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TUES, OCT 10 TOURISM VISIONING & SCENARIO PLANNING
EVENT
WED, OCT 11 TOURISM PLANNING
WORKSHOP
TUES, NOV 14 CULTURAL HERITAGE & AGRITOURISM
WORKSHOP
TUES, NOV 14 CULTURAL HERITAGE & RECREATION
NETWORKING EVENT
WED, NOV 15 ADVENTURE TRAVEL & OUTDOOR RECREATION
WORKSHOP
TUES, DEC 5 TOURISM MARKETING & COMMUNICATIONS
WORKSHOP
WED, DEC 6 TEAMING FOR ACTION
WORKSHOP
WED, DEC 6 COMMUNITY TOURISM CELEBRATION
EVENT
ROLES• CEO of Eco Development Corporation
• Executive Director – Destination Marketing
Organization
• 1 x elected official from St Joseph
• 1 x elected official from Quail Valley
• BLM representative
Steps in playing the game
• Forward from 2010 to 2030
• Four game steps (2010, 2012, 2015, 2020, then 2030)
• At each step you will…..– Get map, decision sheet and big event card
– Discuss and debate decision (about 8-10 minutes)
– Choose 1 of the 2 options
– Record on decision sheet
– Hand in decision sheet – receive next one
Key forces/drivers shaping the future of the region
• Population Growth and Pressure (Demographic Trends/Flight from Coastal Areas)
• Energy Cost/Availability
• Resource Management – water, timber, preservation/utilization
• Land Use Planning
• Economic Gaps/Disparity
• Educational Inequality
• Lack of skilled workers
• Telecommunication/Technology Education – e-commerce
• Public Lands Policy
• Infrastructure
• Embracing our youth
• Food Production Systems
• Global Economic Trends
• Emergence of Regional Community
• Reinvesting in Local Communities
• Connectivity
• Civic Engagement
• Child Poverty
• Climate Change
• Sustaining Sense of Place
Summary deliberations – Northern Idaho
Regional scenario shaping clusters of drivers
Stewarding the Place• Food production systems
• Land use planning
• Preservation and utilization of resources (timber /water)
• Infrastructure (housing / sewer / roads)
• Public Lands Policy
Investing in people • Civic engagement and leadership transition
• Educational inequalities
• Reinvestment in communities
• Child poverty
• Embracing our youth
• Emergence of regional community
• Economic gap /disparity
Regional Scenario Shaping Clusters of Drivers – Northern Idaho
• Lack of product
• Lack of facilities like hotels, lack of
restaurants, tour companies
• Lack of transportation services
• Provide more product – recreation,
food, arts, heritage
• Encourage longer stays
• Develop unified brand and tourism
messaging
What is
Scenario
Planning?
A tool best used to
embrace an uncertain
future
Explores a range of
plausible futures
Allows for the
consideration of
complex and
interrelated forces
Explore Trends and Implications for tourism
industry
‘Drivers’ Shaping Klamath Basin’
Develop four
plausible scenarios
Implications for the
Klamath Basin
Preferred Future and
action planning
Importance / Uncertainty matrix
Rate each driver on a 1 – 5 scale
(1=low; 5=high)
Driver Importance Uncertainty
Local economic development efforts
Energy and fuel costs
Cost of living
Suitably trained local workforce
Regional population changes
Aging population
Regional collaboration and engagement
Local access to services such as healthcare
Quality of life in region
Regional transport infrastructure
Government regulation and
funding
Impacts of climate change and natural disasters
Management of natural resources and biodiversity
Land use planning
Lodging developments
Access to information and communication
technology
Regional recreation infrastructure
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00
Un
ce
rta
inty
Importance
RTS Klamath Basin - Scenario Shaping Clusters of Drivers
Ability to leverage our human capacity• Regional collaboration and engagement
• Local economic development efforts
• Quality of life in the region
• Suitably trained local workforce
Regional tourism and economic infrastructure• Lodging Developments
• Regional recreation infrastructure
• Access to information and communication technology
• Regional transport infrastructure
Regional scenarios based on two scenario shaping clusters
Scenario BScenario A
Scenario D Scenario C
Regional tourism and economic infrastructure
Ab
ilit
y t
o leve
rag
e
h
um
an
cap
acit
y
Lack of critical
infrastructures
to support
viable tourism
industry
Fragmented and disjointed
efforts with conflicting priorities.
Well resourced
local tourism
and economic
infrastructures
Effective planning. collaboration
and actions that are anchored in
local values, aspirations and skills.
Scenario name and brief description_______________
Social Characteristics
Economic Characteristics
Environmental Characteristics
Suggested Scenario Group timeline
• Group meet and scope-out scenario (15m)
• Develop characteristics (30m)
• Headline News and (10m)
• Short scenario name (5m)
• Return to main room ready to present
Regional scenarios based on two scenario shaping clusters
Scenario BScenario A
Scenario D Scenario C
Regional tourism and economic infrastructure
Ab
ilit
y t
o leve
rag
e
h
um
an
cap
acit
y
Lack of critical
infrastructures
to support
viable tourism
industry
Fragmented and disjointed
efforts with conflicting priorities.
Well resourced
local tourism
and economic
infrastructures
Effective planning. collaboration
and actions that are anchored in
local values, aspirations and skills.
Regional scenarios based on two scenario shaping clusters
XXXX
XX XX
Regional tourism and economic infrastructure
Ab
ilit
y t
o leve
rag
e
h
um
an
cap
acit
y
Lack of critical
infrastructures
to support
viable tourism
industry
Fragmented and
disjointed efforts with
conflicting priorities.
Well resourced
local tourism
and economic
infrastructures
Effective planning. collaboration
and actions that are anchored in
local values, aspirations and skills.
Scenario A
Scenario D
Scenario B
Scenario C
KLAMATH BASIN RURAL TOURISM STUDIO
InstructionsOn the grid at the left, please use the following point assignments to rate the preferred and expected futures.
EXPECTED FUTURE Please assign to the grid a E1 in the cell you view as the mostly likely expected future, if nothing changes.
PREFERRED FUTURE Please assign to the grid a P1 in the cell that represents your most preferred future in 2030.
Regional tourism and economic infrastructureA
bil
ity t
o levera
ge
h
um
an
cap
acit
y
Regional scenarios based on two scenario shaping clusters
XXXX
XX XX
Regional tourism and economic infrastructure
Ab
ilit
y t
o leve
rag
e
h
um
an
cap
acit
y
Lack of
critical
infrastructur
es to support
viable
tourism
industry
Fragmented and
disjointed efforts with
conflicting priorities.
Well resourced
local tourism
and economic
infrastructures
Effective planning. collaboration
and actions that are anchored in
local values, aspirations and skills.
XX
XX
XX
XX
XXXX
XXXX