQUITY

Investment Rationale

• Relaxo continues to be underpenetrated in the West and South of India. Select products are sold in this region and the company is looking at extending its product portfolio in the area.

• The company operates at better economics than even market leaders.

• We believe that the company’s efforts to scale up its distribution should help narrow the revenue gap between itself and the market leader in the coming years.

• Increase in value added products has helped sustain growth in recent years. Over the 9M period, gross margins improved ~269bps on YoY basis.

• Strong balance sheet, better return ratios than even the market leaders, proven management track record and efforts to premiumise products, have aided in sustaining valuations

• Increase in import duty in the budget 2020 will aid in increasing Relaxo’s competitiveness in the lower price range footwear segment (Relaxo’s key market).

• Additionally, the company is also availing the reduction in tax rates announced in Q3FY20. As a result, we expect 16% growth in topline & 40% growth in bottomline on CAGR basis over FY19-21.

Valuation

We value the stock at 58x on FY21E EPS of Rs. 13.9. Key risks to the call are longer time frame for revival in the economy, and increased competition from the unorganized space.

RELATIVE PERFORMANCE

71.0

2.9

6.2

19.9

Promoters

FII

DII

Others

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

220.0

240.0

Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Feb-20

Sensex Relaxo Footwears Ltd.

3KSTREET - 29TH FEBRUARY, 2020

EQUITY

BEAT THE STREET - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

State Bank of India

SBIN has witnessed good recovery from its recent correction and swing low of 245 odd levels in the past few months and is currently placed around 300 levels. The stock has gained more than 40% over last few months; we expect this outperformance to continue for the next month as well. Over last four months, the stock has broken its long term down trend cycle and has moved into the cycle of higher highs and higher lows and is on the verge of making double bottom and is sustaining well above the pattern indicates down trend has stopped. It is one of the few stocks in NIFTY 50 which has seen a very sharp rally and has moved nearly 40% from the recent lows of 245, indicating a probable shift of money into this sector. The price magnitude, trading volumes, delivery volumes over last couple of weeks are higher on the up moves, when compared to down moves, which also adds to our bullish view. Its derivative activity for the month of January and February is very strong and seen a good rollovers into March series post massive correction in the domestic market indicating stock may trade with bullish bias in the near term. Currently, stock has seen some correction post Budget session followed by the mayhem spread due the corona virus on global level and is placed near to the support zone of the unfilled gap on daily chart suggesting a good opportunity to invest in the counter from medium term perspective. On daily charts, the RSI is also hovering around the oversold regions adding to our bullish view. On the Bollinger Band set up on daily chart, the stock is trading near the lower band for over last few weeks and the band has narrowed indicating a sign of reversal and burst can be expected in terms of volatility and the current upward momentum is likely to continue.

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd

MARUTI has seen trading in line with NIFTYAUTO in the last month and is one of the preferred pick from the auto sector mainly due to the fall of over 10% on monthly basis which placed it near to the long term support zone. The stock has been in the secular downtrend on the weekly charts and has closed the previous month in negative post a massive rally from the lows of 5450 to the high of 7760 odd levels in recent period, indicating overall strength in the counter from long term perspective. The stock has corrected over 18% in the past few months and is currently hovering near to its multi-year support zone indicating a good buy from medium term perspective. The stock is hovering near to its 50 % retracement drawn from the lows of 3190 to the all time high of 9996 odd levels on weekly chart which confirm our bullish view in the stock. On technical setup, the 14 period RSI is placed near the oversold region suggesting a sign for reversal in near future. At the same time the recent correction in the counter from the recent high of 7000 odd levels to the current levels of 6200-6230 levels may be considered as an opportunity for accumulation from medium term perspective. The recent development in the stock suggests that the stock is well placed to take it up move. The support is placed around the strong psychological support of 6000 followed by 5790-5800 zone. Whereas, minor resistance is placed at placed at 7000 levels and above that is 7200 levels. Holding our bullish view in the stock and expecting that up move.

STOCK SBIN

CMP 305

ENTRY 298-302

AVERAGE 290

STOP LOSS 275

TARGET 1 340

TARGET 2 350

TIME FRAME 3-4 weeks

STOCK MARUTI

CMP 6924

ENTRY 6280-6290

AVERAGE 5800

STOP LOSS 5650

TARGET 1 7000

TARGET 2 7200

TIME FRAME 3-4 weeks

4KSTREET - 29TH FEBRUARY, 2020

EQUITY

SECTORAL SNIPPETS

NIFTYAUTO has underperformed the benchmark index Nifty 50 on week to week basis and ended the week on a negative note with fall of around 10.25%. The index has witnessed a massive correction from the recent swing high of 8450-8460 levels from past few consecutive weeks and retraced below to its 38.20% of the Fibonacci and where it has been hovering from past couple of days, supported by increase in average traded volumes indicating weakness at lower technical levels for the time being. Major heavyweights have witnessed plunged in price ahead of the sales data from the highs and have contributed in the movement for the index. On weekly chart the index has witnessed resistance from its recent swing high and has plunged from the same majorly due to the threat possessed because to corona virus worldwide. On charts, the immediate support for the index is pegged around 6750-6780 level breaching, below which the next support could be seen around 6680-6700 levels. While on the contrary, the resistance is pegged around 7200-7250 level which is the recent swing high, followed by 7400 odd zone which is the next crucial resistance levels for the index. On oscillator front, the index has witnessed resistance at the higher band of the Bollinger band (20, 2) has plunged lower to the lower band, at the same time the band has started getting broader indicating a higher probability of index to burst or to be volatile in near future, this is further being supported by the 14 period RSI which is placed around 32-46 levels and is likely to take support near the same looking at the historical data and trend suggesting some pullback may be witnessed in the coming trading day. Going forward for the coming week, it is advisable to trade cautiously in the counter as stock specific action could be seen ahead monthly sales data and global cues.

NIFTY IT has underperformed the benchmark index and has closed with massive loss of around 8.26%, while Nifty 50 index which has lost around 7.13% during the same period. Index has seen selling pressure from last couple of days which was being supported by increase in average traded volumes indicating inherent weakness in the overall counter. The Index is hovering below all its major EMAs of 21, 50, 100 and 200 days on daily charts as well as on weekly charts, indicating the momentum in the index to remain strong in short to medium term. Technically, the index is trading below the lower band of keltner channel which is signalling continuation in the trend for the index for at least near to short term. As long as index is trading below the 200 DEMA placed around 15710 levels, it is poised to be in bear grip and may test the ATR or the midline of the channel in the weeks to come by, which is around 15700-15750 levels. On Bollinger band (20, 2) index is currently hovering near to the lower line on weekly charts, and below the median line on daily charts. On the indicator front 14 period RSI on weekly charts has taken a huge dip and pointing southwards and has at the same time has fell below 30 levels, indicating the bearishness is intact in the counter, which may take index to the towards the swing lows of 14850-15000 levels. For now supports may be assumed at 15000 levels and below at 14800 levels, while resistance may be at assumed at 15600 levels followed by 15800-16000 levels.

NIFTY BANK outperformed the Nifty even after posting a loss of 5.62% during the week passed by while the broader index Nifty lost by 7.13%. From December 2019, the index after witnessing correction from 32600 levels is forming lower lows indicating the bears firm grip on the index. However, the index may resume its bullish bias if it crosses and sustains above 29700 levels. In a recent development, Bank credit growth continues to be tepid as the slowdown continues to grip the economy. The latest numbers released by the Reserve Bank of India show that loans grew by just 6.3 per cent year-on-year during the latest fortnight ended February 14. The fiscal year is expected to end with a credit growth of 6-7 per cent, which will be the lowest in 58 years. A shift of large borrowers such as non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) and housing finance companies (HFCs) to the banking system for their funding requirements had boosted bank credit growth in FY2019. However, factors such as muted economic growth, lower working capital requirements, as well as risk aversion among lenders, have compressed the incremental credit growth in FY2020. On the other hand, to ease the burden on telcos, RBI requested the government to allow telecom companies to stagger their payment of dues to the government over the next two-three years. RBI’s monetary policy committee had also cautioned about the impact of tariff hikes on inflation. On the stock-specific front, all the stocks in the index closed in red during the week. Among the losers, PNB, ICICIBANK and IDFCFIRSTB lost by 8.89% and 8.68% respectively. As indicated by the derivatives data, BankNifty may face resistance at 30000 levels followed by 30500 levels. For the week ahead, support for the index can be pegged at 29000 levels followed by 28500 levels.

NIFTY FMCG outperformed the Nifty with a loss of 4.33% during the week passed by while the broader index Nifty lost by 7.13%. From January 2020, the index after witnessing correction from 31550 levels is forming lower lows indicating the bears firm grip on the index. However, the index may resume its bullish bias if it crosses and sustains above 29660 levels. The Nifty FMCG index has gained marginally so far in 2020, faring better compared to the 2.8% decline in the broader Nifty 50 index. This is at a time when December quarter results of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies are far from encouraging. The demand slowdown is hitting hard and companies are seeking to persuade the Indian consumers. On the stock-specific front, all the stocks in the index closed in red during the week. Among the losers, GODREJCP, TATAGLOBAL and GODREJIND lost by 10.33%, 8.33% and 7.14% respectively. The index may face resistance at 29660 levels followed by 30025 levels. For the week ahead, support for the index can be pegged at 29150 levels followed by 29000 levels.

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

NIFTY (11219.20): Indian equity benchmark index Nifty 50 closed lower by 7.13% during the week. During the last week, the index witnessed correction

from 12150 levels towards the low of 11175 levels. Technically, from January 2020, the index after witnessing correction from 12430 levels is forming lower

lows indicating the bear’s firm grip on the index. However, the index may resume its bullish bias if it crosses and sustains above 11500 levels. The global

markets witnessed heavy selling during the week as fears over the spread of the coronavirus globally drove investors to safety. The rapid spread of the

coronavirus outside of China, where the disease was first reported, has weighed on sentiment in recent days over its potential impact on economic

growth and corporate earnings. Global stocks are set for their worst week since the financial crisis in 2008, with the MSCI World index down 9%, while

the pan-European Stoxx 600 is on course for its worst week since August 2011. European stocks entered correction territory on Thursday, falling 10%

below the record highs seen on Feb 2019. In the week ahead, markets participants may lay their focus on Manufacturing PMI (Feb) releasing on Mar 2nd,

Services PMI (Feb) data releasing on Mar 4th. On the derivatives front, open interest data suggests that the index may find its supports around 11200

followed by 11000 levels while on the higher side, 11500 and 12000 levels may act as strong resistance.

5KSTREET - 29TH FEBRUARY, 2020

COMMODITIES

BULLIONIn the last trading week of the February month, the global bullion market had witnessed a very volatile movement. It started the week with a bang rising to fresh seven years high on international market testing a high of $1691.70 per troy ounce. Spreading of corona virus beyond China and with cases reporting from the countries such as Italy, Iran and South Korea as well as increasing fresh cases and deaths in China had attracted safe-haven buying the yellow metal. Moving in line with international market, MC gold futures for April delivery hit a fresh all time high of Rs. 43788 per 10 grams. However, the gains were not sustained in other trading days as the market participants liquidated their long positions despite of increasing impact of corona virus, which had became pandemic spreading into more than 52 countries by the week and death toll rising more than 2800. This situation is turning the global economic condition into a recession, if it is not controlled immediately. Though the International Monetary Fund has lowered the world economic growth projections by 0.1% to 3.3% for 2020 in its January month report, it is further lower the growth projections in their next World Economic Outlook report aftermath of corona virus. The U.S. Federal Reserve, which was favouring for maintaining a status quo on its interest rates is likely to slash the same to keep the U.S. on growth trajectory. Sell off in the global equity market was seen during the week with Dow Jones falling by 11%, dollar index falling from multiyear and U.S. 10-year treasuty yields declining to their all time lows gave support to the bullion market. Investors are pricing in an increased chance the European Central Bank will cut interest rates sooner rather than later, reflecting heightened fears that the virus will spread and hit the euro zone economy hard. CME gold futures are heading for first weekly decline in last three week retreating from fresh seven year high made in the beginning of the week.

BASE METALSThe base metals complex had witnessed a negative trend during the week ended on 28th February 2020 due to raising demand concerns from China and major consuming nations due to spreading of corona virus, which has resulted into building up of inventories. Global aluminium demand fell last year for the first time since the global financial crisis. Expectations of a demand recovery rested on China, which showed encouraging signs of a manufacturing revival towards the end of 2019. London zinc prices dropped to their lowest in more than three-and-a-half years as rising inventories stoked fears of oversupply. Funds have given up on their early-year hopes for higher copper prices. Investors have turned bearish on the CME copper contract, slashing long positions and putting on fresh bets for lower prices. The net money manager short is now back at levels last seen in the third quarter of 2019, when market sentiment hit a “trade war” trough. The outbreak will likely delay development of nickel projects in Indonesia worth about $11 billion. The LME lead market is experiencing its most severe and prolonged period of tightness in almost a decade. Stocks of lead registered with the LME are flat-lining near historic lows and nearby spreads are both volatile and elevated. Copper stocks in warehouses approved by the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose to a three-month high at 221,425 tonnes, latest data showed. In China, inventories in warehouses tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) have surged 120% in five weeks to a near two-year high at 298,619 tonnes by the end of last week. Shanghai bonded warehouses’ copper inventories also rose to their six-month high at 330,500 tonnes, according to data provided by the Shanghai Metals Market. China should stockpile some non-ferrous metals to take the pressure off producers whose sales have been drying up because of the country’s coronavirus outbreak,

according to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA). Shanghai aluminium prices dropped to their lowest in more than a year, as the coronavirus outbreak in top consumer China stoked worries about a demand slump and high inventories.

ENERGYIt was a blood bath week for the global oil market with WTI prices plunging by 15% and Brent 13.50% Wek-on-Week due to fall in global oil demand becusae of virus impact. The spreading of corona virus beyond China with number of cases increasing in South Korea, Italy and Iran is weighing on the global crude oil market as this epidemic will lower the oil consumption across the globe. Demand concerns savaged prices for oil and a whole swathe of industrial commodities. In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Americans should prepare for possible community spread of the virus. Oil output in Libya has fallen sharply since Jan. 18 because of a blockade of ports and oil fields by groups loyal to eastern-based commander Khalifa Haftar. Saudi Arabia’s energy minister that he was confident that OPEC and its partners would respond responsibly to the spread of the coronavirus. According to EIA, the weekly U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 452,000 barrels in the week ended on 21st February 2020. he crude market was also watching for possible deeper output cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+. OPEC+ plans to meet in Vienna over March 5-6. With new infections reported around the world now surpassing those in mainland China, the World Health Organization said that all countries need to prepare to combat the coronavirus. The oil market is hoping for steeper supply cuts by the OPEC and its allies including Russia, who have said they will take a responsible approach in the wake of the virus outbreak. The producer group known as OPEC+, which is currently reducing output by roughly 1.2 million barrels per day to support prices, is set to meet in Vienna on March 5-6.

6KSTREET - 29TH FEBRUARY, 2020

COMMODITIES

GOLD

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

SILVER

CRUDE OIL

As on 28th February 2020, Gold April contract delivery futures at the MCX platform are trading around 42430/10grams. At present price are trading above the weekly and the daily 8,13 EMA support levels of 41800 and 41200 respectively however prices are deviated from the averages nearly 6%. The weekly stochastic and MACD is providing positive sings. Overall bullish trend is in progress thus technical correction is due from the current levels.Recommendations:Gold April MCX: Buy 41800-419000 TP 43500 SL below 41200

As on 28th February 2020, Silver May 2020 contract delivery futures at the MCX platform are trading around Rs 45800/kg. Since last three consecutive months prices are not able to breach the support level of 44500 and also rebounding from the same levels. The weekly stochastic and MACD is providing positive sings. Overall bullish trend is in progress and prices are expected to move higher thus we recommend building long positions on dips.Recommendations: Silver March MCX: Buy at 45000-45100 TP 443000 SL below 44000

As on 28th February 2020, Crude Oil March 2020 contract delivery futures at the MCX platform are trading around Rs 3270/barrel. Prices have breached the long term consolidation phase support levels around Rs 3600 and hovering below the same. At present prices are trading below the weekly and daily EMA support levels of Rs 3350-3400 levels but prices are witnessing high deviation from the averages nearly 6%. The momentum oscillators are providing negative clues and at the same time it has approached the oversold zone. Thus any rebound towards the moving averages we recommend to sell. Recommendations:Crude Oil March MCX: Sell at 3400-3450 TP 3000 SL below 3620

TRENDSHEET

Commodities 21-Feb 28-Feb % Change 52 Week High% Change from 52

Week High52 Week Low

% Change from 52 Week Low

MCX Gold (Rs/10 gms) 42666.0 42429.0 -0.6% 43788.00 -3.10% 31232.00 35.85%

MCX Silver (Rs/Kg) 48304.0 45350.0 -6.1% 50672.00 -10.50% 35826.00 26.58%

MCX Crude Oil (Rs/bbl) 3859.0 3269.0 -15.3% 4692.00 -30.33% 3263.00 0.18%

MCX Natural Gas (Rs/mmBtu) 137.4 121.5 -11.6% 205.90 -40.99% 119.60 1.59%

MCX Copper (Rs/kg) 430.3 418.0 -2.8% 468.65 -10.81% 399.55 4.62%

MCX Lead (Rs/kg) 143.5 144.6 0.8% 169.90 -14.92% 123.80 16.76%

MCX Zinc (Rs/kg) 162.6 150.5 -7.4% 233.65 -35.59% 149.50 0.67%

MCX Nickel (Rs/kg) 932.3 885.0 -5.1% 1314.80 -32.69% 825.60 7.19%

MCX Aluminium (Rs/kg) 138.0 133.9 -2.9% 158.25 -15.39% 128.00 4.61%

NCDEX Soybean (Rs/Quintal) 3982.0 3720.0 -6.6% 4506.00 -17.44% 3454.00 7.70%

NCDEX Refined Soy Oil (Rs/10 kg) 823.6 770.0 -6.5% 955.00 -19.37% 719.55 7.01%

NCDEX RM Seed (Rs/Quintal) 3922.0 4002.0 2.0% 4744.00 -15.64% 3711.00 7.84%

MCX CPO (Rs/10 kg) 710.6 692.0 -2.6% 839.80 -17.60% 491.30 40.85%

NCDEX Castor Seed (Rs/Quintal) 3900.0 3732.0 -4.3% 6102.00 -38.84% 3672.00 1.63%

NCDEX Turmeric (Rs/Quintal) 6144.0 6016.0 -2.1% 7360.00 -18.26% 5556.00 8.28%

NCDEX Jeera (Rs/Quintal) 13775.0 13565.0 -1.5% 18195.00 -25.45% 13450.00 0.86%

NCDEX Dhaniya (Rs/Quintal) 6191.0 5920.0 -4.4% 7688.00 -23.00% 5267.00 12.40%

MCX Cardamom (Rs/kg) 3074.8 2882.0 -6.3% 4265.30 -32.43% 1452.00 98.48%

NCDEX Wheat (Rs/Quintal) 2206.0 2100.0 -4.8% 2290.00 -8.30% 1770.00 18.64%

NCDEX Guar Seed (Rs/Quintal) 3774.0 3630.0 -3.8% 4508.00 -19.48% 3552.00 2.20%

NCDEX Guar Gum (Rs/Quintal) 6612.0 6020.0 -9.0% 9138.00 -34.12% 5941.00 1.33%

MCX Cotton (Rs/Bale) 19110.0 18160.0 -5.0% 22540.00 -19.43% 17680.00 2.71%

NCDEX Cocud (Rs/Quintal) 1655.0 1587.0 -4.1% 3698.00 -57.08% 1507.00 5.31%

MCX Mentha Oil (Rs/kg) 1165.0 1211.0 3.9% 1748.00 -30.72% 1130.00 7.17%

7KSTREET - 29TH FEBRUARY, 2020

COMMODITIES

MCX CRUDE - PRICE, VOLUME & OPEN INTEREST MCX NATURAL GAS – PRICE, VOLUME & OPEN INTEREST

CALENDAR SPREAD NYMEX - CRUDE OIL CALENDAR SPREAD NYMEX – NATURAL GAS

NEWS DIGEST

• Countries on three continents reported their first cases of the coronavirus on Friday as the world prepared for a pandemic and investors dumped equities in expectation of a global recession. Coronavirus panic sent world share markets crashing again, compounding their worst week since the 2008 global financial crisis and bringing the wipeout to $5 trillion. Hopes that the epidemic that started in China late last year would be over in months, and that economic activity would quickly return to normal, have been shattered as the number of international cases have spiralled. Mainland China reported 327 new cases, the lowest since Jan. 23, taking its tally to more than 78,800 cases with almost 2,800 deaths. But as the outbreak eases in China it is surging elsewhere. Four more countries reported their first cases, taking the number of countries and territories outside China with infections to 55, with more than 4,200 cases killing about 70 people. Countries other than China now account for about three-quarters of new infections.

• The Federal Reserve may need to move aggressively to cut borrowing costs to cushion the economy from the effects of the rapid spread of the new coronavirus, which sent global stocks tumbling this week. Traders of futures contracts tied to the U.S. central bank’s policy rate are already betting on it. On Thursday they were pricing in about a 76% chance of the Fed starting to cut rates as soon as next month and trimming an extraordinary three-fourths of a percentage point by September, according to CME Group’s FedWatch. That would bring the short-term target rate to below 1% for the first time since 2017. Traders saw just a 33% chance of a March rate cut on Wednesday. But that was before a report showing new cases in Iran, Italy and elsewhere were growing faster than in the outbreak’s epicenter of China, and leaders around the world began rallying their nations to prepare for a broader epidemic. In the face of a potential economic slowdown as governments shut schools, cancel sporting events and restrict travel, global central bankers have for the most part taken a wait-and-see approach.

• opper and zinc inventories in warehouses tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) jumped to their highest level in nearly three years on Friday as the coronavirus outbreak hurt demand. Copper stockpiles rose 4.1% to 310,760 tonnes this week, while zinc inventories were up 11.8% to 160,011 tonnes, each at their highest level since the week ended April 7, 2017, ShFE weekly data released on Friday showed. Aluminium inventories in warehouses tracked by ShFE advanced 7.2% to 439,087 tonnes, highest since June 14, 2019, the data showed.

• Malaysian palm oil futures ended 6% lower on Friday, marking the biggest weekly drop in over a decade, as coronavirus cases continued to spread globally and stoked worries about a slump in global edible oil demand. The benchmark palm oil contract for May delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed to trade down 137 ringgit, or 5.57% to 2,322 ringgit ($548.29), its lowest since Oct. 23, 2019. Palm oil prices declined 11.44% for the week, the sharpest weekly fall since October 2008. It has also fallen 10.8% for the month, the second straight monthly drop.

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14-Feb 17-Feb 18-Feb 19-Feb 20-Feb 21-Feb 24-Feb 25-Feb 26-Feb 27-Feb

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8KSTREET - 29TH FEBRUARY, 2020

COMMODITIES

LME WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)

Copper 161575 219875 58300 36.08%

Zinc 75375 75425 50 0.07%

Aluminium 1127400 1092275 -35125 -3.12%

Lead 66775 67550 775 1.16%

Nickel 228924 229860 936 0.41%

Nickel 215802 224700 8898 4.12%

SHANGHAI WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)*

Copper 262738 298619 35881 13.66%

Zinc 121804 143164 21360 17.54%

Aluminium 338848 409635 70787 20.89%

Aluminium 338848 409635 70787 20.89%

*Until Wednesday, (Chinese market was closed last week)

COMEX WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)

Commodity Previous week This week Change % Change

Copper 30204 30600 396 1.31%

PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (IN US $)

Commodity Exchange Contract 21-Feb 28-Feb % change

Aluminium LME 3M 1711.00 1690.50 -1.20%

Copper LME 3M 5765.00 5656.00 -1.89%

Lead LME 3M 1831.50 1816.00 -0.85%

Nickel LME 3M 12570.00 12380.00 -1.51%

Zinc LME 3M 2103.00 2025.50 -3.69%

Gold CME Aug 1538.10 1538.10 0.00%

Silver CME July 14.28 14.28 0.00%

WTI Crude oil CME June 53.46 46.34 -13.32%

Natural Gas CME June 1.91 1.74 -8.81%

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

Commodity Exchange Contract 21-Feb 28-Feb % change

Soybean CBOT July 907.50 905.00 -0.28%

Soy oil CBOT July 27.98 27.98 0.00%

CPO BMD Aug 2027.00 2027.00 0.00%

Cotton ICE July 66.23 66.23 0.00%

FUTURE PRICES (% CHANGE)

GLOBAL STOCK POSITION (IN TONS)

-15.31%

-11.57%

-8.95%

-7.44%

-6.53%

-6.51%

-6.27%

-5.95%

-5.07%

-4.97%

-4.81%

-4.38%

-4.36%

-4.11%

-3.82%

-2.94%

-2.85%

-2.62%

-2.08%

-1.52%

-1.07%

-0.46%

0.77%

1.99%

3.95%

-20.00% -15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00%

Crude Oil

Natural Gas

Guar Gum

Zinc

Soybean

Soy Oil

Cardamom

Silver

Nickel

Cotton

Wheat

Dhaniya

Castor Seed

Cotton Seed Oil Cake

Guar Seed

Aluminum

Copper

CPO

Turmeric

Jeera

Barley

Gold

Lead

RM Seed

Mentha Oil

9KSTREET - 29TH FEBRUARY, 2020

CURRENCY

USD/INR

USDINR traded strong during the week, it made a high of 72.26 and low of 71.55. The RSI is at 66.69. Moving average of 50 is at 71.34. The trend is looking positive for the week. Hence, recommend Buying at 71.80-71.70 TP 72.50 SL 71.50.

EUR/INR

EURINR traded positive during the week, it made a high of 79.78 and low of 77.62. The RSI is trading at 64.20. Moving average of 50 is at 78.75. The trend is looking positive for the week. Hence, recommend buying at 78.80 TP 80.30 SL 78.30.

GBP/INR

GBPINR traded mixed during the week, it made a low of 92.02 and high of 93.36. The RSI is trading at 48.89. Moving average of 50 is at 92.97. The trend is looking negative for the week. Hence, recommend selling at 93.00 TP 92.00 SL 93.50

JPY/INR

JPYINR traded positive during the week, it made a high of 66.53 and low of 64.29. The RSI is at 65.08. Moving average of 50 is at 65.14. The trend is looking positive for the week. Hence, recommend buying at 66.20 TP 67.50 SL 65.70

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONMARKET STANCE

Wall Street recorded biggest ever weekly loss since the global financial crisis.

Although it recovered lately amid the Federal Reserve’s pledge to support the

economy in wake of a growing coronavirus epidemic. Fed Chair Jerome Powell

said that the central bank would act to support the economy, while identifying

the coronavirus is a threat to the economy. The World Health Organization on

Friday raised its risk assessment of the Covid-19 to a “very high” global level

from “high” in late January but stopped short of declaring a coming pandemic.

With no major economic data from US the markets primarily focused on the

epidemic coronavirus and its impact on the global economy. Majority of

the central banks hinted that Virus could become a potential threat to the

economy and they also highlighted that they are ready with central bank tools

to support the slowing economy. Back home, India’s gross domestic product

(GDP) growth in the October-December quarter of 2019 stood at 4.7%. The

data also showed that projections for economic growth in full FY20 had been

retained at 5% in the second advance estimates. During the first nine months

of this financial year (April-December 2019), the Indian economy grew by

just 5.1%, against 6.3% in the same period of FY19. Although the Dollar index

got the shine of safe haven it remained extremely weak sliding from its two

year highs as the probability of Fed rate cut substantially increased during

the week. As anticipated USDINR moved higher post the breach of 71.50 last

week. Signs of Global economic weakness coupled with weak domestic data

USDINR moved higher despite low Crude oil prices and Dollar index. For the

current week USDINR is expected to move higher and a breach of 72.30 will

pave the way towards 72.80 with more probability of it achieving during mid

of March.

NEWS FLOWS OF LAST WEEK

• India’s fiscal deficit touched 128.5 per cent of the whole year budget target

at January-end, said the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) on Friday.

• The fiscal deficit stood at Rs 9,85,472 crore. The government had targeted

to restrict the fiscal deficit at Rs 7,66,846 crore during the year ending

March 31, 2020.

• India’s Banking Credit grew by 6.3% to ₹99.68 lakh crore in the fortnight

ended 14 February, according to Reserve bank of India’s statement of

position.

• Bank deposits in the fortnight ended 31 January, 2020 increased by 9.9%

year on year to ₹133.24 lakh crore from ₹121.22 lakh crore a year ago, RBI

data showed.

• Euro zone economic sentiment improved more than expected in February

on more confidence among consumers and in industry despite the global

outbreak of the coronavirus. The Commission said economic sentiment

in the 19 countries sharing the euro rose to 103.5 points this month from

102.6 in January, continuing a steady upward trend since October.

CURRENCY TABLE

Currency Pair Open High Low Close

USDINR 71.92 72.27 71.54 72.19

EURINR 77.96 80.12 77.63 79.46

GBPINR 93.18 93.47 92.05 92.96

JPYINR 64.97 65.10 64.73 64.98

10KSTREET - 29TH FEBRUARY, 2020

ECONOMIC GAUGE FOR THE NEXT WEEK

Date Time Country Indicator Name Period Poll Prefix Unit Prior

2 Mar 07:15 China (Mainland) Caixin Mfg PMI Final Feb 2020 45.7 Diff.Idx 51.1

2 Mar 10:30 India IHS Markit Mfg PMI Feb 2020 52.8 Diff.Idx 55.3

2 Mar 14:30 Euro Zone Markit Mfg Final PMI Feb 2020 49.1 Diff.Idx 49.1

2 Mar 19:30 United States All Car Sales Feb 2020 4.21

2 Mar 19:30 United States All Truck Sales Feb 2020 12.63

2 Mar 20:30 United States ISM Manufacturing PMI Feb 2020 50.5 Index 50.9

2 Mar 20:15 United States Markit Mfg PMI Final Feb 2020 Diff.Idx 50.8

2 Mar 20:30 United States Construction Spending MM Jan 2020 0.4 Percent -0.2

2 Mar 20:30 United States ISM Mfg Prices Paid Feb 2020 Index 53.3

2 Mar 20:30 United States ISM Manuf Employment Idx Feb 2020 Index 46.6

2 Mar 20:30 United States ISM Manuf New Orders Idx Feb 2020 Index 52

3 Mar 15:30 Euro Zone HICP Flash YY Feb 2020 1.2 Percent 1.4

3 Mar 15:30 Euro Zone HICP-X F&E Flash YY Feb 2020 Percent 1.3

3 Mar 15:30 Euro Zone HICP-X F,E,A&T Flash YY Feb 2020 1.2 Percent 1.1

3 Mar 15:30 Euro Zone HICP-X F, E, A, T Flash MM Feb 2020 Percent -1.7

3 Mar 15:30 Euro Zone CPI NSA Feb 2020 Index 104.38

3 Mar 15:30 Euro Zone Producer Prices MM Jan 2020 Percent 0

3 Mar 15:30 Euro Zone Producer Prices YY Jan 2020 -0.5 Percent -0.7

3 Mar 15:30 Euro Zone Unemployment Rate Jan 2020 7.4 Percent 7.4

3 Mar 19:25 United States Redbook MM W 29 Feb Percent -0.2

3 Mar 19:25 United States Redbook YY W 29 Feb Percent 5.4

3 Mar 20:15 United States ISM-New York Index Feb 2020 Index 866.9

3 Mar 20:15 United States ISM NY Biz Conditions Feb 2020 Index 45.8

4 Mar 07:15 China (Mainland) Caixin Services PMI Feb 2020 Diff.Idx 51.8

4 Mar 10:30 India IHS Markit Svcs PMI Feb 2020 52.8 Diff.Idx 55.5

4 Mar 14:30 Euro Zone Markit Serv Final PMI Feb 2020 52.8 Diff.Idx 52.8

4 Mar 14:30 Euro Zone Markit Comp Final PMI Feb 2020 51.6 Diff.Idx 51.6

4 Mar 15:30 Euro Zone Retail Sales MM Jan 2020 0.6 Percent -1.6

4 Mar 15:30 Euro Zone Retail Sales YY Jan 2020 0.9 Percent 1.3

4 Mar 17:30 United States MBA Mortgage Applications W 28 Feb Percent 1.5

4 Mar 17:30 United States Mortgage Market Index W 28 Feb Index 655

4 Mar 17:30 United States MBA Purchase Index W 28 Feb Index 273.1

4 Mar 17:30 United States Mortgage Refinance Index W 28 Feb Index 2852.9

4 Mar 17:30 United States MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate W 28 Feb Percent 3.73

4 Mar 18:45 United States ADP National Employment Feb 2020 191 Thou Person 291

4 Mar 20:15 United States Markit Comp Final PMI Feb 2020 Diff.Idx 49.6

4 Mar 20:15 United States Markit Svcs PMI Final Feb 2020 Diff.Idx 49.4

4 Mar 20:30 United States ISM N-Mfg PMI Feb 2020 55.5 Index 55.5

4 Mar 20:30 United States ISM N-Mfg Bus Act Feb 2020 Index 60.9

4 Mar 20:30 United States ISM N-Mfg Employment Idx Feb 2020 Index 53.1

4 Mar 20:30 United States ISM N-Mfg New Orders Idx Feb 2020 Index 56.2

4 Mar 20:30 United States ISM N-Mfg Price Paid Idx Feb 2020 Index 55.5

4 Mar 21:00 United States EIA Weekly Crude Stocks W 28 Feb Mln Barrel 0.452

4 Mar 21:00 United States EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks W 28 Feb Mln Barrel -2.114

4 Mar 21:00 United States EIA Weekly Gasoline Stk W 28 Feb Mln Barrel -2.691

4 Mar 21:00 United States EIA Weekly Crude Imports W 28 Feb Mln Barrel -0.423

CURRENCY

11KSTREET - 29TH FEBRUARY, 2020

CURRENCY

4 Mar 21:00 United States EIA Weekly Rfg Stocks W 28 Feb Mln Barrel -0.003

4 Mar 21:00 United States EIA Weekly Heatoil Stock W 28 Feb Mln Barrel -0.149

4 Mar 21:00 United States EIA Weekly Prods Imports W 28 Feb Mln Brl/Day 0.152

4 Mar 21:00 United States EIA Weekly Dist Output W 28 Feb Mln Brl/Day -0.006

4 Mar 21:00 United States EIA Weekly Crude Runs W 28 Feb Mln Brl/Day -0.202

4 Mar 21:00 United States EIA Weekly Refining Util W 28 Feb Percent -1.5

4 Mar 21:00 United States EIA Wkly Crude Cushing W 28 Feb Mln Barrel 0.906

4 Mar 21:00 United States EIA Weekly Gasoline O/P W 28 Feb Mln Brl/Day 0.272

4 Mar 00:00 United States EIA Ethanol Ref Stk W 28 Feb Thou Barrel 24718

4 Mar 00:00 United States EIA Ethanol Fuel Total W 28 Feb Thou Brl/Day 1054

5 Mar 18:00 United States Challenger Layoffs Feb 2020 Thou Person 67.735

5 Mar 19:00 United States Labor Costs Revised Q4 2019 1.4 Percent 1.4

5 Mar 19:00 United States Productivity Revised Q4 2019 1.4 Percent 1.4

5 Mar 20:30 United States Durables Ex-Def, R MM Jan 2020 Percent 3.6

5 Mar 20:30 United States Durable Goods, R MM Jan 2020 Percent -0.2

5 Mar 20:30 United States Factory Orders MM Jan 2020 -0.3 Percent 1.8

5 Mar 20:30 United States Durables Ex-Transpt R MM Jan 2020 Percent 0.9

5 Mar 20:30 United States Nondef Cap Ex-Air R MM Jan 2020 Percent 1.1

5 Mar 20:30 United States Factory Ex-Transp MM Jan 2020 Percent 0.6

6 Mar 19:00 United States Non-Farm Payrolls Feb 2020 178 Thou Person 225

6 Mar 19:00 United States Private Payrolls Feb 2020 160 Thou Person 206

6 Mar 19:00 United States Manufacturing Payrolls Feb 2020 -2 Thou Person -12

6 Mar 19:00 United States Government Payrolls Feb 2020 Thou Person 19

6 Mar 19:00 United States Unemployment Rate Feb 2020 3.6 Percent 3.6

6 Mar 19:00 United States Average Earnings MM Feb 2020 0.3 Percent 0.2

6 Mar 19:00 United States Average Earnings YY Feb 2020 3.2 Percent 3.1

6 Mar 19:00 United States Average Workweek Hrs Feb 2020 34.3 Hour 34.3

6 Mar 19:00 United States Labor Force Partic Feb 2020 Percent 63.4

6 Mar 19:00 United States U6 Underemployment Feb 2020 Percent 6.9

6 Mar 19:00 United States International Trade $ Jan 2020 -47.2 Bln USD -48.9

6 Mar 19:00 United States Goods Trade Balance (R) Jan 2020 Bln USD

6 Mar 20:30 United States Wholesale Invt(y), R MM Jan 2020 0 Percent

6 Mar 20:30 United States Wholesale Sales MM Jan 2020 Percent -0.7

6 Mar 01:30 United States Consumer Credit Jan 2020 17.5 Bln USD 22.06

12KSTREET - 29TH FEBRUARY, 2020