Advan tages of a Scenario Planning It challenges managers and other stakeholders to think in creative and forward-looking terms beyond the normal 1-2 year business plan approach; It questions assumptions about the future, and about the drivers and forces that influence a specific sector of activity; It draws upon resources within a company as well as within its wider stakeholder group: shareholders, suppliers, customers, regulators, etc.; It fosters group work, communication and planning within the company, as the nomination of the scenario planning group must rely on different stakeholders; It complements and illuminates standard strategic planning. It helps to see the bigger picture of where their organisation could be in the future. This be very inspirational, and helps to see the day to day urgent business from a wider scope. Discussing the implications of scenarios enables people to talk about how they see the future. This reveals the differences in a group in a non-threatening way, because the subject is hypothetical futures. A frequent reaction to scenarios is, “no way, this would never happen!”. However, these extreme responses are often very valuable. It reveals resistance and blind spots in your thinking. Because scenarios are hypothetical, people can discuss the consequences while still believing that it won’t ever happen. However, this discussion not only prepares their strategic thinking about this future, it also helps to analyse people’s resistance to a particular scenario and open their eyes for blind spots. Scenario planning revitalises people’s imagination, which is still there deep down in everyone. Imagination of what the future may hold enables the organisation to discuss and anticipate more of these possibilities. Scenario planning enables an organisation to discuss the early warnings of a wide range of black swan events. Things that might not have been on the table in regular board room meetings.

Scenario Planning

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Advan tages of a Scenario Planning

It challenges managers and other stakeholders to think in creative and forward-looking terms beyond the normal 1-2 year business plan approach;

It questions assumptions about the future, and about the drivers and forces that influence a specific sector of activity;

It draws upon resources within a company as well as within its wider stakeholder group: shareholders, suppliers, customers, regulators, etc.;

It fosters group work, communication and planning within the company, as the nomination of the scenario planning group must rely on different stakeholders;

It complements and illuminates standard strategic planning. It helps to see the bigger picture of where their organisation could be in the future. This be very inspirational, and helps to see the day to day urgent business from a wider

scope. Discussing the implications of scenarios enables people to talk about how they see the

future. This reveals the differences in a group in a non-threatening way, because the subject is hypothetical futures.

A frequent reaction to scenarios is, “no way, this would never happen!”. However, these extreme responses are often very valuable. It reveals resistance and blind spots in your thinking. Because scenarios are hypothetical, people can discuss the consequences while still believing that it won’t ever happen. However, this discussion not only prepares their strategic thinking about this future, it also helps to analyse people’s resistance to a particular scenario and open their eyes for blind spots.

Scenario planning revitalises people’s imagination, which is still there deep down in everyone. Imagination of what the future may hold enables the organisation to discuss and anticipate more of these possibilities.

Scenario planning enables an organisation to discuss the early warnings of a wide range of black swan events. Things that might not have been on the table in regular board room meetings.

Disadvantages of Scenario planning

• This approach is not as well known • Not many charities or not-for-profits do it • May absorb energy on unlikely possibilities