Samuel Sayer

Identify the barriers to Climate adaptation at the local-level within the UK. Using the city of Leeds as a case for study.

Samuel Sayer

Peter Taylor

School of Earth & Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, W. Yorkshire LS2 9JT; Tel: 0113 3436461

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Acronyms

IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

LA: Local Authority

EA: Environmental Agency

UK: United Kingdom

GVA: Gross Value Added

ONS: Office for National Statistics

UKCP09: United Kingdom Climate Projections 2009

UKCP02: United Kingdom Climate Projections 2002

UKCIP: United Kingdom Climate Impacts Program

UKCIP02: United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme 2002

UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

MET: Meteorological Office CET: Central England Time

AR: Assessment Report

DEFRA: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

USA: United States of America

GTC/year: Giga Tonnes of Carbon per year

NI: National Indicator

LRAP: Local and Regional Adaptation Partnership Board

LCLIP: Local Climate Impact Profile

LSP: Local Strategic Partnership

NHS: National Health Service

SFRA: Strategic Flood Risk Assessment

SEQ: South East Queensland

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Contents

Title Page ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 1

Cover Sheet…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 2

Acronyms………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 3

Contents………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 4

Abstract…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 5

Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 6-8

Literature Review………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 8-16

Methodology……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 16-23

Results and Discussion………………………………………………………………………………………………… 23- 30

Limitations…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 30-31

Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 31-33

References…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 33-37

Transcript…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 37-40

Risk Assessment Form…………………………………………………………………………………………………. 40-45

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Abstract

Global climate change is now being widely accepted by the scientific community to be a phenomenon that is affecting human activity and in particular the urban areas we live and work in. With scientific evidence proving that these climatic impacts are becoming ever more severe and frequent, it is fundamental that governments such as the United Kingdom’s have a framework that outlines the successful implementation of climate adaptation. My research piece looks at the barriers local government face when developing and implementing climate adaptation methods. My research piece will focus on the city of Leeds by investigating what the main constraints the local authority face when applying adaptation methods. As well as focusing on the city of Leeds I will be researching other cases throughout the world that look at barriers/constraints to climate adaptation at the local-level. Within my research I hope to find out what the greatest barrier are to successfully applying climate adaptation methods at the local-level. To which this will provide a basis for further research on how we can eradicate or reduce these constraints, in order to apply successful climate adaptation and reduce our vulnerability from climate change. The main findings within my research have been based on their being three simplistic constraints within climate adaptation at the local-level; these being: lack of information, institutional restraints and financial limitations. My research also shows that within the past barriers such as lack of information and the ability to access this information at the local level where the main constraint to the development and implementation of climate adaptation, however now my results show that political support from the national and financial constraints are the main barrier to climate adaptation at the local level.

Keywords: Climate adaptation, Local-level, barriers/constraints, Financial, institutional, information, Leeds.

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1. Introduction

It is generally accepted within the scientific community that global climate change is occurring as a result of anthropogenic human action and this is having an effect on human activities and the urban areas we live in. The Fourth Assessment report of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that the warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures (IPCC, 2014). With climate change inevitable it is necessary that policy not only focusses on mitigation which it has done within the past, but now more on the process of adaptation to reduce the vulnerability of future climate change impacts. Indeed, the concern about climate change is pervasive because of the all-encompassing and multi-dimensional nature of climate impacts. Droughts, higher temperatures, flooding, sea-level rise, heat waves, more intense storms, and greater uncertainty in weather patterns translate into more widespread diseases, greater biodiversity loss, crop losses, and system transformations which in turn imply major social and economic dislocations and threats to livelihoods of the poor (Agrawal, 2008). Not only is climate change considered to affect the poor the most, although research does identify the poor as being the most vulnerable, previous research within climate adaptation does indicate that more developed nations are just as susceptible to the impacts of climate change. For instance, Moser and Luers, (2008) state that local governments internationally are ill prepared for the complex challenges (of climate change).

Within the United Kingdom (UK) it is the Meteorological Office (MET) job to provide the latest climate projections (UKCP09), for example, climate model scenarios predict increases in average temperatures, drier summers, greater winter precipitation and an increase in the number of heavy rainfall days (UKCIP, 2009). With these climate projections detailed in the report, the UK government can determine what the likely impacts the UK face from climate change, to which national and local government can implement adaptation plans to reduce vulnerability faced from these climatic changes, National Adaptation Programme (NAP).

With 82% of the UK population living within urban areas as of 2012 (WorldBank, 2014) and an expected increase of 9.6m to 2037 (increase of 15% from 2012) and of 16.2m to 2062 (increase of 25% from 2012) based on national population (GOV.UK, 2014). There is a need to look at adaptation methods that look to reduce future climate impacts upon urban areas within the UK. Not only is population rising within our urban areas but these areas are central to economic output, thus there is a need to reduce the vulnerability urban areas face from climate change.

As certain climatic impacts are inevitable mitigation alone will not reduce the exposure we face from climate change therefore adaptation has to address pre-disaster and post-disaster vulnerabilities. For instance, it should focus on reducing the hazard where this is possible or reducing people’s exposure to it. It should also focus on reducing the impact of the hazard – for instance in responding rapidly to flooding, both to get the flood waters away from the settlements flooded and to respond to the flood’s impacts on people’s health, living conditions, assets and livelihoods. And finally, in the post-disaster response, to encourage and support measures that reduce risks to likely future hazards. (Satterthwaite et al, 2008)

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Currently within climate policy we are beginning to see a shift from national and international policy to a more local policy level, Urwin and Jordan (2008) argue that policies at the national scale could constrain adaptation at the local level by limiting the ability of local governments to respond to the challenges. Therefore my report aims to look at the ways in which local authorities try to overcome the barriers they face when implementing climate adaptation methods. Being able to understand what these barriers are and how they occur will allow me and other research into how these barriers can be overcome and therefore provide a framework for successful climate adaptation.

1.1. Aims/Objectives

The overall aim of this report is to assess the barriers local authorities face when developing and implementing climate adaptation methods, using the city of Leeds as a case for study. The study aims to provide a brief background of the impacts the city of Leeds faces from climate change now and within the future, in order to provide a general understanding of the impacts we are likely to face within the United Kingdom (UK) and Leeds (West Yorkshire, Yorkshire and Humber area).

Previous research suggest that financial restraints, institutional limitations and lack of information (Porter et al, 2014) are the biggest constraints to successfully developing and implementing climate adaptation at the local level. My research will therefore aim to identify these barriers and understand the processes and structures that give rise to these constraints, as well as focussing on other affecting constraint at the local-level.

As well as complimenting existing research, in local-level climate adaptation, my report will gather information from local authority and other governmental agency members within Leeds, via a questionnaire and interview. To which this data will provide me with a greater understanding of the constraints, local level policy makers and developers etc. feel the need to be addressed, in order to overcome the barriers they face when developing and implementing these adaptation methods, in their aim to achieve successful climate adaptation and reduce our vulnerability to future impacts of climate change.

The report also aims to provide as a basis for further research into these constraints and how they can be overcome. As well as a foundation for research looking at other municipalities within the United Kingdom or simply at local-level climate adaptation. In order to achieve these aims, there are a number of objectives to consider:

Investigate the impacts of climate change within the UK, within the next 20-50 years. Identify the main Impacts the city of Leeds faces from future climate change within

the next 20-50 years, based on a business as usual (High emission) climate scenario model.

Investigate the barriers of implementing climate adaptation methods within local governance and other non-governmental agencies, using the city of Leeds as a case for study.

With these constraints in mind identify how successful climate adaptation can be achieved.

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Identify how these theoretical and empirical insights can be used to develop a conceptual framework, in reducing the impact of climate change within Leeds via successful climate adaptation.

2. Literature review

2.1. Area of study

The city of Leeds is located in West Yorkshire, it is considered as West Yorkshires commercial and financial centre (PlanetWare, 2009). The last Office for National Statistics (ONS) census shows that in 2011 the city if Leeds had a population of 757, 000 (ONS, 2011) making it the third largest city within the UK. In 2012 Gross Value Added (GVA) was totalled to £18.8bn growing by 39% within the last decade (Leeds GOV, 2014). Leeds has a diverse economy with the majority of it being service based, over 87% of total employees are employed within the sector (Leeds GOV, 2014). The West Yorkshire Resilience forum identifies six key climate risks (major river flooding, urban flash flooding, drought, heat waves, storms and gales, and low temperatures and heavy snow) all of which, except drought, are rated as high risk. Flooding (from rivers and flash flooding) is the most important current climate risk. (Leeds Initiative, 2012)

2.2. UK Climate and Future Climate Scenario’s

The United Kingdom is considered to have a temperate maritime climate as the Gulf Stream ensures a mild, maritime weather system. Average temperatures within the UK measured by the Meteorological Office are presented in the UKCP09 report, it shows that since temperature records began in the 1800 temperature as increased within the UK (UKCIP, 2009). Figure 2.2.1. Changes in Central England Temperature (CET) annual values (blue bars) from 1877 to 2006 relative to the average over the 1961-90 baseline period of (about 9.5 ºC).

Annual mean precipitation over England and Wales has not changed significantly since records began in 1766. Seasonal rainfall is highly variable, but appears to have decreased in summer and increased in winter (UKCIP, 2009). The graphs below Figure 2.2.2 and 2.2.3 show annual precipitation rates since records began in 1766.

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Figure 2.2.2 Precipitation 1766-2006 averaged over the three winter months (Dec-Feb). The green dotted line shows the 1961-90 average seasonal precipitation rate. Figure 2.2.3 Precipitation 1766-2006 averaged over the three summer months (Jun-Aug) (UKCIP 2009).

Climate modelling is extremely important when it comes to looking at the likely impacts of climate change, particularly when it comes to developing and implementing adaptation and mitigation methods to cope with future impacts we may face from climate change. To get an idea of what the future climate is likely to be; climate researchers calculate emission scenarios based on the likelihood of future greenhouse gas emissions, as well as collaborating with economists and social scientist to construct possible scenarios of future emissions and the resulting concentrations (J. Neelin, 2011). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) developed long-term emissions scenarios in 1990 and 1992. These scenarios have been widely used in the analysis of possible climate change, its impacts, and options to mitigate climate change. (IPCC, 2000).

The latest climate scenarios are found in the Working Group II, IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) published in 2013-14. The projected CO2 emissions for a High scenario and low emission scenario are shown. Figure 2.2.4. (IPCC, 2014)

There are six scenario groups, four of these combinations are based on demographic change, social and economic development, and broad technological developments, corresponding to the four families (A1, A2, B1, and B2);

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A1: Future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and decline thereafter and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. A2: Business as usual scenario. B1: convergent world with a similar population as in A1, but with rapid changes in economic structures towards a more service and information economy, introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies. B2 local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability with continuously increasing population (lower than A2). Two of the scenario groups of the A1 family (A1FI, A1T) explicitly explore alternative energy technology developments, A1FI is fossil fuel intensive, whereas A1T uses green technology (J. Neelin, 2011).

Figure 2.2.5. Total global annual CO2 emissions from all sources, from 1990 to 2100 (in gigatonnes of carbon (GtC/yr)) for the families and six scenario groups. The four families (A1, A2, B1, and B2) and six scenario groups: the fossil-intensive A1FI (comprising the high-coal and high-oil-and gas scenarios), the predominantly non-fossil fuel A1T, the balanced A1B in Figure 1.3a; A2 in Figure 1.3b; B1 in Figure 1.3c, and B2 in Figure 1.3d. Each coloured emission band shows the range of harmonized and non-harmonized scenarios within each group. (IPCC, 2009)

Predicting what the likely output of CO2 is going to be like using these future scenarios (as well as using other greenhouse gas climate scenarios). Climate analysts can assess the likely impacts we may face in the future from anthropogenic climate change. To which policies and other adaptation/mitigation methods can be implemented to reduce our vulnerability to climate change. In the United Kingdom the UKCP09 (United Kingdom Climate Projections, 2009) provides future climate projections for the UK. UKCP09 gives projections for each of three of the IPCC’s Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) scenarios (A1FI (called High in UKCP09), A1B (Medium) and B1 (Low)) to show how different emissions pathways affect future climate. (UKCP09, 2010). The UKCP09 can therefore be used to assess the potential impacts of the projected future climate. To which it provides a case to explore adaptation methods when addressing future climatic impacts within the UK. However when looking at future climate projections we must take into account the uncertainties, uncertainty can be classified by three classes: Statistical uncertainty, Scenario uncertainty and recognized ignorance (Suraje Dessai et al, 2007). Uncertainty within climate projections arises from three principal causes; natural climate variability, both internal and external; incomplete understanding of Earth System processes and their imperfect representation in climate

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models (which we term modelling uncertainty); and uncertainty in future emissions (UKCP09, 2010). These uncertainties pose major challenges for planners taking decisions on adaptation measures. Gagnon-Lebrun and Agrawala (2006) note that the level of certainty associated with climate change and impact projections is often key to determining the extent to which such information can be used to formulate appropriate adaptation responses. (S.Dessai and Jeroen van der Sluijs, 2007).

2.3. Scientific Risk and Uncertainty

Climate change is a challenge for managing risks, risks for people, infrastructure and resources. Steps to build resilient societies can reduce our exposure to these risks. (Climate change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, 2014). When calculating climate risk we must look at three key things: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. However when calculating our climate risk like in any scientific piece of evidence we must take into count the uncertainties. When looking at uncertainty it is important to assess what is known and unknown in the scientific body of literature of the impacts, what is the vulnerability we face and what can be done to cope with the effects we face from climate change. (Sense about Science, 2012). For example within the UK, despite enormous improvements in our understanding of the Earth’s climate, and a long history of climate monitoring and weather forecasting in the UK, the exact extent and nature of changes in our climate remains uncertain (DEFRA, 2003). When considering climate risk management i.e. processes of adaptation, it is important to consider that we are making choices under conditions of uncertainty. (Climate change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, 2014). Therefore it is key that we implement adaptation or mitigation methods that take into account the worst effects climate change is likely to have upon us.

2.4. Climate Adaptation and Adaptive capacity

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines adaptation as; adjustments in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities (IPCC, 2007). Adaptation is therefore made up of actions throughout society, by individuals, groups and government (Adger et al. 2005). Adaptation to environmental change is not a new phenomenon. Both traditional and industrial societies have adapted their environments to smooth risks associated with climate variability throughout human history (Adger et al, 2003; Brooks, 2006). However even in developed nations, extreme events have highlighted significant deficiencies in prevention and preparedness (Ebi and Semenza, 2008; Hulme, 2003; Ford et al, 2010) to climate adaptation. Lea Berrang-Ford et al, 2010; argues that not enough adaptation is taking place. With evidence suggesting that the climate is changing overwhelmingly (Smith et al, 2009; Fussel, 2009) adaptation is likely to become more problematic (Smith et al, 2009; Stern, 2006; IPCC, 2007; World Bank, 2010). The 2007 IPCC report, states that Climate change adaptation is recognised as unavoidable because of the possible consequences of climate change that are being observed in many parts of the world. Despite the need for Climate change adaptation, adaptation processes

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are not easily initiated and implemented, and various factors limit or facilitate adaptation. (Amundsen et al, 2009). There have been various attempts to theorise how individuals, societies and governments will adapt to climate change (Tomkins et al, 2010). In order to adapt to climate change we must understand what adaptation is, in particularly our adaptive capacity to a certain event. For example Capacity is a society’s ability to adapt to changing climatic conditions, whether by reducing harm, exploiting beneficial new opportunities, or both. This ability to adapt, whether to a changing climate or other new circumstances, is in part a function of a society’s level of wealth, education, institutional strength, and access to technology. The nature and the extent of a society’s development, therefore, heavily influence both its degree of exposure to climate risks and its capacity to adapt. With population increases and greater urbanisation within the UK and throughout the world our exposure to climate related risks have increased particularly within urban areas. When considering climate adaptation we must focus response methods at the local level as; the direct impacts of climate change are felt locally, and response measures must be tailored to local circumstances. However, for these efforts to be robust—or, in many cases, even possible—they must be guided and supported by national policies and strategies. For some countries, these, in turn, need to be facilitated through international measures (Burton et al, 2006). As we see here previous research shows that to successfully adapt to climate change, we must develop and implement methods that look to cover all levels of cross-scale barriers and sectors. When looking to reduce our exposure to the impacts of climate change via adaptation; there are two main types of adaptation to climate change these are: Reactive and Proactive adaptation. A proactive approach aims to reduce exposure to future risks, for instance by avoiding development on flood-prone lands; a purely reactive approach aims only to alleviate impacts once they have occurred, for instance by providing emergency assistance to flood victims (Burton et al, 2006). Penning-Roswell et al, (2006) argue that extreme events are a trigger that represent a window of opportunity to implement adaptation. However, while some economists suggest that much adaptation will occur spontaneously through marginal adjustments in markets and individual behaviour, there are good reasons for public policy intervention. The Stern review (2008) suggests that market forces are unlikely to lead to efficient adaptation. (Tompkins et al, 2010). Therefore it is essential that policy and other methods of adaptation take into account; all levels, time-scales, sectors and impacts when developing and implementing such methods. However when determining whether adaptation is successful we must take into account the differing views of stakeholders and their understandings of what successful adaptation to climate change is. Adger et al. (2005) argue, given the spatial and temporal complexity of climate change problems and responses, it is likely that actions that are judged by one group to be successful adaptations will be judged by groups in other places and times as being unsuccessful. Therefore adaptation actions can positively increase the vulnerability of other groups and sectors in the future, this leading to maladaptation.

The majority of research on adaptation in the climate change field has focused on theorizing how human systems might or can adapt to climate change, examined the possibility for adaptation or created inventories or wish lists of policy entry point (Barnett, 2010). Lea Berrng et al, (2010) states that fewer studies have systematically examined if and

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how adaptation is taking place. Hence I believe that there is a need to understand what adaptation is and in particular, the barriers that restrict the development and implementation of successful climate adaptation at the local level.

Traditionally, reducing the exposure and vulnerability we face from climate change international and national policies implemented by the UNFCCC and IPCC were aimed at mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, little response on tackling the impacts of climate change was through methods of adaptation. However, the need to reframe this debate and direct attention towards the local causes and impacts of climate change have gained significant traction since the mid to late 1990s (O‘Riordan & Jager, 1996).

With some degree of climate change now inevitable, climate policy is shifting away from its once exclusive focus on mitigating climate change to preparing for and adapting to the impacts to come (Porter et al, 2014). Climate change adaptation appears to be evoking quickly (Tompkins et al, 2010). And as a result research from Preston et al, (2009) document exponential growth in the number of adaptation plans in the USA, Canada, UK and Australia, from two in 2000 to 62 in 2008. Therefore, as we are beginning to see this shift from mitigation to adaptation and the need for local level adaptation, I believe it is important to look at the barriers faced when implementing and developing adaptation methods at the local level.

2.5. Barriers to Adaptation at the Local level

Implementation of adaptation is not keeping pace with the ever increasing need: the adaptation deficit is getting wider (Burton, 2009). It is therefore critically important to identify and analyse barriers to adaptation to identify possible opportunities to overcome them. (Eisenach et al, 2014) Generally defined, barriers to adaptation are challenges, obstacles, constraints or hurdles that impede adaptation (Klein et al, 2014). The IPCC‘s fifth assessment report characterises adaptation barriers (synonymous with adaptation constraints) as ‘factors that make it harder to plan and implement adaptation actions or that restrict options. (Klein et al, 2014). Moser and Ekstrom (2010) define barriers as obstacles that make adaptation less efficient, less effective or may require changes that lead to missed opportunities or higher costs. To which, barriers can arise from three sources: the actor(s) making adaptation- related decisions, the context in which the adaptation takes place or the system that is at risk of being affected by climate change (Eisenack et al, 2014). When considering barriers to adaptation it is important not to conceptualise barriers as a problematic type, for example, there might be barriers that are judged as being problematic by one actor and viewed as beneficial by others. Taking account of these considerations, Eisnack et al, (2014) proposes the following definitions of a barrier to climate adaptation as; (1) an impediment (2) to specified adaptations (3) for specified actors in their given context that (4) arises from a condition or set of conditions. A barrier can be (5) valued differently by different actors and (6) can, in principle, be reduced or overcome. In this definition, conditions are the attributes of adaptations, actors, and their context. These general and descriptive barrier categories subsume a wide variety of specific barriers that are highly context and actor specific. (Eisenack et al, 2014)

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At the international level, a variety of adaptation finance mechanisms have been established through the UNFCCC and/or the Koto protocol etc. (Measham et al, 2011). However recent research into the impacts of climate change and who they effect emphasise that adaptation is local. The impacts of climate change are experienced locally, and, therefore geographic vulnerability in climate impacts emphasises the need for ‘place based’ approaches to climate vulnerability analysis and adaptation (Adger and Kelly 1999; Cutter et al. 2000; Turner et al. 2003). Agrawal (2008) argues that local institutions have three critical roles in climate adaptation, namely 1) structuring responses to local impacts; 2) mediating between individual and collective responses to vulnerability; and 3) governing the delivery of resources to facilitate adaptation. Adger et al, (2005) states that; Local government has a crucial role to play in climate change adaptation, both delivering adaptation strategies devised from above and coordinating bottom-up action. However it is important to for a combination of local and national level of activity in which, local levels organise their own planning which is their area of expertise, while the national government prioritise the policy foci (Urwin and Jordan, 2008). Amundense et al, (2010) argues that adaptation to climate change requires responses at all levels of government, and without national authorities giving clear political signals through designing and facilitating adaptation policies, local governments will find it more difficult to develop effective adaptation policies and implement them. In this paper we aim to gain an overview of which adaptation measures local authorities have implemented and the barriers they perceive in their attempts to adapt to climate change.

2.6. The Policy context within the United Kingdom

It is important to have a framework that protects the vulnerable, provides information on risks, and protects public goods. The UK Government approach has focussed on providing information, and working with interested parties to build adaptive capacity (Tomkins et al, 2010). Within the UK the 2008 climate change act requires government to assess the risk of climate change and to formulate adaptation plans every five years (Porter et al, 2014). To underpin its national adaptation programme (NAP), the UK government commissioned a climate change risk assessment (CCRA), building o the latest UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) and parallel work done by a national network of regional climate change for different sectors locally (Defra; Porter et al, 2014). The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) aims “to provide information to help decision-makers plan their response to the impacts of climate change” (West and Gawith, 2005: 6). Decision makers included not just those in government but also the private sector, trade groups and other interested groups. Since the early 2000s the focus of the UKCIP has shifted away from impacts assessments towards risk management and reducing vulnerability (Tomkins et al, 2010). Arguably the most influential role of the UKCIP has been to support the production of a succession of climate change scenarios, i.e. UKCIP98 (Hulme and Jenkins, 1998), UKCIP02 (Hulme et al., 2002) and, most recently, UKCP09 (Murphy et al., 2009). The aim of these scenarios (see Hulme and Dessai, 2008 for a critique) has been to encourage organisations to undertake climate change impact assessments, and to provide a common resource to facilitate such assessments and allow comparisons between sectors and places (Tomkins et al, 2010). However the

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drawbacks to the UKCIP is that it is stakeholder led. To which it has its limits, for example, powerful stakeholders with a vested interest in maintaining the status quo may actively prevent discussion about adaptation or risk management (Scheffer et al, 2003). So consequently, planned adaptation will not necessarily occur unless mandates, accompanied by various accountability mechanisms and positive incentives, require it (Tomkins et al, 2010). Within the UK, Local Authorities (LA’s) have statuary responsibilities for climate sensitive functions ranging from local transport, spatial planning and flood risk management to public housing and social care (Porter et al, 2014). However in a review of local policies in the UK, Wilson (2006) found that although climate change was recognised with respect to flood risk, its implications for other issues such as biodiversity and water resources were not integrated into local plans. This shows that climate adaptation policy within the UK focusses mainly on flood risk. For example, when considering policy implementation, planners and designers etc. have to consider who is likely to be affected the most; and the impacts we are most vulnerable too. Consequently as the UK is most vulnerable to the risk of flooding, adaptation plans are likely to focus on reducing the exposure we face from flooding.

As well as providing information for adaptation planning and decision making, the UK government in 2008 introduced an adapting to climate change indicator (NI 188) in the new

Local Government Performance Framework. (DEFRA, 2008) The indicator allows authorities

and partners to measure progress in adapting to climate change over five levels.

Level 0 Getting started Level 1 Public commitment and impacts assessment Level 2 Comprehensive risk assessment Level 3 Comprehensive action plan Level 4 Implementation, monitoring and continuous review

The overall aim of NI 188 is to embed the management of climate risks and opportunities across the local authority and partners services, plans and estates and to take appropriate adaptive actions where required (DEFRA, 2008).

Figure 2.6.1. Shows the number of English Local Authorities achieving each National Indicator 188 Level of Adaptation in 2009/10 by their reported level of adaptation in 2008/09 (DCLG 2010; Porter et al, 2014).

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However with the abolition of NI188, it is more difficult to assess progress since 2010, but several studies have found that Local Authorities in England are still struggling to develop and implement adaptation plans (Brisley et al, 2012; Green Alliance, 2011; Porter et al, 2014; UKCIP, 2011).

Research from Porter et al, (2014) confirm that some 90% (18 of 20) of Local Authorities staff interviewed told us that adaptation was being deprioritised in their Local Authority. Porter (2014) also states; where adaptation activities have survived, they were tied to statutory duties, such as the formulation of strategic policies on flood risk management or spatial planning. Again this goes back to UK policy being focussed on flood risk management, which maybe because of the cut backs made during devolution under the current coalition government.

The Local and Regional Adaptation Partnership Board (LRAP) which aims to facilitate action on climate change adaptation at a local and regional level, by highlighting best practice, enhancing skills, providing toolkits and encouraging joint working between local and regional agencies (Defra, 2008). The report is not intended as a perspective approach to climate change adaptation (CAG, 2010) but offers the lessons in seeking to enhance their own community’s capacities to adapt to the impacts of climate change.

Within Leeds, the city council has prepared a local climate impact profile (LCLIP). A LCLIP is designed to support organisations such as local authorities in understanding the impacts of a changing climate on its citizens, businesses and partner organisations by identifying existing climate risk vulnerabilities. (West Yorkshire Adaptation Plan, 2010). The purpose of producing an LCLIP is to highlight opportunities to: Understand, prepare and plan for local climate impacts and work both individually and in partnership to:

Identify local climate change adaptation measures, and Allocate resources - both time and money - to support such adaptation measures.

(West Yorkshire Adaptation Plan, 2010)

Adaptation has now been incorporated into the Leeds Strategic Plan, the highest level plan for Leeds, as well as the Leeds Local Development Framework, the Sustainable Communities strategy and the Councils Environmental Policy (CAG, 2011). In parallel with the LCLIP work, the council is progressing on a number of adaptation actions related to infrastructure and highways, these include: Measures to reducing flood risks, measures to reduce heatwave damage, measures to reduce risks from high winds. (CAG, 2011). These will be discussed further within my report.

3. Methodology

3.1. Overview

Leeds was chosen as the case for study due to its accessibility, being a university of Leeds student I believed it was the best option and easiest to collect my data here from the local council and Environmental Agency. Connections at the University had provided me with a gateway of access to local authority planners and councillors etc. that would be of help

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when it came to collecting data on climate adaptation. Furthermore, secondary data had formed the basis of my research, to which reports such as, ‘The Right stuff? Informing Adaptation to Climate Change in British Local Government’ and other articles had been wrote or influenced by the data collected by researchers here at the University of Leeds, therefore being able to communicate with them made it easier for me when collecting data, particularly when it came to collecting data for Leeds. When searching for climate framework methods in Leeds, much of the reports documented were based on mitigation methods, however there were various reports on climate adaptation that looked at the unequivocal impacts Leeds was likely to face within the future, and how to adapt to these effects for example; The West Yorkshire Adaptation Plan, The Leeds City Council A Local Climate Impacts Profile for Leeds 2002 – 2008. The West Yorkshire Adaptation Plan aims to:

Combine the risk assessments from Leeds and Kirklees in order to identify shared priority risks;

Create a comprehensive Adaptation Action Plan for the five West Yorkshire Local Authorities (LAs);

Provide well-structured evidence for the LAs to progress through levels of NI188; Create a single unified framework for consultation, engagement and target setting with key

area-wide Local Strategic Partnership (LSP) partners, particularly those working across local authority boundaries, such as the West Yorkshire Fire and Rescue Service, West Yorkshire Police and the NHS. (West Yorkshire Adaptation Plan, 2010)

The Adaptation plan also provides the latest UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) for the Yorkshire and Huber area. These can be found on the website: http://ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk/21708?projections=23723

The following graphs are from the UKCP09, which are the latest climatic projections for the UK, these show the Yorkshire and Humber region, there are no data sets for West Yorkshire as of yet.

Figure 3.1.1. Shows change in mean temperature deg C corresponding with time, starting with 2010-2039 (commonly known as the 2020s) and ending with 2070-2099 (commonly known as the 2080s). Projections for the 10, 33, 50, 67 and 90% probability levels across all 7 overlapping time periods. High Emission Scenario (Business as usual). (UKCP09, 2014)

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Annual change in summer precipitation Projections for Yorkshire and Humber up to 2080

Figure 3.1.2. Shows change in summer precipitation up to 2080. High Emission Scenario. Projections for the 10, 33, 50, 67 and 90% probability levels across all 7 overlapping time periods, starting with 2010-2039 (commonly known as the 2020s) and ending with 2070-2099 (commonly known as the 2080s). (Business as usual). (UKCP09, 2014).

Changes in winter precipitation for Yorkshire and Humber up to 2080

Figure 3.1.3. Shows change in winter precipitation up to 2080. High Emission Scenario. Projections for the 10, 33, 50, 67 and 90% probability levels across all 7 overlapping time periods, starting with 2010-2039 (commonly known as the 2020s) and ending with 2070-2099 (commonly known as the 2080s). (Business as usual). (UKCP09, 2014).

As well as providing climate projections and outlining the impacts West Yorkshire is likely to face within the next 80 years, the West Yorkshire Adaptation Plan provides an in depth report into how Local Strategic Partnerships (LSPs) (such as the Environmental Agency, West Yorkshire Fire and rescue service etc.) are working towards adapting to climate change. To which a risk assessment is

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carried out for six priority sectors that have been identified as being, at greatest risk of climate change. The six sectors are:

Natural Environment Built Environment Transport Utilities Waste Management Health and Social Care

The calculations of each sectors risk are detailed within the West Yorkshire Adaptation Plan, (West Yorkshire Adaptation plan, 2010)

PDF file Website: file:///C:/Users/Samuel/Downloads/West%20Yorkshire%20Adaptation%20Action%20Plan%20(2).pdf

The two reports are considered as extremely reliable sources, as they are both at the forefront and the most up to date pieces of research on climatic impacts in the UK and the Yorkshire Humber area as well as strategies on implementing adaptation methods.

Leeds City Council’s Local Climate Impacts Profile for 2002 – 2008, is a report that outlines the need to adapt. The report aims to identify the threats and opportunities presented by climate change in Leeds, (Leeds City Council, 2008) identifying those areas that are most vulnerable to the weather patterns expected as a result of climate change.

The concept of the LCLIP has been developed by the United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) and has the following aims:

• Provide a database of local severe weather events, highlighting their impacts and consequences;

• Record actions taken in response to current local climate impacts and the effectiveness of these actions.

• Provide information to encourage councils and other organisations to change their current policies and decision-making criteria which are generally short term;

• Raise awareness of local climate impacts, their consequences and adaptation responses;

• Assist in the development of local adaptation responses to the expected local climate conditions.

• Make the longer term data presented in the UKCIP02 climate scenarios more relevant to the local area. (Leeds City Council, 2010)

The programme provides secondary data from previous weather events recorded from 2002-2008 by the media, as well as using the climate projection trends from UKCP09, meteorological data from the Meteorological (MET) Office station in Leeds and the councils own automatic weather station. With this data the magnitude of the risk events can be calculated and analysed to see which risk event Leeds is most vulnerable too. The LCLIP states that; strong winds and floods were the most frequent type of severe weather experienced over the LCLIP study period (See table 2), and were also the events responsible for the highest level of disruption. (LCLIP, 2009)

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Figure 3.1.4. Shows the frequency of severe weather events by type

The programme moves on outlining the actions the West Yorkshire area have already taken for example, a heatwave plan, strategic Flood Risk Assessment (SFRA), Leeds Flood Alleviation Scheme and other various schemes. The report finishes with a summary on what they are plans they are implanting for the futures this includes, the development of a flood visualisation model and development of the UKCP09 weather generator tools to consider the future impact of climate change on Leeds City Council services (Leeds City Council, 2008). Again this secondary data is extremely valuable for me as it provides information on climate risk within Leeds to which I can analyse, as well as gain a greater understanding of the adaptation methods used in Leeds, to which will allow me to gain an insight in how the barriers of implementing adaptation methods are formed and how they can be overcome.

3.2. Research Design

Qualitative research was conducted in the form of questionnaires, interviews and from previously carried out research. The purpose of collecting my data via questionnaire and Interview was so I could obtain the views of the people who worked at the local level in planning and policy, as these people are the ones that understand the barriers the most, as they are dealing with them constantly in trying to implement and develop climate adaptation methods. The interview questions focussed on the impacts Leeds faces, in order to get some background information, and the processes and outcomes of planning at the local-level with reference to climate adaptation. The interviews were conducted on site at the local council offices, as this was the most convenient place for my respondents to meet.

Qualitative data is expressed in words that describe attitudes, feelings, opinions, ideas, customs and beliefs (Denzin & Lincoln 2011). My main source of primary research came from questionnaires as both quantitative and qualitative data was required for this piece of research. (McGuirk & O‟Neill, 2010). The questionnaire I sent out was created on the website ‘Survey Monkey’, it was in two parts and consisted of 12 open and closed format questions. Closed questions (May, 2001) were used in instances where a certain answer was required. Open questions (May, 2001) were used in order to accommodate opinions and the individuals understanding (May, 2001; Gillham, 2000). Open questions where extremely vital for my data collection, as a need to answer my research question involved obtaining views on what where the best ways to reduce climate adaptation barriers at the local level, in order to achieve successful adaptation. Again the use of closed questions allowed me to statistically analyse questions and be able to see easily the most popular responses, for example, Q9 ‘What is the greatest constraint to successful implementation of climate

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change at the local level?’ based on the three options I give, will allow me to see what my respondents think is? The greatest barriers and what they believe is not? As well as open and closed questions, many of the questions within my questionnaire where ‘importance questions’, questions that ask the respondent to rate the importance of a particular issue. I believed that the addition of these questions was significant to help me grasp what things where of importance to my respondents, for example Q11:

What is the most useful way national government can do to help local authorities adapt to a changing climate? Outlining seven barriers, where they have to pick from the five options; Most Important, fairly important, not really important, unimportant, not applicable.

The importance of this Likert question gives the respondent a number of options to think about which therefore entices the respondent, according to Wellman and Farley (1985), to consider things that may not have occurred to them. Although this is a closed format question it was not a problem as my next question allowed them to provide their personal input on this matter, in order to gain a greater understanding. The use of ranked questions made it easy for me to analyse the responses I got, to which I was able to find the most popular answer, for example it allowed me to find what the most popular barrier my respondents thought was the greatest barrier to climate adaptation, however a criticism to ranked questions is that they do not explain why people feel a certain way.

To round off my questionnaire I finished with an open format question, which looks to gain their opinion on what I what answering the most from my questionnaire, which is what other ways can you think of that central government can help local authorities to successfully develop and implement adaptation methods.

The questionnaires were distributed to academic persons whose work is directly or closely associated with climate change at the local-level. They were mainly targeted to those that were involved within implementing and developing climate adaptation methods at the Leeds city Council or Environmental Agency (within Leeds). The purpose of this aspect of the study was to gauge expert opinion. The questionnaire was set up on the Website ‘Survey Monkey’. When creating it I had to create it in two parts, as the website only allowed 10 questions per questionnaire. Therefore when sending it out to my targeted audience, I had to specifically tell them that the questionnaire was in two parts. I sent my questionnaire via email as this was the quickest and easiest way to access the two questionnaires (via link) also sending it out by email gave the added benefit of being able to attempt to incorporate a snowball technique (Wheater & Cook, 2000), whereby respondents would pass on the link to the survey to other work colleagues within that field of study.

The other part of my data collection was via Interview. As interviews encourage greater participation and questions that can be clarified if participants do not understand (Robson, 2002). When conducting my interviews I based the interviews around questions from the questionnaires, however I included more open format questions and tried to get the interviewee to be as open and provide as much data as possible, in order to gain a greater and more accurate understanding, as well as providing the opportunity for the interviewer

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to use supplementary questions to probe more deeply into any interesting relevant comments made by the interviewee (Sapsford & Jupp, 1996). My interview was conducted within an office at the local city council, as this made it easier for my respondent and it was in a quiet area free from distraction. Secondary data played a large role in my data collection, as there have been various reports for example, Porter et al, 2014 ‘The right stuff? Informing Adaptation to Climate Change in British Local Government. Also there have been reports that have been conducted abroad that have looked at overcoming barriers to local-level climate adaptation, reports such as a Norwegian example, written by Helene Mundsen et al, (2010); Overcoming barriers to climate change adaptation- a question of multilevel governance. Also reports from Australia, for example, the Institute of Sustainable Futures at the University of Technology Sydney, provided a background report on the ‘Cross-Scale Barriers to Climate Change Adaptation in Local Government, Australia’ website: http://cfsites1.uts.edu.au/find/isf/publications/geroetal2012climatebarrierslocalgovbackgrd.pdf

As well as data on barriers to adaptation, climate projection data is widely available from reports by MET office such as the UKP09 and UKCP02, this is beneficial as it provides a view of what the climate will be like within the area, which will give us a more clear understanding of what adaptation methods are needed, to which we can direct more attention on the barriers that are likely to affect these given adaptation methods.

3.3. Methodology Limitations

The main limitations within my methodology research design was the lack of respondents from my questionnaires and interviewees. Many of the emails I sent out to where ignored making it difficult to get responses. For future reference I think it would have been better to be more persistent in trying to get responses, although when I did get responses I did ask them if they could forward the questionnaire to other colleagues, however what was to say that they did this.

However from the information I received from respondents provided me with valuable information within climate adaptation at the local level particularly within my interview. As I was able to further delve into the understandings and reasoning’s of their opinions on the matter. It would have been ideal to have gained interviews with a researcher, developer and planner within the local council or Environmental Agency. However this proved difficult as many were unable to do so due to time constraints and an overload of other work. If this study were to be repeated, it would be best to do so with a larger dataset made up of more interviewees and questionnaires, particularly interview respondents. To overcome this problem I have collected a lot of secondary data on the matter, in order to provide me with a more accurate understanding.

Although I focused on keeping my questionnaire short, so it wouldn’t take my respondents too much time to complete in the hope that they would complete it. I would have liked to

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have had more open question format questions within it. To overcome this, within my email I gave my respondents the option, to reply to me with further information on any of the questions they wanted to explain themselves further on. Although I did get a few responses, the majority of respondents didn’t. I thought this would have been the case as it would have taken them extra time to do so. Therefore to overcome this, I believed it would have been better just to have included an extra one or two open format questions.

4. Results and Discussion

4.1. Background and General Awareness for Planning

When looking at achieving my research objective of finding out what are the greatest constraints/barriers to local-level climate adaptation? I believed that there was a need to understand the background of local-level planning for risks and opportunities in Leeds (study area), as well as an understanding of the impacts the city of Leeds faces now and in the future. As this information will give me a greater understanding of how local level governance works and the impacts Leeds faces from climate change. My questionnaire results show that the Local authority in Leeds is mostly concerned about its security of its citizens with 66.7% stating they are ‘very concerned’. From my respondents only 25% said that they were ‘very concerned’ about a changing climate. This shows that within Local Authority climate change is not considered as a major priority like security. However 41.67% state that they are ‘very concerned’ (2nd highest) about being prepared for an extreme weather event, this shows that there is a concern within local authority, but probably not enough for implementation of climate adaptation to be considered high up on the national agenda. Miller et al (1997) point out that climatic events are an important trigger for institutional change. Therefore with an increase in these events within the future, it could lead to climate adaptation being seen as a more serious issue on the national agenda. However I believe this is the wrong way of considering adaptation policy, as I believe we need to focus on a more pro-active approach rather than our current reactive approach to climate adaptation. Here we must understand that within local-level and national level planning policy there are competing agendas and climate change is one of these, in which at the moment within the UK it is consider not as a key concern on the national agenda.

When looking at the impacts of climate change Leeds faces (Yorkshire and Humber), most of my data is collected from UKCP09 as detailed previously in figures 3.1.1, 3.1.2, and 3.1.3. West Yorkshire Adaptation Plan (2010), outlines that West Yorkshire can expect increased annual temperatures, decreased summer rainfall and increased winter rainfall over the next 80 years. The major impacts of these changes for the region will occur with a greater frequency and magnitude in: Flooding Heatwaves Drought Storm intensity/frequency. This ultimately will have a large effect across West Yorkshire in terms of increased: Damage to infrastructure, death rates, pressure on water supply, loss of local biodiversity and influx of new species, decline in air quality, and stress on public services such as transport. Benefits will also arise for example, in the sports, leisure and tourism sectors as a result of generally warmer summer weather. (LCLIP, 2009)

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The maps: Figure 4.1.1 show a change in annual mean temperature (dg^c) based on a high emissions scenario, between 2020’s up to 2080’s. With a 10% probability level.

With temperature increase of 2.6^C (summer) predicted from the 2020’s to 2050’s under a high emission scenario and a projected increase of 4.5^C by the late 2080’s. We can expect an increase in heatwaves and droughts, as well as milder winters. As winter mean temperature is expected to rise by 3.6ºC by 2080 (UKCP09, 2014).

The maps: Figure 4.1.2 shows a percentage change in annual precipitation levels based on a high emissions scenario, between 2020’s up to 2080’s. With a 10% probability level.

In the map 4.1.2. (Right) winter precipitation levels show that there is 5% change in mean precipitation levels throughout the winter periods of the 2020’s. The 2050’s period show a 12% change in mean precipitation level and by 2080 precipitation levels were at change of 20%. This is important to consider as increase in precipitation levels within the winter period can lead to more localised flooding. Therefore adaptation methods must consider the impacts of increased precipitation, particularly as this is the greatest impact Leeds and the UK face from future climate change. Within the summer change in precipitation is likely to decrease by 2080 there is a 10% probability level that it is very unlikely to be less than 28% (UKCP09, 2014). This could lead to increases in droughts, as well as photochemical pollution episodes from road traffic emissions, which will affect the health of people suffering from respiratory illness… also result in high levels of dust and other particulate matter in the air, similarly affecting respiratory health (LCLIP, 2009). One of the most pressing concerns of the effects of climate change within Leeds is heavy downpours causing localised flooding. My data shows that all 13 of my respondents stated that; within the past 3 years Leeds has been significantly affected by Heavy downpours and localised flooding. Previous data of past weather events collected by the LCLIP from media outlets, the EA and their own records also detail, that heavy downpours along with strong winds are the most recognised event responsible for the highest level of disruption. In which trends are beginning to show that these events are becoming ever more frequent and intense. Therefore we must make sure that we have the right infrastructure and services to deal with them proficiently. So by looking at the barriers that restrict the implementation of adaptation methods, it makes it easier for planners and policy makers to implement such methods and achieve successful climate adaptation.

4.2. Barriers to Adaptation

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Once I had gained a bit of background information and an understanding of my respondent’s awareness of the impacts Leeds faces, I moved on to looking at the barriers that appear within climate adaptation. So for example, ‘Q9’ asked my candidates

‘What is the greatest constraint to successful implementation of climate adaptation at the local level?’

Giving the three options of: Lack of information, institutional Limitations and Resource constraints. The response I received I detailed within the graph below. Figure 4.2.1.

Figure 4.2.1 shows how my respondents ranked the three constraints: Lack of information, Institutional Limitations and Resource constraints.

My results from the table indicate that the most popular constraint to successful implementation of climate adaptation at the local-level within Leeds was ‘Resource constraints’, with 11 of the 13 respondents indicating that it was the greatest constraint to local-level climate adaptation here in Leeds. Data from the Porter et al, (2014) report also agrees, with one of he’s respondents sating; ‘without more funding, ring-fenced specifically for adaptation, very little is likely to happen no or any time in the immediate future(Question 15, Respondent 13).

Institutional limitations was second with 15.83% of my respondents stating that they believed it to be the greatest constraint. Whereas not one respondent ranked ‘lack of information’ as the greatest constraint. Porter et al, (2014) also stated within their research that, Far and away the leading barrier to adaptation was funding, which over 96% of survey respondents ranked as ‘Very Important’ or ‘fairly important’. So here we see that financial constraints as the greatest barrier within local-level climate adaptation.

It was interesting to note that institutional limitations was also a clear constraint within my respondents, particularly with my interviewee, although he believed financial restriction where the main concern within the local authority, as they had to hit central government budget cuts; my respondent strongly argued that institutional limitations such as a lack of solid political agenda on climate adaptation was a major reason in limiting the development and implementation of climate adaptation methods at the local. My respondent stated that:

“It seems that under this coalition government, that there is a free market approach to the problem solving at the local and this is seen within the planning for climate adaptation.”

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It should be noted that under the coalition government the national indicators NI188 which acted as targets to climate adaptation within the UK, were abolished and which my respondent stated that he believed that this has hindered the development of climate adaptation methods, as there are no fixed targets for local authorities to aim for. Also within Porter et al (2014), the research they found from their local authority respondents was similar in that, with the abolition of the NI188 targets, several studies have found that LA’s in England are still struggling to develop and implement adaptation plans (Brisley et al2012; Green Allience 2011; Porter et al, 2014; UKCIP 2011). Therefore we see that national government policy must be efficient enough, in order to reduce and overcome the constraints to climate adaptation. More evidence from my research also suggests that central government policy on climate adaptation is not benefiting the way we tackle climate adaptation. As the graph on the following page shows.

Figure 4.2.2 shows the percentage of which my respondents believed if national government policy was beneficial in helping local authority tackling climate change via adaptation.

Therefore when looking at reducing barriers to climate adaptation, institutional limitations in particular policy implementation, is an important factor. However when looking at policy it is important to consider the differing party views between local and national governance, for example my interviewee who was a councillor for the green party had strong and criticising views on the coalition climate adaptation policy, therefore I had to take this into account when considering the bias of my results. However my questionnaire results do suggest similar; in that current national policy is probably not beneficial. So to improve my results it may be beneficial to have an understanding of what political background my respondents have.

It also became apparent from my results that party politics are a barrier within implementation, as my interviewee stated that it’s difficult to get certain policies and strategies etc. passed by people who are in the positions of authority, as they may be of different parties and have differing views. He argued that of recent under the coalition government this has become ever more difficult as he believes;

They are mainly concerned about economic growth forecast and with little consideration to the climate.

Therefore another barrier, in that party politics can deter the implementation of climate adaptation at the local level. This emphasises the need for a strong framework within national policy as it eliminates the uncertainty created within local authority planning.

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The need for a strong policy framework for climate adaptation is further discussed by Burch and Gleick (2010), who sate that a lack of local leadership is frequently explained by missing top-down support. However Crabbe et al, (2006) and Harries et al, (2010) argue that too much from higher levels can also discourage local leadership. My research states this, for example when I asked my respondents if they would like to give other examples of how national government can help local authorities in successfully implementing and developing adaptation methods, many responses included that stronger policy was vital for example, one respondent stated that;

Stronger planning policy, which allows local authorities to plan and implement adaptation methods, climate adaptation has to be a priority within the national agenda

Here and in other data I gained from my respondents, shows that within Leeds and the UK government policy on climate adaptation has taken a back seat under the coalition government. Research from Porter et al, (2014) confirms these claims about a lack of progress, or even a reversal in adaptation activities by LAs. Some 90% (18 of 20) of the LA staff interviewed told us that adaptation was being deprioritised in their LA. So with a lack of emphasis on climate adaptation from central governance, this is arguably hindering the process of adapting to climate change. If climate adaptation is being seen as less of a priority within local level governance due to the lack of policy implementation by central governance this will only create more uncertainty at the local level, to which this uncertainty will further impede as a barrier to adaptation, for example a respondent from Porter et al, (2014) stated that; 75% (15 of 20) of LA staff interviewed agreed that this political uncertainty played into the hands of ‘climate sceptics’ in their councils ‘who are keen to block any spending on climate-related projects’.

This shows that an insufficient policy or lack of political framework from the top will have knock on effects that will severely obstruct climate adaptation.

With lack of political policy and guidance from the top proving to be a pivotal barrier within climate adaptation, the need for a strong policy framework is vital. To which my research specifies that 50% of my respondents stated that the reintroduction of targets such as the NI188 was considered as a ‘most important’ aspect of how national government can help local authorities in adapting to climate change. Within my interview my respondent stated:

I would be in favour of seeing the reintroduction of targets such as the NI188 as this gives local authorities a set guideline to follow and achieve.

This highlights further that without a strong adequate policy and set of goals, planning for climate adaptation will remain restricted and difficult to implement successfully. This also illustrates how much planners, developers and councillors etc. consider policy as an important factor to successful climate adaptation and hence why we have to consider overcoming it has a barrier to climate adaptation.

However from my interview when I questioned my respondent on if he believed the statement that; ‘nothing is happening when it comes to climate adaptation at the local level’ he stated that this was not true and that there were things happening at the local level;

Certain parts of climate adaptation strategies are progressing within local governance for example, flood risk management schemes such as, the Environmental Agencies ‘River Aire Flood Alleviation Scheme’.

Therefore within local level planning are we seeing a streamlining of where and what central government wants local authorities to focus on? I.e. the risks that we are most vulnerable too

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(localised flooding and droughts during the summer). This streamlining approach can be considered a barrier to climate adaptation within itself, as less implementation is being focussed on methods that look to reduce the impacts of events we are less vulnerable too. Within local governance we have to consider that there are competing internal battles for resources and within the past five years this has become ever more difficult as LAs across Britain are under intense financial strain, having endured the steepest budget cuts for more than half a century (NAO 2014). This is arguably the reason we are seeing this streamlining effect within local governance taking place as financial resources are scarce. Eisenack et al, (2014) states that different barriers cannot be understood in isolation. Long term financial shortages give rise to and magnify other barriers such as those stemming from lack of information, inadequate interagency coordination and specific personal beliefs (Lehman, et al 2013; Ebert et al, 2009). Therefore we must understand that barriers are interconnected with one another.

When collecting my results it was interesting to see that there was a planning framework for climate adaptation but little action was being taken to carry out these processes, this was also seen within the research Porter et al, (2014) carried out. Also research collected from an Australian case looking at the barriers to local municipal planning within Australia, Measham et al (2011), one of he’s respondents claimed that;

I think council have accepted it as an issue for planning but we’re still stuck… we need to… make this something that we adhere to. Like to put it in our LEP and actually make some guidelines.

This illustrates further, how important a strong policy framework is, in order to achieve successful climate adaptation and hence why it is important to overcome it has a barrier to climate adaptation.

To understand further what the various institutional barriers local authorities face when adapting to climate change, I asked my respondents to assess the importance of various measures for promoting adaptation. The table to the right shows this, Figure 4.2.3.

As we can see from the responses I received from my questionnaire, my respondents thought that ‘increased funding’ was the most important thing national government could do to help promote adaptation methods. Also from the table we can see; ‘provide greater information about the effects of climate change’ and ‘provide information on how climate change can be beneficial’ was also considered as an important approach national government could do to help promote climate adaptation

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at the local. Provide more information about the effects was also considered as a key barrier. Within my research my respondents believed that they do have enough information to decide whether they should change any of their plans or policies, over 69% saying they do, however within my interview my respondent, agreed that they do have enough information, but argued that they require more information that looks to take into account the monetary aspects of the impacts from climate change along with the potential for opportunities he states;

One of the most important gaps in our knowledge is being able to make a business case to invest in climate change adaptation. With some risks, it is impossible to know exactly where or when they will occur, which obviously makes it difficult to make the case for people and organisations to spend money over other priorities. This is something that we hope the work with the Core Cities will assist with.

Therefore it is not the lack of information that is perceived to be a barrier but the type and quality, particularly for the need to make a business case. However my results do differ from those of Porter et al, (2014) where he states that staffing levels, which respondents flagged as the second most important barrier to adaptation. My results indicate that staffing levels are not considered as too much of an issue at the local, as only 41.67% stated that they are fairly important. To which my results showed that other effects such as ‘provide more information on the effects’ and the ‘reintroduction of targets’ were considered as being of greater importance to help local governance. To which my results indicate that these barriers are considered as a greater barrier than what ‘reduction in staff’ is.

It is important to consider that barriers cannot be understood in isolation (Eisenack et al 2014). Many barriers to climate adaptation come about due to triggers of others, my results and previous research indicates that financial restraints are a fundamental trigger to creating over barriers. As well as the barriers detailed above, the table below details how much my respondents believe would be beneficial to overcoming barriers at the local. Therefore we can use this data to give us an understanding of how and what my respondents consider as the biggest barriers to climate adaptation at the local level. For example here we can see that 50% of my respondents regard the reintroduction of national targets such as NI188 as a ‘most important’ factor to overcoming barriers to climate adaptation. Therefore we can state that lack of or insufficient policy at the local level is a

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fundamental barrier climate adaptation. Also from the table we can consider that providing local councils with information on what the effects will be rather than what they may be is considered as a less proactive approach to helping local government as my results show, therefore indicating that local authorities do have a good understanding of the effects of climate change. To which this indicates that lack of information on effects is not as much of a barrier to climate adaptation nymore, as porter et al, (2014) also indicates that these findings suggest that

LA staff are not only accessing the ‘right’ sources of information about climate change, but they have also developed a 16 technically accurate and institutionally nuanced appreciation of the risks and opportunities that future climate change will hold for their particular LA.

Although local authorities have and are using information on climate effects well, this still does not disagree with what I mentioned previously about the need for information on the monetary aspects of climatic impacts at the local.

It was also interesting to see that the barriers I found the most concerning to local authorities here in Leeds where also the same barriers within other countries for example in Australia, Baker et al, 2012 found that local authorities had a strong awareness of climate impacts like here in Leeds. And he also concludes that; ‘In SEQ, councils showed reluctance to commit to adaptation actions that required on-going financial liabilities, without secure on-going funding’. This shows, like my research, that financial constraints are considered as a fundamental barrier to the implementation of climate adaptation methods. Research conducted in Norway by Amundsen et al, 2010 indicated that the key barrier to implementing climate adaptation methods was lack of data on climate change, lack of local expertise and a lack of a clear role for local governments when working with adaptation policies and methods. He argues that these findings indicate that the lack of focus on adaptation at the national level have in turn led to a lack of attention to these issues at the local level. This illustrates that one certain constraint such as poor policy implementation by the national government can create other barriers or intensify these constraints further.

5. Limitations

Some of the limitations have been discussed previously within my results and analysis section. The main problematic aspect to my report was data availability. Particularly with regard to the lack of interviews I was able to set up. It was difficult to get people who were willing to give up their time for an interview, particularly as many of my target audience were councillors who had busy schedules due to the general and local elections coming up in May. Therefore to overcome this I would recommend to set up interviews months before the deadline. In general it was difficult to get people willing to take an interview as well as people willing to fill out my questionnaire. Therefore again it may have been better to get my questionnaires out earlier and I should have been more persistent in asking the people who had not filled out my questionnaire to do so. With the lack of data I was unable to use quantitative data analysis methods, such as Spearman’s rank and t-test, I believe that with a greater sample size this would allow me to find the relationships between barriers and how they correlate with one another, for example whether someone’s job title would impact there understanding on climate change and their belief on how to overcome these barriers i.e. a councillors understanding of how to overcome barriers to climate change may be different to that of a planner, an environmental officer or researcher. Also I would have been able to compare how the local council and the environmental agency do when it comes to overcoming the barriers and their views on how they believe the matter should be tackled.

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Within my interview my respondent did get slightly side tracked and talked a lot about mitigation techniques, to which this data was slightly useless, therefore for future reference it would be necessary to keep interviews to the point and when my respondent was going off point it may have been necessary to interrupt and get back on track. However this was not a major problem as it did provide me with useful information, as I was able to understand his views and opinions more clearly.

Underestimating how difficult it was to get into contact with my required audiences from the EA and Leeds city council was my biggest downfall and was the reason why my sample size was rather small, although I did use a lot of secondary data to overcome this. But still to increase my sample size it would have been necessary to not underestimate the difficulty in obtaining people willing to give up their time to take an interview.

I think it would have been necessary to have included more questions that gave my respondents an option to provide more detail i.e. questions following with ‘other’ and their response. This would have been useful for the question ‘Rank, What is the greatest constraint to successful implementation of climate adaptation at the local level?’ As this would allow me to gain an insight to other various barriers that are considered a problem at the local.

6. Conclusion

In conclusion, this study had focussed on the study of the barriers to climate adaptation at the local level within the city of Leeds. My report confirms that there are various barriers to the implementation of climate adaptation methods, to which these barriers interlink with one another and likely to give rise to and magnify other barriers. My results showed that local authority planners, councillors environmental officers at the local within Leeds believed that financial restrictions where the greatest implication to the development and implementation of climate adaptation, over 84.62% ranked it has the number one constraint. It was also important to note that financial restraints had deepening effects on other barriers such as lack of information on the impacts of climate change provided by central government, which was noted at the local level within Norway. Also during this time it is important to consider we are going through tough economic times and central government are making large budget cuts at the local, to which budget constraints can become more pressing over time, to which this can make it more difficult other time to obtain that financial support from central governance, as local budgetary priorities are given to other policy issues which are considered more of a concern.

My research highlights the concerns that climate adaptation is not really progressing throughout the local within Leeds and the UK, and it seems the reason for this is the lack of political concern from central governance on climate change. My results indicated that to overcome the impacts of climate change Leeds faces, it is a must that climate adaptation is to be more of a priority on the national agenda, as research from other reports such as

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Porter et al, (2014) and my respondents specifically stated that; Promote the issue on the national agenda - instil a climate change adaptation mantra in decision making and investments.

After five years of budget cuts by the current coalition government, Local Authorities have fewer resources and this has become apparent in the way climate adaptation has become less of a priority, as resources have been reallocated to more important services such as education and health for instance. Within my results it was particularly interesting to see that certain impacts of climate change where being looked at for example, the River Aire Flood alleviation scheme within Leeds, this shows that climate adaptation is happening within Leeds.

Over the years since climate change has become an agenda on national policy we have seen climate adaptation to become more of a priority at the local level. To which barriers within the past where predominately the lack of information and ability to access this information at the local level. But with investments from the UK government which set up the UKCP09, UKCP02, UKCIP, LCLIP’s and adaptation frameworks like the West Yorkshire Adaptation Plan, lack of information or ability to assess and understand this information is no longer a problem at the local. To which now the major barrier to climate adaptation my report indicates is the lack of political support and funding from central governance. For example without more financial and political support from the national government climate adaptation is likely to go no further.

My research therefore provides a good basis to research these barriers further and in which how they can be overcome. In particular it was interesting to see that a strong national policy or framework to force the development and implementation of climate adaptation as a necessity in achieving successful adaptation. For example, several of my respondents indicated that they would like to see climate change be looked at within the long term and not just in the short term as it seems to be at the minute. In particular my respondents specified the need to have targets to keep them on track with achieving successful climate adaptation, to which many stated that the reintroduction of the NI188 targets would be the right step into getting climate adaptation moving within the local again. So, consequently to overcome these barriers to climate adaptation it is vital that climate change is looked at within the long term and is considered as a key priority on the national political agenda, to which there needs to be a strong policy framework that allows the local to initiate adaptation methods and reduce the vulnerability we face from climate change.

Acknowledgements

I would like to give thanks to all of my respondents for completing my questionnaire and particularly my respondent who took the time to be interviewed for the study. I would also like to thank Dr James Porter and research fellow Olivia Rendon for providing me with contacts at the local council and Environmental Agency. Special thanks also goes to Prof. Peter Taylor who was a great hand in supervising the work and providing some much needed feedback and guidance.

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Transcript

1. What is your Job title?

Councillor

2. What department do you work in?

Green party

3. To what extent is your local authority concerned on the following?

Economic downturn: economy in Leeds is vibrant, doing rather well compared to other cities within the UK, therefore I would say that the view of the local authority is concerned however not a major issues, as we seem to be dealing with it rather well.

Being prepared for an extreme event: Very concerned. In particular localised flooding, within the past Leeds has come within inches of the city being completely flooded. There are serious consequences when considering such an event like flooding not just economic. There is no good building all these new developments within the city if we don’t have defences to protect us from such events.

Transport Network Incident: Very concerned. The transport network within Leeds in very vulnerable particularly the road network, we need to improve public transport to get people out of their cars not just for environmental reasons.

Large scale industrial accident: Not very concerned. Leeds is a city that is now very service bsed, so the likelihood of an industrial accident is small, however if I was working within a council such as Sheffield or Rochdale I would be more concerned as they are still dominated by heavy industry.

Health related emergency: Very concerned

Climate Change: As a member of the Green party I am very concerned however the feeling within the local authority is that some are and some are not concerned. I believe that there should be more of a need to take climate change seriously, as it is beneficial to our health and economy. Those who don’t adapt will suffer the most.

Security of its citizens: Not very concerned. The risk has always been there, i.e. it’s not much different from the past when the UK was under threat from dissident republicans.

4. Rank how much your local authority is concerned about the following?

In ranking order 1st to 7th: Economic downturn, natural weather event, health related emergency, security of its citizens, climate change, transport network, industrial accident.

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My respondents goes on to explain that; there should be a greater concern for climate change as the climate and environment is a part of us, without it we couldn’t live and therefore it should be our moral obligation to protect it, particularly because it affects a lot of people and sectors such as the economy.

5. In the last three years has your local authority been significantly affected by any of the events listed?

Wet weather in spring, but mainly heavy downpours causing floods in the summer and winter time, mainly winter time. Dry summers have been an issue howver not a massive issue within the past three years, as well a snowfall.

6. Overall, do you feel that your local authority has enough information to decide whether they should change any of their plans or policies because of climate change?

Yes probably. However I believe that the models we have from the UKCP09 that inform us about the climatic impacts we face, need to keep updating with the very best of science we have at the minute. I think that the science we have at the minute are outperforming the models we have, therefore I believe that climate models do need to improve. Also I believe that there is a need from the central government to provide us with more information about the monetary costs and possible benefits from climate change. The climate projection models need to improve in the way that future projections are based on what is happening now, particularly when considering a storm event for example, when describing a storm event as a 1 in 5 per year or 1 in 100 per year, I don’t think that this is accurate enough as this can happen anytime.

7. Overall, do you feel that national government policy is beneficial in helping local authority to tackling climate change via adaptation?

No definitely not. Under the recent coalition government it seems that central government are saying the right things, to make them look good in the public eye, but are not doing anything about it. They are mainly concerned about economic growth forecast and with little consideration to the climate. I believe that the present government could not improve climate adaptation policy as they don’t understand what they are doing, all they think about is hitting certain targets which are predominantly economic. I think in order to improve national policy is to get more scientist involved in policy implementation, if you look around not many people who are in power have a science related background.

8. Rank, how important are these ‘Resource Constraints’ when developing and implementing climate adaptation methods?

Ranking order: Time, Financial, Facilities and infrastructure, specialised staff, technology

Time and financial are the main constraints, time as political parties change and they have differing views on how to achieve such things, also the longer something takes to achieve the more costly it gets and therefore the more costly it becomes the less likely it is to be given the go ahead, particularly with the budget cuts we have to deal with. Technology is slightly important however not a massive importance, specialised staff at the local level I believe to be of slight importance as they are the ones who know what they are doing and how to achieve it in the best possible ways, there is a need to get the balance right i.e. certain expertise from different fields are required. However too many can lead to a waste of resources.

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9. Rank, what is the greatest constraint to successful implementation of climate adaptation at the local level?

Rank in order: Resource Constraints, Institutional Limitations, and Lack of information

Financial resources will always be the greatest constraint as central government is looking to make local government more efficient in ways of budget spending. However institutional limitations such as the lack of clear policy from national government is an extremely important factor, for example with the abolition of the NI188 targets there is a lack of drive to reducing our vulnerability from climate change, however within local authority we still are trying to achieve these aims but there is nothing telling us that we must achieve these aims, I personally believe that this has led to a little step back from where we was within the past when climate change was considered more of a concern to national and local government. There is also too much interference by central government, they need to do their job by implementing a solid policy and provide the right resources, in order to let local authorities do what they do in implementing and developing certain strategies to curb the risks we face.

10. How much responsibility for managing the impacts of climate change should fall to the following?

I’m a believer that everyone should take responsibility as climate change affects us all.

11. What is the most useful way national government can do to help local authorities to a changing climate?

My respondent indicated that the most important idea were: increase funding, reintroduce national indicators i.e. NI188. He also stated that: provide more information about the effects of climate change, show how climate change can benefit others and say what the effects of climate change will be instead of what they may be, was all fairly important. Whereas he stated that reduce red tape, bureaucracy and increase staffing where not applicable.

I believe that the need for strong central government policy is vital in order to encourage the local to undertake such actions, the need for central and local government to cohere is important in the way that each must know its role, what is expected of it and how to go about achieving it. It is also important that government encourages local authorities to look at the benefits to climate change, as much is focussed on the negatives, by showing local authorities the benefits it can encourage the implementation of such adaptation methods i.e. climate change can be a money earner.

It is also difficult to get acceptance from other people who are in important positions when try to implement something, as they have to consider other things like cost, resources, timing etc. As well as this you have to take into account their views and their party’s views as they are more than likely to be different than yours.

12. What is the current adaptation framework the Leeds city council use under the coalition government?

It seems that under this coalition government, that there is a free market approach to the problem solving at the local and this is seen within the planning for climate adaptation. There’s a do what you want policy approach and the free market will sort it out. This is not effective at all, the government are just making the right noises to look good within the public eye, when in fact little is being done. However at the local even though targets have been abolished we are still trying to achieve them.

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Medical Information

13. My research indicated that Local Authority climate adaptation is at a crisis of ‘almost nothing is happening’ do you agree with the statement?

I disagree with the statement as things are happening but just not enough. I believe that we are not moving forward fast enough and this could be costly. Therefore I believe that central government needs to make climate policy a greater priority on the national agenda. And I would be in favour of seeing the reintroduction of targets such as the NI188 as this gives local authorities a set guideline to follow achieve. However certain parts of climate adaptation strategies are progressing within local governance for example, flood risk management schemes such as, the Environmental Agencies ‘River Aire Flood Alleviation Scheme’ is really taking off. Mainly due to the reason of Leeds being most vulnerable to flooding.

14. Finally, if you would like to add anything extra in how you national government can help LA overcoming barriers and successfully developing and implementing climate adaptation methods?

Climate adaptation has got to be considered as a priority along with other concerns such as the economy and health services. I also think it is key that there should be a greater influence from scientist when creating policies to tackling climate change as they are the ones with the greatest understanding of these impacts and how we can reduce our vulnerability from these risks. Also I believe it is the national governments need to promote the benefits of climate change to local authorities more and promote it to the public.

Risk Assessment Form

Fieldwork Risk Assessment (Low Risk Activities)

Fieldwork Project Details

Faculty

School/Service

Earth and Environment

Location of Fieldwork Civic Hall, Leeds

Brief description of Fieldwork activity and purpose

One on one Interview, part of 3rd year dissertation

Organiser Details Contact details

Name, email, telephone

Fieldwork Activity Organiser / Course Leader

Ian Burke/Peter Taylor

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Medical Information

Departmental Co-ordinator Ian Burke/Peter Taylor

Nature of visit

Size of Group, lone working, staff, postgraduate, undergraduate

Undergraduate, Dissertation Interview

Participant Details

Attach information as separate list if required

Contact details

Name, Address, email, telephone, Next of Kin contact details

Samuel Sayer

13 Whiteside AveHindley

Wigan

WN2 2SB

[email protected]

07715888991

Mother: Elaine Sayer

(Address above)

07935172204

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mailto:[email protected]


Medical Information

HAZARD IDENTICATION

Identify all hazards specific to fieldwork trip and activities, describe existing control measures and identify any further measures required.

HAZARD(S) IDENTIFIED CONTROL MEASURES

(e.g. alternative work methods, training, supervision, protective equipment)

Nature of the site

School, college, university, remote area, laboratory, office, workshop, construction site, farm, etc

Council Office,3rd floor of the civic hall, Leeds

Transport

Mode of transport

N/A

Violence

potential for violence (previous incidents etc)

N/A

Individual(s)

medical condition(s), young, inexperienced, disabilities etc

N/A

Work Pattern

time and location e.g. shift work, work at night

Meeting scheduled for 2pm-3pm, City centre location, Leeds, 3rd floor East, Civic Hall

Other

e.g. temperature, humidity, confined spaces

N/A

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Medical Information

Additional Control Measures

Pre-departure Briefing

Carried out and attended

Spoke to dissertation tutor, Peter Taylor

Dissertation lecturer: Ian Burke

Training

Identify level and extent of information; instruction and training required consider experience of workers

Interview Preparation/technique

Supervision

Identify level of supervision required e.g. full time, Periodic telephone/radio contact

None

Other Controls

e.g. background checks for site visits

N/A

Identify Persons at Risk

This may include more individuals than the fieldwork participants e.g. other employees of partner organisations

Copy of other Organisation’s risk assessment attached?

N/A

Additional Information

relevant to the one working activity including existing control measures; information instruction and training received, supervision, security, increased lighting, emergency procedures, first aid provision etc.

N/A

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Medical Information

Residual RiskIs the residual risk acceptable with the identified controls?

Yes

No /

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Documents

Samuel Sayer